The hottest Elections Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top World Politics Topics

The best-case scenario for Trump's second term

Noahpinion • 21882 implied HN points • 28 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Government Policies Trump Economy
  1. The economy could keep growing, leading to better wages for workers. If Trump doesn't interfere too much, this growth might continue.
  2. Political unrest may decrease, as many people seem tired of constant outrage. Americans might become more chill and tune out extreme movements on both sides.
  3. Trump might keep some successful policies from Biden while making adjustments. This could boost American industry without causing a lot of controversy.

The Media's Mental Gymnastics Before Election Day

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 1159 implied HN points • 02 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Media Elections Public Opinion Political Commentary Economy
  1. The media often interprets statements from public figures differently depending on their political stance. They might exaggerate comments from one side while downplaying those from another.
  2. There have been significant issues with job growth lately, with reports showing a very low number of jobs created. Most of the new jobs have been in government, which doesn't help the overall economy much.
  3. As the election approaches, media coverage tends to focus on distractions instead of important economic issues. This affects how voters perceive the situation.

Time to Retire "Demographics is Destiny"

Richard Hanania's Newsletter • 2535 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Demographics Political theory Political parties
  1. People's political views often don't come from their backgrounds but from emotions and cultural connections. This means demographics alone don't predict how someone will vote.
  2. Political appeal can change over time, as seen in shifts in how different groups vote. Issues like personality and presentation can matter more than policies.
  3. Instead of focusing on demographics, it's more effective to convince influential people and share ideas. The masses are often influenced by trends and marketing rather than deep understanding.

A Note from Bari—and Our Big Thanksgiving Deal

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 1933 implied HN points • 27 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Media Journalism Public Opinion Political Analysis
  1. The Free Press has grown to over 935,000 subscribers, showing strong support and trust from the audience. This growth is almost double compared to last year.
  2. They have covered significant events like the presidential election, focusing on real issues and voices from everyday Americans, which has shaped their trusted reporting.
  3. The organization is expanding its presence through documentaries, podcasts, and live events, aiming to engage with the community and enhance its media offerings.

Mantic Monday: Judgment Day

Astral Codex Ten • 13283 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Democracy Political Climate Foreign Policy
  1. Elections can feel like a wild rollercoaster ride, creating a lot of anxiety and drama for everyone involved. Many people are so tense about the outcomes that it can affect their mental health.
  2. Prediction markets offer a way for people to bet on outcomes, but they can be unreliable. Sometimes, one big bet can skew results, leading to people misinterpreting the chances of candidates.
  3. In the end, elections are more than just picking leaders; they're a moment where everyone feels the weight of the future. It's a reminder of our shared hopes and fears, no matter our backgrounds.
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The alternate reality of RFK and the antivaxers

Noahpinion • 11235 implied HN points • 27 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Health Policy Social movements Science communication Public Health
  1. RFK Jr. has been a strong opponent of vaccines, which may influence U.S. vaccination policies if he takes a leadership role in the government. This could lead to less public support for vaccinations.
  2. Beliefs can be useful for creating group unity, even if those beliefs are not based on facts. Sometimes, being a part of a group means accepting ideas that might not be true in reality.
  3. The tension between what is real and what people believe can impact society. It shows how important it is to balance scientific facts with how communities view and accept those facts.

Shift Shaping

Doomberg • 6570 implied HN points • 09 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Climate Policy Energy Government International relations
  1. Trump's election may negatively impact climate change efforts, as many leaders are skipping important climate meetings. It seems fewer people are interested in tackling climate issues right now.
  2. While Trump used to criticize climate agreements, his focus might now lean towards boosting American industries, even if it increases carbon emissions. He believes prioritizing local manufacturing is more important.
  3. There's a belief that Trump's return to power could shift environmental policies significantly, possibly leading to a long-term impact on climate efforts and regulations. His supporters seem to back him partly due to discontent with current environmental strategies.

As We Stare Down the Precipice, Final Ruminations

Simplicius's Garden of Knowledge • 10571 implied HN points • 31 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Media Public Opinion Political parties Trust
  1. A significant change is happening in the political landscape, particularly with the upcoming election, which could have far-reaching consequences. Many people are anxious about whether this change will bring chaos or improvement.
  2. Major media outlets have chosen not to endorse any presidential candidate this election, which is unusual and signals a loss of confidence in the current leadership and candidates.
  3. Trust in journalists and media has fallen to alarming low levels, even below Congress. This reflects a growing disconnect between media narratives and the public's beliefs about accuracy and truth.

