The hottest Military Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways

China is quietly looking weaker

Noahpinion • 20000 implied HN points • 21 Mar 26

🌍 World Politics Military

China's industrial policy and new economic model are hitting practical limits, which could slow growth and make future technological catch-up harder.
The rapid rise of AI agents is eroding China’s defensible tech advantages and reducing the effectiveness of state-led strategies to maintain dominance.
Xi Jinping’s growing paranoia and tighter political control are hurting governance and innovation, and signs of military weakness suggest China’s geopolitical power may be less durable than commonly assumed.

It's Unethical To Have Sympathy For Israelis, And Other Notes

Caitlin’s Newsletter • 1974 implied HN points • 22 Mar 26

🌍 World Politics Military

The piece argues that one should never express sympathy for Israelis because, it claims, Israel habitually weaponizes sympathy to justify mass atrocities, so withholding sympathy is framed as the responsible choice.
It warns that US and Israeli threats against Iran—especially attacks on energy infrastructure—risk escalating into a far larger, potentially catastrophic war and need to be restrained.
It criticizes Western media and political hypocrisy for being shocked by Iranian retaliation while ignoring prior aggression, and calls for mass protests against the US-Israeli war policies.

SITREP 10/28/24: Russia Unleashes Lightning Advances in South as 'Red Scare' Hits Fever Pitch

Simplicius's Garden of Knowledge • 13388 implied HN points • 29 Oct 24

🌍 World Politics Military

The situation in Ukraine is escalating with new claims of North Korean troop involvement, but there are doubts about the validity of these reports. It seems like a way to either justify war actions or divert attention from failures.
Russian forces are making significant territorial gains in the south, suggesting they are currently in a strong position. This pressures Ukraine to maintain its last strongholds and potentially call for more foreign assistance.
The European and American media narratives seem increasingly disconnected from reality. There are worries that misinformation and exaggerated claims are leading to misunderstanding and escalation of the conflict.

Kiel Institute Report on Ukraine War Manufacturing: A Deep Dive

Simplicius's Garden of Knowledge • 8572 implied HN points • 22 Oct 24

🌍 World Politics Military

Russia's military production is increasing rapidly, even surpassing the losses they faced in Ukraine. This means they are becoming stronger despite the conflict.
Ukraine's air defense is not as effective as reported, with lower interception rates than the government claims. This highlights a gap between what is being communicated and the reality on the ground.
Germany's military capabilities are struggling to keep up, and in some areas, they are declining. They would need up to 100 years to rebuild their military stockpiles to past levels, in stark contrast to Russia's quick production capabilities.

Midweek Update #3: For Now, This Looks Like Obama-Minus (And Trump Minus-Minus)

Phillips’s Newsletter • 301 implied HN points • 25 Mar 26

🌍 World Politics Military

Iran controls the Persian Gulf and the Straits of Hormuz, so the U.S. currently lacks leverage and must either escalate militarily or offer big concessions despite public claims of victory.
Seizing Kharg Island might hurt Iran's oil exports on paper, but holding it would be risky, logistically vulnerable, could fail to force concessions, and would likely spike oil prices and widen the war.
Threatening to destroy Iran's power plants was an extreme, possibly unlawful move that signaled desperation, weakened the U.S. negotiating position, and increased the risk of dangerous escalation.

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THE SWAMP LOG: Dire Strait, Pentagon Bans Cartoons, Little Marco's Big Shoes

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 1934 implied HN points • 16 Mar 26

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Military

The president is pushing allied countries and China to send warships to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, since about 20% of the world’s oil passes through it.
Major partners like Japan and Australia have declined and the UK is noncommittal, so China’s decision could make or break a planned summit and put strain on NATO relations.
Iran’s actions are already squeezing global energy supplies, and the narrowness of the strait makes tankers vulnerable to cheap weapons, though a wider crisis has been avoided so far.

