The hottest Diplomacy Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top World Politics Topics
eugyppius: a plague chronicle • 281 implied HN points • 01 Mar 26
  1. A US-Israel strike reportedly killed Iran's Supreme Leader and several top commanders, and Iran has retaliated with ballistic missile and drone strikes against Israel, US bases, and allied Gulf states.
  2. Ursula von der Leyen says the European Commission will begin intensive monitoring after the weekend and has been calling Gulf and regional leaders, but the Commission has limited concrete geopolitical influence so those actions are largely symbolic.
  3. There is sharp criticism that EU leaders comment too much on global crises despite limited power, and that they should refrain from making performative statements.
Anima Mundi • 267 implied HN points • 22 Feb 26
  1. The old postwar security architecture is fraying: the New START treaty lapsed and American guarantees to Europe are being redefined, pushing Europe to rearm and raising nuclear and military risks.
  2. Several crises are converging — a possible US strike on Iran, the ongoing war in Ukraine, and China’s strategic positioning — which together increase global instability and encourage arms races and opportunistic aggression.
  3. Trust in institutions and assumptions is weakening — courts, executive rules, trade policy, and techno-optimism around AI are being treated as malleable, ending a ā€˜deferred’ way of managing security and the future and forcing hard choices about who pays and what gets sacrificed.
Diane Francis • 1338 implied HN points • 12 Aug 24
  1. Ukraine has launched a bold military operation by invading Russia with support from Western countries. Their goal was to show off their military strength and lower Russian morale.
  2. During the invasion, the Ukrainian army faced minimal resistance, with Russian guards fleeing and leaving their posts. This success showcased Ukraine's effective tactics.
  3. The U.S. responded positively to Ukraine's actions, reinforcing its support with additional military aid and confirming that this invasion wasn't seen as an escalation of the conflict.
Caitlin’s Newsletter • 2835 implied HN points • 21 Dec 25
  1. Israel is pushing Western governments and institutions to crack down on pro‑Palestine speech and protests, influencing laws and arrests that restrict civil liberties.
  2. When a foreign state works to erode civil liberties at home, citizens are justified in fighting back by targeting that state's influence and interests in their own countries.
  3. People should openly and unapologetically work to weaken support for Israel — exposing propaganda, making ties to its lobby politically costly, and campaigning to reduce its standing.
Caitlin’s Newsletter • 2314 implied HN points • 28 Dec 25
  1. The Israeli prime minister has been meeting President Trump unusually often this year. Their talks reportedly include planning more attacks on Iran, suggesting close US–Israel coordination toward military action.
  2. Western governments and authorities are cracking down hard on pro-Palestine speech and protests, using arrests and new laws to limit demonstrations. High-profile arrests and recent protest bans show free speech is being curtailed in places like the UK and Australia.
  3. Israel’s recognition of Somaliland and reported talks about resettling Gazans have sparked fears of forced deportation and ethnic cleansing. Serious allegations of abuse by Israeli forces and the widening use of US military strikes abroad add to growing international controversy.
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ChinaTalk • 844 implied HN points • 26 Jan 26
  1. They’re seeking deeply reported, analytically sharp pitches that go beyond headlines and are willing to pay and edit work from first-time or non-native-English writers.
  2. Priority topics include China’s escalation and economic-coercion options, energy and data-center build-out (and its ties to AI), China’s global tech and infrastructure influence, scientific and biotech progress, and Taiwan’s democratization.
  3. Reporters with local language skills, on-the-ground access, archival finds, or ideas for novel formats (interactive pieces or economic modeling) are especially encouraged and can earn higher pay.
Diane Francis • 999 implied HN points • 15 Aug 24
  1. Turkey is a growing economy that plays an important role in world politics. It has good relations with many countries, even those that usually clash.
  2. The Turkish president is a skilled leader who knows how to handle complex international issues. His style of governance raises some concerns, but he is not seen as a dictator.
  3. Turkey's neutrality in global conflicts helps create stability. It balances relationships with major powers like the West, Russia, and China.
Phillips’s Newsletter • 374 implied HN points • 22 Feb 26
  1. Ukraine says it liberated about 300 square kilometres in the south, but that may mostly be clearing small Russian infiltration units rather than one big counterattack, and maps often lag real gains.
