The hottest Investment Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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If AI Is So Great, Someone Should Tell GDP

The Algorithmic Bridge • 222 implied HN points • 05 Mar 25
🕹 Technology AI Economics Infrastructure Productivity Investment
  1. AI investments have been rising, but there's not much difference in overall economic growth or productivity. This makes us question if spending so much on AI is really worthwhile.
  2. Companies are unsure whether it's better to invest heavily in new AI technology or to optimize what they already have. It’s a tricky balance to strike.
  3. Despite the hype around AI, it hasn't significantly improved things like GDP or human well-being. It's clear that AI is still looking for its true role in boosting our economy.

How Trump’s Tariff Threat Made Apple Jump

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 570 implied HN points • 24 Feb 25
💼 Business Economics Corporate Trade Investment Leadership
  1. Apple plans to invest $500 billion in the U.S., which could set a trend for other companies. This is a big decision that shows they are responding to economic pressures.
  2. Trump's comments on tariffs indicate he believes they can influence business decisions, like Apple's move to invest domestically.
  3. The situation reflects how political actions can have real effects on large businesses and their investment strategies.

加油比特币 Let's Go Bitcoin

Crypto Trader Digest • 2281 implied HN points • 28 Oct 24
🔮 Crypto Bitcoin Finance Economics Investment Market Trends
  1. Governments often inflate property bubbles to maintain public support, as owning property ties people's wealth to the state. If people feel secure about their homes, they're less likely to revolt.
  2. China is facing a property bubble crisis similar to those seen in other countries, and it might inject a lot of money into the economy to recover. This could lead to more yuan being traded for Bitcoin as people seek to protect their wealth.
  3. Even though the current stimulus might seem small, once people realize that money is being pumped into the economy, there could be a rush to buy Bitcoin. Historically, Bitcoin tends to rise sharply when significant money is printed.

July 14: the Startup Luncheon, with Lawrence Krubner and The Fourth Effect

Respectful Leadership • 54 implied HN points • 19 Jun 25
💼 Business Startups Networking Leadership Investment Events
  1. The Startup Luncheon brings together top minds in New York City's startup scene. It's a great chance to learn from experienced professionals in the industry.
  2. Attendees can enjoy a meal while listening to insightful talks from various speakers. This makes networking both appealing and informative.
  3. Tickets are available at a discount for early birds, and loyal subscribers can attend for free. This creates good opportunities for continued learning and connection.

Economics Roundup #5

Don't Worry About the Vase • 1836 implied HN points • 25 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economics Taxation Investment Debt Trade
  1. Many people believe that average tax rates and structures are unfair or ineffective. This could mean that policies need to evolve to better meet people's needs without creating high penalties for earning more.
  2. Trade barriers impact economic growth negatively, as they create higher costs in trade and limit opportunity for development across regions, both domestically and internationally.
  3. Access to credit can significantly influence people's financial wellbeing. If restrictions are placed on credit availability, it can harm those who are already struggling financially.
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Some Regulatory Certainty

Points And Figures • 612 implied HN points • 28 Feb 25
🔮 Crypto Regulation Innovation Investment Market Trends Financial Technology
  1. The SEC has decided that crypto memecoins are not considered securities, giving the industry more regulatory clarity. This is a positive change compared to the confusion that existed before.
  2. While crypto hasn't become essential for everyone's daily life yet, there are potential future uses, like tokenizing assets or using stablecoins for easier international payments.
  3. Regulation can sometimes create unfair advantages for big companies and stifle competition. It's important to be aware of these effects while also ensuring that people aren't misled by things like memecoins.

The Thiel-Andreessen Axis

From the New World • 59 implied HN points • 30 Jun 25
💼 Business Startups Investment Technology Market Trends Entrepreneurship
  1. Peter Thiel and Marc Andreessen have different views on how businesses succeed in competitive markets. Thiel sees a winner-takes-all approach, while Andreessen focuses on timing in fast-changing tech environments.
  2. The AI industry is shifting. The idea that large companies will dominate is evolving, with new technology making it easier for startups to collect data and compete.
  3. Instead of competing against each other, Thiel and Andreessen's ideas complement each other. It's important to explore both approaches to find the best strategy for any business or industry.

Why Selling AI Automation to Hedge Funds Is Hard

Enterprise AI Trends • 63 implied HN points • 29 Jun 25
💼 Business Finance Sales Technology Investment Automation
  1. Selling AI to hedge funds is quite challenging. They often lack success stories and top-down support can make a difference.
  2. Investment managers face unique barriers when considering new technology like AI. Understanding these barriers can help tailor your sales approach.
  3. Many companies have struggled to sell AI in finance, leading some to pivot their strategies. It's important to learn from these experiences to succeed.

