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Noahpinion explores global economic trends, geopolitical shifts, and societal changes. It critiques western leftist politics, examines the impacts of shifting power dynamics post-Pax Americana, and discusses technological progress, environmental debates, and policy solutions to international conflicts. The blog also covers cultural and lifestyle topics, emphasizing rational analysis and forward-looking perspectives.

Global Economic Trends Geopolitical Shifts Societal Changes Environmental Debates Technological Progress International Conflicts Policy Solutions Cultural and Lifestyle Topics

The hottest Substack posts of Noahpinion

And their main takeaways

How the Democrats can fight back against MAGA

15764 implied HN points • 25 Feb 25

Democrats need to offer a clear and sensible alternative to Trump's economic policies. People are worried about inflation, and they want a plan to manage it.
It's important for Democrats to protect democracy and free speech. They have to stand up against any overreach by political leaders who threaten these values.
The party should move away from the divisive issues of the past decade and focus on what benefits everyone. Working towards collective goals can help regain voter trust.

Only fools think Elon is incompetent

54000 implied HN points • 23 Feb 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Commentary Public Figures Media Analysis Society

Elon Musk is highly intelligent and has proven his capabilities through successful companies like SpaceX and Tesla. People underestimate him at their own risk.
Real-world skills, like building organizations and inspiring teams, are more important than test scores for success in business. Elon excels in these areas.
Criticism of Elon often stems from jealousy or misunderstanding of his talents. Just calling him 'dumb' won't change the reality of his achievements.

America is being sold out by its leaders

53471 implied HN points • 21 Feb 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Political alliances Economic Policy National Security

There is a concern that America's leaders are making choices that could weaken the country, particularly in foreign relations. If the U.S. were to focus on itself and ignore global involvement, some believe it could hurt its standing in the world.
Some political figures think their vision aligns better with countries like China and Russia than with traditional allies. This shift could lead to a more isolationist approach, where the U.S. limits its international influence.
People worry that the U.S. might reduce military strength and abandon industrial policies, which could harm the economy. Cutting defense spending and focusing on raw materials rather than manufacturing could make the country rely more on other nations.

One big thing the legacy media gets wrong

28412 implied HN points • 18 Feb 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Media Analysis Public Discourse Social media

Legacy media often confuses analysis with opinion, missing the need for deeper insights. Readers want clear explanations and forecasts, not just opinion pieces.
Substack and similar platforms allow writers more freedom to explore topics in depth. This contrasts with traditional print media, which usually limits writers, making it harder to provide thorough analysis.
Many people are tired of the constant opinions in the media and prefer thoughtful analysis instead. Legacy publications could become more relevant by shifting focus to this type of content.

It's time for Europe to stand up

39412 implied HN points • 16 Feb 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Defense Strategy Political Commentary Democracy issues International relations

Europe needs to take on more responsibility for its own security since the U.S. is focusing on threats in Asia instead of Europe. It's time for European countries to step up and lead.
There are major concerns about Europe's internal values and democratic principles. Leaders are worried that Europe might be losing sight of its core values and need to address these issues.
To face threats like Russia and improve its economy, Europe needs to boost military spending and strengthen its economy. Better cooperation between countries and attracting skilled immigrants could help.

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Japan, South Korea, and Poland need nuclear weapons immediately

16117 implied HN points • 19 Feb 25

🌍 World Politics Geopolitics Security International relations Nuclear policy Sovereignty

Countries like Japan, South Korea, and Poland need nuclear weapons for better security. With threats from powerful neighbors, having their own nukes could help protect them.
The U.S. nuclear umbrella isn't as reliable anymore. Domestic politics and shifting priorities in America make it uncertain whether the U.S. would defend its allies against nuclear threats.
Past cases show that having nuclear weapons can actually reduce the risk of conflict. Countries like India and Pakistan have avoided major wars partly because of their nuclear arsenals.