Harris’s Lost Week

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 2298 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Analysis Campaigning Public Opinion Media influence
  1. Kamala Harris's speeches and actions during a crucial week seemed overshadowed by Joe Biden's controversial remarks. This created confusion and drew attention away from her message.
  2. Donald Trump was actively campaigning and making headlines, which left Harris and the Democrats trying to play catch-up. Trump's visibility and campaigning style were noticeably more vigorous.
  3. There are signs that Democrats may be struggling with voter enthusiasm, especially among key voter groups. Despite some polls showing enthusiasm, early voting results suggest weaknesses in support.

With Kennedy on Board, This is What a Trump Win Will Mean for Democrats

Popular Rationalism • 1367 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Public Health Political parties Pharmaceuticals Vaccine Safety
  1. A Trump win could force the Democratic Party to rethink its ties with the pharmaceutical industry. This may lead to more transparency and accountability in health policies.
  2. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is seen as a potential leader who could push for a health agenda focused on questioning the status quo and prioritizing public health over profit.
  3. The public is becoming more aware of vaccine safety issues, and this awareness may change how health policies are formed and implemented in the future.

ACX Endorses Harris, Oliver, Or Stein

Astral Codex Ten • 37235 implied HN points • 30 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political parties Political theory Government Accountability Political Campaigns
  1. It's suggested to vote for Kamala Harris in swing states and consider third-party candidates in safe states. This is a way to support candidates seen as better alternatives to Donald Trump.
  2. There are concerns about Donald Trump's authoritarian tendencies, including potential manipulation of election processes and threats to opponents. This could gradually undermine democracy.
  3. Some argue that while both major parties have authoritarian traits, the urgency to prevent Trump's rise is heightened since he might more openly challenge democratic norms compared to the Democrats.

Rough Times Ahead for News Business as Trump Bump Gives Way to Trump Dump

Big Technology • 5379 implied HN points • 15 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Media Trump Public Opinion Political strategy
  1. The news business is facing tough times after Trump's latest election win. Many viewers are tuning out and canceling their subscriptions.
  2. Unlike the excitement around Trump's first win, this time people feel exhausted and less interested in political news. They are questioning whether their subscriptions are worth it now.
  3. Some media outlets that positioned themselves as opposing Trump are struggling to keep their audience. Meanwhile, some pro-Trump platforms are seeing a rise in popularity.

Four years of Noahpinion

Noahpinion • 15882 implied HN points • 24 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political parties Policy Analysis International relations Social Issues
  1. The return of Trump as president signals a big change in American politics. Progressivism seems to be struggling, and many Democrats need to rethink their strategies to reconnect with voters.
  2. Global liberalism is facing serious challenges as countries like China and Russia assert more power. The cooperation among democracies to combat authoritarianism seems to be fading.
  3. Advances in technology, especially in AI and industrial policy, hold promise for the future. While concerns about job loss due to AI exist, there are reasons to be optimistic about how technology can enhance human workers' capabilities.

THE SHOW NOTES: Stenographers Revolt, Kamala's Employment Data Problem, & What Is Happening at CNN?

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 879 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Government Media Campaigns Public Policy
  1. Job growth in the U.S. has slowed down a lot, with only 12,000 new jobs added in October. This is a big drop from what experts expected, which could hurt the Harris campaign's message about the economy.
  2. The White House changed a transcript to remove comments made by President Biden that insulted Trump supporters. This has caused a disagreement with the federal stenographers' office over transcript accuracy.
  3. CNN faced backlash for allowing a guest to mock JD Vance's family struggles during a discussion. This was seen as disrespectful, given the serious background of addiction in his family.

The Dawn of a New Civilization

Contemplations on the Tree of Woe • 4524 implied HN points • 08 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political theory Historical Analysis Civic engagement Societal Change
  1. The emergence of the Aenean civilization represents a shift from ambition-driven actions to thoughtful and cautious progress. This new mindset respects both history and the fragility of our future.
  2. Elon Musk's support for Donald Trump symbolizes a collaboration between futurism and populism, which aims to take humanity beyond Earth and face existential threats together.
  3. The Aenean spirit understands the importance of balancing dreams of exploration with the reality of potential risks. It seeks to ensure humanity's survival through deliberate actions rather than reckless pursuits.

