The hottest Commodities Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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The Frankfurter Index

Doomberg • 6098 implied HN points • 30 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investment Currency Commodities Economic Theory Financial Analysis
  1. The price of everyday items can help us understand the true value of money over time. For example, the cost of hot dogs compared to the price of gold shows how much the dollar has changed.
  2. While the value of the US dollar has been decreasing, it's important to look at prices in relation to gold to see the bigger picture. Gold has been a constant measure of value throughout history.
  3. Some people worry that we will run out of oil, but advancements in technology suggest otherwise. Oil and gas companies are innovating and have plenty of resources available.

Chartbook 339 Uneven and combined development of what? How do we relate global dollars and global cocoa?

Chartbook • 600 implied HN points • 18 Dec 24
💼 Business Economics Capitalism Globalization Commodities Political Economy
  1. Global dollars and cocoa are connected within the system of capitalism, but they operate under very different political economies. Money is managed through global financial institutions, while cocoa production involves many poor farmers and large corporations.
  2. The relationship between cocoa and global dollars can be explored through the idea of 'sectors' in the economy, like the agro-industrial sector for cocoa and the financial sector for dollars. Each sector functions under its own rules and crises.
  3. Understanding how these sectors combine and differ helps to illustrate the complex dynamics of global capitalism. It’s important to consider how different sectors impact each other and society as a whole.

Don't Sleep On Silver

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 31 implied HN points • 14 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Commodities Market Trends Economic Analysis
  1. Silver is getting more attention from small investors because it's cheaper and offers good growth potential. Many see it as a practical investment to build wealth gradually.
  2. Recent market events, like the Silver Squeeze of 2021, have highlighted the influence of retail investors and could lead to a stronger focus on silver in future market shifts.
  3. The current high gold-to-silver ratio suggests that silver might be undervalued and ready for a price surge, especially as gold continues to rise. This could be a good time to invest in silver.

Atlas Won’t Shrug

Doomberg • 7754 implied HN points • 20 Feb 24
💰 Finance Energy Commodities Economics Markets Policy
  1. The human need for energy continues to grow despite various historical crises and catastrophes.
  2. Energy is not just an input into the economy but is actually the foundation of the economy itself.
  3. The idea of peak cheap oil being a crisis is challenged, with the belief that humanity would adapt swiftly to any temporary constraints in energy availability.

Gold Surpasses $2900 Per Ounce

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 14 implied HN points • 12 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Commodities Markets Economic Trends Monetary Policy
  1. Gold prices hit a new record, surpassing $2,900 per ounce, largely due to economic uncertainty and concerns about inflation. This has made gold an attractive option for many investors.
  2. Trade tensions between the US and China, along with tariffs on steel and aluminum, have pushed global capital towards gold as a safe investment. Countries like China are also building their gold reserves, which supports higher prices.
  3. Despite rising interest rates normally being bad for gold, the current economic landscape and investor fears about inflation are keeping demand strong. Many people see gold as a way to protect their wealth in uncertain times.
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Top Links 538 The rise of options. "Little pipes" and "little fires". THE banana skirt & the Apple-Nike connection.

Chartbook • 371 implied HN points • 22 Oct 24
💰 Finance Investments Market Trends Economic Policy Commodities Stock Options
  1. The rise of options trading is becoming a big trend in the market. It's important to understand how this affects investments.
  2. The phrase 'little pipes and little fires' suggests small things can have big impacts. It's a reminder that minor issues can escalate quickly.
  3. There’s an interesting connection between brands like Apple and Nike, showing how different industries can influence each other.

Hedging Inflation with Real Assets

In My Tribe • 622 implied HN points • 12 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investments Inflation Bonds Real Estate Commodities
  1. Investing in real assets like real estate, gold, and commodities can help protect against inflation. These assets are expected to appreciate more when inflation rises.
  2. Understanding profitability is key when investing. It combines rental income, appreciation, and interest rates to determine if an investment is worth it.
  3. Inflation-indexed bonds (like i-bonds) can be a good hedge but have limits on how much you can buy. They provide some safety against inflation, even though their performance can vary.

