The hottest Global Economy Substack posts right now

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The Fed's Secret Confession: The Beige Book Reveals a Troubling US Economy

COVID Reason • 436 implied HN points • 25 Oct 24
💰 Finance Economic Trends Market Analysis Central Banks Consumer behavior Global Economy
  1. The recent Beige Book shows that the U.S. economy is actually slowing down, not improving. Many regions reported economic decline, especially in manufacturing.
  2. There are rising concerns about job security and consumer spending. People are cutting back on spending due to financial worries and many companies are freezing hiring.
  3. Global economic issues are also affecting the U.S. market. Weak demand for products and looming recession signals are worrying for businesses and consumers alike.

BRICS Develops a Multipolar Economic Architecture

Glenn’s Substack • 1099 implied HN points • 20 Sep 24
🌍 World Politics International relations Global Economy Geopolitics Economic Policy
  1. BRICS is working to create a new economic system that doesn't depend on the US. This means countries can trade and cooperate without worrying about US control.
  2. There is a strong desire among countries to join BRICS and work together to trade in their own currencies instead of the US dollar. This could help protect their economies from US influence.
  3. BRICS aims to foster connections between diverse nations, including rivals, to manage political issues through economic collaboration, rather than division. This could lead to a more cooperative global environment.

Top Links 637 America's trade deficits. The robots are coming. Israeli defense exports & Khian Sea - the toxic ship.

Chartbook • 615 implied HN points • 02 Feb 25
💰 Finance Technology Environmental Issues Global Economy
  1. America has a significant trade deficit, which means it imports more than it exports. This impacts the economy and job market.
  2. The rise of robots and automation is changing the workforce. Many fear job losses, but there are also opportunities for new types of work.
  3. Israel is a major player in defense exports, showing how countries invest in their military technology.

BRICS enables Russia to displace US farmers

Glenn’s Substack • 1718 implied HN points • 02 Sep 24
🌍 World Politics International relations Global Economy Trade policy Geopolitics
  1. Russia and China are building a new trade route for grain. This helps Russia sell more food to China, taking market share away from US farmers.
  2. The BRICS nations are creating a new system that makes the US dollar less important in trade. This means countries can trade more freely without US influence.
  3. US farmers are struggling to get the information they need about global markets. Without this info, they can't make good decisions about what crops to plant.

Top Links 635 The rebalancing of global industrial production. A hog-cycle in containers. Czech reserves & Korean coups (in 1979)

Chartbook • 486 implied HN points • 31 Jan 25
💼 Business Global Economy Trade Economics Geopolitics
  1. Global industrial production is shifting. This means how and where things are made around the world is changing.
  2. There is a trend called a 'hog-cycle' in container shipping. This affects how goods are transported and the availability of containers.
  3. Historical events, like the Czech reserves and Korean coups in 1979, can help us understand current global shifts and economic patterns.
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Chartbook 341 On thinking in medias res: An Interview with Ding Xiongfei from the Shanghai Review of Books (summer 2024)

Chartbook • 2846 implied HN points • 24 Dec 24
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics International relations Global Economy Climate Policy Crisis Management
  1. Polycrisis shows that our world is facing multiple interconnected issues that can't be simply solved with clear solutions. It's about ongoing management rather than resolution.
  2. China's role in the climate crisis is crucial, and it may lead the global response to climate change, changing the narrative where the West is no longer the main actor.
  3. Understanding statistics and data is important, but they need to be seen as part of a broader political and economic system, not just as numbers reflecting reality.

Global. Synchronized. Recession

COVID Reason • 535 implied HN points • 10 Oct 24
💰 Finance Global Economy Consumer confidence Labor Market
  1. The global economy is in a full-blown recession, not just a minor slowdown. Signs like credit card shutdowns and a weak job market clearly show the situation is serious.
  2. Declining consumer confidence is a big red flag. People are feeling uncertain, which affects how much they spend and can worsen the economic crisis.
  3. This recession isn’t just affecting one place; it’s happening worldwide. Countries like China and Japan are facing similar struggles, indicating a synchronized economic downturn.

