Glennโ€™s Substack

Professor of political science with research focus on geoeconomics, Russian foreign policy and Eurasian integration

The hottest Substack posts of Glennโ€™s Substack

And their main takeaways
2318 implied HN points โ€ข 02 Oct 24
  1. The US faces a serious economic crisis due to high debt levels and declining fiscal responsibility. The country has been unable to effectively address these financial issues since the 2008 crisis.
  2. Efforts to boost US competitiveness, like subsidies and sanctions, often backfire and may harm the economy more. In contrast, countries like China are gaining strength by diversifying their economies and forming new partnerships.
  3. As the US struggles, other countries are building a new economic system that doesn't rely on America. This shift might create a world where multiple powers coexist, rather than one dominant force.
1798 implied HN points โ€ข 27 Sep 24
  1. The Nord Stream pipeline attack severed Europe's energy ties with Russia, leading to significant economic changes for both regions.
  2. Initially, the US and NATO blamed Russia for the attack, but later reports suggested that Ukraine might have been involved while evidence pointed to a possible US connection.
  3. As the narrative around the attack evolved, European nations began to turn against each other, showing tensions and doubts about their alliances.
1199 implied HN points โ€ข 24 Sep 24
  1. NATO is seen by some as outdated and stuck in Cold War thinking. It focuses on dividing the world into good and evil, which may not lead to real security.
  2. The expansion of NATO has created conflicts rather than resolving them. This approach often leads to more militarization and tensions with countries like Russia.
  3. There's a call for a new way of thinking about security that includes cooperation with former adversaries instead of forming exclusive military alliances.
1278 implied HN points โ€ข 23 Sep 24
  1. NATO's involvement in Ukraine has escalated tensions and contributed to the conflict. This involvement is seen as a major factor in Russia's decision to invade Ukraine.
  2. There were opportunities for peace that were sabotaged by Western leaders, showing that the conflict has become a proxy war. This raises concerns that Ukraine is being used as a tool in a larger geopolitical struggle.
  3. The situation risks escalating to a nuclear war as Russia views NATO's presence as an existential threat. The current standoff is very dangerous, and many feel it could lead to severe consequences.
1039 implied HN points โ€ข 24 Sep 24
  1. The conflict in Gaza is spreading and could bring in more countries, which worries local leaders facing protests for not being tougher against Israel and the US.
  2. Ukraine is struggling with a lack of resources, and the situation is getting worse as public support is fading and political divisions grow.
  3. Both the Middle East and Ukraine are heading towards major wars, and the US seems to lack a clear plan to deal with these rising tensions.
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1718 implied HN points โ€ข 17 Sep 24
  1. NATO's support for Ukraine is often framed as a selfless act to help against Russia, but it may not align with what most Ukrainians actually want. Many Ukrainians have shown little interest in joining NATO.
  2. There have been several instances where peace agreements, such as the Minsk-2 agreement, were ignored or sabotaged by Western powers, showing that their true interests may lie elsewhere.
  3. The situation in Ukraine has led to severe consequences for the population, with many lives lost and a push towards nationalism and division, rather than unity and peace.
1978 implied HN points โ€ข 14 Sep 24
  1. Putin believes that long-range missiles provided by NATO will turn the conflict into a direct war between NATO and Russia. He warns this could escalate to nuclear war.
  2. The situation reflects a shift from a proxy war, where NATO supported Ukraine against Russia indirectly, to a direct confrontation. Incremental steps by NATO have blurred the lines between these two types of conflict.
  3. There is a concern that Russia will respond aggressively if NATO attacks. This could lead to serious escalation, putting the world at risk of a nuclear exchange.
619 implied HN points โ€ข 26 Sep 24
  1. Modernity and liberalism are criticized for focusing too much on individualism and reason, which Dugin believes disconnects people from their cultural and spiritual roots. He wants to emphasize collective identities, traditions, and faith.
  2. Dugin proposes a 'fourth political theory' as a new way of thinking about politics that values family, religion, and humanity's deeper nature. He argues it's a response to the limitations of existing ideologies like liberalism, fascism, and communism.
  3. Eurasianism is seen as a way for different civilizations to work together while appreciating their unique identities. Dugin believes this approach can create better international relations and is a chance for a new global understanding as Western dominance fades.
1099 implied HN points โ€ข 20 Sep 24
  1. BRICS is working to create a new economic system that doesn't depend on the US. This means countries can trade and cooperate without worrying about US control.
  2. There is a strong desire among countries to join BRICS and work together to trade in their own currencies instead of the US dollar. This could help protect their economies from US influence.
