The hottest Political Analysis Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top U.S. Politics Topics

Harris’s Lost Week

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 2298 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Analysis Campaigning Public Opinion Media influence
  1. Kamala Harris's speeches and actions during a crucial week seemed overshadowed by Joe Biden's controversial remarks. This created confusion and drew attention away from her message.
  2. Donald Trump was actively campaigning and making headlines, which left Harris and the Democrats trying to play catch-up. Trump's visibility and campaigning style were noticeably more vigorous.
  3. There are signs that Democrats may be struggling with voter enthusiasm, especially among key voter groups. Despite some polls showing enthusiasm, early voting results suggest weaknesses in support.

The Fight

The Ruffian • 116 implied HN points • 03 Mar 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Current Events Public Opinion Policy Debate Election Campaigns
  1. Moral outrage is sometimes necessary and ignoring it can feel wrong. It's not always smart to be overly sophisticated about serious issues.
  2. There are often simple truths that are hard to accept, but dismissing them as just tough love is misguided.
  3. It’s important to engage genuinely with significant events rather than adopt a cynical or indifferent approach. Authenticity matters in discussions about serious topics.

The Most Accurate Pollster of 2020 Releases Their Prediction!

COVID Reason • 713 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling Elections Voter trends Political Analysis Demographics
  1. Atlas Intel was the most accurate pollster in the 2020 election, using a digital-first approach to track voter demographics effectively.
  2. In 2024, Trump is gaining more support among Hispanic and Black voters compared to 2020, showing a notable trend.
  3. Kamala Harris has solid support among Democrats but is struggling more with Independents compared to Biden in 2020.

Trump starts to break things

Noahpinion • 74295 implied HN points • 02 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Tariffs Trade Relations Political Analysis International relations
  1. Trump's new tariffs on Canada and Mexico could raise prices for American consumers. These tariffs might hurt people's wallets and lead to higher costs for everyday goods.
  2. The tariffs may disrupt American manufacturers' supply chains, making it harder for them to compete. This could lower the production efficiency of U.S. companies that rely on imports from these countries.
  3. There is uncertainty about the impact of these tariffs on trade relations. If Trump keeps them in place, it could harm relationships with allies and create economic instability.

Two steps backward

Comment is Freed • 126 implied HN points • 01 Mar 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Government Elections Foreign Policy Political Analysis Media
  1. Trump's meetings often feel like a drama, with him at the center trying to create the best storyline. If something isn’t working, he may just drop it and move on to another idea.
  2. Dealing with real-world politics is tricky and can take a long time, unlike in a soap opera where things happen quickly. Negotiations involve many people who want their own say.
  3. The U.S. administration's relationship with Ukraine can shift quickly, and the past week's discussions show a mix of friendly and tense moments.
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THE SHOW NOTES: Biden's October Surprise

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 1199 implied HN points • 30 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Government Public Opinion Political Analysis Legislation
  1. Biden made controversial comments calling Trump supporters 'garbage' just before the election, which drew backlash from various political figures.
  2. The White House quickly tried to clarify Biden's remarks, but many were unconvinced and criticized him for the language used.
  3. Kamala Harris also faced scrutiny for her performance in a TV interview, highlighting challenges within the Democratic campaign leading up to the election.

At least five interesting things: Chaos Blitz edition (#59)

Noahpinion • 15647 implied HN points • 13 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Elections Government Policy Political Commentary Public Opinion
  1. Trump's recent actions create a lot of chaos in government, making it hard for institutions like FEMA and scientific research to function properly. There's concern that this unpredictability could harm everyday services.
  2. Despite some claims to the contrary, U.S. economic data is generally reliable and shows that the economy is doing well, with improvements in wages and job opportunities for most Americans.
  3. China is becoming strong in technology by having multiple industries that support each other, which poses a challenge for U.S. companies because they don’t have the same kind of interconnected industrial ecosystem.

Announcing My New Column in The Washington Post

Thinking in Bets • 138 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voter Behavior Political Analysis Opinion Data interpretation
  1. Annie Duke is starting a new opinion column in The Washington Post, focusing on risk and decision-making. She'll share insights on how we interpret important data.
  2. The column will discuss the misleading nature of data interpretation, particularly regarding Black voters' support in elections. Duke argues that misinterpretations can be more harmful than misinformation.
  3. Annie's background as a decision scientist and former poker player helps her analyze how people make choices, which she'll explore in her writing.

Mark your calendar for my first Substack Live!

