The hottest Investments Substack posts right now

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Top Links 777 Standout productivity. China bottoms out. AIDS deaths & the "Californian Ideology"

Chartbook • 257 implied HN points • 22 Jun 25
💰 Finance Economics Investments Markets Policy Global Trade
  1. Standout productivity has been noted recently, showing impressive performance in various sectors.
  2. China's economy seems to have hit a low point, sparking discussions about its future trajectory.
  3. There are rising concerns over AIDS deaths, connected to the broader cultural ideas around the topic, often referred to as the 'Californian Ideology'.

​ GDP=C+G+I+NX

Points And Figures • 772 implied HN points • 04 Mar 25
💰 Finance Economics Investments Market Trends Government spending Inflation
  1. GDP is an important measure of how well an economy is doing. When GDP goes up, it usually means people are earning more and living better.
  2. Different economists have different views on government spending. Classical economists often see it as a negative thing for the economy, while Keynesians believe it can be beneficial.
  3. Current economic uncertainty affects business investment decisions, making it tough for the economy to grow. However, there are signs of recovery, like increased merger activity.

The vibes are bad

Alex's Personal Blog • 65 implied HN points • 04 Mar 25
💼 Business Finance Tech Market Trends Investments Economics
  1. Okta and Gitlab had great stock performances today, showing positive earnings and growth. It's nice to see some companies thriving in a tough market.
  2. The stock market is struggling, with major indices like the DJIA and S&P500 dropping significantly. This could raise concerns about an upcoming recession.
  3. Despite the bad vibes in the market, there are still bright spots like new music releases making waves. It's important to find joy even when things seem uncertain.

The SPAC is Back!

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 2604 implied HN points • 24 Jun 25
💰 Finance Investments Market Trends Regulations Private Equity Stock Market
  1. SPACs, or Special Purpose Acquisition Companies, allow investors to put money into a company without knowing what it is. This makes them riskier and less transparent than traditional investments.
  2. Goldman Sachs is returning to the SPAC market because stricter regulations are being relaxed, and there's a huge backlog of private equity deals to be made. They see this as a way to boost their earnings while providing funding for private companies.
  3. The past SPAC craze was filled with celebrity endorsements and light regulations, but many ended poorly. Investors should be cautious as the market returns, since the fundamental issues that caused past failures might still exist.

Infographics: Centrally Cleared U.S. Treasury Market Flows

Concoda • 178 implied HN points • 13 Jun 25
💰 Finance Market Trends Trading Investments Economy Monetary Policy
  1. The U.S. Treasury market uses a central counterparty to manage trades. This helps ensure that transactions are processed smoothly and securely.
  2. Understanding the flow of money in the U.S. Treasury market is important for seeing how the economy functions. It gives insights into larger financial trends.
  3. Infographics can help simplify complex information about the Treasury market, making it easier to understand for everyone. Visuals often make learning about finance more accessible.
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Illumina's Roche Reaction

ASeq Newsletter • 21 implied HN points • 01 Mar 25
💼 Business Health tech Market Trends Corporate strategy Investments Innovation
  1. Illumina is facing several challenges, including layoffs and changes in their offerings. They've introduced a new spatial instrument but are cutting employee stock grants.
  2. In their response to Roche, Illumina emphasized that Roche's technology is complex and might not be as efficient. They believe their products, like the MiSeq i100, are on par in performance.
  3. Overall, Illumina didn't provide clear answers to questions about their strategy, leaving some uncertainty about their future direction in the market.

Top Links 772 Private equity polarizes. South Africa's growth chances dim & the Holy Alliance as "steampunk Terminator".

Chartbook • 329 implied HN points • 17 Jun 25
💰 Finance Investments Markets Economics Corporate Private Equity
  1. Private equity is causing more division among investors. Some big firms are sticking to traditional methods, while others are trying out new strategies with insurance.
  2. South Africa's chance for economic growth is looking weaker. This raises concerns about the future for jobs and investments in the country.
  3. The topic of the 'Holy Alliance' compares it to a 'steampunk Terminator'. This likely reflects complex interactions between various powers in a rapidly changing world.

