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Noahpinion explores global economic trends, geopolitical shifts, and societal changes. It critiques western leftist politics, examines the impacts of shifting power dynamics post-Pax Americana, and discusses technological progress, environmental debates, and policy solutions to international conflicts. The blog also covers cultural and lifestyle topics, emphasizing rational analysis and forward-looking perspectives.

Global Economic Trends Geopolitical Shifts Societal Changes Environmental Debates Technological Progress International Conflicts Policy Solutions Cultural and Lifestyle Topics

The hottest Substack posts of Noahpinion

And their main takeaways

How to take our country back

2117 implied HN points • 06 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Sentiment Political polarization Social media National Identity
  1. Many people feel a sense of loss for the America they once knew, as values like kindness and community seem overshadowed by anger and division today.
  2. Polls show a decline in Americans' pride in their country and traditional values, but some argue that core beliefs like hard work and tolerance are still very important to many people.
  3. Technology contributes to the current negativity, and there’s hope that by addressing these issues, a more positive and united America could be possible.

The Elite Overproduction Hypothesis

13882 implied HN points • 04 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Education Employment Social Issues Political theory Economic Trends
  1. Many college students are now majoring in STEM fields instead of humanities because they want reliable jobs. However, even STEM graduates are facing high unemployment rates, leading to more frustration.
  2. The rise of highly educated individuals without corresponding job opportunities has caused social unrest. Many young people expected to achieve a certain lifestyle after college, but reality has been disappointing for a lot of them.
  3. To ease this tension, we may need to adjust our expectations about work and success. It's important to focus on realistic career paths and find ways to improve job opportunities for everyone.

We can't afford to keep cutting taxes for the rich

26823 implied HN points • 02 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Tax policy Government debt Economic Growth Republican party
  1. The government can't keep giving big tax cuts to wealthy people because it leads to huge debts. It's not sustainable for the future.
  2. Raising taxes on the rich could help address the financial issues the U.S. is facing. This could provide more funds for essential services and programs.
  3. Continued tax cuts for the rich will mostly benefit wealthy individuals while putting more burdens on middle-class families and the poor. This creates a cycle of growing inequality.

Would you rather have cheap energy, or stupid culture wars?

38588 implied HN points • 29 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Energy Policy Economic Policy Trump administration Legislation Public Opinion
  1. The proposed budget bill includes new taxes on solar and wind energy, which could make energy more expensive for Americans. This might hurt the growth of renewable energy sources that could help reduce electricity costs.
  2. By raising taxes on clean energy technologies, the bill could lead to job losses in the rapidly growing renewable energy sector. This is particularly concerning for regions that have benefited economically from these industries.
  3. The bill reflects a broader cultural battle against non-fossil fuel energy. Its supporters seem more focused on ideological beliefs than on economic or environmental benefits, which could have long-term negative effects on energy prices and reliability.

Jewish Americans are feeling unsettled

13823 implied HN points • 01 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Identity politics Anti-Semitism Social movements Racial Issues
  1. Many Jewish Americans are feeling anxious due to rising antisemitism and political tensions. Recent events have made them more aware of their safety and acceptance in society.
  2. There's a noticeable increase in antisemitic incidents and hate crimes, especially after significant global events related to Israel and Palestine. This has led to fears among Jewish communities about their security.
  3. Jewish Americans are feeling squeezed between extreme political movements on both the left and right. This situation is causing them to reconsider their place in America and, in some cases, even think about moving or changing their lives.
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The dawn of the posthuman age

23000 implied HN points • 27 Jun 25
🕹 Technology Artificial Intelligence Digital Culture Societal Change Future Predictions
  1. Human fertility rates are dropping significantly, which means populations are getting older and smaller. This change can lead to economic problems as fewer workers have to support more retirees.
  2. New technologies and social changes, especially from the internet and AI, are shifting how we connect and live. We're becoming more collective in our experiences rather than individualistic.
  3. As we rely more on digital tools and social media, our desire for traditional family structures and offline relationships may decrease, leading to a potential future where fewer people want to have children.

