The hottest Campaign Strategy Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top U.S. Politics Topics

Easy Money

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 03 Feb 12
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Investments Market Trends Political Analysis Campaign Strategy
  1. Investing in political contracts can offer good returns. For example, buying contracts on a candidate's success can make a lot of sense if the odds are in your favor.
  2. Market behavior can be skewed by people's desire to back longshot candidates. This can create opportunities for smart investors who see value in the favorites.
  3. Polls and media narratives can shape public perception of a race. It's important to focus on solid data rather than just what is being reported.

And that, as they say, is what makes a horse race

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 27 Dec 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political media Campaign Strategy Polling Political parties
  1. The media benefits from portraying elections as competitive so they can attract more viewers and advertisers.
  2. Democrats want the GOP primary to appear close so it can weaken resources for the Republican candidates.
  3. Different parties and states involved in the primaries gain advantages and resources when the race seems undecided, even if it really isn't.

On Presidential Debates and Antebellum Nostalgia

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 08 Sep 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaign Strategy Political History Voter Engagement
  1. Presidential debates are very controlled events, limiting candidates' freedom to speak openly. The rules often make debates feel more like scripted shows than real discussions.
  2. Nostalgia for historic debates, like Lincoln-Douglas, might not reflect what voters want today. Those debates were lengthy speeches without direct engagement or questions.
  3. In debates, candidates often focus on attacking each other's positions rather than clearly sharing their own. Debates mainly show how well candidates think on their feet rather than informing voters about policies.

On the idea of "anti-incumbency"

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 18 May 10
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Analysis Political parties Public Opinion Campaign Strategy
  1. There's a lot of talk about anti-incumbency, but it might not be the right term for what's happening. Many races don't even have incumbents, which makes it hard to really call it anti-incumbent sentiment.
  2. Sometimes, it looks like people are more upset with political ideologies rather than just incumbents themselves. Candidates may lose because voters prefer different policies, not just because they're incumbents.
  3. A real anti-incumbent wave would mean voters are unhappy with both parties equally, leading to a big shakeup in Congress. However, it seems like dissatisfaction often targets the party in power instead, which doesn't fit the anti-incumbent idea.