Africa's Hustle Generation: Ambition, Innovation, Opportunity

Workforce Futurist by Andy Spence • 146 implied HN points • 26 Feb 25
💼 Business Economics Entrepreneurship Investment Workforce Innovation
  1. Africa has the youngest population in the world, with many young people entering the workforce. This could lead Africa to play a bigger role in global growth by 2030.
  2. There is a thriving start-up culture in Africa, especially in technology and finance. Companies are getting more funding and creating new job opportunities.
  3. As more people in Africa move to cities, the potential for innovation and entrepreneurship increases. Urban centers are becoming major hubs for new businesses and investments.

TBM 361: Context, Collaboration, Intent, and Investment

The Beautiful Mess • 476 implied HN points • 06 Jun 25
💼 Business Strategy Management Collaboration Investment Operations
  1. Understanding context is important. It helps teams see the bigger picture and how things change over time.
  2. Intent is about setting clear goals for the future. Being specific about what you want to achieve can help guide actions.
  3. Collaboration and investment matter, too. Good teamwork and smart use of resources can drive better results and make projects more successful.

Economists and Price/Rent Ratios

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 189 implied HN points • 26 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Economics Market Analysis Investment Housing policy
  1. Most economists think that price/rent ratios should stay the same over time. But actually, changes in rents are what mostly drive these ratios.
  2. A big reason the housing market is often misunderstood is because economists don’t factor in how much access to mortgages has changed since 2008.
  3. Rents have been rising faster than other costs, which affects home prices. This key point is often overlooked, meaning many people are missing out on important trading opportunities.

Top Links 765 Military R&D in America. Nigeria's investment plans. The "imperial meridian" and Nelson on the mosquito coast.

Chartbook • 515 implied HN points • 10 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Military Investment Policy History International
  1. The U.S. military invests heavily in research and development to stay advanced in technology and defense. This helps keep the country safe and operates effectively.
  2. Nigeria has exciting plans for investment that could impact its economy and future growth. It's important to watch how these investments develop.
  3. The history of the U.S. military-industrial complex shows how it was reduced in the 1990s, which is interesting for understanding current military funding and operations.

Notes on DeepSeek: Generative AI is All About the Applications Now

Big Technology • 25395 implied HN points • 27 Jan 25
🕹 Technology AI Applications Development Infrastructure Investment
  1. Generative AI is now cheaper to build, making it easier for developers to create new applications. This means we might start seeing more innovative uses of AI technology.
  2. The focus is shifting from how much money is spent on infrastructure to what practical applications can be built with AI. This could change the way companies approach AI development.
  3. While there is potential for exciting products, there is still uncertainty about how to effectively use generative AI. Not all that has been built so far has met high expectations.

Model City Monday 2/3/25

Astral Codex Ten • 15417 implied HN points • 03 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Constitutional Law Political strategy Urban Development Investment International relations
  1. The Honduran Supreme Court has ruled charter cities unconstitutional, impacting Prospera, which is now trying to adapt to regular laws while also pursuing a $10 billion lawsuit for damages.
  2. Saudi Arabia's NEOM project, initially planned as a long linear city, has scaled back to a shorter model, focusing on hosting upcoming major events, showcasing the challenges in large city development.
  3. Trump has proposed creating ten 'freedom cities' on federal land in the U.S., sparking debate about the feasibility and implications of building new cities in less desirable locations.

The Transcript Editor's Commentary

The Transcript • 19 implied HN points • 30 Oct 24
💰 Finance Economics Investment Monetary Policy Consumer spending Elections
  1. The economy seems stable and strong, with good consumer spending and low delinquency rates. People are feeling positive about their finances.
  2. Optimism in businesses is growing, especially with recent changes in interest rates. However, for more demand, companies want more rate cuts and easier lending conditions.
  3. The upcoming presidential election is important for the economy. The new president will influence economic policies that could affect the markets for years to come.

🎇 Stargate isn't enough. Save the NSF

Faster, Please! • 731 implied HN points • 08 Feb 25
🕹 Technology AI Infrastructure Government Investment Globalization
  1. America needs government support for technology, like what the National Science Foundation provides, not just help from big tech companies like those in Silicon Valley.
  2. Expansion of AI infrastructure, like the Stargate project, is important for keeping up with global competition, especially with advancements coming from other countries.
  3. Recent discussions about a Chinese AI model's efficiency highlight the need for the U.S. to continue investing in its tech sector to stay innovative and competitive.

