Crypto Trader Digest

Crypto Trader Digest, helmed by Arthur Hayes, delves into the financial world through the lens of cryptocurrency, with a strong focus on Bitcoin. The topics range from global economic policies, market predictions, the impact of technological advances, and investment strategies, to the interplay between traditional finance and the burgeoning world of crypto.

Global Economic Policies Market Predictions Cryptocurrency Investment Technological Advances in Finance Traditional Finance vs. Crypto Federal Reserve and Monetary Policies Global Market Dynamics Safe-Haven Assets Decentralized Finance (DeFi) Central Bank Policies

The hottest Substack posts of Crypto Trader Digest

And their main takeaways

加油比特币 Let's Go Bitcoin

2281 implied HN points • 28 Oct 24
🔮 Crypto Bitcoin Finance Economics Investment Market Trends
  1. Governments often inflate property bubbles to maintain public support, as owning property ties people's wealth to the state. If people feel secure about their homes, they're less likely to revolt.
  2. China is facing a property bubble crisis similar to those seen in other countries, and it might inject a lot of money into the economy to recover. This could lead to more yuan being traded for Bitcoin as people seek to protect their wealth.
  3. Even though the current stimulus might seem small, once people realize that money is being pumped into the economy, there could be a rush to buy Bitcoin. Historically, Bitcoin tends to rise sharply when significant money is printed.

Persistent Weak Layer

2023 implied HN points • 15 Oct 24
🔮 Crypto Bitcoin Investing Global Markets Geopolitics
  1. A Persistent Weak Layer (PWL) in avalanche science is a weak layer of snow that can lead to dangerous avalanches. Understanding these layers is important for safety in avalanche-prone areas.
  2. Geopolitical conflicts, especially in the Middle East, can create financial market risks. Issues like energy price spikes and military actions can substantially impact investments, particularly in crypto markets.
  3. Bitcoin could potentially rise in value if energy prices go up due to geopolitical conflicts. It is seen as a store of value, especially during times of inflation or war, making careful management of investment positions crucial.

PvP

2658 implied HN points • 08 Oct 24
🔮 Crypto Market Trends Investment strategy Venture Capital
  1. The current crypto market has a predatory feel where some are winning at the expense of others, especially with new tokens performing poorly for retail investors.
  2. Listing fees for centralized exchanges (CEXs) are quite high, and many projects may struggle to justify these costs if their token performance doesn’t improve.
  3. It's better for projects to focus on building a strong user base and product fit rather than solely relying on listings on major exchanges to boost token prices.

Signposts

3432 implied HN points • 04 Jan 24
  1. Watch for the decline in the Reverse Repo Program (RRP) balance to hit $200 billion in early March for potential market impact.
  2. Consider the renewal of the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) and the potential Fed rate cut in March for financial market predictions.
  3. Be prepared for potential market turbulence in March and adjust trading strategies accordingly to manage risk.

ETF Wif Hat

2956 implied HN points • 15 Jan 24
  1. The global financial system is facing challenges due to excessive money printing and global debt
  2. The approval of a Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) could have significant impacts on the market, creating trading opportunities like arbitrage and leverage
  3. Financializing Bitcoin through ETFs may lead to a rise in Bitcoin's price and increase its adoption among traditional finance institutions
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Yellen or Talkin'?

2797 implied HN points • 23 Jan 24
  1. Yellen and Powell alternate between decisive actions and vague talking points in financial matters.
  2. Yellen's shift to T-bills increased liquidity, while Powell's rate cut talks did not stimulate monetary stimulus.
  3. Bitcoin's price movements indicate anticipation of banking crises and government actions.

Expression

3352 implied HN points • 22 Dec 23
  1. Different investment themes have varying expressions that beat others, like Bitcoin being the best in the face of fiat debasement.
  2. Beware of crypto value traps such as permissioned DeFi projects and Real World Assets that may not hold up in the long run.
  3. Choosing between trading financial assets to earn more fiat or preserving wealth with Bitcoin outside state control is critical, especially in an election year of expected money printing.

