The hottest Investments Substack posts right now

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Goldman Sachs Thinks We Will Have A Decade-Long Bear Market — I Disagree With Them

The Pomp Letter • 839 implied HN points • 22 Oct 24
💰 Finance Investments
  1. Goldman Sachs predicts a long bear market for the next decade, but some believe we're actually in a bull market. Data suggests stocks could do well in the near future.
  2. The U.S. is facing a significant increase in national debt, which affects the economy. This surge in debt could lead to currency devaluation.
  3. Long-term, the impact of currency debasement will overshadow other economic factors, like stock valuations. It’s important to stay aware of these financial trends.

The Secret Sauce of Palantir

Dana Blankenhorn: Facing the Future • 138 implied HN points • 29 Oct 24
💼 Business Investments
  1. Palantir focuses on personalized data analysis for each client, using committed engineers to solve specific problems. These Forward Deployed Engineers (FDEs) learn the client's business and adapt solutions to boost productivity.
  2. The combination of FDEs and Product Development teams creates a unique feedback loop, improving software based on real experiences. This teamwork helps build a strong customer relationship that keeps clients engaged with Palantir.
  3. Palantir's success isn't about traditional AI but rather understanding and addressing client needs first. This customer-first approach leads to recurring revenue and a reputation for effective solutions.

Will data centers crash the economy?

Noahpinion • 48706 implied HN points • 03 Aug 25
💰 Finance Investments
  1. The boom in AI data centers is raising concerns about whether it will lead to a financial crisis. Companies are spending a lot on infrastructure to support this growth, but there's a worry about whether the revenue will keep up.
  2. Most of the funding for data centers is coming through loans, particularly from private credit funds, which could be risky if these companies can't make enough money. This creates a potential problem for banks and insurers that are lending money.
  3. Historically, big spending sprees in tech have ended badly when demand doesn't match expectations, risking a crash. It's important to monitor this situation early to prevent severe economic fallout.

Cup Runneth Over

Doomberg • 7407 implied HN points • 23 Nov 25
💼 Business Investments
  1. ExxonMobil has made a significant discovery using petroleum coke as a proppant, which can boost oil production in shale wells by up to 20%. This technology is expected to play a big role in their growing production numbers.
  2. Despite concerns about oil production peaking, companies like ExxonMobil and Chevron are demonstrating increased efficiency and technology advancements that could mean more oil recovery rather than a decline.
  3. Many people believe we are running out of oil, but a more optimistic view is that technology will help find and create more energy resources, leading to lower long-term prices for oil and gas.

The Transcript Editor's Commentary

The Transcript • 79 implied HN points • 24 Oct 24
💰 Finance Investments
  1. Bank CEOs are feeling more positive about the economy and its future. They see signs that things are getting better.
  2. Earnings calls from major financial institutions show strong improvement in the markets.
  3. Some industry leaders are excited about the current stage of the economic cycle, calling it the most enjoyable phase.
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Who will actually profit from the AI boom?

Noahpinion • 22353 implied HN points • 10 Aug 25
💼 Business Investments
  1. AI investment is growing really fast, and it's now helping the economy more than people's spending. This means businesses are spending a lot on AI.
  2. There's a big question about who will actually make money from all this AI spending. It could be the companies that create AI, the tech giants providing the resources, or even the hardware makers.
  3. Even though there's a lot of talk about rich people getting richer from AI, the markets don't seem to believe that will happen in a huge way. Competition in the AI field might keep profits from growing too much.

Roblox’s Hindenburg moment

SuperJoost Playlist • 238 implied HN points • 10 Oct 24
💼 Business Investments
  1. A financial report claims Roblox might have been lying about its user numbers, saying they inflate how many people really play the game each day.
  2. The report also points out safety issues for kids, saying Roblox doesn't do enough to protect young users from inappropriate content and predators.
  3. Lastly, there's a concern that Roblox could struggle to grow due to reaching most of its potential markets, which might affect its future profits.

