The hottest Political trends Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Like 2008—but Better

Magic + Loss • 477 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Public Opinion Political trends Democratic Party Campaigns
  1. Democratic excitement for the upcoming election is higher than it was in 2008, with 77% of Democrats feeling enthusiastic. This shows a strong positive shift compared to the 50% enthusiastic in 2016.
  2. The energy and enthusiasm can be seen in rallies and public engagement, indicating that this election could be pivotal.
  3. Experts believe this enthusiasm for the election is significant and might play a crucial role in the outcome.

2024 Presidential Election Night Analysis Guide

COVID Reason • 376 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Demographics Political trends Analysis
  1. In the last two presidential elections, small vote margins decided the winners. It shows how every vote really counts.
  2. It's important to watch specific voter groups like Gen Z males and working-class women, as their choices can greatly affect the results.
  3. Each state has different trends and thresholds for winning, so knowing the local demographics can help predict who might win.

Reality Check

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 2537 implied HN points • 23 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polls Candidates Political trends Voter Behavior
  1. Polling shows a tight race, which might favor Trump since he's historically done well in similar situations. Key voters who are likely to turn out are showing signs they might back him.
  2. Democrats, especially Kamala Harris, are facing issues with voter turnout and are seen as frustrated. Trump, on the other hand, appears to be energized and is campaigning actively in swing states.
  3. Many Americans feel dissatisfied with their current situation, and they trust Republicans more on major issues like the economy and crime. This shift in sentiment could impact the election results.

SHOW NOTES: We Have Some Trends

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 1498 implied HN points • 25 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Political trends Campaigns Polls
  1. Early voting trends are showing an unusual pattern in several states, like Nevada where Republicans are voting more than Democrats. This could indicate a shift in voter sentiment ahead of the election.
  2. In Georgia, a significant number of early voters didn't participate in the last two elections, and there’s a noticeable decline in black voters compared to previous years. This change could affect overall turnout and results.
  3. Polling shows the race is tight, with a sense of momentum building for Trump. However, the election outcome still depends on actual voter turnout, and anything can happen between now and then.

Goodbye to 2024, America's Craziest Year

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 11962 implied HN points • 31 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political trends Media influence Public Opinion Government Policy Social Issues
  1. Many Americans have started ignoring the news because they believe it will be bad. However, there are still many positive things happening that they miss out on.
  2. Access to healthcare has improved so much that even the poorest today can receive better care than some of the richest people did in the past.
  3. 2024 highlighted a spiritual crisis in America where extreme partisan beliefs began to crumble, showing a shift away from political conflicts toward a more hopeful outlook.
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Always Bet Against the Davos Man

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 2684 implied HN points • 23 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political trends Global events Economic Policy Corporate Influence Social Issues
  1. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, the mood has shifted from disdain for Trump to a more interested attitude in 2025. Elite business leaders from Europe now want to engage with his ideas.
  2. While the forum continues to push topics like Environmental and Social Governance and Diversity, the actual conversations among executives reveal a different focus. They seem more optimistic about the changing American sentiments.
  3. Despite the fancy corporate language about sustainability, the reality for many leaders might be more about capitalizing on current trends than sticking strictly to these ideals.

CDU and SPD condemned to betray their voters in the next Coalition of Failure, as Germans continue to abandon the cartel parties in droves

eugyppius: a plague chronicle • 261 implied HN points • 24 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Parties Coalitions Voter Behavior Political trends
  1. Many voters in Germany are leaving the traditional political parties, like CDU and SPD, which might lead to them not representing their followers well in future coalitions.
  2. The election results showed a growing divide, with new parties rising in popularity while older ones, especially the SPD, faced major losses and changes in leadership.
  3. The AfD has gained significant support and could challenge the existing parties, suggesting a shift in the political landscape that might make future governance difficult.

What drove Asian and Hispanic voters to the right in 2024

Noahpinion • 16529 implied HN points • 20 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting behavior Political trends Demographics Party Dynamics
  1. Asian and Hispanic voters shifted to the right in the 2024 election due to a mix of economic concerns and perceived disconnection from the Democratic Party's values. Many felt that their priorities were not being addressed.
  2. For Asian voters, issues like crime and education were key factors. Many were frustrated with rising crime rates and felt that the Democrats were not prioritizing their safety and educational opportunities.
  3. Hispanic voters also expressed economic concerns, especially about inflation and rising costs. Some felt that the Democratic Party was out of touch with their family values and priorities, contributing to their shift toward Republicans.

