CalculatedRisk Newsletter

The CalculatedRisk Newsletter focuses on in-depth analysis and updates on the real estate market, including housing sales, mortgage rates, housing inventory, credit scores, market dynamics, policy proposals, and economic implications of events like the pandemic on housing. It combines data-driven insights with forecasts and trends.

Real Estate Market Analysis Housing Sales and Inventory Mortgage Rates and Debt Economic Trends Affecting Real Estate Policy and Regulatory Changes Market Forecasts and Predictions

The hottest Substack posts of CalculatedRisk Newsletter

And their main takeaways

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in July

52 implied HN points • 24 Aug 23
  1. The article provides a final look at local housing markets in July.
  2. The author tracks closed sales, new listings, and active inventory in over 40 US local housing markets.
  3. There is a focus on identifying regional differences in the housing market trends.

New Home Sales Increase to 670,000 Annual Rate in January

86 implied HN points • 24 Feb 23
  1. New home sales increased to a rate of 670,000 annually in January
  2. Average prices of new homes decreased by 5.3% compared to last year
  3. The Census Bureau reported a decrease in the sales figures of the previous three months
Get a weekly roundup of the best Substack posts, by hacker news affinity:

Join the CalculatedRisk subscriber chat

105 implied HN points • 28 Nov 22
  1. There's a new subscriber chat for CalculatedRisk Newsletter.
  2. It's an exclusive space for subscribers to chat about housing.
  3. You can access the chat with a subscription and engage in discussions.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in September

43 implied HN points • 13 Oct 23
  1. Closed home sales in September were impacted by high mortgage rates in July and August, leading to a year-over-year decrease.
  2. Active inventory in early reporting housing markets decreased slightly year-over-year in September, but is expected to increase in the coming months.
  3. The post provides insights on active listings, new additions to tables, and notes about specific markets like Northwest (Seattle) and Jacksonville.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in July

52 implied HN points • 14 Aug 23
  1. The post discusses a second look at local housing markets in July.
  2. Data suggests that July sales rates were similar to June sales rates.
  3. The post examines closed sales in July, which were mostly for contracts signed in May and June.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in May

62 implied HN points • 16 Jun 23
  1. This post looks at local housing markets in May.
  2. Closed sales in May were mostly for contracts signed in March and April.
  3. Data will be updated throughout the month as more information is released.

New Home Sales increase to 664,000 Annual Rate in December

28 implied HN points • 25 Jan 24
  1. New home sales in December reached an annual rate of 664,000, up 8% from the previous month.
  2. The average new home price has decreased by 14% from its peak.
  3. Inventory of completed homes for sale is currently at a normal level, but homes under construction are very high, while those not started are at an all-time high.

New Home Sales Increase to 683,000 Annual Rate in March

71 implied HN points • 25 Apr 23
  1. New home sales reached an annual rate of 683,000 in March.
  2. Future new home sales are predicted to increase year over year by mid-2023.
  3. Sales of new single-family houses saw a slight revision downwards over the previous three months.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.3% Below Peak

100 implied HN points • 30 Nov 22
  1. Inflation Adjusted House Prices are currently 3.3% below the peak
  2. House Price-to-Rent Ratio has decreased to 4.7% below the peak
  3. Real National Index is about 12% above the bubble peak, showing an upward slope to real house prices

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.6% Below Peak

86 implied HN points • 02 Feb 23
  1. Inflation adjusted house prices are currently 3.6% below their peak level.
  2. The price-to-rent index is 6.1% below its recent peak.
  3. The Case-Shiller house price index shows that, in real terms, the National Index is about 12% above the bubble peak in 2006.

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in January

23 implied HN points • 26 Feb 24
💰 Finance Housing Markets Real Estate Home Sales Inventory Mortgage Rates
  1. The final look at local housing markets in January showed low existing home sales but an increase in new listings for the fourth month in a row.
  2. Active listings in January were up 3.0% year over year, highlighting the importance of monitoring inventory trends in the coming months.
  3. Closed sales in January saw a 3.0% increase year over year, revealing differences from sales in January 2019 and hinting at potential sales growth in February.

