The hottest Political Analysis Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top U.S. Politics Topics

A Note from Bari—and Our Big Thanksgiving Deal

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 1933 implied HN points • 27 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Media Journalism Public Opinion Political Analysis
  1. The Free Press has grown to over 935,000 subscribers, showing strong support and trust from the audience. This growth is almost double compared to last year.
  2. They have covered significant events like the presidential election, focusing on real issues and voices from everyday Americans, which has shaped their trusted reporting.
  3. The organization is expanding its presence through documentaries, podcasts, and live events, aiming to engage with the community and enhance its media offerings.

Harris’s Lost Week

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 2298 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Analysis Campaigning Public Opinion Media influence
  1. Kamala Harris's speeches and actions during a crucial week seemed overshadowed by Joe Biden's controversial remarks. This created confusion and drew attention away from her message.
  2. Donald Trump was actively campaigning and making headlines, which left Harris and the Democrats trying to play catch-up. Trump's visibility and campaigning style were noticeably more vigorous.
  3. There are signs that Democrats may be struggling with voter enthusiasm, especially among key voter groups. Despite some polls showing enthusiasm, early voting results suggest weaknesses in support.

The Most Accurate Pollster of 2020 Releases Their Prediction!

COVID Reason • 713 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling Elections Voter trends Political Analysis Demographics
  1. Atlas Intel was the most accurate pollster in the 2020 election, using a digital-first approach to track voter demographics effectively.
  2. In 2024, Trump is gaining more support among Hispanic and Black voters compared to 2020, showing a notable trend.
  3. Kamala Harris has solid support among Democrats but is struggling more with Independents compared to Biden in 2020.

7 Reasons Democrats Should Be Optimistic About Their Chances in 2026 and 2028

Noahpinion • 22765 implied HN points • 15 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political parties Public Opinion Campaign strategies Political Analysis
  1. Lower voter turnout could actually help Democrats win in future elections, as they tend to do better when fewer voters show up.
  2. Republicans face a challenge in finding a strong leader to replace Trump, which may hurt their ability to energize voters in upcoming elections.
  3. Historically, when one party is in power, the public often shifts against them, suggesting Democrats might benefit in the next elections.

THE SHOW NOTES: Biden's October Surprise

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 1199 implied HN points • 30 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Government Public Opinion Political Analysis Legislation
  1. Biden made controversial comments calling Trump supporters 'garbage' just before the election, which drew backlash from various political figures.
  2. The White House quickly tried to clarify Biden's remarks, but many were unconvinced and criticized him for the language used.
  3. Kamala Harris also faced scrutiny for her performance in a TV interview, highlighting challenges within the Democratic campaign leading up to the election.
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Announcing My New Column in The Washington Post

Thinking in Bets • 138 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voter Behavior Political Analysis Opinion Data interpretation
  1. Annie Duke is starting a new opinion column in The Washington Post, focusing on risk and decision-making. She'll share insights on how we interpret important data.
  2. The column will discuss the misleading nature of data interpretation, particularly regarding Black voters' support in elections. Duke argues that misinterpretations can be more harmful than misinformation.
  3. Annie's background as a decision scientist and former poker player helps her analyze how people make choices, which she'll explore in her writing.

Giant Electoral Asteroid Strikes America's Intellectual Class, Which Fails to Notice

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 20001 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Analysis Public Opinion Media Critique Political Movements
  1. The American intellectual class seems out of touch with the reality of elections. They often seem surprised by the outcomes despite all the past events leading up to them.
  2. There has been a lot of strong messaging against certain political figures, but it hasn't changed public opinion much. This disconnect shows the ineffectiveness of their strategies.
  3. Many people feel that the way news and ideas are spread has created a bubble, leaving critical voices unheard. It's as if they are communicating from a place that doesn't reflect the views of everyday people.

Sam Harris Abuses Logic: What He Gets Wrong About a Trump Presidency, and Why DNC Fear-Mongering Needs to Stop

Popular Rationalism • 634 implied HN points • 29 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Campaign Strategy Media Critique Rhetoric
  1. Sam Harris's arguments about Trump rely on logical fallacies. These include blaming Trump for all political problems without considering current issues or the role of other politicians.
  2. Focusing too much on Trump's personality distracts from discussing important policies and outcomes. Some people think that his administration did achieve things that were good for the country.
  3. Harris's fear-based narrative overlooks the strength of America's political system. Many believe that the U.S. can handle extreme leaders without losing democracy.