Silver Bulletin pollster ratings, 2025 update

Silver Bulletin • 373 implied HN points • 17 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling Elections Data Analysis Political trends Political Reporting
  1. The latest pollster ratings show which pollsters are most accurate and transparent based on their past performances. This helps understand which ones might do well in future elections.
  2. New data added to the ratings includes results from the 2024 presidential, congressional, and gubernatorial elections. Lots of new polls have shifted some ratings, but the top pollsters generally stayed the same.
  3. They measure pollster accuracy using different ratings and scores that consider factors like bias toward political parties and how close their predictions were to actual results.

Key Swing State Counties to Watch in the 2024 Election (Part 1)

COVID Reason • 257 implied HN points • 22 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Analysis Political trends
  1. Key swing states in the 2024 election include Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Virginia. These are crucial for determining who wins.
  2. Certain counties within these states, called bellwether counties, often reflect overall election outcomes. Winning these counties can show how the state—and even the national election—might go.
  3. The article highlights specific counties to watch, like Northampton in Pennsylvania and Maricopa in Arizona, and notes how shifts in voter trends can impact election results.

On immigration, what Americans want is democratic control

Noahpinion • 16823 implied HN points • 28 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Immigration Policy Public Opinion Political trends Democracy Election Impact
  1. Many Americans want more control over immigration because they feel it should be a democratic process where everyone has a say. They want to choose who comes into the country.
  2. Polls show that while many people support high-skilled immigration and a pathway to citizenship, there is also support for deporting those who are in the country illegally. This shows mixed feelings about immigration.
  3. The recent surge in asylum seekers has frustrated many because it seems to bypass established immigration laws. People want better management of immigration to reflect their democratic choices.

Don't Panic

Freddie deBoer • 7982 implied HN points • 14 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Policies Governance Political trends Public Opinion
  1. Things may seem really bad right now, but we've seen tough times before, and life keeps going. It's important to remember that this is just a part of life, not an end.
  2. Trump's first term showed that he wasn't great at getting his policies passed, even with a Republican majority. His second term might not be as effective as people fear.
  3. Doomsaying often comes from a place of self-importance, and we should be careful not to exaggerate the current situation. It's okay to be concerned, but let's not panic.

Are we entering a Conservative Golden Age?

Silver Bulletin • 1202 implied HN points • 23 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political trends Voting Patterns Public Opinion Policy Analysis Cultural Shifts
  1. A Conservative Golden Age might be emerging, as recent policies and leadership are leaning strongly to the right. This could mean significant changes in areas like immigration and social rights.
  2. Public opinion often reacts against a government seen as too conservative or too liberal. If Trump’s policies are perceived as overreaching, it may lead to a shift back to more liberal governance in future elections.
  3. Historically, American politics swings between conservative and liberal eras, influenced by major crises. This suggests uncertainty about whether we're starting a new conservative era or if the current situation is temporary.

Berkeley's Evolution On Housing

The Discourse Lounge • 1557 implied HN points • 23 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Housing policy Urban Development Local government Political trends
  1. Berkeley has shifted from being anti-housing to supporting more development. This change started with more people believing that building homes can help fix the housing crisis.
  2. The recent elections showed that urbanist candidates, who want to build more housing, are becoming popular. Voters are now more open to ideas like upzoning and building densely, which wasn't the case a decade ago.
  3. There's a new agreement among city leaders about the need for more housing, shifting away from anti-urban policies. This consensus is important because it allows the city to focus on other issues instead of constantly debating housing.

Congrats To Polymarket, But I Still Think They Were Mispriced

Astral Codex Ten • 16656 implied HN points • 07 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Forecasting Betting Market Analysis Political trends
  1. Polymarket, a prediction market, did well during the recent election by accurately calling results and gaining popularity. However, there are still concerns about accuracy in their pricing, particularly regarding Trump shares.
  2. It's important not to overreact to single significant events when making predictions. Even if things seem to favor one hypothesis after an event, it doesn't mean we should change our overall beliefs drastically.
  3. The reliability of prediction markets like Polymarket compared to non-money forecasting sites like Metaculus is still up for debate. Past performance shows non-money forecasters often have better accuracy, and big bets from individuals can create misleading odds in prediction markets.

