The hottest Venture Capital Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Business Topics

Venture Capital Doesn't Exist

Investing 101 ā€¢ 92 implied HN points ā€¢ 14 Mar 26
šŸ’¼ Business Venture Capital
  1. 'Venture capital' is a misleading catch-all ā€” it really splits into seed investing, classic early-stage venture, supercharged growth rounds, and private small-cap tech stocks.
  2. Each category needs a different approach and carries different risks: seed is a people game, classic venture backs risky experiments, supercharged growth buys momentum and access, and private small-cap deals are mainly a game of capital.
  3. Founders and investors should explicitly pick which game they're playing and align their partners, capital strategy, and expectations to that specific category.

Join me for a conversation with Brett Berson, Partner at First Round Capital

Thinking in Bets ā€¢ 138 implied HN points ā€¢ 01 Nov 24
šŸ’¼ Business Venture Capital
  1. Learn how a top venture capital firm has changed its investment processes. They focus on being more organized and efficient.
  2. Discover how to make better investment choices using data. A data-driven approach helps in making smarter decisions.
  3. Find out how to improve feedback loops in finance. Creating quicker feedback can help in long-term decision-making.

Does OpenAIā€™s new financing make sense?

Marcus on AI ā€¢ 10196 implied HN points ā€¢ 27 Feb 26
šŸ’¼ Business Venture Capital
  1. The financing looks more like vendor or supportive financing than armsā€‘length venture capital, which raises doubts about its true value and incentives.
  2. OpenAI struggles to make a profit because the product can be unreliable, operating costs are high, and thereā€™s no clear technical moat, which has triggered price wars.
  3. With competitors closing the gap and valuation rising despite setbacks, the deal appears risky and may reflect an unsustainable overvaluation.

The Anarchistā€™s Compass No. 1

The American Peasant ā€¢ 2535 implied HN points ā€¢ 23 Oct 24
šŸ’¼ Business Venture Capital
  1. A businessman shared a wild story about buying a small publishing company. He revealed that the owner didn't know he was supposed to keep the cash in the company, and the buyer ended up getting the business almost for free.
  2. The room erupted in laughter when he shared how the situation turned out. It showed how sometimes, deals can have unexpected and surprising outcomes.
  3. This story highlights how important it is to understand business transactions and financial details. Misunderstandings can lead to big surprises for both buyers and sellers.
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Two Drinks withĀ .Ā .Ā . Bridgit Mendler, the Disney Star Turned Space Founder

Common Sense with Bari Weiss ā€¢ 171 implied HN points ā€¢ 21 Mar 26
šŸ•¹ Technology Venture Capital
  1. A former Disney actor has reinvented herself as the founder and CEO of a space-satellite company, showing that career pivots can link pop culture with cutting-edge tech.
  2. She credits relentless determination rather than innate genius for her success, saying that if she wants something she will find a way to make it happen.
  3. Her celebrity background and clear mission drew strong public interest and venture backing, helping the company secure major funding for antenna technology aimed at strengthening American capabilities.

Metaverse Failure Proves Billionaires Are Dumb And Lucky

JoeWrote ā€¢ 111 implied HN points ā€¢ 25 Mar 26
šŸ•¹ Technology Venture Capital
  1. The Metaverse was a massive commercial failure that cost Meta and many investors billions and left virtual platforms largely unused.
  2. Extreme wealth often reflects being in the right place at the right time and having access to capital, not necessarily superior intelligence or merit.
  3. Tech hype and follow-the-leader investing funnel huge sums into overpromised ideas, and those bets often misunderstand basic human behavior so they fail to deliver the promised value.

OpenAIā€™s Dead

The Algorithmic Bridge ā€¢ 700 implied HN points ā€¢ 19 Mar 26
šŸ•¹ Technology Venture Capital
  1. Companies donā€™t die all at once ā€” they fail slowly over time and then collapse suddenly.
  2. A series of linked failures ā€” bad deals, market shifts, loss of patronage, a broken center and pivot, legal and financial pain, and industry conflict ā€” combined to finish the company.
  3. The collapse is framed as an inevitable, factual outcome driven by those structural problems rather than a single dramatic event.

