The hottest Investment strategy Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Join me for a conversation with Brett Berson, Partner at First Round Capital

Thinking in Bets • 138 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
đź’Ľ Business Investment strategy
  1. Learn how a top venture capital firm has changed its investment processes. They focus on being more organized and efficient.
  2. Discover how to make better investment choices using data. A data-driven approach helps in making smarter decisions.
  3. Find out how to improve feedback loops in finance. Creating quicker feedback can help in long-term decision-making.

Does OpenAI’s new financing make sense?

Marcus on AI • 10196 implied HN points • 27 Feb 26
đź’Ľ Business Investment strategy
  1. The financing looks more like vendor or supportive financing than arms‑length venture capital, which raises doubts about its true value and incentives.
  2. OpenAI struggles to make a profit because the product can be unreliable, operating costs are high, and there’s no clear technical moat, which has triggered price wars.
  3. With competitors closing the gap and valuation rising despite setbacks, the deal appears risky and may reflect an unsustainable overvaluation.

PvP

Crypto Trader Digest • 2658 implied HN points • 08 Oct 24
đź”® Crypto Investment strategy
  1. The current crypto market has a predatory feel where some are winning at the expense of others, especially with new tokens performing poorly for retail investors.
  2. Listing fees for centralized exchanges (CEXs) are quite high, and many projects may struggle to justify these costs if their token performance doesn’t improve.
  3. It's better for projects to focus on building a strong user base and product fit rather than solely relying on listings on major exchanges to boost token prices.

Before You Research Apple ($AAPL), Read This | PULSE Framework

Behavioral Value Investor • 126 implied HN points • 17 Mar 26
đź’° Finance Investment strategy
  1. PULSE is a quick triage framework that uses five signals across all three financial statements to decide if a stock deserves deeper research, classifying names as not interesting, attractive at a high price, or attractive at an interesting price.
  2. Apple shows strong economic profits, strong underlying free cash flow, and almost no net debt, but its smoothed FCF yield (~3.5%) and EV cap rate (~3%) are low, meaning the market is pricing in high future growth.
  3. As a result, Apple is a high-quality company but not interesting at the current price, so it isn’t worth a deeper research effort right now.

The PULSE Framework: Start With the Vitals, Not the Narrative

Behavioral Value Investor • 200 implied HN points • 09 Mar 26
đź’° Finance Investment strategy
  1. Use the PULSE framework as a fast triage tool that pulls five financial "vitals" from all three statements so you can quickly sort stocks into not interesting, attractive-but-expensive, or attractive-at-a-good-price. This lets you focus deeper research only on the most promising ideas.
  2. Look first at Economic Profit over time and Underlying Free Cash Flow (adjusted for stock options and compared to net income) to see if a business truly earns above its cost of capital and converts profits into real cash. Consistent, rising economic profit and a healthy FCF-to-net-income ratio signal higher quality.
  3. Always check leverage and valuation together: use Net Debt/EBITDA to spot risky capital structures, a Smoothed FCF yield (multi-year average brought forward by expected growth) to assess sustainable valuation, and an EV cap rate (last 12 months plus debt) to avoid companies that only look cheap because of heavy debt. Combining these measures helps catch hidden risk and find genuinely attractive prices.
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The confidential YouTube Investment Memo by Sequoia you were never meant to see

The VC Corner • 519 implied HN points • 21 Aug 24
đź’Ľ Business Investment strategy
  1. Sequoia Capital's investment memo shows how they viewed YouTube as a potential leader in user-generated video. They spotted emerging trends like cheaper video equipment and better internet access that would help YouTube grow.
  2. The memo highlights the importance of a clear, simple investment thesis. The way Roelof Botha presented his ideas was straightforward and confident, making it easier for others to understand his vision.
  3. By analyzing both risks and opportunities, the memo provides a valuable lesson in balanced investing. Recognizing what could go wrong while staying focused on the potential for success is key in venture capital.

