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Noahpinion explores global economic trends, geopolitical shifts, and societal changes. It critiques western leftist politics, examines the impacts of shifting power dynamics post-Pax Americana, and discusses technological progress, environmental debates, and policy solutions to international conflicts. The blog also covers cultural and lifestyle topics, emphasizing rational analysis and forward-looking perspectives.

Global Economic Trends Geopolitical Shifts Societal Changes Environmental Debates Technological Progress International Conflicts Policy Solutions Cultural and Lifestyle Topics

The hottest Substack posts of Noahpinion

And their main takeaways

Plentiful, high-paying jobs in the age of AI

20235 implied HN points • 17 Mar 24
🕹 Technology AI Jobs Economy Automation
  1. The concept of comparative advantage means that even in a world where AI outperforms humans in many tasks, humans can still find plentiful, high-paying jobs by focusing on what they do relatively better compared to other tasks.
  2. Wages have historically increased despite automation, suggesting that the job market continuously evolves and diversifies, creating new tasks for humans to perform.
  3. Concerns about AI causing human obsolescence and stagnant wages should be considered in the context of factors like energy constraints and the potential for increased inequality and adjustment challenges in the economy.

Trump just rug-pulled the China hawks on TikTok

21470 implied HN points • 11 Mar 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy National Security Elections Propaganda Political Influence
  1. Trump's recent actions regarding TikTok have stunned many conservative China hawks, revealing potential ulterior motives and alliances.
  2. The debate on forcing ByteDance to sell TikTok involves concerns about data privacy, propaganda dissemination, and national security, highlighting the app's significant influence.
  3. The situation with TikTok exemplifies broader international conflicts, potential financial influences, and political interplays that impact policymaking and national security strategies.

This is not a good way to fight racism in America

34882 implied HN points • 24 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Race relations Discrimination Diversity Social Issues Government Policy
  1. Creating a multiracial society requires deep societal changes and can't be achieved through quick fixes or shortcuts
  2. Forging a shared national identity in a diverse society is challenging but achievable through extended, cooperative contact between racial groups
  3. Efforts to combat racism through shortcuts like discriminatory practices or oversimplified diversity training often backfire and require long-term, thoughtful solutions

Chinasplaining will backfire

19000 implied HN points • 06 Mar 24
🌍 World Politics China Global Conflict US Relations Geopolitics
  1. Understanding China's perspective may not lead to a more positive view but potentially a more negative one.
  2. The book 'China's World View' contains outdated information and inaccuracies, affecting its credibility.
  3. The worldview presented in the book might trigger American threat perceptions rather than soothing anxieties.

What just happened in San Francisco politics?

14235 implied HN points • 13 Mar 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election Progressivism Public Safety Housing Education
  1. San Francisco politics saw 'moderate' victories, focusing on results-oriented progressivism over performative leftism.
  2. The election revealed that voters want progressivism with tangible outcomes, emphasizing public safety, education, and housing.
  3. Popular theories include billionaire influence, San Francisco's real progressive nature, and the city's demand for effective governance.
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The Ukraine war is ultimately about Poland

36647 implied HN points • 09 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Russia Ukraine NATO Military
  1. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is deeply tied to Russia's historical rivalry with Poland and its desire to extend its influence over East Europe.
  2. Ethnic imperialism, where a country seeks to dominate a region due to linguistic and cultural similarities, is a core motivation behind Russia's actions in Ukraine.
  3. Poland's economic success and strategic autonomy pose a threat to Russia's dominance in East Europe, fueling Putin's desire to maintain control and influence in the region.

At least five things for your weekend (#30)

15235 implied HN points • 09 Mar 24
🕹 Technology Energy Social media Urban planning
  1. Consumer sentiment may not always align with economic fundamentals like interest rates or unemployment, showing the influence of 'vibes' and media narratives.
  2. Tokyo and Seoul have a unique city development pattern with gradually sloping density, allowing for more people without feeling crowded, achieved through upzoning suburbs and excellent train systems.
  3. The age of energy abundance is upon us as technologies like solar power and batteries become cheaper, alongside increased fossil fuel drilling in the U.S.

