The hottest Campaign Strategy Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top U.S. Politics Topics

Sam Harris Abuses Logic: What He Gets Wrong About a Trump Presidency, and Why DNC Fear-Mongering Needs to Stop

Popular Rationalism • 634 implied HN points • 29 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Campaign Strategy Media Critique Rhetoric
  1. Sam Harris's arguments about Trump rely on logical fallacies. These include blaming Trump for all political problems without considering current issues or the role of other politicians.
  2. Focusing too much on Trump's personality distracts from discussing important policies and outcomes. Some people think that his administration did achieve things that were good for the country.
  3. Harris's fear-based narrative overlooks the strength of America's political system. Many believe that the U.S. can handle extreme leaders without losing democracy.

HUGE: Voters flipping RED in Pennsylvania

COVID Reason • 793 implied HN points • 28 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political parties Public Opinion Campaign Strategy
  1. Republicans in Pennsylvania have gained a lot of new voters this year, especially from Democrats. This change could really impact the upcoming elections.
  2. The data shows that more people are switching their party affiliation to Republican than Democratic, indicating a shift in political support.
  3. Both political parties will need to respond strategically to these changes to stay competitive in the electoral race.

It's Celebrity-Election-Line-Up!

Vicky Ward Investigates • 279 implied HN points • 30 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaign Strategy Voter Engagement Political endorsements
  1. Celebrities are heavily involved in the election, but their influence on voters might not be as strong as hoped. Many people don’t change their voting choices based on celebrity endorsements.
  2. Taylor Swift stands out as a celebrity who could really sway young voters, especially since she has a significant following among undecided young women. If she actively campaigns, she might make a difference.
  3. Past celebrity involvement has sometimes backfired, like in Hillary Clinton's case in 2016. The focus on celebrity endorsements may not connect well with voters, especially those who feel alienated by elitism.

Here's What I'm Reading Tonight on the Election

COVID Reason • 515 implied HN points • 17 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Analysis Campaign Strategy Media influence Voter Behavior
  1. Kamala Harris is facing tough questions about her leadership and actions, which could affect how voters see her as a potential leader. People are starting to doubt her ability to handle future challenges.
  2. There are mixed feelings among Democrats about the upcoming elections; some are feeling hopeful while others are anxious about their chances against Trump. It's a reminder that anything can happen in politics.
  3. The importance of chance in elections is highlighted, suggesting that the outcome might sometimes depend on luck rather than just strategies and campaigning. It's an interesting thought about how unpredictable politics can be.

welp

Freddie deBoer • 14851 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Parties Political theory Voting Rights Campaign Strategy
  1. People are frustrated with the Democrats because they can't form a strong winning team. This makes it hard to have a good opposition party against the Republicans.
  2. Losing elections isn't just about blaming certain individuals or outside forces. It’s important for the party to look at its own problems and fix them.
  3. Even when things seem bad for the Democrats, there’s always hope for improvement. It’s essential to understand what’s wrong and work on solutions.
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Dingus of the week: Democratic party spending $20 million on men

Men Yell at Me • 391 implied HN points • 30 May 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Campaign Strategy Voter Demographics Party Dynamics Public Policy
  1. The Democratic National Committee is planning to spend $20 million to win back young male voters, but many believe this may not address the root causes of their declining support.
  2. Research shows that male support for Democrats drops significantly when a female candidate is on the ballot, highlighting potential biases among male voters.
  3. Some suggestions for the Democratic platform include humorous ideas that appeal to men, like guaranteed matches on dating apps, but the real issue may be deeper societal attitudes rather than party policies.

Let's Look at the Map. Trump May Not Need Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Vicky Ward Investigates • 119 implied HN points • 18 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaign Strategy Election Dynamics Political Analysis Media influence Voting Trends
  1. Trump might benefit because Kamala Harris hasn't distanced herself from Biden enough.
  2. Spending a lot on ads may not help much once you've reached most voters, so the extra funds might not matter.
  3. The electoral map shows that Trump might not need to win Michigan or Pennsylvania to succeed.

