The hottest Fiscal policy Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top World Politics Topics

Elon is out. Excessive spending is not.

OpenTheBooks Substack • 190 implied HN points • 28 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Government Accountability Spending Transparency Fiscal policy
  1. Change in government spending is possible with today's technology. We can find and track wasted taxpayer dollars.
  2. Many Americans want more accountability from the government. They were upset about the waste exposed by DOGE.
  3. Making real change is tough because some politicians want to keep things as they are. But it's important to keep pushing for transparency.

Macroeconomics: Some Defects

In My Tribe • 486 implied HN points • 29 May 25
💰 Finance Macroeconomics Banking Economic Theory Fiscal policy Financial Sector
  1. Macroeconomics often treats the economy like a simple factory that can be controlled centrally, but the reality is much more complex with many different goods and services. It's not just about one measure like GDP.
  2. Many economics students learn about macro without understanding the important role banks play in the economy. Banks help manage risks and their crises can lead to major economic downturns.
  3. Macroeconomic theories are often presented as timeless, but they should consider historical changes and events that shape the economy. Each economic crisis is unique and influenced by different circumstances over time.

Solving America's Debt Crisis

Contemplations on the Tree of Woe • 2194 implied HN points • 07 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Debt crisis Fiscal policy Monetary Policy Government spending
  1. The U.S. is facing a serious debt crisis, with over $36 trillion in debt. This situation is dangerous and could lead to major economic problems if not addressed soon.
  2. The national debt has grown dramatically due to various factors like wars, tax cuts, and the COVID-19 pandemic. It’s now out of control and not sustainable.
  3. A proposed solution, the Chicago Plan, suggests that the government should only issue money without debt. This could help eliminate most of the national debt and create a more stable economy.

Chartbook 346: Against overcorrection. Yellen's Treasury defends the legacy of Democratic fiscal policy.

Chartbook • 815 implied HN points • 17 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Fiscal policy Elections Partisanship Economic Growth Inflation
  1. When a political party loses, there’s a temptation to rethink past policies. Critics may blame inflation on spending decisions, but the Democrats didn't do as poorly as expected in recent elections.
  2. Inflation feels different depending on your political views. Partisanship affects how people perceive the economy, making it hard to pin down economic sentiment just to inflation rates.
  3. Despite losing to Trump, the Democratic fiscal policies in recent years were effective. Inflation rates have fallen and job numbers have remained strong, suggesting that bold policy decisions can be successful.

Top Links 600 Fiscal battles in the Trump camp. Could Hong Kong form the hub of an offshore dollar system? Writing the 18th.

Chartbook • 457 implied HN points • 27 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political strategy Fiscal policy Economics Debt Management
  1. There are ongoing debates about the future of tax and debt policies within the Trump campaign. Some people think there's no need to worry about the US debt due to the dollar's strong position.
  2. There's talk about Hong Kong possibly becoming a center for offshore dollar transactions. This could change how the dollar is used globally.
  3. The discussions reflect larger economic trends and concerns that could impact both the US and global financial systems.
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How the national debt will play out

In My Tribe • 774 implied HN points • 21 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Debt crisis Government spending Political Conflict Fiscal policy Social Security
  1. Ignoring the national debt can lead to a sudden financial crisis. When people lose confidence, the government might face high interest rates quickly.
  2. Government spending is heavily tied to mandatory benefits like Social Security and Medicare, meaning cuts alone might not solve the debt issue. A lot of tax revenue will go just to paying interest on the debt.
  3. If a crisis happens, it could create intense political conflict over cuts to benefits, increased taxes, and how to handle debt. A balanced budget amendment could help avoid this but may be too late now.

Exactly how damaging is fiscal policy uncertainty?

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 18 Jun 25
💰 Finance Investment Economic Policy Market Trends Government debt Fiscal policy
  1. Fiscal policy uncertainty can harm economic activity by making businesses hesitant to invest. When companies can't predict future costs or regulations, they cut back on spending and projects.
  2. Research shows that a small increase in fiscal policy uncertainty can lead to significant slowdowns in industrial production and stock market performance. This lingering uncertainty can last for months and hurt overall growth.
  3. Increased uncertainty can also raise the borrowing costs for governments. Higher interest payments can lead to billions more in expenses, which can impact public services and budgets.

Top Links 610 China's procyclical fiscal. Whole Foods v. Trader Joe's. Pakistan's surprise rally & chess dominance.