  3. BRICS aims to foster connections between diverse nations, including rivals, to manage political issues through economic collaboration, rather than division. This could lead to a more cooperative global environment.
1119 implied HN points โ€ข 19 Sep 24
  1. The US is no longer the dominant world power. There is a shift towards a multipolar world where multiple countries have influence.
  2. Western leaders struggle to imagine new ways of working in this multipolar world. They often want to cling to old ideas of Western dominance instead of adapting.
  3. Instead of trying to restore past power dynamics, the West should look for new opportunities that come with this change in global power.
1838 implied HN points โ€ข 06 Sep 24
  1. Scandinavia is shifting from a peaceful region to a frontline for the US military, which might lead to more conflicts. Countries like Norway are hosting US military bases, causing Russia to feel threatened.
  2. The history shows that when one country's security increases, it often makes neighboring countries feel less secure, leading to a security competition. This was the case during the Cold War with Finland and Sweden acting as neutral states to reduce tensions.
  3. NATO's expansion, including Sweden and Finland joining, is seen by some as a major mistake. It might actually increase tensions rather than provide security, as past experiences suggest that surrounding a country with military alliances can provoke it.
1718 implied HN points โ€ข 02 Sep 24
  1. Russia and China are building a new trade route for grain. This helps Russia sell more food to China, taking market share away from US farmers.
  2. The BRICS nations are creating a new system that makes the US dollar less important in trade. This means countries can trade more freely without US influence.
  3. US farmers are struggling to get the information they need about global markets. Without this info, they can't make good decisions about what crops to plant.
1378 implied HN points โ€ข 04 Sep 24
  1. Ukrainian military losses are rising, which is common as wars reach their final stages. When a side is losing, they often struggle with resources, morale, and communication.
  2. The situation in Ukraine is worsening with fewer troops and equipment. As their frontlines weaken, many soldiers are defecting or surrendering, leading to a chaotic military environment.
  3. NATO faces difficult choices in response to the war. There's growing pressure to either negotiate peace or increase involvement, while the risk of a direct conflict with Russia looms large.
939 implied HN points โ€ข 10 Sep 24
  1. Germany's current approach to foreign policy often neglects its own national interests, which could lead to negative consequences for the country.
  2. There is a historical pattern of Germany sacrificing its interests for external powers, similar to its past under France and now the US.
  3. A rise in nationalism may occur as a reaction to this neglect, with people seeking to reclaim control over their national identity and sovereignty.
839 implied HN points โ€ข 09 Sep 24
  1. Germany and the EU need to rethink their approach to the Ukraine crisis or they might end up in serious trouble together. Changes are necessary to avoid breaking apart.
  2. Some experts believe NATO made mistakes that helped to spark the Ukraine war and that these mistakes are causing more issues for Europe now.
  3. There's growing concern about political violence and less freedom of speech in Germany. New political movements are also rising, which the current government does not approve of.
659 implied HN points โ€ข 08 Sep 24
  1. Neither Ukraine nor Russia can truly win the war. Both sides are unlikely to achieve their political goals, and ongoing support from the West may not change the military balance.
  2. Ukraine's recent offensive into Russian territory may turn out to be a risky move rather than a game-changer. The action could lead to greater military challenges as Ukraine stretches its resources thin.
  3. A peaceful resolution to the conflict seems increasingly distant. Both sides have strong preconditions for negotiations, and external factors like upcoming U.S. elections could impact the situation further.
1418 implied HN points โ€ข 20 Aug 24
  1. In a war of attrition, the goal is to wear down the enemy, not just take land. Taking territory requires a lot of resources and can be costly.
  2. Territorial gains often get celebrated, but theyโ€™re not always strategic. Advancing too far can harm supply lines and weaken defenses.
  3. There's pressure in the West to support any gains by Ukraine, which complicates discussions about effective strategies. Sometimes, focusing on PR can overshadow the real military needs.
999 implied HN points โ€ข 27 Aug 24
  1. Reason and individualism are important, but they need a balance with tradition and community. Without this balance, societies may struggle to maintain cohesion.
  2. The rise of moral relativism challenges the foundations of secular morality, making it hard to find common ground in society. People may disagree on values and laws without shared beliefs.
  3. Liberal democratic values are under threat as moral arguments lack a strong foundation. This may lead to laws that rely more on force than on a shared understanding of right and wrong.
1099 implied HN points โ€ข 19 Aug 24
  1. NATO's involvement in Ukraine started with the 2014 coup, which led to increased tensions with Russia. This has shaped the current conflict, making it more than just a territorial dispute.
