The hottest Fiscal policy Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top World Politics Topics

Best of Economic Forces: 2025 Edition

Economic Forces • 4 implied HN points • 26 Dec 25
💰 Finance Fiscal policy
  1. Tariffs and trade policy were a major theme, with historical context and ongoing policy developments analyzed and questioned.
  2. Core economic ideas like price theory and GDP measurement were emphasized and defended against political distortion.
  3. Readers favored a mix of clear, accessible pieces: explanations of academic news, practical teaching advice, and policy deep-dives on topics like land taxes and dollar dominance.

BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-03-09 Sa

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 169 implied HN points • 10 Mar 24
🌍 World Politics Fiscal policy
  1. Brexit has resulted in significant economic damage for the UK, with 4% reduction in potential productivity alone
  2. UK's economic performance has been dire, requiring investments in infrastructure, people, and systems to recover
  3. Challenges with media integrity are highlighted, showcasing the importance of unbiased reporting and journalism ethics

The anaconda tightens its grip

O Observador de Corcyra • 39 implied HN points • 14 Nov 23
🌍 World Politics Fiscal policy
  1. The tax reform bill in Brazil consolidates multiple indirect taxes into two main taxes with a high estimated rate.
  2. The reform eliminates the states' fiscal autonomy and introduces a Regional Development Fund funded by taxpayer resources.
  3. The approved reform intensifies resource transfer from richer to poorer states, solidifying a system that benefits certain regions.

Will "Efficiency" Fix the Budget?

The Last Bear Standing • 74 implied HN points • 15 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Fiscal policy
  1. The U.S. federal budget has big structural problems, like an aging population and increasing debt, making it hard to balance spending and revenue.
  2. Most of the budget goes to a few major areas like Social Security and healthcare, which are expected to grow, so simply cutting discretionary spending won't solve the deficit issue.
  3. Fixing these budget problems requires more than just efficiency cuts; it needs serious changes in laws and policies that are hard to achieve without widespread agreement.

Accidentally testing NGDP level targeting

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 126 implied HN points • 06 Feb 24
💰 Finance Fiscal policy
  1. Accidentally testing market monetarism, particularly nominal GDP targeting, yielded successful results during economic shocks.
  2. Nominal GDP targeting can help stabilize the business cycle by allowing for counter-cyclical inflation and smoothing disruptions in nominal incomes.
  3. Adopting nominal GDP level targeting could lead to improved productivity and reduced reliance on interest rates in monetary policy discussions.
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Lessons for today’s investors from the UK in the 1970s

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 10 Dec 25
💰 Finance Fiscal policy
  1. Cost-push shocks like big commodity price jumps can become long-lasting inflation when governments boost wages and spending while central banks keep rates too low.
  2. Large fiscal deficits or tax cuts can create a short-term growth 'sugar rush' but risk reigniting inflation later if monetary policy is pressured to stay easy.
  3. Fiscal and monetary coordination is crucial: when fiscal policy is expansionary the central bank must act to anchor inflation expectations or inflation will remain elevated.

Shen Jianguang on Five Major Misunderstandings of China’s Fiscal Stimulus Package

Pekingnology • 52 implied HN points • 15 Nov 24
💰 Finance Fiscal policy
  1. The fiscal stimulus package in China is larger than it seems. It includes various measures that could lead to significant economic support, potentially amounting to 20% of the GDP.
  2. Debt replacement efforts will not only improve local government finances but also allow for more government spending. This shift can help stimulate the economy by boosting aggregate demand.
  3. The package aims to help local governments, which can indirectly benefit businesses and households too. Increased spending can stimulate consumption and support recovery in multiple sectors.

A glimpse into the ongoing "zero-based budgeting" fiscal reform in Anhui

Pekingnology • 49 implied HN points • 20 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Fiscal policy
  1. Zero-based budgeting in Anhui means starting from zero each year rather than using last year's budget as a base. This change helps focus on the actual needs and priorities of programs.
  2. During the budgeting process, Anhui discovered many overlapping policies and wasteful spending practices. This shows there was a lack of coordination between different departments.
  3. The reform aims to reduce ineffective spending and improve efficiency, which includes cutting unnecessary policies and reallocating funds to areas that need it the most.

It’s budget day in the UK

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 26 Nov 25
💰 Finance Fiscal policy
  1. Changes in tax rates usually don’t alter long‑run economic growth and have little effect on equity market returns, so don’t buy or sell stocks just because taxes go up or down.
  2. Fiscal multipliers vary a lot: the OBR uses a tax multiplier of about 0.33 in year one, a capital investment multiplier of about 1.0, a regular (RDEL) multiplier of 0.34, and a welfare (AME) multiplier of about 0.6.
  3. What the government spends tax revenues on matters more than the tax increase itself — funding capital investment boosts GDP substantially, funding routine public services does little for growth, and cutting welfare to invest only yields a small net gain.

The Efficacy and Constitutionality of the Debt Ceiling

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 22 implied HN points • 23 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Fiscal policy
  1. The debt ceiling doesn't really help control government spending. Instead of a strict limit, we should look at reviewing and approving spending more carefully.
  2. There's a belief that the Constitution may not allow for default on public debt. So, some argue that the president could ignore the debt ceiling if Congress keeps spending money.
  3. Many experts think that the repeated struggle over the debt ceiling does more harm than good for the economy and suggest it's time to get rid of it altogether.

Fox in the Henhouse

The Last Bear Standing • 26 implied HN points • 25 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Fiscal policy
  1. A pro-Bitcoin president could change the way the U.S. handles cryptocurrencies, making them more mainstream. This might affect financial markets and how people think about money.
  2. Trump's support for Bitcoin is seen as significant, especially compared to other global leaders who are less supportive. His promise to create a National Strategic Bitcoin Stockpile has caught attention.
  3. The potential rise of Bitcoin could impact economic issues like wealth distribution and government spending. If a major country like the U.S. takes Bitcoin seriously, it can reshape the global financial landscape.