Here’s Where I Think the Race Stands

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 4056 implied HN points • 21 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Polls Public Opinion Political Analysis
  1. Trump appears to be enjoying the campaign more than Harris, which might give him an edge in the race. People respond to candidates who look relatable and fun.
  2. Polls show a growing support for Trump, suggesting he could win the Electoral College if the election were today. Democrats seem to be worried about their campaign's effectiveness.
  3. Voters are more concerned about their everyday economic struggles than the political drama surrounding Trump. Many feel the current administration isn't helping their financial situation.

Election Countdown: The Day After.

Breaking the News • 2347 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Voter Behavior Political Analysis Government
  1. Voters had several years to see Donald Trump's actions and behavior clearly, and they still chose him again. This shows a significant change in how the public views him compared to past elections.
  2. Kamala Harris ran a strong campaign with few mistakes, while Trump had a rocky one. Despite this, the election outcome favored Trump, which highlights a surprising shift in voter priorities.
  3. Two experts who believed Americans would make a rational choice were proven wrong. This suggests that the election results reflect a deeper understanding of current American values and beliefs.

No better room

benn.substack • 1815 implied HN points • 08 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Political Analysis Voter Behavior Political strategy
  1. The team had multiple backup plans ready for the election night, but they ended up not needing them at all because the outcome was clear very quickly. This shows how sometimes, despite all the preparation, things can turn out differently than expected.
  2. Even though they lost the election, the atmosphere in the room was charged with intensity and urgency as they worked together to process data. The experience was thrilling, highlighting the importance of being actively involved even when facing tough situations.
  3. The hardworking people behind the scenes may not get recognition for their efforts after a loss, but their commitment and dedication are valuable. They might be unnoticed now, but their hard work is still important for future efforts.

A Postmortem, of sorts

Unpopular Front • 24 implied HN points • 15 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Elections Democratic Party Political Commentary Current affairs
  1. The author discusses problems faced by the Democratic Party. They believe there are significant issues that need to be addressed for future success.
  2. The title of the piece was intended to be different but was changed, showing that writers often have little control over how their work is presented.
  3. The author's thoughts on the situation are ongoing and they plan to share more insights in the future.

FINAL Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast

Silver Bulletin • 9424 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Forecasting Political Analysis Campaigns
  1. In the final simulations for the election, Kamala Harris won slightly more than half of the time, but Donald Trump also had a strong chance, especially with potential ties in the Electoral College.
  2. The modeling approach adjusts for different polling methods and emphasizes reliable polls, aiming to offer a clearer picture of who might win the election.
  3. There’s still uncertainty in elections, and surprising outcomes can happen, so many factors could influence the final results.

After the Ball Is Over...

God's Spies by Thomas Neuburger • 80 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Analysis Governance Parties Public Policy
  1. If Kamala Harris wins, she may struggle to pass her agenda due to a divided Congress, leading to a challenging presidency.
  2. A Trump victory could intensify political conflict, but he may not be able to maintain dictatorial power without military and judicial support.
  3. The political landscape could shift significantly depending on who wins, with growing divisions and potential generational power shifts in future elections.

The TikTok electorate

Read Max • 7008 implied HN points • 07 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Social media Elections Political Communication Political Analysis
  1. TikTok influences the political views of young voters, particularly young men. It can spread both anxiety about issues like the economy and radical ideas from influencers.
  2. Social media, especially TikTok, can create a mindset where users see themselves as entrepreneurs or gamblers. This can lead to a desire for chaos and instability in politics.
  3. The impact of TikTok goes beyond just spreading messages; it shapes how users think and relate to the world. This can make traditional political solutions less effective.

Election Update 6: The Puckering

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 7102 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Analysis Campaigns Voter Behavior Party Dynamics
  1. Democrats are feeling anxious as key states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin show Trump leading. It's crucial for Harris to win all three to take the presidency.
  2. Many Democrats may have overlooked voter sentiments, which can lead to big consequences. There's a sense that the Democratic Party needs to reconnect with American voters.
  3. This election isn't just about who wins but also reflects broader public opinions on political messaging. The results could spark major changes in media and party leadership.

Are the Polls too Close to Be Trusted?