We Are Losers

Singal-Minded • 3790 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political movement Election Analysis Voter Behavior Campaign Strategy Political Commentary
  1. The anti-Trump movement is not working as it should; many think it needs a complete overhaul. People involved have gotten too caught up in their own beliefs and are not effectively addressing voters' real concerns.
  2. Despite being passionate against Trump, many in this movement are losing sight of what truly matters to average voters. They may feel strongly about their views, but those feelings are not resonating with most Americans.
  3. Instead of focusing on who to blame for their failures, the anti-Trump movement should rethink their approach. They need to attract more realistic and relatable voices to have a better chance at winning in the future.

It's 2004 all over again

Silver Bulletin • 1093 implied HN points • 12 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political parties Electoral process Campaign Strategy Public Opinion
  1. Democrats are feeling stronger about their chances after recent elections, similar to how they felt in 2004. They believe they can regain control and improve their strategy moving forward.
  2. Trump, like Bush in his second term, may face challenges and unpopularity. Many voters who supported him might not be as forgiving now that he no longer has to run for elections.
  3. The electoral playing field has become more balanced for Democrats. With fewer structural disadvantages, they are optimistic about competing for Senate and House seats in future elections.

SBSQ #15: Democrats have a "fool me twice" problem

Silver Bulletin • 642 implied HN points • 26 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting behavior Political theory Party Dynamics Campaign Strategy
  1. Voters often feel betrayed when political parties don't keep their promises, which can lead them to punish those parties, even if they prefer their policies in the long run.
  2. Democrats have faced a challenge where their messages seem abstract and hard to connect with, making it difficult for voters to feel excited or trust them.
  3. Prediction markets and other indicators may make accurate calls about races, but there's a question of whether they are just lucky or truly insightful, reflecting the unpredictability of voter behavior.

Toxic Femininity And Wokeism Are Driving Men, Jews, Billionaires, and Muslims Away From Harris To Trump

Michael Shellenberger • 2417 implied HN points • 26 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political parties Public Opinion Campaign Strategy Voting behavior
  1. There seems to be a shift in American politics with more people moving their support from Kamala Harris to Donald Trump. Many groups, including men and some minority communities, are showing more interest in Trump.
  2. Recent polls indicate that Harris and Trump are in a very close race. Despite being behind, Harris's supporters are concerned about her chances of winning and the strength of her appeals.
  3. Trump is gaining support from various community leaders, including some in the Muslim community, which may be surprising given his past positions. This suggests a potential change in how different voter groups align politically.

Beware the Haley-RINO Trump Trap in New Hampshire and South Carolina

Peter Navarro's Taking Back Trump's America • 2751 implied HN points • 07 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Candidates Campaign Strategy
  1. Nikki Haley is being used as a tool by the RINO establishment to try to defeat Trump in the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries.
  2. There is concern about crossover Democrat voters influencing the outcome of the Republican primaries in New Hampshire.
  3. Even if Haley gains momentum in New Hampshire and South Carolina, Trump's strong base and national support make him likely to secure the nomination.

The Audit: 2024

Comment is Freed • 132 implied HN points • 21 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Analysis Campaign Strategy Public Policy
  1. It's important to review past predictions to see what worked and what didn't. This practice helps improve future insights and keeps one accountable.
  2. Analyzing elections at a detailed level, like looking at specific councils or seats, can provide more accurate predictions. This method shows the need to understand local issues better.
  3. Finding positive trends in difficult situations can be tough but necessary. It's good to challenge a negative mindset and look for hope in the community.

What is the Positive Vision for Biden’s Second Term?

The Liberal Patriot • 1395 implied HN points • 17 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election Campaign Strategy Patriotism Bipartisanship
  1. Voters are looking for a positive vision and clear mission from leaders.
  2. Biden should focus on a 'pro-worker, pro-family, pro-America' agenda for a successful second term campaign.
  3. Instead of relying on negative messaging, Biden should emphasize patriotism, humility, and unity to appeal to a broader audience.