Trump's economy is already in trouble

22765 implied HN points • 14 Feb 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economy Policy Debt Inflation Presidential politics

The economy often struggles under Republican presidents, leading to a pattern where Democrats are elected to fix it. This cycle shows that economies tend to recover when Democrats take over.
Trump's incoming policies might worsen inflation and not help the economy, despite some indicators suggesting the economy is strong. This could lead to significant economic disappointment.
The national debt is becoming a serious concern again as interest rates rise. This makes paying off that debt much more expensive than before, impacting the government's finances.

Trump starts to break things

74295 implied HN points • 02 Feb 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Tariffs Trade Relations Political Analysis International relations

Trump's new tariffs on Canada and Mexico could raise prices for American consumers. These tariffs might hurt people's wallets and lead to higher costs for everyday goods.
The tariffs may disrupt American manufacturers' supply chains, making it harder for them to compete. This could lower the production efficiency of U.S. companies that rely on imports from these countries.
There is uncertainty about the impact of these tariffs on trade relations. If Trump keeps them in place, it could harm relationships with allies and create economic instability.

Anti-anti-neoliberalism is also not enough

21059 implied HN points • 12 Feb 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Democratic Party Progressivism Neoliberalism Elections

The Democratic party is currently trying to find a strong message after a big election defeat. They need a clear economic policy to connect with voters.
New progressive economics is gaining support, focusing on things like healthcare subsidies, strong union support, and taxes on wealthy individuals. However, it faces criticism for not being popular enough.
Despite some successes, Biden's economic policies need adjustments. It's important to learn from his administration while also being open to new ideas outside of traditional economic approaches.

What I think DOGE is really up to

26588 implied HN points • 10 Feb 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Government Policy Elections Ideology Federalism

DOGE is a massive operation that seems focused on reshaping the federal government rather than just cutting costs. People are worried about what it’s doing, but its main aim may be to change the mindset of government workers.
The push to change the federal workforce's ideology may be influenced by the belief that it leans too far left. This could lead to a shift in how government programs function and who runs them.
Understanding DOGE's real purpose is important because it's moving quickly and often in secrecy. Instead of just reacting to its actions, we should be thinking about its long-term effects on government and society.

What's going to happen to Ukraine now?

30412 implied HN points • 08 Feb 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Geopolitics Elections War Strategy Political narratives Public Opinion

The current situation in Ukraine may lead to a Finland-like scenario, where Ukraine could lose some territory but still maintain its independence and democracy. This would be a strategic victory for Ukraine despite the tactical losses.
Recent shifts in American political support mean that while direct aid from the U.S. might change, Ukraine is still capable of defending itself and building its own military resources. They are determined to fight against the invasion.
Negotiations with Russia might focus on reaching a peace deal that allows for ongoing Ukrainian independence, despite the narrative that favors Russia. A balance may be struck where both sides can find a way to end the conflict without total defeat.

At least five interesting things: Chaos Blitz edition (#59)

15647 implied HN points • 13 Feb 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Elections Government Policy Political Commentary Public Opinion

Trump's recent actions create a lot of chaos in government, making it hard for institutions like FEMA and scientific research to function properly. There's concern that this unpredictability could harm everyday services.
Despite some claims to the contrary, U.S. economic data is generally reliable and shows that the economy is doing well, with improvements in wages and job opportunities for most Americans.
China is becoming strong in technology by having multiple industries that support each other, which poses a challenge for U.S. companies because they don’t have the same kind of interconnected industrial ecosystem.

The chaos has arrived

31353 implied HN points • 04 Feb 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Government Policy Trump Institutions

Trump's presidency is causing significant turmoil within institutions like the FBI, leading to a purge of personnel involved in investigations against him.
Trump is making decisions that disrupt relations with key allies and affect government spending, such as imposing tariffs and freezing federal aid.
There are concerns about the chaos resulting from Trump's management style, which may cause even more local and national issues as his term progresses.