How Israel Is Hunting Members of the Iranian Regime

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 811 implied HN points • 18 Mar 26

🌍 World Politics Military

Israel has escalated operations against Iranian regime officials, with the Israeli Air Force operating over Tehran and strikes growing more daring and consequential.
Iran’s leadership was caught off guard because it behaved like a conventional state and underestimated the risk, unlike groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah that accept becoming targets when they attack Israel.
Top Iranian security figures are taking extreme precautions—moving frequently and avoiding predictable patterns—to avoid being targeted.

Niall Ferguson: This Is How the Iran War Goes Global

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 899 implied HN points • 16 Mar 26

🌍 World Politics Military

This conflict highlights heavy use of drones and AI for targeting, showing that modern wars are increasingly fought with autonomous and precision technologies.
A relatively weaker Iran can still choke tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, cutting oil and gas supplies, pushing energy prices up, and threatening the global economy; outside powers have moved naval and Marine forces to try to reopen the route.
Maritime choke points like Hormuz, the Black Sea straits, Malacca, and the Suez and Panama canals are perennial strategic vulnerabilities, and threats to them can create wide-ranging unintended consequences and strategic openings for rivals like China and Russia.

Are We Winning the War in Iran? Plus. . .

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 329 implied HN points • 19 Mar 26

🌍 World Politics Military

The war has escalated with strikes and the targeted killing of senior Iranian figures, and leaders are debating whether a decisive military victory is even possible.
The conflict is already spilling into the global economy and region—oil prices are surging, major energy sites have been hit, and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted.
The fight is politically fraught and uncertain: U.S. officials face pressure and resignations, intelligence describes Iran as degraded but intact, and experts disagree whether decapitating the regime will topple it or reveal its resilience.

How Israel Is Helping Iran’s Opposition

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 380 implied HN points • 19 Mar 26

🌐 International Military

Israel is actively targeting Iranian security forces blamed for killing protesters, aiming to weaken those who crushed demonstrations.
Israeli forces may provide air cover if another uprising breaks out, suggesting readiness to intervene more directly during future protests.
This pattern shows Israel moving beyond diplomatic support toward clearer military or covert backing for Iran’s opposition.

New Issue Of JOHNSTONE: They're Going To Keep Lying About This War The Entire Time

Caitlin’s Newsletter • 1075 implied HN points • 15 Mar 26

🌍 World Politics Military

The government and mainstream media are repeatedly lying about this war, inventing or mischaracterizing events like missile strikes, nuclear threats, and casualty figures. They use those lies to build support for military action.
These deceptions expose the true nature of imperial power and the plutocrats who run it, showing that they prioritize control and violence over democracy or human rights. Their actions reveal hypocrisy and a willingness to harm others to keep power.
The proper response is skepticism and refusal to accept pro-war narratives at face value, so people should stop trusting leaders and outlets that push warmongering propaganda. Demand accountability, question official claims, and resist being rallied into war.

Weekend Update #177: Russian Losses And Ukrainian Fighting

Phillips’s Newsletter • 341 implied HN points • 22 Mar 26

🌍 World Politics Military

Ukrainian forces have reorganized around drone-based units and new doctrine, using UAVs (including fibre-optic controlled drones) to inflict record Russian casualties while keeping Ukrainian soldiers safer.
The U.S. policy shift has effectively eased pressure on Russia—lifting or reducing sanctions, opening trade channels for Belarus, and publicly downplaying support for Ukraine—signaling weaker American backing for Kyiv.
Ukraine has escalated long-range drone strikes deep into Russian territory against refineries, factories, and logistics hubs, demonstrating increased reach and prompting Russian officials to admit growing vulnerabilities.

Roundup #76: Great Powers acting stupid

Noahpinion • 24882 implied HN points • 26 Jan 26

🌍 World Politics Military

Political movements that flout the law and reject scientific expertise are causing deadly enforcement actions and undermining public health. This anti‑science stance is also driving vaccine hesitancy and weakening biomedical research and innovation.
A sweeping purge of senior military leaders concentrates power but removes experienced commanders, risking instability and reducing military effectiveness. That personalistic control could hurt long‑term strategic strength and decision‑making.
India is rapidly building scientific capacity and electrification industries, positioning itself to become a major global electrotech manufacturer. Its large domestic market and supportive policies give it a good chance to leapfrog other powers.

