The hottest Housing Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top U.S. Politics Topics

Sunday West 46

Wrong Side of History • 299 implied HN points • 21 Jan 24
🎭️ Culture Housing
  1. The author discusses the rise of new theists and the benefits of religion despite a decline in observance.
  2. Reflections on the TV show 'The Sopranos' and the author's fear of flying are shared.
  3. The newsletter also covers topics like London's housing crisis, diversity statements, conspiracy theories, sobriety culture, and societal changes in France.

Why We Rent

Something to Consider • 19 implied HN points • 18 Apr 24
💼 Business Housing
  1. Renting offers flexibility, letting people move easily without the stress of selling a house, but this can be managed by real estate agents too. It's not just about wanting to change homes quickly.
  2. People often rent because of capital constraints or fear of debt, but owning a home can be stable and safer in the long run. The real financial barriers might not be as strong as they seem.
  3. Renting can help solve problems related to property management, as landlords often specialize in repairs and maintenance. This can create a better living environment for tenants without the hassle of homeownership.

Against Agglomeration Economies

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 252 implied HN points • 14 Mar 24
💼 Business Housing
  1. Economists often overemphasize the productivity of cities as the reason for expensive housing, leading to misdiagnoses and biases.
  2. High income gains have been observed in cities that didn't experience significant growth in housing units, challenging the concept of agglomeration economies.
  3. Income disparities among cities have increased over time, with a significant impact from Closed Access displacement, showing the importance of considering factors beyond productivity in city assessments.

When we lost our minds: Pt. 5 The Lessons Leamer Learned

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 105 implied HN points • 13 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing
  1. Housing is really important to the economy. It helps predict how the economy will do and often drives changes in it.
  2. The best time to step in and control the housing market is when construction is happening a lot and above normal levels. Waiting too long can cause problems.
  3. In areas like Los Angeles, even though people think there are too many homes, the reality is that many people are affected by rising rents and low construction rates.

The Minneapolis Miracle

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 252 implied HN points • 23 Feb 24
💰 Finance Housing
  1. Minneapolis experienced a drop in rents in 2021 and 2022 but the correlation between housing construction and rent trends isn't conclusive. It's important to assess data carefully before drawing conclusions.
  2. Auckland, New Zealand, has visible rent decreases due to effective supply-side reforms, contrasting with Minneapolis where the impact of such reforms is less clear.
  3. The correlation between income, new home construction, and rent inflation post-Great Recession reveals unusual patterns, possibly influenced by mortgage suppression policies, highlighting the need for comprehensive data analysis.
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What a Second Trump Term Might Mean for Disability Policy

Can We Still Govern? • 105 implied HN points • 03 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing
  1. Project 2025 suggests changes that could make it harder for people with disabilities to get education and support. This may mean less help from federal programs that many rely on.
  2. The housing situation for disabled individuals could get worse. The plan wants to remove protections against housing discrimination without offering new solutions.
  3. Health care coverage for disabled people is at risk. Proposed changes could make it easier for insurance companies to deny coverage and make Medicaid harder to access.

The Best Way to Build Affordable Housing is to Buy It

The New Urban Order • 59 implied HN points • 31 Aug 23
💼 Business Housing
  1. The cost of building affordable housing can be extremely high due to labor, land, materials, and debt, making it unaffordable to produce housing units.
  2. Buying existing housing may be a more cost-effective solution than building from scratch, especially when considering the high costs associated with new construction in major cities.
  3. An emerging trend in the housing sector is for governments and nonprofits to consider purchasing housing rather than solely relying on building new construction, as the current model centered on tax credits may not be sustainable in the long run.

Two different ways to build housing

The New Urban Order • 59 implied HN points • 24 May 23
💼 Business Housing
  1. There are two main approaches to addressing the housing crisis: ADUs and public housing. ADUs are mostly private-sector driven, while public housing is paid for and administered by the public sector.
  2. Both ADUs and public housing are necessary to tackle the housing issue, but there are challenges like costs, time delays, and community opposition for public housing, and concerns about whether ADUs can truly benefit those most in need of affordable housing.
  3. Exploring both ADUs and public housing could provide a more holistic solution to the housing crisis by leveraging the strengths of each approach.

Chapter 8: Think And Talk About Opponents As Little As Possible | Building YIMBYs of NoVA

Cornerstone • 59 implied HN points • 16 Jun 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing
  1. Think and talk about opponents as little as possible to avoid validating them and looking threatened.
  2. Focus on staying positive and productive despite attacks or intimidation. Do not take the bait.
  3. Respect opponents by understanding their motivations and where they are coming from, aiming to outmaneuver rather than dehumanize them.