Finance Is Easier to Move Than Tech

Points And Figures • 906 implied HN points • 23 Nov 25
đź’° Finance Investment strategy
  1. Finance is easier to move than tech because it relies on digital interactions and less on physical locations. This makes cities less important for financial businesses compared to tech, which often depends on specific facilities and human networks.
  2. Cities like New York and San Francisco are losing talent and businesses due to high costs and regulations, while states like Texas and Florida are becoming more attractive. The movement is driven by factors such as taxes, regulations, and personal preferences.
  3. Personal connections and networks in places like Silicon Valley are hard to replicate, making tech harder to relocate. People often have strong ties to their local ecosystems, making them reluctant to move even when conditions are better elsewhere.

The US Is Not Broke

Doomberg • 6730 implied HN points • 13 Feb 25
đź’° Finance Investment strategy
  1. The US has a very high level of public debt, but the situation is not as hopeless as it sounds. There's still a lot of flexibility in managing this debt.
  2. Experts suggest the US might be in a state of 'fiscal dominance,' meaning traditional monetary policies might not work effectively anymore. This makes managing the economy tricky.
  3. The current administration has experience with managing debt and can take steps to improve the financial situation. The President has options to deal with the debt and is not completely stuck.

Founders Fund: The Disciples

The Generalist • 3102 implied HN points • 19 Jun 25
đź’Ľ Business Investment strategy
  1. Peter Thiel is great at spotting talent and built a strong team at Founders Fund, which helped them succeed in the venture capital world.
  2. Two important figures in Thiel's journey were Napoleon Ta, who made significant investments, and Lauren Gross, who helped manage the firm and scale its operations.
  3. Thiel's approach to nurturing talent is unique; he often supports and encourages people from his network to grow and succeed in their careers, sometimes launching their own ventures.

Don't Stop Bullievin'

DeFi Education • 1478 implied HN points • 20 Mar 24
đź”® Crypto Investment strategy
  1. Many people in the crypto market don't have a clear plan and are using too much leverage, which can lead to panic during price drops.
  2. Market behavior is cyclical, and while prices can go up, they can also come down quickly once speculations get too high.
  3. Investing in crypto should prioritize cautious strategies: only invest what you can afford to lose and maintain confidence in your major holdings.

Forward Looking Investing Radicalism

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 26 implied HN points • 02 Mar 26
đź’° Finance Investment strategy
  1. Being contrarian usually means you’ll be isolated from the crowd.
  2. Recency bias runs the industry; recent success is treated as timeless and recent failure is written off as broken.
  3. Many people sell toxic financial products dressed up in faux‑academic jargon, and hobbyists often claim to be forward‑looking while obsessively staring at the past.

Big Risks: Catastrophic Risk in Investing and Business

Musings on Markets • 1139 implied HN points • 17 Feb 24
đź’Ľ Business Investment strategy
  1. Catastrophic risks can come from many sources like natural disasters, hacks, or changes in laws. They can seriously threaten a business's survival and impact its value.
  2. It's crucial for business owners to understand how these risks affect their financial situation. They can either be insurable or uninsurable, and knowing this helps in making better decisions.
  3. People often react emotionally to risks, sometimes ignoring them until it's too late. Understanding these reactions can help in making smarter investments and preparing for the worst.

[2025–2026] Week 18: The Investment Checklist by Michael Shearn

Behavioral Value Investor • 29 implied HN points • 20 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Investment strategy
  1. Favor businesses that are predictable and don’t change much over the long term, because stability makes forecasting and compounding easier.
  2. Prioritize honest, competent management and alignment with owners, since trustworthy leaders and CEOs who are engaged materially improve long-term outcomes.
  3. Use a structured, checklist-based research process and deliberate practice: customize the checklist to your approach, be realistic about the time needed to become proficient, and accelerate learning by discussing work with peers.

The Ackman Complex

Net Interest • 27 implied HN points • 13 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Investment strategy
  1. Pershing Square is now a widely accessible, London-listed fund concentrated in a handful of large, liquid mega-cap stocks, and it buys into these names when short-term selling creates mispricing.
  2. High management and performance fees have materially reduced net returns for investors, so the firm has moved to create alternatives that can offer capital on cheaper terms.
  3. By acquiring an insurance company to generate investable float, Ackman is building a Buffett-style vehicle to scale capital without extra performance fees, but the strategy adds complexity and its success is not guaranteed.