Panda Power

3154 implied HN points • 28 Nov 23
  1. Centralization is viewed as a tool of the devil in the world of cryptocurrencies.
  2. China's economic decisions and their impact on the global market are closely watched.
  3. The relationship between China and the US has significant implications for financial markets and investment strategies.

Bad Gurl

2995 implied HN points • 09 Nov 23
  1. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen holds significant power in the global financial system.
  2. Yellen's strategies aim to inject liquidity, prevent market selloffs, and support the US economy.
  3. Investing in crypto, especially Bitcoin and Ether, is highlighted as a smart move amidst changing financial dynamics.

The Periphery

3174 implied HN points • 24 Oct 23
  1. The US Treasury market reacted with a sell-off as expectations of increased government spending on wars rose.
  2. Gold and Bitcoin are rallying as safe-haven assets in anticipation of inflation from global conflicts.
  3. Investors are shifting from short-term US Treasuries to cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin as a hedge against market volatility.

Double Happiness

3372 implied HN points • 05 Oct 23
  1. The world is heading towards a fiat liquidity boom due to excessive debt and lack of productivity, leading to potential central bank money printing.
  2. The intersection of artificial intelligence (AI) and crypto is expected to drive a major financial bubble, with a significant influx of capital into AI-related technologies.
  3. Investing in assets like NVIDIA, Amazon, and Filecoin may present opportunities within the upcoming AI and fiat liquidity boom.

Points Guard

1408 implied HN points • 08 Feb 24
  1. The evolution of crypto project ownership structures and fundraising methods from history to the present day.
  2. Comparison between Web 2 and Web 3 startup fundraising and user acquisition strategies.
  3. The emergence of points programs as a new way to engage users and fund projects in the current crypto market cycle.

Patience Is Beautiful

4424 implied HN points • 01 Jun 23
  1. Patience is key in both enjoying a superior cup of coffee and navigating financial markets.
  2. The US financial system faces challenges including declining working-age population and increasing debt.
  3. Understanding the dynamics of interest rates, inflation, and debt issuance can help in making informed investment decisions in assets like Bitcoin.

Fungible

3690 implied HN points • 15 Jun 23
  1. Capital is fungible, meaning it can move across borders easily.
  2. Wealthy individuals in the US and China have significant impact on global markets.
  3. Economic policies in China and Japan influence currency competitiveness and can drive changes in global capital flow.

Moai

2956 implied HN points • 27 Jul 23
  1. Organizing society efficiently is crucial for progress, as seen in the examples of the Rapa Nui people and the differences between countries based on organization.
  2. Limited liability companies play a significant role in converting energy into economic goods, as they combine human effort with contractual enforcement by the state.
  3. Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAOs) on public blockchains, supported by smart contracts, offer a new way for AI and humans to collaborate economically, enabling fundraising and trading on Decentralized Exchanges (DEXs).

Massa

2658 implied HN points • 07 Jul 23
  1. AI and robotics can free up humans to pursue their passions and create art and culture
  2. Bitcoin is predicted to be the currency of choice for AIs due to its scarcity and censorship resistance
  3. The intersection of AI and crypto presents opportunities for investment and growth

The Denominator

1706 implied HN points • 09 May 23
  1. In settings like nightclubs and banking systems, there will always be a debate about who pays and how much.
  2. Banking systems face challenges with fractional reserves and determining who bears the cost during failures.
  3. The US banking system is divided between TBTF banks and smaller ones, with implications for depositors and potential failures.

Exit Liquidity

416 implied HN points • 20 Apr 23
  1. Being exit liquidity means you're buying or holding when smart folks are selling.
  2. De-dollarisation is in progress, shown by deals invoiced in currencies other than USD.
  3. The future may involve various currency blocs, settling imbalances with a neutral currency like gold.