Chartbook • 286 implied HN points • 06 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economics Investing Market Trends Fiscal policy Consumer behavior
  1. China's fiscal policy has become procyclical, which means it is tightening when the economy needs support. This could actively hinder economic recovery in challenging times.
  2. Whole Foods and Trader Joe's represent contrasting business models, with Whole Foods focusing on premium offerings and Trader Joe's emphasizing value and unique products. This highlights different consumer preferences in grocery shopping.
  3. Pakistan experienced an unexpected rally, demonstrating resilience in its economy, alongside notable achievements in chess. This showcases the potential for growth and excellence in different fields, even in difficult circumstances.

Top Links 571 Trump's fiscal shock. The Latino working-class. The Mozambique tuna fishing fleet is for sale.

Chartbook • 386 implied HN points • 25 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Fiscal policy Labor Issues International relations Economic Trends
  1. Trump's fiscal policies could have a significant impact, leading to major financial changes. It's important to think about what these changes could mean for the economy.
  2. The Latino working class plays a key role in shaping economic trends and discussions today. Understanding their perspectives can help in finding better policies.
  3. There are interesting developments in unexpected areas like the Mozambique tuna fishing fleet. This shows that global events can affect local economies in surprising ways.

First Principles of Fiscal Policy, with Some of Their Practical Applications

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 123 implied HN points • 22 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Fiscal policy Monetary Policy Economic strategy Inflation Public Opinion
  1. The Federal Reserve's approach in the 2020s, which involved acting quickly, turned out to be effective. Many people are thankful for the leadership during this time.
  2. Inflation in the early 2020s might not have been bad because it helped avoid a deeper recession and led to a better economy in some ways.
  3. Voters who understood the economy generally supported Democrats, while those who were confused tended to back Republicans. This shows how informed opinions can influence political choices.

An illustration of the high cost of low state (fiscal) capacity in Liberia

An Africanist Perspective • 494 implied HN points • 28 Apr 23
🌍 World Politics State Capacity International relations Fiscal policy Development Corruption
  1. The high cost of low state capacity in Liberia impacts public services and infrastructure, highlighting the need for economic growth over only focusing on governance and corruption.
  2. Poverty in Liberia severely limits the government's fiscal capacity, affecting its ability to provide public goods and services. The country's annual budget per capita is significantly lower than other regions, making it challenging to maintain essential services.
  3. The US Ambassador to Liberia pointed out significant mismanagement of funds in critical sectors like healthcare and education. This points to a need for better spending of allocated funds and an improvement in service delivery to benefit the citizens.

The Efficacy and Constitutionality of the Debt Ceiling

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 22 implied HN points • 23 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Constitutional Law Government spending Fiscal policy Political Discourse
  1. The debt ceiling doesn't really help control government spending. Instead of a strict limit, we should look at reviewing and approving spending more carefully.
  2. There's a belief that the Constitution may not allow for default on public debt. So, some argue that the president could ignore the debt ceiling if Congress keeps spending money.
  3. Many experts think that the repeated struggle over the debt ceiling does more harm than good for the economy and suggest it's time to get rid of it altogether.

CROSSPOST/HOISTED: Larry Summers from 2022 on the "Polycrisis"

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 84 implied HN points • 16 Jan 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Fiscal policy Global Economy Financial Stability Inflation
  1. The global economy is facing a 'polycrisis,' which means there are many problems at once, like inflation, energy issues, and conflicts affecting different regions.
  2. Inflation is a big concern, and controlling it might require tough decisions like raising interest rates, which could lead to higher unemployment but is seen as necessary for stability.
  3. The situation in the UK shows how quickly financial stability can turn into chaos from bad policy, highlighting the importance of credibility and wise fiscal management.

House passes the Biden-McCarthy debt limit/spending bill

Speaking Security • 275 implied HN points • 01 Jun 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Legislation Bipartisanship Fiscal policy Federal Spending Budgeting
  1. The House passed the Biden-McCarthy debt limit/spending bill with a 314 to 117 vote.
  2. The bill places strict limits on discretionary budget spending, giving less money to non-military initiatives and more to the Pentagon.
  3. The Biden-McCarthy bill reflects a bipartisan consensus to prioritize military spending over other areas, with the Pentagon receiving a record-setting budget while other sectors face cuts.

Will "Efficiency" Fix the Budget?

