The hottest Diplomacy Substack posts right now

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Thinking about the Long Haul

John’s Substack • 7 implied HN points • 24 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy
  1. A two-hour interview with a former Indonesian trade minister explored a wide range of current global conflicts and where they might lead.
  2. This was the third long conversation between them and featured a friendly, engaged back-and-forth.
  3. The overall assessment was bleak, offering a dark outlook on the direction of world affairs in the years ahead.

Weekend Update #176: Ukraine Is Showing Its Value, Particularly For Europe

Phillips’s Newsletter • 368 implied HN points • 15 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy
  1. Ukraine has become a fast-growing military tech hub, producing cost-effective anti-drone systems, mid-range strike drones, and other innovations that can quickly help allies and should be central to Europe’s defense future.
  2. Recent U.S. moves—downplaying Russia’s role in arming Iran and easing oil sanctions—have effectively boosted Russian revenue and helped Moscow project power that endangers U.S. and allied forces.
  3. Hungary’s seizure of Ukrainian gold and its ties to Putin show that some European states are actively undermining Ukraine and European unity, underscoring the need for Europe to back Ukraine and fix its political structures.

Marco Rubio’s Minor Diplomatic Miracle

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 2559 implied HN points • 16 Feb 26
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy
  1. He gave a blunt, high-stakes critique of European complacency and questioned long-standing assumptions about the continent’s security.
  2. Even while challenging those sacred cows, he won over senior European leaders and received a standing ovation at the Munich Security Conference.
  3. The speech acted like an intervention — a stern warning that Europe risks squandering its security if it doesn’t change course.

The Middle East Is Ready for the Abraham Accords 2.0

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 324 implied HN points • 12 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy
  1. Iran is growing regionally isolated and its proxy forces like Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Hamas are weakened or sidelined.
  2. That isolation gives the United States and Gulf Arab states a rare strategic opening to deepen security cooperation and counter shared threats.
  3. The Abraham Accords can be upgraded from symbolic normalization into a practical, integrated security architecture linking Israel and the Gulf.

Trump’s Endgame

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 848 implied HN points • 04 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Diplomacy
  1. The conflict will likely end when Trump personally convinces Netanyahu to agree to a ceasefire, with Trump’s phone call framed as the decisive moment.
  2. U.S. and Israeli forces are operating more closely than ever as a tightly integrated unit, but the underlying balance of power hasn’t really changed since the June 2025 joint operation against Iran ended abruptly.
  3. Any U.S. deal with Iran should demand nuclear disarmament, elimination of its missiles, and an end to proxy financing up front.
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Going to War, Again, for Israel

The Chris Hedges Report • 920 implied HN points • 28 Feb 26
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy
  1. The United States is being pulled into a war that mainly serves Israeli goals, not American interests, risking American lives and flouting international norms.
  2. Israel and its lobby have huge influence over U.S. politics, using money, trips, and pressure to secure massive military aid and political support.
  3. The conflict will be costly and prolonged, causing many deaths, spiking oil prices, regional chaos and likely long-term failure like past regime-change wars.

Netanyahu Visits Trump for the Seventh Time Amid More Threats of a U.S. Attack on Iran

Glenn Greenwald • 3004 implied HN points • 10 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Diplomacy
  1. Netanyahu has unusually close access to Trump and is visiting to press him for much tougher demands on Iran, including limits (like giving up ballistic missiles) and even regime-change goals that Iran is unlikely to accept.
  2. Trump has publicly threatened military force against Iran while also saying he prefers a deal to avoid war, and past patterns and coordinated leaks raise concern that negotiations can be used to disguise or prepare strikes.
  3. The central issue is whether the U.S. will base policy on its own national interests or be drawn into a costly war that primarily serves Israeli objectives, with critics arguing the U.S. should avoid fighting Israel’s fights for it.

If NATO Dies, Do We Really Have to Mourn?

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 6802 implied HN points • 14 Jan 26
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy
  1. Donald Trump's moves around Greenland are being seen as a direct threat to NATO and could hasten the alliance's collapse.
  2. Since the Soviet Union fell, NATO has repeatedly expanded its mission and pushed risky policies to justify its continued existence, often at high cost.
  3. Some argue that NATO outlived its original purpose and that its demise might not be tragic, given how it became self-justifying and aggressive.