Kaiseki

376 implied HN points • 16 Mar 23
  1. In the world of central banking, the current path may be uncertain, but the destination is known.
  2. The Federal Reserve's actions and programs, like the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP), indicate a cycle of financial disturbance followed by money printing to maintain the current system.
  3. Banks facing financial challenges due to interest rate hikes may rely on programs like BTFP, ultimately leading to potential implications for savers and the overall economy.

Shapella’s Show

99 implied HN points • 11 Apr 23
  1. Maelstrom is investing in early stage projects in the crypto space for excess returns beyond Bitcoin and Ether.
  2. Shapella upgrade allows ETH stakers to withdraw their staked ETH, providing a shift from custodial to non-custodial services.
  3. New projects like Obol Labs and ether.fi are focusing on decentralizing ETH staking services and giving users control over their keys.

Dust on Crust

79 implied HN points • 08 Mar 23
  1. The transition between winter and spring in the ski season can be challenging, similar to the cycle of the crypto markets.
  2. Stablecoins play a vital role in crypto trading by providing a way to quickly move between fiat and crypto without relying on traditional banks.
  3. The concept of NakaUSD offers a unique solution to create a stablecoin without the need for USD or traditional banking services.

Curve Ball

79 implied HN points • 02 Mar 23
  1. World War 3 is ongoing with nuclear superpowers fighting in various domains.
  2. Wars are won based on energy availability since all production depends on energy.
  3. In a global conflict, countries' monetary policies may loosen in response to energy scarcity, potentially benefiting Bitcoin.

Vitiligo

79 implied HN points • 06 Jan 23
  1. The world is splitting into two major blocks: The West and Eurasia, leading to competition in various aspects like trade and resources.
  2. The financial system influences global trade and resources, with potential shifts towards Eurasia due to recent events exposing issues in the Western financial system.
  3. Investors may see better returns by focusing on emerging markets, commodities, and cryptocurrencies, as the balance of power in global trade and finance could be shifting.

Be Present

59 implied HN points • 07 Feb 23
  1. Engage fully in the present moment to avoid potential risks or missed opportunities.
  2. Consider the impact of monetary policies on asset prices and be flexible in investment decisions.
  3. Be prepared to adapt to changing market conditions and have a strategic plan while investing in risky assets like cryptocurrencies.

Bouncy Castle

59 implied HN points • 19 Jan 23
  1. US inflation measured by CPI is decreasing, possibly leading to changes in Fed monetary policy.
  2. Bitcoin and gold may react differently to shifts in Fed policy due to their distinct market dynamics.
  3. Central banks' increase in gold purchases suggests a move away from reliance on USD, impacting gold's price.

PEMDAS

59 implied HN points • 09 Dec 22
  1. PEMDAS is an acronym depicting the order of operations for equations: Parentheses, Exponents, Multiplication, Division, Addition, Subtraction.
  2. Bankruptcies in the crypto ecosystem follow a specific order: first centralized lending firms, then Bitcoin mining operations, and finally small-scale speculators were impacted.
  3. For those looking to invest post-crash, focus on assets that mimic Bitcoin's rise but offer additional revenue yield, such as some DeFi projects with bombed out price to fees ratios.

Coming soon

19 implied HN points • 26 Apr 23
  1. Cryptohayes is launching soon.
  2. Subscribe to get the Crypto Trader Digest.
  3. Share the post and stay updated.

Kite or Board

2 HN points • 23 Aug 23
  1. The author went kitesurfing in Fuerteventura and struggled in the challenging conditions, drawing parallels to the difficulty of managing the current financial system.
  2. The Federal Reserve's attempt to control money quantity and price may not work in today's economic conditions, similar to the challenges faced in kitesurfing.
  3. The author predicts a potential shift towards 'fiscal dominance' where the government focuses on managing debt through inflation, impacting banks and financial systems.

Are We There Yet?

1 HN point • 11 Sep 23
  1. Asking 'are we there yet?' is futile when it comes to financial markets.
  2. Market participants are eager to identify signs of the next bull market in crypto.
  3. The complex interplay of government spending, deficits, and interest rates impacts financial assets like Bitcoin.