Why tech went MAGA

Startup Strategies • 142 implied HN points • 07 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political trends Tech Impact Cultural Shifts Public Opinion
  1. The relationship between technocrats and the Democratic party has changed. They used to work together but are now distant.
  2. Tech leaders have shifted their focus and support towards MAGA, which reflects a change in political allegiance.
  3. The past optimism in tech, seen during the Dot-Com boom, is contrasted by current sentiments of mistrust and division in the industry.

Waiting for the Great American Realignment

American Dreaming • 107 implied HN points • 10 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political trends Elections Voting behavior Party Affiliation Public Perception
  1. Recent elections show that party loyalty is still strong, with very few voters switching from one party to another. Most Democrats and Republicans are sticking with their party's candidates.
  2. Voter demographics are changing, especially when it comes to education and income. More educated voters are leaning towards Democrats, while non-college educated voters are increasingly supporting Republicans.
  3. Despite claims of a major political shift, the overall patterns in voting and party support remain surprisingly stable. There's no clear evidence of a significant realignment in American politics.

Freighthopping

Doomberg • 7015 implied HN points • 03 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Governance Energy Policy Political trends Environmental Policy
  1. Colorado has shifted from a swing state leaning Republican to strongly Democratic in recent elections. This change reflects a broader trend of leftward political movement in the state.
  2. Governor Jared Polis is promoting renewable energy, especially wind power, which now generates a significant portion of Colorado's electricity. He seems to be inspired by policies from other progressive leaders.
  3. An interesting proposal called SunTrain aims to transport renewable energy using trains instead of traditional power lines. This could provide a new way to move excess energy while utilizing existing rail infrastructure.

Are you high agency?

Taylor Lorenz's Newsletter • 3642 implied HN points • 07 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Government Media Social Issues Political trends Employment
  1. The term 'high agency' is trending in Silicon Valley, describing people who seize opportunities and take action.
  2. This phrase hints at a strong individualistic mindset, which can overlook various challenges people face in life.
  3. The struggles of journalists like Miranda Green highlight serious issues in the media industry, emphasizing the need for independent reporting.

Why a MAGA influencer turned on Trump

Taylor Lorenz's Newsletter • 3971 implied HN points • 31 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Influence Social media Elections Youth Politics Political trends
  1. A MAGA influencer named Clarkson Lawson changed his political views and voted for Kamala Harris, surprising many of his fans. His journey shows how influencers can evolve and reshape their beliefs over time.
  2. There's a legal battle between major talent agencies in Hollywood, with one agency accusing another of violating industry rules. This conflict highlights the competitive nature of the entertainment business.
  3. Zyn nicotine pouches have become very popular among younger people, especially for managing long workdays and social nights. Their rise reflects a trend in how individuals are seeking new ways to cope with modern stress.

Do you know? Is your county red or blue? Take a history tour!

COVID Reason • 118 implied HN points • 11 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political trends Voting Patterns Historical Analysis
  1. You can easily see how political views in different counties have changed over time. It's interesting to watch states like Florida and California shift from one political side to another.
  2. There’s a new tool that helps visualize these political trends at the county level, making it easier to understand local changes over the years.
  3. New members have a limited-time chance to access exclusive political insights and resources, which can help them stay informed about current events.

Two Ways to Understand the "Vibe Shift"

Richard Hanania's Newsletter • 2511 implied HN points • 27 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Conservatism Cultural Shifts Political trends Media influence Public Opinion
  1. There seems to be a 'vibe shift' happening in conservative culture, where they are gaining more popularity and recognition. This shift is surprising given past perceptions of conservatives as being less culturally influential.
  2. The current political climate shows that even small victories can have large cultural impacts. This raises questions about whether the shift will continue or if it is just a temporary trend.
  3. As the conservative vibe shifts, it challenges old beliefs about the hostility of institutions like Big Tech. This suggests that the relationship between conservatives and these institutions might be changing.

What the state of the US economy can tell us about Trump's populist appeal

Econ Populi • 19 implied HN points • 24 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Populism Elections Political trends Governance
  1. Bad economies can help populist candidates win elections. When people's lives are hard, they may choose someone who promises big changes, even if that candidate has been less successful.
  2. Populists like Donald Trump can be popular even when the economy is doing fine. Many voters don't rely on economic indicators and instead follow narratives that make them feel understood.
  3. Good economic governance might not be enough for traditional parties to win against populists. They need to connect with voters on a personal level and address their feelings about the elites and the current system.

Who Is Going to be the Next Mayor of New York?