  2. Russia's responses to NATO's actions have been cautious, as they fear escalating to nuclear war. They are carefully considering how to react without triggering a larger conflict.
  3. The narrative in Western media portrays Russia as the sole aggressor, ignoring the complexities of NATO's role. This can limit discussions on diplomatic solutions and foster more hostility.
859 implied HN points โ€ข 23 Aug 24
  1. Europe is struggling because it is not adapting to the new multipolar world. Instead of building ties with other major economies, it is relying heavily on the U.S., which makes it weaker.
  2. Countries around the world are trying to diversify their economic connections to avoid too much dependence on a single superpower. Europe, on the other hand, is falling behind by sticking closely to U.S. interests.
  3. As the U.S. shifts its focus to Asia, Europe risks losing its political and economic relevance. If Europe doesnโ€™t change its approach, it might find itself increasingly sidelined.
559 implied HN points โ€ข 30 Aug 24
  1. Russia has shifted its focus from the West to the East, forming a closer relationship with China after feeling isolated by the West. This change is part of a broader strategy to create a new economic landscape in Eurasia.
  2. China is rising as a major global player and has shown it can challenge US economic leadership. It has invested heavily in infrastructure and is leading efforts for a new financial architecture.
  3. The partnership between Russia and China is more than just a temporary alliance against the US. Both countries recognize they can benefit from working together to shape a new international economic system that includes other nations.
739 implied HN points โ€ข 22 Aug 24
  1. NATO's involvement in the war may blur the lines between a proxy war and direct conflict, raising concerns about escalation.
  2. Russia has been cautious in its response to NATO actions, as retaliating could lead to a larger global conflict.
  3. The recent invasion of Kursk by Ukraine and NATO has led to significant Ukrainian casualties and weakened defensive positions, with NATO's role now more apparent.
519 implied HN points โ€ข 30 Aug 24
  1. Both Israel and Ukraine are in conflicts they can't win and are escalating their actions instead of seeking peace. This makes the situation more dangerous.
  2. The countries are trying to involve the US more deeply in their wars, hoping that American support will change their fortunes.
  3. There is a lack of serious discussions or diplomatic efforts to address the escalating tensions, which could lead to a wider conflict.
539 implied HN points โ€ข 29 Aug 24
  1. The situation is tense between NATO and Russia, with both sides pretending not to be in a direct conflict. This makes it seem like a war is already taking place without formal recognition.
  2. Recent attacks on Russian territory and nuclear plants are pushing the situation closer to nuclear war. This escalation raises serious concerns about global safety.
  3. The American government's silence on these actions raises questions about their real intentions and strategy in the region. It makes people wonder how they plan to address these conflicts.
779 implied HN points โ€ข 12 Aug 24
  1. Ideological fundamentalism makes enemies out of other countries based on labels instead of their actual actions. This can lead to misunderstanding and conflict.
  2. George Kennan criticized how the U.S. viewed the Soviet Union, saying the portrayal was extreme and didnโ€™t reflect reality. He warned that this type of thinking is dangerous for political actions.
  3. Seeing adversaries as simple 'bad guys' stops us from understanding their complexities. It's important to recognize shared challenges, rather than just focusing on conflict.
1019 implied HN points โ€ข 02 Jul 24
  1. Ukraine's desire to join NATO is an idealistic view that ignores the reality of global power dynamics. Instead of thinking about what should be, it's important to consider how nations actually function and secure their interests.
  2. Pushing for NATO expansion in Ukraine can escalate conflict and create a cycle of tension. It suggests to Russia that NATO is a direct threat, leading to a need for military intervention.
  3. The argument that Ukraine has a right to join NATO oversimplifies a complex situation. Real peace might come from recognizing the security concerns of all parties rather than insisting on alliance expansion that could lead to further instability.
619 implied HN points โ€ข 26 Jul 24
  1. In a war of attrition, defeating the enemy is more important than capturing land, but this can lead to heavy casualties and slow progress.
  2. The media often downplays the reality of casualties to maintain public support for the conflict, creating a false image of victory.
  3. Calls for peace and negotiations are often dismissed or punished, even though they could help save lives and end the fighting.
559 implied HN points โ€ข 27 Jul 24
  1. Culture plays a big role in international politics, and France has a strong history of embracing cosmopolitanism.
  2. The opening ceremony of the Olympics may be seen as a show of tolerance, but it also has contradictions regarding accepting criticism.
  3. Liberal societies often struggle with tolerance for different opinions, especially about issues like immigration and gender, which can create cultural pressure to conform.
319 implied HN points โ€ข 06 Aug 24
  1. The US plans to deploy new missiles in Germany that can hit Moscow in just 2-3 minutes. This short response time raises the risk of an accidental nuclear conflict.
