The hottest Investment strategy Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Join me for a conversation with Brett Berson, Partner at First Round Capital

Thinking in Bets • 138 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
💼 Business Venture Capital Investment strategy Decision-making Startups
  1. Learn how a top venture capital firm has changed its investment processes. They focus on being more organized and efficient.
  2. Discover how to make better investment choices using data. A data-driven approach helps in making smarter decisions.
  3. Find out how to improve feedback loops in finance. Creating quicker feedback can help in long-term decision-making.

PvP

Crypto Trader Digest • 2658 implied HN points • 08 Oct 24
🔮 Crypto Market Trends Investment strategy Venture Capital
  1. The current crypto market has a predatory feel where some are winning at the expense of others, especially with new tokens performing poorly for retail investors.
  2. Listing fees for centralized exchanges (CEXs) are quite high, and many projects may struggle to justify these costs if their token performance doesn’t improve.
  3. It's better for projects to focus on building a strong user base and product fit rather than solely relying on listings on major exchanges to boost token prices.

Erdmann Housing Tracker 2024 in Review (July to December)

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 84 implied HN points • 31 Dec 24
💼 Business Housing Market Investment strategy Economic Policy Real Estate Market Analysis
  1. Rising rents are the main cause behind increasing home price-to-rent ratios. This happens when supply is restricted, leading to higher land rents that inflate home values.
  2. Cities with high costs usually face housing shortages because of strict building regulations. They aren't necessarily more desirable but are limited in housing availability.
  3. The mortgage market has changed, favoring higher credit score borrowers, which has reduced access for many potential homeowners. This has led to inflated home prices and keeps housing out of reach for lower-income families.

The confidential YouTube Investment Memo by Sequoia you were never meant to see

The VC Corner • 519 implied HN points • 21 Aug 24
💼 Business Venture Capital Investment strategy Risk management Entrepreneurship Market Analysis
  1. Sequoia Capital's investment memo shows how they viewed YouTube as a potential leader in user-generated video. They spotted emerging trends like cheaper video equipment and better internet access that would help YouTube grow.
  2. The memo highlights the importance of a clear, simple investment thesis. The way Roelof Botha presented his ideas was straightforward and confident, making it easier for others to understand his vision.
  3. By analyzing both risks and opportunities, the memo provides a valuable lesson in balanced investing. Recognizing what could go wrong while staying focused on the potential for success is key in venture capital.

Money Market Update

Concoda • 324 implied HN points • 27 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economic Policy Central Banking Liquidity management Investment strategy
  1. The Federal Reserve plans to keep reducing its balance sheet until at least 2025. This is to normalize financial conditions rather than to tighten the economy.
  2. Recent changes in interest rates show that the Fed is trying to clear extra cash from its programs. This could help push down short-term borrowing rates and shake up financial markets.
  3. Despite a strong U.S. dollar, there's still good liquidity available in the markets. This offers potential support for riskier investments as banks might adjust their capital due to rising stock prices.
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Zen And The Art Of Market Crash Fear Porn

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 27 implied HN points • 21 Dec 24
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investment strategy Economic Trends Monetary Policy Risk management
  1. It's important to consider that you could be wrong about the market crashing; sometimes things can go up instead of down. Keeping an open mind helps in understanding the unpredictable nature of markets.
  2. Thinking about worst-case scenarios can be useful, even if they seem unlikely. It’s good to prepare yourself mentally for different outcomes.
  3. Rethinking your assumptions is healthy, especially when the market behaves in ways that don't make sense. Questioning yourself can lead to growth and better insights.

2025 Macro Outlook

The Last Bear Standing • 36 implied HN points • 20 Dec 24
💰 Finance Market Trends Monetary Policy Economic data Investment strategy Labor Market
  1. The Fed is in a new phase of monetary policy, raising questions about whether easing measures are just beginning or already finished. This uncertainty affects markets and investor confidence.
  2. The labor market is showing mixed signals, with job growth continuing but other indicators suggesting a slowdown. This could complicate future monetary policy decisions.
  3. Inflation progress has stalled, and how labor data evolves in 2025 will greatly influence inflation and monetary policy going forward.

Top Links 540 Gloom over US equities. Soros on investing first and investigating later. Active clubs & the cellular landscape.

Chartbook • 371 implied HN points • 24 Oct 24
💰 Finance Equities Investing Market Trends Investment strategy Financial Analysis
  1. There's a lot of concern about the future of US stocks, as some experts like Goldman Sachs are predicting gloominess. Many investors are feeling nervous about what comes next.
  2. Soros believes in investing quickly and doing research afterwards, suggesting a bold approach to investing. This method can be risky but may lead to interesting opportunities.
  3. The discussion includes active clubs and the cellular industry, indicating that there are various sectors to pay attention to. These areas might be key for future growth and innovation.

