Probable Wisdom

Articles and lessons from more than two decades as an entrepreneur and innovator, exploring a probability-based mindset for building products, ventures and your career.

The hottest Substack posts of Probable Wisdom

And their main takeaways

Accounting for fortune

19 implied HN points • 11 Mar 24
💼 Business Success Luck Entrepreneurship Innovation Opportunity
  1. Don't underestimate the role of luck in success and failure. It's important to acknowledge its contribution.
  2. When studying success, account for chance and fortune to learn effectively. What worked for someone else may not work for you, and vice versa.
  3. To increase your chances of success, identify opportunities, develop an endurance strategy, understand your context, and create ways to generate opportunities.

Coming soon

19 implied HN points • 01 Jan 24
💼 Business Entrepreneurship Innovation Career development
  1. The Probable Wisdom newsletter by Patrick Donohue will offer articles and lessons from his experience as an entrepreneur and innovator, focusing on a probability-based mindset for product development, venture-building, and careers.
  2. The newsletter will discuss the importance of following what is most probable when truth is not within our power, referencing a quote by Renee Descartes.
  3. Readers can subscribe to stay updated on the upcoming launch of the Probable Wisdom newsletter.

Should you take on a turnaround?

1 HN point • 18 Mar 24
💼 Business Leadership Decision-making Management Career Professional Growth
  1. Consider the level of commitment and urgency in a turnaround opportunity, as they shape the conditions and leadership needed.
  2. Evaluate if the turnaround opportunity aligns with your personal goals and capabilities to ensure a good fit.
  3. Different types of turnarounds require different leadership archetypes like Prophets, Heroes, Pathbreakers, and Maestros, based on varying levels of commitment and urgency.

The goldfish principle and objective benchmarking

0 implied HN points • 04 Mar 24
🕹 Technology AI Innovation Measurement Context Benchmarking
  1. The Goldfish Principle emphasizes managing context like a goldfish's limited memory, crucial for LLM application development and innovation.
  2. Objective Benchmarking involves setting up evaluation criteria to measure progress effectively, vital for tasks with uncertain outcomes like LLM application development and innovation.
  3. Embracing the Goldfish Principle and Objective Benchmarking helps navigate uncertain opportunities successfully, supporting teams and organizations to thrive in unpredictable environments.
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