Why Japanese cities are such nice places to live

14353 implied HN points • 07 Mar 24
🎭️ Culture Urbanism Housing Society
  1. Japanese cities provide affordable living spaces, like tiny apartments, due to lower demand and a culture of building plentiful housing.
  2. Despite small living spaces, Japanese cities excel in dense, mixed-use urban planning, creating the sense of luxury and freedom for residents.
  3. YIMBY policies in American cities aim to allow construction of compact living spaces like those in Japan, but not to force people into them against their will.

New technologies, new totalitarians

18882 implied HN points • 27 Feb 24
🕹 Technology Social media National Security Surveillance Global Influence
  1. The rise of new technologies like smartphones and social media has presented democracies with a formidable opponent in the form of techno-totalitarian regimes.
  2. China employs a strategy of 'sharp power' to manipulate foreign entities and influence global affairs, utilizing tactics like espionage, social media manipulation, and economic coercion.
  3. China's unique totalitarian approach extends beyond its borders to control the narrative about China, influence the diaspora, and emphasize supremacy of ethnicity over citizenship, posing a new challenge for democracies and liberal principles.

Defending the status quo is not environmentalism

12941 implied HN points • 05 Mar 24
🌞 Climate & Environment Environmentalism Development Climate change
  1. American environmentalism began as conservationism, aiming to protect natural habitats from industrial encroachment.
  2. Modern environmental challenges require building new things like solar panels and dense cities with high-quality infrastructure.
  3. There is a fundamental disagreement within the U.S. environmental movement between those who envision reshaping human development for nature's harmony and those who want to maintain the status quo.

A bunch of handy charts about climate change

21882 implied HN points • 13 Feb 24
🌞 Climate & Environment Climate change Green Energy Emissions Technology Global impact
  1. Climate change is becoming increasingly severe, evidenced by events like record-breaking heat, melting sea ice, and more frequent natural disasters.
  2. Efforts to address climate change are promising, with advancements in green technologies like solar power and batteries offering hope for managing the crisis.
  3. The responsibility for carbon emissions is shifting, with developed countries like the US and Europe reducing emissions significantly, while countries like China remain major contributors.

Economic losses for our allies are not wins for the U.S.

23412 implied HN points • 04 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Economic Disparities
  1. Economic losses for our allies should not be seen as wins for the U.S. It's important not to compare their economic struggles to U.S. achievements.
  2. The U.S. has outpaced many rich nations economically since 1990, sustaining a fairly constant share of global GDP.
  3. It's crucial for the U.S. to view allies like Germany, the UK, and Japan as partners, not rivals. Their strength contributes to American strength, and vice versa.

Why small developers are getting squeezed out of the housing market

11588 implied HN points • 02 Mar 24
💼 Business Real Estate Finance Development Affordable Housing Banking
  1. Traditional banks aren't willing to take on the risks associated with financing small real estate development projects due to the complex and risky nature of construction work.
  2. Small developers struggle to access financing from traditional lenders because they lack the track record and financial resources required to secure loans, creating a barrier to entry in the industry.
  3. Institutionalization of real estate development by large firms can lead to a loss of community identity, charm, and personalized building designs, highlighting the importance of supporting small developers in creating unique and vibrant neighborhoods.

Three threats to the age of energy abundance

7470 implied HN points • 14 Mar 24
🕹 Technology Energy Crypto AI Renewables
  1. The world is experiencing a new age of energy abundance due to advancements in solar power, batteries, and other renewable technologies, leading to increased productivity and numerous possibilities for innovation.
  2. Potential threats to this energy abundance come from the increasing demand for electricity driven by new digital technologies like Bitcoin and AI, as well as challenges in connecting new power sources to the U.S. electrical grid.
  3. Electricity demand in the U.S. is unexpectedly rising again after years of being flat, creating a need for better preparation and planning to meet the surging demand.