Zohran Mamdani's policies will (mostly) not bring abundance to NYC

20823 implied HN points • 24 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Social Issues Public Opinion Progressivism
  1. Zohran Mamdani's economic policies might not help improve New York City as much as people hope. Some of his ideas could actually hurt the city's housing market.
  2. His plans include building more affordable housing and providing free child care, but there are concerns about their effectiveness and costs. It's important that the government can actually deliver on these promises.
  3. The focus on making government more efficient and achieving good outcomes is essential. Just saying you want better results isn't enough; real policies must back those words.

Feeling cautiously optimistic about American democracy

44824 implied HN points • 15 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Government Elections Social movements Public Opinion Civil Rights
  1. Recent protests showed strong support for American values, with many people carrying flags and emphasizing peace. This suggests a united front against authoritarianism and a desire for democracy.
  2. The protests were mostly peaceful, and this nonviolent approach helped maintain public support. It's important to present a calm alternative to anger and chaos to keep the focus on core issues.
  3. Despite challenges, people's approval of Trump's handling of key issues is changing. There's a growing need for the Democratic party to offer a clear vision for the future, beyond just opposing Trump.

The economic consequences of a war with Iran

19647 implied HN points • 22 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Economics Military International relations
  1. A war with Iran is unlikely to escalate into a large-scale conflict, especially since other countries like China and Russia are not likely to intervene. The situation seems to remain mostly under control.
  2. The economic impact of the conflict might mainly affect oil prices. If Iran reduces its oil exports or closes the Strait of Hormuz, it could hurt global oil supply, but the U.S. is somewhat protected from these disruptions.
  3. Many fears about the economic consequences of Trump's strikes on Iran might be exaggerated. The U.S. economy is more insulated from oil supply issues than other countries, so the overall risk may not be as serious as some think.

China's industrial policy has an unprofitability problem

22412 implied HN points • 20 Jun 25
💼 Business Economics Trade Industry Policy Manufacturing
  1. China's industrial policy is pushing many manufacturers to compete heavily for a limited domestic market. This competition is driving down profit margins as companies fight for customers.
  2. Despite heavy government support and subsidies, many Chinese manufacturers are struggling with profitability and facing price wars that could lead to bankruptcies. This creates a risk of economic instability.
  3. The focus on making more products instead of better ones can hurt innovation. Companies under financial pressure might not invest in long-term improvements and could rely on cheap prices to sell their goods.

Western democracies are actually pretty good at war

21706 implied HN points • 19 Jun 25
🌍 World Politics Military Democracy Conflict Geopolitics International relations
  1. Western democracies can actually be very effective in wars, often outperforming autocracies when they choose to engage. This challenges the common belief that autocratic regimes are inherently stronger in military situations.
  2. Democracies tend to be more careful about the wars they fight, often only choosing battles when they have a good chance of winning, which contributes to their higher success rates. Their economy and technological advantages also play a significant role.
  3. While democracies have historically had support from the U.S., the rise of China as a strong autocracy poses new challenges. If conflict arises, democracies might not have the same military or technological edge they used to rely on.

Social media destroyed one of America's key advantages

29235 implied HN points • 13 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Social media Polarization Public Sentiment Cultural Issues
  1. Social media has trapped people together, making it harder to escape from differing views and decreasing trust among Americans. It was easier before to live separately and avoid conflicts.
  2. The rise of smartphones and social media has led to increased feelings of unhappiness and anxiety among people, especially educated liberals who are facing challenges from their peers.
  3. America's unique culture of geographic sorting allowed for diverse opinions to coexist more peacefully, but social media has broken down those barriers, leading to greater polarization and conflict.

