The hottest GDP Substack posts right now

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Top World Politics Topics

Slick Landing

Doomberg • 8377 implied HN points • 06 Jan 24
💰 Finance Economy Interest Rates GDP Market Analysis Macroeconomics
  1. In 2022, the US economy was expected to fall into a deep recession, but it didn't.
  2. Despite doubts, the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes had a positive impact on the economy.
  3. Forecasts for the US economy are challenging, and unexpected outcomes provide unique learning opportunities.

The "Home ATM" Closed in Q4

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 07 Mar 24
💰 Finance Debt GDP Real Estate Homeownership
  1. During the housing bubble, many homeowners used their perceived home equity as a 'Home ATM,' contributing to the subsequent housing bust when prices declined.
  2. Refinancing activity declined in early 2022 as mortgage rates rose, leading to a shift where homeowners started using home equity loans to access their equity.
  3. Despite a decline in demand for HELOCs and a decrease in refinancing activity, Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW) remained low throughout Q4 2023, indicating balanced equity borrowing and principal payments.
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Federal Reserve Policymakers Meet This Week and Ask: “Are We There Yet?”

The People's Economist with Anthony Chan • 19 implied HN points • 29 Jan 24
💰 Finance Economy Monetary Policy Inflation GDP History
  1. The Federal Reserve may lower policy rates due to a significant difference between core PCE and core CPI.
  2. The Fed might not need to act as the economy is thriving with high growth rates.
  3. Fed's caution is influenced by past inflation battles and current inflation metrics compared to historical data.

How Rich Would 1 Billion Americans Be?

Splitting Infinity • 1 HN point • 21 Feb 24
🔬 Science Economics Population GDP Immigration Growth
  1. The idea of having 1 billion Americans and its impact on the economy has not been seriously considered before.
  2. Estimating the wealth of 1 billion Americans shows potential for tremendous wealth growth, sparking discussions around growth-oriented policies.
  3. Maintaining sustainable growth over the long term can significantly transform the world, emphasizing the importance of steady progress.

Modeling p(doom) with TrojanGDP

Data Taboo • 5 implied HN points • 22 Sep 23
🕹 Technology AI Modeling Ethics GDP Automation
  1. There is a lack of mathematical models to assess AI existential risks like p(doom).
  2. The academic community has historically ignored existential risks from AI superintelligence.
  3. The proposed TrojanGDP model aims to estimate the lower bound of AI risk based on factors like GDP contribution and neural Trojan rediscovery.

Are AI Girlfriends the Great Filter?

Neural Networking • 0 implied HN points • 14 Jan 24
🕹 Technology AI Simulation Brain Energy consumption GDP
  1. The Fermi paradox questions why we haven't encountered extraterrestrial life despite the vastness of the universe.
  2. The possibility of AI advancing to perfectly stimulate human reward pathways might lead to a decline in the desire for outward expansion.
  3. Current trends in global population growth, energy consumption, and GDP concentration suggest that the need for physical exploration may be diminishing.

Are US consumers' finances seriously stretched?

Global Markets Investor • 0 implied HN points • 28 Mar 24
💰 Finance Economy Consumers GDP Recession
  1. US consumers' finances are a significant factor in the country's economic health, with personal consumption expenditures accounting for a large portion of the GDP.
  2. There is concern over a potential weakening of US consumers' financial situation and its impact on economic growth.
  3. It is important to analyze the data and trends to understand the reality of the US economy and the potential future implications.