Political Currents by Ross Barkan • 11 implied HN points • 26 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Candidates Polling Governance Political trends
  1. Mayor Eric Adams is likely to lose the re-election in 2026 due to low approval ratings and issues of corruption in his administration.
  2. There are currently five main Democratic candidates who might run to replace him, with some emerging women candidates as potential long-shots.
  3. Former Governor Andrew Cuomo is showing interest in running again and seems to be leading in the polls, making the race more competitive.

Wang Jisi on U.S. society, foreign policy, & China-U.S. relations

Pekingnology • 75 implied HN points • 23 May 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Immigration China relations Political trends
  1. The U.S. is seeing a shift in demographics, with minority groups growing faster than the white population. This change could affect the country's political landscape in the future.
  2. Trump's approach to immigration is complex and may not significantly stop illegal immigration. The U.S. is unlikely to become closed off completely due to its reliance on immigrants for economic growth.
  3. China and the U.S. still have areas for cooperation, especially in trade and technology, despite their rivalry. Both countries benefit from maintaining some level of engagement.

Indifference to Woke Isn't Enough

Richard Hanania's Newsletter • 3950 implied HN points • 12 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political trends Party Dynamics Election Strategies Activism
  1. Democrats need to actively confront woke activists, not just ignore them, to gain people's trust on social issues. Simply being indifferent won't work.
  2. Many voters are concerned about wokeness impacting Democratic policies, especially around identity issues like sports and affirmative action. This shows that people connect these views with the party as a whole.
  3. Political parties are made up of different groups, and changing one leader's image won't change the party's values overnight. The overall coalition matters more in the long run.

Polling is becoming more of an art than a science

Silver Bulletin • 214 implied HN points • 16 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling Political trends Voter Behavior Data Analysis
  1. Polling accuracy is becoming less predictable and more nuanced. Pollsters are feeling cautiously optimistic this time, although mistakes still happened in predicting election outcomes.
  2. Pollsters are likely to stick with their current methods for 2026. Many have already adapted and believe the changes they've made are effective enough for now.
  3. There is no single best way to conduct polls anymore. Different methods and tech are used by different polling organizations, which can lead to varied results.

'Libbing out' is the latest irony-fueled coping mechanism

Taylor Lorenz's Newsletter • 3403 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political trends Social media Youth Engagement Democratic Party
  1. Young progressives are using a term called 'libbing out' to humorously embrace mainstream Democratic politics. It's a way for them to ignore their usual cynicism and feel optimistic, even if just for a little while.
  2. 'Libbing out' is partly a reaction to feeling overwhelmed by the state of politics. People want a break from all the negativity and are choosing to focus on a more comfortable political fantasy, even if it's temporary.
  3. While 'libbing out' helps people cope, it's also critiqued as a shallow approach that doesn’t address deeper political issues. Many believe that simply supporting Democrats won't solve bigger problems in the system.

*Open Borders* Back in Print!

Bet On It • 140 implied HN points • 16 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Immigration Policy Libertarianism Demographics Political trends
  1. The book 'Open Borders' is back in print and is considered the author's best work. It's aimed at showing the benefits of immigration.
  2. Despite fears about immigration policies worsening during crises, the author notes that immigration has generally returned to normal levels post-Covid.
  3. The author believes that immigration restrictions are harmful and that there's still hope for better immigration policies in the future, even amidst political challenges.

Let Them Eat Mars Rocks!

Daniel Pinchbeck’s Newsletter • 17 implied HN points • 07 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Government Policy Leadership Political trends Socioeconomics
  1. Musk is gaining too much power without proper checks or balances, which can be dangerous for society. His actions are compared to a hostile takeover of the US government, reflecting a neglect of important social needs.
  2. The government is undergoing significant changes that seem focused on consolidating Musk's control rather than genuinely improving people's lives or democracy.
  3. There is a deeper problem in the political system as many refuse to acknowledge America's declining influence and challenges, leading to desperation and populist movements that could worsen the issues at hand.

US Fights Democracy Abroad

Nonzero Newsletter • 372 implied HN points • 13 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Foreign Policy Democracy Political trends Geopolitics
  1. The U.S. is facing criticism for overlooking democratic backsliding in allied countries, like Romania and Georgia, to focus on countering Russian influence.
  2. AI technology is causing concerns, with incidents involving chatbots leading to severe mental health issues, highlighting the need for better safety measures in the industry.
  3. There is a political shift happening, with traditional left and right divides blurring, as some Democrats and Republicans are finding common ground against the political establishment.