Current State of the Housing Market: Overview for mid-February

81 implied HN points • 14 Feb 23
  1. Sales, house prices, and rents are declining in the housing market.
  2. New listings in the housing market are currently at a record low for January.
  3. Despite the decline, new listings have seen a smaller year-over-year decrease in January compared to Q4 2022.

Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO

95 implied HN points • 06 Dec 22
  1. Foreclosure moratoriums ending may lead to increase in REOs in late 2022 and 2023.
  2. Anticipated increase in REOs is not expected to significantly impact house prices like in the past.
  3. Unlike post-housing bubble, surge in foreclosures is not expected to occur.

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in June

52 implied HN points • 21 Jul 23
  1. Listings in Texas and Florida are up more than in most other areas
  2. Tracking closed sales, new listings, and active inventory in over 40 local housing markets in the US
  3. Regional differences can provide insights into changes in the housing market

Lawler: Update on Invitation Homes Rental Trends

23 implied HN points • 20 Feb 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Investing Economy Markets Analysis
  1. Invitation Homes focused on boosting occupancy rates in Q4 for peak leasing season, taking an aggressive stance.
  2. Renewal rates for rental properties were pushed lower than expected with renewal rate increases averaging 6.8%.
  3. Despite previous claims of pricing rentals at 'market' levels, recent data suggests that renewal rates have not followed this trend for Invitation Homes.

"The deal of the Century ..."

186 implied HN points • 11 Nov 21
  1. The 'deal of the Century' comes along often in real estate.
  2. Don't always believe claims that a deal is the best ever.
  3. Consider the true value of opportunities before calling them 'deals of the century.'

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in July

47 implied HN points • 17 Aug 23
  1. The post focuses on early data regarding existing home sales in July.
  2. Data is collected from about 40 local housing markets in the US, including states and metropolitan areas.
  3. Closed sales in July primarily reflect contracts signed in May and June.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-June

57 implied HN points • 13 Jun 23
  1. The housing market in mid-June is being reviewed in a 2-part overview.
  2. New home listings in May were at a pandemic low, down about 23% year-over-year.
  3. To access the full post archives, you can start a 7-day free trial with the CalculatedRisk Newsletter.

More Good News for Homebuilders

71 implied HN points • 23 Mar 23
  1. Cancellation rates for homebuilders are normalizing, which can improve sales estimates.
  2. A lack of existing home inventory is benefiting homebuilders, making new homes more attractive.
  3. There are notable improvements in the time it takes to build a home, approaching pre-pandemic levels.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in May

57 implied HN points • 12 Jun 23
  1. This post discusses a second look at local housing markets in May.
  2. There are about 40 local housing markets in the US being tracked.
  3. Closed sales in May mainly originated from contracts signed in March and April.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-May

62 implied HN points • 12 May 23
  1. The House Prices YoY growth rate is still positive, but there was a slowdown in February.
  2. The Case-Shiller National Index reported a 2.0% YoY growth in February.
  3. You can access the full post archives with a 7-day free trial of the CalculatedRisk Newsletter.

Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April

66 implied HN points • 13 Apr 23
  1. New listings for homes in March were the lowest on record, down 20% compared to the previous year.
  2. The year-over-year decline in new listings was even greater in March than in February.
  3. Consider subscribing to CalculatedRisk Newsletter for more insights on the current state of the housing market.

Early Look at Local Housing Markets in April

62 implied HN points • 05 May 23
  1. Sales in April were down more compared to March in early reporting local housing markets.
  2. The data includes closed sales from contracts signed in February and March.
  3. The post tracks about 40 local housing markets in the US including states and metropolitan areas.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in January

76 implied HN points • 08 Feb 23
  1. The post provides insight on local housing markets in January.
  2. Reports suggest NAR sales may increase to the mid-4 million range.
  3. Closed sales in January were primarily for contracts signed in November and December.

Update: Comparing the Current Housing Cycle to the 1980 Period

66 implied HN points • 05 Apr 23
  1. Lending practices during the current housing boom are more solid than in the mid-00s bubble period.
  2. Favorable demographics today resemble those of the late '70s and early '80s, with baby boomers moving into homebuying age.
  3. Inflation increase in the 1980 period can be compared to the current situation.