  2. US‑brokered talks look increasingly performative — negotiators walked out after a short time, Ukrainians feel pressured to cede land, and European leaders are pushing for a more serious, independent role.
  3. Ukraine used FP‑5 Flamingo cruise missiles to strike deep inside Russia at a major missile factory, showing growing long‑range strike ability and a focus on degrading Russian missile production rather than relying only on scarce air defenses.
Glenn’s Substack • 739 implied HN points • 22 Aug 24
  1. NATO's involvement in the war may blur the lines between a proxy war and direct conflict, raising concerns about escalation.
  2. Russia has been cautious in its response to NATO actions, as retaliating could lead to a larger global conflict.
  3. The recent invasion of Kursk by Ukraine and NATO has led to significant Ukrainian casualties and weakened defensive positions, with NATO's role now more apparent.
Glenn’s Substack • 519 implied HN points • 30 Aug 24
  1. Both Israel and Ukraine are in conflicts they can't win and are escalating their actions instead of seeking peace. This makes the situation more dangerous.
  2. The countries are trying to involve the US more deeply in their wars, hoping that American support will change their fortunes.
  3. There is a lack of serious discussions or diplomatic efforts to address the escalating tensions, which could lead to a wider conflict.
Glenn’s Substack • 539 implied HN points • 29 Aug 24
  1. The situation is tense between NATO and Russia, with both sides pretending not to be in a direct conflict. This makes it seem like a war is already taking place without formal recognition.
  2. Recent attacks on Russian territory and nuclear plants are pushing the situation closer to nuclear war. This escalation raises serious concerns about global safety.
  3. The American government's silence on these actions raises questions about their real intentions and strategy in the region. It makes people wonder how they plan to address these conflicts.
Aaron Mate • 196 implied HN points • 02 Mar 26
  1. The US and Israel launched "Operation Epic Fury" to pursue regime change in Iran, carrying out assassinations and bombings that caused heavy civilian casualties and quickly widened the fighting across the region.
  2. What looked like diplomacy was largely a cover, as US negotiators pretended to seek a deal while preparing military strikes and undermining a possible agreement.
  3. The official reasons for war — that Iran was on the brink of a nuclear weapon or an imminent missile threat — were exaggerated or false, suggesting the action is ideologically driven and risks a catastrophic, open-ended conflict.
Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 565 implied HN points • 06 Feb 26
  1. Trump publicly warned Iran the U.S. was "locked and loaded" if the regime shot protesters, but no U.S. strike followed the subsequent deadly crackdown.
  2. Officials say a key practical reason for not striking is that U.S. missile defense and strike resources are depleted, which limits options for rapid retaliation.
  3. Instead of punishing the regime for the massacre, U.S. envoys are meeting with Iranian officials to negotiate about the nuclear program and support for terrorism rather than the protesters' fate.
Diane Francis • 1218 implied HN points • 01 Aug 24
  1. China has been cheating in trade by stealing ideas and lying about its deals. This has been hurting businesses and countries that rely on China.
  2. NATO has accused China of supporting Russia by giving them supplies, even after China promised not to. This shows that China can't be trusted in international agreements.
  3. China is also involved in the drug trade, providing materials to Mexican cartels. Despite their denials, evidence shows they continue to help with drug problems.
Letters from an American • 30 implied HN points • 14 Mar 26
  1. The administration temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian oil to try to ease soaring oil prices, a move that critics say directly benefits Russia and drew pushback from G7 allies.
  2. The U.S. military campaign against Iran is expanding without a clear political goal and has mixed messaging from leaders. That approach risks wider disruption, including closure of the Strait of Hormuz and increasing civilian casualties.
  3. Key decisions show poor preparation and weakened oversight: negotiators lacked technical expertise, offices that limited civilian harm were slashed, and internal dissent and aggressive rhetoric are raising legal and ethical concerns about how the war is being run.
Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 913 implied HN points • 19 Jan 26
  1. His muscular, unilateral foreign policy has produced big wins, like strikes on Iran’s nuclear program, pressure that helped free hostages, and the raid that captured Venezuela’s leader.
  2. His push to acquire Greenland and petulant diplomacy have created a diplomatic crisis with allies, risking immediate political fallout.
  3. Alienating allies could turn those victories into strategic liabilities, because long-term security often depends on sustained cooperation with partners.