Progressives take their best shot at Abundance (but it falls short)

14588 implied HN points • 17 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis Progressivism Regulation Economic Theory Political critique
  1. Critics of the book 'Abundance' often haven't read it and misunderstand its ideas. Instead of addressing the arguments, they focus on insulting the authors.
  2. The backlash against 'Abundance' seems to stem from its author Ezra Klein's influence rather than the book's actual content. Some progressives feel threatened by a shift in focus towards empowering the government.
  3. One critic, Sandeep Vaheesan, does engage with the book but misinterprets its core arguments. He points out that while 'Abundance' suggests empowering the government, it doesn't clearly outline the specific actions needed to achieve that.

It's OK not to be fat

30000 implied HN points • 07 Jun 25
🏥 Health & Wellness Nutrition Weight Loss Obesity Mental health Technology
  1. Losing weight can be more about paying attention to what you eat rather than just having strong willpower. Being mindful of how much you eat and when you stop can make it easier to lose weight.
  2. Technological solutions, like certain weight-loss drugs, may be better at addressing obesity than social solutions. These medications can help suppress appetite and lead to effective and sustainable weight loss.
  3. Weight loss doesn't have to be a moral or self-worth issue. It's just a matter of managing hunger and attention, and using tools to simplify the process can free up time for more important things.

At least five interesting things: Anything but protests edition (#65)

19765 implied HN points • 11 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Government Economy Energy Manufacturing Trade
  1. The U.S. government is actually pretty efficient, which surprises many tech workers. They often expect to find lots of waste, but instead find hard-working employees.
  2. Solar power is becoming a major energy source in the U.S. and can meet a big chunk of electricity demand, especially when combined with batteries for storage.
  3. Americans are getting richer again after the 2008 financial crisis and housing crash, as housing prices rise and household debt decreases.

A bunch of thoughts and evidence on immigration

18647 implied HN points • 10 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Immigration Public Opinion Political Rhetoric Policy Impact Social Issues
  1. Many Americans are unhappy with immigration policies, feeling that their voices aren't being heard. This frustration is often linked to perceptions of illegal immigration and the feeling that it goes against the democratic process.
  2. At the same time, the U.S. economy relies on immigration to grow, especially in small towns that need new residents to thrive. It's important for the country to find a balance between welcoming immigrants and addressing the concerns of citizens.
  3. There's a cultural shift happening, where Hispanic Americans are becoming more integrated and supportive of stricter immigration policies. This suggests that as communities succeed economically, their views on immigration can change.

Immigration is not an "invasion", nor should it be

16706 implied HN points • 09 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Immigration Policy Politics History Culture
  1. Immigration should not be viewed as an invasion. It's important to recognize that it's about people seeking better lives, not a threat to society.
  2. Both political sides often exaggerate the impacts of immigration for their agendas. This can make people feel scared or confused about the real issues.
  3. The concept of illegal immigration has become more complicated over time due to changes in laws and asylum rules, making it harder for the public to understand.

Trump starts to break things

74295 implied HN points • 02 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Tariffs Trade Relations Political Analysis International relations
  1. Trump's new tariffs on Canada and Mexico could raise prices for American consumers. These tariffs might hurt people's wallets and lead to higher costs for everyday goods.
  2. The tariffs may disrupt American manufacturers' supply chains, making it harder for them to compete. This could lower the production efficiency of U.S. companies that rely on imports from these countries.
  3. There is uncertainty about the impact of these tariffs on trade relations. If Trump keeps them in place, it could harm relationships with allies and create economic instability.

Only fools think Elon is incompetent

54000 implied HN points • 23 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Commentary Public Figures Media Analysis Society
  1. Elon Musk is highly intelligent and has proven his capabilities through successful companies like SpaceX and Tesla. People underestimate him at their own risk.
  2. Real-world skills, like building organizations and inspiring teams, are more important than test scores for success in business. Elon excels in these areas.
  3. Criticism of Elon often stems from jealousy or misunderstanding of his talents. Just calling him 'dumb' won't change the reality of his achievements.

