The hottest Fiscal policy Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top World Politics Topics

Gold & Silver: A Volatile Day, Not a Broken Thesis

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 47 implied HN points • 31 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Fiscal policy
  1. A single sharp down day is normal volatility and doesn’t mean the long-term bullish case for gold and silver is broken.
  2. Large fiscal deficits and heavy Treasury issuance limit how long the Fed can stay hawkish, which tends to push real rates lower and support precious metals over time.
  3. The U.S. external financing imbalance and a softer dollar add structural support for metals, but crowded trades can unwind quickly so expect two-way volatility.

"Absolute Train Wreck": US Adds $481 Billion In Debt In 3 Months

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 31 implied HN points • 10 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Fiscal policy
  1. The government has sharply increased borrowing, adding hundreds of billions in a few months and sustaining a new norm of over $2 trillion per year; at that pace the debt could grow by about $10 trillion every four years.
  2. Annual interest payments have topped $1 trillion and are set to rise, driven by large amounts of notes (2–10 year maturities) and a shorter average debt maturity that forces more frequent rollovers.
  3. This combination of rising debt and interest costs looks fiscally unsustainable and could force the Fed or Treasury into interventions that would weaken confidence and strain markets.

Top Links 825 Central bank independence in historical context. Where the robots are. Carbon technocracy & the psychoanalytic view of the good life.

Chartbook • 572 implied HN points • 10 Aug 25
đź’° Finance Fiscal policy
  1. Central bank independence has a rich history and context, showing how it evolved over time.
  2. There are significant discussions about technology and automation, especially regarding how robots impact jobs and society.
  3. The conversation around carbon management and our understanding of a good life reflects deeper psychoanalytic views on our values.

The True Price For An Ounce of Gold: $20,275?

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 36 implied HN points • 03 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Fiscal policy
  1. If you divide the monetary base by Treasury gold holdings you get a "Gold Coverage Price" — using October 2025 numbers that comes to about $20,275 per ounce.
  2. The monetary base has ballooned while Treasury gold holdings have stagnated or fallen, so the implied gold price has risen sharply and would imply a large devaluation of the dollar if redemption were resumed.
  3. Making the dollar fully redeemable in gold would force fiscal discipline because new money couldn’t be created without more gold, but if markets doubted the switch a loss of confidence could trigger a crisis.
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Banfield on the Hyperbole of Urban Bankruptcy

Bet On It • 135 implied HN points • 28 Nov 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Fiscal policy
  1. Politicians often exaggerate city budget crises to gain credit or shift blame, rather than because the city is truly insolvent.
  2. When leaders claim a city "must" get state or federal aid, it usually means local taxpayers prefer not to pay or hope others will, not that paying would force people into poverty or be impossible.
  3. If people aren't willing to pay to fix a problem, it's probably not truly critical, and governments still have options like austerity or tapping unused tax bases (for example, taxing unimproved land) instead of declaring bankruptcy.

Federal Government Spending $20,474 Per Person, 98 Times More than in 1916

OpenTheBooks Substack • 108 implied HN points • 10 Dec 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Fiscal policy
  1. Federal spending per person hit about $20,474 in 2025, roughly 98 times the inflation‑adjusted per‑person spending in 1916, and now amounts to nearly a whole four‑person household's pre‑tax income.
  2. Spending has trended steadily upward for a century with big spikes during crises like World War II, the 2008 mortgage crisis, and COVID, and it hasn’t returned to prior lows after those shocks.
  3. Most recent growth is driven by Social Security, Medicare/Medicaid, rising interest costs, and large deficits that require heavy borrowing, so taxpayers face higher obligations and need more transparency and accountability.

Justin Yifu Lin warns U.S. AI bubble will burst in 5 years, causing another international crisis

Pekingnology • 120 implied HN points • 07 Dec 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Fiscal policy
  1. Experts believe the AI boom in the U.S. could lead to a financial crisis, similar to what happened in 2008. If the AI bubble bursts, it could have a big impact on the global economy.
  2. China is encouraged to change its economic policies to boost growth. By investing more in technology and infrastructure, China can improve its economy and overcome challenges from the U.S.
  3. Some common beliefs about China's slow growth, like blaming state-owned companies or an aging population, are seen as misunderstandings. The real issues are weak global demand and restrictive technology access from the U.S.

Top Links 826 How markets learned to love the trade war. How fiscal policy loses its discretionary scope & the global peanut butter rankings.

