The People's Economist with Anthony Chan

The hottest Substack posts of The People's Economist with Anthony Chan

And their main takeaways

Consumers in the U.S. are feeling pessimistic despite strong economic indicators like GDP growth, low unemployment rates, and declining Misery Index, mainly due to concerns about inflation viewed as a severe economic hardship.
Recent data suggests that Americans usually lag in incorporating the effects of inflation, with sentiment influenced by inflation readings observed 6 to 12 months prior, leading to a risk-averse approach among consumers.
Consumer dissatisfaction might also stem from the rising prices of dining out compared to cooking at home, affecting restaurant spending and consumer sentiment.

The Federal Reserve may lower policy rates due to a significant difference between core PCE and core CPI.
The Fed might not need to act as the economy is thriving with high growth rates.
Fed's caution is influenced by past inflation battles and current inflation metrics compared to historical data.

Consumer sentiment is influenced by consumer prices and inflation rates.
There is a negative correlation between consumer sentiment and yearly rise in consumer prices.
The recent rebound in consumer confidence suggests a shift towards optimism.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics announces politically charged projections for job creation, impacting political narratives.
Economic growth influences the direction of employment revisions: positive during growth and negative during slowdowns.
Annual benchmark revisions under different Presidents show varied trends in estimating actual employment figures.

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