America is being sold out by its leaders

53471 implied HN points • 21 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Political alliances Economic Policy National Security
  1. There is a concern that America's leaders are making choices that could weaken the country, particularly in foreign relations. If the U.S. were to focus on itself and ignore global involvement, some believe it could hurt its standing in the world.
  2. Some political figures think their vision aligns better with countries like China and Russia than with traditional allies. This shift could lead to a more isolationist approach, where the U.S. limits its international influence.
  3. People worry that the U.S. might reduce military strength and abandon industrial policies, which could harm the economy. Cutting defense spending and focusing on raw materials rather than manufacturing could make the country rely more on other nations.

No, you are not on Indigenous land

106119 implied HN points • 30 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Ethnicity Nationalism Indigenous issues Social justice
  1. Land ownership is complicated and often involves historical conquests, meaning most land has been taken and reclaimed many times throughout history.
  2. Assigning land ownership based on race or ethnic groups might create more conflict rather than solve past injustices. Instead, citizenship and belonging should be based on institutions, not ethnicity.
  3. Supporting Native American tribes today means respecting their modern institutions and allowing them autonomy in developing their land rather than just acknowledging past grievances.

It's time for Europe to stand up

39412 implied HN points • 16 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Defense Strategy Political Commentary Democracy issues International relations
  1. Europe needs to take on more responsibility for its own security since the U.S. is focusing on threats in Asia instead of Europe. It's time for European countries to step up and lead.
  2. There are major concerns about Europe's internal values and democratic principles. Leaders are worried that Europe might be losing sight of its core values and need to address these issues.
  3. To face threats like Russia and improve its economy, Europe needs to boost military spending and strengthen its economy. Better cooperation between countries and attracting skilled immigrants could help.

The Players on the Eve of Destruction

50647 implied HN points • 02 Jan 25
🌍 World Politics War Conflict International relations Geopolitics Security
  1. War is a real and serious threat in today's world, especially with rising tensions between powerful nations. People often don't understand the huge impact it can have on everyday lives.
  2. Taiwan is an interesting example of how a place can seem peaceful and happy even when there's a looming danger. The people go on with their lives, not fully feeling the weight of possible conflict.
  3. Humanity can see into the future, which is a curse because it brings anxiety. But this awareness can also help prepare for tough times ahead, making it important to take action rather than just waiting.

One big thing the legacy media gets wrong

28412 implied HN points • 18 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Media Analysis Public Discourse Social media
  1. Legacy media often confuses analysis with opinion, missing the need for deeper insights. Readers want clear explanations and forecasts, not just opinion pieces.
  2. Substack and similar platforms allow writers more freedom to explore topics in depth. This contrasts with traditional print media, which usually limits writers, making it harder to provide thorough analysis.
  3. Many people are tired of the constant opinions in the media and prefer thoughtful analysis instead. Legacy publications could become more relevant by shifting focus to this type of content.

Insurance companies aren't the main villain of the U.S. health system

56706 implied HN points • 09 Dec 24
🏥 Health Politics Healthcare Costs Policy Solutions Public Perception
  1. Insurance companies are not the real problem in the U.S. healthcare system. The high costs mainly come from medical providers, like hospitals and doctors, who charge a lot for their services.
  2. Americans often experience frustration with insurance because they feel it denies their claims or doesn't cover costs. However, the insurers are only a small part of why healthcare is so expensive.
  3. To make healthcare more affordable, the focus should be on reducing the high prices set by healthcare providers, not just blaming the insurance companies.

What's going to happen to Ukraine now?

30412 implied HN points • 08 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Geopolitics Elections War Strategy Political narratives Public Opinion
  1. The current situation in Ukraine may lead to a Finland-like scenario, where Ukraine could lose some territory but still maintain its independence and democracy. This would be a strategic victory for Ukraine despite the tactical losses.
  2. Recent shifts in American political support mean that while direct aid from the U.S. might change, Ukraine is still capable of defending itself and building its own military resources. They are determined to fight against the invasion.
  3. Negotiations with Russia might focus on reaching a peace deal that allows for ongoing Ukrainian independence, despite the narrative that favors Russia. A balance may be struck where both sides can find a way to end the conflict without total defeat.

