The hottest Housing Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top U.S. Politics Topics

December 2024 Inflation

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 15 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing
  1. December 2024 saw important updates about inflation. This is something people need to keep an eye on for their finances.
  2. There's a focus on housing data, which is crucial as it can greatly affect the economy and people's living situations.
  3. Subscribing to this housing tracker gives access to ongoing insights. This can help people stay informed about market changes.

Another Follow-Up Against Agglomeration

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 105 implied HN points • 14 Mar 24
💰 Finance Housing
  1. The mortgage crackdown post-2008 led to a housing shortage, impacting construction of single-family homes in different cities.
  2. There is a correlation between the drop in construction activity after 2008 and metro area incomes, where lower income areas experienced a greater decline.
  3. Trends suggest housing constraints may lead to higher incomes, impacting new single-family home construction and mortgage lending standards across different cities.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-June 2025

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 09 Jun 25
💼 Business Housing
  1. The spring housing market was not great for new homebuilders, but they still have many completed homes to sell.
  2. There is a significant increase in the number of existing homes available for buyers, making it a better time to find a home.
  3. While home sales are flat compared to last year, prices may drop due to increased inventory, although big drops are unlikely.

November 2024 Erdmann Housing Tracker

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 17 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing
  1. Inflation has been steadily around 2% since July 2022, excluding housing costs. This shows a consistent trend rather than sudden spikes.
  2. The Federal Reserve has managed to control most types of inflation, but rent prices remain outside of their control. This situation creates a misunderstanding about overall inflation levels.
  3. There's a belief that inflation might change direction suddenly, but the speaker sees no reason for that to happen. The last 29 months have shown stability in most areas.
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Peru's new leftist president at UN: Healthcare, education, housing, jobs are rights, must be guaranteed to all

Geopolitical Economy Report • 139 implied HN points • 24 Sep 21
🌍 World Politics Housing
  1. Peru's President Pedro Castillo emphasizes guaranteeing healthcare, education, housing, and jobs as rights to all citizens
  2. He calls for a 'social transformation' to ensure economic and social rights are prioritized alongside civil and political rights
  3. Castillo highlights the importance of protecting the environment, addressing extreme poverty, and reducing inequality

How to choose an apartment

Penelope Trunk's Substack • 19 implied HN points • 09 Dec 23
🏝 Travel Housing
  1. The author shares her personal struggles with managing finances and facing eviction from an expensive apartment.
  2. Despite challenges, the author maintains a sense of humor and self-awareness in dealing with the situation.
  3. The author emphasizes the importance of perspective in decision-making, reflecting on a criteria she used when choosing her apartment.

It's never overbuilding, and that won't change soon.

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 126 implied HN points • 11 Oct 23
💰 Finance Housing
  1. There is a misconception of overbuilding being a significant issue in the housing market.
  2. Historical data shows that construction rates do not have a cyclical effect on supply and demand dynamics.
  3. Low construction and vacancy rates currently contribute to high housing costs, and more housing supply is needed to bring rents down.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.3% Below 2022 Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 03 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing
  1. Inflation-adjusted house prices are now 1.3% lower than their peak in 2022. This means homes cost less when you account for inflation.
  2. Real house prices, which consider the effects of inflation, are still quite high compared to the past. They are about 11% above the peak during the housing bubble in 2006.
  3. The price-to-rent ratio is also lower than its peak. This suggests that buying homes may be more favorable compared to renting right now.

Preliminary 2025 Housing Forecasts

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 22 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing
  1. Housing prices are expected to rise a little in 2025, but not by much. People think the increase will be in the low to mid single digits.
  2. Sales of new and existing homes are predicted to go up next year. However, existing home sales will likely stay around four million.
  3. The construction of multi-family homes is not expected to improve in 2025. Builders are generally cautious about starting new multi-family projects.

Lawler: New Census Population Estimates Show Massively Higher Population Growth

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 24 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing
  1. The new Census estimates show that the U.S. population is growing much faster than before. This growth is mainly due to better counting of international migrants.
  2. Population growth from 2021 to 2024 is estimated to be over 3 million more than previous estimates. Most of this increase comes from net international migration.
  3. Revised population numbers can affect employment surveys, meaning we might see significant updates when the numbers are adjusted next year.