Goldman Sachs Thinks We Will Have A Decade-Long Bear Market — I Disagree With Them

The Pomp Letter • 839 implied HN points • 22 Oct 24
💰 Finance Investments Market Trends Economic Policy Debt Management Predictions
  1. Goldman Sachs predicts a long bear market for the next decade, but some believe we're actually in a bull market. Data suggests stocks could do well in the near future.
  2. The U.S. is facing a significant increase in national debt, which affects the economy. This surge in debt could lead to currency devaluation.
  3. Long-term, the impact of currency debasement will overshadow other economic factors, like stock valuations. It’s important to stay aware of these financial trends.

The Secret Sauce of Palantir

Dana Blankenhorn: Facing the Future • 138 implied HN points • 29 Oct 24
💼 Business Finance Investments Technology Startups Market Analysis
  1. Palantir focuses on personalized data analysis for each client, using committed engineers to solve specific problems. These Forward Deployed Engineers (FDEs) learn the client's business and adapt solutions to boost productivity.
  2. The combination of FDEs and Product Development teams creates a unique feedback loop, improving software based on real experiences. This teamwork helps build a strong customer relationship that keeps clients engaged with Palantir.
  3. Palantir's success isn't about traditional AI but rather understanding and addressing client needs first. This customer-first approach leads to recurring revenue and a reputation for effective solutions.

Stablecoin Wildcat-Bank Roulette: The Genius Act Gambles with America’s Money

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 292 implied HN points • 21 Jun 25
💰 Finance Banking Investments Cryptocurrency Regulation Economy
  1. Congress is considering allowing companies to create their own currencies through stablecoins, which could lead to financial chaos like what happened in the past.
  2. There are concerns that regulators may struggle to manage the many stablecoins that could flood the market, posing a risk to the economy.
  3. Instead of issuing more currencies, a better approach might be to adopt practices from the European Union to focus on reducing fees and helping consumers without overloading regulators.

Is Stripe expensive, or is Adyen cheap?

Alex's Personal Blog • 65 implied HN points • 28 Feb 25
💼 Business Startups Finance Economics Investments Sales
  1. Startups are growing faster than ever, hitting $5 million in annual revenue quicker than before. This shows that today's startups have better opportunities and strategies to scale up.
  2. Self-driving technology is making great progress, with companies like Waymo doubling their paid rides in less than a year. This suggests that self-driving cars are becoming more reliable and popular.
  3. Comparing Stripe and Adyen reveals that Stripe is investing heavily in future growth while Adyen focuses on efficiency and profits. This difference shows how each company has its own strategy to succeed in the market.

✨ Begun, the US vs. China AI race has

Faster, Please! • 1462 implied HN points • 27 Jan 25
🕹 Technology AI Innovation Investments Data science Market Trends
  1. The AI race between the US and China is heating up, with China's DeepSeek making significant advancements. This situation is causing a lot of nervousness in the stock market.
  2. DeepSeek's new AI model is impressive because it can learn effectively with less hardware investment than previously thought. This could change how companies and investors view AI development costs.
  3. Some experts believe DeepSeek's achievements may signal a big shift in the AI field, showing that the competitive landscape is more unpredictable than it seemed before.

Homebuilder Earnings

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 25 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Investments Economics Market Trends Real Estate
  1. Homebuilder earnings give insights into the health of the housing market. They can show how well builders are doing right now.
  2. Tracking these earnings can help predict future trends in home prices and availability. It’s important for buyers and investors to know what's happening in the market.
  3. Understanding homebuilder performance can help people make better decisions about buying or selling homes. It helps everyone stay informed.

Money Market Update

Concoda • 221 implied HN points • 02 Jun 25
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investments Economic Trends Financial Policy Banking
  1. The money market is moving from a period of cash abundance to more careful funding conditions. This could affect how money flows in the next few months.
  2. A big change is expected once the debt limit is resolved, which could lead to a surge in bills. This might reduce the reserves banks have available.
  3. Foreign investors may be less interested in U.S. Treasury securities because other local bonds offer better returns. This could impact future U.S. debt sales.

✨⏩ What DeepSeek means for faster AI-driven economic growth

Faster, Please! • 1005 implied HN points • 30 Jan 25
💼 Business Economics Technology Investments Productivity Global Trade
  1. DeepSeek's AI models show that effective technology doesn't always need expensive equipment, which could change how companies develop AI.
  2. Goldman Sachs believes AI could significantly boost productivity and global GDP, similar to tech booms seen in the past.
  3. The rise of cheaper AI models could lead to faster adoption of technology in businesses, which may help improve overall efficiency and economic growth.

