The hottest Real Estate Substack posts right now

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Top World Politics Topics

Groundly's Ground-Rent Grift

Progress and Poverty • 538 implied HN points • 31 Jan 24
💼 Business Real Estate
  1. Georgists scrutinize speculative investing in land, seeing land rent as unearned income.
  2. Groundly's offer of buying just-the-house and renting the land may seem affordable upfront but comes with hidden costs and responsibilities.
  3. Traditional lenders like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may have challenges financing Groundly-type leasebacks, raising concerns about the viability of the business model.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.10 million SAAR in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 20 Nov 25
💼 Business Real Estate
  1. Existing home sales went up by 1.2% in October, reaching a rate of 4.10 million homes sold per year. This shows a steady trend in the housing market over the last few years.
  2. The median price of homes increased by 2.1% from last year, reaching around $415,200. This suggests that home values are continuing to rise despite changes in sales.
  3. Inventory levels of unsold homes slightly decreased, showing only a small drop compared to typical seasonal trends. This could mean there's still a decent supply of homes available for buyers.

The Times They Are A'Tricky

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 25 Jul 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Regional housing sales and construction trends may not be as useful as they seem. The data can be confusing and may not reflect the real situation on the ground.
  2. New home inventory is increasing, which usually signals potential discounts in the market. But some believe it could lead to a recession.
  3. Home prices are significantly higher than they should be and may need to drop around 40% to reach normal levels. This presents both risks and opportunities for builders and investors.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.4% year-over-year in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 9 implied HN points • 30 Dec 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. U.S. house prices are only rising modestly: Case‑Shiller’s national index is up about 1.4% year‑over‑year and the FHFA index is up about 1.7%, with small monthly gains after prior declines.
  2. There is strong regional divergence: Midwestern and Northeastern metros (e.g., Chicago +5.8%, New York +5.0%) are leading, while many Sun Belt markets (e.g., Tampa −4.2%, Phoenix −1.5%, Dallas −1.5%, Miami −1.1%) are down.
  3. High mortgage rates are hurting affordability and price momentum—16 of 20 major cities fell month‑to‑month—so national home price gains lag consumer inflation and imply slight declines in real (inflation‑adjusted) home values.

Some Thoughts On Using Auctions For Land Valuation

Splitting Infinity • 59 implied HN points • 14 Feb 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Auctions can be considered as a method for assessing land values without the need for state-run assessments, allowing the market to determine the value of land.
  2. The use of auctions for land valuation can ensure transparency and fairness by providing everyone with the opportunity to bid on a piece of land publicly.
  3. While auctions may introduce some complexities like bargaining over home prices, they can still lead to reasonably accurate land valuations and generate significant tax revenue.
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House hacking a $900k triplex in Nashville

The Leonard Letter • 58 implied HN points • 09 Feb 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. House hacking a $900k triplex in Nashville did not prove to be a profitable investment.
  2. Utilizing tools like Innago for property management can enhance efficiency and tenant satisfaction.
  3. Despite the renovation and marketing efforts, the property's financials did not justify the investment decision.

One Big Way to Boost Housing Supply and Reduce Investor-Owned Housing

The New Urban Order • 119 implied HN points • 12 Jun 23
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. The housing market is facing challenges with low supply and high demand, keeping housing prices inflated despite high mortgage rates.
  2. Creating a time-sensitive incentive program can push real estate investors to sell to homeowners, potentially boosting housing supply and lowering prices.
  3. Offering a one-year tax amnesty on capital gains taxes for investors who sell to homeowners could help unlock housing stock, shift ownership, and improve market dynamics.

Coming soonish

The War Room • 117 implied HN points • 29 Sep 23
💼 Business Real Estate
  1. The author is launching a new show/newsletter called Deal Flow focusing on M&A and other topics.
  2. There is a possibility of a second season of the Future of Tech.
  3. The author plans to resume regular content creation.

You got to pay people to work in the suburbs

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 30 Jan 26
💼 Business Real Estate
  1. Moving offices to the suburbs often increases most employees' commute times because public transit is built for suburb‑to‑city travel, not suburb‑to‑suburb trips.
  2. Companies pay skilled workers more to compensate for longer commutes—roughly a 10–20% wage uplift per extra hour—which can amount to a large effective payment for travel time.
  3. Relocating work to the suburbs only makes economic sense for low- and medium‑skilled white‑collar roles (like support and admin) and only if rent savings are big enough to offset higher wages for affected staff.