  2. In response, Russia may decentralize its decision-making to ensure a quicker reaction against perceived threats, potentially increasing tensions.
  3. The abandonment of the INF Treaty has led to a situation similar to the Cuban Missile Crisis, with no clear benefit to security, highlighting the need for serious discussions about nuclear weapons policies.
379 implied HN points โ€ข 27 Jul 24
  1. Kamala Harris is expected to continue Joe Biden's foreign policies, even though she has less experience in this area. This means the current strategy in Ukraine might not change much.
  2. If Trump were to win, he might push for quicker peace talks regarding Ukraine. His focus is on getting allies to pay for protection and recognizing the costs of the ongoing conflict.
  3. The outcome of the U.S. political situation could impact how the Ukraine war is managed. Both sides may have different approaches that could lead to either continued conflict or negotiations.
859 implied HN points โ€ข 10 Jun 24
  1. Some human rights NGOs are seen as tools that promote government agendas rather than genuinely protecting civil rights. They can suppress certain voices while promoting others.
  2. These NGOs often have ties to government funding and influence, which makes their claims of being independent questionable. This situation can lead to the misrepresentation of public opinion.
  3. The relationship between government, corporations, and NGOs can complicate the role of civil society. This can limit independent thought and discussion in places like universities.
2 HN points โ€ข 05 Oct 24
  1. Censorship in the US is getting stronger, targeting various media and putting pressure on tech companies to limit certain viewpoints. This affects how people get information and what they can freely express online.
  2. The process of normalizing censorship often starts with small, seemingly justified actions, making it easier for the public to accept them over time. This 'slow boiling' approach gradually expands what speech is considered unacceptable.
  3. As the government and tech companies control more online speech, there's a growing call for alternative platforms that support free expression, highlighting the increasing need for forums where diverse opinions can be shared.
419 implied HN points โ€ข 21 Jun 24
  1. Open discussion about complex issues, like the war in Ukraine, is important. Without it, we can't find real solutions.
  2. Different countries have various views on what 'Europe' means, affecting how they see issues like democracy and values.
  3. The media often simplifies conflicts into good vs. evil, which can stop meaningful debate and compromise from happening.
439 implied HN points โ€ข 16 Jun 24
  1. Labeling someone as 'controversial' can shut down meaningful debate. It's important to have open discussions, especially about difficult topics like international conflicts.
  2. Censorship often happens under the guise of protecting moral values, but it can prevent us from understanding the full picture. People need to hear all sides of an argument to make informed decisions.
  3. Understanding the other party's perspective in conflicts is crucial for peace. Instead of dividing ourselves, we should look for ways to engage and resolve issues together.
239 implied HN points โ€ข 28 Jun 24
  1. NATO may have played a role in provoking Russia's invasion of Ukraine. This idea is supported by some evidence in discussions.
  2. The argument about NATO's involvement gets complicated because it can be mistaken for supporting Russia's actions. It's important to separate facts from opinions.
  3. Understanding these events requires looking at the facts without bias. People often mix up facts with the narratives they want to believe.
259 implied HN points โ€ข 01 Jun 24
  1. The world is experiencing a period of uncertainty between two types of power structures: unipolarity and multipolarity. This confusion can lead to increased competition among major nations.
  2. Such power struggles create risks that could escalate into serious conflicts, potentially even a nuclear war.
  3. Understanding these tensions is important for recognizing the dynamics of global relationships and the potential for future crises.
179 implied HN points โ€ข 19 Jun 24
  1. The recent 'peace summit' didn't include Russia or discuss everyoneโ€™s security concerns, which is a big problem.
  2. The summit focused more on getting signatures for a declaration instead of really solving the conflict.
  3. There might be pressure now for a real peace summit that actually tries to end the war instead of just picking a side.
179 implied HN points โ€ข 19 Jun 24
  1. The West is not fully aware of the risks it faces, which could lead to major conflicts.
  2. Ignoring signs of rising tensions might result in bigger problems for everyone.
  3. It's important for leaders to engage in dialogue and understand global dynamics better to avoid war.
179 implied HN points โ€ข 17 Jun 24
  1. NATO and Russia have had tensions for 30 years, leading to a potential conflict. It's important to understand this history to see how we got here.
  2. There is a growing idea of a multipolar world, especially in Eurasia, that could lead to more stability. Different countries working together can balance power and prevent wars.
  3. Shifting from a Western-dominated world to a multipolar approach might help create a more peaceful global environment. Looking beyond just one powerful nation can support better international relations.