The hottest Decision-making Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Join me for a conversation with Brett Berson, Partner at First Round Capital

Thinking in Bets • 138 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
💼 Business Venture Capital Investment strategy Decision-making Startups
  1. Learn how a top venture capital firm has changed its investment processes. They focus on being more organized and efficient.
  2. Discover how to make better investment choices using data. A data-driven approach helps in making smarter decisions.
  3. Find out how to improve feedback loops in finance. Creating quicker feedback can help in long-term decision-making.

Why rationality (almost) never wins

Random Minds by Katherine Brodsky • 4 implied HN points • 04 Mar 25
📖 Philosophy Rationality Emotion Decision-making Cognition Disinformation
  1. People often make decisions based on emotions rather than facts. This shows that logic does not always win in arguments and discussions.
  2. Disinformation campaigns use emotional appeals to convince people, rather than relying on logical arguments. They aim to evoke strong feelings that can overshadow rational thinking.
  3. When emotions are triggered, parts of our brains responsible for logic can become less active, making it harder for us to think critically. This highlights the power of emotions in shaping our beliefs.

Downstream Problems

The Breaking Point • 199 implied HN points • 29 Oct 24
💼 Business Sales Marketing Leadership Decision-making Growth
  1. Focus on solving the root problem, not just the surface issues. Fixing the wrong thing will only lead to more problems.
  2. Quality leads are crucial for a successful sales process. Even a flawed process can succeed if the leads are strong and motivated.
  3. Looking upstream for solutions can help fix multiple problems at once. If you improve one area, other issues may also resolve.

Andrew Roberts: Trump’s Churchillian Choice at Fordow

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 2531 implied HN points • 16 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Leadership Decision-making History International relations Military Strategy
  1. Dictators often make real threats, so it's important to take them seriously. History shows that when people ignore these threats, it can lead to severe consequences.
  2. Winston Churchill faced a tough decision during World War II about the French fleet. He chose to sink it to prevent it from being used by the enemy, showing that sometimes tough choices are necessary for safety.
  3. Leadership can require hard and ruthless choices during critical moments. These actions can redirect the course of events to ensure a safer future.

unitary presidentialism as a collective cognition design flaw

Brain Pizza • 595 implied HN points • 14 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Government Systems Cognition Decision-making Political theory Information processing
  1. Unitary presidential systems focus power in one person, making them prone to too much pressure and stress. This can lead to poor decision-making and inefficiency.
  2. Having just one person making important choices can create problems because they can't handle all the information alone. It’s better to share decisions among many people.
  3. When a single leader has too much responsibility, it can cause delays and mistakes. Spreading the workload can help improve decision-making and outcomes.
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How to feel bad and be wrong

Experimental History • 40381 implied HN points • 21 Jan 25
📖 Philosophy Cognitive Biases Decision-making Mental models Human behavior Self-reflection
  1. Our brains often take shortcuts when facing tough questions, making it easier to answer simple ones instead. This can lead us to overlook important issues in our lives.
  2. Many people measure their worth and productivity based on how hard they feel they are working, instead of setting clear goals. This can cause unnecessary stress and feelings of inadequacy.
  3. When assessing things like the state of the economy or the quality of a school, we tend to rely on popular opinion rather than personal experience. This leads to judgments that may not reflect reality.

The Politicization of Intelligence

The Honest Broker Newsletter • 1118 implied HN points • 02 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Intelligence Decision-making Policy Analysis Political theory Ethics
  1. Intelligence can be influenced by politics, which means the information gathered isn't always objective. This can lead to bad decisions based on flawed data.
  2. It's important for decision-makers to be open to different views and facts, even if they don't fit their hopes. Ignoring contrary evidence can lead to problems, like the difficulties faced in Iraq.
  3. Leaders in politics and intelligence need to focus on reality and not let political agendas shape the truth. Good outcomes come from honest assessments, not just from trying to win political arguments.

This Explains A Lot About Society: The Asch Conformity Experiment

The Society of Problem Solvers • 279 implied HN points • 21 Oct 24
📖 Philosophy Social Behavior Collective Intelligence Cognitive Psychology Group dynamics Decision-making
  1. Many people choose to fit in with their group rather than stick to the truth. This happens often in social situations.
  2. Using group problem-solving methods can help avoid this issue. When people don’t see each other's answers, they're more likely to say what they really think.
  3. Working together in trusted teams can help us solve problems better. Just like how single cells evolved to work together, we can improve by collaborating effectively.