Brad Setser Says Smart Things on Exorbitant Privilege Unearned & Earned

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 322 implied HN points • 09 Jun 25
💰 Finance Investments Economics Global Markets Monetary Policy Trade
  1. The dollar's power is not just a natural right; it relies on global faith in American institutions and returns. It's a constant balance that can shift quickly if trust is lost.
  2. Private investors have played a huge role in keeping investment flowing into the U.S., as they seek returns and perceived safety. This pattern has changed from reliance on central banks to a focus on individual investors.
  3. The stability of the dollar could be threatened by political issues within the U.S. If the legal and financial systems weaken, trust may fade and capital could flee quickly.

Top Links 754 Exxon's long plateau. Banana economics. Modal magic & the General of Physics.

Chartbook • 457 implied HN points • 30 May 25
💰 Finance Economics Energy Markets Investments Policy
  1. ExxonMobil is not rapidly expanding its fossil fuel production. This suggests a more stable or declining phase for the company rather than aggressive growth.
  2. The content focuses on varied topics like economics and physics, indicating a diverse range of interests and insights.
  3. The support of subscribers is essential for maintaining the platform, highlighting the importance of community in content creation.

Infographics: The Shadow Cash Market

Concoda • 313 implied HN points • 28 May 25
💰 Finance Investments Market Trends Economic Policy Financial Instruments Cash Flow
  1. The shadow cash market involves various types of private transactions that are not easily tracked or regulated. This means that a lot of money moves around without official oversight.
  2. Overall, the liquidity in this market can act like bonds, providing a kind of security and stability for those involved. It’s an alternative way to manage and access funds.
  3. Understanding this market is important as it has impacts on the economy. It helps people see how money flows in ways that aren’t always visible.

So... When Does The Economy Crash?

OK Doomer • 191 implied HN points • 17 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economy Market Trends Investments Economic Policy
  1. Many experts are predicting an economic crash, but no one knows exactly when it will happen. People are worried about the potential impact of technology and global events.
  2. A lot of individuals are tied to their investments, making it hard for them to react quickly to market changes. Most people can't just sell off their stocks easily because of employer-based retirement plans.
  3. There’s a mix of genuine concern and opportunism in the market around impending crashes, with some people genuinely preparing and others just trying to sell fear-based products.

✨ DeepSeek drama: The optimistic case for AI spending momentum

Faster, Please! • 822 implied HN points • 28 Jan 25
🕹 Technology AI Infrastructure Startups Investments Efficiency
  1. AI efficiency might actually lead to more overall spending, not less. As AI becomes cheaper and more effective, people might find new ways to use it, increasing demand.
  2. DeepSeek shows that powerful AI doesn't have to be built with expensive technology. They managed to create a strong AI model using cheaper chips and smart training methods.
  3. The AI market is still uncertain, and some experts want more information about how DeepSeek claims to cut costs. There’s a lot of interest in how this might change the tech industry.

How does a 63% premium sound?

Alex's Personal Blog • 65 implied HN points • 24 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investments Market Trends Mergers & Acquisitions Corporate Finance Economic Policy
  1. Prosus is buying Just Eat for $4.3 billion, which is a huge 63% more than what it was worth before the deal. This shows a big jump in value but raises some questions among investors.
  2. Just Eat's growth has slowed down recently, with a slight drop in global revenue. This makes some people think the deal might not be a good bargain for Prosus.
  3. The Christian Democratic Union in Germany has won a recent election and plans to lower taxes and cut regulations. They're also focusing on energy policies and digital innovation, which could reshape Germany's economy.

Roblox’s Hindenburg moment

SuperJoost Playlist • 238 implied HN points • 10 Oct 24
💼 Business Finance Investments Tech Companies Market Trends Regulatory issues
  1. A financial report claims Roblox might have been lying about its user numbers, saying they inflate how many people really play the game each day.
  2. The report also points out safety issues for kids, saying Roblox doesn't do enough to protect young users from inappropriate content and predators.
  3. Lastly, there's a concern that Roblox could struggle to grow due to reaching most of its potential markets, which might affect its future profits.