4th Look at Local Housing Markets in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 23 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing
  1. Some local housing markets are seeing quicker inventory recovery than sales, especially in states like Florida and Texas. This may lead to rising home prices.
  2. December is showing a year-over-year increase in home sales for the third month in a row. This trend might indicate a recovering housing market.
  3. Regional differences in the housing market are important to watch. Understanding these differences can help buyers and sellers make better decisions.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 21 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing
  1. California home sales increased by about 19.8% compared to last year in December. This shows a strong recovery in the housing market.
  2. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) expects the existing home sales report for December to reflect ongoing growth. This will mark the third month of year-over-year increases in home sales.
  3. There’s a general positive trend in the housing market after months of decline. It's a sign that more people are starting to buy homes again.

Dub Housing

Kneeling Bus • 156 implied HN points • 17 Feb 23
🎭️ Culture Housing
  1. Housing shortages are common in desirable areas like Lake Tahoe due to a surplus of people and limited housing supply.
  2. The demand for housing in luxury tourist destinations can outstrip supply, turning basic human needs into luxury goods.
  3. There is a growing need to balance market forces with regulatory incentives to ensure fair resource allocation in areas like Lake Tahoe.

Housing Starts Decreased to 1.311 million Annual Rate in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 19 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing
  1. Housing starts in October dropped to 1.311 million, which is lower than both September and October of last year. This shows a continued decrease in new home construction.
  2. Single-family housing starts also fell by about 6.9% compared to the previous month, suggesting potential challenges in the market for individual homes.
  3. Multi-family housing starts saw a trend of weakness over the past year, indicating it may be harder to get those types of buildings underway, while single-family starts have been improving recently.

Forecast: Multifamily Starts will Decline Sharply

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 105 implied HN points • 25 Aug 23
💰 Finance Housing
  1. Due to household formation slowing down, multifamily starts are expected to decrease significantly.
  2. Freddie Mac reports that multifamily delinquencies have tripled year-over-year, indicating a potential decline in multifamily construction.
  3. Data points show that factors like softening asking rents, increased vacancy rates, tighter lending, and higher interest rates are contributing to the decline in multifamily starts.

Question #8 for 2025: How much will Residential investment change in 2025? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2025?

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 26 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing
  1. Residential investment is likely to see a small increase in 2024, which is a positive shift after two years of decline.
  2. Housing starts for single-family homes are expected to remain stable, while multi-family starts may drop a bit more in 2025.
  3. New home sales are projected to rise by about 5% in 2025, indicating a gradual recovery in the housing market.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 12 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing
  1. Local housing markets in October showed the first year-over-year sales gain since August 2021. This is a positive sign for home sales.
  2. The analysis includes over 40 local markets, comparing current data to October 2019. This helps understand how the market has changed over time.
  3. Active listings, new listings, and closed sales are being tracked, giving a clearer picture of the housing market's performance.

A Pro-Speculator Property Tax Policy from Some in Detroit City Council

The Chargeback • 19 implied HN points • 10 Oct 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing
  1. Some members of the Detroit City Council are proposing a property tax policy that could benefit outside property speculators.
  2. Eliminating all property taxes could give non-residents an advantage over Detroit residents in property ownership.
  3. Supporting property tax relief for low-income homeowners could be a better solution than empowering speculators.

Framing the Homebuilders

The Last Bear Standing • 22 implied HN points • 07 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing
  1. The housing market has been tough since 2020, but demand for new construction has helped homebuilders make profits.
  2. Recently, homebuilding stocks have lost some of their gains, and new home inventory is starting to pile up.
  3. A close look at the biggest homebuilders reveals surprising winners and losers in the current market.

January 2025 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update and Inflation

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 21 implied HN points • 18 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing
  1. Home prices changed in the past two decades, with different local and national factors affecting these trends. This means that while prices may rise overall, local conditions can vary greatly.
  2. Recent inflation numbers showed a slight increase, but it's unclear if this is just a temporary change or part of a longer trend. It's important to watch these numbers closely for a clearer picture.
  3. When looking at inflation data, excluding shelter costs gives a better understanding of general price trends, which have generally stayed close to the target rate over time.

