The hottest Political Analysis Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top U.S. Politics Topics

Harris’s Lost Week

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 2298 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Analysis Campaigning Public Opinion Media influence
  1. Kamala Harris's speeches and actions during a crucial week seemed overshadowed by Joe Biden's controversial remarks. This created confusion and drew attention away from her message.
  2. Donald Trump was actively campaigning and making headlines, which left Harris and the Democrats trying to play catch-up. Trump's visibility and campaigning style were noticeably more vigorous.
  3. There are signs that Democrats may be struggling with voter enthusiasm, especially among key voter groups. Despite some polls showing enthusiasm, early voting results suggest weaknesses in support.

The Fight

The Ruffian • 116 implied HN points • 03 Mar 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Current Events Public Opinion Policy Debate Election Campaigns
  1. Moral outrage is sometimes necessary and ignoring it can feel wrong. It's not always smart to be overly sophisticated about serious issues.
  2. There are often simple truths that are hard to accept, but dismissing them as just tough love is misguided.
  3. It’s important to engage genuinely with significant events rather than adopt a cynical or indifferent approach. Authenticity matters in discussions about serious topics.

The Most Accurate Pollster of 2020 Releases Their Prediction!

COVID Reason • 713 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling Elections Voter trends Political Analysis Demographics
  1. Atlas Intel was the most accurate pollster in the 2020 election, using a digital-first approach to track voter demographics effectively.
  2. In 2024, Trump is gaining more support among Hispanic and Black voters compared to 2020, showing a notable trend.
  3. Kamala Harris has solid support among Democrats but is struggling more with Independents compared to Biden in 2020.

A Pause to Chuckle at the Democrats' Tortured Mamdani Wigout

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 8100 implied HN points • 27 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Analysis Democratic Party Campaign Strategy Public Opinion
  1. Zohran Mamdani's win in the New York mayoral primary shook up the Democratic Party. Many Democrats are struggling to accept this change.
  2. Some party members are stuck in denial and anger, feeling confused about a candidate with an immigrant background and a unique name.
  3. The reaction to Mamdani's victory shows how the party can misread political situations, similar to past mistakes with figures like Donald Trump.

THE SHOW NOTES: Biden's October Surprise

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 1199 implied HN points • 30 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Government Public Opinion Political Analysis Legislation
  1. Biden made controversial comments calling Trump supporters 'garbage' just before the election, which drew backlash from various political figures.
  2. The White House quickly tried to clarify Biden's remarks, but many were unconvinced and criticized him for the language used.
  3. Kamala Harris also faced scrutiny for her performance in a TV interview, highlighting challenges within the Democratic campaign leading up to the election.
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This Supreme Court Term Proves the System Still Works

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 1344 implied HN points • 02 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Supreme Court Legislation Judiciary Political Analysis Constitutional Law
  1. The Supreme Court had notable victories for conservatives this term, including key rulings supporting Trump's policies. This shows a strong conservative majority in the Court.
  2. Some people, especially progressives, are upset about the Court's decisions, claiming they create confusion and support unlawful actions.
  3. Overall, the term demonstrated that the Supreme Court remains active and influential, not easily swayed by political pressure.

Announcing My New Column in The Washington Post

Thinking in Bets • 138 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voter Behavior Political Analysis Opinion Data interpretation
  1. Annie Duke is starting a new opinion column in The Washington Post, focusing on risk and decision-making. She'll share insights on how we interpret important data.
  2. The column will discuss the misleading nature of data interpretation, particularly regarding Black voters' support in elections. Duke argues that misinterpretations can be more harmful than misinformation.
  3. Annie's background as a decision scientist and former poker player helps her analyze how people make choices, which she'll explore in her writing.

Sam Harris Abuses Logic: What He Gets Wrong About a Trump Presidency, and Why DNC Fear-Mongering Needs to Stop

Popular Rationalism • 634 implied HN points • 29 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Campaign Strategy Media Critique Rhetoric
  1. Sam Harris's arguments about Trump rely on logical fallacies. These include blaming Trump for all political problems without considering current issues or the role of other politicians.
  2. Focusing too much on Trump's personality distracts from discussing important policies and outcomes. Some people think that his administration did achieve things that were good for the country.
  3. Harris's fear-based narrative overlooks the strength of America's political system. Many believe that the U.S. can handle extreme leaders without losing democracy.