Don't Stop Bullievin'

DeFi Education • 1478 implied HN points • 20 Mar 24
🔮 Crypto Market Analysis Investment strategy DeFi
  1. Many people in the crypto market don't have a clear plan and are using too much leverage, which can lead to panic during price drops.
  2. Market behavior is cyclical, and while prices can go up, they can also come down quickly once speculations get too high.
  3. Investing in crypto should prioritize cautious strategies: only invest what you can afford to lose and maintain confidence in your major holdings.

Big Risks: Catastrophic Risk in Investing and Business

Musings on Markets • 1139 implied HN points • 17 Feb 24
💼 Business Risk management Investment strategy Valuation Methods Market behavior Financial Analysis
  1. Catastrophic risks can come from many sources like natural disasters, hacks, or changes in laws. They can seriously threaten a business's survival and impact its value.
  2. It's crucial for business owners to understand how these risks affect their financial situation. They can either be insurable or uninsurable, and knowing this helps in making better decisions.
  3. People often react emotionally to risks, sometimes ignoring them until it's too late. Understanding these reactions can help in making smarter investments and preparing for the worst.

Failing upwards

davidj.substack • 35 implied HN points • 18 Nov 24
💼 Business Risk management Corporate Governance Investment strategy Human Resources Data Analysis
  1. Taking risks is a natural part of business. Employees at all levels face risks, and their roles should help manage those risks effectively.
  2. Data teams need to engage with business risks and help optimize rewards. Building data infrastructure should only be a means to support this goal.
  3. Not everyone is suited for risk-taking roles in the private sector. Some people may excel at politics but fail to deliver real results, which leads to inefficiencies in recruitment.

Data Update 5 for 2025: Profitability - The End Game for Business?

Musings on Markets • 479 implied HN points • 31 Jan 24
💼 Business Corporate Finance Profitability Investment strategy Market Analysis
  1. Businesses should focus on profitability as their main goal, not just growth. It's important to make money to cover expenses and create value for the future.
  2. Measuring profitability can be tricky because different measures tell different stories about a company's health. Companies need to be compared properly to understand their true performance.
  3. Most companies struggle to earn profits that exceed their costs of capital, showing it can be tough to succeed in the business world today. Even in a competitive market, many companies fall short.

Former econ official says "trillions" to come, but be patient

Pekingnology • 56 implied HN points • 10 Oct 24
💰 Finance Economic Policy Market Analysis Government Regulation Investment strategy Macroeconomics
  1. A big economic plan is coming from China, but people need to be patient and not expect immediate results. Changes will happen over time.
  2. The government's strategy involves much more than just money; it includes a variety of policies to support different areas of the economy. This means they are looking at the bigger picture.
  3. Not every policy will show clear numbers right away. Some are about creating a better business environment and building for the future, which might take longer to see the effects.

The Aftermath

The Last Bear Standing • 22 implied HN points • 08 Nov 24
💰 Finance Market Trends Economic Policy Investment strategy Stock Performance
  1. After the election, the stock market jumped a lot, especially small and tech stocks, showing a positive reaction to the new leadership.
  2. Different companies reacted in various ways; some like energy stocks did well due to traditional support while others, like solar, saw drops.
  3. Concerns about tariffs and manufacturing shifts are growing, with many companies considering moving production out of China to avoid potential issues.

Trading The Shit Show: November 2024 Market Review

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 16 implied HN points • 12 Nov 24
💰 Finance Market Trends Investment strategy Economic outlook Portfolio Management Political Impact
  1. The market is facing changes due to a significant political event, specifically the Trump administration's win. This could lead to a shift in how people invest and view their portfolios.
  2. As the new year approaches, it's important for investors to assess their portfolio positioning. Understanding market trends can help make better financial decisions.
  3. Overall, staying informed about political and economic changes is key for successful trading and investing. Keeping an eye on these factors can influence your financial strategies.

Control, Complexity and Politics: Deconstructing the Adani Affair!

Musings on Markets • 559 implied HN points • 05 Feb 23
💼 Business Corporate Finance Market Analysis Investment strategy Economic Trends Corporate Governance
  1. The Adani Group has rapidly grown in value, but much of this rise is supported by heavy debt. This heavy borrowing raises concerns about their financial stability.
  2. Investors are worried about potential financial manipulation and the use of shell companies by the Adani family. These practices could undermine trust and lead to serious consequences.
  3. Family businesses in India, like the Adani Group, can struggle with control issues that may harm overall growth. It's important for these companies to seek outside management talent to thrive.