Context and Cacti

Vanguard Anthology • 119 implied HN points • 20 Oct 24
📖 Philosophy Decision-making Cognition Behavioral Psychology Social Dynamics
  1. Cactusing happens when you stick to a decision even when the situation changes. It's like wanting nachos for a late-night snack then forgetting that you need a quick meal the next day.
  2. People often hold onto past achievements or contexts that no longer apply. For example, judging NASA based on its past greatness rather than its current status can lead to outdated evaluations.
  3. Recognizing when to change your decisions can open doors to new opportunities. Adapting to new situations can provide an advantage over those who don't adjust their thinking.

Why You Should Focus On Making Your Decisions Right

Remarkable People • 639 implied HN points • 04 Sep 24
💼 Business Decision-making Entrepreneurship Innovation Leadership Coaching
  1. Striving for a perfect decision can hold you back. It's better to focus on making your decision work instead of aiming for perfection.
  2. Committing to your decision is key. Once you make a choice, throw yourself into it and make the best of the situation.
  3. Be open to change and learn from each decision. Adapting and understanding what works can help you improve next time.

How Do You Balance Responsibilities To Yourself/Your Kin & Your Wider Community?

Culture Study • 3834 implied HN points • 15 Nov 24
🎭️ Culture Society Community Responsibility Ethics Decision-making
  1. It's important to figure out how to balance your own needs with the needs of your family and community. This can include deciding between things like private and public schools for your kids.
  2. People face tricky choices when it comes to their careers, like choosing a job that pays well versus one that helps the world. Each choice comes with its own set of feelings and challenges.
  3. Many folks want to hear about how others manage these tough decisions and what emotions come up. Sharing experiences can help everyone understand and support each other better.

Killing A Bad Strategy Before It Kills you

Rob Henderson's Newsletter • 4413 implied HN points • 09 Feb 25
💼 Business Strategy Leadership Decision-making Management History
  1. 1. Grand strategy helps you achieve big goals with limited resources. Since everyone faces resource limits, using what you have smartly can lead to unexpected successes.
  2. 2. Foxes tend to predict better than hedgehogs because they use many ideas and adapt. Foxes keep an open mind, while hedgehogs stick to one big idea, even if it's wrong.
  3. 3. Planning is important, but sticking too rigidly to a plan can be a mistake. It's better to remain flexible and adjust to new opportunities as they arise.

Is Recommendation Culture Making Us Act Nutso?

Total Rec • 8148 implied HN points • 06 Apr 24
🎭️ Culture Social media Consumer behavior Identity Decision-making Society
  1. Recommendation culture can lead to overkill, making every purchase feel like it needs to be perfect, which can cause unnecessary stress.
  2. Identifying strongly with brands and over-identifying with our purchases may simplify our self-concept based on what we buy, potentially clouding our personal values.
  3. Seeking validation through recommended experiences or products can create a false sense of community, leading to performative living and potentially isolating us further.

Regret Maximization Sickness

Investing 101 • 55 implied HN points • 07 Jun 25
💰 Finance Investing Decision-making Personal Growth Regret Hope
  1. Regret can hold us back and often leads to worse decisions. Instead of focusing on what we've done wrong, it's better to learn from mistakes and move forward.
  2. There is a lot of pressure to maximize our regrets, but we can choose to focus on hope and redemption instead. We have the option to embrace grace for ourselves and others.
  3. Investing should be about hope for the future. Dwelling on past regrets stops us from looking forward and finding new opportunities.

Methods and Outcomes

The Breaking Point • 159 implied HN points • 08 Oct 24
💼 Business Strategy Planning Management Sales Decision-making
  1. When making decisions, it's important to separate methods from outcomes. If you mix them up, it can lead to confusion and endless debates.
  2. You can plan in two ways: starting with methods to estimate outcomes or starting with outcomes to figure out the methods needed. Both ways can work depending on the situation.
  3. To empower your team, give them clear outcomes and let them choose their own methods. This way, they feel involved and motivated to succeed.