Donald and the Pincer

The Abbey of Misrule • 498 implied HN points • 07 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political trends Populism Media influence Cultural critique Globalization
  1. Many people feel frustrated with the political and media establishment, and they want change. This feeling is similar to what led to movements like Brexit and the rise of populist parties.
  2. Progressive leftism and corporate capitalism are working together more than ever. Both are promoting a modern world that values technology and globalism, often ignoring local traditions and cultures.
  3. There's a growing push for a different approach rooted in local identities and community values. Some believe we need to focus on what truly matters in our lives, rather than getting caught up in modern political divisions.

BIWEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-12-28 Sa

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 169 implied HN points • 28 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political trends Government Accountability Election Dynamics Social Issues Foreign Policy
  1. There's a trend in America moving away from clear laws towards decisions based on discretion, which could lead to corruption. It's important to have clear rules to prevent misuse of power.
  2. The idea of conquering places for resources is outdated. It's much more efficient to trade for what we need instead of trying to take over land.
  3. In Berkeley, there's a shift from strict neighborhood controls to more inclusive housing policies. This change reflects a desire for more affordable living in the area.

⤴⤵ Up Wing/Down Wing #22

Faster, Please! • 639 implied HN points • 26 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Energy Policy Economic Policy Political trends Environmental Issues Technology Policy
  1. A semiconductor plant in Arizona is performing better than one in Taiwan, which is good news for US manufacturing growth. This means the US is making strides in producing important tech products domestically.
  2. Construction productivity is struggling, showing negative growth for decades. Long approval times and strict regulations are hurting the industry's efficiency.
  3. More Democrats are starting to support nuclear power as a cleaner energy source. This shift is important for addressing climate change and meeting energy demands, as even major tech companies back nuclear projects.

17 Thoughts on the Election

Richard Hanania's Newsletter • 1536 implied HN points • 04 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political trends Party Dynamics Public Opinion
  1. Trump has a unique appeal that other Republicans struggle to replicate. His strong support shows he stands out in the party.
  2. Abortion might be a key issue in the election, especially for women voters. Depending on the outcome, it could change how politics handles abortion going forward.
  3. Trump may redirect blame for abortion issues to pro-life supporters if things don't go well for him, which might shift their influence in the GOP.

The Republican Party is Doomed

Tracing Woodgrains • 2673 implied HN points • 01 Dec 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Political trends Conservative movement
  1. Republicans are losing capacity to run institutions beyond elections due to age and education polarization
  2. The political divide among young, educated professionals is shifting towards liberals and socialists rather than Republicans and Democrats
  3. Republicans lack talent in governance compared to Democrats, even in the conservative intellectual sphere

Why Does Donald Trump Keep Happening?

The Ruffian • 270 implied HN points • 09 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Analysis Voting behavior Political trends Party Dynamics
  1. Donald Trump keeps winning elections because he connects with a lot of people's feelings and fears. Many voters feel forgotten, and he makes them feel heard.
  2. The Democratic Party may be losing support because they struggle to relate to everyday issues that concern regular folks. They need to communicate better with their base.
  3. Looking ahead, it's important for all parties to listen more and understand what people really want. Engaging with the community can help rebuild trust and support.

What's Next?

Political Currents by Ross Barkan • 42 implied HN points • 20 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political trends Social movements Civic engagement Political parties Cultural Shifts
  1. America is experiencing a cooling period after years of intense political activity. People are starting to reflect and think for themselves more than follow the loudest voices in politics.
  2. There's a growing shift in American culture away from traditional institutions. Many people now seek personal improvement and alternative interests instead of blindly following leaders or celebrities.
  3. The future of American politics is uncertain. While there’s still engagement and activism, there is also a trend where people may want to 'drop out' from typical political battles and focus on their personal lives and beliefs.

People Want A Political Revolution. Let's Give Them One!

Creative Destruction • 26 implied HN points • 26 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Reform Democracy Political trends Authoritarianism Public Opinion
  1. Many people are unhappy with politics and feel that their needs are not being met by the current system. This shows a desire for change in how political systems operate.
  2. Authoritarian trends are growing, and more individuals believe that the system is failing them. This trend highlights the need for a response to their concerns.
  3. This conversation isn't just about politics; it's about understanding people's real needs and finding ways to create a system that works better for them.