The Housing Shortage by Metro Area, Part 3

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 189 implied HN points • 29 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Real Estate
  1. Many cities have the ability to build more homes. This could help solve the housing shortage that many areas are facing right now.
  2. Some regions struggle with local rules that make it hard to build new homes, while others have been affected by tight mortgage lending practices.
  3. The Midwest has been particularly hit by the lack of new housing construction, even with growing demand, mainly due to mortgage issues from the last decade.

Question #9 for 2026: What will happen with house prices in 2026?

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 9 implied HN points • 24 Dec 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. National house prices were mostly flat in 2025 with small year‑over‑year gains around 1–2%, so the outlook for 2026 is uncertain.
  2. Short‑term indicators (Case‑Shiller, Freddie Mac, NAR median) show only slight month‑to‑month gains and suggest year‑over‑year changes will likely stay in that small range or edge down in the near term.
  3. Supply and demand are the key drivers and there are big regional differences — areas with high inventory and rising months‑of‑supply could see local price declines even if the national average remains flat.

01/30/24 - The entirety of Ukraine, working its ass off in total war for over a year, cannot match up to even Evergrande as a single company.

Moly’s Substack • 58 implied HN points • 31 Jan 24
💼 Business Real Estate
  1. Even the entirety of Ukraine in total war for over a year cannot match the debt of just a single company like Evergrande.
  2. Jobs like sorting packages and working in a production line can be extremely exhausting and pay very little.
  3. The debt of Evergrande alone is larger than the debt of the entirety of Ukraine, along with many other real estate companies combined.

Every Housing Down Cycle is "unhappy in its own way"

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 24 Nov 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Every housing downturn has its own unique challenges. Just like unhappy families, each downturn has different reasons why it's tough.
  2. It's important to avoid comparing today's housing market with the past bubble and bust. The lending standards today are much stricter, making a big difference.
  3. Demographics play a big role in the housing market. Today, we're seeing a slower population growth compared to the early 80s, which affects house prices differently.

Updating my priors on missing middle

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 379 implied HN points • 03 Mar 24
💼 Business Real Estate
  1. Missing middle housing developments can be more impactful in addressing housing affordability issues than previously thought.
  2. Simply advocating for 'build more' without considering the complexity and various factors at play may not fully address housing supply constraints.
  3. Increasing the construction of 'missing middle' housing units significantly could play a crucial role in normalizing the American housing market and addressing housing shortages.

May 2025 Residential Construction

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 18 Jun 25
💼 Business Real Estate
  1. Multi-family home construction is back to normal levels seen before COVID-19. This means more apartments and similar housing are being built again.
  2. Single-family home construction is still taking longer than usual. Builders are facing challenges, but they're working through them.
  3. Overall, the U.S. housing construction market is facing some issues like high mortgage rates and tariffs on materials. This has led to a drop in new builds, but it's not all bad news.

How MLB's Atlanta Braves Built A $1 Billion Real Estate Business

Huddle Up • 41 implied HN points • 11 Aug 25
💼 Business Real Estate
  1. The Atlanta Braves have built a $1 billion real estate business around their stadium, which helps increase their revenue significantly. This model allows them to earn money from various sources, not just from tickets and sponsorships.
  2. Their mixed-use development, called The Battery, attracts millions of visitors and generates a large portion of their revenue, with many visitors spending hours there. This shows that expanding into real estate can greatly benefit sports franchises.
  3. Unlike many teams that have to share their income with the league, the Braves keep all the profits from The Battery. This gives them a unique advantage to grow financially without the usual revenue-sharing obligations.

The Outlook for Home Sales

Home Economics • 98 implied HN points • 11 Jul 23
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Mortgage rates are high and home prices have not dropped, leading to decreased affordability and a decline in home sales.
  2. This post discusses the impact of economic factors on the housing market.
  3. The newsletter focuses on using data visualization to analyze economic news, particularly in the housing sector.

The Artificial Intelligence Paradox

PropTech Future • 98 implied HN points • 10 May 23
🕹 Technology Real Estate
  1. Artificial Intelligence is becoming widespread and can have a significant impact on various industries.
  2. Personal technology like smartphones, while convenient, can blur the lines between work and personal life, impacting mental health.
  3. Companies will need to adopt AI to stay competitive, as it has the potential to automate processes and change entire industries.

