The hottest Global Markets Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

Plumbing Notes: War & Plumbing

Concoda • 383 implied HN points • 11 Mar 26
đź’° Finance Global Markets
  1. The Middle Eastern conflict is splitting dollar funding markets: onshore rates are being pushed down by flight‑to‑safety flows while offshore demand for dollar hedges is widening cross‑currency bases.
  2. U.S. policy is reinforcing a unipolar security order, which pushes adversaries to try to destabilize global trade and the dollar rather than confront U.S. power directly.
  3. Markets are likely to feel a slow, persistent drag from the conflict, with weak risk appetite and little expectation that the Fed or government will aggressively backstop a rally.

Persistent Weak Layer

Crypto Trader Digest • 2023 implied HN points • 15 Oct 24
đź”® Crypto Global Markets
  1. A Persistent Weak Layer (PWL) in avalanche science is a weak layer of snow that can lead to dangerous avalanches. Understanding these layers is important for safety in avalanche-prone areas.
  2. Geopolitical conflicts, especially in the Middle East, can create financial market risks. Issues like energy price spikes and military actions can substantially impact investments, particularly in crypto markets.
  3. Bitcoin could potentially rise in value if energy prices go up due to geopolitical conflicts. It is seen as a store of value, especially during times of inflation or war, making careful management of investment positions crucial.

The Campa Cola Edition

Why is this interesting? • 1085 implied HN points • 19 Feb 26
đź’Ľ Business Global Markets
  1. Nostalgia gives revived local brands a built-in advantage because consumers already understand and trust them. That makes it much easier to win buyers than starting a new brand from scratch.
  2. When a local brand is backed by a powerful retailer, it can use low prices, preferential shelf space, and deep distribution to dominate daily purchase channels. That systems-level muscle multiplies the effect of nostalgia in ways global firms struggle to match.
  3. As geopolitical fragmentation and rising local confidence reshape markets, belonging and local identity can trump global scale. This doesn't doom giants like Coca-Cola, but it ends the automatic assumption that the biggest players will always win.

Is China Cooking Waymo?

ChinaTalk • 1200 implied HN points • 11 Feb 26
đź•ą Technology Global Markets
  1. Chinese AV companies have outpaced U.S. peers in real-world deployment and international deals, offering not just robotaxis but also delivery vans, trucks, and integrated vehicle-cloud-road systems.
  2. China controls much of the LiDAR and EV battery supply chain, giving its firms cost and supply advantages. The U.S. still holds leverage through automotive-grade chipmakers and advanced semiconductor manufacturing, so both sides remain interdependent.
  3. China’s centralized pilot zones, friendlier regulations, and higher public acceptance let firms scale fast and win overseas infrastructure deals. Still, rapid expansion hasn’t guaranteed profits and raises safety, regulatory, and labor tensions.

Top Links 1020 A bad time for US equities. Keynes on the state. Cities without ground & Pol Roger.

Chartbook • 457 implied HN points • 21 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Global Markets
  1. US equities are having a rough start to 2026, with markets showing clear weakness.
  2. There’s a renewed focus on Keynes’s ideas about the role of the state in the economy.
  3. The selection also points to urban themes like “cities without ground” and a piece on Pol Roger, mixing cultural and urbanist interest with the economic coverage.
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Top Links 976 AI investment surges. China in Saudi Arabia. Coffee under stress & looking back at Avalon Hill.

Chartbook • 386 implied HN points • 08 Jan 26
đź’Ľ Business Global Markets
  1. AI and tech investment are surging, with tech spending approaching about 5% of the US economy. This shift makes tech a major driver of growth and corporate investment.
  2. China is deepening its presence in Saudi Arabia, expanding economic and diplomatic ties between the two countries. That growing relationship has notable implications for global energy and geopolitics.
  3. The coffee sector is under stress, facing pressures that threaten production and markets. There’s also a renewed interest in looking back at Avalon Hill as part of cultural or historical reflection.

