The hottest Political Analysis Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top U.S. Politics Topics

Why Biden failed

Silver Bulletin • 342 implied HN points • 20 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Public Opinion Presidential History Policy Issues
  1. Biden faced huge challenges from the pandemic, his age, and a divided Democratic Party. These factors made it hard for him to keep his promises to the voters.
  2. His approach to tackling multiple crises at once hurt his effectiveness. Instead of focusing on solving one problem, he tried to handle everything, which didn't work out well.
  3. Despite being popular when he started, Biden's approval ratings dropped as various issues like inflation and crime grew. His age also became a concern for many voters.

Thoughts On The Ceasefire Deal

Caitlin’s Newsletter • 2244 implied HN points • 16 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Middle East Political Analysis International relations Elections Peace efforts
  1. Israel and Hamas have agreed to a ceasefire deal that takes effect soon, but there's been violence leading up to it. This makes the situation very dangerous for people in Gaza right now.
  2. Trump's team played a key role in this ceasefire, and some believe that his victory is actually better for Gaza than Biden's administration, which didn't act decisively to stop the violence.
  3. There's a glimmer of hope that the ongoing suffering in Gaza might finally be easing, but the overall fight for peace and justice is far from over. People are allowing themselves to feel hope, even if it's challenging.

Harris’s Lost Week

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 2298 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Analysis Campaigning Public Opinion Media influence
  1. Kamala Harris's speeches and actions during a crucial week seemed overshadowed by Joe Biden's controversial remarks. This created confusion and drew attention away from her message.
  2. Donald Trump was actively campaigning and making headlines, which left Harris and the Democrats trying to play catch-up. Trump's visibility and campaigning style were noticeably more vigorous.
  3. There are signs that Democrats may be struggling with voter enthusiasm, especially among key voter groups. Despite some polls showing enthusiasm, early voting results suggest weaknesses in support.

The Most Accurate Pollster of 2020 Releases Their Prediction!

COVID Reason • 713 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling Elections Voter trends Political Analysis Demographics
  1. Atlas Intel was the most accurate pollster in the 2020 election, using a digital-first approach to track voter demographics effectively.
  2. In 2024, Trump is gaining more support among Hispanic and Black voters compared to 2020, showing a notable trend.
  3. Kamala Harris has solid support among Democrats but is struggling more with Independents compared to Biden in 2020.
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THE SHOW NOTES: Biden's October Surprise

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 1199 implied HN points • 30 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Government Public Opinion Political Analysis Legislation
  1. Biden made controversial comments calling Trump supporters 'garbage' just before the election, which drew backlash from various political figures.
  2. The White House quickly tried to clarify Biden's remarks, but many were unconvinced and criticized him for the language used.
  3. Kamala Harris also faced scrutiny for her performance in a TV interview, highlighting challenges within the Democratic campaign leading up to the election.

Announcing My New Column in The Washington Post

Thinking in Bets • 138 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voter Behavior Political Analysis Opinion Data interpretation
  1. Annie Duke is starting a new opinion column in The Washington Post, focusing on risk and decision-making. She'll share insights on how we interpret important data.
  2. The column will discuss the misleading nature of data interpretation, particularly regarding Black voters' support in elections. Duke argues that misinterpretations can be more harmful than misinformation.
  3. Annie's background as a decision scientist and former poker player helps her analyze how people make choices, which she'll explore in her writing.

With January 6th and Trump, the Truth Has Always Been Bad Enough

Freddie deBoer • 5228 implied HN points • 07 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Current Events Media Critique
  1. The January 6th event can be seen as a big disturbance, but it wasn't an organized coup that succeeded in taking power. It was mainly a chaotic riot by people who didn't really know what they were doing.
  2. Claiming that Trump's actions represent a real dictatorship doesn't align with what actually happened, as he did eventually hand over power to Biden. He behaved more like a popular leader using fear to gain support.
  3. There is a tendency among some people to hype up threats posed by Trump rather than look at the situation clearly. This makes the discussion about his impact more emotional than factual.

Bari Weiss: The Comprehensive Failure of Justin Trudeau

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 4345 implied HN points • 07 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Leadership Government International relations Liberalism
  1. Justin Trudeau was seen as a hero for liberalism but many of his actions were against liberal values and didn't resonate with people.
  2. His resignation came after a series of internal issues in his government, which he blamed, but the root problems were his poor ideas.
  3. The challenges he faced were not just personal but stemmed from unpopular policies and decisions that did not reflect public sentiment.

