In My Tribe • 455 implied HN points • 14 Feb 26
- A public bet claims the economy will stay basically normal through February 2029 using concrete metrics and a strict condition that no occupational category loses 50% or more of its jobs, but that hinges on how categories are defined.
- The writer thinks the bettor has roughly a 60% chance of winning over three years but expects AI to cause much bigger economic and labor-market changes over a 6–8 year horizon.
- Quick uptake of new AI tools by younger workers suggests they could outcompete today’s workforce, and ambiguous terms in short-term wagers make those bets risky.