Tanay’s Newsletter

Tanay’s Newsletter explores the intersections of technology, business, and the digital economy with a focus on the impact of AI, the strategies of tech giants and startups, developments in the tech industry, and the evolution of digital marketing, ecommerce, and product development.

Technology Trends Business Strategies Digital Economy Artificial Intelligence Tech Industry Analysis Digital Marketing Ecommerce Product Development Regulatory Challenges

The hottest Substack posts of Tanay’s Newsletter

And their main takeaways

Circle S-1 Breakdown

170 implied HN points • 10 Jun 25
🔮 Crypto Stablecoins Revenue Models Market Trends
  1. Stablecoins, like USDC and USDT, are now important for payments, moving large amounts of money much like traditional banking systems. USDC alone has handled over $25 trillion since it started.
  2. Circle, which runs USDC, makes most of its money by investing the dollars that back USDC in U.S. Treasuries. This means if interest rates drop a lot, their profits could take a big hit.
  3. Coinbase plays a huge role in Circle's success by helping to distribute USDC. They share the profits from USDC, so a lot of Circle's earnings are paid to Coinbase as part of their agreement.

Agentic Commerce is Coming: How AI Will Reshape Online Retail

113 implied HN points • 03 Jun 25
💼 Business Ecommerce AI Technology Market Trends Consumer behavior
  1. Agentic commerce involves AI agents doing the work for you in shopping. This means AI will help find, compare, and buy products without much human input.
  2. AI tools like ChatGPT are already playing a role in how people discover products. As these tools improve, they will change the whole shopping experience.
  3. Many companies are creating new technologies and platforms to support agentic commerce. There's a big opportunity for innovation in areas like product data, payments, and customer services.

The Rise of the Agentic Workforce

220 implied HN points • 29 Jan 25
💼 Business Startups Automation Market Trends
  1. AI is becoming more common in workplaces, taking on roles similar to human coworkers. This means more companies are using AI to help with tasks that were once done by people.
  2. These AI workers are designed to do specific jobs, promising to make work easier and faster. They are often created to handle certain tasks well, rather than do everything a human does.
  3. AI workers can change how businesses spend money, as they focus on labor budgets instead of software budgets. This could lead to new pricing models based on actual work done, rather than just user licenses.

A few charts on where AI adoption is going

113 implied HN points • 19 Feb 25
🕹 Technology AI Adoption Models Business Consulting
  1. The cost of using advanced AI models has dropped dramatically, making it easier for businesses to experiment and integrate AI into their products. This change opens up new possibilities for reaching millions of users.
  2. Reinforcement learning is proving effective for tasks with clear outcomes, which could lead to better performance of AI models over time. As these models improve, we can expect more widespread use of AI.
  3. The journey to adopting AI takes time, but it's happening faster than past innovations like electricity or telephones. Today, a significant portion of people are regularly using AI tools.

How Big Tech Sees DeepSeek: Five Key Takeaways

82 implied HN points • 10 Feb 25
🕹 Technology AI Innovation Business Models Infrastructure Computing
  1. DeepSeek has introduced important new methods in AI training, making it more efficient and cost-effective. Major tech companies like Microsoft and Amazon are already using its models.
  2. The rapid sharing of ideas in AI means that any lead a company gains won't last long. As soon as one company finds something new, others quickly learn from it.
  3. Even though AI tools are becoming cheaper, total spending on AI will actually rise. This means more apps will be built, leading to increased overall use of AI technologies.
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Comparing the Financials of Databricks and Snowflake

82 implied HN points • 30 Dec 24
💼 Business Finance Technology Startups Growth Investments
  1. Databricks is growing faster than Snowflake, with a revenue growth rate of 57% compared to Snowflake's 27%. However, Snowflake remains more profitable at this point.
  2. Databricks is currently valued higher than Snowflake due to its strong growth potential and better positioning in the AI market. This could lead to a significant payoff for them in the long run.
  3. Snowflake and Databricks have different business strategies, with Snowflake focusing on profitability and Databricks investing heavily in growth and product development, especially in AI technologies.

Five Lessons for Building Robust AI Agents from Coding Agents

56 implied HN points • 22 Jan 25
🕹 Technology AI Development Software Engineering Data Management Machine Learning
  1. Having clear rules and structured frameworks helps AI work better. By defining specific inputs and outputs, AI can understand what to do more easily.
  2. Using well-organized and detailed data helps AI learn faster. The more context and reasoning behind data points, the better AI can make decisions.
  3. Measuring how well AI performs with clear goals and regular tests is important. This allows AI to keep improving and adapting to different situations.