The Last Bear Standing • 74 implied HN points • 15 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Federal Budget Government Efficiency Fiscal policy Social Security Healthcare
  1. The U.S. federal budget has big structural problems, like an aging population and increasing debt, making it hard to balance spending and revenue.
  2. Most of the budget goes to a few major areas like Social Security and healthcare, which are expected to grow, so simply cutting discretionary spending won't solve the deficit issue.
  3. Fixing these budget problems requires more than just efficiency cuts; it needs serious changes in laws and policies that are hard to achieve without widespread agreement.

Shen Jianguang on Five Major Misunderstandings of China’s Fiscal Stimulus Package

Pekingnology • 52 implied HN points • 15 Nov 24
💰 Finance Fiscal policy Debt Management Market Analysis Investment Strategies
  1. The fiscal stimulus package in China is larger than it seems. It includes various measures that could lead to significant economic support, potentially amounting to 20% of the GDP.
  2. Debt replacement efforts will not only improve local government finances but also allow for more government spending. This shift can help stimulate the economy by boosting aggregate demand.
  3. The package aims to help local governments, which can indirectly benefit businesses and households too. Increased spending can stimulate consumption and support recovery in multiple sectors.

Debt-Ceiling Theater Masks True Depth of DC's Red Ink

Stark Realities with Brian McGlinchey • 452 implied HN points • 01 Jun 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Government National Debt Fiscal policy Social programs
  1. Americans are misled about the true depth of the government's financial disorder.
  2. The federal government's actual liabilities are far higher than the reported national debt figures.
  3. Understanding the true national debt would lead to questioning unsustainable social benefits, costly foreign interventions, and big-spending proposals.

Accidentally testing NGDP level targeting

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 126 implied HN points • 06 Feb 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Inflation Fiscal policy
  1. Accidentally testing market monetarism, particularly nominal GDP targeting, yielded successful results during economic shocks.
  2. Nominal GDP targeting can help stabilize the business cycle by allowing for counter-cyclical inflation and smoothing disruptions in nominal incomes.
  3. Adopting nominal GDP level targeting could lead to improved productivity and reduced reliance on interest rates in monetary policy discussions.

A glimpse into the ongoing "zero-based budgeting" fiscal reform in Anhui

Pekingnology • 49 implied HN points • 20 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Fiscal policy Budgeting Government reform Public Administration Economic Policy
  1. Zero-based budgeting in Anhui means starting from zero each year rather than using last year's budget as a base. This change helps focus on the actual needs and priorities of programs.
  2. During the budgeting process, Anhui discovered many overlapping policies and wasteful spending practices. This shows there was a lack of coordination between different departments.
  3. The reform aims to reduce ineffective spending and improve efficiency, which includes cutting unnecessary policies and reallocating funds to areas that need it the most.

BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-03-09 Sa

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 169 implied HN points • 10 Mar 24
🌍 World Politics Brexit Economic Growth Media Government Policy Fiscal policy
  1. Brexit has resulted in significant economic damage for the UK, with 4% reduction in potential productivity alone
  2. UK's economic performance has been dire, requiring investments in infrastructure, people, and systems to recover
  3. Challenges with media integrity are highlighted, showcasing the importance of unbiased reporting and journalism ethics

Strange books on the internet distributing words are no basis for a system of finance

featherlessbipeds • 58 implied HN points • 03 Aug 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Central Banks Inflation Fiscal policy Quantitative Easing
  1. The book 'The Dollar Endgame' argues that the US Dollar's reserve currency status leads to increasing demand for USD denominated assets like government debt.
  2. The book presents definitions of economic terms like inflation, central banks, and monetary policy, but these definitions are criticized for being inaccurate or misleading.
  3. Fiscal and monetary policies are meant to be somewhat independent but coordinated to prevent economic mismanagement.

Fox in the Henhouse

The Last Bear Standing • 26 implied HN points • 25 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Cryptocurrency Government Policy Fiscal policy
  1. A pro-Bitcoin president could change the way the U.S. handles cryptocurrencies, making them more mainstream. This might affect financial markets and how people think about money.
  2. Trump's support for Bitcoin is seen as significant, especially compared to other global leaders who are less supportive. His promise to create a National Strategic Bitcoin Stockpile has caught attention.
  3. The potential rise of Bitcoin could impact economic issues like wealth distribution and government spending. If a major country like the U.S. takes Bitcoin seriously, it can reshape the global financial landscape.