Here’s Where I Think the Race Stands

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 4056 implied HN points • 21 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Polls Public Opinion Political Analysis
  1. Trump appears to be enjoying the campaign more than Harris, which might give him an edge in the race. People respond to candidates who look relatable and fun.
  2. Polls show a growing support for Trump, suggesting he could win the Electoral College if the election were today. Democrats seem to be worried about their campaign's effectiveness.
  3. Voters are more concerned about their everyday economic struggles than the political drama surrounding Trump. Many feel the current administration isn't helping their financial situation.

Weekend Update #122: Trump Opens His Mouth and Putin Comes Out

Phillips’s Newsletter • 250 implied HN points • 02 Mar 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis International relations Media influence War reporting Public Perception
  1. Trump appears to fully support Putin's views, especially regarding Ukraine's military situation. This shows a concerning alignment with Russia's narrative.
  2. There is a belief that Ukraine is in worse shape than it actually is. Recent reports indicate that the Ukrainian military is holding strong despite Russian advances.
  3. European leaders need to recognize that Trump cannot be a reliable ally for Ukraine and should focus on supportive strategies independent of the U.S.

"You don’t have the cards right now" – "I'm not playing cards Mr President" – "Oh you're playing cards, you're gambling with the lives of millions of people"

eugyppius: a plague chronicle • 316 implied HN points • 01 Mar 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Relations Political Analysis International Affairs Leadership Conflict
  1. Zelensky has been traveling to talk to world leaders about UKraine, but some people find his approach irritating. He believes in unity and democracy, but others think he’s become too much of a celebrity.
  2. A recent press conference between Zelensky and Trump turned sour, showing a breakdown in US-Ukraine relations. It highlighted disagreements over the war in Ukraine and differing views on responsibility for the conflict.
  3. The press conference was meant to be private negotiations but turned into a public disagreement. Many believe Zelensky didn’t handle the meeting well, and it may have lasting effects on their relationship.

How Harris vanquished in the Fox News interview

The Signorile Report • 3037 implied HN points • 17 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Interviews Elections Political Analysis Media Public Figures
  1. Kamala Harris handled her interview with confidence and composure, showing that she could push back against tough questions without losing her cool. This made her come across as strong and presidential.
  2. Harris was able to expose the bias in the interview and challenge misleading comments made by the host. By doing this, she highlighted Trump's deceptive rhetoric about using the military against Americans.
  3. Despite the hostile environment, Harris's performance could inspire viewers who might question Fox News narratives. Her smart and controlled responses might even encourage some to seek out the truth beyond what they hear on that network.

The Oracle Mouths Off, Part One

In the Writing Burrow • 5372 implied HN points • 09 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Analysis Political Commentary Future Predictions
  1. Be careful about what you want because your wishes can lead to unexpected results. Sometimes what seems good can actually create chaos.
  2. There are many possible futures, and history shows that power struggles often happen when leaders are weak or chaotic. This can lead to conflict and instability.
  3. In a political power struggle, allies and supporters can turn against one another. People must think ahead and be ready for changes in leadership and power dynamics.

Trump's vibes-driven victory narrative crashes and burns

The Signorile Report • 2398 implied HN points • 15 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Polling Media Political Analysis
  1. Recent polls show that Trump is not leading as he claimed, with Harris actually holding a slight lead in important voter groups. This means his narrative of an easy victory is not supported by the data.
  2. Trump's recent public appearances and behavior have raised concerns about his fitness for office. Harris is effectively highlighting these issues, contrasting her own active campaigning with Trump's evasiveness.
  3. Harris is showing strong leadership by engaging with multiple media outlets and audiences. This approach seems to resonate more with voters, while Trump's awkward town hall meetings are backfiring.

Ceasefire or Not, Iran Looks for Ways to Reduce the Risk of a U.S. Reprisal. Plus. . .

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 853 implied HN points • 24 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Domestic Policy Elections Foreign Relations Political Analysis Legislation
  1. Trump announced a surprise ceasefire between Israel and Iran, but there was confusion about whether both countries agreed. It seems Iran is trying to avoid escalating tensions.
  2. Republicans are claiming success in Trump's approach to Iran, while Democrats have been criticized for not speaking clearly on the issue.
  3. In New York City, a Republican mayor seems unlikely to win unless during a crisis, and a socialist candidate is making significant strides in the mayoral race.