Sex and the State • 15 implied HN points • 22 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political strategy Democratic Party Political Analysis Current Events
  1. There's a live event happening on February 26th, from 11 am to noon, where guests will discuss important political topics. It's a great chance to learn about new ideas.
  2. To join the live stream, people need to download the Substack mobile app and turn on notifications. This way, they'll know when it's time to watch.
  3. The event will be discussing a new project called 'The Rebuild' which aims to bring Democrats back to core issues. It's aimed at creating a positive change in politics.

Elon Musk and spiky intelligence

Silver Bulletin • 705 implied HN points • 25 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Public Figures Social Commentary Media Critique
  1. Spiky intelligence means someone can be really smart in some areas but not so great in others. Elon Musk, for example, shines in tech and entrepreneurship but may lack emotional intelligence.
  2. Highly intelligent people, like Musk, often have strong ideas but can make poor decisions due to overconfidence or lack of well-rounded skills. It's crucial to evaluate their actions without either extreme praise or blame.
  3. In industries like tech, people with spiky intelligence often succeed because they excel in specific skills, but may also come across as difficult or lacking in social awareness.

Sam Harris Abuses Logic: What He Gets Wrong About a Trump Presidency, and Why DNC Fear-Mongering Needs to Stop

Popular Rationalism • 634 implied HN points • 29 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Campaign Strategy Media Critique Rhetoric
  1. Sam Harris's arguments about Trump rely on logical fallacies. These include blaming Trump for all political problems without considering current issues or the role of other politicians.
  2. Focusing too much on Trump's personality distracts from discussing important policies and outcomes. Some people think that his administration did achieve things that were good for the country.
  3. Harris's fear-based narrative overlooks the strength of America's political system. Many believe that the U.S. can handle extreme leaders without losing democracy.

Here’s Where I Think the Race Stands

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 4056 implied HN points • 21 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Polls Public Opinion Political Analysis
  1. Trump appears to be enjoying the campaign more than Harris, which might give him an edge in the race. People respond to candidates who look relatable and fun.
  2. Polls show a growing support for Trump, suggesting he could win the Electoral College if the election were today. Democrats seem to be worried about their campaign's effectiveness.
  3. Voters are more concerned about their everyday economic struggles than the political drama surrounding Trump. Many feel the current administration isn't helping their financial situation.

Weekend Update #122: Trump Opens His Mouth and Putin Comes Out

Phillips’s Newsletter • 250 implied HN points • 02 Mar 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis International relations Media influence War reporting Public Perception
  1. Trump appears to fully support Putin's views, especially regarding Ukraine's military situation. This shows a concerning alignment with Russia's narrative.
  2. There is a belief that Ukraine is in worse shape than it actually is. Recent reports indicate that the Ukrainian military is holding strong despite Russian advances.
  3. European leaders need to recognize that Trump cannot be a reliable ally for Ukraine and should focus on supportive strategies independent of the U.S.

"You don’t have the cards right now" – "I'm not playing cards Mr President" – "Oh you're playing cards, you're gambling with the lives of millions of people"

eugyppius: a plague chronicle • 316 implied HN points • 01 Mar 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Relations Political Analysis International Affairs Leadership Conflict
  1. Zelensky has been traveling to talk to world leaders about UKraine, but some people find his approach irritating. He believes in unity and democracy, but others think he’s become too much of a celebrity.
  2. A recent press conference between Zelensky and Trump turned sour, showing a breakdown in US-Ukraine relations. It highlighted disagreements over the war in Ukraine and differing views on responsibility for the conflict.
  3. The press conference was meant to be private negotiations but turned into a public disagreement. Many believe Zelensky didn’t handle the meeting well, and it may have lasting effects on their relationship.

How Harris vanquished in the Fox News interview

The Signorile Report • 3037 implied HN points • 17 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Interviews Elections Political Analysis Media Public Figures
  1. Kamala Harris handled her interview with confidence and composure, showing that she could push back against tough questions without losing her cool. This made her come across as strong and presidential.
  2. Harris was able to expose the bias in the interview and challenge misleading comments made by the host. By doing this, she highlighted Trump's deceptive rhetoric about using the military against Americans.
  3. Despite the hostile environment, Harris's performance could inspire viewers who might question Fox News narratives. Her smart and controlled responses might even encourage some to seek out the truth beyond what they hear on that network.