Fuck Everyone Who Made This War Possible

Caitlin’s Newsletter • 4805 implied HN points • 28 Feb 26

🌍 World Politics Military

The US and Israel have launched a major military attack on Iran, prompting retaliatory strikes and likely causing widespread death and suffering.
Many people see the official reasons for this war as false and believe powerful leaders and institutions are pushing it forward regardless of public consent or the horrific consequences.
There is raw anger and total condemnation directed at the US, Israel, political parties, the media, and the military‑industrial complex, who are being blamed for enabling and profiting from the war.

The US Soldiers Killed In This War Were Not Heroes, And Other Notes

Caitlin’s Newsletter • 2514 implied HN points • 07 Mar 26

🌍 World Politics Military

The US soldiers killed in the Iran war did not die defending ordinary Americans but advancing elite geostrategic interests. Calling them heroes encourages recruitment and falsely frames an aggressive, harmful war as righteous.
Leaders keep promising quick endings while military planners are preparing for a protracted conflict lasting months; don’t trust rosy, short-timeline assurances.
Left-wing resistance has been weakened by pro-regime-change voices and diaspora figures pushing for bombing, but people should not defer to those voices or be silenced. Those who ask for their homeland to be bombed don’t grasp the real horrors it brings, so strong public opposition is needed.

Donald Trump Says You Can’t Negotiate with Terrorists

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 510 implied HN points • 16 Mar 26

🌍 World Politics Military

The U.S. is trying to internationalize its conflict with Iran by rallying other countries to keep the strategic Strait of Hormuz open and safe.
Trump is pushing a hardline stance that you can’t negotiate with terrorists, framing Iran’s attacks on shipping as unacceptable and non‑negotiable.
Many media outlets portray this as Trump scrambling after failing to foresee Iran’s attacks and their impact on oil markets, though that simple incompetence narrative is disputed given how the war has actually unfolded.

No, China doesn't plan 1000 years ahead

Noahpinion • 20059 implied HN points • 29 Jan 26

🌍 World Politics Military

China is not some centuries‑planning monolith; its leaders often act reactively, make big short‑term mistakes, and reverse course.
Xi’s recent purges reveal elite instability and personal paranoia, which may blunt external adventurism but make domestic policy more unpredictable and sometimes damaging.
The claim that China plans 1,000 years ahead is largely a myth; both countries show examples of farsighted investment and of short‑sighted failure, so the real priority is rebuilding concrete long‑term institutions and policies rather than romanticizing rivals.

If Westerners Could Wrap Their Minds Around What War Really Is

Caitlin’s Newsletter • 3357 implied HN points • 03 Mar 26

🌍 World Politics Military

War is unimaginably brutal and causes horrific physical and emotional suffering. Many people in the West treat it like a video game because they haven’t experienced those horrors firsthand.
Our culture, media, and leaders sanitize and glamorize war while dehumanizing people on the receiving end. That makes it easier for the public to support or ignore large-scale violence.
The western empire depends on ongoing war and powerful actors benefit from it. Real peace requires removing or resisting the systems and leaders that profit from bloodshed.

The US War Machine Is Run By Deranged Armageddon Cultists

Caitlin’s Newsletter • 2649 implied HN points • 05 Mar 26

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Military

Senior US officials are using aggressive, macho war rhetoric and promising relentless strikes on Iran, openly celebrating overwhelming military force.
Evangelical religious influence has seeped into the military and government, with leaders framing the conflict as divinely sanctioned and even apocalyptic.
The US imperial system is portrayed as dangerously hypocritical and tyrannical, led by zealots who shouldn't be trusted with nuclear power, and the piece argues this system must be dismantled for humanity's sake.