Chartbook • 386 implied HN points • 11 Aug 25
đź’° Finance Fiscal policy
  1. Markets are adjusting to trade wars, often responding differently than expected. This means they may not react with fear or panic as they once did.
  2. Fiscal policy is becoming less flexible, which might impact how governments can respond to economic issues. This change can limit their ability to take quick actions.
  3. Interestingly, there’s a discussion comparing global peanut butter rankings. It shows how even simple items can spark interesting debates about economies.

Abundists Should Hedge Their Bets

Abstraction • 24 implied HN points • 05 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Fiscal policy
  1. Housing supply reforms are the right long-term fix but they act slowly and invisibly, so voters may not notice benefits or may even blame reforms for short-term price or value changes.
  2. Remote work immediately unlocks a large 'shadow' housing supply by letting people move to cheaper places, which lowers competition for city housing and gives families quick, tangible time and cost relief.
  3. Cities are pushing return-to-office to protect municipal revenues, which harms families with long commutes, so defending remote work is a practical, pro-family political strategy that buys time for slower housing reforms.

Macroeconomics: Some Defects

In My Tribe • 486 implied HN points • 29 May 25
đź’° Finance Fiscal policy
  1. Macroeconomics often treats the economy like a simple factory that can be controlled centrally, but the reality is much more complex with many different goods and services. It's not just about one measure like GDP.
  2. Many economics students learn about macro without understanding the important role banks play in the economy. Banks help manage risks and their crises can lead to major economic downturns.
  3. Macroeconomic theories are often presented as timeless, but they should consider historical changes and events that shape the economy. Each economic crisis is unique and influenced by different circumstances over time.

Levelling up my MMT (Part 1)

Altered States of Monetary Consciousness • 99 implied HN points • 18 Nov 25
đź’° Finance Fiscal policy
  1. The piece emphasizes deepening practical and conceptual understanding of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) to 'level up' how the idea is used.
  2. It reflects on the tension between technocratic, expert-driven knowledge and democratic, public-facing uses of knowledge, and why that difference matters for policy.
  3. The write-up is presented as the first part of a paid, subscriber-focused series, signalling an ongoing, deliberate exploration rather than a one-off note.

The US Must Return To A Gold Standard

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 25 implied HN points • 26 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Fiscal policy
  1. The dollar has been heavily debased over time because the government and the Fed keep creating money, which erodes purchasing power and risks a currency collapse.
  2. Reinstating a gold standard—by promising future redeemability of dollars for gold at the market price and never suspending that promise—would force strict monetary discipline.
  3. Without a hard money anchor like gold, politicians will keep hiding the real costs of spending and war through inflation, so only a gold-based system can deliver lasting monetary stability.

The “Sell America” Trade Isn’t A One-Off

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 26 implied HN points • 23 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Fiscal policy
  1. Foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries is weakening at the same time U.S. deficits are growing, driven by Japan’s rate normalization, higher European borrowing, and less Chinese dollar recycling. That mix points to a weaker dollar, higher long-term yields, and more reliance on policy support for the Treasury market.
  2. Geopolitical and trade shocks can quickly trigger a "Sell America" trade where stocks, Treasuries, and the dollar all fall together, because foreign holders can and will reprice political risk and divest U.S. assets. Even small divestments by big foreign investors signal that demand for Treasuries is a choice, not an automatic safe-haven.
  3. Because concentration risk in U.S. bonds is rising, investors should diversify into foreign stocks and bonds and consider physical gold for balance-sheet protection. The Fed's recent reserve-management purchases of T-bills show the market may be becoming increasingly dependent on central-bank support rather than organic global demand.

Chartbook 346: Against overcorrection. Yellen's Treasury defends the legacy of Democratic fiscal policy.

Chartbook • 815 implied HN points • 17 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Fiscal policy
  1. When a political party loses, there’s a temptation to rethink past policies. Critics may blame inflation on spending decisions, but the Democrats didn't do as poorly as expected in recent elections.
  2. Inflation feels different depending on your political views. Partisanship affects how people perceive the economy, making it hard to pin down economic sentiment just to inflation rates.
  3. Despite losing to Trump, the Democratic fiscal policies in recent years were effective. Inflation rates have fallen and job numbers have remained strong, suggesting that bold policy decisions can be successful.