When are tariffs good?

19353 implied HN points • 06 Feb 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy Tariffs Economics National Security Manufacturing

Tariffs can help protect national security by ensuring that the U.S. maintains essential manufacturing capabilities for military needs. Having domestic industries ready to switch to military production is crucial in case of conflicts.
Targeted tariffs can support 'national champions,' which are big domestic companies that can thrive by limiting foreign competition. This helps the country's economy by allowing its firms to earn more profit and create jobs.
The infant industry argument suggests that tariffs can help new industries grow by shielding them from foreign competition until they are strong enough to stand on their own. However, broad tariffs should be carefully considered as they might not apply well to every situation.

Too many Americans still fear the future

30706 implied HN points • 28 Jan 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Climate Public Opinion Future Technology Economic Change

Many Americans are afraid of change because it often brings risks to their current status and wealth. This fear is stronger among older generations who have more to lose and prefer stability.
Despite concerns about technology like AI, Americans are still moving forward with innovations and entrepreneurship. This shows a mix of courage and adaptability in facing the future.
Political divisions are causing fear of new technologies. When people think that innovations might empower their opponents, they tend to resist change instead of embracing new possibilities.

Yes, reshoring American industry is possible

30882 implied HN points • 25 Jan 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Industrial Policy Manufacturing Trade Policies Bipartisanship Economic strategy

Reshoring American manufacturing is gaining support from both political parties. People are starting to believe that the U.S. can successfully make things again.
Certain industries like solar power, semiconductors, and batteries are showing promising signs of growth in the U.S. This means that American factories are being built and jobs are being created.
The success in these industries could lead to more manufacturing opportunities across the country. A strong manufacturing base helps related businesses and creates a good economic environment.

Trump's executive orders: Five big takeaways

23706 implied HN points • 23 Jan 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Executive orders Immigration Environmental Policy Affirmative Action Energy Policy

Trump's executive order on birthright citizenship is very controversial because it changes who can be a citizen based on their parents' visa status. Many believe this could lead to legal battles in court.
His orders to limit environmental reviews have received praise as they could make it easier to get projects approved faster, addressing some concerns about long approval times.
There is a growing perception among some that Trump's policies are targeting not just illegal immigration but also skilled legal immigration, which could affect America's ability to attract top talent.

Should economists read Marx?

37588 implied HN points • 13 Jan 25

🚌 Education Economics Philosophy History Theory Social Science

Many economists don't need to read the original works of thinkers like Marx or Smith to understand economics. They usually study practical models and theories that help solve real-world economic problems.
Modern economic education often emphasizes foundational papers by influential economists, which explain key concepts like market failures and public goods, rather than focusing on Marxist ideas.
Reading Marx can be useful, but mainly as a cautionary tale about how economic theories, if misapplied, can lead to disastrous outcomes in real life. It reminds economists to approach their work with humility.

Your memecoin is your slush fund

25529 implied HN points • 21 Jan 25

🔮 Crypto Digital Assets Speculation Market Trends Regulation Investment Strategies

Memecoins like TRUMP and MELANIA are seen as a way to make money without the usual transactions. They can allow people to support political figures while avoiding direct payments.
These coins do not have the same respect as traditional cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Many believe they could harm the overall reputation of crypto, as they mainly serve speculative purposes.
Buying these memecoins could be a form of legal corruption, allowing individuals to give money to leaders or celebrities while disguising the true nature of the transaction, similar to a bribe.

What is there left to believe in?

25882 implied HN points • 20 Jan 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Ideologies Elections Governance Political parties Political Movements

There is a growing frustration among Americans with current progressive ideas, as many feel these ideas do not resonate with their everyday lives.
On the other hand, conservatism isn't showing a strong comeback, leaving people feeling uncertain about their future beliefs and values.
The political landscape seems dominated by individuals acting out of self-interest, making it hard for people to find reliable leaders or movements to support.

