The hottest Political Analysis Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top U.S. Politics Topics

Note: Primary Coverage in Loudoun County, Virginia

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 5028 implied HN points • 03 Mar 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election coverage Political Analysis
  1. Loudoun County, Virginia, witnessed significant political shifts from supporting Biden in 2020 to a narrower win for the Democratic governor in 2021 due to a school controversy.
  2. Media portrayed the unrest in Loudoun as a racist revolt and attributed it to white supremacy, while local observations presented a more complex and nuanced reality.
  3. The author plans to revisit the area for primary coverage regarding the upcoming Super Tuesday election, aiming to offer alternative perspectives to mainstream narratives.

"America last."

Today's Edition Newsletter • 8333 implied HN points • 08 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Policy Immigration Election Legislation
  1. Senate Republicans blocked funding for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, prioritizing Trump and Putin's interests over America's.
  2. The GOP is being surreptitiously controlled by Vladimir Putin through Trump, as seen through Tucker Carlson's actions.
  3. Immigration actually contributes a lot to the US economy, as reported by the CBO, despite common misconceptions.

The Ballad of Ron and Nikki

Bulwark+ • 8431 implied HN points • 22 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election Analysis Republican party Political Analysis
  1. The 2024 Republican primary campaign illustrated strong motivated reasoning in predicting Donald Trump as the nominee.
  2. Basic lies from political actors should not be normalized by the media, and accountability is crucial in political analysis.
  3. The 'Biden crime problem' actually began under Trump, and recent data shows a decline in violent crime rates.

Exit DeSantis

Bulwark+ • 8078 implied HN points • 22 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election Republican party Presidential campaign Trump administration Political Analysis
  1. Ron DeSantis ended his presidential campaign by endorsing Donald Trump, after a campaign that failed due to strategic blunders and lack of appeal.
  2. Donald Trump's recent actions demonstrate admiration for dictators, spreading conspiracy theories, mocking opponents, and continuing aggressive rhetoric.
  3. Republican party dynamics show a strong preference for Trump over other candidates, even if they exhibit extreme behaviors or controversies.

The Herd of Independent Minds Stampedes Off the Cliff

Bulwark+ • 6603 implied HN points • 23 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election Authoritarianism Media Political Analysis
  1. The Republican Party is now Trump's party, with members rushing to show loyalty despite the consequences.
  2. Ben Shapiro, once a Never Trumper, endorsed Donald Trump, showcasing a shift in allegiance.
  3. Many individuals, including politicians, media figures, and billionaires, are downplaying the threats posed by Trump, showing a trend of denialism and minimizing concerns.
Get a weekly roundup of the best Substack posts, by hacker news affinity:

We're about to witness the first "extremely online" Tory opposition

Odds and Ends of History • 1340 implied HN points • 26 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Conservative Party UK politics Political Analysis
  1. The Conservative Party is heading towards an 'extremely online' opposition with concerning behavior and radicalization.
  2. Some controversial actions by party members like Liz Truss are seen as potentially enhancing their standing within the party, rather than being disqualifying.
  3. The shift towards extreme behavior within the Conservative Party reflects a new structural reality in British politics that may lead to significant challenges in the future.

Speaker Mike Johnson fails his first test.

Today's Edition Newsletter • 8333 implied HN points • 31 Oct 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Legislation International relations Election Government Political Analysis
  1. House Republicans proposed cutting IRS funding for Israel aid, showing poor leadership skills.
  2. Democrats and Senate likely to oppose the bill, challenging Speaker Mike Johnson's legislative efforts.
  3. Demanding IRS cuts for aid packages is seen as insulting and Republicans are criticized for playing political games.

The rise of political remoras

The Garden of Forking Paths • 2889 implied HN points • 13 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Partisan Politics Government Election Integrity Republican party
  1. The concept of political remoras describes individuals who feed off larger, more powerful figures in politics.
  2. Elise Stefanik's political journey symbolizes the descent of the Republican Party into an anti-democratic stance.
  3. Stefanik's evolution from a bipartisan moderate to a supporter of Trump's rhetoric highlights a concerning shift in modern American politics.

Corporate media is catching up: Trump is weak, economy is strong

The Signorile Report • 1395 implied HN points • 23 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election Media Economy Republican party Political Analysis
  1. Corporate media is acknowledging Trump's weakness and the strong economy in contrast to earlier narratives.
  2. Trump's representation as an incumbent, not a newcomer, is highlighted by media reports which could impact the 2024 election.
  3. Beltway reporters are recognizing positive feelings about the economy and how it could influence the election narrative.

The Republican Party is Doomed

Tracing Woodgrains • 2673 implied HN points • 01 Dec 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Political trends Conservative movement
  1. Republicans are losing capacity to run institutions beyond elections due to age and education polarization
  2. The political divide among young, educated professionals is shifting towards liberals and socialists rather than Republicans and Democrats
  3. Republicans lack talent in governance compared to Democrats, even in the conservative intellectual sphere

What’s in it for Haley to continue?

steveinskeep • 314 implied HN points • 24 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Analysis Media Coverage Campaign Strategy
  1. Haley may benefit from staying in the race, as challengers can gain attention and build support for future endeavors.
  2. It's crucial to accurately cover politicians, like Trump, by representing their words and tone fairly to provide proper context and understanding.
  3. Journalists should aim to portray politicians, such as Trump, accurately by showcasing their speaking style and overall themes in reporting.

If Labour is elected, the sky probably won’t fall in

The Path Not Taken • 132 implied HN points • 21 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Political Analysis Cultural impact Government Policy Public Opinion
  1. The upcoming UK Labour party's victory might not bring a radical cultural revolution, as some fear.
  2. Despite concerns about radical progressive ideas influencing Labour, they appear to be leading in the polls due to adopting more moderate positions.
  3. Government policies play a role in shaping culture, but long incumbencies can have negative effects on democracy and public services.