Like 2008—but Better

Magic + Loss • 477 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Public Opinion Political trends Democratic Party Campaigns
  1. Democratic excitement for the upcoming election is higher than it was in 2008, with 77% of Democrats feeling enthusiastic. This shows a strong positive shift compared to the 50% enthusiastic in 2016.
  2. The energy and enthusiasm can be seen in rallies and public engagement, indicating that this election could be pivotal.
  3. Experts believe this enthusiasm for the election is significant and might play a crucial role in the outcome.

I Highly Recommend Adam Jentleson’s Critique Of Adam Jentleson

Singal-Minded • 1036 implied HN points • 17 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Policy Political parties Public Opinion Activism
  1. Democrats need to focus on building a strong voting base to make a comeback in elections. They should aim for clear and ambitious electoral goals, like winning a large number of electoral votes.
  2. Interest groups can sometimes hurt the Democrats by pushing narrow agendas. Democrats should find a balance between supporting important causes and appealing to a wider audience.
  3. Political opinions and strategies can change over time. As the political landscape shifts, some politicians may backtrack on their earlier views to stay relevant, which can be frustrating for those who held steadfast positions.

Links For November 2024

Astral Codex Ten • 12664 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Legislation Political parties Public Opinion Campaigns
  1. Ancient Chinese customs included burying people with passports for the afterlife. This practice was believed to help them gain entry into the underworld.
  2. A new drug for schizophrenia is approved, showing promise for fewer side effects and better treatment for negative symptoms, but it has a high starting price.
  3. Recent studies show that teaching experience may not be as important as previously thought, as using less experienced teachers can lead to worse student performance.

Garbage In/Garbage Out

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 2138 implied HN points • 31 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Campaigns Political parties Media
  1. The race is very close, and polls show a shift towards Trump, even if some overall numbers may be off. It's important to pay attention to these trends as Election Day nears.
  2. Biden's remark about Trump supporters being 'garbage' could be more damaging to his campaign than a comedian's joke about Puerto Rico, possibly alienating undecided voters.
  3. Early voting numbers for Democrats are concerning, especially among black voters in key states. Republicans are doing better in early voting than in previous elections.

The Failure to Secure Elections

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 1378 implied HN points • 31 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Media Conspiracy Legislation
  1. There have been issues with voting technology, like a glitch in Michigan that affected some voters. This has led to accusations from both sides about election integrity.
  2. Some media outlets focus on conspiracy theories without addressing real problems in the election systems, like unauthorized votes and security lapses.
  3. The debate about election security is divided, with one side feeling ignored and the other side accused of spreading falsehoods. This causes distrust in the electoral process.

2024 Presidential Election Night Analysis Guide

COVID Reason • 376 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Demographics Political trends Analysis
  1. In the last two presidential elections, small vote margins decided the winners. It shows how every vote really counts.
  2. It's important to watch specific voter groups like Gen Z males and working-class women, as their choices can greatly affect the results.
  3. Each state has different trends and thresholds for winning, so knowing the local demographics can help predict who might win.

How Trump will actually turn America into the 'garbage can of the world'

The Signorile Report • 1478 implied HN points • 31 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Economy Policy Government Media
  1. If Trump wins, he may give Elon Musk the power to cut $2 trillion in federal spending, which could hurt many Americans by affecting key programs like Social Security and Medicare.
  2. Companies are getting ready to raise prices due to Trump's planned tariffs on foreign goods, which could add to inflation just as it starts to ease.
  3. Overall, Trump's policies might undo the strong economy built during Biden's presidency, potentially turning the U.S. into a less favorable place for everyday people.

ATW Livestream Tonight at 8 PM ET/7 PM CT

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 1815 implied HN points • 25 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Media Government Elections Public Opinion Events
  1. There is a livestream event called 'America This Week' happening tonight at 8 PM ET. It's a chance to catch up on the latest news and media topics.
  2. The hosts, Matt Taibbi and Walter Kirn, plan to add some festive fun to the discussions since it's around Thanksgiving time.
  3. Viewers can watch the livestream on platforms like YouTube and Rumble, or follow updates on social media.

