The hottest Industrial Policy Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top World Politics Topics

Late-Cycle Investment Theory: Winter 2025–2026 in 10 Snapshots

European Straits • 21 implied HN points • 22 Feb 26
💰 Finance Industrial Policy
  1. The US is showing early stagflation: growth is slowing, inflation remains sticky, and consumer spending is soft even as energy and tech costs rise with weak wage growth.
  2. China now operates at a civilisational scale that breaks ordinary economic frameworks, and it is building a massive electrified industrial base that could make it the leader of a new ‘electrostate’ era.
  3. The tech and financial cycles are shifting—AI-driven hype looks like the wrong kind of bubble, while electrification (batteries, motors, power electronics) and tokenisation of finance are becoming the real structural forces reshaping industry and monetary order.

National Defense

David Friedman’s Substack • 188 implied HN points • 09 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Industrial Policy
  1. Using tariffs to protect industries for national defense is a plausible idea, but broad protection harms export sectors and mostly shifts production rather than increasing overall wartime capacity.
  2. Cutting the budget deficit is a more effective way to boost domestic production because it would reduce foreign capital inflows, narrow the trade deficit, and increase both export and import-competing industries so more factories exist if war breaks out.
  3. If tariffs are used for defense they should be very narrow—targeting militarily important goods from China and its allies—but that still risks protecting the wrong products and being distorted by political lobbying.

Jake Sullivan

ChinaTalk • 429 implied HN points • 18 Nov 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Industrial Policy
  1. It's really important to invest time in long-term strategies while handling immediate crises. Jake Sullivan emphasized that setting aside time for the bigger picture helps improve the country's future.
  2. Managing national security means balancing urgent issues with long-term goals, and it takes a team to keep that balance. Having people who remind leaders about these long-term objectives is crucial.
  3. The U.S. needs to be more aggressive and quicker in its industrial policy to compete globally. Jake mentioned that the ability to mobilize resources effectively for national security should be a top priority.

Nuclear Power Needs Realism And Freedom

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 23 implied HN points • 01 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Industrial Policy
  1. Nuclear power in the U.S. has relied on heavy federal support and strict regulation, which helped cause uncompleted projects, big cost overruns, and made it an expensive way to produce electricity without subsidies.
  2. New reactor promises, including Small Modular Reactors, are getting a lot of hype but carry unclear risks and contractual fine print, so their timeliness and cost performance should be questioned.
  3. The proposed policy approach is to end federal subsidies and insurance, shift to private insurance and industry best practices, and make plant owners responsible for waste and decommissioning so the market can decide competitiveness.

Japan isn't quite "back", but it has a fighting chance

Noahpinion • 11000 implied HN points • 22 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Industrial Policy
  1. Japan's stock market is rallying due to foreign investment, but the real economy is struggling with recession and weak manufacturing and exports.
  2. Japan is increasing defense spending and bringing in foreign workers to address labor shortages, however, concerns remain about assimilation and potential backlash.
  3. Japan needs to focus on reclaiming its position in key industries like electronics, developing a software industry and EVs, and reforming its corporate culture to boost economic growth.
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Factory Asia & Trustability Bankruptcy: A Table Suggesting the Race to Be "The Furnace Where the Future is Forged" for the World in the 2000s Is Nearly Over

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 146 implied HN points • 19 Dec 25
🌍 World Politics Industrial Policy
  1. Global supply chains are tightly agglomerated: big clusters and specialized intermediates lock in advantages so that countries can look self‑sufficient overall while still being vulnerable to single choke points, and China sits at the hub of many of those inputs.
  2. Unpredictable, weaponized tariffs erode trust and allied coordination, pushing partners toward precautionary stockpiles or alternative suppliers instead of collective solutions, which deepens fragmentation and weakens coalitions.
  3. Agglomeration economics and China’s dominant supplier role mean the outcome of the race to be the world’s manufacturing “furnace” is likely set by where clusters already exist, not by slogans about decoupling, and self‑inflicted frictions like Brexit make regions less resilient.