Richard Hanania's Newsletter • 1755 implied HN points • 27 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling Elections Voter Behavior Political Analysis Statistical Methods
  1. Polls can often show very similar results, especially in tight races. This might indicate that pollsters are playing it safe and not reporting outlier results.
  2. There is a concern called 'herding' where polling companies avoid reporting unusual findings to not seem wrong. This can lead to less information available to the public.
  3. The lack of variation in polls today is unusual and might mean real voter sentiment is being missed, setting the stage for a surprise outcome in elections.

Election Update 3: Self-Injury Watch On

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 5628 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Analysis Media Polling Political Commentary
  1. Watching political TV can feel overwhelming and stressful for many people. It often highlights negative news and can be quite draining.
  2. Election updates show a mix of moods, with both excitement and worry among different voter groups. The shifting results lead to a lot of anxiety and chatter on social media.
  3. Different states are reporting varied results, creating a sense of urgency and unpredictability during election nights. People are looking for any signs of good news amidst the tensions.

Election Night, Up All Night

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 5572 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigning Political Analysis Voting Political Commentary
  1. Expect a long and possibly dramatic election night. Many people hope for quick results, but it might take a while.
  2. Campaigns are actively working hard on election night, checking turnout and reaching out to voters. This shows how important every vote is.
  3. Different news reporters and channels have their own takes, making election night feel busy and high-energy, but it's important to stay calm and informed.

How Harris vanquished in the Fox News interview

The Signorile Report • 3037 implied HN points • 17 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Interviews Elections Political Analysis Media Public Figures
  1. Kamala Harris handled her interview with confidence and composure, showing that she could push back against tough questions without losing her cool. This made her come across as strong and presidential.
  2. Harris was able to expose the bias in the interview and challenge misleading comments made by the host. By doing this, she highlighted Trump's deceptive rhetoric about using the military against Americans.
  3. Despite the hostile environment, Harris's performance could inspire viewers who might question Fox News narratives. Her smart and controlled responses might even encourage some to seek out the truth beyond what they hear on that network.

Transcript - America This Week November , 2024: "The Insanity Era Dies. What's Next?"

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 1703 implied HN points • 16 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Media Elections Public Opinion Political Analysis Journalism
  1. Mainstream media is losing its audience and facing layoffs after an election loss. Many viewers are turning to conservative outlets instead.
  2. The current media environment seems to be failing as it struggles to predict election outcomes and meet audience expectations.
  3. There's a sense that the media's influence is diminishing, especially as they no longer have strong ties to the government or political figures.

America This Week, Friday, November 8th, 2024 Livestream: Election Week Postmortem, 10 am ET

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 3952 implied HN points • 08 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Analysis Political Commentary Media Current Events
  1. There will be a live discussion about the recent elections on November 8, 2024. It's a chance to go over what happened during the election week.
  2. The show is hosted by Walter Kirn and Matt Taibbi. Viewers can tune in to hear their insights and analysis.
  3. The livestream is open to everyone and will take place at 10 am ET. People are encouraged to join for this special event.

The Oracle Mouths Off, Part One

In the Writing Burrow • 5372 implied HN points • 09 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Analysis Political Commentary Future Predictions
  1. Be careful about what you want because your wishes can lead to unexpected results. Sometimes what seems good can actually create chaos.
  2. There are many possible futures, and history shows that power struggles often happen when leaders are weak or chaotic. This can lead to conflict and instability.
  3. In a political power struggle, allies and supporters can turn against one another. People must think ahead and be ready for changes in leadership and power dynamics.

Election Update 5: First Anomaly?

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 4483 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Political Analysis Party Politics Election Law
  1. There are unusual changes in the election results, particularly in Virginia, where Trump gained a lead unexpectedly. It's important to carefully watch how these numbers develop.
  2. Minor party candidates like Jill Stein and Chase Oliver are getting a small percentage of votes, and they might be blamed if things don't go well for the main candidates.
  3. Early reactions and notable changes in vote counts are a common part of elections, and they can lead to a lot of online discussions and confusion.

Hopium comes at a high price

Silver Bulletin • 1041 implied HN points • 19 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Political Analysis
  1. Polls showed mixed results, but overall, they were generally accurate in predicting the election outcome. This means people shouldn't overreact to polling numbers, no matter how close the elections get.
  2. Many Democrats believed in a winning narrative that didn't match the polling data. This led to a false sense of security about their candidates' chances.
  3. Voter concerns about issues like inflation, immigration, and candidate age were often ignored by Democratic leaders, which contributed to their electoral struggles. Listening to these concerns is important for future success.