FHFA Announces Baseline Conforming Loan Limit Will Increase to $806,500

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 03 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing
  1. The baseline conforming loan limit for 2025 is being raised to $806,500, which is about $40,000 more than last year. This means people can borrow more for buying homes without needing special approval.
  2. In high-cost areas, the loan limit can go up to $1,209,750 for one-unit properties. That's because home prices in those places are higher than average.
  3. The FHA also has its own loan limits ranging from $524,225 in low-cost areas to $1,209,750 in high-cost areas. These limits help make affordability better for those getting loans guaranteed by the FHA.

In Q2, almost 20% of Units Started Built-for-Rent were Single Family

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
💼 Business Housing
  1. In the second quarter of 2024, nearly 20% of new rental units were single-family homes. This shows a growing interest in single-family rentals.
  2. The number of single-family units built-for-rent has almost doubled since 2020, indicating a trend towards more single-family developments.
  3. While multi-family rental units saw a big drop, single-family units are becoming a bigger part of the rental market, signaling a shift in housing demand.

"We need 'affordable' housing, not market rate housing" is much worse than it seems.

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 105 implied HN points • 03 May 23
💼 Business Housing
  1. The cost of housing in a city with ample supply is determined by resident incomes and allows for comfortable spending.
  2. In cities with housing shortages, the cost of housing is determined by other residents' incomes, leading to displacement and competition.
  3. Constructing new market rate housing can help flatten the cost of housing for all income levels and break the chain of displacement.

December 2024 Erdmann Housing Tracker

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 21 implied HN points • 14 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing
  1. Inflation numbers are delayed because the Consumer Price Index (CPI) isn't updated yet. So, we'll have to wait a bit longer for the latest inflation details.
  2. Homebuilders, like KB Homes, continue to report strong earnings despite high mortgage rates. It seems that mortgage rates don't impact homebuilders as much as expected.
  3. There's an ongoing pattern where people keep thinking mortgage rates will disrupt the housing market, but this hasn't really happened lately. It's like a financial mystery that keeps repeating.

NMHC on Apartments: "Looser market conditions for the tenth consecutive quarter"

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 22 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing
  1. The apartment market has been getting looser for ten quarters in a row. This means there are more vacancies and less competition for renters.
  2. Signs show that rents might drop as apartment vacancies increase. If more places are empty, landlords may lower prices to attract renters.
  3. There is less activity in buying and selling apartments, and it's also harder to get financing. This could make it tough for investors in the real estate market.

The Housing Bust Was Not A Cyclical Event

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 84 implied HN points • 26 Jul 23
💼 Business Housing
  1. Overly-cyclical housing markets are not the main problem - zoning regulations are.
  2. Errors about private construction industry being pro-cyclical lead to misconceptions about the housing crisis causes.
  3. Impact of post-recession mortgage suppression on single-family construction and working class homeowners has been overlooked.

Fannie and Freddie: Single Family and Multi-Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 27 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing
  1. Single-family serious delinquency rates showed a slight increase in October, marking 0.55% for Freddie Mac and 0.52% for Fannie Mae. This is still lower than delinquency rates before the pandemic.
  2. Multi-family serious delinquency rates also rose, with Fannie Mae's rate reaching its highest since 2011, excluding pandemic data. This indicates growing challenges in the multi-family housing market.
  3. Delinquent loans are defined as being three or more payments past due or in foreclosure. Despite some increases, many recent loans from 2009 to 2023 are still faring well, indicating overall improvement in loan performance.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2025

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 14 Jan 25
💼 Business Housing
  1. New home listings increased slightly in December compared to the previous year, but they are still much lower than before the pandemic.
  2. Lower mortgage rates during the previous months had encouraged some homeowners to sell, but higher rates now are limiting new sellers this winter.
  3. December and January are usually the slowest months for new home listings, but the year-over-year increase shows some movement in the market.