Portfolio Update

Spilled Coffee • 24 implied HN points • 23 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Investment strategy
  1. He bought one of his three stock picks for 2026, specifically a software company.
  2. He shared a full breakdown of the trade, including what he bought and the price paid per share.
  3. The detailed write-up is behind a paywall and available only to paid subscribers.

Valuations Don’t Matter When Money Is Fake

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 61 implied HN points • 19 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Investment strategy
  1. Central bank money printing and nonstop liquidity have decoupled prices from fundamentals, so extreme valuation multiples can persist because liquidity, not earnings, drives markets.
  2. That liquidity is uneven, concentrating in a handful of mega-cap firms that prop up indexes while most stocks and the real economy lag behind.
  3. Given these distortions, protecting wealth matters more than timing the market — diversify into sound money, real assets, and non-dollar exposure instead of relying on historical valuation limits.

The Silver Market Just Nuked The Narrative

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 106 implied HN points • 27 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Investment strategy
  1. Silver's sudden, violent price surge is a clear signal that problems in the monetary system are showing up in markets, and it's more a systemic warning than a one-off trade.
  2. A rare convergence of falling real yields, Fed-cut expectations, central bank gold buying, new institutional demand, thin physical supply, and speculative derivatives created a squeeze that amplified the move.
  3. Precious metals are acting as an honest barometer of eroding confidence in fiat and central planning, implying a regime change driven by decades of loose monetary policy and rising deficits.

Data Update 5 for 2025: Profitability - The End Game for Business?

Musings on Markets • 479 implied HN points • 31 Jan 24
đź’Ľ Business Investment strategy
  1. Businesses should focus on profitability as their main goal, not just growth. It's important to make money to cover expenses and create value for the future.
  2. Measuring profitability can be tricky because different measures tell different stories about a company's health. Companies need to be compared properly to understand their true performance.
  3. Most companies struggle to earn profits that exceed their costs of capital, showing it can be tough to succeed in the business world today. Even in a competitive market, many companies fall short.

The Bear Cave #276

The Bear Cave • 513 implied HN points • 01 Jun 25
đź’° Finance Investment strategy
  1. Activist reports are raising concerns about companies like Tempus AI and The Metals Company due to financial issues and past failures.
  2. There have been multiple executive resignations in various companies, indicating instability and potential problems within those organizations.
  3. A court case involving Grifols highlights the challenges short sellers face when providing critiques about companies, as their economic interests can complicate matters.

[2025–2026] Week 12: The Money Game by 'Adam Smith'

Behavioral Value Investor • 44 implied HN points • 09 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Investment strategy
  1. There are many different investing styles that can succeed, so focus on the approach that fits your natural strengths and find ways to cover or mitigate your weaknesses.
  2. Human psychology and behavioral biases strongly shape market decisions, so studying past market behavior helps you recognize recurring patterns and avoid common mistakes.
  3. Active learning and community engagement—doing assigned readings, answering questions, and discussing ideas respectfully—accelerate understanding and improve practical investing skills.

For the brand, I guess

benn.substack • 690 implied HN points • 07 Feb 25
đź’Ľ Business Investment strategy
  1. Venture capital firms need to be great at selecting good startups, but they also have to attract those startups. If they don't seem appealing, they might miss out on investment opportunities.
  2. Investors can stand out by offering more money, being flexible with terms, providing helpful support, or showcasing their reputation. However, being popular or having a strong brand has become increasingly important.
  3. There’s a shift in venture capital where having a strong presence online and being an internet celebrity matters more than traditional methods. Companies now look for people who can bring attention and create buzz.

Capital Cycles and AI

Mule’s Musings • 629 implied HN points • 13 Jan 25
đź’Ľ Business Investment strategy
  1. Everything goes in cycles, including money. When investors see high returns, they jump in, but eventually, too much investment leads to lower returns.
  2. The current boom in AI feels different because it lacks a strong feedback loop that typically drives rapid investment increases. We're not yet seeing the big jumps in value that signal a bubble.
  3. Power and data centers are crucial for AI's growth, but they have slow response times. This means there might be overbuilding, which could lead to shortages and demand outstripping supply in the future.