Projects don't pencil.

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 231 implied HN points • 17 Feb 25
💼 Business Economics Real Estate Market Trends Finance Investment
  1. When projects don't pencil, it can relate to high costs or other factors, but it doesn't always explain the larger market trends clearly. Builders often focus too narrowly on costs without considering broader economic influences.
  2. There's a constant shift in the number of projects that pencil versus those that don't, depending on market conditions. Just because many projects aren't penciling doesn't mean that new projects won't be started; it can often indicate changing circumstances.
  3. Understanding why projects aren't penciling is complex. Costs, demand, and other factors all play a role, but it's important to avoid oversimplifying the reasons behind these changes.

The Oddest Man Out Among Our $Hundred-Billionaires: Elon Musk

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 492 implied HN points • 04 Jun 25
💼 Business Economics Entrepreneurship Market Trends Corporate strategy Investment
  1. Elon Musk's wealth, largely tied to Tesla, is facing challenges as the company’s profit growth may not continue. The recent surge in Tesla's sales was helped by market conditions and celebrity status, but that charm seems to be fading.
  2. Many billionaires, especially those in tech, have consistent income from their businesses. In contrast, Musk's financial future looks uncertain as competition in the electric vehicle market increases and his brand image shifts.
  3. The reasons people used to buy Teslas included its innovation and eco-friendliness. Now, with Musk's controversial actions, many of those who once supported the brand are distancing themselves, which could hurt Tesla's future sales.

Strategic Funds

Points And Figures • 692 implied HN points • 05 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investment Economic Policy Taxation Cryptocurrency Government spending
  1. The idea of a Strategic Wealth Fund (SWF) and a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) is seen as bad because they could go against individual freedoms and lead to misuse of taxpayer money.
  2. Government can't truly invest money; it can only spend what it collects from taxes or borrows. This means investments made by the government aren't genuine investments.
  3. Bitcoin is still mostly potential and hasn't proven its real-world value. Critics argue that despite years of development, it lacks practical uses in everyday life.

What if the Current Tech IPO Drought isn't a Drought but the New Normal for Venture?

Venture Reflections • 18 implied HN points • 25 Feb 25
💼 Business Venture Capital Startups IPO Finance Investment
  1. The slowdown in tech IPOs might not be a temporary issue, but rather a shift to fewer, larger IPOs that happen less frequently. This could change how we view the IPO landscape.
  2. Many companies are now able to raise enough money privately, so they don't feel the need to go public. This reduces the urgency for IPOs as a source of liquidity.
  3. As companies wait longer to go public, secondary sales could become the main way smaller investors get returns. This change means that the investment landscape might focus more on private equity than on public markets.

Our community round has opened—let's fund this book!

The Novelleist • 282 implied HN points • 29 May 25
💼 Business Investment Crowdfunding Publishing Economics Capitalism
  1. The community funding round for the book 'We Should Own The Economy' has opened, allowing readers to invest and share in potential profits.
  2. They have already raised almost $60,000 and invite everyone to confirm their investments through a provided link.
  3. There's an open call tonight where participants can ask questions about the book and contribute ideas on how to shape the future of capitalism.

Reading List 02/15/25

Construction Physics • 8351 implied HN points • 15 Feb 25
💼 Business Insurance Automotive Investment Infrastructure Technology
  1. California is facing a homeowners insurance crisis, with the state relying on private insurers for a bailout to support its last-resort fire insurance, leading to increased costs for homeowners.
  2. Tech companies are vastly increasing their investments in AI data centers, with major players like Microsoft and Google planning to spend over $215 billion combined this fiscal year.
  3. Tesla is seeing a decline in sales both in Europe and the US, which may be linked to public perception of Elon Musk and his influence on politics.

✨⚡ Can we actually build Stargate?

Faster, Please! • 1005 implied HN points • 23 Jan 25
🕹 Technology AI Infrastructure Regulation Investment Jobs
  1. A big project called Stargate aims to invest $500 billion in AI infrastructure in the U.S. This could create over 100,000 jobs and involves building large data centers.
  2. There are concerns about whether the funding will be available, particularly from one of the investors, SoftBank. This skepticism raises doubts about the project's financial backing.
  3. The biggest challenge for Stargate might be the complicated federal permitting and regulatory processes. These rules could delay construction and impact the project's success.