Breaking: OpenAI is probably toast

Marcus on AI ā€¢ 11777 implied HN points ā€¢ 13 Feb 26
šŸ’¼ Business Venture Capital
  1. OpenAI's technical lead is slipping as Google, Anthropic, and several Chinese firms largely catch up, eroding its competitive edge.
  2. Major backers are pulling back or signaling uncertainty ā€” Nvidia scaled back a big pledge and SoftBank's top investor is wavering ā€” which raises serious questions about future funding.
  3. OpenAI is burning cash and may have limited runway, so if venture funding dries up it could need a bailout and would likely lose talent to competitors.

Did I Call the Bubble Top?

The Honest Broker ā€¢ 11835 implied HN points ā€¢ 03 Feb 26
šŸ•¹ Technology Venture Capital
  1. Major AI-related tech stocks reached all-time highs and have fallen sharply since, signaling a possible bubble top.
  2. Companies are still pouring enormous sums into AIā€”hundreds of billions and potentially trillionsā€”but this cash flow hasnā€™t restored investor confidence or lifted share prices.
  3. The near-term outlook is uncertain: big investments could sustain growth, yet changed market sentiment means good news may no longer send prices higher.

Sam Altman and the day Nvidiaā€™s meteoric rise came to an end

Marcus on AI ā€¢ 12173 implied HN points ā€¢ 04 Feb 26
šŸ•¹ Technology Venture Capital
  1. OpenAI presented GPT-5 as AGI-capable, but the release showed it wasnā€™t and that claim undermined confidence in promises of imminent AGI.
  2. Belief that scaling alone would create AGI helped drive Nvidia and GPU stocks skyward, but after the GPT-5 disappointment those stocks have stalled, showing the ascent has lost steam.
  3. Investors are rotating out of hyped LLM plays as models prove expensive, unreliable, and commoditized, which means smaller profits and price wars but also creates space for newcomers and new AI approaches.

Issue #150: X Money Gets a Launch Date, Revolut Finally Gets Its UK Banking Licence, And SumUp Eyes a European IPO

Fintech Radar ā€¢ 12 implied HN points ā€¢ 17 Mar 26
šŸ’° Finance Venture Capital
  1. X Money is launching soon with peer-to-peer transfers, a Visa debit card, and an aggressive ~6% yield, using Xā€™s massive user base to cheaply build a deposit business.
  2. Revolut has won a full UK banking licence, unlocking lending and FSCS deposit protection so it can finally monetise its 13 million UK customers beyond interchange and FX.
  3. SumUp is courting banks for a European IPO in London, Amsterdam, or Frankfurt, which suggests profitable payments infrastructure companies might lead a new fintech listing wave even as public markets stay cautious.

Infinite Games

The Generalist ā€¢ 3342 implied HN points ā€¢ 26 Feb 26
šŸ’¼ Business Venture Capital
  1. Joining Hummingbird as a partner while keeping The Generalist fully owned and continuing to publish, with the partnership expected to sharpen the investing craft.
  2. Hummingbirdā€™s contrarian, founder-focused approach ā€” driven by deep curiosity and attention to founder psychology ā€” helps surface subtler, more interesting questions about startups.
  3. The Generalist will publish less often but focus on fewer, long-form, deeply researched pieces about the most consequential organizations, trading frequency for greater depth and quality.

PvP

Crypto Trader Digest ā€¢ 2658 implied HN points ā€¢ 08 Oct 24
šŸ”® Crypto Venture Capital
  1. The current crypto market has a predatory feel where some are winning at the expense of others, especially with new tokens performing poorly for retail investors.
  2. Listing fees for centralized exchanges (CEXs) are quite high, and many projects may struggle to justify these costs if their token performance doesnā€™t improve.
  3. It's better for projects to focus on building a strong user base and product fit rather than solely relying on listings on major exchanges to boost token prices.

