Risk Musings

Risk Musings explores risk management and systems thinking in the context of historical knowledge loss, AI advancements, crisis response, environmental challenges, corporate strategies, and societal resilience. It covers the imperfection in risk mitigation, the potential of biomimicry, and the necessity of embedding risk management early in systems.

Risk Management Systems Thinking Artificial Intelligence Environmental Sustainability Crisis Management Corporate Strategy Societal Resilience Economic Factors

The hottest Substack posts of Risk Musings

And their main takeaways

What We Lost and Never Knew

916 implied HN points • 14 Oct 23
💾 History Discovery Knowledge Survival Inventions Literacy
  1. Over the course of human history, a vast amount of knowledge and discovery has been lost due to the limited opportunities for people to pursue and share their ideas.
  2. Many brilliant individuals throughout history may have gone unrecognized and their innovative ideas lost, as they were focused primarily on survival rather than creativity and exploration.
  3. Today, we are fortunate to live in a time where access to resources like food, water, and shelter, along with advancements in medicine and technology, allow more individuals to focus on creativity and sharing ideas.

Optimism and Contrarianism

401 implied HN points • 03 Mar 24
🏥 Health & Wellness Climate change Education Healthcare systems Geopolitical Conflicts
  1. Optimism can coexist with contrarian thinking, prompting reflection on unseen factors in economic forecasts and societal trends.
  2. Critical challenges like climate change, education gaps, and healthcare system issues require immediate attention and action.
  3. Geopolitical conflicts and societal malaise are ongoing concerns, emphasizing the need for realistic optimism and proactive efforts to address global issues.

Publishing Amid the AI Deluge

458 implied HN points • 05 Feb 24
📚 Literature Fiction AI Publishing Writing Career
  1. During the pandemic, there was a surge in manuscript submissions to publishers.
  2. AI technology like ChatGPT is being used to generate online book content, affecting discoverability and quality.
  3. The future of novel-writing as a career is uncertain due to AI's impact on the industry, with potential polarization into superstars and hobbyists.
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The Can-versus-Should Question

343 implied HN points • 17 Mar 24
🕹 Technology Artificial Intelligence Jobs Internet regulation Data Privacy
  1. It's important to consider the balance between what we can do and what we should do with technology and advancements in society.
  2. Lessons from past experiences, like the unregulated internet explosion, emphasize the importance of having cautious conversations about the benefits and risks of technological progress.
  3. Discussing the 'can versus should' dilemma is crucial when considering the replacement of human labor with AI and robotics, and having a strong risk culture helps navigate these trade-offs effectively.

Risk Reading for the Holiday Season

458 implied HN points • 02 Dec 23
🚌 Education Reading Risk Books Writing
  1. Stephanie's risk-focused reading list includes books on AI, cyber-weapons, corporate influence, economic disparities, and hopeful history.
  2. The books cover topics like AI risk, cybersecurity, corporate influence, economic disparities, and hope for humanity.
  3. Stephanie is interested in forming a risk book club and reading books in a group setting.

Biomimicry versus Top-Down Engineering

573 implied HN points • 22 Jul 23
🔬 Science Genetics Biology Innovation Systems
  1. Nature builds from the bottom up through evolution and mutations, unlike top-down engineering in human systems.
  2. Biomimicry offers inspiration across various fields by learning from nature's efficient and resilient systems.
  3. Bottom-up building, like in the human brain, involves countless interactions that lead to emergent solutions, unlike enforced top-down strategies.

Covid, Contagion, and Looking Forward

401 implied HN points • 28 Oct 23
🏥 Health & Wellness Disease Public Health Therapeutics Immunity Research
  1. Covid has become a global experience with waning immunity and increased contagiousness.
  2. Understanding Covid's spread involves looking beyond R0 numbers to factors like effective reproduction rate and incubation period.
  3. To combat Covid, focus on reducing susceptibility through therapeutics, policy changes like banning gain-of-function research, and investing in public health infrastructure.

In Tackling Near-Term AI Risks, Old-School Monitoring and Filtering Have Value

401 implied HN points • 30 Sep 23
🕹 Technology AI Monitoring Risk management
  1. Old-school monitoring and filtering techniques can be valuable in addressing immediate AI risks.
  2. Implementing data loss prevention (DLP) strategies can help prevent data leakage into AI systems.
  3. Monitoring software with a focus on tracking uncertainties in large language models can be a useful tool to reduce falsehoods in AI-generated content.

Recession Tug-of-War: Downside versus Bright Side

401 implied HN points • 29 Jul 23
💰 Finance Economy Real Estate Inflation Insurance Climate change
  1. The US economy faces challenges like high interest rates, commercial real estate vacancies, inflation, and climate change.
  2. Despite challenges, positive factors like AI, consumer demand, residential real estate, and labor strength are helping the economy remain resilient.
  3. The tug-of-war between downside risks and bright side factors will determine the economic outcome in the short, medium, and long terms.