The Frankfurter Index

Doomberg • 6098 implied HN points • 30 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investment Currency Commodities Economic Theory Financial Analysis
  1. The price of everyday items can help us understand the true value of money over time. For example, the cost of hot dogs compared to the price of gold shows how much the dollar has changed.
  2. While the value of the US dollar has been decreasing, it's important to look at prices in relation to gold to see the bigger picture. Gold has been a constant measure of value throughout history.
  3. Some people worry that we will run out of oil, but advancements in technology suggest otherwise. Oil and gas companies are innovating and have plenty of resources available.

Money, Drama, and China: Why AI’s Next Step Could Be Messy

Big Technology • 6880 implied HN points • 24 Jan 25
🕹 Technology AI Open Source Startups Investment Competition
  1. A new AI model called DeepSeek is cheaper and efficient, potentially making big investments in AI technology seem unnecessary. This raises questions about how much companies should really spend on AI.
  2. DeepSeek's success is surprising since it was developed in China, challenging the notion that good tech only comes from big investments in the West. Its ability to compete shows that smaller companies can innovate effectively.
  3. This development might shift the AI landscape significantly. Big players like OpenAI may need to rethink their approaches to stay competitive, especially now that cheaper models are proving their worth.

A Quick Q&A on predicting super AI through bond markets with … Trevor Chow

Faster, Please! • 91 implied HN points • 20 Feb 25
💰 Finance Markets Interest Rates Investment Economics AI
  1. Interest rates might predict the rise of advanced AI. As people expect big changes, they want to spend more now instead of saving for the future.
  2. Higher long-term growth expectations often lead to higher real interest rates. This shows that bond markets can hint at when transformative AI might arrive.
  3. Both positive and negative outcomes of AI can push rates up. Whether AI leads to great progress or poses risks, people behave similarly by wanting to consume now.

Friday Macro Sitch Watching: The Grit from the Sandstorm Is Fierce!

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 207 implied HN points • 06 Jun 25
💰 Finance Macroeconomics Investment Economic Policy Market Trends Risk management
  1. In uncertain times, it's wise to be cautious and build safety instead of taking big risks. Waiting and watching can help us avoid bad decisions when the future is unclear.
  2. The economy is facing challenges like stagflation, which means slow growth and high prices. It's hard to tell if we're headed for a recession or if things will get better soon.
  3. Some people still have hope for a positive change, similar to past economic recoveries. They believe that chaos could lead to new growth opportunities, but there's a lot of uncertainty about what will happen next.

Market Sizing 101

The VC Corner • 759 implied HN points • 23 Aug 24
💼 Business Startups Investment Market Analysis Entrepreneurship Finance
  1. Understanding the size of your market is crucial for attracting investors and growing your business. A clear market size can make your pitch stand out.
  2. Market sizing involves knowing categories like Total Addressable Market (TAM) and Serviceable Available Market (SAM). These help you understand how big your market really is and how much of it you can reach.
  3. Many founders get stuck on the idea of a 'billion-dollar market'. It's important to look at market size more deeply, rather than just chasing big numbers. This helps avoid bad assumptions and discover real opportunities.

Behind $800M in Funding: 25+ Successful Startup Pitch Decks 💰

The VC Corner • 699 implied HN points • 24 Aug 24
💼 Business Startup Funding Pitching Entrepreneurship Investment
  1. A good pitch deck shows what your business is about and why it's valuable. It helps convince investors to trust your project and consider investing.
  2. Successful pitch decks make complicated ideas easy to understand. This is important so investors know what you're offering, even if they aren't experts in your field.
  3. To stand out, you need to show what makes your business special. Highlighting your unique approach helps attract interest in a competitive market.

Living beyond the edge

The Leap • 919 implied HN points • 15 Aug 24
💼 Business Venture Capital Startups Entrepreneurship Investment Innovation
  1. Skill and luck both play important roles in success, and understanding their balance can help us navigate challenges better.
  2. Nate Silver's new book dives into how to make decisions when facing uncertainty, which is relevant in today's world.
  3. Historically significant moments in tech, like the founding of PayPal, highlight the importance of timing and opportunity in achieving greatness.

California Home Sales Down 1.9% YoY in January; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 20 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Investment Market Trends Economic Indicators Real Estate
  1. California home sales fell by 1.9% in January compared to last year. This drop marks the first year-over-year decline in eight months.
  2. The median price for homes in California decreased from December but is still 6.3% higher than a year ago. This shows mixed signs in the housing market.
  3. Inventory of homes for sale increased significantly, up 27.4% year-over-year. More homes are available now, which could change the dynamics of the market.