The Players on the Eve of Destruction

50647 implied HN points • 02 Jan 25

🌍 World Politics War Conflict International relations Geopolitics Security

War is a real and serious threat in today's world, especially with rising tensions between powerful nations. People often don't understand the huge impact it can have on everyday lives.
Taiwan is an interesting example of how a place can seem peaceful and happy even when there's a looming danger. The people go on with their lives, not fully feeling the weight of possible conflict.
Humanity can see into the future, which is a curse because it brings anxiety. But this awareness can also help prepare for tough times ahead, making it important to take action rather than just waiting.

Why I'm long-term bullish on the Middle East

24588 implied HN points • 18 Jan 25

🌍 World Politics Middle East International relations Geopolitics Conflict resolution Economic Development

The Middle East is moving away from constant warfare, with many regions experiencing peace. This shift could lead to economic recovery as people focus on constructive opportunities.
Technology and geography are becoming more favorable for the Middle East. Innovations like cheap solar power and desalination can help support growth in a region with traditionally limited resources.
The region's demographics are shifting positively, providing a 'demographic dividend.' With a more balanced age structure, there is great potential for economic development and workforce growth in the coming years.

No, you are not on Indigenous land

106119 implied HN points • 30 Nov 24

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Ethnicity Nationalism Social justice

Land ownership is complicated and often involves historical conquests, meaning most land has been taken and reclaimed many times throughout history.
Assigning land ownership based on race or ethnic groups might create more conflict rather than solve past injustices. Instead, citizenship and belonging should be based on institutions, not ethnicity.
Supporting Native American tribes today means respecting their modern institutions and allowing them autonomy in developing their land rather than just acknowledging past grievances.

TikTok is just the beginning

27118 implied HN points • 15 Jan 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Technology Regulation Digital Privacy Social media China relations

TikTok is facing potential shutdown in the U.S. because of a law that requires foreign apps to be sold to American buyers. If the owner doesn't comply, the app could be removed from stores for new downloads.
The Chinese government prefers to control TikTok rather than let it be sold or used freely in America. They believe it's too important to lose, even if it means shutting it down altogether.
Concerns about TikTok focus on privacy issues and how it might be used to spread propaganda. Evidence suggests that the app can suppress negative content about China and promote pro-government views.

Learn smart lessons from the L.A. fires, not stupid lessons

30118 implied HN points • 10 Jan 25

🌞 Climate & Environment Wildfires Climate change Disasters Insurance Preparedness

Wildfires are getting more common, and insurance companies can't keep up. When too many people claim losses at once, some might not get paid.
Climate change is making wildfires worse, but we can't change it overnight. It's a big issue that affects fire patterns.
We really need to prepare for wildfires better than before because they are becoming more frequent and damaging. Improving forest management and regulations is crucial.

Insurance companies aren't the main villain of the U.S. health system

56706 implied HN points • 09 Dec 24

🏥 Health Politics Healthcare Costs Policy Solutions Public Perception

Insurance companies are not the real problem in the U.S. healthcare system. The high costs mainly come from medical providers, like hospitals and doctors, who charge a lot for their services.
Americans often experience frustration with insurance because they feel it denies their claims or doesn't cover costs. However, the insurers are only a small part of why healthcare is so expensive.
To make healthcare more affordable, the focus should be on reducing the high prices set by healthcare providers, not just blaming the insurance companies.

The Pettis Paradigm and the Second China Shock

16059 implied HN points • 16 Jan 25

💰 Finance International Trade Macroeconomics Economic Policy

China has a large trade surplus, which is complex and not solely based on traditional economic theories. Many think its economy is getting help through government loans and subsidies.
There are many opinions on how to deal with China's trade practices, especially the idea of using tariffs. Some believe that tariffs can help change China's focus from exporting to better domestic consumption.
Economics is complicated, and experts often disagree on how to fix trade issues. Current solutions might not work as intended, and some past policies have not improved the situation as hoped.