Survival - for now

Comment is Freed • 76 implied HN points • 27 Nov 25
đź’° Finance Fiscal policy
  1. The budget was a survival-first choice: ministers avoided big political risks and didn’t raise earned income tax, relying instead on smaller, targeted tax changes and fiscal creep.
  2. That approach buys short-term stability — a relatively kind OBR forecast and targeted moves (like ending the two-child benefit limit) should prevent market panic and help keep poll ratings steady.
  3. But it mostly defers hard problems: weaker productivity, higher welfare and debt costs, and postponed reforms mean bigger fiscal risks and tougher choices are likely to come back later.

An illustration of the high cost of low state (fiscal) capacity in Liberia

An Africanist Perspective • 494 implied HN points • 28 Apr 23
🌍 World Politics Fiscal policy
  1. The high cost of low state capacity in Liberia impacts public services and infrastructure, highlighting the need for economic growth over only focusing on governance and corruption.
  2. Poverty in Liberia severely limits the government's fiscal capacity, affecting its ability to provide public goods and services. The country's annual budget per capita is significantly lower than other regions, making it challenging to maintain essential services.
  3. The US Ambassador to Liberia pointed out significant mismanagement of funds in critical sectors like healthcare and education. This points to a need for better spending of allocated funds and an improvement in service delivery to benefit the citizens.

How the national debt will play out

In My Tribe • 774 implied HN points • 21 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Fiscal policy
  1. Ignoring the national debt can lead to a sudden financial crisis. When people lose confidence, the government might face high interest rates quickly.
  2. Government spending is heavily tied to mandatory benefits like Social Security and Medicare, meaning cuts alone might not solve the debt issue. A lot of tax revenue will go just to paying interest on the debt.
  3. If a crisis happens, it could create intense political conflict over cuts to benefits, increased taxes, and how to handle debt. A balanced budget amendment could help avoid this but may be too late now.

Elon is out. Excessive spending is not.

OpenTheBooks Substack • 197 implied HN points • 28 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Fiscal policy
  1. Change in government spending is possible with today's technology. We can find and track wasted taxpayer dollars.
  2. Many Americans want more accountability from the government. They were upset about the waste exposed by DOGE.
  3. Making real change is tough because some politicians want to keep things as they are. But it's important to keep pushing for transparency.

Cutting Interest Rates Isn’t a Cure‑All for the Economy

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 18 implied HN points • 12 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Fiscal policy
  1. Cutting interest rates only creates a temporary boom with fake job gains and malinvestment that leads to a deeper bust later.
  2. A real recovery needs market‑driven interest rates, sound money, and fiscal restraint so savings and investment can realign properly.
  3. Labor-market problems are worsened by wage rigidities and regulations, so letting wages adjust and removing hiring barriers helps jobs recover.

Top Links 600 Fiscal battles in the Trump camp. Could Hong Kong form the hub of an offshore dollar system? Writing the 18th.

Chartbook • 457 implied HN points • 27 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Fiscal policy
  1. There are ongoing debates about the future of tax and debt policies within the Trump campaign. Some people think there's no need to worry about the US debt due to the dollar's strong position.
  2. There's talk about Hong Kong possibly becoming a center for offshore dollar transactions. This could change how the dollar is used globally.
  3. The discussions reflect larger economic trends and concerns that could impact both the US and global financial systems.

The Continental Bait-and-Switch

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 23 implied HN points • 26 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Fiscal policy
  1. Continentals were accepted at first because people believed they could be redeemed for gold or silver, so the paper acted like a claim to real money.
  2. But leaders kept printing Continentals, broke the redemption promise, and used price controls and legal tender laws to force acceptance, which caused severe inflation and effectively cheated people in a bait-and-switch.
  3. This episode shows paper money’s value often rests on expectations of specie redemption, not just on taxes or legal coercion, so a government declaration alone may not create lasting monetary value.

Interdependent Nation

Lewis Enterprises • 294 implied HN points • 04 Jun 23
🌍 World Politics Fiscal policy
  1. Excessive levels of debt in government and private sectors impact policies.
  2. Felix Rohatyn's warnings from 1989 on economic dependence are relevant today.
  3. The uncertainty post-Cold War era on the world's future organization and the role of the US.

House passes the Biden-McCarthy debt limit/spending bill

Speaking Security • 275 implied HN points • 01 Jun 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Fiscal policy
  1. The House passed the Biden-McCarthy debt limit/spending bill with a 314 to 117 vote.
  2. The bill places strict limits on discretionary budget spending, giving less money to non-military initiatives and more to the Pentagon.
  3. The Biden-McCarthy bill reflects a bipartisan consensus to prioritize military spending over other areas, with the Pentagon receiving a record-setting budget while other sectors face cuts.