It’s Trump 2024 Versus a Never-Trump Cartel

Peter Navarro's Taking Back Trump's America • 2122 implied HN points • 07 Jun 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election Political parties Media Candidates Campaign Strategy
  1. The 2024 Republican presidential primary is a battle between Trump and a well-funded Never-Trump Cartel.
  2. The Never-Trump Cartel includes dark money interests, media conglomerates, and Silicon Valley figures.
  3. Various political figures like Nikki Haley and Chris Christie are part of the Never-Trump Cartel aiming to challenge and diminish Trump's support.

Why Did Trump Win?

Vinay Prasad's Observations and Thoughts • 272 implied HN points • 08 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voter Behavior Political Analysis Public Policy Campaign Strategy
  1. Trump won because different voters had different reasons for supporting him. Issues like immigration and inflation resonated with many.
  2. His clear stances on controversial topics, like abortion and transgender issues, attracted some voters who felt more represented by him.
  3. Trump's personality and media presence helped him gain a following, while perceptions about his opponent's weaknesses were also influential.

Handicapping the Trump-DeSantis Faceoff

Peter Navarro's Taking Back Trump's America • 2024 implied HN points • 24 May 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Candidates Policies Campaign Strategy Political Analysis
  1. DeSantis may try to claim Trump can't win by showing misleading polls in key battleground states.
  2. Trump might urge supporters to move to more MAGA-friendly media outlets like Newsmax and Real America's Voice.
  3. DeSantis may position himself as an anti-lockdown, anti-vaccine mandate candidate to try to split Trump's base.

Is Political Advertising Obsolete?

The Liberal Patriot • 943 implied HN points • 07 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Advertising Campaign Strategy Voter Behavior Political Trust
  1. Political advertising may not be as effective as believed, with many Americans tuning out or not being influenced by ads.
  2. Trust is essential in communication, and political ads struggle to gain trust from the public compared to corporate advertisements.
  3. The network effect, where people trust information from close contacts, is more influential in political persuasion than traditional advertising.

Taking Illiberalism seriously

Theory Matters • 5 implied HN points • 11 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political theory Authoritarianism Democracy Campaign Strategy Political Analysis
  1. Illiberal movements often get underestimated because people don't take them seriously. This leads to ignoring deeper issues that let these movements grow.
  2. The current political climate is shaped by performance and storytelling, rather than just facts. To connect with people, liberals need to engage in better narratives.
  3. Rights and values need a strong reason behind them. Simply saying rights matter isn’t enough; there needs to be a clear understanding of why they are important.

One Sneaky Reason Why Sports Media Shunned Kamala Harris

House of Strauss • 44 implied HN points • 20 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaign Strategy Political culture Media influence Voter Demographics Elections
  1. Kamala Harris struggled to connect with the sports media, which is a vital cultural space in America. This made it hard for her campaign to reach younger audiences who are more engaged with sports than with traditional politics.
  2. Young men have shifted their political support away from the Democrats, making it tough for the party to connect with this demographic. This change has been influenced by cultural figures and platforms that resonate more with younger guys.
  3. Sports media is becoming more conservative, which complicates efforts from political figures like Harris to gain support. As sports and culture merge with conservative values, it becomes tricky for athletes and media personalities to engage in politics.

The Loser Triad

Thinking about... • 304 implied HN points • 19 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Behavior Legal issues Campaign Strategy Political violence
  1. When Trump loses, he has a pattern: he claims he actually won. This usually happens soon after the votes are counted.
  2. He often files lawsuits against the election results, sometimes even before the election is over.
  3. Trump might encourage violence around election day. If he declares victory early, it's a sign he likely lost.

