The hottest Elections Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top World Politics Topics

The Media's Mental Gymnastics Before Election Day

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 1159 implied HN points • 02 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections
  1. The media often interprets statements from public figures differently depending on their political stance. They might exaggerate comments from one side while downplaying those from another.
  2. There have been significant issues with job growth lately, with reports showing a very low number of jobs created. Most of the new jobs have been in government, which doesn't help the overall economy much.
  3. As the election approaches, media coverage tends to focus on distractions instead of important economic issues. This affects how voters perceive the situation.

As We Stare Down the Precipice, Final Ruminations

Simplicius's Garden of Knowledge • 10571 implied HN points • 31 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections
  1. A significant change is happening in the political landscape, particularly with the upcoming election, which could have far-reaching consequences. Many people are anxious about whether this change will bring chaos or improvement.
  2. Major media outlets have chosen not to endorse any presidential candidate this election, which is unusual and signals a loss of confidence in the current leadership and candidates.
  3. Trust in journalists and media has fallen to alarming low levels, even below Congress. This reflects a growing disconnect between media narratives and the public's beliefs about accuracy and truth.

Harris’s Lost Week

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 2298 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections
  1. Kamala Harris's speeches and actions during a crucial week seemed overshadowed by Joe Biden's controversial remarks. This created confusion and drew attention away from her message.
  2. Donald Trump was actively campaigning and making headlines, which left Harris and the Democrats trying to play catch-up. Trump's visibility and campaigning style were noticeably more vigorous.
  3. There are signs that Democrats may be struggling with voter enthusiasm, especially among key voter groups. Despite some polls showing enthusiasm, early voting results suggest weaknesses in support.

With Kennedy on Board, This is What a Trump Win Will Mean for Democrats

Popular Rationalism • 1367 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections
  1. A Trump win could force the Democratic Party to rethink its ties with the pharmaceutical industry. This may lead to more transparency and accountability in health policies.
  2. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is seen as a potential leader who could push for a health agenda focused on questioning the status quo and prioritizing public health over profit.
  3. The public is becoming more aware of vaccine safety issues, and this awareness may change how health policies are formed and implemented in the future.

"Your Word Is Your Bond", What It Means.

Points And Figures • 479 implied HN points • 25 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections
  1. Honesty and personal accountability are core to managing money; if you don’t stand behind your decisions, you lose trust and face real consequences.
  2. Public finance roles like Treasurer require proven experience, expertise, and transparency, so voters should prefer candidates who have actually managed money.
  3. Trustworthy officials sustain public confidence and shape how effectively government works, so who holds the office matters for protecting taxpayers and shared values.
Get a weekly roundup of the best Substack posts, by hacker news affinity:

THE SHOW NOTES: Stenographers Revolt, Kamala's Employment Data Problem, & What Is Happening at CNN?

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 879 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections
  1. Job growth in the U.S. has slowed down a lot, with only 12,000 new jobs added in October. This is a big drop from what experts expected, which could hurt the Harris campaign's message about the economy.
  2. The White House changed a transcript to remove comments made by President Biden that insulted Trump supporters. This has caused a disagreement with the federal stenographers' office over transcript accuracy.
  3. CNN faced backlash for allowing a guest to mock JD Vance's family struggles during a discussion. This was seen as disrespectful, given the serious background of addiction in his family.

SBSQ #30: Will liberals turn against sports betting?

Silver Bulletin • 293 implied HN points • 23 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections
  1. He doesn’t incorporate prediction market prices into his models because he wants to preserve an independent perspective and avoid pre-diluting or effectively betting against his own forecasts.
  2. Prediction market inputs create technical problems — they can cause recursion and feedback loops and are highly correlated with existing signals, which makes models unstable and hard to fit robustly.
  3. Sports betting is drawing bipartisan backlash, with lawmakers and public figures pushing restrictions and many people annoyed by the ads and industry influence, signaling potential political momentum for regulation.