Handicapping the Trump-DeSantis Faceoff

Peter Navarro's Taking Back Trump's America • 2024 implied HN points • 24 May 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Candidates Policies Campaign Strategy Political Analysis
  1. DeSantis may try to claim Trump can't win by showing misleading polls in key battleground states.
  2. Trump might urge supporters to move to more MAGA-friendly media outlets like Newsmax and Real America's Voice.
  3. DeSantis may position himself as an anti-lockdown, anti-vaccine mandate candidate to try to split Trump's base.

The Michigan primary is the best evidence yet that Joe Biden is in trouble

Michael Tracey • 73 implied HN points • 29 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Analysis Primary elections Democratic Party Republican party
  1. The Michigan primary results suggest that Joe Biden's general election prospects may be unfavorable in 2024.
  2. Past primary performances of candidates like Obama have often hinted at trends in subsequent general election outcomes.
  3. Decreases in Democratic primary turnout and Biden's atrophying support in key states could indicate a challenging re-election path for Biden against Trump.

Donald Trump Will Lose in So Many Ways in 2024

Drezner’s World • 864 implied HN points • 01 Aug 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Analysis Polling Republican party General election
  1. The NYT/Siena poll shows that Donald Trump is leading the GOP race by a significant margin.
  2. There is a significant portion of Republican voters who do not support Trump and prefer other candidates.
  3. Despite his strong base, Trump may struggle to win against a conventional rival and appeal to moderate voters in 2024.

Whither Joe Biden?

Unreported Truths • 86 implied HN points • 09 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Political Commentary
  1. The concern that Joe Biden may not be fit to continue as President is growing, affecting him and the Democratic Party.
  2. If Biden were to step down, the Democratic Party faces challenges in finding a suitable replacement, leading to potential internal conflict.
  3. Biden's ability to lead for a second term is under scrutiny, requiring him to address concerns about his cognitive health and fitness to serve.

Bolsonaro é o responsável pelo atual estado de coisas no Brasil?

O Observador de Corcyra • 530 implied HN points • 20 Aug 23
🌍 World Politics Political Analysis Government Policies Economic Impacts
  1. There are mixed opinions on Bolsonaro's leadership in Brazil, with both achievements and mistakes highlighted.
  2. The current strong Brazilian economy is attributed to external conditions and reforms, but long-term prospects are uncertain due to potential negative effects of previous political strategies.
  3. Blaming Bolsonaro entirely for the current state of Brazil is compared to historical leaders being blamed for past events, emphasizing personal responsibility and the need for political change.

RFK Jr. probably won't hurt Biden. He might even help him.

Silver Bulletin • 238 implied HN points • 04 Oct 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Analysis Campaign Strategy Polling
  1. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s potential third-party run may not necessarily harm President Biden, and could even benefit him.
  2. Historically, third-party bids have had varied impacts and are not always spoilers in elections.
  3. Polls suggest that Trump supporters view Kennedy more favorably, and his issue positions may not align well with the college-educated Democratic base.

Dreams (or Nightmares) of Civil War

theconnector • 176 implied HN points • 18 Apr 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis
  1. The book 'The Undertow' by Jeff Sharlet explores post-January 6th America and its descent towards civil war.
  2. Jeff Sharlet delves deep into the current state of American politics, including the merging of evangelicalism with QAnon and the rise of a unique form of American fascism.
  3. The article highlights the challenges of online fundraising in politics and the investigation into potential fundraising scams by former president Donald Trump.

Wipeout

Comment is Freed • 90 implied HN points • 12 Jul 23
🌍 World Politics Political Analysis Campaign strategies
  1. Polls show Labour and Conservatives have had stable numbers, but shifts in momentum affect perceptions.
  2. Rishi Sunak's lack of progress against pledges and rising interest rates have impacted the public perception of the Conservative party.
  3. There is a possibility of a Tory wipeout, despite historical trends suggesting political fortunes tend to improve from midterm to elections.

Let the sunshine in

City Hall Watcher • 117 implied HN points • 27 Mar 23
📰 News Local news City Council Public Services Political Analysis
  1. The Ontario Sunshine List data can provide interesting insights on city salaries and job title trends.
  2. Firefighters saw significant salary increases over the past four years, reflecting a notable trend within the data analyzed.
  3. During the Toronto Council meeting preview, it was highlighted that the city faces a major financial crisis and discussed various agenda items, including the upcoming mayoral election.

Artificial intelligence and "big data" cannot replace public opinion polls | #213 - April 10, 2023

G. Elliott Morris's Newsletter • 117 implied HN points • 10 Apr 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling Public Opinion Data science Political Analysis Social Trends
  1. Artificial intelligence and big data cannot fully replace public opinion polls, as they rely on polls for calibration and may not be as reliable for all groups.
  2. Changes in polling methods, like switching from phone to online surveys, can impact results, highlighting the importance of consistency over time.
  3. Studies show genuine change in attitudes, like increasing racial liberalism, but also caution against biases affecting survey responses.

Time to Update My Stereotypes About Democrats and Republicans

I Might Be Wrong • 3 implied HN points • 07 Mar 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Parties Election Policies Candidates Political Analysis
  1. Parties like Democrats and Republicans are changing their stereotypical behaviors.
  2. Republicans chose Trump as their candidate despite indications another option might fare better, while Democrats contemplate replacing Biden for a stronger chance of success.
  3. Republicans seem to have become more populist, while Democrats are focusing on strategic choices.