The Oracle Mouths Off, Part One

In the Writing Burrow • 5372 implied HN points • 09 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Analysis Political Commentary Future Predictions
  1. Be careful about what you want because your wishes can lead to unexpected results. Sometimes what seems good can actually create chaos.
  2. There are many possible futures, and history shows that power struggles often happen when leaders are weak or chaotic. This can lead to conflict and instability.
  3. In a political power struggle, allies and supporters can turn against one another. People must think ahead and be ready for changes in leadership and power dynamics.

Interview With Tucker Carlson: Looking Back on Eight Years of Political Mysteries

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 7472 implied HN points • 27 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political media Investigative Journalism Trump Era Political Analysis
  1. There are new investigations into important issues like intelligence activities and the origins of Covid, which could bring new information to light.
  2. The changing media landscape is becoming more significant, especially with the decline of traditional news outlets, creating space for alternative voices.
  3. The conversation also touched on a range of political topics, indicating a sense of curiosity and hope for uncovering the truth in the coming years.

How we'll know if Trump is going to sell America out to China

Noahpinion • 33118 implied HN points • 13 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Trade Relations National Security Political Analysis Elections
  1. Export controls on technology, especially semiconductors, are really important for keeping the U.S. ahead of China. If Trump stops these controls, it could mean he's not serious about standing up to Chinese power.
  2. There are doubts about Trump's commitment to manufacturing jobs, as his previous promises may not hold true. His tariffs might just be for show and could even hurt U.S. manufacturing instead of helping it.
  3. China is a serious threat to U.S. dominance, and the way Trump handles trade and technology policy will be key in determining the future relationship between the two countries.

Trump's vibes-driven victory narrative crashes and burns

The Signorile Report • 2398 implied HN points • 15 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Polling Media Political Analysis
  1. Recent polls show that Trump is not leading as he claimed, with Harris actually holding a slight lead in important voter groups. This means his narrative of an easy victory is not supported by the data.
  2. Trump's recent public appearances and behavior have raised concerns about his fitness for office. Harris is effectively highlighting these issues, contrasting her own active campaigning with Trump's evasiveness.
  3. Harris is showing strong leadership by engaging with multiple media outlets and audiences. This approach seems to resonate more with voters, while Trump's awkward town hall meetings are backfiring.

The Musklash

Read Max • 9221 implied HN points • 17 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Public Figures Media Criticism Social Commentary
  1. Elon Musk has faced backlash from the gaming community after failing at a game he claimed to be good at. Gamers are calling out his dishonesty about his gaming skills.
  2. Musk's controversial comments on immigration and his partnership with nationalist groups have made some of his previous supporters uneasy. This shows a growing divide in the political groups that used to back him.
  3. Despite losing support from various communities, Musk's wealth still protects him from serious consequences. However, the criticism he receives might affect his need for approval and popularity.

Top Links 647 Trump & the American gentry. The Federal government that just doesn't grow. Showing off & the English Polanyi.

Chartbook • 500 implied HN points • 12 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Trump Government American Society Public Opinion
  1. Many Trump supporters come from the American gentry, which includes small business owners. They play a key role in his support base.
  2. The Federal government is not expanding significantly, which can impact its effectiveness.
  3. There is an interest in cultural themes, such as showing off and references to the English thinker Polanyi, pointing to deeper societal issues.

How Biden Helped Bring War to Ukraine

Nonzero Newsletter • 542 implied HN points • 24 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy International relations Military Affairs Elections Political Analysis
  1. The U.S. adopted a more aggressive stance toward Russia after Biden became president, which changed the situation in Ukraine. This shift is seen as a major factor that contributed to the outbreak of war.
  2. Ukrainian President Zelensky initially aimed to make peace with Russia but faced pressure from both local nationalists and U.S. officials who feared his approach would weaken Ukraine's position.
  3. Trump's presidency was associated with a different strategy towards Russia that allowed for some diplomatic conversations. Some argue that his policies might have prevented the large-scale conflict we see now.

My Decade with Donald Trump

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 6821 implied HN points • 18 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Reporting Public Opinion Elections Media Relations Political Analysis
  1. The author has a close relationship with Donald Trump and has often received personal greetings from him. This shows that Trump engages with journalists in a unique and informal way.
  2. The author was one of the few journalists who accurately predicted Trump's 2016 election win, gaining a reputation for understanding his supporters.
  3. Despite criticism for being too sympathetic to Trump, the author believes their reporting is based on genuine observation and experience with his voter base.

Top Links 645 Trump's assault on the North American division of labour continued. How the eurdollar system works. North Korea's aerial trash bombardment & FDR on the Arsenal of Democracy.