State of the Future: Friday Four

State of the Future ā€¢ 4 implied HN points ā€¢ 13 Mar 26
šŸ•¹ Technology Venture Capital
  1. Orchestration and prioritisation are the new scarce skills: people now need judgment to decide which of many AI-driven tasks to do and when to stop.
  2. Frontier AI power is concentrating around infrastructure and a few players, so owning data centers and orchestration matters more than just building models; even huge companies often end up outsourcing or renting capabilities.
  3. The legal and security landscape is breaking: lawsuits over military use of AI and widespread malicious agent plugins show governance and cybersecurity risks are growing fast.

The AI bubble is all over now, baby blue

Marcus on AI ā€¢ 15295 implied HN points ā€¢ 26 Dec 25
šŸ•¹ Technology Venture Capital
  1. The AI industry looks like a financial bubble that may start collapsing in 2026, with growing signs like heavy debt and strained economics.
  2. Large language models have inherent technical limitsā€”especially their lack of world modelsā€”that make them unreliable and hard to monetize, and huge investments haven't fixed this.
  3. Once people accept these limitations as inherent rather than temporary bugs, many promised use cases and valuations will unwind, even though LLMs themselves will continue to exist.

Well, That Happened Fast

Contemplations on the Tree of Woe ā€¢ 2669 implied HN points ā€¢ 06 Feb 26
šŸ•¹ Technology Venture Capital
  1. Major institutions and influential groups are converging on the view that AGI-level systems exist now, treating long-horizon agents as functionally general intelligence.
  2. Recent product releases, model updates, and market reactions show AI is already doing complex, long tasks and disrupting industries; claims of recursive self-improvement imply progress could accelerate rapidly.
  3. This convergence and capability are already reshaping markets, policy, and strategy, so individuals and organizations should plan for major economic and social disruption with both upside and downside outcomes.

five links for March 2026

Five Links (and three graphs) by Auren Hoffman ā€¢ 689 implied HN points ā€¢ 26 Feb 26
šŸ’¼ Business Venture Capital
  1. People who take control and pursue unconventional, persistent approaches can dramatically change outcomes. Examples include self-directed medical choices, career comebacks, and relentless competitive training.
  2. Deep strategic thinking and a focus on endgames create an edge across fields like investing, chess, war, and technology. When openings and middles get standardized, late-stage planning and execution decide winners.
  3. Practical resources and vigilance matter: curated readings and conversations broaden perspective, while founders must watch for hidden term-sheet clauses that can strip control. Staying informed helps avoid traps and leverage new ideas.

OpenAIā€™s ā€œCode Redā€

Marcus on AI ā€¢ 12726 implied HN points ā€¢ 03 Dec 25
šŸ’¼ Business Venture Capital
  1. OpenAI is under urgent competitive pressure as rival models have closed the gap, prompting emergency efforts and noticeable user departures.
  2. The company has overextended financially, burning huge sums with modest revenue and likely only a limited runway, which makes future fundraising riskier.
  3. If OpenAI stumbles, the fallout could ripple through investors, chip suppliers, partners, and pension funds, and could even prompt talk of government intervention.

Seven Big Predictions For Tech in 2026

Big Technology ā€¢ 7130 implied HN points ā€¢ 22 Dec 25
šŸ•¹ Technology Venture Capital
  1. The AI ecosystem scaled dramatically last year, with massive investments and major moves from players like OpenAI and Google.
  2. A major AI lab could pursue an IPO in 2026, which would reshape funding and competition across the industry.
  3. Appleā€™s ability to keep its momentum and the emergence of a breakout consumer AI device are the key trends to watch next year.