Achieving Government Efficiency Requires More, Not Less, Investment

The Good Science Project • 44 implied HN points • 18 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Government Efficiency Public Policy Research Investment
  1. Government efficiency means getting more value from every dollar spent, not just cutting costs. Investing wisely can help achieve better results.
  2. To make government work better, we need to invest in research and development. This can help find smarter ways to deliver public services that benefit everyone.
  3. Cutting government spending isn't the answer to making it more efficient. We need to assess which programs work best and invest in them to create more social value.

Why I Left Norway

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 1553 implied HN points • 10 Dec 24
💼 Business Entrepreneurship Taxation Investment Startups Innovation
  1. High taxes in Norway, including a new unrealized gains tax, made it hard for entrepreneurs to keep their businesses profitable and maintain ownership. They struggled to balance their income with the need to pay these taxes.
  2. Many successful Norwegian entrepreneurs are leaving the country to escape burdensome taxes, and this trend is affecting the wealth distribution in Norway. A significant number of top taxpayers have relocated to protect their wealth.
  3. The situation in Norway reflects a troubling pattern where government policies may stifle innovation and entrepreneurship. This has created an environment where those who want to build businesses feel they have no choice but to move elsewhere.

The "Neutral" Rate and Implications for 30-year Mortgage Rates

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 18 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economics Investment Mortgage Monetary Policy Market Trends
  1. The neutral rate, which helps determine monetary policy, has increased back to levels seen before the financial crisis. This means current monetary policy might not be restricting the economy as much as previously thought.
  2. Some economists believe that the actual neutral rate is higher than expected, which could indicate that interest rates may not be as high as people fear.
  3. Fed Chair Powell agreed that the neutral rate has risen significantly since before the pandemic, suggesting a change in how we should view economic policy now.

What Do You Invest in?

Pratyush’s Newsletter • 79 implied HN points • 16 Oct 24
💼 Business Investment Entrepreneurship Venture Capital Startup Founders
  1. Investors should look for unique founders who stand out with exceptional traits, like intelligence and grit. A well-rounded person often doesn't lead to great investments.
  2. Successful companies often become the top choice in their category and have strong characteristics that help them stay ahead. These can include tricky competition or special technology.
  3. Timing is crucial; it's better to invest in companies before they become popular in the market. If everyone's already paying attention, it might be too late to find a winner.

Late-Cycle Investment Theory

European Straits • 49 implied HN points • 06 Jun 25
💼 Business Investment Strategy Economics Markets Capital
  1. We're in a late phase of technological revolution where innovation focuses more on efficiency rather than creating new disruptions. Companies now need to refine their strategies and embed existing technologies into the real world to succeed.
  2. As traditional tech models mature, new strategies will emerge to manage complex global systems, shifting the power dynamics within organizations and industries. It's no longer just about being innovative but being smart about implementation.
  3. Countries like China are emerging as leaders by mastering manufacturing and integrating it with new technologies, especially energy management. This trend suggests that future economic dominance will hinge on industrial capabilities rather than just financial prowess.

On Carlota Perez's "Technology Revolutions and Financial Capital"

Parth's Playground • 25 implied HN points • 10 Jun 25
💼 Business Technology Finance Investment Innovation Economics
  1. Technology goes through cycles of creation and adoption every 50 years. These cycles start with new technology being developed and then used by people, leading to big changes in society.
  2. Financial crises often happen in the middle of these cycles to clear out old ways of doing things and make space for new technologies to grow and connect with each other.
  3. Each new technology builds on past innovations, creating new opportunities. So, understanding where a technology is in its life cycle can help you know its potential and value.

ONE YEAR (& SIXTEEN YEARS) AGO ON GRASPING REALITY: The Panic of 1825

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 169 implied HN points • 29 May 25
💰 Finance Banking Economic Policy Financial Crisis Investment Monetary Systems
  1. The 1825 Panic marked a key moment in the development of modern central banking. It showed how banks can turn to a central authority for help during financial crises.
  2. The Bank of England stepped in during the 1825 financial turmoil to prevent a collapse of the banking system. This was a major shift, highlighting the importance of central banks in managing economic stability.
  3. The actions taken during the panic helped restore confidence in the financial system. When people began to trust that banks were safe again, the economy slowly recovered.