The hottest Economic History Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Why the Fed fears cutting interest rates too soon

Global Markets Investor • 0 implied HN points • 08 Feb 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Inflation Interest Rates Economic History
  1. The Fed fears cutting interest rates too soon due to concerns about a potential inflation resurgence similar to the 1970s.
  2. The Federal Reserve in the 1970s under Arthur Burns made a significant policy mistake by cutting interest rates too soon, leading to high inflation rates later.
  3. Lessons from history emphasize the importance of not cutting interest rates prematurely, and the Fed is cautious about considering rate cuts until more data is available to assess inflation and economic indicators.

The Broken Bargain

Logos and Liberty • 0 implied HN points • 12 May 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic History Income Inequality Financial Crisis Political Analysis
  1. Robert Reich's 'Aftershock' analyzes the 2008 crash and emphasizes the need for fundamental social and economic reform.
  2. Reich highlights parallels between the lead-up to the Great Depression and the Great Recession, such as income inequality, increasing household debt, and speculative activity.
  3. Reich proposes policy solutions to restore the basic bargain, including a reverse income tax, a carbon tax, and higher marginal tax rates on the wealthy, among others.

The Problem with the Persistence Literature

Something to Consider • 0 implied HN points • 14 Mar 23
💾 History Economic History Historical Events Research Methodology
  1. Many studies look at how past events affect the present but often don't help us understand future outcomes. It's easy to tell stories about what happened before, but challenging to predict how current events will shape the future.
  2. Some research does use past events to study how systems and institutions work, which is more useful. These studies can help us understand why some countries thrive while others do not.
  3. Not all papers in the persistence literature are valuable. If they only focus on how past events influence today without making any connections to the future, they might not be worth our time.

Investing and Valuation Lessons from the Renaissance

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 15 Aug 16
💰 Finance Investing Valuation Market Trends Economic History Financial Education
  1. Investing requires faith, much like the builders of the Duomo had patience. You often need to trust your judgment and stick to your valuations, even when the market seems unpredictable.
  2. Many investment lessons are not new; they are just being forgotten and rediscovered. It's important to learn from past mistakes instead of assuming we're better than earlier investors.
  3. Combining storytelling and data is key in investing. Just as art and science can work together, being skilled in both narrative and numbers can lead to better investment decisions.

Investment consultants are (quietly) doing great

Fund Marketer • 0 implied HN points • 01 May 24
💰 Finance Investment Consulting Market Trends Asset management Economic History
  1. Investment consultants are becoming very influential in the market, with 85% of large investors relying on them for manager selection. This shows they play a key role in guiding investment decisions.
  2. The top twenty investment consultants control a large portion of the industry, making it easier for them to shape which managers are chosen by clients. This concentration means fewer choices for investors.
  3. Investment consultants warn that trendy investment options, like private assets, can be risky and often lead to disappointing results for late investors. It's important to be cautious and think long-term.
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