Hijacking The Huckster's Hypebook

Investing 101 ā€¢ 73 implied HN points ā€¢ 07 Mar 26
šŸ’¼ Business Venture Capital
  1. A repeatable "hypebook"ā€”secrecy, fake metrics, media stunts, celebrity endorsements, and legal pressureā€”creates FOMO that funnels huge amounts of capital into waste or outright fraud.
  2. You can ethically borrow parts of that playbookā€”compelling stories, calculated urgency, and a visible chief evangelistā€”but only when paired with transparency, verifiable metrics, and real product progress.
  3. To steer capital toward productive ventures, practice radical candor: embrace messy reality, build meritocratic teams, publish clear northā€‘star metrics, and let truth, not lawsuits or smoke, earn trust.

Lessons of a First-Time Fund Manager

The Generalist ā€¢ 1621 implied HN points ā€¢ 05 Feb 26
šŸ’¼ Business Venture Capital
  1. If this is your first fund, resist the urge to rush deals to prove yourself; take the time and deploy at a pace that fits your strategy rather than following hot rounds or other people's urgency.
  2. Build real relationships and show conviction ā€” first checks earn special trust, and being helpful or decisive can win you access even without a formal raise; for a small fund, fighting for every extra dollar matters.
  3. Get better at reading hard-to-explain signals and prefer simple, clear investment theses; progress is nonlinear, top investors can be wrong or uncover things you miss, and most funds will make many bad bets, so stay humble and proactive in sourcing.

A Wave Is Coming

Midwest Humble ā€¢ 65 implied HN points ā€¢ 17 Mar 26
šŸ’¼ Business Venture Capital
  1. Entrepreneurship through acquisition (ETA) is a practical way to preserve local businesses as babyā€‘boomer owners retire, and it can prevent job losses by keeping companies open.
  2. Targeted programs and investment that help women, POC, and Black leaders buy Main Street businesses can shift regional wealth and ownership with just a few acquisitions each year.
  3. Community and nonprofit leadership skills translate well to business ownership, and buying established companies often offers a higher chance of success than launching risky new startups.

Yeah, so... Substack, I'm out.

The Future, Now and Then ā€¢ 615 implied HN points ā€¢ 20 Feb 26
šŸ•¹ Technology Venture Capital
  1. The Polymarket integration turns parts of the platform into a gambling venue and creates incentives for writers to promote outcomes that could profit them, opening the door to conflicts of interest and market manipulation.
  2. Substackā€™s VC-driven business model pushes gimmicks and risky partnerships over improving the core product, which fuels a slide toward worse content moderation and the amplification of toxic or extremist voices.
  3. Many writers will look to migrate to alternatives like Ghost, Beehiiv, or Buttondown, but moving means losing Substack discovery, paying higher hosting fees, and likely asking readers to help fund the newsletter.

How Do VCs Really Make Decisions?šŸ’”

The VC Corner ā€¢ 459 implied HN points ā€¢ 10 Sep 24
šŸ’¼ Business Venture Capital
  1. VCs find deals through strong networks and relationships, not just random pitches. They carefully prune their opportunities, meaning a standout startup has a better chance of getting noticed.
  2. When it comes to choosing which startups to invest in, VCs place a big emphasis on the management team and the market potential. A great team can adapt and succeed, no matter how the market changes.
  3. Valuation is a delicate balance where VCs analyze exit opportunities and compare with similar companies. They aim for high returns, especially on early-stage investments, which comes with a lot of risk.

Dreams of Stability

Working Theorys ā€¢ 605 implied HN points ā€¢ 16 Feb 26
šŸ•¹ Technology Venture Capital
  1. Stability is the new status in tech: people now prefer safety nets like big AI labs or wellā€‘funded VC backing because they offer proximity to money, information, and lower downside.
  2. Paths are polarizing ā€” the winners are either boarding the big 'New Corporate' ships, founding with strong safety nets, or thriving as focused indies and service providers; the midā€‘tier is hollowing out.
  3. Real, lasting security comes from a portfolio approach ā€” investing in craft, relationships, health, and audiences rather than betting everything on quick exits or single signals.