Like 2008—but Better

Magic + Loss • 477 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections
  1. Democratic excitement for the upcoming election is higher than it was in 2008, with 77% of Democrats feeling enthusiastic. This shows a strong positive shift compared to the 50% enthusiastic in 2016.
  2. The energy and enthusiasm can be seen in rallies and public engagement, indicating that this election could be pivotal.
  3. Experts believe this enthusiasm for the election is significant and might play a crucial role in the outcome.

Garbage In/Garbage Out

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 2138 implied HN points • 31 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections
  1. The race is very close, and polls show a shift towards Trump, even if some overall numbers may be off. It's important to pay attention to these trends as Election Day nears.
  2. Biden's remark about Trump supporters being 'garbage' could be more damaging to his campaign than a comedian's joke about Puerto Rico, possibly alienating undecided voters.
  3. Early voting numbers for Democrats are concerning, especially among black voters in key states. Republicans are doing better in early voting than in previous elections.

The Failure to Secure Elections

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 1378 implied HN points • 31 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections
  1. There have been issues with voting technology, like a glitch in Michigan that affected some voters. This has led to accusations from both sides about election integrity.
  2. Some media outlets focus on conspiracy theories without addressing real problems in the election systems, like unauthorized votes and security lapses.
  3. The debate about election security is divided, with one side feeling ignored and the other side accused of spreading falsehoods. This causes distrust in the electoral process.

San Francisco's urban revival is in danger

Noahpinion • 30235 implied HN points • 12 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections
  1. San Francisco’s recent turnaround — big drops in crime and some pro-housing moves — came from a moderate mayor working with a slim moderate majority on the Board of Supervisors.
  2. Before that, a hardline progressive board blocked housing and public-safety reforms, contributing to high crime, very low housing production, and economic decline.
  3. A single upcoming District 4 special election could flip the Board back to hardline progressives, which would likely derail the city’s recovery and make future reforms much harder to pass.

2024 Presidential Election Night Analysis Guide

COVID Reason • 376 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections
  1. In the last two presidential elections, small vote margins decided the winners. It shows how every vote really counts.
  2. It's important to watch specific voter groups like Gen Z males and working-class women, as their choices can greatly affect the results.
  3. Each state has different trends and thresholds for winning, so knowing the local demographics can help predict who might win.

How Trump will actually turn America into the 'garbage can of the world'

The Signorile Report • 1478 implied HN points • 31 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections
  1. If Trump wins, he may give Elon Musk the power to cut $2 trillion in federal spending, which could hurt many Americans by affecting key programs like Social Security and Medicare.
  2. Companies are getting ready to raise prices due to Trump's planned tariffs on foreign goods, which could add to inflation just as it starts to ease.
  3. Overall, Trump's policies might undo the strong economy built during Biden's presidency, potentially turning the U.S. into a less favorable place for everyday people.

The Most Accurate Pollster of 2020 Releases Their Prediction!

COVID Reason • 713 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections
  1. Atlas Intel was the most accurate pollster in the 2020 election, using a digital-first approach to track voter demographics effectively.
  2. In 2024, Trump is gaining more support among Hispanic and Black voters compared to 2020, showing a notable trend.
  3. Kamala Harris has solid support among Democrats but is struggling more with Independents compared to Biden in 2020.

THE SHOW NOTES: The Garbage Man, Van Jones Blasts Progressives, & 60 Million Votes

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 879 implied HN points • 31 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections
  1. Donald Trump is using humor to respond to Joe Biden's comments about his supporters, even campaigning in a garbage truck. It's a way to turn the insult into a joke.
  2. Van Jones is criticizing progressives who support Hamas, highlighting divisions within political movements. His remarks show a need for clearer stances on complex issues.
  3. Early voting is already high with around 60 million Americans having voted, but this doesn't guarantee the outcome of the election. It's a reminder that early numbers can be misleading.