Record Labels Are Running on Empty

The Honest Broker • 17919 implied HN points • 02 Jul 25
🎶 Music Investments
  1. Record labels are focusing more on old music instead of investing in new artists. This trend shows a lack of faith in the future of music.
  2. Big record companies are becoming more like businesses that manage copyrights instead of nurturing new talent. This shift could hurt the music industry long-term.
  3. If the music industry doesn't support new artists, fans might seek music elsewhere. There needs to be a push to create new music for the health of the culture.

Book Review: The Land Trap by Mike Bird

Progress and Poverty • 3386 implied HN points • 13 Nov 25
💼 Business Investments
  1. Land has always been valuable for its role in production, its limited supply, and its strategic location. This makes land a crucial asset for economies throughout history.
  2. The financialization of land allows it to be treated as a commodity, which can lead to economic advantages in the short term but poses risks of creating bubbles that harm long-term economic stability.
  3. China's approach to land and real estate, like following Hong Kong's model, has led to significant financial issues, showing the dangers of poor land policies and the importance of learning from successful models like Singapore.

⚛️ Why small reactors may be more than nuclear wishcasting

Faster, Please! • 913 implied HN points • 12 Jan 26
💼 Business Investments
  1. Big companies signing deals for small reactors show the industry may finally get real customers and reliable capital it has long lacked.
  2. Still, past nuclear "renaissances" have faded, so optimism should be cautious and the burden is on proponents to prove the case.
  3. If corporate demand and steady financing actually translate into built and operated plants, small reactors could move beyond wishful thinking to practical impact on power supply and decarbonization.

Top Links 983 Yo-yoing defense stocks. ICE in decline. Tar wars, monsters and boogeymen.

Chartbook • 629 implied HN points • 15 Jan 26
💰 Finance Investments
  1. Defense stocks are described as yo-yoing, signaling high volatility and frequent swings in that sector.
  2. ICE is said to be in decline, and the piece also highlights tariff wars along with themes called monsters and boogeymen.
  3. The post is a curated newsletter of links and images that credits artwork, and it offers a free post plus a paid subscription option.

AI #141: Give Us The Money

Don't Worry About the Vase • 2060 implied HN points • 06 Nov 25
🕹 Technology Investments
  1. OpenAI is not only focused on advancing AI technology but is also pushing for government backing to support its financing. This raises concerns about privatizing profits while socializing losses, which many view as a form of regulatory capture.
  2. Both OpenAI and Anthropic are heavily investing in AI development, expecting significant losses in the coming years as they prioritize growth and market share. OpenAI plans to invest around $115 billion before becoming profitable, while Anthropic aims for a much smaller $6 billion loss.
  3. There are rising worries about the safety risks associated with advanced AI technologies. Many experts believe that the development of superintelligent AI could be a major threat to humanity, prompting discussions about how to responsibly manage these powerful systems.

Coinbase Q2 2024 Earnings

DeFi Education • 519 implied HN points • 02 Aug 24
🔮 Crypto Investments
  1. Coinbase has reported better than expected earnings and revenue for Q2 2024. This is a positive sign for the company's financial health.
  2. Despite the earnings beat, Coinbase's stock price has dropped about 2% since the last report. This trend seems to match the broader crypto market conditions.
  3. The expectation for Coinbase's long-term success remains strong due to its strong position in the US market. They are seen as having a unique advantage or 'quasi-monopoly'.

Not in a Hurry

The Transcript • 79 implied HN points • 07 Oct 24
💰 Finance Investments
  1. The Federal Reserve is not rushing to cut interest rates anytime soon. They want to see more economic data before making any decisions.
  2. Many experts believe that the market may be expecting interest rate cuts too soon and that any drops in rates won't happen as fast as people think.
  3. Overall, the economy shows signs of strength with stable hiring and positive corporate earnings, making it unclear if rate cuts are actually needed right now.

Private Equity Managers Are Primed to Pounce on Your 401(k)

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 3338 implied HN points • 13 Aug 25
💰 Finance Investments
  1. Trump's new order could let private equity managers use 401(k) funds more easily, giving them a chance to gain a lot of retail investor money.
  2. This may lead to retail investors getting poorer investment deals, as private equity managers might prioritize making money off fees over good returns.
  3. There are concerns that having retail investors could hurt the returns for big investors, as suddenly too much money might chase too few good deals.