Top Links 630 Flexible exchange rates, fear of floating, Goldfinger & the reality of the global exchange rate system.

Chartbook • 414 implied HN points • 26 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economic Policy Global Economy Monetary Systems Financial Markets
  1. Flexible exchange rates can cause uncertainty, which some countries try to avoid, leading to a 'fear of floating'.
  2. The discussion around the realities of the global exchange rate system helps us understand how it impacts economies worldwide.
  3. Lessons from past conferences on floating exchange rates are valuable for grasping their long-term effects and challenges.

Top Links 624 Tariff arithmetic. The gearshift in global auto. Will India overtake Japan and Germany's likely lads.

Chartbook • 400 implied HN points • 20 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy Tariffs Global Economy International relations
  1. Tariffs can raise prices for consumers. When tariffs are imposed, it often leads to higher prices for goods.
  2. India may soon become a major player in the global auto industry. Some believe it could surpass Japan and Germany in this sector.
  3. Understanding how trade policies like tariffs impact global markets is key. They can change the dynamics of industries and economies around the world.

Top Links 612 How global inflation came and went. The economic fallout from the coup in Korea and the revolution in Bangladesh & big trouble in Sturgis.

Chartbook • 429 implied HN points • 08 Jan 25
💰 Finance Global Economy Inflation Economic Policy Market Trends
  1. Global inflation has seen significant changes, impacting economies worldwide.
  2. Political events, like coups and revolutions, can lead to serious economic fallout.
  3. Understanding these events helps us see how connected the world's economies really are.

Economic Calendar for the Week of February 23rd

Alex's Personal Blog • 32 implied HN points • 23 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economic Events Market Trends Earnings Reports Global Economy
  1. There are several important earnings reports coming up this week from companies like Zoom and Nvidia. These can give us insights into how these businesses are doing.
  2. Key U.S. economic events include jobless claims and consumer confidence data, which are important to track for understanding the economy's health.
  3. Global economic updates like inflation rates from different countries will also be released, giving a broader picture of the economic situation worldwide.

Indefensible

Doomberg • 7229 implied HN points • 20 Oct 24
🕹 Technology Semiconductors Energy Policy Manufacturing Global Economy International relations
  1. Taiwan has become a key player in the global semiconductor industry, producing a significant portion of the world's chips. This makes its technology sector very important to the global economy.
  2. Taiwan struggles with energy supply, having faced numerous power outages in recent years. This energy crunch raises concerns about its ability to support its semiconductor manufacturing.
  3. The island's history and political situation with China create additional stress. If tensions rise, Taiwan's energy vulnerabilities could be exploited, impacting its manufacturing capabilities.

Would Lenin have approved of the IMF?

Global Inequality and More 3.0 • 1328 implied HN points • 16 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economic Policy Monetary Systems Global Economy Financial Institutions
  1. The IMF has a specific role in ensuring countries maintain fiscal discipline and avoid excessive borrowing. This role is seen as necessary for economic stability, regardless of whether the system is capitalist or socialist.
  2. Critics often misunderstand the IMF's core mission, which is about discipline and accountability in fiscal matters. Austerity measures taken by the IMF are not inherently bad; they are meant to promote responsible economic behavior.
  3. If Lenin were alive today, he might actually support the IMF for its emphasis on fiscal responsibility and international trade management. He believed in the need for structured economic governance, similar to what the IMF provides.

Lula Hoops

Doomberg • 5190 implied HN points • 29 Oct 24
💰 Finance Currency Investments Global Economy Central Banking
  1. Gold prices have been rising significantly and outperforming the S&P 500 lately, reaching all-time highs in many currencies.
  2. There's speculation that central banks are accumulating gold as they explore options for a new currency to compete with the US dollar, particularly involving a potential BRICS currency backed by gold.
  3. At the recent BRICS summit, there were concerns that Brazil's president might not fully support efforts to move away from the US dollar, which could impact the success of this new currency initiative.