My Next Decision Making Class is Launching on November 18th!

Thinking in Bets • 99 implied HN points • 10 Oct 24
🚌 Education Online Learning Decision-making Career development Personal Growth Workshops
  1. A new decision-making class starts on November 18th, running for a month with interactive sessions.
  2. Students will learn a 6-step process for better decision making and how to overcome cognitive biases.
  3. The course includes nine live sessions, projects, and access to a community of peers for networking.

The Best Investing Advice

The Generalist • 760 implied HN points • 23 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investing Venture Capital Market Analysis Decision-making
  1. Investing is all about finding great companies, not just good deals. Focus on what makes a company truly outstanding.
  2. Diversify not just across different industries, but also over time. Don't rush into investments; think long-term and consider market changes.
  3. Startups should offer something unique that stands out. Instead of competing with existing options, create a choice that reshapes the conversation.

The Hidden Psychology of Career Choices | LSW#61

The Leading Sapiens Weekly • 100 implied HN points • 06 Feb 25
💼 Business Career Choices Decision-making Personal Growth
  1. Choosing a career is tough because we often fear making the wrong choice. It's important to remember that feeling lost is normal and part of the journey.
  2. It's better to try different jobs and experiences instead of only chasing promotions. You discover more about what you like by experimenting and learning from your experiences.
  3. Regret is a normal part of making choices. It's more about owning your decisions and accepting that every path has ups and downs, rather than looking for a perfect option.

How to Make Big Life Decisions

David Spinks' Newsletter • 12 implied HN points • 26 Feb 25
🏥 Health & Wellness Personal Growth Mental health Decision-making Emotional Wellbeing Career Coaching
  1. Emotions are important when making big decisions, so it's good to let them flow and be expressed. This helps clear your mind and find calmness.
  2. Listening to the different parts of yourself can help you understand your fears and concerns. Acknowledging them can lead to a deeper insight into what you really want.
  3. Checking in with your heart and body when making a decision is crucial. If it feels right and brings calm, you’re likely on the right path.

I Was Mistaken When I Said That Giving Unsolicited Advice Is a Mistake

Rob Henderson's Newsletter • 2026 implied HN points • 26 Jan 25
📖 Philosophy Ethics Autonomy Conflict Decision-making
  1. People usually don't like being told what to do. It can create tension, especially when the advice comes from someone they see as equal or below them.
  2. When giving advice, it's important to consider the other person's feelings and autonomy. Balancing love and respect for their independence is key.
  3. Giving unsolicited advice can sometimes be well-intentioned but misunderstood. It's good to be careful when sharing thoughts on someone else's choices.

My Intellectual Heroes, Part 3

Life Since the Baby Boom • 1383 implied HN points • 12 Feb 25
📖 Philosophy Behavioral Economics Cognitive Psychology Human behavior Intellectual history Decision-making
  1. Daniel Kahneman showed that people often don’t act like the rational thinkers we expect. He studied how we make decisions and found many biases that affect our judgment.
  2. He worked with Amos Tversky and together they explored how our minds trick us. Their ideas laid the foundation for behavioral economics, changing how we think about choices.
  3. Kahneman's book 'Thinking Fast and Slow' explains our two types of thinking: fast reactions and slower, more careful thinking. Understanding this can help us make better decisions.

How I Will Measure My Life

Software Design: Tidy First? • 1259 implied HN points • 07 Feb 25
📖 Philosophy Decision-making Intuition Tradeoffs
  1. Not everything in life can be measured or compared. Some experiences, like special family dinners or random acts of kindness, are unique and important in ways that numbers can't capture.
  2. Money can create options for us, but not all money is equally valuable for choices. Having enough savings can open up more possibilities, but beyond a point, additional money may not significantly change your options.
  3. Freetime is valuable because it allows you to choose how you spend your time. More freetime means more opportunities to pursue interests, but sometimes a little extra isn't as important once you reach a comfortable level.

What should I do? What would you do?

Disaffected Newsletter • 1039 implied HN points • 04 Jun 24
📖 Philosophy Ethics Existentialism Human behavior Decision-making Self-help
  1. It's common for people to look to experts for answers to their problems, but often there isn't a clear right answer. Many issues are complicated and need thoughtful discussion rather than a simple solution.
  2. Conversations can help people clarify their thoughts and feelings about difficult situations. Talking through problems can lead to better decisions that fit their unique lives.
  3. While some coaches or consultants may not have formal training, they can still provide valuable support. They can help clients understand their problems better and explore possible outcomes.