The Face At The Front Desk Changes, The Corporation Remains The Same

Caitlin’s Newsletter • 1639 implied HN points • 15 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Foreign Policy Political parties Government Policies Political Commentary
  1. Political parties in the U.S. may seem different, but they often serve the same goals. It's like using both your left and right hand in boxing to win the fight.
  2. Support for politicians often overlooks their consistent harmful actions, regardless of party affiliation. Many voters mistakenly believe one side will drastically change things for the better.
  3. The actions of powerful leaders are often driven by profit and power, rather than thoughtful decision-making. This leads to irrational policies that hurt people and the environment.

Trump's vibes-driven victory narrative crashes and burns

The Signorile Report • 2398 implied HN points • 15 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Polling Media Political Analysis
  1. Recent polls show that Trump is not leading as he claimed, with Harris actually holding a slight lead in important voter groups. This means his narrative of an easy victory is not supported by the data.
  2. Trump's recent public appearances and behavior have raised concerns about his fitness for office. Harris is effectively highlighting these issues, contrasting her own active campaigning with Trump's evasiveness.
  3. Harris is showing strong leadership by engaging with multiple media outlets and audiences. This approach seems to resonate more with voters, while Trump's awkward town hall meetings are backfiring.

My Highly Decoupled Election

Richard Hanania's Newsletter • 2755 implied HN points • 18 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Party Dynamics
  1. In politics, some people see their side as both morally and intellectually superior, while others recognize flaws in their own group. Those who can see both sides more realistically might have an edge in understanding what's really happening.
  2. Political ads can sometimes focus on negative stereotypes rather than real issues, showing how some campaigns manipulate fears to gain support. This reflects a deeper issue within the political messaging from both major parties.
  3. The outcome of the election may not bring significant change, as either group represents a mix of flawed people and policies. Regardless of who wins, there's an opportunity to hope that either negative behavior or bad policies won't prevail.

The Incoming Trump Administration Is Already Filling Up With War Sluts

Caitlin’s Newsletter • 2044 implied HN points • 12 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Government Foreign Policy Political Analysis Public Opinion Political News
  1. Donald Trump's new national security advisor is Mike Waltz, who has a history of supporting aggressive military action. This indicates a continuation of a hawkish approach in foreign policy.
  2. Elise Stefanik, known for her pro-Israel stance and restriction of free speech, is set to be the U.S. ambassador to the UN. This reflects a likely alignment with previous commitment to military and political agendas.
  3. Marco Rubio is expected to be the next secretary of state, further indicating that Trump's administration may not prioritize reducing military conflicts despite supporters' hopes for a more peaceful approach.

ATW Live : Election Recap at 12 pm ET/ 11 am CT today

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 3023 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Government Policy Political Analysis Media
  1. The recent elections had a very close race, which kept everyone on the edge of their seats until the results were officially announced.
  2. Today at noon ET, there will be a live recap discussing the outcome and what it means for the future.
  3. You can join the conversation and watch the recap on platforms like Rumble or YouTube.

Kamala Harris was a replacement-level candidate

Silver Bulletin • 1365 implied HN points • 15 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Candidates Political strategy Campaigning Political Analysis
  1. Kamala Harris was seen as an average candidate, which was not enough in a tough election year for Democrats. Instead of standing out, she blended in with the party, making it hard for voters to be excited about her.
  2. Many believe that Biden's performance as president hurt Harris's campaign, as he focused on tough issues and overshadowed her messaging. This made it difficult for her to establish her own identity separate from him.
  3. Harris struggled with her political stance, trying to appeal to both the left and the center. This confused voters and may have cost her support compared to other Democratic candidates who were clearer about their positions.

Why Trump Is Ukraine’s Best Hope for Peace

Nonzero Newsletter • 417 implied HN points • 26 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Foreign Policy Political Analysis Conflict resolution Public Opinion
  1. Trump might be able to end the Ukraine war based on his strong will to resolve conflicts. He sees this as a chance to improve his reputation and political legacy.
  2. Some people worry Trump could worsen the situation in Ukraine due to his past actions and cabinet choices. They think cutting off support might make Putin less likely to end the war.
  3. Even though Trump hasn't shared a clear plan for peace, he believes discussions behind closed doors are better for finding a solution. There are signs that both Ukraine and Russia might be open to his ideas.