The anaconda tightens its grip

O Observador de Corcyra • 39 implied HN points • 14 Nov 23
🌍 World Politics Tax reform Fiscal policy Resource Allocation
  1. The tax reform bill in Brazil consolidates multiple indirect taxes into two main taxes with a high estimated rate.
  2. The reform eliminates the states' fiscal autonomy and introduces a Regional Development Fund funded by taxpayer resources.
  3. The approved reform intensifies resource transfer from richer to poorer states, solidifying a system that benefits certain regions.

The Stock Market Sits On The Edge Of The End Of The World

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 51 implied HN points • 12 Oct 23
💰 Finance Stock Market Geopolitics Monetary Policy Fiscal policy Global Conflicts
  1. Geopolitical volatility and flawed monetary policy make current times unique and potentially volatile.
  2. Debt levels, monetary policies, and government spending are creating unprecedented financial challenges.
  3. Artificial market boosts, geopolitical tensions, and social unrest are contributing to a fragile economic situation.

Philosophical economics: The golden calf of business and finance

Klement on Investing • 5 implied HN points • 23 Jan 25
💰 Finance Tax policy Economic Growth Fiscal policy Investment Strategies Corporate Finance
  1. Cutting taxes isn't always the best option for improving the economy. Sometimes, raising taxes can actually help fund important things like infrastructure and education.
  2. There's a lot of disagreement about whether low taxes lead to higher profits and growth. In reality, many developed countries show no clear link between tax rates and economic growth.
  3. It's important to consider how tax money is spent. If governments invest in useful projects, they can create more value than just cutting taxes.

China's Premier just consulted these economists. What's their view on the economy?

Pekingnology • 67 implied HN points • 08 Jul 23
🌍 World Politics China Economic Analysis Fiscal policy
  1. Economists discussed the challenges in China's economy and emphasized the need for strong fiscal and monetary policies with institutional reforms.
  2. There is a call for active participation in global digital economic and trade agreements, establishment of open capital markets, and alignment with international provisions.
  3. Encouraging innovation in the financial market requires a tolerant approach to failure, role of long-term institutional investors, less frequent information disclosure, open capital markets, and stable macro policy orientation.

Growth Is Up. So What's Up With the Economy?

Gideon's Substack • 19 implied HN points • 26 Oct 23
💼 Business Economy Inflation Perceptions Data Fiscal policy
  1. The American economy is performing exceptionally well post-pandemic, surpassing other developed countries.
  2. There is a notable disconnect between people's perceptions of the economy and the actual economic data, leading to various theories and concerns.
  3. Factors such as the pandemic hangover, inflation, wage discrepancies, and fiscal uncertainties contribute to the complex economic landscape, influencing consumer sentiment and political outcomes.

This is not what I normally do here…

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 12 Mar 24
💰 Finance Interest Rates Fiscal policy
  1. Focus on empirical observations and data, rather than theoretical predictions, but sometimes theories need to be explored too.
  2. Countries with higher inflation rates tend to see their currencies depreciate over time, while carry tend to work in the short term with interest rate differentials.
  3. Aside from interest rates, fiscal policy can start to influence exchange rates, especially when countries aggressively reduce their deficits. This could potentially lead to a stronger Euro and Sterling against a weaker US Dollar.

This is a binding decision, until it isn't

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 16 Mar 12
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Fiscal policy Long-term Planning
  1. It’s really tough for politicians to make long-term plans when those plans require short-term sacrifices. People often want quick benefits, which makes it hard to stick to long-term goals.
  2. Legislators can't create laws that limit future laws, which makes it hard to bind future decisions. Any new law can change or undo past laws, making long-term commitments challenging.
  3. The best way to ensure stability might involve giving more power to the executive branch instead of the legislature. But politicians are usually reluctant to give up their power.

Swinging on America's J-Curve

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 04 Jun 10
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Fiscal policy Political theory Democracy Public Sentiment Long-term Planning
  1. America's political problems stem from a J-Curve, where you need to accept short-term pain for long-term gain. It's hard for democracy to handle this because people often don't want to suffer now for a better future.
  2. Politicians often avoid talking about tough issues like tax increases or spending cuts because they fear losing their jobs. Voters typically favor immediate benefits, so politicians give them what they want.
  3. To solve America's fiscal issues, we need to make some tough choices: cut military spending, reduce entitlements, or raise taxes. There aren’t easy, painless solutions, and ignoring the problem won't make it go away.