How we'll know if Trump is going to sell America out to China

Noahpinion • 33118 implied HN points • 13 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Trade Relations National Security Political Analysis Elections
  1. Export controls on technology, especially semiconductors, are really important for keeping the U.S. ahead of China. If Trump stops these controls, it could mean he's not serious about standing up to Chinese power.
  2. There are doubts about Trump's commitment to manufacturing jobs, as his previous promises may not hold true. His tariffs might just be for show and could even hurt U.S. manufacturing instead of helping it.
  3. China is a serious threat to U.S. dominance, and the way Trump handles trade and technology policy will be key in determining the future relationship between the two countries.

Sam Harris Abuses Logic: What He Gets Wrong About a Trump Presidency, and Why DNC Fear-Mongering Needs to Stop

Popular Rationalism • 634 implied HN points • 29 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Campaign Strategy Media Critique Rhetoric
  1. Sam Harris's arguments about Trump rely on logical fallacies. These include blaming Trump for all political problems without considering current issues or the role of other politicians.
  2. Focusing too much on Trump's personality distracts from discussing important policies and outcomes. Some people think that his administration did achieve things that were good for the country.
  3. Harris's fear-based narrative overlooks the strength of America's political system. Many believe that the U.S. can handle extreme leaders without losing democracy.

Here’s Where I Think the Race Stands

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 4056 implied HN points • 21 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Polls Public Opinion Political Analysis
  1. Trump appears to be enjoying the campaign more than Harris, which might give him an edge in the race. People respond to candidates who look relatable and fun.
  2. Polls show a growing support for Trump, suggesting he could win the Electoral College if the election were today. Democrats seem to be worried about their campaign's effectiveness.
  3. Voters are more concerned about their everyday economic struggles than the political drama surrounding Trump. Many feel the current administration isn't helping their financial situation.

Despite Everything, Trump

eugyppius: a plague chronicle • 195 implied HN points • 20 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Candidates Political Analysis Government Public Opinion
  1. Trump's recent presidential win is seen as historic and significant, even amid serious legal troubles. Many believe his political presence will shape the future beyond just his own ambitions.
  2. Despite facing strong opposition from critics who labeled him as dangerous, Trump's power and influence have proven tough to overcome.
  3. The candidates that ran against him were considered weak by many, showing that Trump's political style is still very effective despite criticism.

Trudeau’s Not the Only One to Blame

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 1697 implied HN points • 07 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Leadership Public Opinion Election Commentary International relations
  1. Trudeau became Prime Minister in 2015, bringing hope for a new progressive era in Canada. Many Canadians had high expectations for his leadership from the start.
  2. Despite his popularity, there were concerns that his charisma overshadowed his political substance. Some people were skeptical about his ability to handle the country's economy effectively.
  3. Criticism of Trudeau was not common early on, as most people favored his youthful image and promises. However, skepticism about his policies and the potential shift toward socialism started to arise.

Keep Calm, Carry On ... And Wait

The Weekly Dish • 157 implied HN points • 31 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Analysis Public Opinion Political culture Media influence
  1. It's important to stay calm when dealing with political uncertainty. Panicking doesn't help, so taking a deep breath can be a good start.
  2. Waiting can sometimes be a strategic choice in politics. Instead of rushing to make decisions, giving things time might lead to better outcomes.
  3. Understanding the past can help us navigate current events. Reflecting on previous election cycles can give us insights into what might happen next.

How Harris vanquished in the Fox News interview

The Signorile Report • 3037 implied HN points • 17 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Interviews Elections Political Analysis Media Public Figures
  1. Kamala Harris handled her interview with confidence and composure, showing that she could push back against tough questions without losing her cool. This made her come across as strong and presidential.
  2. Harris was able to expose the bias in the interview and challenge misleading comments made by the host. By doing this, she highlighted Trump's deceptive rhetoric about using the military against Americans.
  3. Despite the hostile environment, Harris's performance could inspire viewers who might question Fox News narratives. Her smart and controlled responses might even encourage some to seek out the truth beyond what they hear on that network.

The Speech Joe Biden Is Likely to be Remembered For.

