The hottest Commodities Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top World Politics Topics

Weekly Wrap 10th November 2023

Syncretica • 137 implied HN points • 10 Nov 23
đź’° Finance Commodities
  1. Nuscale faced challenges and lacked ambition in nuclear energy.
  2. Production of food with energy is possible and competitive in cost and carbon.
  3. US thermal coal industry is struggling while the lithium market is undergoing a slowdown.

What's happening with Uranium?

Philoinvestor • 137 implied HN points • 16 Sep 23
đź’° Finance Commodities
  1. Prices of Uranium have been affected by historical events like the Fukushima disaster.
  2. Global geopolitical shifts are increasing interest in nuclear power and Uranium.
  3. Investing in Uranium is volatile and may lead to sudden spikes, but requires caution and careful consideration.

The Bear Arrives

Diane Francis • 319 implied HN points • 12 May 22
đź’° Finance Commodities
  1. A bear market happens when stock prices drop by at least 20% over a year. This can make investing riskier during that time.
  2. Current global issues, like Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have disrupted markets and increased prices for essentials.
  3. China's strict COVID-19 lockdowns have hurt its economy, impacting supply chains and global trade.

Gold Hits $3,400 Because Everything Is Awesome...Except Literally Everything

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 27 implied HN points • 23 Jul 25
đź’° Finance Commodities
  1. Gold prices have risen significantly, signaling that the market is more unstable than it appears. It's a sign that people are starting to worry about the financial system.
  2. Even as the Fed lowers interest rates, bond yields are still going up, showing that the bond market is not reacting positively to current policies. This suggests there's a disconnect between what policymakers want and what's actually happening.
  3. Despite rising stock prices, many consumers are not financially healthy, often relying on credit to make everyday purchases. This points to a bigger issue beneath the surface of the economy.
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Thematics for 2026

Subsack • 4 implied HN points • 18 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Commodities
  1. AI and its infrastructure are the central investment theme, with big-model companies, chips, and a huge jump in storage demand (RAM and disk) driving a tech supercycle.
  2. Government action and geopolitics are reshaping markets, as strategic funding, regulation, and supply‑chain moves boost defence, rare earths, nuclear, and give crypto/stablecoins clearer legitimacy.
  3. Portfolios are being rebalanced for 2026: new themes like storage, drones, LNG, robotics and space are being added while travel, luxury, gambling and clean energy are being trimmed; pharma, crypto and precious metals stay as key hedges.

Why Gold At $10,000 Is Possible

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 18 implied HN points • 22 Jul 25
đź’° Finance Commodities
  1. We might be in a situation called a 'Crack-Up Boom,' where people lose faith in money and rush to buy real goods. This can lead to high inflation or even a total currency collapse.
  2. The stock market seems to be in an 'Everything Bubble,' with asset prices being higher than they should be. While some indicators suggest it's a bubble, it can still get bigger before it bursts.
  3. Investing in gold and Bitcoin is seen as a safe bet during uncertain times, and there are signs suggesting gold prices could go much higher than they are now.

Erb and Harvey are at it again

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 16 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Commodities
  1. Gold has had a huge rally, rising more than 50% in about ten months and breaching record highs around $4,000/oz, which has reignited investor enthusiasm and big price forecasts.
  2. Academic analysis says gold has not been a reliable inflation hedge over typical investment horizons and that high current prices tend to predict poor future real returns, so lofty prices imply limited expected gains.
  3. The rise of gold ETFs created a steady, structural demand that lifted prices, and the only realistic way to trigger much more demand would be a regulatory change letting commercial banks hold gold as reserves — something that looks unlikely.

The US Buys Rare Earths—Is Gold Or Silver Next?

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 15 implied HN points • 10 Jul 25
đź’° Finance Commodities
  1. The US government is investing in rare earth supplies, buying a stake in MP Materials. This means they want to ensure they have critical materials for things like electric cars and military equipment.
  2. This deal shows the US is trying to reduce reliance on other countries, especially China, for important resources. They want to secure their own supply chains.
  3. There is speculation that this could lead to the nationalization of other essential resources in the future, like gold or silver. It's a sign that the government is thinking about taking control of more critical assets.