Too High for Too Long?

Modern Value Investing • 98 implied HN points • 06 Aug 23
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Inflation measures are flawed, leading to skepticism about high interest rates, causing uncertainty for the US economy.
  2. The current rate hike cycle is more aggressive than previous cycles, potentially risking a recession in 2024.
  3. Challenges in real estate, student loan debts, and credit card debts, along with aggressive hiring, may indicate shaky ground for the US economy.

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 19 Nov 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. In October, existing home sales increased slightly to an annual rate of 4.09 million, which is a small rise from September and up from last year. This shows a steady demand in the housing market.
  2. The median price for single-family homes also went up by about 2.2% compared to last year, indicating that home values are on the rise.
  3. Analysts suggest that the market's estimate of the neutral interest rate, known as R*, is around 1.5%. This estimate aligns well with several economic models, showing a consistent outlook.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2025

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 9 implied HN points • 16 Dec 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Housing inventory has risen sharply toward pre-pandemic levels while existing-home sales remain depressed, which is putting downward pressure on prices.
  2. Lower mortgage rates have boosted purchase mortgage applications, but rising unemployment (around 4.6%) and weak sales mean those applications haven't yet translated into substantially more closings.
  3. Price indexes show only modest year-over-year gains (about 1–2%), with appreciation steadily slowing and reported data lagging earlier market moves.

Freddie Mac House Price Index Declined in June; Up 2.0% Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 31 Jul 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. The Freddie Mac House Price Index dropped by 0.20% month-over-month in June, showing a consistent decline over the last few months. This suggests that house prices are under pressure right now.
  2. Year-over-year, the index is up 2.0%, but this is a decrease from 2.3% in May, indicating that the growth rate is slowing down.
  3. Punta Gorda, Florida is now the worst-performing city for house prices, with many cities, especially in Florida, experiencing significant declines from their previous highs.

Update: The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 129 implied HN points • 09 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. There won't be a big drop in home prices because most people aren't selling under distress like before. Homeowners are in a better position now with more equity and low-rate mortgages.
  2. Mortgage debt is increasing, but not alarmingly. The current lending standards are stricter than during past bubbles, so it's less risky.
  3. Many new mortgages are going to borrowers with strong credit scores. This means that lending practices are healthy and borrowers are more qualified.

Inside the Affordability Crisis

Net Interest • 12 implied HN points • 21 Nov 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. The US mortgage market has materially shrunk relative to the economy and housing wealth because the big refinancing boom ended once rates rose, removing a huge source of mortgage flow.
  2. New mortgage activity is now driven by purchases, but investors and lenders are very risk averse and credit standards plus regulatory costs have tightened, so many buyers get denied or face pricier loans.
  3. High home prices combined with much higher mortgage rates have made moving and first-time buying unaffordable for many, raising the average buyer age and slowing loan growth for banks and originators.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-November 2025

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 12 Nov 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. There are more homes available for sale now compared to last year, but the growth in inventory is slowing down. This means homebuyers have more choices but the supply isn't increasing as quickly as before.
  2. Despite more listings, sales of existing homes are down compared to previous years, and home prices are under pressure. This suggests buyers might find some great deals, but sellers could face challenges.
  3. New homebuilders are struggling but not in a crisis like before. They have unsold homes and are lowering prices, trying to compete with the growing number of existing homes on the market.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 11 Nov 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. In October, home sales rose slightly by 0.4% compared to last year, while last month they were up 7.6%. This shows a slow down in the market.
  2. New listings of homes for sale increased by 4% from last year, but they are still lower than what they were in 2019.
  3. Active inventory of homes is up 18.1% compared to last year, indicating more options for buyers, though the situation varies by region.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 9 implied HN points • 09 Dec 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Home sales in early-reporting markets fell sharply year‑over‑year (around 10.8%), though seasonally adjusted national figures may show only a small decline or be roughly flat because of seasonal factors and one fewer working day.
  2. New listings were down year‑over‑year (about 3.5%) and remain well below pre‑pandemic activity, roughly 21% lower than October 2019.
  3. Active inventory rose about 19.4% year‑over‑year, but there are large regional differences — some markets like Denver are up sharply while others like San Diego are down.

Will House Prices Decline Nationally in 2025?