Iran: Competing War Narratives and the Euro Spat

eugyppius: a plague chronicle • 96 implied HN points • 19 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy
  1. The war is escalating and looks bad from the American perspective, with recent Israeli strikes and strong Iranian retaliations suggesting the campaign is not going well.
  2. Attacks have begun targeting energy infrastructure — including a damaging strike on Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG hub — raising the real risk of a severe global energy crisis if Gulf facilities or the Strait of Hormuz become contested.
  3. Three competing narratives have emerged in Western media, and a public spat between Trump and NATO allies over reopening the Strait of Hormuz highlights deep diplomatic divisions in how to respond.

Trump Keeps His Promise to Iran—and Takes a Big Gamble

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 853 implied HN points • 28 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Diplomacy
  1. The U.S. and Israel launched strikes targeting Iran’s nuclear sites and top leaders, with reports that the supreme leader’s compound and senior commanders were hit.
  2. The operation is a major escalation and a high‑stakes gamble that could reshape the entire Middle East.
  3. Trump openly urged Iranians to rise up and seize their government, and Iran’s retaliatory strikes on Israeli and U.S. bases in the Gulf have raised the risk of a wider conflict.

The Island at the Heart of Iran’s War Machine

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 370 implied HN points • 09 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy
  1. Kharg Island is the centerpiece of Iran's energy industry and handles roughly 80–90% of the country's crude oil exports.
  2. Sitting in the northern Persian Gulf just 16 miles off Iran's coast, the island is a strategic chokepoint that has been contested for centuries.
  3. Because of its outsized role in Iran's oil exports, U.S. and Israeli planners are debating whether to incapacitate or seize the island, so its fate could be decisive in a conflict with Iran.

I support this current thing

Wrong Side of History • 446 implied HN points • 28 Feb 26
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy
  1. The UK and other Western countries have played a decisive and highly visible role in supporting Ukraine, and that political leadership helped shape Ukrainian strategy and resolve.
  2. Political allegiances are shifting across Europe and Britain, with new right-wing parties gaining ground, older parties being outflanked, and centrists sometimes more worried about the far-left than the far-right.
  3. Cultural and intellectual debates are unsettled: some academic fields are criticized for avoiding sensitive social realities, while conservative media and lifestyle projects are successfully repackaging culture to attract new audiences.

Can Israel & the U.S. Sustain Iran's Military Power? (w/ Alastair Crooke) | The Chris Hedges Report

The Chris Hedges Report • 339 implied HN points • 07 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy
  1. Iran has strong, resilient military capabilities. It has large missile stocks, uses older missiles and drones to exhaust interceptors, and has damaged expensive radar and surveillance systems while keeping hypersonic and siloed launch options for a long war.
  2. The U.S. and Israel miscalculated and overreached. Their strikes and the assassination of Iranian leaders have provoked broad regional backlash and revealed shortages in intercept capacity and contingency planning.
  3. The conflict is reshaping the region and global markets. Gulf security and the Strait of Hormuz are at risk, energy and investment flows are shifting away from Gulf hubs, and political instability is rising in Bahrain, Iraq, Israel and for Palestinians.

The Coalition That Was Built After the Bombs Fell

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 556 implied HN points • 04 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy
  1. Operation Epic Fury is creating a new way for regional powers to coordinate responses to Iranian attacks.
  2. During the First Gulf War, the United States spent months building a broad international coalition and prioritized Arab participation while keeping Israel out of direct action.
  3. Israel once chose restraint—refraining from retaliation even when targeted—to avoid breaking a fragile coalition, showing how political considerations can shape military responses.

The Rot Is Real And There Is More To It

Phillips’s Newsletter • 637 implied HN points • 06 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Diplomacy
  1. Endemic corruption and the replacement of competent officers with loyalists and fanatics have hollowed out decision-making, morale, and expertise across the US military and diplomatic corps.
  2. The Iran bombing has exposed unprecedented operational failures — including large friendly‑fire losses, poor industrial/logistical preparation, and a confused articulation of strategic goals despite months of warning.
  3. Those failures carry dangerous consequences: likely catastrophic civilian harm (including a struck girls' school), the US being used to advance other countries' interests, and serious damage to alliance diplomacy and credibility.

Why Not to Mourn NATO, Volume II: The Bush-Putin Files

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 5000 implied HN points • 15 Jan 26
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy
  1. Declassified Bush–Putin transcripts show the U.S. pushed NATO expansion despite Russian warnings that adding countries like Ukraine would create long-term confrontation and instability.
  2. Expanding NATO while developing new offensive and defensive systems deepened mutual distrust and helped spark an arms race that alarmed Russian leaders.
  3. Repeated U.S. choices to prioritize enlargement over arms-control talks (like START II) meant missed chances to reduce tensions and preserve post‑9/11 cooperation.