Housing Starts Increased to 1.321 million Annual Rate in June

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 18 Jul 25
💰 Finance Housing
  1. In June, housing starts were at an annual rate of 1.321 million, which is a slight increase from May. This suggests a growing construction activity but remains lower compared to June 2024.
  2. Single-family housing starts dropped 4.6% from May, while multi-family housing saw a significant year-over-year increase. This indicates a shift in the types of units being built.
  3. Overall, total housing starts are down 0.5% compared to last year, reflecting broader trends in the housing market, especially with single-family units declining while multi-family units grow.

Homebuilder Earnings

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 25 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing
  1. Homebuilder earnings give insights into the health of the housing market. They can show how well builders are doing right now.
  2. Tracking these earnings can help predict future trends in home prices and availability. It’s important for buyers and investors to know what's happening in the market.
  3. Understanding homebuilder performance can help people make better decisions about buying or selling homes. It helps everyone stay informed.

Concerns Brewing?

Spilled Coffee • 72 implied HN points • 15 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing
  1. Currently, housing is facing serious issues with high mortgage rates, making it a tough market for buyers. The demand for mortgages has dropped to its lowest level in over a decade.
  2. Home construction is slowing down, with builder inventories at a high level not seen since the 2008 housing bubble. This can have a big impact on the job market in construction.
  3. Worries are also rising in the stock market and labor market, indicating that many important sectors are feeling pressure right now.

Why Are There a Million NIMBY-Themed Movies and No YIMBY-Themed Ones?

I Might Be Wrong • 5 implied HN points • 12 Dec 25
🎭️ Culture Housing
  1. Popular movies lean on a simple underdog-versus-developer story, making homeowners sympathetic and developers easy villains because that emotional conflict is easy to tell.
  2. Pro-housing (YIMBY) stories are hard to dramatize and sell, since supporting development involves complex tradeoffs and lacks a single, easy-to-hate antagonist that fits classic screenwriting beats.
  3. This storytelling bias has real consequences: it hides how anti-development choices harm people by keeping housing scarce, worsening commutes and pollution, and protecting incumbents who benefit from the status quo.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August 2025

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 14 Aug 25
💰 Finance Housing
  1. The housing market has seen a big increase in inventory this year, with listings up 24.8% compared to last year. This means buyers have more options now.
  2. Sales of existing homes are down slightly, creating pressure on prices, but there won't be a massive increase in distressed sales.
  3. New homebuilders are facing challenges with many unsold homes and are lowering prices to compete with the existing inventory.

Housing Starts Decreased to 1.256 million Annual Rate in May

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 18 Jun 25
💰 Finance Housing
  1. Housing starts in May were lower than expected, at an annual rate of 1.256 million, which shows a decrease from both April and last year.
  2. Single-family housing starts went up slightly, but overall they are down from last year, while multi-family starts are doing better this year.
  3. Building permits also dropped a bit, indicating that new construction might slow down in the coming months.

The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q1

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 12 Jun 25
💰 Finance Housing
  1. In the past, many homeowners borrowed against their home equity, calling it a 'Home ATM', but this led to financial problems when home prices fell. Today, most homeowners have solid equity in their homes, unlike back then.
  2. Mortgage debt increased by $45 billion in the first quarter of 2025, showing a slowdown compared to previous quarters. This is part of a larger trend of rising mortgage debt as people buy new homes.
  3. Mortgage debt as a percentage of the economy is at 44.8%, which is much healthier compared to the 73.1% peak during the housing crisis. This means homeowners today generally have more equity and better financial stability.

November 2024 Residential Construction

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 18 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing
  1. Mortgage rates are really important for the housing market. They can greatly affect both people's ability to buy homes and the rate of construction jobs.
  2. Tracking construction employment can give insights into the housing market trends. It’s a clear indicator of how the market is responding to interest rates.
  3. There are ongoing challenges in the housing market, and the data can sometimes seem tricky. It's like a game where understanding the numbers is key to navigating the situation.

June 2025 Erdmann Housing Tracker and Inflation Update

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 21 implied HN points • 17 Jul 25
💰 Finance Housing
  1. Core inflation has stayed close to the Fed's 2% target for 36 months, showing stability even as jobs have held steady.
  2. Currently, home prices are much higher than normal due to supply issues, with the average home significantly overpriced in major metro areas.
  3. Access to credit is also a big problem, lowering home prices but complicating the supply situation, making it hard for buyers.