Trudeau was a poor steward of Canada's economy

22118 implied HN points • 08 Jan 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economy Government Leadership Immigration Public Policy

Trudeau's government struggled to improve Canada's economy, especially with inflation and low business investments. Many Canadians felt disappointed as they saw little change during his leadership.
There was a notable shift in public opinion about immigration in Canada under Trudeau, with concerns over housing and integration rising. As a result, many Canadians became less supportive of high immigration rates.
Canada's economic growth didn't keep up with other countries, notably the U.S., since Trudeau took office. Many believe this issue stems from long-term problems with productivity and investment that were not effectively addressed by his administration.

Indian immigration is great for America

28529 implied HN points • 26 Dec 24

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Immigration Technology Employment Policy Debate Cultural Identity

Indian immigration has a positive impact on the U.S., especially in the tech sector, where many skilled workers come from India. These workers help boost innovation and drive economic growth.
H-1B visa holders, mostly from India, do not harm American workers and can actually lead to more job creation. Studies show that hiring these skilled workers can benefit native-born tech employees as well.
There's increasing backlash against Indian immigrants from some right-wing groups, which reflects broader issues of cultural identity in America. It's important to recognize that diversity enriches the nation rather than divides it.

At least five interesting things: Red Tape edition (#57)

15706 implied HN points • 11 Jan 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Regulation Tariffs Policy Analysis Economic issues

Environmental review laws like NEPA slow down development and can lead to unnecessary delays and high costs, affecting infrastructure projects.
Jimmy Carter's legacy of deregulation is remembered as a way to navigate some current regulatory barriers and foster economic growth.
Targeted tariffs are more effective than broad tariffs in managing imports and trade deficits, and there's new evidence that the Trump administration is shifting towards this approach.

Yes, Americans are much richer than Japanese people

28353 implied HN points • 24 Dec 24

💰 Finance Economics Wealth Income

Americans generally have a higher standard of living compared to Japanese people, especially when you look at their salaries. Even though Japan has a strong economy, many people earn significantly less than their American counterparts, especially for starting jobs.
Living standards in Japan might seem appealing due to factors like safety and good public transportation, but these benefits can be overshadowed by long working hours and less leisure time. While Japan is safe and has beautiful cities, many people still work hard and face economic struggles.
While GDP can show how wealthy a country is, it doesn't capture everything about quality of life. Americans have access to more modern conveniences and have higher average salaries, but Japan offers a safer and healthier living environment, which makes comparing them more complicated.

How do we measure whether China's economy is "ahead" of America's?

20059 implied HN points • 04 Jan 25

💰 Finance Economics Trade GDP Currency Growth

There are different ways to measure the size of economies, like using nominal GDP or purchasing power parity (PPP). Depending on the method, we can get very different perspectives on whether China's economy is ahead of America's.
The exchange rate can change the perception of an economy's size, especially if a country's currency is weak. If China's yuan strengthens, it could suddenly appear larger than the U.S. economy in nominal terms.
When comparing economies, it's important to consider local prices and living standards. For a more accurate view of how people live and what they can afford, using PPP is crucial despite its complexity and potential inaccuracies.

Manufacturing is a war now

45765 implied HN points • 04 Dec 24

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Manufacturing Trade policy Defense Strategy International relations Economic Policy

Manufacturing is becoming a major struggle between countries, especially between democracies and China. If a conflict arises, it could lead to serious consequences for those not producing enough weapons.
China is rapidly increasing its production capabilities across various industries, including military manufacturing. As a result, other countries are facing challenges in competing against China.
Both major political parties in the U.S. are not fully addressing the manufacturing threat from China. A more balanced strategy involving tariffs, industrial policies, and collaboration with allies is needed to tackle this issue.