What to Learn From China.

Breaking the News • 1051 implied HN points • 08 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Industrial Policy
  1. China's history shows how important international students are for higher education. The U.S. benefits greatly from the brilliant students who come from China and other countries.
  2. Long-term planning in industrial policy can lead to success. China effectively uses consistent strategies to boost its economy, while chaotic policies in the U.S. might not work as well.
  3. Understanding China's past troubles helps provide context for current issues. The Cultural Revolution was a dark time, and it's important to learn about such events to avoid repeating mistakes.

Secretary Marco Rubio remarks - Munich Security Conference

Who is Robert Malone • 27 implied HN points • 14 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Industrial Policy
  1. The West must renew its economy and technology by re-industrializing, securing supply chains, and competing strongly in AI, commercial space, and other critical industries.
  2. Strong border control and immigration limits are presented as necessary expressions of national sovereignty to protect social cohesion and cultural continuity.
  3. The transatlantic alliance should be reinvigorated around shared Western heritage and reciprocity, with Europe taking more responsibility for defense, international institutions reformed, and hard power used when diplomacy fails.

America is Losing Blue Collar Jobs

Apricitas Economics • 80 implied HN points • 06 Jan 26
💼 Business Industrial Policy
  1. Blue-collar employment is falling broadly across manufacturing, construction, transportation, mining, and utilities — roughly 65,000 industrial jobs lost in the past year and about 123,000 fewer trade jobs than the early‑2025 peak.
  2. Manufacturing has been shrinking for more than two years and now makes up less than 8% of the workforce, with big job losses in autos and electronics as demand for durable goods and consumer tech softens.
  3. Construction hiring has slowed sharply (residential trades have lost about 55,000 jobs), driven by the end of the COVID homebuilding boom, weaker energy and trucking activity, and policy choices like tariffs, immigration enforcement, and subsidy cuts that have worsened the decline.

Gridlocked: Transformer Shortage Choking U.S. Supply Chains

ChinaTalk • 948 implied HN points • 11 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Industrial Policy
  1. There's a big shortage of transformers in the US, which are crucial for powering everything from homes to new technology like AI and electric vehicles. This shortage is causing long delays in construction and other projects.
  2. US production of transformers is struggling due to a lack of trained workers and supply chain issues. Only about 20% of the domestic demand is currently being met, leading to rising costs.
  3. This transformer shortage presents a security risk as foreign attacks could cripple the grid. Improving regulations and providing support for domestic manufacturing could help address these problems.

A global green industrialisation initiative can have a ‘win-win-win’ outcome: Henry Huiyao Wang & Wang Zhi

Pekingnology • 120 implied HN points • 14 Nov 25
🌞 Climate & Environment Industrial Policy
  1. We need a global effort to make green manufacturing work for everyone. This means working together instead of competing with each other.
  2. China can leverage its manufacturing power to help developing countries build clean industries, while also allowing the West to access advanced green technology.
  3. By investing in joint ventures and local partnerships, we can create a stronger industrial ecosystem that benefits all sides, leading to job creation and sustainability.

Innovation Job Market Papers 2025 (2/2)

New Things Under the Sun • 48 implied HN points • 24 Dec 25
🕹 Technology Industrial Policy
  1. Innovation is highly geographically concentrated, and place-based policies like targeted R&D or industrial subsidies can raise growth, though the best approach depends on how technology interacts with local productivity and spillovers.
  2. The pace and pattern of technology diffusion hinge on human-capital and market frictions: worker mobility, training incentives, non-competes, and venture-capital funding shape how fast and widely new technologies spread.
  3. Institutions and regulations — including patent rules, exclusivity periods, financial development, and adaptive regulatory sandboxes — strongly shape firms’ incentives to innovate and the trade-off between protecting inventors and promoting broader technology diffusion.