President Biden Literally Calls Half of America "Garbage"

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 2098 implied HN points • 30 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections
  1. President Biden called Trump supporters 'garbage,' which many are interpreting as an insult to about half of the country.
  2. After his comments, the White House tried to clarify Biden's words but many think this just caused more confusion.
  3. There's growing distrust in the media as they seem to cover up or spin what Biden said, which reflects a larger issue of credibility in journalism.

Why Trump's racist rally at the Garden is a turning point in the campaign

The Signorile Report • 2917 implied HN points • 29 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections
  1. Trump held a rally where he and his supporters made a lot of racist and hateful comments. This event was different from his usual rallies and it shocked many people.
  2. The media reacted strongly to the rally, with major outlets labeling it explicitly as 'racist' for the first time. This attention might change how some voters view Trump as his comments may have crossed a line.
  3. There seems to be tension within Trump's campaign because of the backlash. Some strategists are worried about how these comments could affect votes, especially in states with large Latino and Puerto Rican populations.

TGIF: Bring Them Back from Palm Beach

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 1650 implied HN points • 20 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections
  1. A senior national security official, Joe Kent, resigned over the Iran war, quickly joined the new right media circuit making Israel-centric claims, and is reportedly under FBI investigation for allegedly sharing classified information.
  2. A reductive, conspiratorial narrative blaming Israel for many unrelated global events is spreading widely online, simplifying complex conflicts and gaining traction across different platforms.
  3. The piece is a short, sarcastic political and cultural roundup produced with AI narration, and much of the deeper reporting is behind a paywall that asks readers to subscribe.

Joe Kent's Courage and Conscience, and the Craven Careerism of Tulsi Gabbard

Glenn Greenwald • 3656 implied HN points • 18 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections
  1. She has long warned against regime-change wars and strongly opposed the idea of a U.S. war with Iran.
  2. Despite that rhetoric, she has repeatedly accepted humiliations and jumped through hoops to cling to her Washington position, with a recent action described as a new low.
  3. Her behavior is contrasted with another figure’s courage and conscience, highlighting a split between careerism and principled opposition to war.

P.R. Problems: Maybe I Don't Understand Politics Very Well, Actually

Welcome to Garbagetown • 1964 implied HN points • 30 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections
  1. Political communication often surprises people, especially when shocking statements come from unexpected places, like comedians during serious events.
  2. The media tends to focus on certain controversial remarks while ignoring larger, more dangerous political issues, which can distort public perception.
  3. Voting is crucial in determining the country's future, especially when faced with extreme political ideologies that threaten democracy and people's rights.

Too Much Of What Happened Was Not Normal

Emerald Robinson’s The Right Way • 3293 implied HN points • 28 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections
  1. A lot of what is happening today doesn't feel normal, and many people are concerned about the state of leadership. It suggests that people question the actions and decisions of current political leaders.
  2. Some believe that the government and big tech are working together to control information and limit free speech. This creates fear and distrust among the public.
  3. Many people feel that they can voice their opinions and protest against current leaders, believing they have the right to influence how their country is run. There's a sense of disillusionment with authority.

SEIU Delenda Est

Astral Codex Ten • 41984 implied HN points • 06 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections
  1. SEIU repeatedly uses ballot initiatives as leverage, proposing attractive-sounding measures designed to wreck targeted industries and then demanding money or union access in exchange for withdrawing them.
  2. The proposed California Billionaire Tax is poorly written—taxing unrealized gains, valuing stakes by voting rights, and applying retroactively—and could drive billionaires and tech founders out of the state, possibly reducing revenue and harming Silicon Valley.
  3. The ballot proposition system creates a perverse incentive for interest groups to design destructive but popular measures as bargaining chips, effectively turning direct democracy into a tool for political extortion.

THE SHOW NOTES: Biden's October Surprise

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 1199 implied HN points • 30 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections
  1. Biden made controversial comments calling Trump supporters 'garbage' just before the election, which drew backlash from various political figures.
  2. The White House quickly tried to clarify Biden's remarks, but many were unconvinced and criticized him for the language used.
  3. Kamala Harris also faced scrutiny for her performance in a TV interview, highlighting challenges within the Democratic campaign leading up to the election.