NZNet Digest: How Trump's war is backfiring

Nonzero Newsletter • 338 implied HN points • 12 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy
  1. Trump’s war is backfiring: it’s fueling antisemitism at home and strengthening hardline elements in Iran, since removing leaders has empowered more risk‑taking military figures.
  2. Ideologically driven US policy is undercutting practical cooperation and political support — initiatives like the Shield of the Americas exclude key partners, and the war has eroded bipartisan backing for Israel.
  3. War has unpredictable, long‑lasting consequences: past interventions helped spawn groups like ISIS, and those chain reactions can lead to terrorism and instability years later.

Your Primer on Greenland.

Breaking the News • 3437 implied HN points • 19 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Diplomacy
  1. The push to seize Greenland stems from one person’s psychological desire for ownership rather than from rational national-interest reasons.
  2. The U.S. would get little or nothing and likely face net negative outcomes: military access already exists, mining is impractical now, and governing Greenland would be hugely costly and difficult.
  3. Greenlanders and the U.S.’s allies strongly oppose a takeover, and Greenland is much smaller, far more remote, and sparsely populated than many people realize.

Who Will Rule Iran? Plus. . .

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 449 implied HN points • 05 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy
  1. A weakened Iranian regime is likely to cling to power unless an organized force removes it, and Kurdish fighters are emerging as a pivotal force that could either topple the government or plunge the country into civil war.
  2. Widespread internet outages and the sidelining of U.S. broadcasting tools have left Iranian dissidents fragmented and made it much harder for outside actors to rally or inform domestic opposition.
  3. The conflict is already reshaping the region and global politics: U.S. strikes have degraded Iranian forces, NATO has acted to intercept missiles, and the war is producing wide political, security, and economic ripple effects.

A War the U.S. Didn’t Need

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 222 implied HN points • 11 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy
  1. This war was a choice, not a necessity, and could have been avoided. It did not have to be fought to protect U.S. interests.
  2. There was little clear evidence of an immediate Iranian threat, and the U.S. had other options like tougher sanctions and renewed diplomacy.
  3. The costs now and in the future are likely to far outweigh any benefits, making the decision to go to war ill-advised.

How the Iranian Regime Blew It

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 496 implied HN points • 04 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy
  1. The Islamic Republic set out in 1979 to remake the Middle East by defeating Zionism, pushing out the United States, and establishing Tehran’s hegemony.
  2. The post–October 7, 2023 wars produced outcomes largely opposite to those aims, weakening rather than eliminating Israeli and U.S. influence.
  3. Iran’s decisions and actions since those wars have further damaged its regional standing, reducing Tehran’s influence instead of expanding it.

Niall Ferguson: How Trump Won Davos

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 3408 implied HN points • 23 Jan 26
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy
  1. Donald Trump completely dominated Davos, drawing most of the attention and overshadowing other participants.
  2. The forum’s theme of dialogue clashed with his one-way, monologue-style approach, making interactions feel one-sided.
  3. Many in Europe portrayed the event as a win after persuading him to de-escalate his demand that the U.S. acquire Greenland.

The Increase in Ukrainian Casualties

Glenn’s Substack • 1378 implied HN points • 04 Sep 24
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy
  1. Ukrainian military losses are rising, which is common as wars reach their final stages. When a side is losing, they often struggle with resources, morale, and communication.
  2. The situation in Ukraine is worsening with fewer troops and equipment. As their frontlines weaken, many soldiers are defecting or surrendering, leading to a chaotic military environment.
  3. NATO faces difficult choices in response to the war. There's growing pressure to either negotiate peace or increase involvement, while the risk of a direct conflict with Russia looms large.

Weekend Update #175: The Week In Which Ukraine Stood Up To Help The USA And The USA Stood Up To Help Russia

Phillips’s Newsletter • 363 implied HN points • 08 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy
  1. Ukraine has developed cheap, effective ways to shoot down attack drones and quickly stepped in to help the US and other allies who lacked that capability.
  2. Recent US decisions around the Iran conflict — defending Russian actions, easing oil restrictions, and expending large amounts of advanced air-defense missiles — have effectively aided Russia politically and economically while depleting US and allied stocks.
  3. On the ground, Ukraine made net territorial gains in February and is inflicting high Russian personnel losses, suggesting their drone-heavy, lower-manpower strategy is producing results.