Judge Foreign Policy Decisions by Their Immediate Impacts

Richard Hanania's Newsletter • 1682 implied HN points • 16 Mar 26

🌍 World Politics Military

Judge foreign policy by its immediate impacts and short-term market signals, since markets aggregate information and reflect what people with money at stake expect. Reserve judgment only briefly while events are still unfolding, but don’t wait years or generations to decide.
When early indicators all point positive—rising markets, political openings, and clearer paths to better governance—treat the intervention as a success relative to the likely alternative rather than chasing long-run counterfactuals. Use these proximate signals as your baseline for comparison.
If signals are mixed or the situation is early, hold off and weigh market losses and economic costs against gains in policy objectives using a short, clear horizon; employ market proxies plus simple cost–benefit tools (including statistical value of life) rather than waiting indefinitely.

Iran Turns The Table On Trump.

C.O.P. Central Organizing Principle. • 72 implied HN points • 13 Mar 26

🌍 World Politics Military

Iran has effectively taken control over passage through the Strait of Hormuz, showing it can influence global oil flows and undercut the US goal of controlling oil trade and dollar dominance.
US efforts to seize foreign oil and pressure allies have backfired and exposed American weakness, while Russia and China’s support for Iran deters military intervention.
Iran’s strikes, reportedly using hypersonic weapons, have seriously damaged Israeli military and nuclear sites, raising fears of nuclear escalation while making any nuclear strike on Iran seem catastrophic and likely to fail or provoke massive retaliation.

US Calls Iranian Retaliatory Strikes "Unprovoked", And Other Notes

Caitlin’s Newsletter • 3073 implied HN points • 02 Mar 26

🌍 World Politics Military

Military action by the US and Israel against Iran has escalated into open conflict, killing Iranian civilians—including many schoolgirls—and causing US military casualties after Iran’s retaliatory strikes.
US officials calling Iran’s strikes “unprovoked” looks hypocritical given the prior attacks, and the information war is full of misattribution and propaganda.
Iran is refusing quick deals and says it must inflict costs to establish deterrence, while the wider conflict is worsening humanitarian crises like Gaza’s border closure and looming food shortages.

Debating the Ex-IDF Spokesman About the War in Iran on Piers Morgan's Show, with Mike Pence

Glenn Greenwald • 2787 implied HN points • 03 Mar 26

🌍 World Politics Military

The war with Iran is rapidly expanding and risks turning into a wider regional conflict, which is driving intense public and media debates.
Some prominent U.S. figures remain steadfast in defending past military interventions and continue to advocate for new wars with little change in their arguments.
Participants questioned whether Israel places key military and intelligence command centers inside residential areas of Tel Aviv, and former military spokespeople gave responses that many found revealing.

Iranians Use an App to Map Military Bases and Missile Sites—and So Does Israel

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 347 implied HN points • 16 Mar 26

🌍 World Politics Military

There is a civilian-run app that lets ordinary Iranians geotag military bases and missile sites on a map, and it can work even during government internet blackouts.
Israeli intelligence has been using the crowd-sourced geotags from that app to help identify and sometimes strike targets like missile launch sites.
The app was created by an Iranian-American activist and is tied to anti-regime sentiment, with many citizens reporting locations to oppose the government.

Timeline: The March To War With Iran

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 2542 implied HN points • 01 Mar 26

🌍 World Politics Military

The U.S. and Israel moved from sanctions and covert planning to open military strikes, culminating in a large joint operation aimed at crippling Iran’s nuclear and military capabilities and pushing for regime change.
Diplomacy and inspections continued even as attacks happened: multiple U.S.–Iran talks mediated by Oman, IAEA oversight, and snapback UN sanctions all unfolded, but experts disagreed about how much Iran’s nuclear program was actually degraded.
Mass protests in Iran and a violent government crackdown, combined with economic pressure like a deliberate dollar shortage, became focal points for international action and rhetoric, deepening regional instability and splitting global responses.