Don't Sleep On Silver

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 31 implied HN points • 14 Feb 25
đź’° Finance Commodities
  1. Silver is getting more attention from small investors because it's cheaper and offers good growth potential. Many see it as a practical investment to build wealth gradually.
  2. Recent market events, like the Silver Squeeze of 2021, have highlighted the influence of retail investors and could lead to a stronger focus on silver in future market shifts.
  3. The current high gold-to-silver ratio suggests that silver might be undervalued and ready for a price surge, especially as gold continues to rise. This could be a good time to invest in silver.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.4% Below 2022 Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 04 Dec 24
đź’° Finance Commodities
  1. House prices adjusted for inflation are currently 1.4% lower than their peak in 2022. This means that while prices have gone up, they haven't reached their highest point when you factor in inflation.
  2. In nominal terms, house prices are at all-time highs, but the real value shows a different picture. This is important because it reflects the actual purchasing power of money over time.
  3. The price-to-rent ratio is 8.1% below its peak in 2022, suggesting that buying homes might be getting less attractive compared to renting in the current market.

Why Are Gold And The Dollar Trading Together?

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 19 implied HN points • 10 Jan 25
đź’° Finance Commodities
  1. Gold and the US Dollar are sometimes moving together, which can indicate stress in the global market. This unusual connection raises questions about economic stability.
  2. Central banks influence both gold prices and the dollar's value. Higher interest rates can make the dollar seem more appealing, but many still look to gold to protect against inflation.
  3. Events like political chaos and wars can make people feel uncertain, leading them to invest in gold as a safe option during tough times.

Gold Surpasses $2900 Per Ounce

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 14 implied HN points • 12 Feb 25
đź’° Finance Commodities
  1. Gold prices hit a new record, surpassing $2,900 per ounce, largely due to economic uncertainty and concerns about inflation. This has made gold an attractive option for many investors.
  2. Trade tensions between the US and China, along with tariffs on steel and aluminum, have pushed global capital towards gold as a safe investment. Countries like China are also building their gold reserves, which supports higher prices.
  3. Despite rising interest rates normally being bad for gold, the current economic landscape and investor fears about inflation are keeping demand strong. Many people see gold as a way to protect their wealth in uncertain times.

Trump’s Victory Has "Delayed The Fiscal Meltdown Scenario"...For Now

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 15 implied HN points • 22 Jan 25
đź’° Finance Commodities
  1. The stock market is doing well, but gold, silver, and Bitcoin are also gaining value. This shows that investors are already worried about future inflation.
  2. Gold and Bitcoin are acting as warning signs for money printing and potential economic trouble. They have seen significant growth compared to traditional U.S. Treasury bonds.
  3. There is a chance the Federal Reserve will have to resort to methods like quantitative easing again, which means they could start printing more money to stabilize the economy. This could lead to further increases in the value of sound money assets.

Geopolitical decoupling and commodity prices

Klement on Investing • 6 implied HN points • 10 Jan 24
🌍 World Politics Commodities
  1. Geopolitical tensions between the West, China, and Russia are leading to concerns about supply chain decoupling and rising commodity prices.
  2. Global supply chains are vulnerable, especially for critical raw materials like rare earth metals, impacting industrial production.
  3. An IMF research paper highlights the sensitivity of commodity prices to trade disruptions, showing potential surpluses and shortages in different regions.

Something's Gotta Give

What's Important? • 3 implied HN points • 17 May 23
đź’° Finance Commodities
  1. Global economy mystery impacting trillions of dollars in long-term wealth
  2. Expert opinion suggests emphasis on capex in a changing geopolitical landscape
  3. Challenges in balancing environmental consciousness with meeting commodity demands

What happens if China sneezes?

Klement on Investing • 1 implied HN point • 08 Feb 24
đź’° Finance Commodities
  1. Commodity prices are sensitive to both Chinese and US macro developments, with oil reacting similarly to both.
  2. Global equities are less sensitive to Chinese shocks compared to US shocks, needing a larger Chinese shock to create a similar reaction.
  3. While the impact on global equities from the Chinese economy might be smaller than a US recession, a large enough shock from China could still derail global equity markets.

Perpetually Open: Tokenized Gold & The Rise of 24/7 Onchain Markets

Coin Metrics' State of the Network • 0 implied HN points • 10 Mar 26
đź”® Crypto Commodities
  1. Onchain markets run 24/7 and can price macro assets in real time when traditional exchanges are closed, providing continuous price discovery during geopolitical shocks.
  2. Tokenized gold and onchain commodity perpetuals saw big flows and trading activity as investors used them for hedging and quick exposure to metals and oil.
  3. Permissionless perpetual platforms like Hyperliquid’s HIP‑3 have become meaningful venues for metals, energy, and equity exposure with rising volume and open interest, though liquidity and regulatory constraints mean the ecosystem is still early.