Chartbook • 515 implied HN points • 30 Jan 26
  1. The India–EU trade agreement is being touted as significant, but it has not been ratified yet, so its actual impact remains uncertain.
  2. Mexico is facing slow economic growth, pointing to persistent structural or policy challenges that could limit near-term progress.
  3. The conversation ties Debord’s idea of the 'spectacle' to MLK’s injunction to 'keep moving,' blending a cultural critique with a call for continued action and engagement.
Thinking about... • 828 implied HN points • 11 Jan 26
  1. A possessive, aggressive approach to friends destroys trust and ends helpful cooperation.
  2. Existing alliances and agreements already give access and security when needed; asking and cooperating works far better than trying to seize things.
  3. Trying to claim or bully allied territory can break alliances, weaken national security, and hand advantage to rival powers.
Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 412 implied HN points • 09 Feb 26
  1. Jimmy Lai, a 78-year-old pro-democracy publisher, was sentenced to 20 years under Hong Kong’s national security law, showing how the law can be used to target journalists.
  2. The heavy sentence underscores the erosion of Hong Kong’s promised autonomy under ā€œone country, two systemsā€ and represents a major blow to press freedom.
  3. Sustained pressure from Western governments could still secure his release and may be necessary to prevent him from dying in prison, so international advocacy remains crucial.
Comment is Freed • 140 implied HN points • 28 Feb 26
  1. The US and Israel have launched strikes with the stated goal of regime change, and Iran now sees its survival as threatened so it has struck back across the region.
  2. Iran’s government is internally weak — corrupt, economically strained, and it recently crushed large protests — but it still relies on well-organized, ruthless forces like the revolutionary guard.
  3. Those dynamics raise the risk of a wider regional war as Iran tries to create chaos to raise the political stakes for the US, yet it remains unclear whether the strikes will actually topple the regime.
eugyppius: a plague chronicle • 122 implied HN points • 03 Mar 26
  1. Don't rush to publish hot takes; it's better to be cautious and aim for analysis that will age well rather than quick, strident opinions you might regret.
  2. Public debate is dominated by predictable tribes that cling to single narratives and defend them no matter what, which makes honest assessment harder.
  3. Avoid binary thinking and the just-world fallacy; multiple things can be true at once and outcomes rarely boil down to total catastrophe or total success.
Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 347 implied HN points • 10 Feb 26
  1. Canada is moving to strengthen economic ties with China as part of a strategy to reduce dependence on the United States.
  2. Concrete steps include allowing a limited number of Chinese-made electric vehicles and removing tariffs on Canadian canola to boost exports.
  3. Donald Trump publicly attacked the arrangement, calling it a disaster and suggesting the U.S. views Canada’s friendlier trade posture toward China as part of the broader U.S.–China confrontation.
Simplicius's Garden of Knowledge • 10791 implied HN points • 29 Jan 24
  1. US troops suffered fatalities in strikes, highlighting escalation tensions.
  2. Confusion arises about the location of the troop fatalities, raising questions about US involvement in the region.
  3. Potential for a major conflict or withdrawal in the Middle East, with significant implications for the US and global economy.
Diane Francis • 719 implied HN points • 08 Aug 24
  1. There is concern that a regional war in the Middle East is actually already happening. Israel's actions have sparked wider conflict and retaliation is expected.
  2. The situation is escalating with more U.S. military presence and attacks on American soldiers in Iraq. Countries are advising their citizens to leave the area as tensions rise.
  3. Many people are leaving Israel, with reports saying nearly half a million have departed. This ongoing conflict has become more complex than just battles in Gaza and Lebanon.
Pekingnology • 124 implied HN points • 04 Mar 26
  1. China’s response to the U.S. and Israeli strikes was surprisingly mild and not rapid; Beijing rarely used the word "condemn" and only did so clearly after Khamenei’s killing and in response to civilian casualties.
  2. China repeatedly expressed concern, called for an immediate stop to military actions, urged respect for sovereignty and de‑escalation, and pursued diplomatic moves like a UN Security Council meeting and phone calls between Wang Yi and other foreign ministers.
  3. Beijing also condemned attacks on Gulf countries and strikes on civilians, but its overall wording and timing were more restrained than in some past cases (for example, a much stronger, quicker condemnation of an earlier U.S. attack on Venezuela), showing selective intensity.
Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 431 implied HN points • 03 Feb 26
  1. Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran’s shah, is being looked at by some as a possible transitional leader if the regime falters, but he’s a complicated and imperfect figure.
  2. The U.S. is both threatening military action against Iran and pursuing last-ditch diplomacy, demanding steep concessions like ending nuclear and missile programs and stopping support for proxy groups.
  3. The news cycle is volatile: domestic politics face a partial government shutdown and high-profile congressional/legal fights over the Epstein files, while internationally big stories include SpaceX buying xAI, deadly Russian strikes in Ukraine, and the Rafah crossing reopening in Gaza.
Diane Francis • 919 implied HN points • 29 Jul 24
  1. Ukraine has been successful in pushing back Russian forces, especially around the city of Kharkiv and in Crimea. Their clever use of technology, like drones, has helped them gain the upper hand.
  2. Western countries are increasing their military and financial support to Ukraine as they prepare for future challenges. They are also allowing Ukraine to strike military targets within Russia.
  3. The situation in Crimea is vital for Ukraine, as weakening Russia's stronghold there can put pressure on their military and economic resources, impacting Putin's control.
The Chris Hedges Report • 134 implied HN points • 24 Feb 26
  1. U.S. foreign policy that prioritizes short-term extraction and personal gain over alliances and norms pushes other countries to "de-risk" and build alternatives, which will shrink American influence, wealth, and security over time.
  2. A leadership style that demands flattery, sidelines experienced diplomats, and weaponizes economic tools erodes soft power and international trust, making the U.S. an unreliable partner.
  3. The likely result is a more fragmented, competitive, and unstable world order — with Europe and others acting more independently, weaker global cooperation on climate and health, and greater space for authoritarian powers to grow.
Caitlin’s Newsletter • 1001 implied HN points • 04 Jan 26
  1. The Monroe Doctrine is presented as a hypocritical justification for US intervention in Latin America.
  2. A painting of Nicolas Maduro is used to humanize him and to push back against narratives that justify external pressure on Venezuela.
  3. The newsletter is reader-supported and asks for subscriptions or donations, while freely allowing reuse and republication of its content.
ChinaTalk • 800 implied HN points • 07 Jan 26
  1. China condemned the US action as a breach of international law and framed it as American hegemony, sparking a debate at home about whether the raid offers a template or warning for Taiwan. Some commentators see it as a quick‑strike model for forcing faits accomplis, while others insist the Venezuela case is not analogous to cross‑strait issues.
  2. The operation exposed weaknesses in Venezuela’s air defenses that used Chinese equipment, prompting Taiwanese observers to mock Chinese radar and argue US forces can overwhelm systems tied to Chinese arms. Analysts caution, however, that Venezuela lacked China’s most advanced systems and suffered from mixed sourcing and maintenance problems, so the failure may not prove broad Chinese inferiority.
  3. Beijing has real economic stakes in Venezuela — modest oil flows plus roughly $13–15 billion in loans — and the biggest risk is financial and political, not immediate military loss. A US‑aligned government in Caracas could reprioritize creditors or restrict Chinese firms, forcing China to absorb losses or renegotiate access to assets.
Phillips’s Newsletter • 291 implied HN points • 15 Feb 26
  1. Recent data suggest Russia lost more troops than it could replace in Dec 2025–Jan 2026, creating roughly a 25% shortfall; if that trend holds or Ukraine raises the pressure, Russian advances could stall.
  2. A major Western speech at Munich omitted any mention of Russia or Ukraine and emphasized seeking a negotiated end acceptable to Moscow, highlighting how many European leaders still rely on US support and have not built a strong, independent European defence pillar.
  3. A senior Ukrainian strategist says durable peace is impossible while Putin sets the terms, so Ukraine should aim for a long, stable positional stalemate that blocks Russian gains, minimizes rear terror, and increases pressure on the Kremlin.
Letters from an American • 29 implied HN points • 12 Mar 26
  1. President Trump says the war with Iran is nearly over, but Iran is resisting, rejecting ceasefires, and shows no sign of accepting an immediate end.
  2. Iran’s mining of the Strait of Hormuz and strikes on oil infrastructure have raised global energy prices and disrupted shipping and supply chains for many industrial goods.
  3. The conflict is already costly and chaotic — with U.S. casualties, heavy munitions use, likely civilian harm from a school strike, and no clear U.S. endgame as allies disagree on how long to fight.
Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 102 implied HN points • 28 Feb 26
  1. The U.S. and Israel carried out joint air strikes on multiple Iranian military sites, and initial reports claim Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, has been killed.
  2. Iran retaliated with strikes targeting Israel and other sites across the Middle East, and Israeli authorities have instructed residents to stay in bomb shelters.
  3. The crisis risks major regional escalation and global consequences, and experts are convening live to analyze how events may unfold.
Caitlin’s Newsletter • 1322 implied HN points • 18 Dec 25
  1. Trump is escalating toward open confrontation with Venezuela by ordering a total blockade and targeting oil tankers, which risks direct military clashes.
  2. The administration has labeled fentanyl a ā€œweapon of mass destructionā€ and accused Venezuela despite evidence the country doesn’t produce it, repeating the tactic of using dubious pretexts for intervention.
  3. U.S. foreign policy and much of the media treat unilateral sanctions and regime‑change rhetoric as acceptable, empowering warmongers and crowding out peaceful options like neutrality.
Unreported Truths • 30 implied HN points • 16 Mar 26
  1. Iran already has enough enriched uranium that it could be turned into a nuclear weapon, and the size and effects of such a bomb would be uncertain but potentially catastrophic.
  2. Finding and seizing those uranium stores would be very hard and dangerous because enriched uranium is hard to detect and is likely kept in fortified or underground sites that would require a large, risky special-forces operation.
  3. This creates a brutal choice: keeping pressure and control might stop Iran from finishing a bomb but risks wider conflict and economic damage like a closed Strait of Hormuz, while easing off would likely let Iran build a weapon, so there’s no easy, risk-free option.
Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 561 implied HN points • 22 Jan 26
  1. Elites at Davos claim globalization is retreating, but broader trends suggest it's still accelerating. Outside of elite circles, countries and markets keep integrating and trading more.
  2. Protectionist moves can have unintended effects, pushing other countries to open their markets instead. For example, U.S. tariffs helped nudge Canada to allow Chinese-made electric cars.
  3. Wider access to foreign goods like cheaper electric cars brings clear consumer benefits while security worries are real but likely limited and manageable. Local bans or safeguards can address specific risks without stopping overall trade gains.
Pekingnology • 75 implied HN points • 08 Mar 26
  1. China has signaled it welcomes and expects President Trump’s upcoming visit and wants both sides to make thorough preparations.
  2. Wang Yi urged mutual respect, managing differences, and removing unnecessary distractions so the two countries can pursue win‑win cooperation and keep relations stable.
  3. There are concerns that summit planning — particularly on the U.S. side — is inadequate, which worries Beijing and could undermine the visit’s outcomes.
God's Spies by Thomas Neuburger • 90 implied HN points • 06 Mar 26
  1. Netanyahu appears to have people close to or inside the U.S. administration who pass back information about possible communications with Iran. He used that intel to ask the White House directly whether talks were happening.
  2. Figures close to Trump, especially Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, are in frequent contact with Israeli leaders, creating informal channels that could relay sensitive messages. Those personal ties make it easier for information to flow outside official lines.
  3. Israeli officials fear the U.S. might seek a ceasefire before Israel achieves its goals, and there is rising talk that American forces could be drawn in as the conflict escalates. That concern drives rapid coordination and monitoring of U.S. moves.
Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 533 implied HN points • 20 Jan 26
  1. The president’s push to claim Greenland has alarmed European leaders and could seriously damage U.S.–Europe relations and trade ties.
  2. Smuggled Starlink terminals are helping Iranian protesters bypass internet shutdowns and letting images and videos of the crackdown reach the world.
  3. The spread of legal sports betting has hurt sports and fans by fueling addiction, debt, and game-rigging scandals, and its cultural damage is hard to reverse.
Pekingnology • 49 implied HN points • 10 Mar 26
  1. The seminar will decode China’s 2026 Two Sessions, focusing on the Government Work Report and the 15th Five-Year Plan to clarify Beijing’s policy priorities and strategic direction.
  2. It’s an English-language lunch briefing in Beijing on March 17 aimed at multinational executives, international organization representatives, and diplomats, and it requires paid registration.
  3. A panel of former officials and trade experts will give a forward-looking assessment of macro targets, industrial upgrading, technological innovation, high‑standard opening-up, and what these developments mean for business and diplomacy.