The Trump Bubble

Not Boring by Packy McCormick • 211 implied HN points • 13 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Government Policies Public Opinion Political Analysis
  1. There's a belief that we are in a 'Trump Bubble,' where excitement about new ideas and change can lead to real progress. This excitement can attract investment and resources into innovative projects.
  2. Bubbles can actually be good for innovation. When people think the future will be different and better, it encourages risk-taking and investment in new technologies.
  3. The current political environment is making people feel they can influence government policies. This sense of involvement can lead to better collaboration between the government and innovators.

Putting on Ayers!

Vicky Ward Investigates • 119 implied HN points • 28 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Media Coverage Political Figures Public Opinion
  1. Nick Ayers, who used to work for Mike Pence, criticized Pence and General Kelly on television. This shows some tension in their relationships.
  2. The interview with Ayers was aired on Fox News, highlighting his perspective on current political dynamics.
  3. Ayers' comments might surprise many, as they come from someone who was close to Pence during his time in office. It raises questions about loyalty and political alliances.

Is there life after CNN? Chris Cillizza hopes so

Simon Owens's Media Newsletter • 623 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Media Impact Journalism Social media
  1. Getting fired can be really tough and emotional, and people can be unkind about it online. It’s normal to feel a mix of shame and anxiety after losing a job.
  2. After leaving CNN, Chris Cillizza started his own Substack newsletter and YouTube channel. He is trying to build a new career as an independent content creator and finds some success there.
  3. He misses the camaraderie of working in a newsroom but is learning that his new path can also provide fulfillment and revenue on his own terms.

Today's Reads: Election Tensions!

COVID Reason • 376 implied HN points • 23 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political strategy Party Dynamics Political Analysis
  1. Kamala Harris is under pressure as she tries to connect with voters, but her efforts may not be making a big impact. It's important for her to change her focus to what people really need.
  2. Donald Trump remains a strong figure in politics, gaining attention despite the challenges he faces. This shows how both parties have shaped the current political climate.
  3. Democrats are worried about losing support from Black voters and need to find ways to regain that trust. Knowing what matters to this group could change the election's outcome.

Jack Smith seeks to dismiss the cases against Trump

The Reactionary • 86 implied HN points • 25 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Legal system Political Analysis Government Constitutional Law
  1. Jack Smith wants to dismiss the criminal cases against Trump, saying that a sitting president can't be prosecuted. This means Trump might not face these charges anymore.
  2. The Supreme Court decided that Trump is immune from being prosecuted for some actions he took as president. This ruling was a big win for Trump.
  3. If the cases are dismissed without being able to be filed again, there could be questions about the Statute of Limitations and future prosecutions. Trump may want to pardon himself to avoid any future legal troubles.

Fight Song

Magic + Loss • 636 implied HN points • 19 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Activism Political Analysis Civics
  1. Being active in democracy means accepting conflict and standing up to your opponents. It’s important to be ready to fight for what you believe in.
  2. Donald Trump uses intimidation to get support, and he has made it clear he won't accept losing another election. This creates fear and uncertainty among his opponents.
  3. Past experiences show that when Trump doesn't get his way, it can lead to chaos. It's crucial to stand firm against his tactics to protect democratic values.

What does Jeff Bezos' non-endorsement mean?

Read Max • 1949 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Media influence Public Opinion Endorsements Political Campaigns
  1. Jeff Bezos stopped the Washington Post from endorsing a presidential candidate. He believes endorsements can look biased and hurt the paper's reputation.
  2. Staff at the Post were unhappy about Bezos' interference, with some resigning and subscribers canceling. It shows tension between owners and journalists over editorial independence.
  3. TikTok stars like A.J. and Big Justice are popular, but their content can feel confusing or ironic to some. Many wonder if their fans genuinely enjoy them or if it's all a big joke.

Morning Reads: Biden, Harris, Trump, and More in the Political Mix

COVID Reason • 376 implied HN points • 22 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voter Behavior Campaign strategies Political Analysis Political Tactics
  1. Biden may actually be the best candidate we've had, as some articles suggest he knows how to handle the country's problems well.
  2. Kamala Harris needs to change her approach to reach non-college-educated white voters better, especially in key swing states.
  3. There are signs that some middle-class Black voters are shifting their support to the right, which could change the voting landscape.