Chartbook • 472 implied HN points • 10 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy Tariffs Economics International relations Political Analysis
  1. Trump is pushing for tariffs on aluminium and steel imports, which could affect the US economy. It's important to know that the US relies a lot on imported aluminium.
  2. The eurdollar system is explained, which is key for understanding international finance. It plays a significant role in global trade and economics.
  3. North Korea is using aerial trash bombardment as a tactic, highlighting serious issues of conflict. This kind of action reflects the ongoing tensions in the region.

Why is Europe Staying in an Abusive Relationship?

Phillips’s Newsletter • 174 implied HN points • 28 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Relations Political Analysis International relations Trump presidency European Politics
  1. Europe feels trapped in a bad relationship with Trump, similar to how people stay in abusive situations due to fear and intimidation.
  2. Many European leaders don't recognize the unhealthy dynamics at play, which causes them to excuse Trump's actions instead of addressing their own weaknesses.
  3. To truly protect themselves, Europe needs to acknowledge the reality of this relationship and start acting more independently and confidently.

Putting on Ayers!

Vicky Ward Investigates • 119 implied HN points • 28 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Media Coverage Political Figures Public Opinion Election insights
  1. Nick Ayers, who used to work for Mike Pence, criticized Pence and General Kelly on television. This shows some tension in their relationships.
  2. The interview with Ayers was aired on Fox News, highlighting his perspective on current political dynamics.
  3. Ayers' comments might surprise many, as they come from someone who was close to Pence during his time in office. It raises questions about loyalty and political alliances.

PROJECT SYNDICATE: Trump's Smoke & Mirrors

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 884 implied HN points • 09 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Media Studies Public Policy Trump administration Political Commentary
  1. Trump's actions often focus on getting attention rather than creating real change. Many of his plans are more about performance than effective policy.
  2. The media needs to separate Trump's true policies from his showmanship, but many outlets are caught up in the drama instead.
  3. Trump's potential policies could harm the economy, and it's crucial for clear information to be shared so the public can understand the impact.

February 23, 2025

Letters from an American • 29 implied HN points • 24 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Government Elections Legislation Political parties Political Analysis
  1. People are starting to see through the lies of powerful figures like Trump and Musk, realizing their true goal is personal gain over the public good.
  2. Despite public backlash, Trump and his allies are intensifying their actions, showing a disregard for the law and popular opinion.
  3. Senators and historians warn that we are facing a serious threat to democracy and the Constitution, urging Congress to act to protect our government from becoming an unchecked power.

What You Don't Know

Points And Figures • 1172 implied HN points • 16 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Government Policy Political Analysis Corruption
  1. It's important to know your strengths and weaknesses. Being honest about what you don't know can help you make better decisions.
  2. A disciplined process is key in investing. By evaluating your approach rather than blaming others, you can learn from both your successes and failures.
  3. Technological advancements are shaping our future. If we embrace progress, it could lead to significant improvements in our quality of life.

Today's Reads: Election Tensions!

COVID Reason • 376 implied HN points • 23 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political strategy Party Dynamics Political Analysis
  1. Kamala Harris is under pressure as she tries to connect with voters, but her efforts may not be making a big impact. It's important for her to change her focus to what people really need.
  2. Donald Trump remains a strong figure in politics, gaining attention despite the challenges he faces. This shows how both parties have shaped the current political climate.
  3. Democrats are worried about losing support from Black voters and need to find ways to regain that trust. Knowing what matters to this group could change the election's outcome.

Fight Song

Magic + Loss • 636 implied HN points • 19 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Activism Political Analysis Civics
  1. Being active in democracy means accepting conflict and standing up to your opponents. It’s important to be ready to fight for what you believe in.
  2. Donald Trump uses intimidation to get support, and he has made it clear he won't accept losing another election. This creates fear and uncertainty among his opponents.
  3. Past experiences show that when Trump doesn't get his way, it can lead to chaos. It's crucial to stand firm against his tactics to protect democratic values.

7 Reasons Democrats Should Be Optimistic About Their Chances in 2026 and 2028

Noahpinion • 23176 implied HN points • 15 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political parties Public Opinion Campaign strategies Political Analysis
  1. Lower voter turnout could actually help Democrats win in future elections, as they tend to do better when fewer voters show up.
  2. Republicans face a challenge in finding a strong leader to replace Trump, which may hurt their ability to energize voters in upcoming elections.
  3. Historically, when one party is in power, the public often shifts against them, suggesting Democrats might benefit in the next elections.