Amazon Faces a Complex China Calculus as Trade War Continues

Big Technology • 2376 implied HN points • 11 Jul 25
đź’Ľ Business Global Markets
  1. Amazon is increasingly relying on Chinese sellers, with over 60% of its sellers based in China now, compared to just 10% a decade ago. This shift has helped Amazon provide more products at lower prices.
  2. Recent tariffs from the U.S. government have made it more expensive for Amazon to sell Chinese goods. These costs will likely be passed on to customers, making products more expensive.
  3. Despite these challenges, Amazon can navigate through its strong seller relationships and logistics capabilities. The situation may even lead to some positive changes in how Amazon does business.

Top Links 939 Global Agg. China's energy storage boom. The collapse in FDI to China. The legacy of Ungern-Sternberg.

Chartbook • 414 implied HN points • 02 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Global Markets
  1. China is experiencing a big boom in energy storage, which could impact energy management globally.
  2. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into China has significantly collapsed, signaling potential economic concerns.
  3. The legacy of Ungern-Sternberg is being reflected in current global challenges and discussions.

One ETF Up 13% This Year And Another I Like

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 20 implied HN points • 23 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Global Markets
  1. I’m watching two non‑U.S. investments: one is up about 13% this year versus roughly 1% for the S&P, and the other was added to reduce concentration risk and sharpen the thesis.
  2. The core idea is that U.S. stocks trade at very high valuations (around 40x earnings) while the rest of the world is much cheaper, so relative valuation could start to matter again.
  3. If we see dollar weakness, Fed easing, and modest capital rotation away from U.S. concentration, these non‑U.S. ETFs should benefit, and it’s likely still early to own them.

Is there an "Africa penalty" in sovereign ratings by credit agencies?

An Africanist Perspective • 831 implied HN points • 08 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Global Markets
  1. African economies like Kenya, Benin, and Cote d'Ivoire are showing positive signs with oversubscribed Eurobonds, indicating a possible end to fiscal squeezes and future growth.
  2. There is criticism against credit rating agencies for their negative biases towards African sovereigns, highlighting issues like limited in-country knowledge, pro-cyclical downgrades, and high baseline borrowing costs.
  3. African countries face information challenges due to their informal economies and limited policy autonomy, hampering accurate signals to credit markets. Improving transparency, building credibility, and enhancing understanding between governments and rating agencies are crucial for economic growth.

Beijing's Bubble Bursts Part 1

Diane Francis • 779 implied HN points • 01 Feb 24
đź’° Finance Global Markets
  1. Taiwan's recent election saw a victory for William Lai, which was not welcomed by Beijing and highlighted tensions between the two regions.
  2. China's stock exchanges have dropped significantly, with mainland markets falling by 6-7% and Hong Kong by 12%, signaling economic struggles.
  3. The financial issues with Evergrande Group, a major property developer, have led to a court-ordered liquidation, exposing the dangers of China's real estate bubble.

So...Is The Gold Boom Over?

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 32 implied HN points • 10 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Global Markets
  1. Foreign central banks sharply increased gold purchases starting in 2022 to diversify reserves away from the U.S. dollar, and that central-bank demand was a major reason gold rose so much.
  2. In 2025 individual investors piled into gold and helped send prices parabolic, but a hawkish Fed nominee and rate worries triggered a fast, large sell-off.
  3. The core story — countries wanting less dollar exposure — remains intact. Short-term drops may be temporary and more central-bank diversification could keep upward pressure on gold over the long run.

S&P Addiction

Investment Talk • 707 implied HN points • 06 Feb 24
đź’° Finance Global Markets
  1. Benchmarking can be a humbling but necessary process for investors to evaluate their performance relative to others.
  2. Choosing a benchmark is crucial for measuring investment success, considering time, effort, and opportunity costs involved in managing a portfolio.
  3. Fund managers and advisors use benchmarks for various reasons like performance evaluation, risk assessment, and ensuring accountability to clients.