Plumbing Notes: A Faulty Relief Valve

Concoda • 599 implied HN points • 09 Dec 25
💰 Finance Investments
  1. The Federal Reserve's changes to the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) will not significantly boost demand for U.S. Treasuries from banks. This is because the adjustments provide only minimal benefits for banks to increase their Treasury holdings.
  2. Banks are still mainly influenced by risk-weighted capital requirements, which could prevent them from buying more U.S. Treasuries. Even with a lowered SLR, banks might not feel compelled to increase their inventory of government debt.
  3. A stronger emphasis on growing deposits and other market factors are likely to drive bank demand for Treasuries more than the new regulatory changes. So, the real growth in Treasury buying might come from broader economic improvements rather than just regulatory easing.

Data-Driven Equity Splitting📊, The Path to PMF, Figma's $12.5 Bn Valuation🎨

The VC Corner • 379 implied HN points • 28 Jul 24
💼 Business Investments
  1. Fundraising activity peaks between Labor Day and Christmas, so startups should prepare now to attract investors.
  2. Data-driven approaches can help startups split equity more fairly, making it easier to attract and keep talent.
  3. Figma's impressive $12.5 billion valuation shows the potential for growth in the tech industry, which should inspire other startups.

Private Equity and Insurance? You Bet Your Life... and Maybe Your Pension!

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 2940 implied HN points • 28 Jul 25
💰 Finance Investments
  1. Private equity (PE) firms are increasingly buying into the life insurance and pension sectors, aiming to manage large pools of capital for investment. This can lead to potential financial instability for retirees relying on these funds.
  2. Pension Risk Transfers (PRTs) are a common practice where companies shift their pension responsibilities to insurance providers, which may impact the safety of pensioners' funds. This could leave retirees vulnerable if the providers fail.
  3. There is growing concern about how PE firms, focused on profits, may not prioritize the financial security of pensioners. Lawsuits are rising as retirees challenge the safety of their benefits after these transfers.

Top Links 966 Apollo going risk-off. What's up with Belgium. Southern geometries and François Ier's châteaux.

Chartbook • 400 implied HN points • 29 Dec 25
💰 Finance Investments
  1. Apollo Global, with roughly $908bn in assets, is moving to a risk-off stance by building liquidity at insurer Athene—buying tens of billions in U.S. Treasuries and trimming leveraged positions.
  2. Recent developments in Belgium are flagged as a noteworthy topic attracting attention.
  3. Cultural pieces highlight southern geometric art and the châteaux of François I, including imagery like Gunther Gerzso’s 'Southern Queen' (1963).

I'll Take the Crypto Industry Seriously When Its Biggest Advocates Stop Saying "What Did You Expect?"

Freddie deBoer • 8384 implied HN points • 07 Dec 24
🔮 Crypto Investments
  1. The crypto industry has a problem with accepting responsibility for scams and fraud. Many people in the community brush off losses with a 'what did you expect?' attitude, which doesn't help their credibility.
  2. A serious industry should focus on cleaning up its image and ensuring accountability. If crypto enthusiasts want people to take their industry seriously, they need to demand better practices.
  3. If the crypto culture continues to mock victims of scams, it risks pushing more people towards stricter regulations. This could hurt the industry in the long run.

Is this the end of SaaS?🤔, Venture debt investments swell in Europe💰, Navigating Corporate Venture Capital💡

The VC Corner • 439 implied HN points • 07 Jul 24
💼 Business Investments
  1. There are concerns about the future of Software as a Service (SaaS) and whether it might be declining. It's important to think about how technology changes can impact business models.
  2. Venture debt investments are increasing in Europe, showing that companies are looking for alternative ways to raise money. This means more options are available for businesses instead of just traditional equity financing.
  3. Understanding corporate venture capital is crucial for startups. It helps to know how big companies invest in smaller businesses to drive innovation and growth.

The SPAC is Back!