How to Invest in AI Sovereignty — Sovereign Albion w/ Andrew Bennett

State of the Future • 7 implied HN points • 12 Feb 26
🕹 Technology Industrial Policy
  1. The future of AI hardware is heterogeneous computing — many specialised chips (like compound semiconductors and photonics) will handle edge workloads for latency, privacy, and cost reasons rather than everything running in giant data centres.
  2. Europe and the UK can win by focusing on niche, strategic semiconductor areas and building specialist funds and industry partnerships instead of trying to match global capex-heavy players on their own turf.
  3. Successful AI industrial strategy needs fast, experimental, venture-style public support and a cultural shift toward bigger ambition and patient capital to back risky founders and long-term roadmaps.

Ten favorites from 2025

The Works in Progress Newsletter • 42 implied HN points • 29 Dec 25
💼 Business Industrial Policy
  1. Political choices and regulations shape big technological and infrastructural outcomes. Decisions about ownership, siting, and industrial policy often determine whether projects like power plants, aircraft firms, or urban housing succeed.
  2. Small regulatory and technical changes can unlock large health and market gains. Faster approval pathways, scalable biological technologies, and better competition metrics can bring treatments to more people and help regulators act effectively.
  3. Geography and collective action drive economic power and vulnerability. Who controls resources or how land is owned and reorganized affects trade, development, and security, and tools like land readjustment or desalination can reduce holdouts and dependencies.

Five small signs of progress... and what Skegness can teach us about infrastructure

Odds and Ends of History • 402 implied HN points • 02 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Industrial Policy
  1. There are some good signs of progress in infrastructure, like the government's plans for new reservoirs.
  2. Old Oak Common station is making strides in construction, showing that big infrastructure projects can move forward.
  3. Skegness's history highlights the importance of good infrastructure for success and how current issues affect politics.

Ukraine's neoliberalism on steroids, Europe’s economic suicide

Geopolitical Economy Report • 458 implied HN points • 22 May 23
🌍 World Politics Industrial Policy
  1. The conflict in Ukraine reflects aggressive neoliberal reforms and Europe's self-destructive policies.
  2. Wars are fought not just with arms, but also with economic strategies. The underlying geopolitical economy is complex.
  3. Russia is focused on turning military victory in Ukraine into a new economic order, challenging Western imperialism and promoting a multipolar world.

The Few Who Move the Many: Standout & Straggler Firms in Leading-Country Industrial Productivity

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 230 implied HN points • 03 Jul 25
💼 Business Industrial Policy
  1. A few standout companies drive most of the economic growth in leading countries. These companies often make significant advancements that push their industries forward.
  2. It's important to support these successful firms because they create innovations that benefit the whole economy. By helping them grow, we can spread their positive impact more widely.
  3. The U.S. has more standout firms and does a better job reallocating resources from weaker companies. This flexibility fosters growth and encourages risk-taking, which other countries can learn from.

How Taiwan Sees the Chip War

ChinaTalk • 548 implied HN points • 24 Oct 24
🕹 Technology Industrial Policy
  1. Taiwan has become a leader in the semiconductor industry, mainly due to effective industrial policies, the rise of TSMC, and a focus on education and talent. This development is crucial for understanding Taiwan's economic success.
  2. TSMC's success can be attributed to a mix of technological advancement and customer service. They prioritize satisfying customer needs, which is vital for maintaining their competitive edge.
  3. Taiwan's geopolitical situation makes its chip industry crucial for global supply chains. With rising tensions globally, TSMC's role is likened to a protective 'Silicon Shield' for Taiwan, reflecting its importance in international relations.

10 Essays That Defined "Drift Signal" in 2025

European Straits • 15 implied HN points • 31 Dec 25
💼 Business Industrial Policy
  1. The computing-and-networks era has matured, so value is shifting from pure software to embedding that technology into physical systems like manufacturing, energy, and infrastructure.
  2. Energy production and process knowledge are now central sources of national power — electrification and advanced manufacturing decide strategic advantage, and countries that rebuilt deep industrial ecosystems have leapfrogged rivals.
  3. Global finance and institutions are being rewired after political and regulatory shocks, with the US functioning as a major investment platform and programmable capital/tokenisation poised to remake how assets are issued and traded.