[2025–2026] Week 15: John Neff on Investing

Behavioral Value Investor • 14 implied HN points • 30 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Investment strategy
  1. Study John Neff’s approach by mapping his investment style, linking it to his background, and evaluating specific examples and modern stock ideas using the six guided questions.
  2. Great investors leverage a personal knowledge edge and apply a broad set of strategies—stalwarts, cyclicals, turnarounds, and long-term growers—using simple, clear theses rather than overcomplicated models.
  3. Use a disciplined, time-efficient routine like a weekly 10-minute investment autopsy to systematically dissect real decisions and steadily improve your investing process.

Portfolio Update

Spilled Coffee • 20 implied HN points • 20 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Investment strategy
  1. A top investment conviction for 2026 is being doubled down.
  2. The move specifically involves one of the 'Mag 7' stocks, meaning a major tech position is being adjusted.
  3. The full portfolio update is behind a paywall and available only to paid subscribers.

ResiDay 2025

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 14 Nov 25
đź’Ľ Business Investment strategy
  1. Home prices naturally stay stable unless there's a major supply crisis. In supply-constrained markets, like big cities, families end up paying more to avoid moving away.
  2. Cities facing housing shortages have been made worse by things like a lending clampdown and recent pandemic supply issues. This has raised rents everywhere, especially in poorer neighborhoods.
  3. The current housing situation might lead to a never-ending construction boom, which could help lower prices over time. However, this will create both opportunities and challenges for investors.

[2025–2026] Week 10: Warren Buffett: Berkshire Hathaway Years

Behavioral Value Investor • 37 implied HN points • 12 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Investment strategy
  1. He started as a Graham-style deep-value investor but often acted like an activist, pushing management or catalysts to realize hidden value.
  2. Over time he moved toward buying high-quality businesses and whole companies, placing more weight on management, qualitative insights, and long-term compounding than on pure quantitative bargains.
  3. Comparing his partnership years to his Berkshire years highlights practical questions to answer: what to copy or avoid, which investments were best or worst, and how his approach would adapt to different capital sizes and situations.

Follow the (fake) Data

DeFi Weekly • 314 implied HN points • 19 Oct 23
đź”® Crypto Investment strategy
  1. Industry around airdrop farming heavily relies on fake data for valuation
  2. Airdrop farming involves finding the right airdrops and using specialized tools to optimize rewards
  3. The ecosystem surrounding airdrop farming is prone to manipulation and can mislead retail investors

[2025–2026] Week 11: John Train's The New Money Masters

Behavioral Value Investor • 29 implied HN points • 19 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Investment strategy
  1. Investors must evolve their methods over time, moving beyond old bargain-only strategies to favor durable, high-quality businesses while still insisting on a clear margin of safety.
  2. Temperament matters: patience and the willingness to wait for the right opportunities are as important to long-term returns as intelligence, process, or experience.
  3. The seminar assigns reading The New Money Masters and practical work: map investors’ styles, pick your favorite and least favorite with reasons, create an AI prompt based on an investor, and share all answers in a single comment while engaging respectfully with others.

[2025–2026] Week 16: Investing Against the Tide by Anthony Bolton

Behavioral Value Investor • 7 implied HN points • 06 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Investment strategy
  1. John Neff’s large-cap value approach focused on stable, predictable businesses bought at low P/E ratios, yielding a high batting average, modest winners, small losses, and roughly a 3% annual edge over decades.
  2. This week’s assignment centers on Anthony Bolton’s Investing Against the Tide, with specific questions to map his investment style, link it to his background, and evaluate his best and worst picks.
  3. The seminar is designed to be interactive and practical: participants are asked to submit a single comment with answers, engage with others, and use extra resources like the 10‑Minute Investment Autopsy and the next reading to keep improving.

There is no 3x growth investment

Parth's Playground • 38 implied HN points • 12 Nov 25
đź’Ľ Business Investment strategy
  1. There isn't a guarantee of tripling your money in new businesses. Startups are still figuring things out, so making precise predictions can be tricky.
  2. Some investors wrongly believe they’re making safe investments like Canada Goose, but in reality, many growth investments fail completely.
  3. It's more effective to look for investments that could potentially return ten times your money instead of trying to pin down a three times return, especially since venture investments often don't follow the same rules as private equity.

Control, Complexity and Politics: Deconstructing the Adani Affair!