How we'll know if Trump is going to sell America out to China

33118 implied HN points • 13 Dec 24

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Trade Relations National Security Political Analysis Elections

Export controls on technology, especially semiconductors, are really important for keeping the U.S. ahead of China. If Trump stops these controls, it could mean he's not serious about standing up to Chinese power.
There are doubts about Trump's commitment to manufacturing jobs, as his previous promises may not hold true. His tariffs might just be for show and could even hurt U.S. manufacturing instead of helping it.
China is a serious threat to U.S. dominance, and the way Trump handles trade and technology policy will be key in determining the future relationship between the two countries.

Why are so many Americans acting like a pack of ghouls?

32118 implied HN points • 14 Dec 24

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Discourse Social Issues Cultural critique

Some Americans are celebrating violent actions, like murders, instead of condemning them. This shows a worrying shift in how people view morality.
Political figures and media personalities sometimes justify or downplay violence, which can influence public opinion toward accepting such behavior.
Despite these troubling signs, regular Americans might still hold personal morals, but public behavior seems increasingly harsh and unkind, possibly amplified by social media.

Biden's tarnished industrial legacy

15529 implied HN points • 06 Jan 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis Industrial Policy Political Legacy

Biden's industrial policies, like the CHIPS Act, created a boom in U.S. manufacturing, which is good for the economy. These programs encouraged private companies to invest in factories and technology.
Despite some successes, Biden's approach had major flaws, like listening too much to special interest groups and not fixing regulatory issues that slow down government action. These problems could hinder the future of manufacturing in America.
Blocking Nippon Steel's attempt to buy U.S. Steel seemed like a protective move, but it upset an important ally, Japan, and could hurt the U.S. economy by stalling investments and modernization that the deal would have brought.

What are the checks and balances on the power of Elon Musk?

24647 implied HN points • 21 Dec 24

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Power Oligarchy Public Policy Influence

Elon Musk holds a lot of power in the U.S. political landscape, acting like an influential figure during critical government decisions. His online presence and threats can sway lawmakers, showing the power of private individuals in politics.
Historically, checks and balances were designed for government leaders but not for wealthy private individuals like Musk. This raises concerns about whether the U.S. is becoming an oligarchy, where a few rich people like him have too much influence.
The American people ultimately hold the power over Musk's influence. If enough people oppose his actions and lose trust in him, he could lose his sway in politics, demonstrating the importance of public opinion.

At least five interesting things: Build Something, Dammit! (#56)

17235 implied HN points • 30 Dec 24

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political strategy Elections Public Policy International relations Labor Market

There's a debate in progressive politics between focusing on delivering more goods and services for people versus fighting for control of the Democratic party's direction. Both sides have valid points, but it's important to prioritize tangible benefits for everyone.
China's cyber espionage has grown alarmingly, with hackers accessing sensitive information from U.S. political figures. This raises concerns about privacy and national security, highlighting the need for stronger cybersecurity measures.
Despite worries about disappearing good jobs, recent data shows that the landscape is changing. More high-skilled jobs in management and STEM are emerging, suggesting a positive shift in the job market.

How Paul Krugman changed the public face of economics

25647 implied HN points • 11 Dec 24

💼 Business Economics Macroeconomics Public Engagement

Paul Krugman changed economics by making it more accessible and engaging. He believed that good ideas come from everyone, not just top experts.
He played a key role in popularizing Keynesian economics, especially during the Great Recession. His work helped explain the importance of government spending to boost the economy.
Krugman critiqued the academic hierarchy and encouraged open discussions. He showed that even big names in economics could be questioned, which opened the door for new ideas.

The best-case scenario for Trump's second term

33706 implied HN points • 28 Nov 24

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Government Policies Trump Economy

The economy could keep growing, leading to better wages for workers. If Trump doesn't interfere too much, this growth might continue.
Political unrest may decrease, as many people seem tired of constant outrage. Americans might become more chill and tune out extreme movements on both sides.
Trump might keep some successful policies from Biden while making adjustments. This could boost American industry without causing a lot of controversy.