Il faut des discussions difficiles

L'Atelier Galita • 59 implied HN points • 06 Oct 24
💼 Business Career development Communication Skills Leadership Decision-making Personal Growth
  1. Having tough conversations is important for personal success. The more difficult discussions you engage in, the more you can grow.
  2. Making good career decisions often comes with challenges. It's not always an easy path, but it can lead to greater autonomy.
  3. Growth and success are tied to your willingness to face uncomfortable topics. Embracing these conversations can lead you to better opportunities.

Fight or flight or...uh oh?

The Leap • 559 implied HN points • 30 Jun 24
🏥 Health & Wellness Mental health Physical health Decision-making Stress Relief Lifestyle
  1. Decision-making can be influenced by the presence of physical threats. When we feel threatened, our choices may narrow down to basic options like fighting or fleeing.
  2. The environment can greatly impact our mental state and decision-making abilities. A calm and beautiful setting may help us feel more relaxed and clear-headed.
  3. Hiking and spending time in nature can serve as an effective way to recover from stress and chaos in everyday life. It's a refreshing break that can help clear our minds.

The Impact of Founder Personalities on Company Success

The VC Corner • 779 implied HN points • 25 May 24
💼 Business Startups Entrepreneurship Leadership Decision-making Team Dynamics
  1. Founders' personalities really affect how they make decisions. For example, some might be more open to new ideas, helping them find creative solutions, while others may prefer detailed plans to avoid mistakes.
  2. Different types of founders work best together. Having a mix of personalities, like a 'Hipster, Hacker, and Hustler' trio, can boost a startup's chances of success.
  3. A diverse founding team is important. Each member brings unique strengths, which can help the company adapt and grow in challenging situations.

Just Don't Do It: The Hidden Virtues of Quitting

OK Doomer • 144 implied HN points • 08 Jan 25
📖 Philosophy Ethics Decision-making Existentialism Cultural critique Psychology
  1. Quitting can be a tough decision, but sometimes it's the right one. It takes strength and discipline to walk away from something that isn't working out.
  2. Many people struggle with the idea of quitting due to societal pressure to always push forward. Learning when to stop can lead to a healthier mindset and better choices.
  3. The fear of stopping or changing paths can lead to bigger issues in society, such as unrealistic expectations for endless growth. It's okay to aim for balance and recognize when to take a step back.

How To Determine If You Have The Product-Market Fit - From a16z & Sequoia Capital. | VC Jobs

Venture Curator • 419 implied HN points • 28 Jun 24
💼 Business Venture Capital Startup funding Tech news Decision-making
  1. Product-Market Fit is crucial for startups; it means customers are buying and using the product enthusiastically.
  2. Metrics are key to determine Product-Market Fit; track factors like customer acquisition cost, customer lifetime value, and retention rates.
  3. If you haven't achieved Product-Market Fit, focus on customer feedback, keep your team lean, and avoid ineffective shortcuts.

TBM 331: Strategy & Decisiveness

The Beautiful Mess • 859 implied HN points • 03 Jan 25
💼 Business Strategy Decision-making Management Leadership Company Culture
  1. Being strategic involves making choices, but not all strategies are about being decisive. Sometimes, being flexible and open to options can be just as important.
  2. Real-world strategy often faces messy challenges. It's not just about having a perfect plan; it's about navigating the unpredictable nature of business and making practical decisions.
  3. It's okay to admit uncertainty and avoid over-pressuring teams for quick decisions. Some trade-offs and juggling acts are just part of the process.

Psychology Links, 2/5/2025

In My Tribe • 486 implied HN points • 05 Feb 25
🔬 Science Psychology Decision-making Behavioral Science Risk Assessment Social Dynamics
  1. Humans tend to overreact to potential dangers. It's safer for our brains to think a harmless stick is a snake than to miss a real snake and get hurt.
  2. We often make decisions using shortcuts instead of thinking things through fully. This can lead to big mistakes because our brain swaps complicated questions for simpler ones quickly and without us noticing.
  3. Gossip plays a big role in how we connect with others. It helps us understand people's actions and build trust, showing how important social relationships are in our lives.