"The Dollar Is Fine," Says Everyone Watching It Burn

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 50 implied HN points • 15 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Global Markets
  1. The world is moving away from the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasuries as the unquestioned anchor, with countries rebuilding payment systems and settling more trade in local currencies.
  2. China is buying vast amounts of Russian gold — likely far more than official reports show — using bullion as a bridge asset to shrink dollar exposure and guard against sanctions risk.
  3. Meanwhile, U.S. markets are focused on tech and AI-driven valuations that look fragile, even as foreign governments quietly dump Treasuries, a mix that could erode confidence in the dollar and U.S. financial leadership.

Yoink! Got Your Dictator!

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 53 implied HN points • 03 Jan 26
🌍 World Politics Global Markets
  1. The U.S. carried out a military operation that captured Venezuela's president, a major escalation in Latin America that will spark intense domestic political and legal debate over presidential war powers.
  2. The strike puts Venezuelan oil infrastructure and exports at risk and could lift energy prices, while the administration appears likely to try to secure Venezuelan oil, adding market uncertainty.
  3. The action increases tensions with Russia, China, and regional leaders, raising the risk of a geopolitical backlash that could accelerate moves away from the dollar and amplify longer-term financial instability.

Top Links 785 China in the gold market. Information Spillovers Within Couples. The cost of children & the PRC and Bretton Woods.

Chartbook • 429 implied HN points • 02 Jul 25
đź’° Finance Global Markets
  1. China is buying more gold than it publicly admits, which can affect the market significantly.
  2. Goldman Sachs forecasts that the price of gold could reach $4000 by mid-2026 based on this increased demand from China.
  3. Understanding these trends can help investors anticipate future changes in the gold market.

Top Links 784 Exorbitant privilege? Productivity differentials. The global land price boom & the fond farewells to Marxism Today.

Chartbook • 414 implied HN points • 01 Jul 25
đź’° Finance Global Markets
  1. The U.S. has a special advantage called 'exorbitant privilege' which means it can borrow money at lower interest rates. This helps the economy but also raises questions about financial fairness.
  2. If a country wants to boost productivity quickly, it often needs to invest in high technology. Using the latest tech can make a big difference in how much work gets done.
  3. There's a notable rise in land prices globally, and more people are moving away from traditional Marxist ideas. This shift reflects changing views on economic systems and ownership.

Country Risk: A July 2023 Update

Musings on Markets • 739 implied HN points • 26 Jul 23
đź’° Finance Global Markets
  1. Country risk factors include political systems, corruption, legal protections, and violence, which all affect how safe it is to do business in different countries.
  2. Democratic countries often have continuous risks from changing governments, while authoritarian regimes can present sudden and severe risks, making it tricky for businesses to decide where to invest.
  3. Corruption adds hidden costs to businesses operating in affected regions, making it crucial for companies to understand both the visible and hidden risks in their chosen markets.

Top Links 762 Historicizing fx reserves. Russia's economy running hot. The fall of a fascist explorer & the "Ruler of My Heart".

Chartbook • 329 implied HN points • 07 Jun 25
đź’° Finance Global Markets
  1. FX reserves are important to understand as they reflect a country's financial health and global standing. Historicizing these reserves helps us see how they've changed over time.
  2. Russia's economy is experiencing significant growth, which has both local and global implications. It's a situation worth monitoring as it may affect global markets.
  3. The discussion around a 'fascist explorer' suggests an examination of controversial figures and their influence on society. It highlights the importance of understanding complex historical narratives.