We’re entering a golden age of engineering biology

16647 implied HN points • 18 Feb 24
🔬 Science Biology AI Genetics Automation Medicine
  1. The advancements in deep learning, cost-effective data collection through lab automation, and precision DNA editing with technologies like CRISPR are converging to transform biology from a scientific field to an engineering discipline.
  2. Historically, biology has been challenging due to its immense complexity, requiring costly trial-and-error experiments. However, with current advancements, we are now at a critical point where predictability and engineering in biological systems are becoming a reality.
  3. The decreasing cost of DNA sequencing, breakthroughs in deep learning models for biology, sophisticated lab automation, and precise genetic editing tools like CRISPR are paving the way for a revolutionary era in engineering biology, with vast potential in healthcare, agriculture, and industry.

Getting past the 2010s

10882 implied HN points • 29 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Protests Palestine Political Activism Extremism Human Rights
  1. Past unrest can quickly transition to peaceful societies, as seen in Japan's history from protests to tranquil consumerism.
  2. Self-immolation can be a form of political protest, often linked to specific causes like Tibetan resistance or land seizures by governments.
  3. Individuals may passionately fight for extremist causes, willing to die for their beliefs, even if they are not considered mentally ill.

Russia is not actually a very nice place to live

15882 implied HN points • 14 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Russia Crime Rates Public Safety
  1. Moscow may not be as safe or developed as some other cities as perceived by a certain individual in comparison.
  2. There are concerns about the accuracy of Russia's reported murder rates, indicating potential underreporting for political reasons.
  3. American cities face challenges like disrepair, high crime rates, and inadequate public transit systems, highlighting the need for significant improvements.

Did immigration bring down inflation?

9647 implied HN points • 03 Mar 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Immigration Economy Policy Labor Market Inflation
  1. Paul Krugman suggests that increased immigration led to a positive supply shock, boosting growth and lowering inflation.
  2. Immigration's impact on reducing costs for companies and expanding aggregate supply is complex, involving immigrant and native-born wage dynamics.
  3. There are differing perspectives on the role of immigration in reducing inflation, with suggestions including a combination of immigration, Fed action, and pandemic-era supply shocks.

At least five interesting things to start your week (#28)

13588 implied HN points • 19 Feb 24
🎭️ Culture Pop culture Philosophy Education
  1. Pop culture has shown signs of stagnation with more recycled content, indicating a shift towards fewer big hits alongside a long tail of indie content.
  2. Contrary to common belief, heavier cars are not the main cause for the increase in pedestrian deaths in the U.S. Factors like smartphone distractions play a role.
  3. Education's value is debated, with a recent study suggesting minimal impact, but the methodology is criticized for not considering the value of logarithmic returns in the analysis.

At least five interesting things for the middle of your week (#29)

10588 implied HN points • 28 Feb 24
🏥 Health & Wellness AI Food Science Manufacturing
  1. AI might help restore the middle class by narrowing the productivity gap between high-skilled and low-skilled workers.
  2. Americans can still afford food, with spending on groceries remaining steady while restaurant spending has increased.
  3. Native Americans in Canada are involved in urban development and industry, showing a potential avenue for economic growth and modernity.

Pakistan needs a plan

13588 implied HN points • 17 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Economics Geopolitics Foreign Investment Education
  1. Pakistan needs stability, privatization, education, foreign investment, and peace to improve its economic situation.
  2. The country is facing a significant debt crisis due to borrowing from organizations like the International Monetary Fund, resulting in a continuous increase in foreign debt.
  3. To escape the debt trap, Pakistan should focus on investing more, especially through privatization, attracting foreign direct investment, enhancing education, and seeking peace and economic cooperation with India.

Will China squander its moment in the sun?

21647 implied HN points • 25 Jan 24
🌍 World Politics China Government Control Economic Growth Innovation Cultural influence
  1. China is at the peak of its relative power and effectiveness, with impressive economic and scientific achievements surpassing other major world powers at this moment.
  2. There are concerns about a slowdown in China's growth due to economic challenges and lack of focus on what the people truly want, resulting in a potential squandering of the nation's potential.
  3. China's system seems to inhibit breakthrough innovation, limit artistic and cultural influence internationally, and restrict freedom and autonomy of its people, perhaps hindering the nation's overall greatness.