Founder ModešŸ‘Øā€šŸ’¼, The Extinction of VCšŸ’€, How to Build More PipelinešŸš€

The VC Corner ā€¢ 259 implied HN points ā€¢ 15 Sep 24
šŸ’¼ Business Venture Capital
  1. The current landscape for venture capital is changing, and there are risks that could impact its future. It's important for founders to understand these shifts.
  2. Founders can take control of their growth strategies by focusing on building a solid sales pipeline. This can help them succeed even in uncertain times.
  3. Adapting to new growth approaches is necessary for SaaS businesses. Finding fresh methods can lead to sustained success and relevance.

Power in the Age of Intelligence

Not Boring by Packy McCormick ā€¢ 297 implied HN points ā€¢ 18 Feb 26
šŸ’¼ Business Venture Capital
  1. New technologies make key inputs abundant, which magnifies the value of scarce, industry-specific assets so a few winners capture a growing share of economic value.
  2. To win you must identify the industryā€™s bottleneck (the Schwerpunkt), break it, seize the High Ground by owning the scarce defensible asset, and then integrate outward to lock in those gains.
  3. That often means building fullā€‘stack businesses or using hardware and services instead of defaulting to SaaS, and investors must judge bespoke strategy and execution rather than rely on standard SaaS metrics.

What to Watch in 2026

The Generalist ā€¢ 1621 implied HN points ā€¢ 09 Jan 26
šŸ•¹ Technology Venture Capital
  1. AI in 2026 is driven by big hardware and platform moves ā€” massive chip deals, new architectures, novel training research, and giant funding rounds ā€” but high valuations and geopolitical chip controls raise real bubble and supply risks.
  2. Robotics and automation are finally moving into the physical world; robots are learning from humans and autonomous machines are starting to handle tasks like construction and data-center buildouts.
  3. Watch non-obvious opportunities: emerging-market fintech (especially in Africa and Latin America), stealth voice and search startups, and big plays in areas like nuclear energy and geopolitical tech competition ā€” these could be the next big winners.

Living beyond the edge

The Leap ā€¢ 919 implied HN points ā€¢ 15 Aug 24
šŸ’¼ Business Venture Capital
  1. Skill and luck both play important roles in success, and understanding their balance can help us navigate challenges better.
  2. Nate Silver's new book dives into how to make decisions when facing uncertainty, which is relevant in today's world.
  3. Historically significant moments in tech, like the founding of PayPal, highlight the importance of timing and opportunity in achieving greatness.

Median Round SizesšŸ“ˆ, YC's Latest BatchšŸ¤–, The Perfect Pitch DeckšŸŽÆ

The VC Corner ā€¢ 459 implied HN points ā€¢ 01 Sep 24
šŸ’¼ Business Venture Capital
  1. Median round sizes in venture capital are important to track. They show how much money startups are raising on average.
  2. Y Combinator's latest batch is a great resource for new startups. It's helpful to look at what types of companies are being accepted.
  3. A perfect pitch deck can make or break a startup's chance of getting funded. It's key to present ideas clearly and attractively.

An Unforced Error; Try Not to Make Em

Points And Figures ā€¢ 772 implied HN points ā€¢ 29 Jan 26
šŸ’¼ Business Venture Capital
  1. Donā€™t mix politics into your product or use customer data for political causes, because it easily alienates users and can sink a startup.
  2. Keep your ego in check; overconfidence and not listening lead to avoidable mistakes and failure.
  3. Lead by serving others: take responsibility, lift your team, pay attention to details, and learn by following before trying to lead.

Legible To Yourself

Investing 101 ā€¢ 124 implied HN points ā€¢ 22 Feb 26
šŸ’¼ Business Venture Capital
  1. Knowing yourself clearly is a superpower: it makes your choices, work, and relationships line up and attracts the right opportunities.
  2. There should be no divide between work and play ā€” a unified life means youā€™re building toward the truest version of yourself instead of living in separate roles.
  3. If you can state your personal "equation" (your core inputs and priorities), everyone understands what to expect; that shared clarity cuts conflict, helps others support you, and lets your influence scale.