How to mine without mining

Irina Slav on energy • 1002 implied HN points • 24 Jan 24
💼 Business Mining Commodities Investment Environment Clean Energy
  1. Copper prices are forecasted to jump by 75% in 2025 due to energy transition and decline in the U.S. dollar.
  2. There are concerns about copper shortages, but traders often don't consider long-term impacts when trading commodities.
  3. Mining companies are facing challenges from resource nationalism and must find ways to mine sustainably to support the global transition to clean energy.

The cocoa question

Asian Century Stocks • 805 implied HN points • 10 Jan 24
💰 Finance Commodities Markets Stocks Economics Supply Chain
  1. Cocoa prices have spiked due to poor crops in West Africa, leading to challenges for chocolate producers.
  2. The tightness in the cocoa market is expected to persist, but historically, markets tend to return to balance within three years.
  3. High cocoa prices impact processors and chocolate manufacturers, who eventually pass on costs to consumers over approximately two years.

Precious metals investing - a beginner's guide

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 319 implied HN points • 11 Apr 24
💰 Finance Investing Commodities Market Trends Wealth Management
  1. Precious metals like gold and silver are valuable because they can hold their worth over time. People often invest in them as a safe way to protect against things like inflation and market changes.
  2. There are several easy ways to invest in precious metals, including buying physical bullion, using storage services, or buying shares in metal-focused ETFs and companies.
  3. There's a debate about whether gold or Bitcoin is a better store of value. Gold is physical and trusted by central banks, while Bitcoin is a digital asset with the potential for growth.

Trump’s Victory Has "Delayed The Fiscal Meltdown Scenario"...For Now

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 15 implied HN points • 22 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Monetary Policy Economic Analysis Commodities
  1. The stock market is doing well, but gold, silver, and Bitcoin are also gaining value. This shows that investors are already worried about future inflation.
  2. Gold and Bitcoin are acting as warning signs for money printing and potential economic trouble. They have seen significant growth compared to traditional U.S. Treasury bonds.
  3. There is a chance the Federal Reserve will have to resort to methods like quantitative easing again, which means they could start printing more money to stabilize the economy. This could lead to further increases in the value of sound money assets.

Why Are Gold And The Dollar Trading Together?

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 19 implied HN points • 10 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investment Commodities Market Trends Economic Policy Global Markets
  1. Gold and the US Dollar are sometimes moving together, which can indicate stress in the global market. This unusual connection raises questions about economic stability.
  2. Central banks influence both gold prices and the dollar's value. Higher interest rates can make the dollar seem more appealing, but many still look to gold to protect against inflation.
  3. Events like political chaos and wars can make people feel uncertain, leading them to invest in gold as a safe option during tough times.

What does a Commodity Trader do?

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 199 implied HN points • 07 Mar 24
💰 Finance Trading Commodities Market Analysis Risk management Investment Strategies
  1. Commodity traders buy and sell things like oil, gold, and wheat. They try to predict price changes based on global events to make profits.
  2. Their work impacts everyday prices for many products we use, helping producers manage risks and securing stable prices for the future.
  3. Traders pay attention to weather, politics, and market feelings to make informed decisions, using tools like futures contracts and diversification to manage risks.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.4% Below 2022 Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 04 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Economic Trends Commodities Real Estate Investment Strategies
  1. House prices adjusted for inflation are currently 1.4% lower than their peak in 2022. This means that while prices have gone up, they haven't reached their highest point when you factor in inflation.
  2. In nominal terms, house prices are at all-time highs, but the real value shows a different picture. This is important because it reflects the actual purchasing power of money over time.
  3. The price-to-rent ratio is 8.1% below its peak in 2022, suggesting that buying homes might be getting less attractive compared to renting in the current market.

Coking Coal: Its Over

Syncretica • 294 implied HN points • 14 May 23
💰 Finance Commodities Markets Investing Energy
  1. Predicted drop in coking coal prices due to Mongolia's coal imports displacing seaborne market imports.
  2. Issues with volume response from Australian, Canadian, and US coal producers to record high prices.
  3. Significant increase in Mongolian coking coal exports impacting market prices negatively.

Letter from Santiago

Things I Didn't Learn in School • 275 implied HN points • 18 Feb 23
💼 Business Commodities Economics Politics Investing Globalization
  1. The demand for lithium and copper is predicted to increase significantly due to the rise of electric vehicles.
  2. Chile, rich in copper and lithium, faces challenges with flat export volumes, political instability, and crime.
  3. The shift to electric vehicles will impact commodity prices, inflation, and stock values, influencing global economies.