Interview: Sarah C. Paine

19294 implied HN points • 30 Jan 24
🌍 World Politics Military Alliances Threats Global order
  1. Understanding the importance of a rules-based international order for personal well-being and global prosperity.
  2. Governing requires engaging with diverse ideas, considering evidence, and compromising for effective legislation.
  3. Emphasizing the significance of win-win strategies over winner-take-all approaches in addressing complex issues.

Japan and South Korea need nuclear weapons

10058 implied HN points • 26 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Nuclear Weapons Global Security
  1. The case is made for controlled nuclear proliferation for countries like Japan and South Korea to create their own nuclear deterrents.
  2. Nuclear proliferation is already happening with countries like Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea being involved, leading to a need for a balance of power.
  3. The reliability of the U.S. nuclear umbrella for countries like Japan, South Korea, and Poland is in question, making the need for independent nuclear deterrents more pressing.

How we could return to the productivity growth of the 1990s

4705 implied HN points • 18 Mar 24
💼 Business Productivity Economic Policy Investment Labor Market Monetary Policy
  1. Productivity growth is crucial for controlling inflation, maintaining a stable economy, and improving living standards.
  2. To boost productivity growth, a combination of macroeconomic factors like full employment, investment incentives, and stable supply-side conditions is essential.
  3. Three key factors that fostered productivity growth in the 1990s were full employment, high fixed investment, and stable supply with low inflation; replicating these conditions today would require strategic policy interventions.

Japan isn't quite "back", but it has a fighting chance

11000 implied HN points • 22 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Economic Policy Defense Immigration Industrial Policy Corporate culture
  1. Japan's stock market is rallying due to foreign investment, but the real economy is struggling with recession and weak manufacturing and exports.
  2. Japan is increasing defense spending and bringing in foreign workers to address labor shortages, however, concerns remain about assimilation and potential backlash.
  3. Japan needs to focus on reclaiming its position in key industries like electronics, developing a software industry and EVs, and reforming its corporate culture to boost economic growth.

Biden should run on a message of abundance

16764 implied HN points • 01 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election Campaign Economic Policy Climate Policy Energy Policy
  1. Biden should focus on a message of abundance in his campaign, highlighting the positive state of America and his policies that have contributed to it.
  2. Biden's energy policies, including embracing cheap solar and batteries, have brought abundance and climate stability, making them a crucial part of his message.
  3. Biden should run on his economic record, emphasizing the success of Bidenomics and the booming economy during his presidency compared to historical data.

Are "luxury beliefs" a real thing?

3882 implied HN points • 19 Mar 24
📖 Philosophy Beliefs Luxury
  1. Beliefs can be like a consumption good, costing time and effort, especially when they require action to support them.
  2. Luxury beliefs confer status on the wealthy while inflicting costs on lower classes, such as fancy vocabulary, views on drug policy, and family structure.
  3. Different meanings of belief exist, from willingness to bet on an outcome to a feeling of truth and rightness in a statement.

At least five interesting things for the middle of your week (#27)

13411 implied HN points • 07 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Legislation Social media Bipartisanship Poverty
  1. There are signs of Americans pushing back against the divisive thinking of the past decade, with small acts like a country music singer performing a duet to bridge divides.
  2. Political leanings between young men and women may not be diverging as dramatically as suggested by viral charts, indicating a need to be cautious with data interpretations.
  3. Unions and semiconductor companies have found ways to cooperate, showing that determined industrial policy can overcome labor disputes with significant financial incentives.

Western leftists have lost the plot

67295 implied HN points • 10 Oct 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics International Ideology Leaders Conflict
  1. Western leftists have shown support for violent actions that are considered inhumane, such as massacres.
  2. The Western leftist movement's support for violent actions has led to a lack of moral consistency and compassion.
  3. The Palestinian cause has become central to the Western leftist movement, but recent events have caused division and moral disgust.

