New Things Under the Sun

New Things Under the Sun is a research-oriented Substack focusing on innovation, including its economics, biases against risky research, the role of firm size in R&D, and the impact of teachers on innovation. It discusses the peer review process, the application of research across regions, and technological risks.

Economics of Innovation Research and Development Practices Bias in Scientific Research Impact of Firm Size on Innovation Risk and Safety in Technology Educational Influence on Innovation Peer Review in Scientific Publishing Regional Variability in Research Application Policy Impacts on Technological Progress Knowledge Spillovers and Collaboration in Research

The hottest Substack posts of New Things Under the Sun

And their main takeaways

Frequently Asked Questions About US Government Funding for R&D

96 implied HN points • 19 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Government funding Research & Development Economic Growth Public Policy Innovation
  1. The US government spent about $160 billion on research and development (R&D) in 2022, but this is a declining share of overall GDP. In contrast, the private sector spends significantly more on R&D.
  2. Averaging across sectors, every dollar spent on R&D can generate about $5.50 in economic growth, with some estimates suggesting even higher benefits when considering broader impacts.
  3. Government funding is important because it explores research areas that might be overlooked by private companies, ensuring that valuable scientific knowledge is developed for public benefit.

Government Funding for R&D and Productivity Growth

272 implied HN points • 07 Feb 25
💼 Business Economic Impact Government Policy Innovation
  1. Government funding for research and development usually offers significant returns, boosting economic growth over time. For example, for every dollar spent on R&D, there can be several dollars in economic benefits.
  2. A 1% increase in government R&D funding can lead to a noticeable rise in national productivity within a few years. Specifically, it can increase productivity by about 0.2% over the long term.
  3. Different types of R&D spending, like defense versus non-defense, can have varying impacts on productivity. Non-defense R&D tends to have a greater positive effect, meaning it’s often more beneficial to overall economic growth.

Do Prediction Technologies Help Novices or Experts More?

224 implied HN points • 27 Jan 25
🕹 Technology AI Innovation Research Data science
  1. AI can help both beginners and experts, but it depends on the tasks they are working on. Sometimes, beginners gain more because AI levels the playing field.
  2. In some cases, experts benefit more from AI. They can solve complex problems that AI cannot, while beginners still struggle with those.
  3. Prediction tools can make a big difference in innovation fields like mining and drug discovery. The impact varies based on expertise and the types of problems being addressed.

Prediction Technologies and Innovation

160 implied HN points • 08 Jan 25
🕹 Technology Innovation Artificial Intelligence Research Methods
  1. Prediction technologies help scientists make better guesses about what to explore next, like using AI to identify promising research areas. However, they can also lead people to focus too much on certain topics, missing out on other important areas.
  2. Research tools can change what scientists choose to study. For example, a tool might encourage research on proteins we already know about instead of new, less understood ones, which could slow down innovation.
  3. Different prediction technologies have different effects. Some can help researchers discover more unique solutions, while others may cause everyone to chase the same problems, limiting overall progress.

Innovation Job Market Papers 2024 (3/3)

192 implied HN points • 06 Dec 24
💼 Business Innovation Economics R&D Entrepreneurship Globalization Technology
  1. Many new PhD researchers are studying innovation topics in their job market papers. These papers are valuable for understanding current trends in technology and business.
  2. Some research focuses on how companies adapt their innovation strategies in response to challenges like climate change and competition. This shows that innovation is not just about new ideas but also about practical responses to real-world issues.
  3. There is growing interest in how digital platforms influence entrepreneurship. These platforms can help small businesses thrive and increase diversity in the market, which benefits consumers.
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Training Scientists in Low and Middle Income Countries

240 implied HN points • 25 Nov 24
🚌 Education Mentorship Professional development
  1. Training scientists in low and middle income countries is important to build local research capacity. It helps researchers focus on relevant topics for their communities instead of relying solely on outside expertise.
  2. Programs like STAARS and EDCTP show that mentorship and international collaboration can lead to more research outputs and a change in research focus. Participants tend to publish more and get higher citations.
  3. Networking plays a big role in spreading knowledge among scientists. When trained researchers return home, they often share what they've learned, benefiting their peers and enhancing local research.

Innovation Job Market Papers 2024 (1/3)

112 implied HN points • 06 Dec 24
💼 Business Innovation Economics Research Market Analysis Entrepreneurship
  1. Many new PhD candidates are presenting innovative research papers related to job markets in 2024. It's a great opportunity to see fresh ideas and studies in innovation.
  2. These papers explore various aspects of innovation, including mentorship, financial frictions, and the impact of technology on productivity. Each study offers insights into how these elements shape economic growth.
  3. There are events and reviews for PhD students interested in innovation, which can help them network and present their work. Engaging in these opportunities can boost their academic and professional careers.

Innovation Job Market Papers 2024 (2/3)

96 implied HN points • 06 Dec 24
💼 Business Innovation Economics Research Investment Technology
  1. Many recent PhD papers are focused on innovation, covering a wide range of topics like technology policy and its impact on economic growth.
  2. Some studies show that environmental regulations can spur innovation among suppliers in industries like automotive, leading to more technological advancements.
  3. There is a growing recognition of how social media affects the spread of economic research, highlighting its importance in sharing knowledge.