What’s in it for Haley to continue?

steveinskeep • 314 implied HN points • 24 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Analysis Media Coverage Campaign Strategy
  1. Haley may benefit from staying in the race, as challengers can gain attention and build support for future endeavors.
  2. It's crucial to accurately cover politicians, like Trump, by representing their words and tone fairly to provide proper context and understanding.
  3. Journalists should aim to portray politicians, such as Trump, accurately by showcasing their speaking style and overall themes in reporting.

ProtestGPT — Live Chat

Activist Futurism • 99 implied HN points • 11 Jan 24
🕹 Technology AI Campaign Strategy
  1. ProtestGPT is an AI tool that generates unique protest ideas for activists, offering innovative and visually impactful approaches to draw attention.
  2. For a space exploration campaign, a silent stargazing protest held at night symbolizing humanity's yearning for the stars is suggested for a powerful visual impact and media attention.
  3. For a Universal Basic Income campaign, creating a 'UBI Experience Week' with interactive installations showcasing UBI benefits to engage the public and shift opinions is recommended.

RFK Jr. probably won't hurt Biden. He might even help him.

Silver Bulletin • 238 implied HN points • 04 Oct 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Analysis Campaign Strategy Polling
  1. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s potential third-party run may not necessarily harm President Biden, and could even benefit him.
  2. Historically, third-party bids have had varied impacts and are not always spoilers in elections.
  3. Polls suggest that Trump supporters view Kennedy more favorably, and his issue positions may not align well with the college-educated Democratic base.

The State of the Union, and the shape of the Presidential race

The Future, Now and Then • 110 implied HN points • 08 Mar 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election Campaign Strategy Media Coverage Supreme Court
  1. Biden's State of the Union speech signaled his reelection message and the upcoming Presidential race is expected to be extremely close.
  2. Biden effectively contrasted his record with Trump's, using past actions to his advantage.
  3. Media coverage may continue to focus on Biden's age, but the expectations set for him allow him to surpass them, while Trump's campaign quality may work to Biden's benefit due to Trump's past incompetence.

Why Liberals Should Vote for President Trump

Outspoken with Dr Naomi Wolf • 5 implied HN points • 04 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political parties Voting Rights Political Commentary Campaign Strategy
  1. Vote for Trump because Vice President Harris didn't do her job when it came to President Biden's health. If she had acted on it, she could have become President, which raises questions about our national security.
  2. Trump won't ban abortion completely as some fear. Many states still allow safe and legal abortions, and Trump has shown support for access during the first trimester.
  3. Having RFK Jr. on board with Trump means the environment will still have a strong advocate in the White House. He has a good track record for environmental issues, which could lead to effective policies under a Trump administration.

10 WAYS TO COVER/WATCH/ANALYZE THE IOWA CAUCUSES LIKE AN *AMATEUR*

Wide World of News • 0 implied HN points • 12 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election Analysis Campaign Strategy Media Coverage Presidential Race Polling
  1. Don't underestimate the impact of the Iowa Poll on generating or killing campaign momentum.
  2. Be cautious about drawing conclusions from live cable news coverage of select caucuses.
  3. Pay attention to the semiotic significance of where candidates deliver speeches and how well they are covered.

Donald Trump, Poet

Wide World of News • 0 implied HN points • 07 May 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election Debt Ceiling Ukraine Campaign Strategy
  1. Donald Trump is seen as a poet in his communication style, which contrasts with Ron DeSantis's more pragmatic approach.
  2. The essence of politics is often described as 'campaigning in poetry and governing in prose,' highlighting the different communication styles needed for different stages of leadership.
  3. Public perception and electoral success can be strongly influenced by a candidate's ability to connect with voters through compelling storytelling or emotional rhetoric.

On Warm Buckets of Piss***

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 22 Apr 12
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Science Campaign Strategy Political History
  1. Choosing a vice president usually doesn't change the election outcome much. It often matters more what the other side does than who you pick.
  2. A vice president can affect things significantly if the president dies. This is an important reason to think carefully about who to choose.
  3. Political parties often prioritize short-term gains from a VP selection over long-term party strength. It's better to choose someone who can lead well if needed.