đź“Š The largest public companies in Africa and the world

Afridigest • 27 implied HN points • 10 Jan 26
đź’Ľ Business Global Markets
  1. The largest public companies in early 2026 are led by semiconductor and tech giants like NVIDIA, TSMC, and ASML, while banks and big e‑commerce firms top other regions.
  2. Africa’s biggest listed company is Naspers (~$52B), and much of its value comes from overseas investments (notably a Tencent stake) rather than building local infrastructure.
  3. By contrast, Mercado Libre (~$111B) grew by creating Latin America’s e‑commerce and fintech infrastructure, highlighting the open question of whether African markets can yet produce a similar homegrown mega‑cap.

NY Times is wrong on dedollarization: Economist Michael Hudson debunks Paul Krugman's dollar defense

Geopolitical Economy Report • 518 implied HN points • 16 May 23
🌍 World Politics Global Markets
  1. Economist Michael Hudson debunks Paul Krugman's arguments on de-dollarization, highlighting historical economic misconceptions by Krugman.
  2. Krugman dismisses the importance of controlling the world's reserve currency, arguing it's overrated, but fails to address the impact of capital flows on currency values.
  3. Krugman's defense of the US dollar relies on tautological reasoning, stating the dollar is powerful because it's widely used, without acknowledging geopolitical shifts away from the dollar.

Brad Setser Says Smart Things on Exorbitant Privilege Unearned & Earned

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 322 implied HN points • 09 Jun 25
đź’° Finance Global Markets
  1. The dollar's power is not just a natural right; it relies on global faith in American institutions and returns. It's a constant balance that can shift quickly if trust is lost.
  2. Private investors have played a huge role in keeping investment flowing into the U.S., as they seek returns and perceived safety. This pattern has changed from reliance on central banks to a focus on individual investors.
  3. The stability of the dollar could be threatened by political issues within the U.S. If the legal and financial systems weaken, trust may fade and capital could flee quickly.

All Weather Portfolio

Market Sentiment • 432 implied HN points • 16 Apr 23
đź’° Finance Global Markets
  1. Sticking to a long-term investment strategy is key for great returns.
  2. Stock-heavy portfolios can carry more risk than expected, especially during market downturns.
  3. Diversifying investments to balance across economic conditions can lead to stable returns.

A Tale of Three Housing Bubbles

Taipology • 185 implied HN points • 21 Jul 25
đź’° Finance Global Markets
  1. Japan's housing bubble in the 1980s showed how quickly prices can soar, but when it burst, the country faced decades of economic struggles. The banks kept rolling over bad debts, making it hard for healthy businesses to get loans.
  2. In the United States, the housing bubble led to a crisis, but aggressive monetary policies helped stabilize the economy. This also created long-term debt issues, as easy money became a habit, allowing reckless spending.
  3. China is trying to manage its housing bubble differently by avoiding bailouts and redirecting credit to productive industries. While many feel the current pain, this proactive approach aims to prevent a financial crisis like those seen in Japan and the U.S.

Top Links 653 How US asset managers are muscling into Europe. Japan restarts its reactors. Who buys guns? Mexico's energy revolution.

Chartbook • 429 implied HN points • 18 Feb 25
đź’° Finance Global Markets
  1. US asset managers are starting to play a bigger role in Europe, which could change the market dynamics there.
  2. Japan is bringing its nuclear reactors back online, impacting energy policies and production.
  3. There's a growing discussion about who is buying guns, which raises questions about safety and regulations.

Endgame #1

The Dollar Endgame • 359 implied HN points • 26 Aug 23
đź’° Finance Global Markets
  1. Argentina is facing a severe economic crisis with massive currency devaluation and high inflation, but there is hope for stabilization with proposed governmental changes and monetary reforms.
  2. China's property market is experiencing significant challenges, with key real estate firms facing default, worker payment issues, and the country slipping into deflation, raising concerns for a possible global recession.
  3. The BRICS alliance, particularly China and Russia, is strategizing to lessen dollar dominance by expanding membership and discussing possible alternatives, like involving major oil exporters and establishing a new reserve currency, amidst complexities and challenges in implementing such changes.

A Momentous Shift.