Morning Reads: Biden, Harris, Trump, and More in the Political Mix

COVID Reason • 376 implied HN points • 22 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voter Behavior Campaign strategies Political Analysis Political Tactics
  1. Biden may actually be the best candidate we've had, as some articles suggest he knows how to handle the country's problems well.
  2. Kamala Harris needs to change her approach to reach non-college-educated white voters better, especially in key swing states.
  3. There are signs that some middle-class Black voters are shifting their support to the right, which could change the voting landscape.

With January 6th and Trump, the Truth Has Always Been Bad Enough

Freddie deBoer • 5476 implied HN points • 07 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Current Events Media Critique
  1. The January 6th event can be seen as a big disturbance, but it wasn't an organized coup that succeeded in taking power. It was mainly a chaotic riot by people who didn't really know what they were doing.
  2. Claiming that Trump's actions represent a real dictatorship doesn't align with what actually happened, as he did eventually hand over power to Biden. He behaved more like a popular leader using fear to gain support.
  3. There is a tendency among some people to hype up threats posed by Trump rather than look at the situation clearly. This makes the discussion about his impact more emotional than factual.

Is The Harris Campaign Imploding?

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 1498 implied HN points • 08 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Candidates Polls Political Analysis
  1. Kamala Harris' support in key states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania is declining, which could hurt her campaign.
  2. Recent mistakes in interviews have raised doubts about her ability to lead and communicate clearly sobre important issues.
  3. Despite struggling, there is still a chance for Harris to succeed in the campaign if she can turn things around.

Weekend Report: What's going on?

The Signorile Report • 1099 implied HN points • 12 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Political parties Public Opinion Political Analysis
  1. Trump is struggling to raise small donations and is upset that Harris is outpacing him in fundraising. This has made him focus more on aggressive immigration policies.
  2. Kamala Harris shared her medical report showing she is in great health, which puts pressure on Trump to release his own health information.
  3. JD Vance has been inconsistent about acknowledging Biden's 2020 election win, raising questions about his honesty after saying both that Trump won and that Biden did.

OSD 313: How many guns is a lot of guns? Let’s do the math.

Open Source Defense • 56 implied HN points • 18 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Gun Control Legislation Public Safety Political Analysis
  1. Buying 34 guns in just five months is very unusual, but not impossible given the size of the gun-owning population. Some very dedicated collectors might purchase in large quantities over time.
  2. The lawsuit against gun sellers for this buyer was dismissed because each seller had no reason to suspect he was a straw purchaser. They had little information due to his spreading purchases across multiple stores.
  3. Even though some people do buy a lot of guns quickly, it's a small portion of gun owners. Selling to responsible buyers while preventing illegal purchases is a tough balance for sellers.

Giant Electoral Asteroid Strikes America's Intellectual Class, Which Fails to Notice

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 20001 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Analysis Public Opinion Media Critique Political Movements
  1. The American intellectual class seems out of touch with the reality of elections. They often seem surprised by the outcomes despite all the past events leading up to them.
  2. There has been a lot of strong messaging against certain political figures, but it hasn't changed public opinion much. This disconnect shows the ineffectiveness of their strategies.
  3. Many people feel that the way news and ideas are spread has created a bubble, leaving critical voices unheard. It's as if they are communicating from a place that doesn't reflect the views of everyday people.

Bari Weiss: The Comprehensive Failure of Justin Trudeau

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 4437 implied HN points • 07 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Leadership Government International relations Liberalism
  1. Justin Trudeau was seen as a hero for liberalism but many of his actions were against liberal values and didn't resonate with people.
  2. His resignation came after a series of internal issues in his government, which he blamed, but the root problems were his poor ideas.
  3. The challenges he faced were not just personal but stemmed from unpopular policies and decisions that did not reflect public sentiment.

Here's What I'm Reading Tonight on the Election

COVID Reason • 515 implied HN points • 17 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Analysis Campaign Strategy Media influence Voter Behavior
  1. Kamala Harris is facing tough questions about her leadership and actions, which could affect how voters see her as a potential leader. People are starting to doubt her ability to handle future challenges.
  2. There are mixed feelings among Democrats about the upcoming elections; some are feeling hopeful while others are anxious about their chances against Trump. It's a reminder that anything can happen in politics.
  3. The importance of chance in elections is highlighted, suggesting that the outcome might sometimes depend on luck rather than just strategies and campaigning. It's an interesting thought about how unpredictable politics can be.