How Biden Helped Bring War to Ukraine

Nonzero Newsletter • 542 implied HN points • 24 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy International relations Military Affairs Elections Political Analysis
  1. The U.S. adopted a more aggressive stance toward Russia after Biden became president, which changed the situation in Ukraine. This shift is seen as a major factor that contributed to the outbreak of war.
  2. Ukrainian President Zelensky initially aimed to make peace with Russia but faced pressure from both local nationalists and U.S. officials who feared his approach would weaken Ukraine's position.
  3. Trump's presidency was associated with a different strategy towards Russia that allowed for some diplomatic conversations. Some argue that his policies might have prevented the large-scale conflict we see now.

Trump starts to break things

Noahpinion • 74295 implied HN points • 02 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Tariffs Trade Relations Political Analysis International relations
  1. Trump's new tariffs on Canada and Mexico could raise prices for American consumers. These tariffs might hurt people's wallets and lead to higher costs for everyday goods.
  2. The tariffs may disrupt American manufacturers' supply chains, making it harder for them to compete. This could lower the production efficiency of U.S. companies that rely on imports from these countries.
  3. There is uncertainty about the impact of these tariffs on trade relations. If Trump keeps them in place, it could harm relationships with allies and create economic instability.

Why is Europe Staying in an Abusive Relationship?

Phillips’s Newsletter • 174 implied HN points • 28 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Relations Political Analysis International relations Trump presidency European Politics
  1. Europe feels trapped in a bad relationship with Trump, similar to how people stay in abusive situations due to fear and intimidation.
  2. Many European leaders don't recognize the unhealthy dynamics at play, which causes them to excuse Trump's actions instead of addressing their own weaknesses.
  3. To truly protect themselves, Europe needs to acknowledge the reality of this relationship and start acting more independently and confidently.

Putting on Ayers!

Vicky Ward Investigates • 119 implied HN points • 28 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Media Coverage Political Figures Public Opinion Election insights
  1. Nick Ayers, who used to work for Mike Pence, criticized Pence and General Kelly on television. This shows some tension in their relationships.
  2. The interview with Ayers was aired on Fox News, highlighting his perspective on current political dynamics.
  3. Ayers' comments might surprise many, as they come from someone who was close to Pence during his time in office. It raises questions about loyalty and political alliances.

What You Don't Know

Points And Figures • 1172 implied HN points • 16 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Government Policy Political Analysis Corruption
  1. It's important to know your strengths and weaknesses. Being honest about what you don't know can help you make better decisions.
  2. A disciplined process is key in investing. By evaluating your approach rather than blaming others, you can learn from both your successes and failures.
  3. Technological advancements are shaping our future. If we embrace progress, it could lead to significant improvements in our quality of life.

Today's Reads: Election Tensions!

COVID Reason • 376 implied HN points • 23 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political strategy Party Dynamics Political Analysis
  1. Kamala Harris is under pressure as she tries to connect with voters, but her efforts may not be making a big impact. It's important for her to change her focus to what people really need.
  2. Donald Trump remains a strong figure in politics, gaining attention despite the challenges he faces. This shows how both parties have shaped the current political climate.
  3. Democrats are worried about losing support from Black voters and need to find ways to regain that trust. Knowing what matters to this group could change the election's outcome.

Fight Song

Magic + Loss • 636 implied HN points • 19 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Activism Political Analysis Civics
  1. Being active in democracy means accepting conflict and standing up to your opponents. It’s important to be ready to fight for what you believe in.
  2. Donald Trump uses intimidation to get support, and he has made it clear he won't accept losing another election. This creates fear and uncertainty among his opponents.
  3. Past experiences show that when Trump doesn't get his way, it can lead to chaos. It's crucial to stand firm against his tactics to protect democratic values.

Morning Reads: Biden, Harris, Trump, and More in the Political Mix

COVID Reason • 376 implied HN points • 22 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voter Behavior Campaign strategies Political Analysis Political Tactics
  1. Biden may actually be the best candidate we've had, as some articles suggest he knows how to handle the country's problems well.
  2. Kamala Harris needs to change her approach to reach non-college-educated white voters better, especially in key swing states.
  3. There are signs that some middle-class Black voters are shifting their support to the right, which could change the voting landscape.

Is The Harris Campaign Imploding?

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 1498 implied HN points • 08 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Candidates Polls Political Analysis
  1. Kamala Harris' support in key states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania is declining, which could hurt her campaign.
  2. Recent mistakes in interviews have raised doubts about her ability to lead and communicate clearly sobre important issues.
  3. Despite struggling, there is still a chance for Harris to succeed in the campaign if she can turn things around.

Weekend Report: What's going on?

