The hottest Rental market Substack posts right now

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Asking Rents Continue to Decline Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 263 implied HN points • 04 Mar 26
đź’Ľ Business Rental market
  1. Asking rents are down year‑over‑year and have been soft for several years, with the national median rent about 1.5% lower than a year ago and roughly 5.9% below the 2022 peak.
  2. A backlog of units started in 2021 completed mainly in 2023–2025 (especially 2024), boosting supply and raising multifamily vacancy rates to a record high, which has put downward pressure on rents.
  3. Even with fewer new rental units expected in 2026, recent immigration policy changes that reduce legal immigration and increase deportations are likely to cut renter demand and keep downward pressure on rents this year.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.2% Below 2022 Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 191 implied HN points • 25 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Rental market
  1. Nominal house-price indexes are at new all-time highs, but after adjusting for inflation the national index is about 2.2% below its 2022 peak and the Composite 20 is about 2.4% below.
  2. The price-to-rent ratio is roughly 9.5% below its 2022 peak, which suggests prices have softened relative to rents.
  3. Real national house prices remain about 10.3% above the 2006 bubble peak. However, real prices fell about 1.3% in 2025 as rising inventory and persistent inflation put downward pressure, so it may take years for real prices to reach new highs.

January 2026 Erdmann Housing Tracker

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 147 implied HN points • 24 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Rental market
  1. Inflation that excludes rent has tracked very close to a 2% trend for about 3½ years.
  2. Rents should be treated separately from other inflation measures because they can distort signals used for monetary policy.
  3. Home price movements are driven by cyclical factors, credit conditions, and supply constraints, and understanding those components is key to interpreting housing trends.

Asking Rents Decline Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 248 implied HN points • 03 Feb 26
đź’Ľ Business Rental market
  1. Asking rents nationwide have fallen year‑over‑year across several major indexes, continuing a multi‑month streak and pulling rents down from their 2022 peak.
  2. A surge in multifamily supply plus weaker demand — including slower household formation and changes in immigration — has raised vacancies and kept rent growth under pressure.
  3. The trend is uneven: single‑family rents and a few metros still show modest gains, while many large markets are seeing weaker growth or outright declines.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2026

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 21 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Rental market
  1. Inventory has risen sharply back toward pre‑pandemic levels while existing‑home sales fell to the lowest since 1995, and that combination is putting downward pressure on prices.
  2. National house‑price indexes show only small year‑over‑year gains (around 1–2%), and the trend is slowing with reported data lagging recent market moves.
  3. Lower mortgage rates have increased purchase mortgage applications but haven’t yet boosted sales significantly, and a large wave of distressed sales is unlikely because most homeowners have strong equity and low rates.
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Asking Rents Decline Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 06 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Rental market
  1. Asking rents are falling nationwide year-over-year and have been declining for many consecutive months according to multiple indexes.
  2. Rising supply and weak demand — driven by slower household formation, a construction surge in multifamily units, and higher vacancies — are keeping downward pressure on rents.
  3. Trends vary by type and place: single-family rents have risen modestly while multifamily and many metros show declines, with immigration policy and seasonal slowdowns also influencing demand.

Rental Market Preview 2024

The Sunday Morning Post • 98 implied HN points • 14 Jan 24
đź’Ľ Business Rental market
  1. Rents have been increasing but are expected to flatten and possibly decline in 2024 due to a surge in new rental units hitting the market.
  2. Vacancy rates are starting to increase, indicating an evolving rental market tied to new inventory.
  3. Investors should be cautious as margins are expected to get tighter with declining rents, a tough borrowing environment, and tighter lending standards.

Households and Houses

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 168 implied HN points • 08 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Rental market
  1. There's a big housing shortage in the U.S., with millions of homes missing compared to the number of households that want them. This means many people can't find decent places to live.
  2. Most new building has focused on single-family homes, but there's a growing need for more apartments. Many cities have rules that make it hard to build these apartments, which worsens the housing situation.
  3. To fix the housing problem, we can either try to stop investment in single-family home rentals or change the laws to build more apartments. Making it easier to build apartments is a better choice for everyone.

Liberty and the City

Some Unpleasant Arithmetic • 21 implied HN points • 13 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Rental market
  1. Buenos Aires saw a 40% drop in rental prices, but this is misleading. While rents did decrease, it overlooks the complex issues surrounding the housing market and affordability.
  2. Rent control that was in place for years caused past rent increases and a drop in rental supply, leading to informal rental markets. Removing this control helped stabilize the market, but issues of affordability remain due to low wages.
  3. Home buying in Argentina is difficult because mortgages are rare and expensive. The lack of a developed credit system and high inflation means many people can't afford to buy a home, leading to a housing shortage.

House hacking a $1.05m fourplex in Boise

The Leonard Letter • 19 implied HN points • 19 Jan 24
đź’Ľ Business Rental market
  1. House hacking a fourplex in Boise with renting possibilities near the university could be a smart move for your portfolio.
  2. Initial financial analysis shows a slight monthly loss, but potential to increase income by furnishing rentals and bundling utilities.
  3. Consider leveraging student housing demand and available options to generate additional income and potentially turn the property profitable.

Lawler: Update on American Homes for Rent (AMH)

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 27 Feb 24
đź’° Finance Rental market
  1. American Homes for Rent (AMH) saw a decline in occupancy rate last quarter, contrasting with Invitation Homes.
  2. The average monthly rents of INVH and AMH seem to lead the CPI's Rent of Primary Residence by about two quarters, and rent growth has remained above the overall inflation rate.
  3. Rental inflation remains elevated for many single-family renters despite certain limitations in the rent trend comparisons and geographic focuses of these companies.