Top Links 603 How BATMMAAN stocks rule. Global coal keeps on rising & the US builds its first heavy ice breaker in half a century.

Chartbook • 286 implied HN points • 30 Dec 24
💰 Finance Stock Market Global Economy Investment Trends
  1. There are now 8 stocks in America that are worth over $1 trillion, often called the BATMMAAN stocks. These companies are very influential in the market.
  2. Global coal production is increasing, which shows that the demand for coal is still strong despite environmental concerns.
  3. The U.S. is building its first heavy icebreaker in 50 years. This is significant as it enhances the country's capabilities in Arctic waters.

Chartbook 333 Asia in the age of polycrisis.

Chartbook • 844 implied HN points • 17 Nov 24
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics International relations Global Economy Regional conflicts Crisis Management
  1. Asia's fast-growing economies may appear to offer solutions to the West's challenges, but that's not the complete picture.
  2. The concept of 'polycrisis' is relevant to both Asia and the West, suggesting interconnected issues that affect both regions.
  3. Understanding these global challenges requires looking beyond regional success stories and recognizing the shared complexities.

CROSSPOST/HOISTED: Larry Summers from 2022 on the "Polycrisis"

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 84 implied HN points • 16 Jan 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Fiscal policy Global Economy Financial Stability Inflation
  1. The global economy is facing a 'polycrisis,' which means there are many problems at once, like inflation, energy issues, and conflicts affecting different regions.
  2. Inflation is a big concern, and controlling it might require tough decisions like raising interest rates, which could lead to higher unemployment but is seen as necessary for stability.
  3. The situation in the UK shows how quickly financial stability can turn into chaos from bad policy, highlighting the importance of credibility and wise fiscal management.

The Unmaking of a Modern Economy: Brexit, Austerity, and Britain's Great Retraction

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 376 implied HN points • 23 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economic Policy Macroeconomics Global Economy Financial Crisis Growth Strategies
  1. Britain's economy has struggled since 2008, missing out on a lot of potential growth. If things had gone differently, people would be much better off today.
  2. Policies like austerity and Brexit have hurt the economy, but they are not the only reasons for the decline. There have been many mistakes made over the years.
  3. The long-term effects of economic shocks, like the Great Recession, can have lasting impacts on growth. This shows how important it is to be careful with economic policies.

Beijing's Bubble Bursts Part 2

Diane Francis • 1378 implied HN points • 05 Feb 24
💰 Finance Debt crisis Real Estate Global Economy Investment Speculation
  1. China's real estate bubble has created massive debt, making it harder for local governments to provide services. Many places have empty buildings while local debts soar.
  2. The Belt and Road Initiative has turned into a huge financial burden for China, with many countries unable to repay the loans. This has led to China becoming the biggest debt collector globally.
  3. China's gambling-like approach to its economy is hurting its growth and reputation. With a lot of speculation and risk-taking, its future outlook looks uncertain.

Just How Revisionist is China?

Drezner’s World • 609 implied HN points • 01 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Global Economy Conflict International relations Global order Iran
  1. The global economic order is unraveling based on data from sources like Uppsala Conflict Data Program and Global Peace Index.
  2. China, Russia, and Iran are involved in global conflicts, but China seems to have more complex preferences and constraints on its revisionism.
  3. China is publicly rejecting U.S. pressure while privately pressuring Iran, showing limits to their revisionism.

Houthi and the Blown Ships

Murtaza Hussain • 511 implied HN points • 22 Jan 24
🌍 World Politics Conflicts International Law Global Economy Middle East Humanitarian Crisis
  1. Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea have significantly impacted global economy and shipping insurance rates.
  2. U.S. faces a challenge in dealing with the Houthis due to their adaptability and the potential need for a regime change operation in Yemen.
  3. Focus should be on addressing conditions that fuel violence and moving conflicts to the political realm, rather than moralizing about 'Good Guys' and 'Bad Guys.'