Breaking the News • 1731 implied HN points • 16 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Speeches Presidency Elections Political Analysis History
  1. Joe Biden's farewell speech took an unexpected turn, shifting from a typical review of his presidency to a serious warning about the growing concentration of power in America.
  2. He described a dangerous 'oligarchy' emerging from extreme wealth and power that threatens democracy and people's rights.
  3. Biden drew parallels between his concerns and Eisenhower's warnings about the military-industrial complex, emphasizing issues like misinformation and the decline of the free press.

The Oracle Mouths Off, Part One

In the Writing Burrow • 5372 implied HN points • 09 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Analysis Political Commentary Future Predictions
  1. Be careful about what you want because your wishes can lead to unexpected results. Sometimes what seems good can actually create chaos.
  2. There are many possible futures, and history shows that power struggles often happen when leaders are weak or chaotic. This can lead to conflict and instability.
  3. In a political power struggle, allies and supporters can turn against one another. People must think ahead and be ready for changes in leadership and power dynamics.

The "Wall Street Journal" Tells Us: Trump Takes Command of Inflation, Which Was Massively Unsatisfactory under Biden

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 1068 implied HN points • 24 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Government Elections Economic Policy Media
  1. Recent inflation rates are slightly above the targets set by the Federal Reserve, but not alarmingly high. This suggests that there isn't an urgent need for drastic policy changes right now.
  2. There is skepticism about Trump's understanding of monetary policy and how he believes oil prices affect overall inflation. Many experts think he is outdated in his thinking.
  3. Trump's comments on inflation and interest rates may not seriously influence economic policy due to his advisor's stance on maintaining the Federal Reserve's independence.

7 Reasons Democrats Should Be Optimistic About Their Chances in 2026 and 2028

Noahpinion • 23176 implied HN points • 15 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political parties Public Opinion Campaign strategies Political Analysis
  1. Lower voter turnout could actually help Democrats win in future elections, as they tend to do better when fewer voters show up.
  2. Republicans face a challenge in finding a strong leader to replace Trump, which may hurt their ability to energize voters in upcoming elections.
  3. Historically, when one party is in power, the public often shifts against them, suggesting Democrats might benefit in the next elections.

Trump's vibes-driven victory narrative crashes and burns

The Signorile Report • 2398 implied HN points • 15 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Polling Media Political Analysis
  1. Recent polls show that Trump is not leading as he claimed, with Harris actually holding a slight lead in important voter groups. This means his narrative of an easy victory is not supported by the data.
  2. Trump's recent public appearances and behavior have raised concerns about his fitness for office. Harris is effectively highlighting these issues, contrasting her own active campaigning with Trump's evasiveness.
  3. Harris is showing strong leadership by engaging with multiple media outlets and audiences. This approach seems to resonate more with voters, while Trump's awkward town hall meetings are backfiring.

What Type of Guy is the alleged UHC shooter?

Read Max • 7798 implied HN points • 10 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Social media Gun Violence Cultural Commentary
  1. The suspect, Luigi Mangione, had a surprising mix of influences, not fitting neatly into typical political categories. His online follows included a variety of personalities from pop science to self-improvement.
  2. His worldview combined elements of skepticism about politics, a belief in technology, and personal self-improvement. It suggests he was more focused on rational discussions than extreme ideologies.
  3. Despite this normal-seeming life, there were underlying issues that could lead to extreme actions. A mental break or personal struggles might have played a big role in his violent actions.

Giant Electoral Asteroid Strikes America's Intellectual Class, Which Fails to Notice

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 20001 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Analysis Public Opinion Media Critique Political Movements
  1. The American intellectual class seems out of touch with the reality of elections. They often seem surprised by the outcomes despite all the past events leading up to them.
  2. There has been a lot of strong messaging against certain political figures, but it hasn't changed public opinion much. This disconnect shows the ineffectiveness of their strategies.
  3. Many people feel that the way news and ideas are spread has created a bubble, leaving critical voices unheard. It's as if they are communicating from a place that doesn't reflect the views of everyday people.

