Astral Codex Ten • 33380 implied HN points • 16 Mar 26
- AI false statements are calculated guesses rather than mysterious hallucinations. Because their core job is predicting the next token, they produce plausible answers even when they lack real knowledge.
- The training process rewards prediction across trillions of tokens, so models learn to guess and occasional lucky fabrications get reinforced. That incentive structure lets made-up specifics persist instead of being reliably corrected.
- This is fundamentally an alignment problem: we need to align model objectives so they prefer truthful, helpful answers over risky guessing. Post-training fixes can reduce but not eliminate shameless guesses, so misalignment remains a real safety concern.