What drove Asian and Hispanic voters to the right in 2024

Noahpinion • 16353 implied HN points • 20 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting behavior Political trends Demographics Party Dynamics
  1. Asian and Hispanic voters shifted to the right in the 2024 election due to a mix of economic concerns and perceived disconnection from the Democratic Party's values. Many felt that their priorities were not being addressed.
  2. For Asian voters, issues like crime and education were key factors. Many were frustrated with rising crime rates and felt that the Democrats were not prioritizing their safety and educational opportunities.
  3. Hispanic voters also expressed economic concerns, especially about inflation and rising costs. Some felt that the Democratic Party was out of touch with their family values and priorities, contributing to their shift toward Republicans.

It's Time to Redefine "Fringe"

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 14141 implied HN points • 19 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Commentary Government Policy Public Health Elections Social Issues
  1. The term 'fringe' is often used to dismiss views that many people actually support. It's important to reconsider what we label as fringe.
  2. Critics can be quick to judge individuals based on their views without considering the larger public opinion that might align with those views.
  3. There seems to be a disconnect between mainstream experts and the beliefs of the general population, leading to debates about academic freedom and public health policy.

The Most Accurate Pollster of 2020 Releases Their Prediction!

COVID Reason • 713 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling Elections Voter trends Political Analysis Demographics
  1. Atlas Intel was the most accurate pollster in the 2020 election, using a digital-first approach to track voter demographics effectively.
  2. In 2024, Trump is gaining more support among Hispanic and Black voters compared to 2020, showing a notable trend.
  3. Kamala Harris has solid support among Democrats but is struggling more with Independents compared to Biden in 2020.

THE SHOW NOTES: The Garbage Man, Van Jones Blasts Progressives, & 60 Million Votes

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 879 implied HN points • 31 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Political Commentary Voter Turnout Government Policies
  1. Donald Trump is using humor to respond to Joe Biden's comments about his supporters, even campaigning in a garbage truck. It's a way to turn the insult into a joke.
  2. Van Jones is criticizing progressives who support Hamas, highlighting divisions within political movements. His remarks show a need for clearer stances on complex issues.
  3. Early voting is already high with around 60 million Americans having voted, but this doesn't guarantee the outcome of the election. It's a reminder that early numbers can be misleading.

President Biden Literally Calls Half of America "Garbage"

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 2098 implied HN points • 30 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Commentary Media Trust Public Opinion Political Rhetoric
  1. President Biden called Trump supporters 'garbage,' which many are interpreting as an insult to about half of the country.
  2. After his comments, the White House tried to clarify Biden's words but many think this just caused more confusion.
  3. There's growing distrust in the media as they seem to cover up or spin what Biden said, which reflects a larger issue of credibility in journalism.

Why Trump's racist rally at the Garden is a turning point in the campaign

The Signorile Report • 2917 implied HN points • 29 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Racism Media Public Opinion
  1. Trump held a rally where he and his supporters made a lot of racist and hateful comments. This event was different from his usual rallies and it shocked many people.
  2. The media reacted strongly to the rally, with major outlets labeling it explicitly as 'racist' for the first time. This attention might change how some voters view Trump as his comments may have crossed a line.
  3. There seems to be tension within Trump's campaign because of the backlash. Some strategists are worried about how these comments could affect votes, especially in states with large Latino and Puerto Rican populations.

17 Thoughts on the Election

Richard Hanania's Newsletter • 1536 implied HN points • 04 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political trends Party Dynamics Public Opinion
  1. Trump has a unique appeal that other Republicans struggle to replicate. His strong support shows he stands out in the party.
  2. Abortion might be a key issue in the election, especially for women voters. Depending on the outcome, it could change how politics handles abortion going forward.
  3. Trump may redirect blame for abortion issues to pro-life supporters if things don't go well for him, which might shift their influence in the GOP.

Team Technocrat vs. Team Woke

In My Tribe • 653 implied HN points • 09 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Parties Voters Campaigns Political theory
  1. The Democratic Party has two main groups: Team Technocrat and Team Woke. Both seem to be trying to gain influence after the recent election.
  2. The outcome of the election is being interpreted differently, and it's not a clear win or loss for either faction. Events leading up to the 2028 election could change everything.
  3. Swing voters might not see certain candidates, like Kamala Harris, as legitimate. They tend to prefer candidates who seem more credible and have campaigned actively.

7 Reasons Democrats Should Be Optimistic About Their Chances in 2026 and 2028

Noahpinion • 22765 implied HN points • 15 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political parties Public Opinion Campaign strategies Political Analysis
  1. Lower voter turnout could actually help Democrats win in future elections, as they tend to do better when fewer voters show up.
  2. Republicans face a challenge in finding a strong leader to replace Trump, which may hurt their ability to energize voters in upcoming elections.
  3. Historically, when one party is in power, the public often shifts against them, suggesting Democrats might benefit in the next elections.