The Signorile Report • 1099 implied HN points • 12 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Political parties Public Opinion Political Analysis
  1. Trump is struggling to raise small donations and is upset that Harris is outpacing him in fundraising. This has made him focus more on aggressive immigration policies.
  2. Kamala Harris shared her medical report showing she is in great health, which puts pressure on Trump to release his own health information.
  3. JD Vance has been inconsistent about acknowledging Biden's 2020 election win, raising questions about his honesty after saying both that Trump won and that Biden did.

MPS20 Comparison for the June 2025 LA Riots

Handwaving Freakoutery • 554 implied HN points • 10 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Media influence Public response Government Policy
  1. The MPS20 scale is a way to measure the impact of protests and riots mathematically. It helps to understand how severe or significant a civil unrest event really is.
  2. Political leaders often use the National Guard in inconsistent ways during riots. Their decisions are sometimes influenced more by public perception than by the actual situation.
  3. There is a growing belief that some riots may be staged for political or media attention. This makes people question if what they see is really happening or just part of a bigger performance.

Here's What I'm Reading Tonight on the Election

COVID Reason • 515 implied HN points • 17 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Analysis Campaign Strategy Media influence Voter Behavior
  1. Kamala Harris is facing tough questions about her leadership and actions, which could affect how voters see her as a potential leader. People are starting to doubt her ability to handle future challenges.
  2. There are mixed feelings among Democrats about the upcoming elections; some are feeling hopeful while others are anxious about their chances against Trump. It's a reminder that anything can happen in politics.
  3. The importance of chance in elections is highlighted, suggesting that the outcome might sometimes depend on luck rather than just strategies and campaigning. It's an interesting thought about how unpredictable politics can be.

News Roundup: Trump's Unpredictable Moves Shaking Up 2024

COVID Reason • 654 implied HN points • 14 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political strategy Political Analysis
  1. Trump is campaigning in strong Democratic states, which surprises many people. This strategy might help him reach new voters and change the typical campaign rules.
  2. Democrats are feeling anxious as the presidential election approaches. Their campaign seems scattered, showing signs of internal struggle that could impact their chances.
  3. Gender dynamics are shaping the 2024 election. Young women are focused on reproductive rights, while young men are concerned about traditional masculinity and dignity.

Who Is Burning Cars and Throwing Rocks in LA? Plus. . .

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 1015 implied HN points • 10 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Immigration Protests Political Analysis Public Trust
  1. Immigration has become a huge issue in today's society, affecting political views and actions. It's important to understand why it matters to so many people.
  2. Protests in places like LA can be very chaotic, and different sides have very different views on what's happening. Seeing things for yourself or trusting reliable sources is key.
  3. The media landscape is changing, and people often live in different realities based on what they believe. It's essential to look at the facts from multiple angles.

Dingus of the week: Democratic party spending $20 million on men

Men Yell at Me • 391 implied HN points • 30 May 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Campaign Strategy Voter Demographics Party Dynamics Public Policy
  1. The Democratic National Committee is planning to spend $20 million to win back young male voters, but many believe this may not address the root causes of their declining support.
  2. Research shows that male support for Democrats drops significantly when a female candidate is on the ballot, highlighting potential biases among male voters.
  3. Some suggestions for the Democratic platform include humorous ideas that appeal to men, like guaranteed matches on dating apps, but the real issue may be deeper societal attitudes rather than party policies.

Mid-day reading: Harris’s Campaign, Voter Trends, and 2024 Stakes

COVID Reason • 337 implied HN points • 18 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Voter trends Political Analysis Media Coverage
  1. Kamala Harris needs to create a strong, positive message if she wants to win against Trump. She should focus on being a visionary leader rather than just bringing up past issues.
  2. Harris is facing challenges connecting with important voter groups, especially Black men and Latino men. How she addresses these voters could really impact her campaign.
  3. The outcome of this election is crucial not just for Harris, but also for the Obama-Biden legacy. A loss could change the Democratic Party's future and influence.

LIVE NOW: Trump Bombs Iran

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 250 implied HN points • 22 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Military Action Political Analysis Election Impact
  1. Trump announced a successful attack on three key Iranian nuclear sites, marking a significant moment in his foreign policy. This could have major effects on international relations.
  2. There are concerns about how Iran might respond to this military action, which could escalate tensions in the Middle East.
  3. Experts will discuss the implications of this decision for both regional dynamics and U.S. domestic politics during a livestream event.