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 14 Jul 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Most predictions suggest that U.S. house prices will go up slightly in 2025, around 3% to 4%.
  2. The author's early view indicates that house prices might remain mostly flat, with some areas possibly experiencing declines.
  3. Currently, there is more housing inventory, which is causing the price growth to slow down across the nation.

Credit Where Credit Is Due: Nashville & Charlotte!

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 105 implied HN points • 30 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Real Estate
  1. Nashville has a unique housing law that helps build affordable starter homes, making it a great place for newcomers. It's important to look at different regions when discussing housing costs.
  2. Charlotte also deserves recognition for managing housing prices better than expected. It's not just the well-known cities that have good housing policies.
  3. Overall, housing costs have risen in Nashville, Charlotte, and Austin over the years, but these cities still have relatively better conditions compared to others. Keeping an eye on varied areas can provide a fuller picture of the housing market.

IWG: A Wonderful Company at a Wonderful Price

Modern Value Investing • 39 implied HN points • 11 Feb 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. IWG has a solid legacy business model of providing flexible workspaces and is trading at a great price, making it an attractive investment option.
  2. IWG's Worka segment is a fast-growing and profitable marketplace business, showing solid growth and expected to generate significant revenue.
  3. IWG is transitioning to a capital-light model and aims to become a major player in managed and franchised office space, with significant growth potential in the untapped market of office real estate.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.35 million SAAR in December; Lowest Annual Sales since 1995

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 4 implied HN points • 14 Jan 26
💼 Business Real Estate
  1. Existing-home sales rose in December to a 4.35 million SAAR, up 5.1% from November and about 1.4% from a year earlier. Despite the monthly gain, annual sales remain at their lowest level since 1995.
  2. Housing inventory fell sharply in December to 1.18 million units and months-of-supply dropped to 3.3 months, reflecting seasonal lows. Yet inventory was up 3.5% year‑over‑year and, on a months‑of‑supply basis, is higher than before the pandemic because sales have fallen even more.
  3. Median existing-home prices increased only modestly, rising 0.4% year‑over‑year to $405,400, indicating slight price growth.

Warden Q3 Letter

Warden Capital • 78 implied HN points • 17 Oct 23
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. The quarter felt stable until rates spiked, creating challenges in lending and investment sales markets.
  2. While interest rates have increased rapidly, recent inflation data has been promising, indicating a potential decrease in inflation.
  3. Real estate prices increase during high inflation periods, offsetting the impact of higher interest rates in the long run.

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in June and a Look Ahead to July Sales

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 25 Jul 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Home sales are down compared to last year, and we might see sales in 2025 be similar to those in 2024, which were already low.
  2. Inventories are increasing, meaning there are more homes available for sale, which could lead to price drops in certain areas.
  3. July sales are expected to remain steady compared to July last year, as mortgage rates and working days are similar.

Lawler: Single-Family Rent Trends at INVH and AMH

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 04 Nov 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Invitation Homes and American Homes 4 Rent are two big players in the single-family rental market. They're important to watch because they can show how rent prices are changing.
  2. Recent trends indicate fluctuations in single-family rental prices. It's helpful to pay attention to these trends if you're interested in renting or investing in housing.
  3. Understanding these rental trends can give you insights into the overall housing market. It can help you make better decisions about where to live or invest.

House hacking a $998k duplex in Oakland

The Leonard Letter • 78 implied HN points • 08 Sep 23
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. House hacking a $998k duplex in Oakland may not be financially viable in the short-term due to high monthly costs.
  2. Consider alternative rental strategies like furnishing rooms for students or exploring short/medium-term housing to increase income potential.
  3. In markets like Oakland, renting may be more financially beneficial than buying, especially with low interest rates and restrictions on potential rental income.

Who wants to make a killing together?

Innovation Nation • 78 implied HN points • 09 Aug 23
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Identifying buildings likely to default can be done using AI and various data sources.
  2. Banks could be potential counter-parties for this investment strategy.
  3. There is potential for huge profits by betting against commercial real estate using a well-informed strategy.

We(Didn't)Work

Innovation Nation • 78 implied HN points • 08 Aug 23
💼 Business Real Estate
  1. WeWork is facing financial troubles, with a net loss of $387mm and a stock down 30% in after hours trading.
  2. If WeWork goes bankrupt, it could leave 600,000 members without office space, impacting many lives and companies.
  3. A potential collapse of WeWork could lead to the largest real estate default in history, with $15.6 billion in lease obligations at risk.