How to Reopen the Strait of Hormuz

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 524 implied HN points • 13 Mar 26

🌍 World Politics Military

Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz and declared that closure part of its official policy, blocking commercial traffic.
The U.S. can reopen the strait by military force, but it would be risky, require a large, sustained naval effort, and likely take weeks before civilian shipping is safe.
Historical operations show the U.S. has protected Gulf shipping and struck Iranian forces before, but the current campaign would be larger and more complex.

The Second Phase of the Iran War

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 259 implied HN points • 16 Mar 26

🌐 International Military

The U.S. and Israel have spent the first phase trying to decapitate Iran’s leadership and weaken its military power.
Their announced next goal is to end Iran’s nuclear program for good.
This represents a strategic shift toward targeting nuclear infrastructure and signals a potentially longer, more intense campaign with big regional and diplomatic consequences.

Niall Ferguson: Could This Be the Start of World War III?

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 1201 implied HN points • 05 Mar 26

🌍 World Politics Military

U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran could act as a flashpoint leading to a much larger, possibly global, war.
People are once again asking if the new conflict could become World War III, similar to the alarm that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Concerns that this could escalate into a broader conflagration are serious and not an unreasonable overreaction.

'The rock upon which all dictators have perished'

Wrong Side of History • 403 implied HN points • 06 Mar 26

🌍 World Politics Military

The UK–US 'special relationship' is real in institutions and history but is unequal and often treated with cynicism because each country ultimately puts its own interests first.
British domestic politics and shifting voter demographics make leaders cautious about joining American military actions, so popular opposition and unclear goals limit UK support.
The alliance was strongest when both sides shared a clear mission against common threats and deep ties (culture, nuclear forces, intelligence), but its emotional pull has weakened across generations.

March 20, 2026

Letters from an American • 27 implied HN points • 21 Mar 26

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Military

Attacks have escalated to hit major Gulf energy infrastructure like the South Pars gas field, disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and forcing countries to declare force majeure on oil exports.
The U.S. appears to have coordinated strikes and is preparing to send thousands of troops and possibly seize key oil facilities, while congressional Republicans are largely avoiding public oversight and the White House is packaging the war with entertainment-style messaging.
The war is driving up oil prices and inflation, hurting markets and adding huge economic costs, and most Americans disapprove of the military action, especially if it raises gas prices.

Where in the World Is Mojtaba Khamenei?

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 556 implied HN points • 11 Mar 26

🌍 World Politics Military

Mojtaba Khamenei appears to be injured and is being kept out of public view after the initial US–Israeli strikes.
Senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders have likely taken charge of the regime and are running the war in his stead.
The regime is leaning on performative displays of loyalty—like a taped cardboard cutout at rallies—which exposes efforts to hide instability and maintain appearances.

The Iran Strike Is All About China

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 1604 implied HN points • 02 Mar 26

🌍 World Politics Military

The U.S.-Israel strike on Iran is meant to weaken a key pillar of China’s regional strategy, not just punish Iran for sponsoring terrorism.
China has spent billions building Iran into a strategic asset and supplying the regime with tools to survive domestic popular rejection.
The attack signals a broader push to reshape regional power in the Indo-Pacific and roll back Beijing’s growing architecture of influence.

The Resource Wars Have Begun

Anima Mundi • 1009 implied HN points • 28 Feb 26

🌍 World Politics Military

Control of raw materials — oil, rare earths, cobalt, uranium, gold — is the central driver of many current wars and diplomatic moves. Conflicts from Iran to Venezuela to the DRC are being shaped more by resource access than by ideology.
Three competing strategies are colliding: the US uses transactional military leverage for resource access, China builds long-term infrastructure and standards to secure supplies, and Russia funds war through extraction while shadow actors profit. That collision is creating a multipolar scramble with no clear global rules or effective institutions.
The resource scramble risks cascading global crises — energy chokepoints, nuclear proliferation, supply‑chain collapses if Taiwan is attacked, and worsening humanitarian and democratic breakdowns. These cascades threaten markets, food and energy security, and accelerate the weakening of dollar dominance.