The Return Of Quantitative Easing

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 23 implied HN points • 22 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Fiscal policy
  1. The Fed has stopped shrinking its balance sheet and is restarting quantitative easing to keep reserves ample and preserve policy flexibility.
  2. Huge Treasury deficits and political pressure have pushed up demand for reserves, so the Fed is buying assets to ease policy without formally cutting the federal funds rate.
  3. Restarting QE will help lower government borrowing costs and reduce the Fed’s interest bill, but it risks higher inflation and may look like capitulation to political pressure.

Top Links 571 Trump's fiscal shock. The Latino working-class. The Mozambique tuna fishing fleet is for sale.

Chartbook • 386 implied HN points • 25 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Fiscal policy
  1. Trump's fiscal policies could have a significant impact, leading to major financial changes. It's important to think about what these changes could mean for the economy.
  2. The Latino working class plays a key role in shaping economic trends and discussions today. Understanding their perspectives can help in finding better policies.
  3. There are interesting developments in unexpected areas like the Mozambique tuna fishing fleet. This shows that global events can affect local economies in surprising ways.

Five Decades Of Currency Rot: Lyn Alden

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 26 implied HN points • 05 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Fiscal policy
  1. Currency debasement is a long-running, multi-decade trend that accelerated after currencies were decoupled from gold, and it has generally boosted asset prices and favored people who own assets over those who rely mainly on labor.
  2. The real pain for savers comes from interest-adjusted debasement — when money supply grows faster than bond yields, bondholders lose purchasing power, as seen in the big debasement spikes around 2020–21.
  3. The era of steadily falling long-term interest rates is likely over, so debasement may continue but with a weaker tailwind for valuations; bonds may still lose value in real terms but not as rapidly, and investors should expect different relative performance across stocks, gold, crypto, and housing.

Top Links 610 China's procyclical fiscal. Whole Foods v. Trader Joe's. Pakistan's surprise rally & chess dominance.

Chartbook • 286 implied HN points • 06 Jan 25
đź’° Finance Fiscal policy
  1. China's fiscal policy has become procyclical, which means it is tightening when the economy needs support. This could actively hinder economic recovery in challenging times.
  2. Whole Foods and Trader Joe's represent contrasting business models, with Whole Foods focusing on premium offerings and Trader Joe's emphasizing value and unique products. This highlights different consumer preferences in grocery shopping.
  3. Pakistan experienced an unexpected rally, demonstrating resilience in its economy, alongside notable achievements in chess. This showcases the potential for growth and excellence in different fields, even in difficult circumstances.

Financial Bubbles: How They Make Us Poorer

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 17 implied HN points • 23 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Fiscal policy
  1. When central banks pump money and push down interest rates, cheap credit funds projects that wouldn’t be viable under normal market conditions, creating malinvestment and financial bubbles.
  2. Those bubble activities are unsustainable and tend to collapse when money supply growth or cheap lending falls, causing boom–bust cycles, distorted prices, and economic harm.
  3. The cure is to stop monetary meddling and cut government spending so investment reflects real savings and consumer demand; simple tax swaps won’t fix the problem if overall spending keeps rising.

The Affordability Equation

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 20 implied HN points • 06 Dec 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Fiscal policy
  1. How affordable a good is depends on how much output each hour of labor produces (labor productivity) multiplied by a discount factor that reflects time preferences and production delays, so higher productivity and faster production make things cheaper in labor-hours.
  2. Affordability rises when labor becomes more productive — through better technology, skills, more capital and natural resources, or a smaller labor supply — and when people save more so investment can finance longer production processes.
  3. Government actions like taxes, large spending, regulation, and state-run production tend to reduce affordability by lowering wages, discouraging investment, bidding up prices, and misallocating resources, so cutting taxes/spending and removing restrictions is presented as the way to improve affordability.

The Fed Doesn’t Determine the Price of Credit; Markets Do

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 16 implied HN points • 25 Nov 25
đź’° Finance Fiscal policy
  1. The Federal Reserve doesn't control credit prices; they are determined by the market's supply and demand. This means that even if the Fed sets interest rates, actual market rates can be higher or lower based on financial conditions.
  2. Recent events in the repo market show that when the government's borrowing increases, it can lead to tighter liquidity in banks, affecting interest rates. This reveals the limits of the Fed's ability to manage short-term capital markets.
  3. To create a strong monetary system, it's important for central banks to recognize their limits and focus on stabilizing money value. Interest rates should be left to the market, not manipulated by policymakers.