When the Edge Lords Lead

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 1838 implied HN points • 29 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections
  1. The people leading Trump's events tend to be edgy and enjoy making shocking jokes, which can backfire with voters. They don’t seem to recognize how their humor might upset others.
  2. Comedian Tony Hinchcliffe made a joke that offended many, and his humor reflects how tone-deaf these leaders are to wider voter opinions. This can be risky for Trump’s campaign.
  3. As the election approaches, every mistake could sway undecided voters, so it's crucial for campaigns to focus on appealing to all potential supporters, not just their base.

You Can’t Groom an Adult

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 806 implied HN points • 20 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections
  1. A woman publicly accused Daniel Biss of being a groomer, saying they had an inappropriate relationship when she was a 20-year-old undergraduate and he was 26.
  2. The piece stresses that the alleged relationship did not involve a minor, coercion, rape, or even sexual intercourse, suggesting it falls short of the worst forms of abuse usually associated with grooming.
  3. Because the claim surfaced just after Biss won a high-profile primary and the accuser has political ties, the allegation looks like it could be an opportunistic political hit rather than a clear-cut ethical or legal violation.

Harris Could Win. So Could Trump.

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 2437 implied HN points • 28 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections
  1. Kamala Harris has a real chance to win if women voters turn out in higher numbers, especially in swing states. Early voting trends show women are leading in participation.
  2. The Republicans are worried about voter turnout, especially among women and Black voters. Both parties need to focus on getting their supporters to the polls.
  3. Trump's controversial jokes and radical comments could harm his campaign. The media is likely to highlight these issues, which might discourage some potential voters.

Announcing My New Column in The Washington Post

Thinking in Bets • 138 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections
  1. Annie Duke is starting a new opinion column in The Washington Post, focusing on risk and decision-making. She'll share insights on how we interpret important data.
  2. The column will discuss the misleading nature of data interpretation, particularly regarding Black voters' support in elections. Duke argues that misinterpretations can be more harmful than misinformation.
  3. Annie's background as a decision scientist and former poker player helps her analyze how people make choices, which she'll explore in her writing.

Calling It

Dana Blankenhorn: Facing the Future • 138 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections
  1. Democrats have strong advantages for the upcoming election, including a solid candidate and effective campaign strategy. This suggests they are in a good position to win.
  2. Polls indicate that Democratic candidates are performing well, which could mean the overall race is more favorable for them than it appears.
  3. The strong economy and recent political events are likely to boost Democratic support, indicating a positive outlook for democracy in the upcoming elections.

THE SHOW NOTES: Nazi Republicans, 50 Million Votes, & Kamala Cringe

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 1159 implied HN points • 29 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections
  1. CNN has started using severe language, calling Republicans Nazis, linking them to a negative history. This creates a strong division in political discussions.
  2. 50 million Americans have voted early, showing a high level of engagement in the upcoming election. This could indicate strong turnout on election day.
  3. Kamala Harris's campaign has faced challenges, with her waiting until the last minute to showcase key moments. Her approach seems less appealing compared to other candidates.

Pervy Voters

Magic + Loss • 516 implied HN points • 30 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections
  1. Some voters make choices just to be rebellious, not because they truly believe in a candidate or party. They might want to shock people or go against the norm.
  2. Voting is usually about practical interests, like money or personal benefits, rather than just trying to be edgy or nonconformist.
  3. Spite can drive people to vote against their own values or interests, which can have serious consequences for democracy.

Here Comes The 2020 Playbook Again!

Emerald Robinson’s The Right Way • 3710 implied HN points • 24 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections
  1. Media is warning about delayed election results again, just like in 2020. This raises concerns about the voting process.
  2. Certain states consistently struggle to count votes quickly, which leads to suspicions about their election integrity.
  3. Voters are already experiencing issues with voting machines, raising more doubts about the fairness of the elections.