Musings on Markets • 559 implied HN points • 05 Feb 23
đź’Ľ Business Investment strategy
  1. The Adani Group has rapidly grown in value, but much of this rise is supported by heavy debt. This heavy borrowing raises concerns about their financial stability.
  2. Investors are worried about potential financial manipulation and the use of shell companies by the Adani family. These practices could undermine trust and lead to serious consequences.
  3. Family businesses in India, like the Adani Group, can struggle with control issues that may harm overall growth. It's important for these companies to seek outside management talent to thrive.

VCs Beyond The Meme

Investing 101 • 133 implied HN points • 28 Jun 25
đź’Ľ Business Investment strategy
  1. Understanding your 'why' is important for anyone starting in venture capital. It helps guide your actions and decisions in the industry.
  2. Building a strong network through existing relationships and new connections is key. Engage with people genuinely, listen to them, and focus on helping others.
  3. Having many conversations can create valuable connections. Even if not everyone you meet is a founder, the network you build is still beneficial and can lead to new opportunities.

Even More Problems at B. Riley (RILY)

The Bear Cave • 303 implied HN points • 14 Jan 25
đź’° Finance Investment strategy
  1. B. Riley has serious issues linked to fraud allegations, which have harmed its reputation and led to a significant stock drop.
  2. The company's inability to file its financial reports has raised even more red flags about its stability.
  3. These troubles at B. Riley could also negatively impact CBIZ Inc, hinting at wider concerns in the market.

Tariff design and LCOE

Jérôme à Paris • 267 implied HN points • 10 Feb 25
đź’° Finance Investment strategy
  1. Contracts for Difference (CfDs) let wind projects offer lower prices compared to Corporate Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs). This is because CfDs reduce the perceived risk for lenders.
  2. Merchant projects that sell directly on the spot market are risky and harder to finance. Investors need to bet on high and unstable prices to make profits, which might not always work out.
  3. Using CfDs provides more price stability for consumers compared to relying solely on PPAs. This helps ensure lower and more predictable electricity costs over time.

Money Market Update

Concoda • 324 implied HN points • 27 Nov 24
đź’° Finance Investment strategy
  1. The Federal Reserve plans to keep reducing its balance sheet until at least 2025. This is to normalize financial conditions rather than to tighten the economy.
  2. Recent changes in interest rates show that the Fed is trying to clear extra cash from its programs. This could help push down short-term borrowing rates and shake up financial markets.
  3. Despite a strong U.S. dollar, there's still good liquidity available in the markets. This offers potential support for riskier investments as banks might adjust their capital due to rising stock prices.

Top Links 540 Gloom over US equities. Soros on investing first and investigating later. Active clubs & the cellular landscape.

Chartbook • 371 implied HN points • 24 Oct 24
đź’° Finance Investment strategy
  1. There's a lot of concern about the future of US stocks, as some experts like Goldman Sachs are predicting gloominess. Many investors are feeling nervous about what comes next.
  2. Soros believes in investing quickly and doing research afterwards, suggesting a bold approach to investing. This method can be risky but may lead to interesting opportunities.
  3. The discussion includes active clubs and the cellular industry, indicating that there are various sectors to pay attention to. These areas might be key for future growth and innovation.

Data Update 6 for 2023: The Upside and Downside of Debt!

Musings on Markets • 359 implied HN points • 28 Feb 23
đź’° Finance Investment strategy
  1. Debt can be a useful tool for businesses to fund growth, but it also comes with risks. Finding the right balance of debt and equity is important for long-term success.
  2. There are good reasons to borrow, like taking advantage of tax benefits, and bad reasons, such as chasing higher returns that aren't real. It's crucial to understand the real costs.
  3. Companies often stick to past borrowing habits or follow what others in their industry do. This inertia can lead to too much or too little debt, which isn't always the best for their financial health.

Studying Peter Thiel and Founders Fund with Mario Gabriele

Not Boring by Packy McCormick • 76 implied HN points • 09 Jul 25
đź’Ľ Business Investment strategy
  1. Authenticity is key in both writing and investing. Being true to yourself helps set you apart from the competition.
  2. Differentiation is important. You should stand out by focusing on your unique strengths and ideas.
  3. Learning from others is valuable, but avoid copying them directly. Use their insights to inspire your own original thinking.