Teacher Influence and Innovation

208 implied HN points • 15 Dec 23
🚌 Education Teaching Research Impact Mentorship Innovation
  1. Great teachers can influence their students' interests and innovative career paths.
  2. Studies show correlations between teachers and students in music, science, and research commercialization.
  3. Teacher influence on student achievements and research topics is significant, even in cases of random student-teacher matching.

When Technology Goes Bad

320 implied HN points • 16 May 23
🔬 Science Technology Economic Growth Climate change Renewable Energy
  1. Historically, technology has skewed towards 'good' due to various reasons like benefitting from invention, collaborative research, and technological capabilities for safety.
  2. Economic growth models explore the trade-off between innovation and safety, showing that as humans get richer, they may prioritize safety over growth.
  3. Investing in safety technologies alongside economic growth can mitigate risks posed by dangerous technology like fossil fuels, pointing towards a more sustainable future.

Two Announcements for PhD students

144 implied HN points • 29 Nov 23
🚌 Education Online course Innovation
  1. Join the free online Economics of Ideas, Science, and Innovation PhD short course from the Institute for Progress.
  2. Share your innovation job market paper with Matt Clancy for exposure to a wide audience.
  3. Spread the word about the call for innovation job market papers to interested individuals.

Big firms have different incentives

192 implied HN points • 24 Aug 23
💼 Business Innovation R&D Incentives Productivity
  1. Large firms conduct R&D at the same rate as small firms, but they may focus more on process innovations rather than product innovations.
  2. The cost spreading advantage incentivizes larger firms to focus on process innovation, spreading costs over multiple products.
  3. Larger firms may be less inclined to engage in product innovation due to the replacement effect, potentially competing against their own existing products.

Literature Reviews and Innovation

144 implied HN points • 02 Oct 23
🔬 Science Research Policy Innovation Literature Meta-analysis
  1. Literature reviews tend to be more highly cited than traditional research articles in academia and policy.
  2. Literature reviews help consolidate isolated niches of research into more central ideas in academia.
  3. Academic literature reviews can influence policy-making by providing a broader and more accurate picture of scientific findings.

October 2023 Updates

128 implied HN points • 24 Oct 23
🔬 Science Innovation
  1. Budget constraints in research funding can lead to bias towards conservatism in science.
  2. Knowledge spillovers occur frequently in biomedicine, impacting research categories.
  3. Citations received by economists decline substantially as they age.

And now for something completely different

192 implied HN points • 07 Jun 23
📚 Literature Societal collapse Academic Research
  1. Existential Crunch is a living literature review discussing societal collapse and academic research on the topic.
  2. The field of societal collapse research is still early in its development and urgent given current warnings of potential collapse.
  3. Initiatives like living literature reviews can support the synthesis of academic research on policy-relevant topics.

Biases Against Risky Research

224 implied HN points • 31 Mar 23
🔬 Science Research Bias Funding Academic
  1. Scientific institutions may be risk-averse and favor safe and incremental projects over transformative ones.
  2. Individual reviewers and averaging peer review scores may bias against high-risk, high-reward research proposals.
  3. In grant review processes, negative feedback tends to be more influential than positive feedback, leading to potential bias against novel research.

How to Impede Technological Progress

144 implied HN points • 13 Jul 23
🕹 Technology Innovation Policy Research Impact R&D
  1. Policy levers to slow technological progress can be classified into reverse push and pull policies
  2. Reverse push policies raise the costs of research, like restrictions on federal funding and safety regulations impacting chemistry labs
  3. Reverse pull policies reduce profitability of certain tech innovations, like carbon taxes and liability exposure, impacting R&D differently based on company size and innovation potential

Can taste beat peer review?

160 implied HN points • 24 Apr 23
🔬 Science Research Peer Review Decision-making Innovation
  1. Scientific peer review has its strengths, but it also has shortcomings like high costs and potential biases.
  2. Empowering individuals to make decisions on resource allocation can sometimes outperform peer review, especially for supporting less conventional or risky research projects.
  3. Studies show that editors can play a significant role in selecting high-impact or novel research papers, showcasing the importance of individual decision-makers in scientific publishing.

What does peer review know?

160 implied HN points • 19 Apr 23
🔬 Science Peer Review
  1. Peer review is a common way to allocate scientific resources and has been shown to predict scientific impact.
  2. Studies have found a positive correlation between peer review scores and measures of research impact, such as publications and citations.
  3. The strength of the association between peer review scores and research impact may vary, but overall peer review can provide valuable insights into the potential impact of scientific work.

Teaching Innovative Entrepreneurship

2 HN points • 19 Feb 24
🚌 Education Entrepreneurship STEM Innovation Training Mentorship
  1. Entrepreneurship training programs overall show a modest but positive impact on encouraging people to start a business and improving outcomes.
  2. Programs targeted towards science and engineering undergraduates have shown mixed results, with some studies indicating a small impact on entrepreneurial intentions.
  3. Highly selective programs for technology ventures, with intensive mentoring and networking opportunities, have demonstrated more compelling results in increasing entrepreneurship rates and success.