Germany and the EU Abandon Reason and Risk Collapse

Glenn’s Substack • 839 implied HN points • 09 Sep 24
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy
  1. Germany and the EU need to rethink their approach to the Ukraine crisis or they might end up in serious trouble together. Changes are necessary to avoid breaking apart.
  2. Some experts believe NATO made mistakes that helped to spark the Ukraine war and that these mistakes are causing more issues for Europe now.
  3. There's growing concern about political violence and less freedom of speech in Germany. New political movements are also rising, which the current government does not approve of.

Iran's Inalienable Right to Enrich

Gordian Knot News • 117 implied HN points • 13 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy
  1. The NPT affirms every party’s right to develop peaceful nuclear energy, but that right is limited by commitments not to pursue or acquire nuclear weapons and to accept full IAEA inspections.
  2. The treaty itself is vague on enforcement, so breaches can lead to escalating measures—sanctions first and potentially force if other responses fail.
  3. The United States has undercut the treaty’s promise of the “fullest possible exchange” by restricting peaceful nuclear cooperation, such as blocking exports of reactors like the Korean APR1400.

The Justifications For War With Iran Keep Changing

Caitlin’s Newsletter • 1802 implied HN points • 29 Jan 26
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy
  1. The public reasons for attacking Iran keep shifting — first nukes, then missiles, then protesters — which makes it look like war is the goal and excuses are being invented.
  2. Military buildups and threats are being used to pressure Iran to give up key defenses, which would leave it weakened and more subject to US and Israeli demands rather than actually solve humanitarian or nuclear problems.
  3. This pattern, similar to how the US has justified action against other oil-rich countries, shows that changing pretexts are used to manufacture consent for intervention, and rising tensions often come with more deception.

TGIF: Bored of Peace

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 2007 implied HN points • 23 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Diplomacy
  1. President Trump has launched a U.S.-led “Board of Peace” pitched as an alternative to the United Nations, but its purpose, powers, and structure remain vague.
  2. Headlines that a permanent seat would cost $1 billion sparked outrage, and the White House’s reply reframed it as a vague “demonstration of commitment,” making the setup look like pay-to-play membership.
  3. Many see the move as more spectacle and branding than a serious diplomatic institution, with skepticism about replacing established bodies like the UN or NATO.

Making it up as they go along

Comment is Freed • 188 implied HN points • 08 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy
  1. Military strikes and public calls for regime change have escalated the conflict, but there’s no clear plan or willingness to commit forces to actually topple the government, which raises the risk of a long, unpopular war.
  2. The regime is fragile because of repression, corruption, mismanagement, sanctions and a failing economy, so many people want change even as the state struggles to govern effectively.
  3. History shows that degrading a government’s military or leadership doesn’t quickly produce collapse; the regime still has guns and leadership capacity, so fighting for survival is likely to be prolonged and unpredictable.

DWN Interview with Harald Kujat: Ukraine Support Without Peace Strategy

Glenn’s Substack • 659 implied HN points • 08 Sep 24
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy
  1. Neither Ukraine nor Russia can truly win the war. Both sides are unlikely to achieve their political goals, and ongoing support from the West may not change the military balance.
  2. Ukraine's recent offensive into Russian territory may turn out to be a risky move rather than a game-changer. The action could lead to greater military challenges as Ukraine stretches its resources thin.
  3. A peaceful resolution to the conflict seems increasingly distant. Both sides have strong preconditions for negotiations, and external factors like upcoming U.S. elections could impact the situation further.

Trump’s Rules of War

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 255 implied HN points • 04 Mar 26
🌐 International Diplomacy
  1. He set clear rules for using U.S. military power — no ground troops, no nation‑building, and quick “one‑and‑done” strikes.
  2. In the current Iran confrontation he’s breaking those rules, moving away from brief strikes toward a potentially multi‑week campaign.
  3. His approach to war is changeable: in recent days he has broken some rules, kept others, and abandoned a long American taboo, showing his tactics shift with circumstances.

Agreeing with Piers on Iran

John’s Substack • 10 implied HN points • 22 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy
  1. Two commentators who normally disagree are in close agreement about the current state of the Iran war and where it seems to be heading.
  2. A public discussion highlighted two contrasting voices: a sharp Middle East expert and a government-aligned spokesperson who predicts a decisive victory for Israel and the US.
  3. The exchange underscores a split in perspectives — skeptical observers versus official optimism — leaving the ultimate outcome uncertain.