A few themes for 2025

63 implied HN points • 08 Jan 25
🕹 Technology AI Applications Innovation Market Trends Product Development
  1. AI is getting better at solving problems during its reasoning process. This means we might see smarter AI that can think through complex issues and improve its answers.
  2. Multimodal AI, which handles different types of data like text, images, and videos, is on the rise. In 2025, we can expect more creative and useful applications that actually change how we work.
  3. AI agents, or smart systems that can work independently, are likely to become more common. This year, they might really start acting like human coworkers, helping businesses run more smoothly.

Emerging Wedges in Vertical AI Startups

75 implied HN points • 16 Dec 24
🕹 Technology AI Startups Voice technology Search Algorithms Content Generation
  1. Voice AI helps businesses automate customer interaction, making it easier to handle calls and inquiries. This saves time and cuts costs while providing support 24/7.
  2. Unstructured data parsing allows companies to turn messy, unorganized information into useful data. This helps employees work faster and more accurately by reducing the need for manual data entry.
  3. Verticalized search tools aid in focused research by retrieving relevant, domain-specific information. They are particularly useful in fields like law and finance where specific data is crucial for decision-making.

ServiceTitan S-1 Breakdown

82 implied HN points • 05 Dec 24
💼 Business Finance SaaS IPO Growth Technology
  1. ServiceTitan is a software company that helps tradespeople like plumbers and electricians run their businesses better. They provide tools for managing customer relationships and service workflows.
  2. The company has been growing quickly, with a revenue increase of 24% in the last year. They make money from subscriptions, payment processing fees, and professional services.
  3. ServiceTitan is preparing for an IPO and plans to manage investor concerns about profitability. They have strategies in place to handle potential valuation drops and minimize shareholder dilution.

Big Tech and Generative AI Q3 '24 Update

63 implied HN points • 04 Nov 24
🕹 Technology AI Cloud Computing Data Analysis Software Development Tech Innovation
  1. Amazon is making big strides in AI by providing tools for developers and creating custom chips. They are seeing huge interest in their AI services, which are growing fast despite lower profit margins.
  2. Google is using AI to improve its search capabilities and has rolled out new features to enhance user experience. Their AI models, called Gemini, are being adopted widely across their products and they are investing significantly in infrastructure.
  3. Apple has launched its AI system, Apple Intelligence, focusing on privacy and enhancing the user experience of their products. Although they're investing in AI, their spending is still lower compared to competitors, but they plan to increase their efforts.

OpenAI's o-1 and inference-time scaling laws

63 implied HN points • 28 Oct 24
🕹 Technology AI Models Machine Learning Computing Data science Tech Trends
  1. OpenAI's o-1 model shows that giving AI more time to think can really improve its reasoning skills. This means that performance can go up just by allowing the model to process information longer during use.
  2. The focus in AI development is shifting from just making models bigger to optimizing how they think at the time of use. This could save costs and make it easier to use AI in real-life situations.
  3. With better reasoning abilities, AI can tackle more complex problems. This gives it a chance to solve tasks that were previously too difficult, which might open up many new opportunities.

Big Tech x Generative AI Q3 '24 Update (Part 2)

44 implied HN points • 11 Nov 24
🕹 Technology AI Software Consumer Tech Cloud Computing Open Source
  1. Meta is focusing on open-source AI with the Llama models, claiming they are the most cost-effective and customizable option for developers. They are set to release even better versions soon.
  2. Microsoft’s AI business is booming, especially through their Azure Cloud, with expected revenue surpassing $10 billion. They are integrating AI across many of their products, driving impressive growth.
  3. Both companies are seeing success in using AI to enhance user engagement and advertising effectiveness. Meta has increased user time on their platforms, while Microsoft's AI tools are helping businesses save time and improve efficiency.

Reddit S-1 Breakdown

164 implied HN points • 27 Feb 24
💼 Business Technology Finance Data AI IPO
  1. Reddit boasts a massive user base with 500M monthly active users but faces challenges in user engagement and monetization compared to platforms like Facebook and Snap.
  2. In terms of revenue, Reddit earns primarily from advertising, making $804M in 2023, but needs to address its high R&D spending to achieve profitability.
  3. Reddit holds valuable conversational data with 1 billion posts and 16 billion comments, making it attractive in the AI market; however, it must also navigate potential challenges where AI models could replace users asking questions on the platform.