Smarter thinking in everyday life

Brain Pizza • 662 implied HN points • 16 Jan 25
🏥 Health & Wellness Cognitive Science Mental health Decision-making Behavioral Science Self-reflection
  1. Understanding how your brain works helps you deal with daily problems better. This means recognizing your own thinking patterns can improve your decision-making.
  2. By knowing common biases and habits, you can improve how you think and behave. This helps you make better choices and reach your goals more effectively.
  3. Small changes in your thinking can lead to big improvements in life. Using these insights helps you shape your actions and make smarter decisions daily.

VC's Framework for Evaluating an AI Startup's Tech Stack. | VC Jobs

Venture Curator • 419 implied HN points • 06 Jun 24
🕹 Technology AI Startups Tech stack Data Quality Decision-making
  1. The value proposition of AI companies now lies not just within models but predominantly in underpinning datasets, emphasizing the importance of data quality.
  2. When evaluating AI startups, VCs use frameworks to assess data quality, considering relevance, accuracy, coverage, and bias in the datasets used to train the AI models.
  3. To avoid investing in ineffectual AI startups, VCs focus on evaluating the processes behind data generation by asking questions about data automation, storage, access, processing, governance, and management.

The First Principles of Uncertainty

Deep Pulusani - Risk • 110 implied HN points • 01 May 25
📖 Philosophy Existentialism Decision-making Cognitive Science Psychology Leadership
  1. Uncertainty is a normal part of life and can actually help us stay alert and learn new things. It's important to accept that some things are unpredictable, which makes it easier to handle tough situations.
  2. When making decisions, it helps to separate uncertainties that can be reduced by gaining more information from those that can't be controlled. This way, we can focus on what we can change instead of feeling overwhelmed.
  3. Taking action is a great way to reduce uncertainty. Even small steps can lead to new insights and help us feel more confident in our choices.

Psyched Out

The Leap • 299 implied HN points • 11 Jun 24
🎾 Sports Poker Psychology Decision-making Cognitive Bias Tournaments
  1. The gambler's fallacy is a common mistake. People often think that after a losing streak, they're 'due' for a win, which isn't how probabilities work.
  2. Rumination can hurt your game. If you keep thinking about past bad hands, you're wasting mental energy that could be used to make better decisions now.
  3. Anchoring is when you focus too much on past chip counts. It's important to play based on your current stack, not how much you had before.

People Spend Too Much Time On Decisions with Equally Satisfying Outcomes

Rob Henderson's Newsletter • 984 implied HN points • 20 Oct 24
📖 Philosophy Decision-making Cognitive Bias Behavioral Science Rationality
  1. People often waste time making decisions that don't have a big difference in the outcome. It's okay to choose quickly when the results are similar.
  2. Analysis paralysis can happen when someone overthinks decisions. Simplifying the process can help avoid this trap.
  3. Making a choice and moving forward can lead to more satisfaction than worrying too much about what could have been done differently. Taking action is usually better than hesitating.

TBM 337: Pirates and Garbage Cans

The Beautiful Mess • 343 implied HN points • 02 Feb 25
💼 Business Leadership Conflict resolution Organizational Behavior Decision-making Team Dynamics
  1. Conflict in companies often stays unresolved because people are afraid to ask for help. This fear can make it look like admitting problems is a weakness.
  2. The Garbage Can model shows that decision-making is messy and often relies on chance rather than a clear process. Conflicts may get ignored until something urgent happens.
  3. Unlike businesses, pirate ships had systems in place for resolving conflicts because surviving together was crucial. Businesses can postpone resolving conflicts without facing immediate consequences, which can lead to bigger problems later.

On going first

Infinitely More • 12 implied HN points • 30 May 25
📖 Philosophy Games Fairness Strategy Decision-making Mathematics
  1. In many games, going first can give a big advantage, which isn't always fair. It's important to find ways to balance the game for both players.
  2. Rules like the 'swap rule' in games like Hex can help make things fair, but they may not always work perfectly for every game.
  3. For games like Go, figuring out the right value to give the second player can be tricky, and the common values used might not actually be the best.