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in December and a Look Ahead to January Sales

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 52 implied HN points • 30 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing
  1. Existing home sales increased for three months in a row, but they are still much lower than before the pandemic. December's sales were about 21% below the average from 2017 to 2019.
  2. Inventory of homes for sale is rising sharply in regions like Florida and Texas, with a year-over-year increase of 17.5%. This suggests more options for buyers in those areas.
  3. There were more new listings in December compared to last year, but they are still at historically low levels. The increase in new listings may hint at some recovery in the housing market.

July 2025 Homebuilder Thoughts

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 21 implied HN points • 16 Jul 25
💰 Finance Housing
  1. The housing market could be misjudging homebuilders, suggesting a chance for profit. It's important to pay attention to the factors affecting builders' performance.
  2. There may be systematic issues in how the market is evaluating the homebuilding sector. Understanding these issues can help in making informed decisions.
  3. Investors should consider the potential for trading gains by looking deeper into the housing market trends and builder performance.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 52 implied HN points • 08 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing
  1. In December, closed home sales saw an 18.1% increase from the previous year, indicating a positive trend in some local markets.
  2. There was a significant jump in active housing inventory, up 27.2% compared to last year, with more homes available for buyers.
  3. New listings also grew by 11.8% year-over-year, but overall levels are still historically low compared to 2019.

What is the Erdmann Housing Tracker?

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 27 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing
  1. Most posts are free, but some are paid to provide deeper insights on the housing market and investments.
  2. The Erdmann Housing Tracker helps analyze home prices based on supply, credit, and cyclical factors.
  3. Paid posts often include investment ideas and trends in new home construction to help with economic decisions.

October 2024 Inflation and Housing

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 14 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing
  1. Inflation is returning to a 2% trend, which is good news, but this isn't widely reported. This trend is important for future monetary policy decisions.
  2. Rent inflation is finally slowing down, and maintaining consistent home prices is helping this situation. Focusing on general inflation rather than rent can help stabilize the economy.
  3. Excessive rent inflation has been controlled, but there should be a focus on building more homes over the next decade to further improve housing affordability.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 11 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing
  1. The report looks at various local housing markets across the US for January. It compares this year's data with data from January 2019.
  2. The analysis includes information about active listings, new listings, and closed sales in these markets.
  3. The newsletter encourages readers to subscribe for more detailed insights and data on the housing markets.

Dereliction of Duty

The Radar • 39 implied HN points • 01 Apr 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing
  1. Privatized military housing has led to neglect and substandard living conditions for military families, with reports of black mold, sewage, and pest infestations.
  2. The use of non-disclosure agreements by private landlords to silence complaints from military families about poor living conditions is unethical and unjust.
  3. The decision to privatize military housing has resulted in a lack of accountability and oversight, leaving servicemembers and their families vulnerable to exploitation.

95% of Bay Area Cities Lost Zoning Authority

The Discourse Lounge • 257 HN points • 14 Feb 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing
  1. 95% of Bay Area Cities lost zoning authority, allowing for more flexible residential construction rules.
  2. Bay Area cities need to have their housing elements checked on specific deadlines to avoid zoning restrictions being lifted.
  3. The Builder's Remedy eliminates discretionary subjective approval processes, allowing for more streamlined approval based on objective standards.

Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Decreased in May

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 01 Jul 25
💰 Finance Housing
  1. The serious delinquency rates for single-family homes have decreased slightly in May. This shows some improvement from the previous month.
  2. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's delinquency rates are still higher than they were last year, but they are below pre-pandemic levels.
  3. Multi-family delinquency rates are nearing their highest levels since 2011, not counting the pandemic, indicating some stress in that sector.

California Home Sales Down 1.9% YoY in January; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 20 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing
  1. California home sales fell by 1.9% in January compared to last year. This drop marks the first year-over-year decline in eight months.
  2. The median price for homes in California decreased from December but is still 6.3% higher than a year ago. This shows mixed signs in the housing market.
  3. Inventory of homes for sale increased significantly, up 27.4% year-over-year. More homes are available now, which could change the dynamics of the market.

Fannie and Freddie: Single Family and Multi-Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 47 implied HN points • 31 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing
  1. In November, both single-family and multi-family serious delinquency rates went up. This means more people are having trouble paying their housing bills.
  2. Freddie Mac reported that the single-family serious delinquency rate increased slightly to 0.56%. Even though it rose, it's still lower than pre-pandemic levels.
  3. The overall trend shows that while delinquency rates are increasing, they are still relatively low compared to before the pandemic hit.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 13 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing
  1. Home sales have been increasing for three months in a row compared to last year, which is a positive sign for the housing market.
  2. Inventory of homes for sale is up significantly, especially in southern states like Florida and Texas, meaning more choices for buyers.
  3. New listings are still low compared to past years, but they have increased recently, indicating some recovery in the market.