The chaos has arrived

31353 implied HN points • 04 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Government Policy Trump Institutions
  1. Trump's presidency is causing significant turmoil within institutions like the FBI, leading to a purge of personnel involved in investigations against him.
  2. Trump is making decisions that disrupt relations with key allies and affect government spending, such as imposing tariffs and freezing federal aid.
  3. There are concerns about the chaos resulting from Trump's management style, which may cause even more local and national issues as his term progresses.

Should economists read Marx?

37588 implied HN points • 13 Jan 25
🚌 Education Economics Philosophy History Theory Social Science
  1. Many economists don't need to read the original works of thinkers like Marx or Smith to understand economics. They usually study practical models and theories that help solve real-world economic problems.
  2. Modern economic education often emphasizes foundational papers by influential economists, which explain key concepts like market failures and public goods, rather than focusing on Marxist ideas.
  3. Reading Marx can be useful, but mainly as a cautionary tale about how economic theories, if misapplied, can lead to disastrous outcomes in real life. It reminds economists to approach their work with humility.

What I think DOGE is really up to

26588 implied HN points • 10 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Government Policy Elections Ideology Federalism
  1. DOGE is a massive operation that seems focused on reshaping the federal government rather than just cutting costs. People are worried about what it’s doing, but its main aim may be to change the mindset of government workers.
  2. The push to change the federal workforce's ideology may be influenced by the belief that it leans too far left. This could lead to a shift in how government programs function and who runs them.
  3. Understanding DOGE's real purpose is important because it's moving quickly and often in secrecy. Instead of just reacting to its actions, we should be thinking about its long-term effects on government and society.

Too many Americans still fear the future

30706 implied HN points • 28 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Climate Public Opinion Future Technology Economic Change
  1. Many Americans are afraid of change because it often brings risks to their current status and wealth. This fear is stronger among older generations who have more to lose and prefer stability.
  2. Despite concerns about technology like AI, Americans are still moving forward with innovations and entrepreneurship. This shows a mix of courage and adaptability in facing the future.
  3. Political divisions are causing fear of new technologies. When people think that innovations might empower their opponents, they tend to resist change instead of embracing new possibilities.

Yes, reshoring American industry is possible

30882 implied HN points • 25 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Industrial Policy Manufacturing Trade Policies Bipartisanship Economic strategy
  1. Reshoring American manufacturing is gaining support from both political parties. People are starting to believe that the U.S. can successfully make things again.
  2. Certain industries like solar power, semiconductors, and batteries are showing promising signs of growth in the U.S. This means that American factories are being built and jobs are being created.
  3. The success in these industries could lead to more manufacturing opportunities across the country. A strong manufacturing base helps related businesses and creates a good economic environment.

Trump's economy is already in trouble

22765 implied HN points • 14 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economy Policy Debt Inflation Presidential politics
  1. The economy often struggles under Republican presidents, leading to a pattern where Democrats are elected to fix it. This cycle shows that economies tend to recover when Democrats take over.
  2. Trump's incoming policies might worsen inflation and not help the economy, despite some indicators suggesting the economy is strong. This could lead to significant economic disappointment.
  3. The national debt is becoming a serious concern again as interest rates rise. This makes paying off that debt much more expensive than before, impacting the government's finances.

Manufacturing is a war now

45765 implied HN points • 04 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Manufacturing Trade policy Defense Strategy International relations Economic Policy
  1. Manufacturing is becoming a major struggle between countries, especially between democracies and China. If a conflict arises, it could lead to serious consequences for those not producing enough weapons.
  2. China is rapidly increasing its production capabilities across various industries, including military manufacturing. As a result, other countries are facing challenges in competing against China.
  3. Both major political parties in the U.S. are not fully addressing the manufacturing threat from China. A more balanced strategy involving tariffs, industrial policies, and collaboration with allies is needed to tackle this issue.