Two Viral Essays From Longtime Elon Musk Friends Have Just—Yes, Really—Revealed Musk’s Origin Story As a Global Supervillain

Proof • 182 implied HN points • 29 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Public Figures Social Commentary Media influence Technology impact
  1. Two essays about Elon Musk reveal surprising details about his rise and influence. They suggest he has traits of a supervillain.
  2. These writings claim to outline significant moments in Musk's life that shaped his current persona. It's a perspective that paints him as a global threat.
  3. The essays have gone viral, attracting attention and debate about Musk's character and motivations. It's a compelling read for anyone curious about his impact.

Welcome to Vichy America

Unpopular Front • 293 implied HN points • 21 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Government Elections Public Opinion Political History
  1. The current state of America is compared to a Vichy regime, which is partly fascist and reflects a sense of defeat and exhaustion in democracy.
  2. This regime attracts a mix of different groups who may hide their true intentions while claiming to act in the nation's best interest.
  3. People might soon regret their support for leaders like Trump, realizing that their political choices have long-term consequences.

Putting on Ayers!

Vicky Ward Investigates • 119 implied HN points • 28 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Media Coverage Political Figures Public Opinion Election insights
  1. Nick Ayers, who used to work for Mike Pence, criticized Pence and General Kelly on television. This shows some tension in their relationships.
  2. The interview with Ayers was aired on Fox News, highlighting his perspective on current political dynamics.
  3. Ayers' comments might surprise many, as they come from someone who was close to Pence during his time in office. It raises questions about loyalty and political alliances.

Does Politics Turn on a Message? Or a Messenger?

Breaking the News • 1013 implied HN points • 11 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Presidency Elections Policy Political History Political Analysis
  1. Jimmy Carter once seemed fresh and vibrant to voters, but many today only see him as an elder statesman. It's a reminder of his early energy when he first became president.
  2. There are challenges for the Democrats in expanding their base and rethinking their policies. Ideas are already being discussed to help working-class people and strengthen the party.
  3. An important point is that mere policy might not be enough for the Democrats. They may need to consider a broader approach to connect with voters effectively.

Today's Reads: Election Tensions!

COVID Reason • 376 implied HN points • 23 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political strategy Party Dynamics Political Analysis
  1. Kamala Harris is under pressure as she tries to connect with voters, but her efforts may not be making a big impact. It's important for her to change her focus to what people really need.
  2. Donald Trump remains a strong figure in politics, gaining attention despite the challenges he faces. This shows how both parties have shaped the current political climate.
  3. Democrats are worried about losing support from Black voters and need to find ways to regain that trust. Knowing what matters to this group could change the election's outcome.

Fight Song

Magic + Loss • 636 implied HN points • 19 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Activism Political Analysis Civics
  1. Being active in democracy means accepting conflict and standing up to your opponents. It’s important to be ready to fight for what you believe in.
  2. Donald Trump uses intimidation to get support, and he has made it clear he won't accept losing another election. This creates fear and uncertainty among his opponents.
  3. Past experiences show that when Trump doesn't get his way, it can lead to chaos. It's crucial to stand firm against his tactics to protect democratic values.

Predictions and Prophecies for 2025

Contemplations on the Tree of Woe • 2601 implied HN points • 27 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Predictions Geopolitics Military conflict Political Analysis
  1. The petrodollar system is declining, which could change how countries trade oil. This could cause major shifts in global finance.
  2. There’s a lot of conflict happening around the world, and some believe we might already be in World War III, though experts mostly disagree.
  3. The upcoming presidency will be crucial for America. There are concerns about potential economic collapse and global conflict affecting the country.

Christmas in the Gulag. Trudeau in Trouble. How the Drone Theories Stack Up. Plus. . .

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 2346 implied HN points • 17 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Current Events Political Analysis International Affairs Government Public Policy
  1. There are many Americans wrongfully detained overseas. Some families are fighting to bring their loved ones home for the holidays.
  2. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is facing serious political trouble. His government could collapse after the resignation of his key ally.
  3. There are mysterious drone sightings in New Jersey, and no one knows for sure who's flying them. Some believe it could be foreign governments, while others think it could be our own.

Morning Reads: Biden, Harris, Trump, and More in the Political Mix

COVID Reason • 376 implied HN points • 22 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voter Behavior Campaign strategies Political Analysis Political Tactics
  1. Biden may actually be the best candidate we've had, as some articles suggest he knows how to handle the country's problems well.
  2. Kamala Harris needs to change her approach to reach non-college-educated white voters better, especially in key swing states.
  3. There are signs that some middle-class Black voters are shifting their support to the right, which could change the voting landscape.