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 2604 implied HN points • 24 Jun 25
💰 Finance Investments
  1. SPACs, or Special Purpose Acquisition Companies, allow investors to put money into a company without knowing what it is. This makes them riskier and less transparent than traditional investments.
  2. Goldman Sachs is returning to the SPAC market because stricter regulations are being relaxed, and there's a huge backlog of private equity deals to be made. They see this as a way to boost their earnings while providing funding for private companies.
  3. The past SPAC craze was filled with celebrity endorsements and light regulations, but many ended poorly. Investors should be cautious as the market returns, since the fundamental issues that caused past failures might still exist.

Did Elon Musk just Mu$k Sam Altman?

Marcus on AI • 5138 implied HN points • 11 Feb 25
🕹 Technology Investments
  1. Sam Altman is struggling to keep OpenAI's nonprofit structure, and it's causing financial issues for the company. Investors are not happy with how things are going.
  2. Elon Musk's recent $97 billion bid for OpenAI's nonprofit has complicated the situation. Altman rejected the bid, which makes it tougher for him to negotiate a better deal.
  3. Musk's bid has raised the 'cost' for OpenAI's nonprofit to separate from the for-profit section, adding pressure on Altman and his financial plans.

Top Links 929 Trillion dollar buy-backs. Europe conservative R&D. Mountain-biking with Bush in Beijing. Night herons.

Chartbook • 529 implied HN points • 22 Nov 25
💰 Finance Investments
  1. Companies are doing huge stock buybacks, totaling $929 trillion. This suggests they may prefer boosting stock prices instead of investing in growth.
  2. In Europe, there's a focus on conservative research and development policies. This could limit innovation and competition in the region.
  3. The author shares a fun story about mountain biking with the former president in Beijing. It highlights unexpected connections and experiences in such encounters.

GenAI in two words: ”Success Theater”

Marcus on AI • 3912 implied HN points • 20 Feb 25
🕹 Technology Investments
  1. Generative AI is often seen as a show of success, but it's more like a performance with little actual outcome.
  2. Despite significant investments in AI, many projects are not achieving the results expected.
  3. There's an ongoing conversation about the true state of AI development and what is being overlooked in the hype.

4 Truths About OpenAI’s Wild Financial Position

Big Technology • 5504 implied HN points • 18 Oct 24
💼 Business Investments
  1. OpenAI plans to change how it looks at training costs, suggesting these might not be fixed over time. This could impact their profits, as training expenses are significant.
  2. OpenAI believes that ChatGPT will generate more revenue than its API, showing confidence in its widespread use. They expect more people will want to interact with AI in the future, which could be risky if the growth doesn’t happen as hoped.
  3. OpenAI is already making big payments to Microsoft, which is one reason they expect to lose a lot of money this year. If their losses continue at this rate, they will need to raise more money soon.

Lula Hoops

Doomberg • 5190 implied HN points • 29 Oct 24
💰 Finance Investments
  1. Gold prices have been rising significantly and outperforming the S&P 500 lately, reaching all-time highs in many currencies.
  2. There's speculation that central banks are accumulating gold as they explore options for a new currency to compete with the US dollar, particularly involving a potential BRICS currency backed by gold.
  3. At the recent BRICS summit, there were concerns that Brazil's president might not fully support efforts to move away from the US dollar, which could impact the success of this new currency initiative.

❄️ 📊 Suivre simplement ses investissements V2

Snowball • 1592 implied HN points • 16 Jan 24
💰 Finance Investments
  1. Following investments is important for understanding performance and tax reporting.
  2. Automated platforms like Finary and Delta help track various types of investments easily.
  3. Manual tracking tools like Google Sheets and Notion offer flexibility to customize tracking based on individual needs.

An epidemic of weirdly precise AI butt facts

Marcus on AI • 4703 implied HN points • 30 Oct 24
🕹 Technology Investments
  1. Elon Musk and others often make bold claims about AI's future, but many of these predictions lack proper evidence and are overly optimistic.
  2. Investors are drawn to grand stories about AI that promise big returns, even when the details are vague and uncertain.
  3. The exact benefits of advanced AI, like machines being thousands of times smarter, are unclear, and it's important to question how that would actually be useful.