How we'll know if Trump is going to sell America out to China

Noahpinion • 33118 implied HN points • 13 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Trade Relations National Security Political Analysis Elections
  1. Export controls on technology, especially semiconductors, are really important for keeping the U.S. ahead of China. If Trump stops these controls, it could mean he's not serious about standing up to Chinese power.
  2. There are doubts about Trump's commitment to manufacturing jobs, as his previous promises may not hold true. His tariffs might just be for show and could even hurt U.S. manufacturing instead of helping it.
  3. China is a serious threat to U.S. dominance, and the way Trump handles trade and technology policy will be key in determining the future relationship between the two countries.

Umm... Trump might actually win this thing.

COVID Reason • 693 implied HN points • 09 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Campaigns Political strategies Political Analysis
  1. Polls often underestimate Donald Trump's support, which could mean he might win in 2024 if the trend continues.
  2. Pennsylvania is crucial for the election, and recent party registration changes there could tip the scales in Trump's favor.
  3. Recent polls show Trump and his opponent, Kamala Harris, are very close, much tighter than in past elections, suggesting a competitive race.

J.D. Vance was right that "there is no room for firewalls," and if the CDU are not careful, they may well prove his point with their own destruction

eugyppius: a plague chronicle • 243 implied HN points • 20 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political parties Public Policy Government Political Analysis
  1. The current German political system is facing a crisis due to the fear of the political class towards their own people. They are stuck in old ways and unable to change policies that aren't working.
  2. The CDU, a major political party, might find itself in a tough spot. If they don't collaborate with the far-right AfD party, they risk losing power to the left-wing parties who could form a strong coalition.
  3. There's a chance the CDU will have to make hard compromises to stay relevant. If they keep ignoring the AfD, they may end up with a government that doesn't reflect what many voters want.

LOTS OF NEW MATERIAL FOR YOUR VIEWING PLEASURE!

Michael Tracey • 47 implied HN points • 28 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Government Policy International relations Media Commentary Civic engagement
  1. There's a new deal in the works between the US and Ukraine that could give the US control over many Ukrainian resources. This means Ukraine might lose some of its freedom and sovereignty.
  2. A debate in the Oval Office between Zelensky and JD Vance caused a delay in finalizing the deal. This unexpected clash raised questions about the future of US support for Ukraine.
  3. Despite the discussions and controversies, Trump stated that the US will continue to provide arms to Ukraine, showing that military support is still a priority.

At least five interesting things: Chaos Blitz edition (#59)

Noahpinion • 15647 implied HN points • 13 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Elections Government Policy Political Commentary Public Opinion
  1. Trump's recent actions create a lot of chaos in government, making it hard for institutions like FEMA and scientific research to function properly. There's concern that this unpredictability could harm everyday services.
  2. Despite some claims to the contrary, U.S. economic data is generally reliable and shows that the economy is doing well, with improvements in wages and job opportunities for most Americans.
  3. China is becoming strong in technology by having multiple industries that support each other, which poses a challenge for U.S. companies because they don’t have the same kind of interconnected industrial ecosystem.

On the Political Economy of Mendacity in 21st Century America

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 330 implied HN points • 10 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Economic Policy Media Critique Immigration Policy Forecasting
  1. Economic analysis can sometimes feel like a performance rather than a serious discussion. People in media might act like they believe things that aren't true.
  2. Immigration can boost a country's economy, but some policies can slow down growth. If certain negative policies continue, economic growth could be very low.
  3. Even when people know the truth about economic issues, they still might not say it. This creates a situation where misleading information can seem credible.

Eric Adams Is in Deep Sh*t

Glenn Loury • 535 implied HN points • 10 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Governance Public Policy Political Analysis Race relations
  1. Eric Adams is facing serious legal trouble, being the first sitting New York City mayor to be charged with a federal crime. This makes his situation quite unprecedented.
  2. He's attempting to use race as a defense strategy, but many are skeptical that will be effective. There seems to be a general belief that this approach won't help his case.
  3. Adams's time in office is viewed as lacking by many New Yorkers. There's a feeling that he might only serve one term due to his performance.

How the electoral math flipped against Democrats

Silver Bulletin • 364 implied HN points • 17 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voter trends Demographics Political Analysis Party Dynamics
  1. Democrats have lost some support among key voter groups that used to back them strongly. This shift is impacting their chances in elections.
  2. The decline in strong support from Black and Latino voters is significant. They used to provide a much bigger boost in votes for Democrats in previous elections.
  3. The changing demographics of the electorate are not favoring Democrats as expected. Many voters are now more divided and less predictable than before.