WHAT WE DON'T KNOW ABOUT THE PRESIDENTS WE ELECT

Seymour Hersh • 73 implied HN points • 17 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Foreign Policy Presidency Political History Political Analysis
  1. Presidents can be surprising; it's hard to know if they will promote peace or conflict. Actions can differ from what they say during elections.
  2. Former presidents can influence current events, and new leaders may work together for peace despite their past differences.
  3. Historical examples show that popular figures may not always act in ways that align with their public personas. It's important to critically assess their actions.

Is The Harris Campaign Imploding?

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 1498 implied HN points • 08 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Candidates Polls Political Analysis
  1. Kamala Harris' support in key states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania is declining, which could hurt her campaign.
  2. Recent mistakes in interviews have raised doubts about her ability to lead and communicate clearly sobre important issues.
  3. Despite struggling, there is still a chance for Harris to succeed in the campaign if she can turn things around.

Weekend Report: What's going on?

The Signorile Report • 1099 implied HN points • 12 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Political parties Public Opinion Political Analysis
  1. Trump is struggling to raise small donations and is upset that Harris is outpacing him in fundraising. This has made him focus more on aggressive immigration policies.
  2. Kamala Harris shared her medical report showing she is in great health, which puts pressure on Trump to release his own health information.
  3. JD Vance has been inconsistent about acknowledging Biden's 2020 election win, raising questions about his honesty after saying both that Trump won and that Biden did.

He Could Not Even Wait Until The Inauguration

Phillips’s Newsletter • 99 implied HN points • 17 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Foreign Policy Political Analysis Public Opinion Leadership
  1. Trump's tough talk on China is seen as a facade, as he has shown favoritism towards President Xi and criticized Taiwan.
  2. He has publicly doubted Taiwan's value as an ally, arguing that they should pay for U.S. defense.
  3. Many people were misled by Trump's claims, as they did not want to believe his real stance towards China and Taiwan.

Democrats Still Aren’t Listening. Texan Sheriffs vs. Mexican Cartels. Plus. . .

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 1669 implied HN points • 19 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Analysis Policy Issues Legislation Government
  1. Many Democrats are struggling to understand why they lost support from working-class Americans. It's important for them to reconsider their focus on cultural issues that many voters see as distractions.
  2. In Texas, local sheriffs like Roy Boyd are actively fighting against drug cartels and human smuggling. Their creative approaches, like launching specific task forces, are showing real results.
  3. President-elect Trump is suing pollsters after they predicted a different outcome in Iowa. This may be part of a larger strategy to challenge media and regulatory norms around political speech.

FINAL Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast

Silver Bulletin • 9424 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Forecasting Political Analysis Campaigns
  1. In the final simulations for the election, Kamala Harris won slightly more than half of the time, but Donald Trump also had a strong chance, especially with potential ties in the Electoral College.
  2. The modeling approach adjusts for different polling methods and emphasizes reliable polls, aiming to offer a clearer picture of who might win the election.
  3. There’s still uncertainty in elections, and surprising outcomes can happen, so many factors could influence the final results.

Noah Smith on Trump 2.0 and Asia + Future of the New Tech Right

ChinaTalk • 326 implied HN points • 21 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Elections International relations Defense Strategy Political Analysis
  1. The tech right is becoming a powerful group within the Trump administration, focused on deregulation to improve the business environment in America.
  2. Nuclear weapons could greatly stabilize regions like East Asia, and countries like Japan and South Korea should consider developing their own for better security.
  3. Taiwan should leverage its tech industry to become a key supplier of defense products, like drones and batteries, to enhance its economic stability and defense against China.

Here's What I'm Reading Tonight on the Election

COVID Reason • 515 implied HN points • 17 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Analysis Campaign Strategy Media influence Voter Behavior
  1. Kamala Harris is facing tough questions about her leadership and actions, which could affect how voters see her as a potential leader. People are starting to doubt her ability to handle future challenges.
  2. There are mixed feelings among Democrats about the upcoming elections; some are feeling hopeful while others are anxious about their chances against Trump. It's a reminder that anything can happen in politics.
  3. The importance of chance in elections is highlighted, suggesting that the outcome might sometimes depend on luck rather than just strategies and campaigning. It's an interesting thought about how unpredictable politics can be.