Book review: "Power and Progress"

8706 implied HN points • 21 Feb 24
📚 Literature Book review Economics Innovation Critique History
  1. The impact of technological innovation on human welfare depends on how society chooses to use these innovations, highlighting the importance of social decisions.
  2. The book discusses how power dynamics in society influence the choices made regarding technology, with recent decisions leaning towards negative impacts.
  3. Society can shape technology to distribute benefits more widely by focusing on inventions that complement workers instead of replacing them, presenting a controversial but essential concept.

2024 could be the pivotal year for Cold War 2

10529 implied HN points • 12 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics Cold War Global Economics Alliances
  1. 2024 could be a pivotal year for Cold War 2, with China's weakening economy and potential U.S. instability altering the global balance of power.
  2. China's economic strength is the core of New Axis power, posing a significant threat to the liberal world order by potentially overwhelming the U.S. in a war.
  3. The economic rise of China is a key factor driving Cold War 2, with its manufacturing might elevating the threat posed by the New Axis.

My sci-fi novel recommendations

25588 implied HN points • 24 Dec 23
📚 Literature Sci-fi Fantasy Short Stories
  1. The post provides recommendations for sci-fi novels from a personal favorite list.
  2. The recommendations cover a wide range of subgenres and themes, from space adventures to post-apocalyptic worlds.
  3. There are also fantasy book suggestions included as a bonus at the end of the post.

Do poor countries need a new development strategy?

10647 implied HN points • 08 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Development Industrialization Economic Growth Globalization International relations
  1. The debate over development strategies for poor countries is evolving, with a shift towards focusing on green energy and non-traded services rather than traditional manufacturing and exports.
  2. Authors like Dani Rodrik and Joseph Stiglitz argue that poorer countries may face challenges in industrialization due to factors like reduced global demand for manufactured goods and increased automation.
  3. Successful growth stories of countries like Bangladesh challenge the notion that industrialization is no longer a viable development strategy for poor nations, emphasizing the importance of traditional methods for economic progress.

America, please be reasonable on immigration

13000 implied HN points • 29 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Immigration Border Security Policy Public Opinion Bipartisanship
  1. Immigration is important for the American economy and societal dynamism, but the current situation at the border is a major problem causing logistical, fiscal, and psychological challenges.
  2. Americans have shifted towards more restrictive views on immigration, with a majority now calling for tougher policies, as seen through rising support for measures like mass deportations and a border wall.
  3. To address the immigration issue, Americans need to embrace compromise on how people enter the country and who is allowed to come in, prioritizing solutions over political opposition.

You're not going to like what comes after Pax Americana

55706 implied HN points • 07 Oct 23
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics Global order
  1. The global order is experiencing increased conflict and instability following the decline of Pax Americana.
  2. Recent events like the Hamas attack on Israel and the ethnic cleansing in Nagorno-Karabakh demonstrate the shifting power dynamics and challenges to peace.
  3. The rise of a multipolar world with new power players like China is ushering in a more chaotic international landscape.

At least five interesting things for your weekend (#26)

13059 implied HN points • 27 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economy Energy Education Wealth Healthcare
  1. The U.S. economy is thriving, with real growth, increased wages, high employment rates, and a booming stock market.
  2. The U.S. energy supply is abundant due to investments in shale oil production, keeping prices moderate and potentially boosting the economy even further.
  3. Millennials and Gen Z are doing well economically, with wealth accumulation surpassing previous generations at a similar age, especially in real estate.

Tariffs are coming

8588 implied HN points • 05 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Tariffs Economic Impact
  1. Tariffs are likely to be a significant tool in the upcoming global trade war, but may not be the most effective solution
  2. China is responding to its economic slowdown by heavily investing in export manufacturing, potentially flooding global markets with cheap goods
  3. The threat of tariffs against Chinese exports is prompting various countries and trade entities to consider imposing their own tariffs, leading to a potential widespread increase in trade barriers