OSINT & Analysis by Oliver Alexander

OSINT & Analysis by Oliver Alexander focuses on Open Source Intelligence and analysis, specifically scrutinizing current events, geopolitical maneuvers, and notably, the Nord Stream pipeline sabotage. It critically examines narratives around the sabotage, employing satellite imagery, AIS data, and OSINT methods to debunk or question various claims and report naval activities.

Open Source Intelligence Geopolitical Analysis Nord Stream Pipeline Naval Military Movements Current Events Commentary Social Media Platform Policies Substack Platform Use

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Official Russian Reaction to the SS-750 Story and Possible Submarine Activity Near Nord Stream

150 implied HN points • 09 May 23
🌍 World Politics Investigation
  1. Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs reacted comically to SS-750 story near Nord Stream, implying possible involvement in sabotage.
  2. Investigation suggests Russian submarines, like Ufa (B-588), may have been linked to Nord Stream sabotage, raising questions on exact methods.
  3. Presence of SS-750 and Ufa (B-588) contributes to suspicion on Russia's role in Nord Stream attacks, with Ufa's extended sea stay and submarine activity being noteworthy.

Blowing Holes in Seymour Hersh's Pipe Dream

165 HN points • 10 Feb 23
  1. Seymour Hersh's detailed story about the Nord Stream pipeline operation has numerous holes and inconsistencies.
  2. The involvement of Norwegian military assets in the operation does not align with the evidence of their activities during that time.
  3. Details in Hersh's story, such as the use of specific ships and equipment, are refuted by available satellite imagery and AIS data.
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The Minerva Julie: Unknowing Cover?

122 implied HN points • 12 Mar 23
🌍 World Politics International relations Sabotage
  1. The Minerva Julie, a Greek tanker, had suspicious movements near Nord Stream sites, raising questions about possible ties to Russian oil.
  2. There were signs of submarine activity near the Nord Stream pipeline, with naval vessels like USS Kearsarge and German ships conducting operations.
  3. The possibility that vessels like the Minerva Julie were used unknowingly to mask a submarine's involvement in the pipeline sabotage adds complexity to the situation.

Accounting for the KMN Hinnøy during BALTOPS22

77 implied HN points • 18 Feb 23
🌍 World Politics Military
  1. The KMN Hinnøy was the only "Alta-class" equivalent vessel present in the Baltic Sea during BALTOPS22.
  2. AIS data and satellite imagery were used to account for the KMN Hinnøy during BALTOPS22.
  3. The KNM Hinnøy remained in formation with other NATO ships during the exercise, making it unlikely for abnormal activities.

Despite Deferring to the European Investigations, U.S. Destroyers Appear to Have Inspected All Nord Stream Sabotage Sites.

66 implied HN points • 12 Mar 23
🌍 World Politics Investigations Sabotage
  1. The U.S. has likely inspected all Nord Stream sabotage sites with its destroyers, even though they defer to European investigations publicly.
  2. Evidence suggests that U.S. destroyers conducted first-hand investigations at the Nord Stream locations in Denmark and Sweden.
  3. There may not have been official announcements, but direct investigations by U.S. Navy destroyers likely took place near the suspected Nord Stream sabotage sites.

Danish Defence Command Confirms Russian Minisub Equipped SS-750 at Site of Nord Stream Blasts 4 Days Prior

15 HN points • 27 Apr 23
🌍 World Politics Military Diplomacy Intelligence Conflict Security
  1. Russian minisub SS-750 was confirmed near Nord Stream sabotage sites, implicating Russia's involvement.
  2. Danish Defence Command took photos of the Russian SS-750 at the sabotage site but couldn't release them due to intelligence value.
  3. Russian submarines were in the Baltic Sea around the time of the explosions, raising the possibility of a Russian submarine being present near the sabotage site.

Is the Akademik Cherskiy to Blame for the Southern Nord Stream 2 Rupture?

3 HN points • 26 Feb 23
🌍 World Politics International relations Infrastructure Energy Security Geopolitics
  1. The Akademik Cherskiy may have been responsible for the poor workmanship leading to the Southern Nord Stream 2 rupture.
  2. Explosives planted on Nord Stream 1 may have accelerated a plan to destroy the pipeline upon discovery after the initial rupture.
  3. There are suspicions about the involvement of various vessels and technical issues in connection to the ruptures on the Nord Stream pipelines.