News Items • 176 implied HN points • 06 Feb 24
đź’° Finance Global Markets
  1. Investors are pulling billions of dollars from China and shifting focus to India
  2. Wall Street giants like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are endorsing India as a prime investment destination
  3. India is becoming a popular choice for various global investment firms and even conservative investors

Pause for the cause

Energy Flux • 176 implied HN points • 05 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Global Markets
  1. The Biden administration's decision to pause LNG export approvals has many implications for European energy security.
  2. Global gas markets are reacting to Biden's 'pause' on US LNG export approvals.
  3. The post discusses various angles related to the impact of the LNG export pause and its connection to the decarbonisation agenda.

De-dollarization Attack

Diane Francis • 559 implied HN points • 13 Apr 23
đź’° Finance Global Markets
  1. The US Dollar is seen as a stable and reliable currency globally, much more so than other national currencies and cryptocurrencies. This stability comes from a strong economy and the trust in its government.
  2. Russia's attempts to promote the use of the Chinese Yuan and create a new currency are unlikely to weaken the dominance of the US Dollar. In fact, they may end up increasing China's dependency on dollar reserves for stability.
  3. While there is some competition in global currencies, none are poised to replace the dollar until they are backed by strong, dynamic economies that have military power and stable governments.

The Sword of Damocles

The Dollar Endgame • 319 implied HN points • 30 Aug 23
đź’° Finance Global Markets
  1. The global financial system heavily depends on the US dollar, causing a constant demand for dollars worldwide.
  2. Triffin's Dilemma and the Dollar Milkshake Theory highlight the systemic risks and implications of the US dollar's dominance.
  3. The Fed plays a critical role in stabilizing the global financial system by supplying dollars; any missteps could lead to widespread financial instability.

Daily Chartbook #294

Daily Chartbook • 1572 implied HN points • 05 Oct 23
đź’° Finance Global Markets
  1. MBA Mortgage Purchase Index fell to its lowest since 1995 due to rising mortgage rates
  2. UAW strike caused a significant drop in trucking volumes
  3. Global economic growth cooled as the composite PMI slipped to 50.5 in September

Do emerging and frontier markets diversify?

Klement on Investing • 1 implied HN point • 03 Mar 26
đź’° Finance Global Markets
  1. Correlations between developed, emerging, and frontier markets rise as the investor’s time horizon lengthens, so diversification benefits shrink over longer horizons.
  2. Despite higher long-run correlations, optimal minimum-variance portfolios still hold a meaningful share of emerging and frontier markets—typically around 20% or more—even at the longest horizon tested.
  3. Typical investor allocations to emerging markets (around 10–15%) are likely lower than the allocation suggested by these optimal portfolios, implying many investors may be underinvested.

Top Links 619 The payments presidency. The coming rupee shock. Musk’s space juggernaut. Saffron in polycrisis.

Chartbook • 329 implied HN points • 15 Jan 25
đź’° Finance Global Markets
  1. There's a focus on how fintech and payments are shaping politics, especially relating to Trump's presidency. It's interesting to see money technology playing such a big role in politics.
  2. India is facing potential challenges with its currency, the rupee, which could create economic shockwaves. People should keep an eye on how this may affect the global economy.
  3. Musk's ventures in space are being discussed, highlighting the impact of private companies on space exploration. It's exciting to see how the future of space travel is changing because of new technologies.

Top Links 559 Will there be dollar-renminbi dramas in garbage time? Central bank independence in SE Asia & Sartre, Anderson, Jameson.

Chartbook • 371 implied HN points • 13 Nov 24
đź’° Finance Global Markets
  1. There could be important developments regarding the dollar and renminbi exchange rates in the near future. This might affect global economics significantly.
  2. The independence of central banks in Southeast Asia is a key topic worth watching. Their decisions can impact regional economies and policies.
  3. The work and ideas of philosophers like Sartre, Anderson, and Jameson are still relevant today. They offer interesting perspectives that connect to current issues.