The Bear Arrives

Diane Francis • 319 implied HN points • 12 May 22
💰 Finance Markets Investing Economics Geopolitics Commodities
  1. A bear market happens when stock prices drop by at least 20% over a year. This can make investing riskier during that time.
  2. Current global issues, like Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have disrupted markets and increased prices for essentials.
  3. China's strict COVID-19 lockdowns have hurt its economy, impacting supply chains and global trade.

Geopolitical decoupling and commodity prices

Klement on Investing • 6 implied HN points • 10 Jan 24
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics Commodities Trade Globalization Economic Sanctions
  1. Geopolitical tensions between the West, China, and Russia are leading to concerns about supply chain decoupling and rising commodity prices.
  2. Global supply chains are vulnerable, especially for critical raw materials like rare earth metals, impacting industrial production.
  3. An IMF research paper highlights the sensitivity of commodity prices to trade disruptions, showing potential surpluses and shortages in different regions.

What happens if China sneezes?

Klement on Investing • 1 implied HN point • 08 Feb 24
💰 Finance Global Markets Commodities Equities
  1. Commodity prices are sensitive to both Chinese and US macro developments, with oil reacting similarly to both.
  2. Global equities are less sensitive to Chinese shocks compared to US shocks, needing a larger Chinese shock to create a similar reaction.
  3. While the impact on global equities from the Chinese economy might be smaller than a US recession, a large enough shock from China could still derail global equity markets.

The Case for Buying WTI Crude Oil Futures & Selling Crude Oil ETFs (USO) Cash Covered Puts

The Tweetsift Report • 0 implied HN points • 02 Mar 23
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Commodities Markets Trading
  1. The price of WTI Crude oil & USO tends to fluctuate throughout the year, being higher at year-end and more volatile in the first quarter.
  2. Global economic state, geopolitical events, and technological advancements impact oil demand and prices.
  3. Considering patterns in oil trading, historical data, and global economic growth can guide investment decisions in oil futures.

Data Update 3 for 2021: Currencies, Commodities, Collectibles and Cryptos

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 28 Jan 21
💰 Finance Investments Commodities Collectibles
  1. Investments can be classified into four main types: assets, commodities, currencies, and collectibles. Each type has its own characteristics that affect how they are priced and valued.
  2. Investing is about buying assets based on their value, while trading focuses on buying low and selling high without worrying about value. They are different approaches but both can lead to profit.
  3. During economic crises, different markets behave unpredictably, often moving together. This can make diversification harder, meaning spreading investments across various assets may not always reduce risk.

The Golden Rule? Thoughts on gold as an investment

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 20 Apr 13
💰 Finance Investing Economics Market Analysis Commodities Risk management
  1. Gold doesn't generate cash flow on its own, making it hard to determine its true value. Many investors, including famous ones like Warren Buffett, prefer assets where they can estimate a value.
  2. Gold prices often rise with inflation and during times of crisis. People tend to buy gold when they worry about their financial safety, which shows its role as a protective asset.
  3. Using gold as insurance in your portfolio can be wise, especially during uncertain times. Even if it's priced high, it can help protect against major financial disasters.

Commodity companies and commodity dependent markets

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 30 Aug 09
💼 Business Commodities Valuation Investing Market Analysis Risk management Valuation Commodities Investing Finance Market Analysis
  1. The value of commodity companies directly depends on the prices of the commodities they deal with. When commodity prices rise or fall, the value of related companies changes too.
  2. There are two main ways to predict future commodity prices: looking at historical price cycles or analyzing supply and demand factors. A mix of both methods can lead to better forecasts.
  3. When valuing commodity companies, it's important to remain neutral about commodity price predictions. This way, investors can make their own judgments about the quality of the company's value and the market conditions.

Investing Update: Is Energy The New Leader

Spilled Coffee • 0 implied HN points • 16 Mar 24
💰 Finance Investing Markets Earnings Commodities Stocks
  1. The S&P 500 finished down for two consecutive weeks for the first time since October, showing a short-term cooling trend after many positive weeks.
  2. Energy has emerged as the top performing sector in 2024, with notable gains in oil and energy stocks outpacing the Nasdaq 100.
  3. Commercial real estate prices are rebounding and attracting investor interest, leading to substantial inflows into real estate-related investments, especially REITs.