The National Security and National Defense Strategies

Who is Robert Malone • 9 implied HN points • 27 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Industrial Policy
  1. The strategy puts American sovereignty first, moving away from broad global intervention and focusing on selective, interest-based engagement to protect core national priorities.
  2. Defending the homeland and the Western Hemisphere is the top priority, treating border security, migration, and narco‑terrorism as national security threats and investing in layered defenses like a ‘Golden Dome’ missile shield.
  3. Peace is sought through deterrence and strength: deter China with a robust Indo‑Pacific posture, demand greater allied burden‑sharing, and rapidly rebuild the domestic defense industrial base.

US vs China: How to win the wrong AI race

Platforms, AI, and the Economics of BigTech • 15 implied HN points • 11 Jan 26
🕹 Technology Industrial Policy
  1. The US is betting on building the smartest AI models and assumes intelligence will stay scarce while coordination can be bought on markets.
  2. China is deliberately commoditizing intelligence by opening models so value shifts to energy, hardware, manufacturing, and the ability to coordinate AI into physical systems.
  3. Once intelligence is abundant, durable power and profits will flow to whoever can reliably execute and coordinate systems at scale, so winning means building coordination, execution, and energy advantages—not just better models.

Big in Germany

Origins of Our Time • 255 implied HN points • 09 Mar 23
💾 History Industrial Policy
  1. Keynesianism focuses on managing demand in the economy.
  2. Military Keynesianism emerged as a response to global crisis and the Cold War.
  3. Implementing Keynesian ideas, especially in relation to military spending, involves navigating class issues.

Modernizing the American Industrial Base: Tacit Knowledge, Comparative Lessons, and the SCALE Challenge

Gad’s Newsletter • 32 implied HN points • 10 Nov 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Industrial Policy
  1. America used to be a leader in manufacturing but lost many skills and factories due to outsourcing. Now, it needs to rebuild those capabilities to compete in a changing world.
  2. Rebuilding the industrial base isn't just about money or machines; it's about regaining the know-how and skills in manufacturing that have been lost. This includes training new workers and fostering communities of engineers.
  3. U.S. policies like the CHIPS Act aim to support domestic manufacturing and technology, but success will depend on collaboration, effective leadership, and a focus on practical skills and processes.

Debating China's Industrial Policy + Jordan in London

ChinaTalk • 592 implied HN points • 17 Jan 24
🌍 World Politics Industrial Policy
  1. Industrial policy in China is a contentious issue, with supporters believing in state intervention for progress and critics arguing for a free market approach.
  2. The debate between economists Lin and Zhang reflects the tension in China's economic thinking on the role of the government versus the market.
  3. Xi Jinping's industrial policies are shaped by the Party's political will to surpass the West in GDP and technology, balancing between state intervention and market forces.

Links to Consider, 11/4/2024

In My Tribe • 227 implied HN points • 04 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Industrial Policy
  1. The job market is changing due to AI taking over routine office tasks. However, more complex management roles might still require human skills.
  2. Some believe that good foreign policy relies more on talking than on action. Words can sometimes seem like solutions even when they aren't.
  3. Recent manufacturing job growth is happening in places less affected by international trade issues. Many manufacturing jobs are still not unionized, which means fewer protections for workers.

Alexander Hamilton Did too Believe in "Industrial Policy"!!

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 176 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Industrial Policy
  1. Alexander Hamilton supported the idea of using government policies to help grow local industries. He believed that controlling foreign competition can actually help American goods become cheaper over time.
  2. Hamilton thought that while tariffs might raise prices temporarily, they could lead to long-term benefits for domestic manufacturers and even help farmers by making goods more affordable.
  3. Critics of Hamilton miss the point that he advocated for state involvement in the economy to promote national growth, which is a form of planned economic strategy.