China deepens ties with Venezuela, challenging US 'hegemonic mindset'

Geopolitical Economy Report • 837 implied HN points • 16 Sep 23
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy Foreign Relations International Organizations Geopolitics Global Economy
  1. China and Venezuela have deepened their strategic partnership, challenging the hegemonic mindset and sanctions imposed by the US.
  2. Venezuela has significant economic potential due to its vast oil and gas reserves, attracting interest from China as a reliable energy partner.
  3. The growing alliance between Venezuela and China symbolizes a shift towards South-South cooperation, emphasizing mutual development and multipolarity in today's global landscape.

🌎⏩ How fast can the global economy grow?

Faster, Please! • 822 implied HN points • 02 Mar 24
💼 Business Economic Growth Artificial Intelligence Global Economy Science fiction
  1. The concept of the Singularity involves rapid technological advancements leading to an unimaginable surge in economic growth.
  2. The idea of exponential economic growth can be challenging to comprehend, similar to how residents of a two-dimensional world might struggle to imagine a three-dimensional object.
  3. Exploring historical precedents can offer insights into more feasible scenarios for economic growth.

US woos India's far-right PM Modi to help wage new cold war on China

Geopolitical Economy Report • 737 implied HN points • 24 Jun 23
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics Diplomacy Foreign Relations International Organizations Global Economy
  1. The US is seeking India's help in forming an alliance against China, even though India's Prime Minister Modi has links to far-right Hindu-supremacist groups.
  2. Modi's BJP party and regime in India have a history of inciting violence against minorities and undermining left-wing activism.
  3. The US aims to use India to weaken the BRICS bloc and isolate China and Russia, with efforts to sway India away from its traditional non-aligned foreign policy.

Low-Income Countries are Falling Behind

Apricitas Economics • 57 implied HN points • 03 Dec 24
🌍 World Politics Global Economy Geopolitics Economic Growth
  1. Low-income countries are struggling economically and the progress made against extreme poverty is at risk. This means more people are falling back into poverty.
  2. There is a significant gap in economic output between low-income countries and wealthy nations like the U.S. This results in poor access to necessities like food and healthcare.
  3. Recent global events, including COVID-19 and inflation, have worsened conditions for low-income countries. Many are now growing slower than richer nations, which is not a good sign for future economic growth.

Why does the US support Israel? A geopolitical analysis with economist Michael Hudson

Geopolitical Economy Report • 617 implied HN points • 13 Nov 23
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics Middle East International relations Foreign Policy Global Economy
  1. US support for Israel is primarily driven by geopolitical strategies and control over the Middle East region.
  2. The US sees Israel as a military base to exert control over oil reserves in the Middle East and maintain dominance in the global economy.
  3. Historical parallels can be drawn between the Crusades and current US strategies in the Middle East, indicating power struggles for oil resources and global control.

Cellular Walkie-Talkies.

News Items • 412 implied HN points • 09 Jan 24
🌍 World Politics Global Economy Economic Impact Global Trade
  1. War over Taiwan would have a significant cost in blood and treasure, surpassing previous global crises like the war in Ukraine and Covid pandemic.
  2. A conflict in Taiwan would devastate its economy by around 40%, impacting other major economies like China and the US.
  3. The global GDP would suffer a significant 10.2% decline, with countries like South Korea and Japan most affected.

US Congress plots to save dollar dominance amid global de-dollarization rebellion

Geopolitical Economy Report • 677 implied HN points • 28 Jun 23
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics Global Economy International relations Financial system
  1. The US Congress held a hearing about the global movement toward de-dollarization, with concerns over challenges from China and Russia to the US financial system dominance.
  2. Lawmakers discussed how aggressive US sanctions weakened dollar dominance, pushing countries to seek alternative financial systems.
  3. Experts highlighted the economic benefits of the dollar's dominance, like lower borrowing costs and savings for the US economy, while warning about potential threats.