Iran and the immorality of OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google

Nonzero Newsletter • 1253 implied HN points • 07 Mar 26

🌍 World Politics Military

Special interests and biased media framing distort how America views Iran. That encourages misreading defensive actions as offensive and makes preemptive war more likely.
Big AI firms have provided models used in Pentagon-linked targeting tools, linking those companies to strikes that killed civilians. Promises to avoid fully autonomous weapons don’t absolve firms when their tech is used to plan lethal operations.
Domestic politics are shifting: a top DHS leader resigned and polls show Americans increasingly view fellow citizens as morally bad. These trends signal weakening support for current immigration enforcement and growing civic distrust.

How Close Is Israel to Maximum Escalation?

God's Spies by Thomas Neuburger • 854 implied HN points • 11 Mar 26

🌍 World Politics Military

Iranian strikes are doing more unacknowledged damage because interceptors and targeting radars are being depleted, so smaller missile and drone salvos are having bigger effects.
Israel appears willing to use extreme measures to survive, including the feared “Samson Option” as a last resort, and U.S. policy is tightly entangled with those Israeli decisions.
The conflict’s duration is uncertain: Iran signals readiness for a long fight while Israel may be running short on time and reluctant to accept a ceasefire until the Iranian threat is fully removed.

Democrats Aren't Resisting Trump's Iran War Because They Secretly Support It

Caitlin’s Newsletter • 2277 implied HN points • 20 Feb 26

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Military

The U.S. seems headed toward military action against Iran, and top Democratic leaders have been largely quiet or only mildly critical.
Democrats are accused of tacitly supporting aggressive foreign policy while letting Trump play the ‘bad cop,’ offering performative objections but avoiding real resistance.
Both parties are portrayed as two wings of the same pro‑war establishment — a polite wing and a rude wing — which blocks genuine pro‑peace politics.

Going to War, Again, for Israel

The Chris Hedges Report • 920 implied HN points • 28 Feb 26

🌍 World Politics Military

The United States is being pulled into a war that mainly serves Israeli goals, not American interests, risking American lives and flouting international norms.
Israel and its lobby have huge influence over U.S. politics, using money, trips, and pressure to secure massive military aid and political support.
The conflict will be costly and prolonged, causing many deaths, spiking oil prices, regional chaos and likely long-term failure like past regime-change wars.

Anthropic Doesn’t Decide Our Military’s Rules of Engagement

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 273 implied HN points • 12 Mar 26

🕹 Technology Military

Private AI companies shouldn't try to set the terms for how the military uses their tech; decisions about rules of engagement belong to the armed forces and government.
When a company tried to control military use, it sparked a public clash and led to the company being sidelined, which can limit timely access to important defense tools.
Tech firms should focus on protecting soldiers by building reliable, safe systems and cooperating with the Pentagon instead of fighting it over usage terms.

If You Think Our Rulers Do Bad Things In Secret, Wait Til You See What They Do Out In The Open

Caitlin’s Newsletter • 2957 implied HN points • 09 Feb 26

🌍 World Politics Military

Powerful governments and wealthy elites commit massive harms openly—wars, economic sieges, resource plundering, environmental destruction, and global military dominance happen in full view of the world.
Many of the worst abuses are public and systemic, driven by state policy and corporate profit, not just secret scandals behind closed doors.
While private scandals matter, attention and accountability should focus first on the far greater, visible harms that shape millions of lives.

If NATO Dies, Do We Really Have to Mourn?

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 6802 implied HN points • 14 Jan 26

🌍 World Politics Military

Donald Trump's moves around Greenland are being seen as a direct threat to NATO and could hasten the alliance's collapse.
Since the Soviet Union fell, NATO has repeatedly expanded its mission and pushed risky policies to justify its continued existence, often at high cost.
Some argue that NATO outlived its original purpose and that its demise might not be tragic, given how it became self-justifying and aggressive.