A few themes and predictions for 2024

170 implied HN points • 30 Dec 23
🕹 Technology AI Startups
  1. Open-source AI models are catching up to GPT-4's performance.
  2. AI applications will expand beyond chat interfaces to include voice-first interfaces and generative interfaces.
  3. Expect an explosion in multimodal AI applications in 2024.

AI and Knowledge Work

119 implied HN points • 22 Feb 24
🕹 Technology AI Software Engineering Customer Support Consulting Productivity
  1. AI is enhancing productivity and quality in knowledge work like software engineering and customer support.
  2. AI benefits are not uniform; it tends to help lower performers more, but can also assist top performers by reducing menial tasks.
  3. AI is not a cure-all; it has limitations and understanding when to use it is crucial for optimal results.

A few product lessons from Threads

233 implied HN points • 11 Jul 23
🕹 Technology Product Development User Acquisition
  1. Thoughtfully solve the cold start problem by implementing strategies like importing social graphs and pre-seeding content.
  2. Distribution is crucial for rapid growth - leverage existing user bases for quick awareness and adoption.
  3. Timing matters - launching your product at the right moment when competitors weaken can be strategic and impactful.

Klaviyo S-1 breakdown

201 implied HN points • 29 Aug 23
💼 Business Technology Finance Marketing Ecommerce Entrepreneurship
  1. Klaviyo is a marketing automation platform that helps retail and eCommerce businesses drive revenue growth through digital channels like email and SMS.
  2. Klaviyo has strong financial metrics, with $585M in revenue over 12 months, impressive retention rates, and profitability with 76% gross margins.
  3. The efficient growth model of Klaviyo, its ability to resonate with eCommerce businesses, and reliance on partnerships like Shopify have contributed to its success.

AI and the Decline of the Open Web

214 implied HN points • 25 Jul 23
🕹 Technology AI Mobile Forums Social media
  1. Many platforms are moving towards closed ecosystems to retain users and monetize data.
  2. Communities have shifted from open forums to more private spaces, limiting accessibility and searchability.
  3. The rise of AI-generated content for search engines could harm the discoverability of genuinely useful content on the open web.

Unpacking OpenAI's Dev Day

132 implied HN points • 15 Nov 23
🕹 Technology AI APIs Developers
  1. OpenAI announced GPT-4 Turbo with longer context length, better cost, and improved function calling.
  2. OpenAI introduced multimodal capabilities in GPT-4 including image generation, speech-to-text, text-to-speech, and vision API.
  3. OpenAI unveiled the GPT Store allowing users to create and monetize custom mini GPTs, fostering indie entrepreneurship and potentially reshaping interface design.

Decoding Elon Musk

100 implied HN points • 30 Jan 24
💼 Business Leadership Innovation Risk-taking Entrepreneurship
  1. Elon Musk's leadership style involves intensity and high standards, pushing employees to their limits for groundbreaking achievements.
  2. Musk's "Algorithm" for product development includes questioning every requirement, deleting unnecessary parts, simplifying, optimizing, accelerating cycle time, and automating.
  3. Musk's problem-solving approach is based on first principles thinking, stripping down complex problems to fundamental truths.

Instacart S-1 Breakdown

145 implied HN points • 06 Sep 23
💼 Business Technology Market Scale Financials Membership
  1. Instacart offers different products like an online grocery marketplace, an enterprise platform, and advertising services.
  2. The US grocery market has significant online growth potential, and Instacart is a major player in capturing that online market share.
  3. Instacart operates as a three-sided marketplace connecting retailers, customers, and shoppers, along with indirect involvement from CPG brands.

Big tech x Generative AI

170 implied HN points • 16 May 23
🕹 Technology AI Infrastructure Developers Applications Search
  1. Microsoft is making strides in Generative AI with Azure x OpenAI services and AI integration in various applications.
  2. Meta focuses on AI recommendations, new experiences, and an open approach to AI models and tools.
  3. Google aims to reimagine core products with AI, offering infrastructure, search enhancements, and AI-based applications.

Big Tech and Generative AI

189 implied HN points • 06 Feb 23
  1. Microsoft is heavily investing in AI, integrating it into all apps like Teams Premium and Microsoft 365.
  2. Google is developing a ChatGPT alternative called Bard and enhancing Google Search with powerful language models.
  3. Meta is focusing on generative AI for end users, internal efficiency, and advertisers while Apple remains tight-lipped about its AI plans.