The Ultimate Investors List of Lists (Extended) šŸš€

The VC Corner ā€¢ 199 implied HN points ā€¢ 13 Sep 24
šŸ’¼ Business Venture Capital
  1. Finding the right investors is super important for startup success. Connecting with the right people can really help your business grow.
  2. Using curated lists of investors saves you time. Instead of searching for hours, you can quickly find potential investors interested in your startup.
  3. Having access to a variety of potential investors increases your chances of success. The more options you have, the better your chances to find the right match.

Expanding Ecosystems

Midwest Humble ā€¢ 58 implied HN points ā€¢ 12 Mar 26
šŸ’¼ Business Venture Capital
  1. Michigan has a large, talented pool of women in tech who arenā€™t becoming founders at the same rate as men, and activating that talent could create more local founders and jobs.
  2. Joining high-growth startups accelerates learning and gives broad exposure, plus equity that can translate into long-term ownership and wealth.
  3. The state needs more structured supportsā€”clear talent propositions, relocation/stipend options, and stronger networks and job pathwaysā€”to attract, retain, and grow more women founders locally.

The confidential YouTube Investment Memo by Sequoia you were never meant to see

The VC Corner ā€¢ 519 implied HN points ā€¢ 21 Aug 24
šŸ’¼ Business Venture Capital
  1. Sequoia Capital's investment memo shows how they viewed YouTube as a potential leader in user-generated video. They spotted emerging trends like cheaper video equipment and better internet access that would help YouTube grow.
  2. The memo highlights the importance of a clear, simple investment thesis. The way Roelof Botha presented his ideas was straightforward and confident, making it easier for others to understand his vision.
  3. By analyzing both risks and opportunities, the memo provides a valuable lesson in balanced investing. Recognizing what could go wrong while staying focused on the potential for success is key in venture capital.

What Do You Invest in?

Pratyushā€™s Newsletter ā€¢ 79 implied HN points ā€¢ 16 Oct 24
šŸ’¼ Business Venture Capital
  1. Investors should look for unique founders who stand out with exceptional traits, like intelligence and grit. A well-rounded person often doesn't lead to great investments.
  2. Successful companies often become the top choice in their category and have strong characteristics that help them stay ahead. These can include tricky competition or special technology.
  3. Timing is crucial; it's better to invest in companies before they become popular in the market. If everyone's already paying attention, it might be too late to find a winner.

Last Week in AI #290 - OpenAI's massive VC round and DevDay, Flux 1.1, NotebookLM

Last Week in AI ā€¢ 139 implied HN points ā€¢ 08 Oct 24
šŸ•¹ Technology Venture Capital
  1. OpenAI raised a massive $6.6 billion in funding, making it one of the most valuable tech companies. This will help them expand their research and computing power.
  2. At OpenAI's DevDay, they introduced a new Realtime API for developers, allowing nearly instant AI-generated voice responses for apps. Developers are excited about the new possibilities they can create.
  3. Black Forest Labs released a faster and improved version of their image generation model, Flux 1.1 Pro. This could change the game for how quickly and effectively images are created using AI.

Artificial Intelligence and Finance

Points And Figures ā€¢ 479 implied HN points ā€¢ 04 Feb 26
šŸ’° Finance Venture Capital
  1. Start small with AI projects: cheap, hands-on pilots can improve efficiency and save money while posing little risk to taxpayers.
  2. Real experience matters more than buzzwords; people who haven't worked with AI often buy useless solutions, so leaders should use knowledgeable, practical teams.
  3. AI will reshape finance by automating routine tasks and acting as a decision-support tool, freeing people to focus on higher-value work rather than magically executing better trades.

Founders - stop using AI to write your investor emails.

1517 Fund ā€¢ 787 implied HN points ā€¢ 15 Jan 26
šŸ’¼ Business Venture Capital
  1. Investors can tell when emails are AI-generated, and that usually kills trust and makes them skip your message.
  2. How you write reveals how you think and make decisions, and polished AI copy hides those signals so investors can't judge your competence.
  3. Fundraising is about real relationships and your unique story, so outsourcing emails to AI looks lazy and flattens the personal edge that gets investors interested.