P.R. Problems: Maybe I Don't Understand Politics Very Well, Actually

Welcome to Garbagetown • 1964 implied HN points • 30 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Media Political Rhetoric Public Opinion Party Politics
  1. Political communication often surprises people, especially when shocking statements come from unexpected places, like comedians during serious events.
  2. The media tends to focus on certain controversial remarks while ignoring larger, more dangerous political issues, which can distort public perception.
  3. Voting is crucial in determining the country's future, especially when faced with extreme political ideologies that threaten democracy and people's rights.

Too Much Of What Happened Was Not Normal

Emerald Robinson’s The Right Way • 3293 implied HN points • 28 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Commentary Elections Biden administration Civil Rights Media influence
  1. A lot of what is happening today doesn't feel normal, and many people are concerned about the state of leadership. It suggests that people question the actions and decisions of current political leaders.
  2. Some believe that the government and big tech are working together to control information and limit free speech. This creates fear and distrust among the public.
  3. Many people feel that they can voice their opinions and protest against current leaders, believing they have the right to influence how their country is run. There's a sense of disillusionment with authority.

THE SHOW NOTES: Biden's October Surprise

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 1199 implied HN points • 30 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Government Public Opinion Political Analysis Legislation
  1. Biden made controversial comments calling Trump supporters 'garbage' just before the election, which drew backlash from various political figures.
  2. The White House quickly tried to clarify Biden's remarks, but many were unconvinced and criticized him for the language used.
  3. Kamala Harris also faced scrutiny for her performance in a TV interview, highlighting challenges within the Democratic campaign leading up to the election.

The New Issue Of JOHNSTONE Is Available To Order Or Download

Caitlin’s Newsletter • 447 implied HN points • 27 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Foreign Policy Political Commentary War Empire
  1. The new edition of JOHNSTONE magazine is out, and you can get it in print or as a digital copy for whatever price you want.
  2. The magazine discusses the current political climate, highlighting Trump's role in representing a harsh reality about the U.S. empire.
  3. It also touches on issues like the situation in Gaza and critiques the mainstream narrative surrounding global conflicts.

You don't have to endorse anyone, you can just vote (and other thoughts on the election)

The Intrinsic Perspective • 4533 implied HN points • 04 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Endorsements Voting Political Bias
  1. Endorsements from celebrities and public figures are more common now in elections. Many famous people have publicly supported candidates like Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
  2. Polls and prediction markets are often unreliable in predicting election outcomes. Their predictions don't always match the real results.
  3. Voting should be seen as an expression of your values. You don’t need to endorse someone to make your voice heard at the polls.

The educated professional class is out of touch with America

Noahpinion • 28294 implied HN points • 10 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political parties Voter Demographics Policy Analysis
  1. The educated professional class in America is growing more disconnected from the values and beliefs of the rest of the population. This split affects political views and voting patterns.
  2. Education levels in America have become polarized, with the non-college-educated voters increasingly leaning towards the Republican party. This creates challenges for Democrats, who mostly appeal to college-educated individuals.
  3. Many Americans are reconsidering the value of a college education due to rising costs and minimal benefits. If colleges want to improve enrollment, they need to make their programs more affordable and relevant.

Identity politics isn't working

Noahpinion • 36824 implied HN points • 07 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political strategy Voting Trends Identity politics Public Opinion
  1. Identity politics isn't connecting with voters. Treating people as part of a racial group rather than as individuals hasn’t worked well for Democrats.
  2. Inflation is a bigger concern for people than unemployment. Voters are more focused on rising costs than job numbers.
  3. The educated class is losing touch with regular folks. There needs to be better understanding and communication between these groups.

When the Edge Lords Lead

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 1838 implied HN points • 29 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Commentary Elections Campaign strategies Voter Behavior Media influence
  1. The people leading Trump's events tend to be edgy and enjoy making shocking jokes, which can backfire with voters. They don’t seem to recognize how their humor might upset others.
  2. Comedian Tony Hinchcliffe made a joke that offended many, and his humor reflects how tone-deaf these leaders are to wider voter opinions. This can be risky for Trump’s campaign.
  3. As the election approaches, every mistake could sway undecided voters, so it's crucial for campaigns to focus on appealing to all potential supporters, not just their base.