Did Elon Musk just Mu$k Sam Altman?

Marcus on AI • 5138 implied HN points • 11 Feb 25
🕹 Technology AI Business Investments Competition Corporate Governance
  1. Sam Altman is struggling to keep OpenAI's nonprofit structure, and it's causing financial issues for the company. Investors are not happy with how things are going.
  2. Elon Musk's recent $97 billion bid for OpenAI's nonprofit has complicated the situation. Altman rejected the bid, which makes it tougher for him to negotiate a better deal.
  3. Musk's bid has raised the 'cost' for OpenAI's nonprofit to separate from the for-profit section, adding pressure on Altman and his financial plans.

I'll Take the Crypto Industry Seriously When Its Biggest Advocates Stop Saying "What Did You Expect?"

Freddie deBoer • 8384 implied HN points • 07 Dec 24
🔮 Crypto Blockchain Investments Regulation Scams Media
  1. The crypto industry has a problem with accepting responsibility for scams and fraud. Many people in the community brush off losses with a 'what did you expect?' attitude, which doesn't help their credibility.
  2. A serious industry should focus on cleaning up its image and ensuring accountability. If crypto enthusiasts want people to take their industry seriously, they need to demand better practices.
  3. If the crypto culture continues to mock victims of scams, it risks pushing more people towards stricter regulations. This could hurt the industry in the long run.

Q4 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 57 implied HN points • 13 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investments Banking Mortgages Debt Economics
  1. Mortgage originations are showing different credit scores now compared to the bubble years from 2003 to 2006. This means people with lower credit scores are getting mortgages now.
  2. Delinquencies on mortgages are increasing, which means more people are having trouble making their payments on time.
  3. Foreclosures are still low, which is good news as it suggests that despite the rising delinquencies, people are not losing their homes at a high rate.

All Fear The Cloud and Twitter Financials

Alex's Personal Blog • 131 implied HN points • 06 Feb 25
💼 Business Finance Tech Marketing Startups Economics Investments
  1. Twitter's financial health has changed a lot since Musk bought it. Today, it makes less money but is more profitable than before.
  2. There are mixed opinions about the future of AI startups and cloud services. Some believe they'll thrive, while others think they'll face tough competition and slim profits.
  3. Some companies, like Deel and Glean, are doing well in the AI space. They've shown strong growth and profitability, even in a tough market.

Lula Hoops

Doomberg • 5190 implied HN points • 29 Oct 24
💰 Finance Currency Investments Global Economy Central Banking
  1. Gold prices have been rising significantly and outperforming the S&P 500 lately, reaching all-time highs in many currencies.
  2. There's speculation that central banks are accumulating gold as they explore options for a new currency to compete with the US dollar, particularly involving a potential BRICS currency backed by gold.
  3. At the recent BRICS summit, there were concerns that Brazil's president might not fully support efforts to move away from the US dollar, which could impact the success of this new currency initiative.

Some early lessons of 2024 in the energy sector

Jérôme à Paris • 510 implied HN points • 24 Dec 24
🌞 Climate & Environment Energy Renewables Policy Investments Market Trends
  1. Solar energy is growing really fast, leading to more electricity than we often need, causing prices to drop sometimes.
  2. Energy storage is becoming super important to handle all the extra solar power, but keeping up with the growth is tricky.
  3. Despite talk of a big rise in energy demand, actual usage is mostly stable or even going down in many places, especially in Europe.

4 Truths About OpenAI’s Wild Financial Position

Big Technology • 5504 implied HN points • 18 Oct 24
💼 Business Finance Investments Corporations Economics Startups
  1. OpenAI plans to change how it looks at training costs, suggesting these might not be fixed over time. This could impact their profits, as training expenses are significant.
  2. OpenAI believes that ChatGPT will generate more revenue than its API, showing confidence in its widespread use. They expect more people will want to interact with AI in the future, which could be risky if the growth doesn’t happen as hoped.
  3. OpenAI is already making big payments to Microsoft, which is one reason they expect to lose a lot of money this year. If their losses continue at this rate, they will need to raise more money soon.