Faster Turnaround Times, Constraints, Time, and Money

Exponential Industry • 58 implied HN points • 14 Jan 24
💼 Business Industrial Policy
  1. The theory of constraints drives manufacturing decision-making with everything being a function of burn rate.
  2. Industrial goods can be challenging to ship economically, with examples of moving large industrial equipment like a brewhouse and die tools using unconventional methods.
  3. Robots have become significantly cheaper and more precise over the years, making them more accessible for a variety of tasks.

AI Oligarchs: Money Before Country, Again

God's Spies by Thomas Neuburger • 115 implied HN points • 28 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Industrial Policy
  1. U.S. industrial policy has focused on moving jobs overseas to benefit the wealthy, which has hurt the country's economy. Instead of helping the average person, it seems to make the rich even richer.
  2. The tech industry in the U.S. has missed out on competition and innovation because companies put profit before progress. This has allowed cheaper and better technologies from other countries, like China, to take over.
  3. Lina Khan, a regulatory leader, warned that lack of competition in the tech industry would hurt U.S. companies in the long run. It looks like her concerns have come true as American firms are now struggling against more agile competitors.

HOISTED FROM THE ARCHIVES: I Don't Fully Buy Stiglitz's Argument That Our Macro Problems Have Deep Structural Roots. But I Do See Its Coherence

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 7 implied HN points • 09 Dec 25
💰 Finance Industrial Policy
  1. Rapid productivity-driven decline in a large sector can cut incomes, reduce both consumption and investment, and create a persistent aggregate demand shortfall that monetary policy may struggle to fix at the zero lower bound.
  2. Policy options include engineering expected inflation to lower real rates, using government loan or bank guarantees to shift risk and spur investment, or running large-scale public borrowing and spending to restore jobs and restructure the economy; some argue massive public investment is the most reliable route.
  3. Economists split on framing the problem — focusing on the savings-investment flow versus money supply and velocity — and resolving the crisis probably requires combining both perspectives.

Links to Consider, 3/18

In My Tribe • 197 implied HN points • 18 Mar 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Industrial Policy
  1. The perspective that social media is responsible for the prevalence of disinformation is challenged. The era of the mid-twentieth century press was also insular and biased.
  2. There has been a shift in societal values, with the relative importance of a good job increasing in status over having a good family.
  3. The implementation of industrial policy, like the CHIPS Act, is criticized for being slow and laden with DEI-related issues that hinder progress.

BRIEFLY NOTED: 2024-02-12 Mo

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 146 implied HN points • 12 Feb 24
💼 Business Industrial Policy
  1. Capital is increasingly substituting labor, affecting income inequality and job opportunities.
  2. Some New York Times reporters display lack of awareness about key policies and issues, raising questions about the purpose of journalism.
  3. The Apple Vision Pro VR headset is considered innovative but not without limitations, targeting a specific tech-savvy audience.

Former Intel CEO Calls for a US Sovereign Wealth Fund

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 10 implied HN points • 01 Aug 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Industrial Policy
  1. A US Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) is controversial because it could interfere with private markets instead of helping them. Many people think this could lead to problems rather than benefits.
  2. The idea is that an SWF could help the US compete in technology by investing strategically. However, there's a big question about whether the government can handle this responsibly without political influence.
  3. Funding an SWF might not be wise right now since the US is already facing huge budget deficits. Experts worry that adding another layer of government spending might make things worse.

Robot Picking Shining Discs and Water Balloons

Exponential Industry • 0 implied HN points • 11 Feb 24
🕹 Technology Industrial Policy
  1. Robotic grippers are becoming more tactile and AI-enabled across various industrial processes, signaling advancements in technology in the industrial sector.
  2. Investments and partnerships in AI, robotics, and technology are driving significant transformations in various industries like waste management, pharmaceutical manufacturing, and industrial automation.
  3. Innovations like Viscous Lithography Manufacturing (VLM) in 3D printing are showcasing unique and disruptive approaches to traditional manufacturing processes.