The Desire for Terror

Thinking about... • 1582 implied HN points • 08 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections
  1. A war with Iran or related actions could provoke or be followed by a terrorist attack on U.S. soil, which political actors might use as a pretext to cancel or federalize upcoming elections.
  2. Counterterror defenses have been weakened by policy choices, politicized and inexperienced leaders, and misplaced focus on immigration, making both foreign and domestic threats more likely and harder to stop.
  3. Citizens and local authorities must prepare now, avoid being surprised or panicked by an attack, and refuse to let any crisis be used to suspend democratic checks or steal elections.

Your Emotional Support Historian

Campaign Trails • 4844 implied HN points • 23 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections
  1. Historians are trained to look back at events, not predict the future. They often find it tricky to offer reassurance during election seasons.
  2. Making confident predictions can lead to embarrassment, as history shows many past predictions were wrong. This causes historians to be cautious when discussing possible outcomes.
  3. Predictions about elections are often unreliable and should be taken with a grain of salt. The best approach is to focus on getting people to vote rather than getting caught up in the predictions.

THE SHOW NOTES: Trump at MSG, The Disturbing Ad, & Nick Bosa

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 1179 implied HN points • 28 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections
  1. Donald Trump held a big rally at Madison Square Garden with many well-known guests. Some people were not happy with a comedian's controversial jokes at the event.
  2. The Israeli military attacked Iran's air defense systems as part of a response, but they chose not to target major facilities like nuclear sites after pressure from the U.S.
  3. Kamala Harris is pushing for changes in how female leaders are described in reports, but an internal review found no significant bias in the language used.

Harris's Bold Miscalculation

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 3397 implied HN points • 24 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections
  1. Democrats may have misjudged the election by not toning down their extreme views. They felt they could win just by being anti-Trump without appealing to moderates.
  2. Kamala Harris has stuck to her bold positions on issues like abortion and trans rights, which some believe could hurt her in the election. Instead of showing flexibility, she's chosen to dig in her heels.
  3. There are Republicans who oppose both candidates but feel that after Trump, those who supported Harris will have no influence in the GOP. They think Harris's supporters will be left out of future party decisions.

Monopoly Round-Up: Trump Loses on Tariffs, Has His 'Withdrawal from Afghanistan' Moment

BIG by Matt Stoller • 23721 implied HN points • 23 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections
  1. The Supreme Court said presidents can’t use IEEPA to impose tariffs, so the administration is pivoting to other trade laws to try to keep levies in place.
  2. Economically the ruling probably won’t move markets much because other authorities exist, but politically it’s a big blow that strips the president of a fast, unilateral tool and weakens his standing.
  3. Expect messy fallout: questions about $175 billion in refunds, lawsuits and corruption probes, and increased scrutiny of corporate mergers and firms that cooperated with the tariff program.

Steve Bannon: ICE agents at airports are “test run” for midterm elections

Weaponized • 11 implied HN points • 24 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections
  1. Steve Bannon said using ICE agents now at airports is a “test run” to train them for placing ICE at polling sites during the 2026 midterms.
  2. He and his allies argue putting federal agents at polls would stop noncitizens from voting and would ‘secure’ elections based on claims the 2020 result was stolen.
  3. Critics say this strategy and related pushes like the SAVE Act are voter suppression tactics designed to restrict voting and reduce turnout.

Bunk, Debunked

Magic + Loss • 894 implied HN points • 28 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections
  1. Kamala Harris is doing well in several polls, showing she's ahead of Trump nationally. This is encouraging for her supporters as it suggests strong backing.
  2. Trump is using aggressive and divisive language that echoes dangerous past movements. Many observers are concerned about the implications of this rhetoric.
  3. The results of these polls counter common narratives that suggest Harris is losing support among certain groups. It's important to rely on data rather than hearsay.