Anti-anti-neoliberalism is also not enough

21059 implied HN points • 12 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Democratic Party Progressivism Neoliberalism Elections
  1. The Democratic party is currently trying to find a strong message after a big election defeat. They need a clear economic policy to connect with voters.
  2. New progressive economics is gaining support, focusing on things like healthcare subsidies, strong union support, and taxes on wealthy individuals. However, it faces criticism for not being popular enough.
  3. Despite some successes, Biden's economic policies need adjustments. It's important to learn from his administration while also being open to new ideas outside of traditional economic approaches.

Learn smart lessons from the L.A. fires, not stupid lessons

30118 implied HN points • 10 Jan 25
🌞 Climate & Environment Wildfires Climate change Disasters Insurance Preparedness
  1. Wildfires are getting more common, and insurance companies can't keep up. When too many people claim losses at once, some might not get paid.
  2. Climate change is making wildfires worse, but we can't change it overnight. It's a big issue that affects fire patterns.
  3. We really need to prepare for wildfires better than before because they are becoming more frequent and damaging. Improving forest management and regulations is crucial.

What is there left to believe in?

25882 implied HN points • 20 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Ideologies Elections Governance Political parties Political Movements
  1. There is a growing frustration among Americans with current progressive ideas, as many feel these ideas do not resonate with their everyday lives.
  2. On the other hand, conservatism isn't showing a strong comeback, leaving people feeling uncertain about their future beliefs and values.
  3. The political landscape seems dominated by individuals acting out of self-interest, making it hard for people to find reliable leaders or movements to support.

Your memecoin is your slush fund

25529 implied HN points • 21 Jan 25
🔮 Crypto Digital Assets Speculation Market Trends Regulation Investment Strategies
  1. Memecoins like TRUMP and MELANIA are seen as a way to make money without the usual transactions. They can allow people to support political figures while avoiding direct payments.
  2. These coins do not have the same respect as traditional cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Many believe they could harm the overall reputation of crypto, as they mainly serve speculative purposes.
  3. Buying these memecoins could be a form of legal corruption, allowing individuals to give money to leaders or celebrities while disguising the true nature of the transaction, similar to a bribe.

TikTok is just the beginning

27118 implied HN points • 15 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Technology Regulation Digital Privacy Social media China relations
  1. TikTok is facing potential shutdown in the U.S. because of a law that requires foreign apps to be sold to American buyers. If the owner doesn't comply, the app could be removed from stores for new downloads.
  2. The Chinese government prefers to control TikTok rather than let it be sold or used freely in America. They believe it's too important to lose, even if it means shutting it down altogether.
  3. Concerns about TikTok focus on privacy issues and how it might be used to spread propaganda. Evidence suggests that the app can suppress negative content about China and promote pro-government views.

Trump's executive orders: Five big takeaways

23706 implied HN points • 23 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Executive orders Immigration Environmental Policy Affirmative Action Energy Policy
  1. Trump's executive order on birthright citizenship is very controversial because it changes who can be a citizen based on their parents' visa status. Many believe this could lead to legal battles in court.
  2. His orders to limit environmental reviews have received praise as they could make it easier to get projects approved faster, addressing some concerns about long approval times.
  3. There is a growing perception among some that Trump's policies are targeting not just illegal immigration but also skilled legal immigration, which could affect America's ability to attract top talent.

How the Democrats can fight back against MAGA

15764 implied HN points • 25 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Partisan Politics Political strategy Democratic Party Election Dynamics Civic engagement
  1. Democrats need to offer a clear and sensible alternative to Trump's economic policies. People are worried about inflation, and they want a plan to manage it.
  2. It's important for Democrats to protect democracy and free speech. They have to stand up against any overreach by political leaders who threaten these values.
  3. The party should move away from the divisive issues of the past decade and focus on what benefits everyone. Working towards collective goals can help regain voter trust.