State of Pre-Seed🌱, Gulf money is flooding into European startups🌏, Looking for AI use-cases🧐

The VC Corner • 579 implied HN points • 28 Apr 24
💼 Business Investments
  1. Gulf countries are investing a lot of money into startups in Europe right now. This means European startups have more funding opportunities to grow.
  2. There's a strong interest in finding use-cases for artificial intelligence. Companies are looking for new ways to apply AI technology effectively.
  3. The pre-seed funding stage is important for new businesses to get started. This is when they first seek money to develop their ideas and products.

Top Links 931 Calling for a purge. Is "collective leadership" making a come back? Publicity right. The "death bump" & Flecktarn.

Chartbook • 271 implied HN points • 24 Nov 25
💰 Finance Investments
  1. Some people think that a downturn in the economy can actually help it stay strong in the long run.
  2. There's a debate about whether leaders should work together more and share responsibility.
  3. The idea of a 'purge' suggests that sometimes it's necessary to clear out old systems to make way for new growth.

Coinbase Q1 2024 Earnings Update

DeFi Education • 499 implied HN points • 03 May 24
🔮 Crypto Investments
  1. Coinbase stock has seen a recent drop but has gained 16% since the last earnings report. This means it's important to look at the bigger picture rather than just short-term changes.
  2. The company is viewed as becoming a quasi-monopoly in the US, which suggests strong future potential. Holding the stock is based on this long-term belief.
  3. Investors are not focusing solely on earnings as a quick play, but rather on the overall growth and position of Coinbase in the market.

How BigTech Invested in AI Companies in 2023

AI Supremacy • 1022 implied HN points • 11 Jan 24
🕹 Technology Investments
  1. BigTech, including companies like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon, made significant investments in AI companies in 2023.
  2. Nvidia emerged as a leading investor in Generative AI in 2023, making diversified bets in the space and establishing a dedicated venture capital arm.
  3. Foundation models and development platforms were major beneficiaries of Big Tech's investment funding, with companies like Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Salesforce deeply involved.

Interest Rate Risks are Collapsing Banks

The Informationist • 1650 implied HN points • 30 Apr 23
💰 Finance Investments
  1. Interest rate risks can lead to bank collapses due to mismanagement and lack of oversight
  2. Different types of interest rate risks affect banks' financial positions, such as repricing risk and basis risk
  3. It is important for individuals to be cautious with their bank deposits and consider diversifying investments based on personal risk tolerance and long-term goals

Anthropic may go public in 2026

Alex's Personal Blog • 197 implied HN points • 03 Dec 25
🕹 Technology Investments
  1. Anthropic is planning for an IPO soon, possibly in 2026, which could make it one of the biggest public offerings in the tech industry. This comes during a time when there's high competition with OpenAI also aiming for a massive IPO.
  2. The Indian government decided not to force smartphone manufacturers to install a controversial app after public backlash. This shows the power of citizen voices against government overreach in tech matters.
  3. There is ongoing debate in the U.S. about allowing states to create their own AI regulations. Some lawmakers are worried that differing state rules could complicate things for AI companies, while others believe states should have the right to pass their own laws.

Could the USD Hyperinflate?

The Informationist • 1592 implied HN points • 07 May 23
💰 Finance Investments
  1. Hyperinflation is when a currency loses value rapidly due to extreme inflation.
  2. Some currencies have hyperinflated in the past, like those of Yugoslavia, Zimbabwe, and Hungary.
  3. While there is a chance the USD could hyperinflate, it is likely one of the last currencies to do so and owning hard assets can help protect against hyperinflation.

Silent Stan: How Stan Kroenke Built A $20 Billion Sports Empire Using Walmart’s Real Estate Playbook

Huddle Up • 68 implied HN points • 16 Jan 26
💼 Business Investments
  1. He turns sports teams into anchor tenants and controls the surrounding land so stadiums drive huge adjacent real estate value.
  2. By combining massive landholdings with ownership of top teams, he built a $20+ billion sports and real estate empire while operating privately.
  3. His anchor-tenant + land-control + long-timeline playbook is now being copied across sports, shifting negotiating power toward owners and changing how cities deal with teams.