Coinbase Q2 2024 Earnings

DeFi Education • 519 implied HN points • 02 Aug 24
🔮 Crypto Blockchain Investments Market Trends Regulations Earnings Reports
  1. Coinbase has reported better than expected earnings and revenue for Q2 2024. This is a positive sign for the company's financial health.
  2. Despite the earnings beat, Coinbase's stock price has dropped about 2% since the last report. This trend seems to match the broader crypto market conditions.
  3. The expectation for Coinbase's long-term success remains strong due to its strong position in the US market. They are seen as having a unique advantage or 'quasi-monopoly'.

An epidemic of weirdly precise AI butt facts

Marcus on AI • 4703 implied HN points • 30 Oct 24
🕹 Technology AI Investments Future Trends Innovation Predictions
  1. Elon Musk and others often make bold claims about AI's future, but many of these predictions lack proper evidence and are overly optimistic.
  2. Investors are drawn to grand stories about AI that promise big returns, even when the details are vague and uncertain.
  3. The exact benefits of advanced AI, like machines being thousands of times smarter, are unclear, and it's important to question how that would actually be useful.

The End of Private Equity's Golden Age

European Straits • 12 implied HN points • 11 Jun 25
💰 Finance Private Equity Investments Market Trends Capital allocation Financial Systems
  1. Private equity is facing a big change as key investors, like Yale and Harvard, are selling off their holdings. This shift raises questions about whether private equity is just going through another cycle or if there are deeper issues at play.
  2. Today, private equity is struggling to exit investments, meaning firms can't show returns, which makes it hard to attract new money. This cycle of problems is creating a 'velocity crisis' that could hurt the industry overall.
  3. The problems in private equity suggest that the strategies that worked for decades might not be effective anymore. Firms may need to rethink their models or focus on fewer, stronger investments to survive.

Not in a Hurry

The Transcript • 79 implied HN points • 07 Oct 24
💰 Finance Economics Investments Banking Market Trends Interest Rates
  1. The Federal Reserve is not rushing to cut interest rates anytime soon. They want to see more economic data before making any decisions.
  2. Many experts believe that the market may be expecting interest rate cuts too soon and that any drops in rates won't happen as fast as people think.
  3. Overall, the economy shows signs of strength with stable hiring and positive corporate earnings, making it unclear if rate cuts are actually needed right now.

Homeownership isn't that risky

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 189 implied HN points • 16 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Investments Homeownership Economic Policy Market Trends
  1. Homeownership is often seen as risky, but this idea is misunderstood. Many homes don't actually lose value significantly over time, and the risks are often overstated.
  2. Lower-priced homes can be a good investment, especially for families with lower incomes. The rental income from these homes can outweigh the risks involved.
  3. The financial difficulties in the post-2008 housing market were largely driven by government policies, not the inherent risks of owning a home. For many, owning a home can still be a stable investment over time.

Earnings, capex, and models, oh my!

Alex's Personal Blog • 98 implied HN points • 30 Jan 25
💼 Business Earnings Investments Tech industry Market Trends Economic Impact
  1. Microsoft is doing well with cloud services and AI, showing growth and strong investments to meet demand.
  2. Meta is balancing costs well while investing in AI, which is helping them maintain profitability despite other losses.
  3. Tesla is focusing on long-term growth with self-driving technology and new robotics, which some investors find promising despite slow car sales.

Data-Driven Equity Splitting📊, The Path to PMF, Figma's $12.5 Bn Valuation🎨

The VC Corner • 379 implied HN points • 28 Jul 24
💼 Business Venture Capital Startups Fundraising Investments Equity
  1. Fundraising activity peaks between Labor Day and Christmas, so startups should prepare now to attract investors.
  2. Data-driven approaches can help startups split equity more fairly, making it easier to attract and keep talent.
  3. Figma's impressive $12.5 billion valuation shows the potential for growth in the tech industry, which should inspire other startups.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 13 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Investments Mortgage Rates Economic Trends
  1. House prices are on the rise, with the Case-Shiller National Index showing a year-over-year increase of about 3.8% in November. This trend seems to be continuing into December as well.
  2. The month-over-month changes show that house prices have increased 0.44%, which means house prices have been consistently going up for 22 consecutive months.
  3. Looking ahead, there’s speculation about what will happen with house prices in 2025, indicating that trends in housing are important for future planning.