First Principles of Fiscal Policy, with Some of Their Practical Applications

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 123 implied HN points • 22 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Fiscal policy
  1. The Federal Reserve's approach in the 2020s, which involved acting quickly, turned out to be effective. Many people are thankful for the leadership during this time.
  2. Inflation in the early 2020s might not have been bad because it helped avoid a deeper recession and led to a better economy in some ways.
  3. Voters who understood the economy generally supported Democrats, while those who were confused tended to back Republicans. This shows how informed opinions can influence political choices.

The path to a new sovereign accounting

Gray Mirror • 35 implied HN points • 03 Aug 25
đź’° Finance Fiscal policy
  1. Complex financial systems often hide the reality of the economy. When things are complicated, it can be hard to see the true state of finances.
  2. Merging the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve could simplify how the government manages money. This change would make it clearer that they are part of the same system.
  3. The money supply is being diluted to support the economy, not just through jobs. This means our financial stability relies on printing more money, impacting everyone differently.

HOISTED FROM THE ARCHIVES: I Don't Fully Buy Stiglitz's Argument That Our Macro Problems Have Deep Structural Roots. But I Do See Its Coherence

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 7 implied HN points • 09 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Fiscal policy
  1. Rapid productivity-driven decline in a large sector can cut incomes, reduce both consumption and investment, and create a persistent aggregate demand shortfall that monetary policy may struggle to fix at the zero lower bound.
  2. Policy options include engineering expected inflation to lower real rates, using government loan or bank guarantees to shift risk and spur investment, or running large-scale public borrowing and spending to restore jobs and restructure the economy; some argue massive public investment is the most reliable route.
  3. Economists split on framing the problem — focusing on the savings-investment flow versus money supply and velocity — and resolving the crisis probably requires combining both perspectives.

Debt-Ceiling Theater Masks True Depth of DC's Red Ink

Stark Realities with Brian McGlinchey • 452 implied HN points • 01 Jun 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Fiscal policy
  1. Americans are misled about the true depth of the government's financial disorder.
  2. The federal government's actual liabilities are far higher than the reported national debt figures.
  3. Understanding the true national debt would lead to questioning unsustainable social benefits, costly foreign interventions, and big-spending proposals.

Can the West Avoid Fiscal Armageddon?

European Straits • 8 implied HN points • 24 Nov 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Fiscal policy
  1. Governments can borrow money in ways that businesses can't. They have the ability to raise taxes and keep going even if they have a lot of debt, as long as the economy grows.
  2. After World War II, countries like the US and UK borrowed heavily but turned that debt into growth, creating jobs and boosting the economy. This shows that high debt can lead to positive results if handled correctly.
  3. Cutting government spending to reduce debt can actually hurt the economy more. Reducing spending might seem responsible, but it can lead to higher unemployment and slower growth.

CROSSPOST/HOISTED: Larry Summers from 2022 on the "Polycrisis"

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 84 implied HN points • 16 Jan 25
đź’° Finance Fiscal policy
  1. The global economy is facing a 'polycrisis,' which means there are many problems at once, like inflation, energy issues, and conflicts affecting different regions.
  2. Inflation is a big concern, and controlling it might require tough decisions like raising interest rates, which could lead to higher unemployment but is seen as necessary for stability.
  3. The situation in the UK shows how quickly financial stability can turn into chaos from bad policy, highlighting the importance of credibility and wise fiscal management.

Strange books on the internet distributing words are no basis for a system of finance

featherlessbipeds • 58 implied HN points • 03 Aug 23
đź’° Finance Fiscal policy
  1. The book 'The Dollar Endgame' argues that the US Dollar's reserve currency status leads to increasing demand for USD denominated assets like government debt.
  2. The book presents definitions of economic terms like inflation, central banks, and monetary policy, but these definitions are criticized for being inaccurate or misleading.
  3. Fiscal and monetary policies are meant to be somewhat independent but coordinated to prevent economic mismanagement.

Our Empire Is Collapsing

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 25 implied HN points • 21 Jul 25
đź’° Finance Fiscal policy
  1. There is a belief that a 'crack up boom' is coming, indicating a huge market change is on the way. It's seen as an unavoidable shift as the economy struggles.
  2. The U.S. stock market is showing surprising resilience, continuing to rise despite political and economic chaos. Investors are buying the dips, showing a strong belief in the market.
  3. There are significant fiscal challenges due to government spending habits, increasing the likelihood of inflation and monetary issues over the long term. The current spending trajectory isn't sustainable.