Sanctions 'undermine hegemony of dollar', US Treasury admits

Geopolitical Economy Report • 637 implied HN points • 21 Apr 23
🌍 World Politics Sanctions Geopolitics Global Economy International relations Humanitarian Issues
  1. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen acknowledged that unilateral sanctions could weaken the dominance of the dollar.
  2. Sanctions have caused millions of deaths around the world, with examples like Iraq and Venezuela.
  3. Yellen implied that US plans involve using some of Russia's seized foreign exchange reserves to fund Ukraine reconstruction, which could have geopolitical implications.

BRICS bloc is adding members, planning new currency to challenge US dollar

Geopolitical Economy Report • 598 implied HN points • 06 Jun 23
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics International relations Global Economy BRICS
  1. BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) are expanding and gaining economic and political influence globally.
  2. BRICS members are considering creating a new global reserve currency to challenge the dominance of the US dollar.
  3. The BRICS economies collectively represent a significant share of the global economy, with China contributing the highest share.

Reconsidering the "2020s as 1940s" Analogy

The Overshoot • 550 implied HN points • 08 Mar 23
💰 Finance Economic History Global Economy Government Response Debt crisis Forecasting
  1. The global economy faced crises in different time periods, revealing government responses can impact recovery.
  2. Excessive debts before a crisis can hinder growth post-crisis, affecting employment and national income.
  3. Governments borrowing and spending during emergencies can lead to positive outcomes, improving sectors and reducing debt burdens.

'World War 3 has already started' between US and Russia/China, argues French scholar

Geopolitical Economy Report • 697 implied HN points • 15 Jan 23
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics International relations Global Economy Military conflict Foreign Policy
  1. French scholar Emmanuel Todd argues that World War III has begun between the US and Russia/China due to the Ukraine proxy war.
  2. Todd points out that Russia's resilience against Western sanctions challenges the American imperial system and its hold on Europe.
  3. Todd criticizes the overreliance on GDP as a metric, highlighting the adaptive capacity of the Russian economy due to a significant role for the state compared to the US neoliberal economic model.

Economic Calendar for the Week of December 15, 2024

Alex's Personal Blog • 32 implied HN points • 15 Dec 24
💰 Finance Market Trends Economic Events Investments Corporate Earnings Global Economy
  1. The economic calendar for the week includes important U.S. events like the NY Empire State manufacturing index and earnings from companies like Mitek.
  2. Global economic events will also take place, such as inflation rates in Italy and housing starts in Canada.
  3. It's a time to keep an eye on both domestic and international indicators that could impact the economy.

Is the US Stronger than China?

Policy Tensor • 412 implied HN points • 02 Jul 23
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics Military Global Economy
  1. In 1999, the US had a large superiority over other major powers, but by 2023, China has become a strong global power.
  2. The traditional metrics like GDP may not accurately reflect a country's military strength or war-making capabilities.
  3. Industrial production capacity is a crucial factor in determining a country's ability to sustain military efforts and shows China's significant growth and potential dominance.

Privateering.

News Items • 196 implied HN points • 01 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Global Economy Cybersecurity Geopolitical Tensions
  1. The modern economy and international order are being challenged by incidents at sea involving Houthi rebels, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and the resurgence of piracy.
  2. The U.S. government has disrupted a dangerous Chinese hacking operation targeting American critical infrastructure networks in preparation for potential cyberattacks during conflict.
  3. Beijing's advanced hacking capabilities and interest in infiltrating U.S. critical infrastructure pose a significant cybersecurity challenge.

Washington's $300 billion dilemma

The Dossier • 303 implied HN points • 28 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Foreign Relations Sanctions Economic Policy Global Economy International Law
  1. Western powers imposed sanctions on Russia by freezing $300 billion of Russian assets in the US and Europe, aiming to weaken the Russian economy, but the impact on the Russian war effort has been limited.
  2. The idea of seizing Russia's frozen $300 billion stash is being considered by the Biden Administration and Congress as a punitive measure, but legalizing such action through Congress is required.
  3. Seizing the $300 billion would be an unprecedented event with potential far-reaching consequences, including implications on the U.S. dollar's status as a global reserve currency and market signals about its stability.