China's Premier just consulted these economists. What's their view on the economy?

Pekingnology • 67 implied HN points • 08 Jul 23
🌍 World Politics Fiscal policy
  1. Economists discussed the challenges in China's economy and emphasized the need for strong fiscal and monetary policies with institutional reforms.
  2. There is a call for active participation in global digital economic and trade agreements, establishment of open capital markets, and alignment with international provisions.
  3. Encouraging innovation in the financial market requires a tolerant approach to failure, role of long-term institutional investors, less frequent information disclosure, open capital markets, and stable macro policy orientation.

Growth Is Up. So What's Up With the Economy?

Gideon's Substack • 19 implied HN points • 26 Oct 23
💼 Business Fiscal policy
  1. The American economy is performing exceptionally well post-pandemic, surpassing other developed countries.
  2. There is a notable disconnect between people's perceptions of the economy and the actual economic data, leading to various theories and concerns.
  3. Factors such as the pandemic hangover, inflation, wage discrepancies, and fiscal uncertainties contribute to the complex economic landscape, influencing consumer sentiment and political outcomes.

Philosophical economics: The golden calf of business and finance

Klement on Investing • 5 implied HN points • 23 Jan 25
💰 Finance Fiscal policy
  1. Cutting taxes isn't always the best option for improving the economy. Sometimes, raising taxes can actually help fund important things like infrastructure and education.
  2. There's a lot of disagreement about whether low taxes lead to higher profits and growth. In reality, many developed countries show no clear link between tax rates and economic growth.
  3. It's important to consider how tax money is spent. If governments invest in useful projects, they can create more value than just cutting taxes.

US fiscal folly could create big, beautiful debt spiral

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 04 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Fiscal policy
  1. The new US tax and spending bill will increase the country's deficit by over $3 trillion in the next ten years. This could lead to serious long-term financial issues.
  2. Continuing on the current debt path might spiral into a situation that threatens the independence of the Federal Reserve.
  3. The Congressional Budget Office's debt projections might actually be underestimating the impact of the new spending bill on US debt compared to GDP.

Exactly how damaging is fiscal policy uncertainty?

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 18 Jun 25
💰 Finance Fiscal policy
  1. Fiscal policy uncertainty can harm economic activity by making businesses hesitant to invest. When companies can't predict future costs or regulations, they cut back on spending and projects.
  2. Research shows that a small increase in fiscal policy uncertainty can lead to significant slowdowns in industrial production and stock market performance. This lingering uncertainty can last for months and hurt overall growth.
  3. Increased uncertainty can also raise the borrowing costs for governments. Higher interest payments can lead to billions more in expenses, which can impact public services and budgets.

Fiscal reaction to interest rate changes

Klement on Investing • 1 implied HN point • 10 Jul 25
💰 Finance Fiscal policy
  1. German politicians are more open to increasing debt-financed spending than many people think. They often pay for higher interest costs by issuing new debt.
  2. When faced with rising debt expenses, German officials prefer to cut planned government spending rather than reduce existing programs or raise taxes.
  3. The idea of creating 'blue bonds' in the EU, which could help finance spending and improve productivity, may gain acceptance in Germany despite past resistance to debt.

This is not what I normally do here…

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 12 Mar 24
💰 Finance Fiscal policy
  1. Focus on empirical observations and data, rather than theoretical predictions, but sometimes theories need to be explored too.
  2. Countries with higher inflation rates tend to see their currencies depreciate over time, while carry tend to work in the short term with interest rate differentials.
  3. Aside from interest rates, fiscal policy can start to influence exchange rates, especially when countries aggressively reduce their deficits. This could potentially lead to a stronger Euro and Sterling against a weaker US Dollar.

This is a binding decision, until it isn't

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 16 Mar 12
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Fiscal policy
  1. It’s really tough for politicians to make long-term plans when those plans require short-term sacrifices. People often want quick benefits, which makes it hard to stick to long-term goals.
  2. Legislators can't create laws that limit future laws, which makes it hard to bind future decisions. Any new law can change or undo past laws, making long-term commitments challenging.
  3. The best way to ensure stability might involve giving more power to the executive branch instead of the legislature. But politicians are usually reluctant to give up their power.

Swinging on America's J-Curve

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 04 Jun 10
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Fiscal policy
  1. America's political problems stem from a J-Curve, where you need to accept short-term pain for long-term gain. It's hard for democracy to handle this because people often don't want to suffer now for a better future.
  2. Politicians often avoid talking about tough issues like tax increases or spending cuts because they fear losing their jobs. Voters typically favor immediate benefits, so politicians give them what they want.
  3. To solve America's fiscal issues, we need to make some tough choices: cut military spending, reduce entitlements, or raise taxes. There aren’t easy, painless solutions, and ignoring the problem won't make it go away.

Macro Thinker: Lawrence Summers on Trump and The Fed

The Octavian Report • 0 implied HN points • 23 Dec 25
💰 Finance Fiscal policy
  1. The Fed is tightening too much too quickly; policymakers should allow a mild overshoot of the 2% inflation target and seriously consider new frameworks like a higher inflation target or nominal GDP targeting.
  2. The biggest macro risk is a coming recession when monetary policy may have little room to cut rates and fiscal authorities might be unwilling to act, so governments and central banks should prepare now.
  3. Crises often require government-led spending and borrowing to restore confidence, and at the same time waning trust in experts and growing speech intolerance on campuses threaten open debate and sound policymaking.