An Educated Guess

An Educated Guess, by neuroscientist and author Jeroen van Baar, explores societal challenges through a scientific lens. It delves into climate change, mental health, economic inequality, and the impact of modern lifestyles, aiming to make complex academic insights accessible and relevant to everyday life.

Climate Change Mental Health Economic Inequality Modern Lifestyles Data Visualization Social Science Nutrition Political Polarization Public Health Social Connection

The hottest Substack posts of An Educated Guess

And their main takeaways

The Hidden Cost Of Unreliable Insurance

290 implied HN points • 29 Jan 25
🏥 Health Politics Health Insurance Public Health Mental health Healthcare policy
  1. Profit-driven health insurance can harm people's health instead of helping them. When companies prioritize making money, they can exploit their customers.
  2. Trust is really important in health insurance. If people feel taken advantage of, they won't believe their insurance will truly support them when they need it.
  3. Having health insurance can provide peace of mind and improve mental health. Just knowing you're covered can help reduce anxiety and depression, but many profit-driven plans don't offer this sense of security.

Compress your life, feel better

58 implied HN points • 08 Nov 24
🏥 Health & Wellness Mental health Stress management Self-Improvement Productivity
  1. Being busy can make life feel overwhelming and less enjoyable. Many people feel they can't fit in fun or self-care because they're too occupied.
  2. Using a tech concept called compression can help manage daily tasks better. If tasks are repetitive or similar, your brain can handle them more easily, kind of like how a ZIP file works.
  3. Stress isn't just about how much work you have. It's also about how tasks are organized and whether they're predictable, which can make a big difference in how we experience our day.

Why I'm moving my research online

406 implied HN points • 06 Oct 23
  1. The world is facing a metacrisis reflecting deeper societal issues underlying current challenges like artificial intelligence, climate change, and political polarization.
  2. Traditional academic research in fields like psychology faces challenges like replication crisis and lack of real-world applicability, prompting the need for a new approach.
  3. A new kind of participatory social science is needed, focusing on real-world application, embracing complexity, and involving stakeholders in the research process.

Data dispatch #1

348 implied HN points • 29 Sep 23
  1. Effective data visualizations can change how we perceive information.
  2. It's important to carefully interpret relative data and consider the context of the information presented.
  3. Innovative ways of visualizing data, like animated graphics, can provide engaging insights.
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Are social media bad for mental health? It's the wrong question.

174 implied HN points • 12 Mar 24
🏥 Health & Wellness Mental health Epidemiology Social media Public Health Wellbeing
  1. The impact of social media on mental health is a complex issue that cannot be simplified to a dose-response relationship.
  2. The understanding of social media's effect on mental health can benefit from incorporating different epidemiological paradigms like sanitation, infection, chronic disease, and eco-epidemiology.
  3. Social media is not just a risk factor but an environment that plays a crucial role in shaping various behaviors and experiences, especially for young people.

New year, new ways to connect

232 implied HN points • 06 Jan 24
  1. The author reflects on their newsletter journey and plans for the future in 2024.
  2. Social connection is highlighted as important both personally and in research.
  3. The author aims to foster connections with readers through video meet-ups and engaging conversations.

A new beginning

348 implied HN points • 21 Sep 23
  1. The author shares stories that pivot perspectives on current issues.
  2. The newsletter aims to make academic insights accessible and applicable by linking them to challenges in everyday life.
  3. The author intends to build a community of curious, like-minded readers through regular publication and engaging with comments.

Data dispatch #4: the falling nutritional value of crops

217 HN points • 15 Dec 23
  1. Vegetables are less nutritious today, so we may need to eat more to get the same nutrients.
  2. Modern farming practices have led to larger crop yields, but lower mineral content in crops.
  3. Micronutrient malnutrition is a global issue, especially in low-income countries.

8 weeks in: a word of thanks

232 implied HN points • 17 Nov 23
  1. The author expresses gratitude for the engagement of their subscribers just 8 weeks after starting their newsletter.
  2. The author had active engagements in science communication this week, including a Twitter role and a radio interview.
  3. The author highlighted the topic of achievement anxiety among young children and shared insights and potential solutions on the issue.

Data dispatch #3: Sitting *alone* is the new smoking

232 implied HN points • 27 Oct 23
  1. Sitting for long hours can be harmful, but daily movement can offset the negative effects.
  2. Social isolation has negative impacts on mental and physical health, comparable to smoking.
  3. Creating a more equal society with a relaxed work culture can enhance social connection and overall health.

Data dispatch #5: does money make you happy?

116 implied HN points • 19 Jan 24
  1. Money does correlate with greater day-to-day emotional well-being, up to a certain income level.
  2. Money is not the only factor influencing happiness; there are other, more effective ways to boost happiness than pursuing a high-paying job.
  3. There is a consistent positive relationship between income and eudaimonic happiness, with high wages potentially anchoring life satisfaction through social status.

The mental health crisis is not a natural disaster

174 implied HN points • 22 Sep 23
  1. Mental illness can often be prevented and should be treated as such.
  2. Investing in basic needs like income security and housing can help prevent mental health issues.
  3. Collaboration between government sectors and evidence-based preventative programs are key to addressing mental health problems.

The perplexing potential of placebos

116 implied HN points • 22 Dec 23
  1. Expectations are powerful and can influence our experiences and behaviors.
  2. Placebos can have real effects, showing the power of our imagination and beliefs on our well-being.
  3. By understanding and utilizing the placebo effect, we can improve our quality of life and support others effectively.

The world has a bundle on its head

116 implied HN points • 20 Oct 23
  1. Acknowledging uncomfortable truths about ourselves is essential for personal growth.
  2. Our self-concept influences how we perceive and act upon problems in our lives.
  3. Optimism can help us update our self-concept and address challenges with a positive perspective.

Three key insights from the NIMH global mental health conference

58 implied HN points • 03 Nov 23
  1. Treatment gap in mental health exists globally, mainly due to implementation issues rather than lack of effective treatments.
  2. Climate change impacts mental health significantly and should be integrated into global health discussions.
  3. Social determinants like poverty play a big role in mental health, and addressing these factors can improve population mental health.

Why far-right Wilders won the Dutch election

11 HN points • 01 Dec 23
  1. Far-right parties can gain popularity even in economically prosperous countries like the Netherlands.
  2. Inequality, rather than economic hardship, can fuel intolerance and anti-immigration sentiments.
  3. Feelings of precarity, especially among the younger generation, can drive support for populist parties focused on 'livelihood security'.

The lower middle class isn't middle-class anymore

4 HN points • 02 Feb 24
  1. The lower middle class in the US has experienced stagnant or declining health, wealth, and life expectancy since the 1990s
  2. Being in the middle class used to mean having discretionary income for investing in a better future, but that's changing
  3. There are now two middle classes - the upper middle class is experiencing growth, while the lower middle class is facing declining resources and health outcomes

Are we living in an uncertainty epidemic?

2 HN points • 10 Nov 23
  1. Uncertainty is a significant issue of our time, affecting politics, mental health, and global economics.
  2. Economic uncertainty has been on the rise since 2000, influencing global economic trends and impacting individuals.
  3. Geopolitical power shifts and environmental challenges contribute to growing uncertainty, raising concerns about resource scarcity and conflict.

What a legendary economist got wrong—and right—about our "economic problem"

0 implied HN points • 14 Jan 24
  1. Life isn't supposed to be extremely stressful; we are capable of reducing stress by providing for everyone
  2. Keynes predicted the 'economic problem' would be solved by now, leading to more leisure time, but that didn't happen
  3. As we solve economic problems, other societal issues become more prominent and need addressing