Investing Update: Is Energy The New Leader

Spilled Coffee • 0 implied HN points • 16 Mar 24
đź’° Finance Commodities
  1. The S&P 500 finished down for two consecutive weeks for the first time since October, showing a short-term cooling trend after many positive weeks.
  2. Energy has emerged as the top performing sector in 2024, with notable gains in oil and energy stocks outpacing the Nasdaq 100.
  3. Commercial real estate prices are rebounding and attracting investor interest, leading to substantial inflows into real estate-related investments, especially REITs.

Data Update 3 for 2021: Currencies, Commodities, Collectibles and Cryptos

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 28 Jan 21
đź’° Finance Commodities
  1. Investments can be classified into four main types: assets, commodities, currencies, and collectibles. Each type has its own characteristics that affect how they are priced and valued.
  2. Investing is about buying assets based on their value, while trading focuses on buying low and selling high without worrying about value. They are different approaches but both can lead to profit.
  3. During economic crises, different markets behave unpredictably, often moving together. This can make diversification harder, meaning spreading investments across various assets may not always reduce risk.

The Golden Rule? Thoughts on gold as an investment

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 20 Apr 13
đź’° Finance Commodities
  1. Gold doesn't generate cash flow on its own, making it hard to determine its true value. Many investors, including famous ones like Warren Buffett, prefer assets where they can estimate a value.
  2. Gold prices often rise with inflation and during times of crisis. People tend to buy gold when they worry about their financial safety, which shows its role as a protective asset.
  3. Using gold as insurance in your portfolio can be wise, especially during uncertain times. Even if it's priced high, it can help protect against major financial disasters.

Commodity companies and commodity dependent markets

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 30 Aug 09
đź’Ľ Business Commodities
  1. The value of commodity companies directly depends on the prices of the commodities they deal with. When commodity prices rise or fall, the value of related companies changes too.
  2. There are two main ways to predict future commodity prices: looking at historical price cycles or analyzing supply and demand factors. A mix of both methods can lead to better forecasts.
  3. When valuing commodity companies, it's important to remain neutral about commodity price predictions. This way, investors can make their own judgments about the quality of the company's value and the market conditions.

Slippery Slope: An Interview with Citigroup's Edward Morse

The Octavian Report • 0 implied HN points • 23 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Commodities
  1. Since 2014, U.S. shale plus oil sands and deepwater supply made oil much more responsive and eroded OPEC’s price power. That structural change likely keeps oil in a roughly $40–$65 per barrel range in the medium term.
  2. Renewables, natural gas, and electric vehicles are slowly eating into oil’s remaining strongholds (transport and petrochemicals), so fossil fuels’ share of energy should shrink long term and petrostates face capped revenues and greater fiscal stress.
  3. Improved productivity and cost declines have opened real opportunities in unconventional and deepwater plays (e.g., Argentina’s Vaca Muerta, Mexico, North Sea, Gulf of Mexico, Brazil), though geopolitical shocks like a Saudi–Iran conflict could still cause sharp, but unlikely, price spikes.

Latin American Future: Why Jorge Quiroga sees pain — and gain — ahead for Latin America

The Octavian Report • 0 implied HN points • 23 Dec 25
🌍 World Politics Commodities
  1. Venezuela’s economic collapse and harsh repression are the biggest geopolitical risk in the region, and what happens there will likely determine whether democracy spreads or authoritarianism deepens across neighboring countries.
  2. China has become South America’s main economic partner, buying commodities and driving investment, and stronger Pacific/Asian ties (like the Pacific Alliance) are a major positive amid rising protectionism from the north.
  3. Bolivia faces near-term pain as its gas bonanza winds down and policy mistakes could hurt the economy, but its huge lithium reserves give it a real chance to become a clean-energy powerhouse if it adopts the right governance and strategy.

Avoiding 10 Years of Market Stagnation

Jay's Data Stream • 0 implied HN points • 14 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Commodities
  1. The market looks expensive and history shows high valuations often lead to mediocre returns over the next decade, so future long-term gains may be limited.
  2. There’s no one right move for everyone — the best choice depends on your age, income, risk tolerance, and how much loss you can emotionally and financially handle.
  3. Instead of trying to time the market, focus on resilience: diversify new savings into bonds, international stocks, or gold, and make sure you could survive drawing from investments during a long downturn.

The Case for Buying WTI Crude Oil Futures & Selling Crude Oil ETFs (USO) Cash Covered Puts

The Tweetsift Report • 0 implied HN points • 02 Mar 23
đź’° Finance Commodities
  1. The price of WTI Crude oil & USO tends to fluctuate throughout the year, being higher at year-end and more volatile in the first quarter.
  2. Global economic state, geopolitical events, and technological advancements impact oil demand and prices.
  3. Considering patterns in oil trading, historical data, and global economic growth can guide investment decisions in oil futures.