The Dangerous Obsession with Territory in a War of Attrition

Glenn’s Substack • 1418 implied HN points • 20 Aug 24
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy
  1. In a war of attrition, the goal is to wear down the enemy, not just take land. Taking territory requires a lot of resources and can be costly.
  2. Territorial gains often get celebrated, but they’re not always strategic. Advancing too far can harm supply lines and weaken defenses.
  3. There's pressure in the West to support any gains by Ukraine, which complicates discussions about effective strategies. Sometimes, focusing on PR can overshadow the real military needs.

There Is A Donroe Doctrine

Phillips’s Newsletter • 208 implied HN points • 09 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy
  1. The US and Israeli air campaign has severely degraded Iranian air defenses, missile and drone capabilities, and targeted Iranian leaders, but it’s not clear what political or military end state those strikes are meant to achieve.
  2. Public messaging from US leadership is contradictory—claims of victory and surrender are mixed with admissions the war is ongoing—so it’s hard to tell whether the chaos is genuine or deliberate misdirection.
  3. This mix of coercive strikes and noisy signaling mirrors what was done in Venezuela and will be a litmus test in Iran for whether this emerging US doctrine actually achieves its strategic aims.

The Iran Strikes—and the War to Come

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 292 implied HN points • 01 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy
  1. A joint U.S.-Israel strike killed Iran’s supreme leader, ushering in a sudden and dangerous turning point for the Middle East.
  2. Iran has launched widespread drone and missile retaliations and further U.S.-Israeli strikes are continuing, greatly increasing the risk of a wider, prolonged war.
  3. The attack reflects a shift toward a 'decapitation' strategy and has sparked urgent legal and congressional battles at home; analysts warn the fighting could be long, costly, and might either topple the regime or deepen suffering inside Iran.

Niall Ferguson: The Arrogance of Trump’s Foreign-Policy Critics

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 1609 implied HN points • 25 Jan 26
🌐 International Diplomacy
  1. Many critics act as if the president can never be right, rushing to condemn him without considering that he might sometimes make good decisions.
  2. His showing at a major international forum surprised many and suggests he can win over skeptical audiences, challenging conventional wisdom.
  3. Observers would do better to be humble and accept that any administration can get some things right and some things wrong.

Is the First Lady of Nigeria Scared?

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 802 implied HN points • 12 Feb 26
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy
  1. The First Lady downplayed claims of a Christian genocide and said she came to the U.S. to ‘clarify’ and push back against what she called social media hype.
  2. President Bola Tinubu publicly denies religious persecution, and the First Lady only partly echoed him by saying his position is true “to an extent.”
  3. Independent reporting, photographs, and eyewitness testimony describe serious attacks on Christian communities, creating a sharp contrast with official denials.

Encouraging News: Lindsey Graham Looks HEARTBROKEN About Iran

Caitlin’s Newsletter • 2132 implied HN points • 16 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Diplomacy
  1. Lindsey Graham’s facial expressions are presented as a shorthand indicator of how eager US leaders are for military action.
  2. Reports that airstrikes on Iran are unlikely are viewed skeptically because past misleading statements have sometimes preceded real attacks.
  3. Many find it hopeful when hawkish politicians look discouraged, and satire (like a joking "Graham-o-Meter") is suggested to track and mock warmongering.

The Increasing Attacks on Francesca Albanese Presage a New Dark Age

The Chris Hedges Report • 511 implied HN points • 16 Feb 26
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy
  1. Francesca Albanese, the UN special rapporteur on the occupied Palestinian territories, has been hit by a coordinated campaign from the U.S., Israel and several European governments that includes public attacks, sanctions and measures that block her travel and access to banking.
  2. Those attacks use misleading clips and political pressure to silence criticism of Israel’s actions in Gaza and the West Bank, even as many governments continue supplying arms and contributing to a worsening humanitarian crisis.
  3. The trend reflects a worrying erosion of international law and free speech, where powerful states can punish critics and shield abuses, risking greater impunity and repression worldwide.

Trump Is Back-Door Begging Iran to Talk Peace

God's Spies by Thomas Neuburger • 65 implied HN points • 17 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy
  1. Though publicly boasting of military success, the administration quietly asked Iran for talks, with special envoy Steve Witkoff sending messages to Tehran.
  2. Iranian officials say they ignored those outreach efforts and that only the Supreme Leader can authorize negotiations, effectively closing the door to direct talks.
  3. The contrast between loud public rhetoric and private pleas highlights mixed signals and suggests the conflict may continue until one side falters, raising doubts about the coherence of the strategy.