Data Update 6 for 2023: The Upside and Downside of Debt!

Musings on Markets • 359 implied HN points • 28 Feb 23
💰 Finance Debt Management Corporate Finance Investment strategy Risk Assessment Economic Trends
  1. Debt can be a useful tool for businesses to fund growth, but it also comes with risks. Finding the right balance of debt and equity is important for long-term success.
  2. There are good reasons to borrow, like taking advantage of tax benefits, and bad reasons, such as chasing higher returns that aren't real. It's crucial to understand the real costs.
  3. Companies often stick to past borrowing habits or follow what others in their industry do. This inertia can lead to too much or too little debt, which isn't always the best for their financial health.

Iceberg Risk

Ironsides Macroeconomics 'It's Never Different This Time' • 117 implied HN points • 18 Feb 23
💰 Finance Economic outlook Market Analysis Monetary Policy Investment strategy
  1. The economic outlook for 2023 differs from the consensus, with expectations of lower inflation and resilient growth.
  2. The treasury curve suggests an improved growth outlook without an increase in inflation expectations.
  3. The earnings recession seen in certain sectors is recovering, indicating a positive trend in earnings revisions.

Under The Hood Of Kima Ventures

Venture Prose • 1058 implied HN points • 03 Jul 20
💼 Business Venture Capital Investment strategy Startup funding Portfolio Management Performance
  1. Kima Ventures, led by Xavier Niel, focuses on investing in French tech founders worldwide.
  2. Their investment strategy involves making $150k investments in 100 new startups annually, with a particular focus on French tech founders.
  3. Kima Ventures aims to stay with companies for the long haul, providing support through their portfolio management platform and maintaining steady returns.

How Amazon Survived The Dot Com Bust

Jon’s Newsletter • 139 implied HN points • 29 Jan 23
💼 Business E-commerce Investment strategy Company growth Market Trends
  1. Amazon's stock price fell a lot during the dot com bust, but the company's internal metrics showed growth. Jeff Bezos believed that as long as their business got better, the stock value would eventually catch up.
  2. Having enough cash was crucial for Amazon to survive the tough times. They raised a significant amount of money right before the downturn, which meant they didn't have to scramble for funds later.
  3. Knowing when to stop investing in losing ideas helped Amazon save money. Bezos made tough choices to cut losses on companies that weren't performing, ensuring Amazon could focus on what was truly important for its future.

China's Tech Crackdown: Its about Control, not Consumers or Competition!

Musings on Markets • 19 implied HN points • 01 Sep 21
💼 Business Tech industry Market Analysis Government Influence Company Valuation Investment strategy
  1. China's tech crackdown focuses on control by the government rather than protecting consumers or fostering competition. This means the government wants to maintain power over tech companies and the data they possess.
  2. Chinese tech companies have seen significant changes in their market value due to increased government regulations. Investors are now reassessing their expectations and pricing based on the new reality of government control.
  3. The success of Chinese tech companies stems from their ability to adapt to the local market needs and not just copying foreign models. However, their dependency on domestic growth makes them vulnerable to government actions.

January 2019 Data Update 3: Playing the Numbers Game!

Musings on Markets • 19 implied HN points • 09 Jan 19
💰 Finance Market Analysis Data Trends Valuation Investment strategy Risk Assessment
  1. In 2019, a lot of companies around the world are included in the data analysis, and their classifications are based on geography and industry. This helps in understanding market trends more clearly.
  2. The U.S. firms are still the largest in terms of market value, but the emerging markets have a significant number of companies, highlighting diverse risks and opportunities.
  3. When analyzing financial data, it's important to remember that the numbers can change and may take time to update, so always verify information and be aware of timing issues.

A Viral Market Meltdown V: Back to Basics!

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 31 Mar 20
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investment strategy Economic Trends Asset Valuation Corporate Finance
  1. The market is experiencing a lot of ups and downs, with some recovery seen recently. However, many global indices are still down significantly compared to earlier this year.
  2. Investors should go back to basic evaluation strategies during this unpredictable time. It's important to assess potential company shakeups and their financial health rather than solely relying on past data.
  3. The survival of companies is at risk, especially those with high debt or poor earnings. The post-crisis market might look very different as new winners and losers emerge.

What happens to stocks when the Fed pauses on rate hikes?

Jon’s Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 19 Jun 23
💰 Finance Stock Market Interest Rates Economic Trends Investment strategy Market Analysis
  1. When the Fed pauses rate hikes for three months or more, it usually boosts stock performance. Historically, stocks saw average gains of over 8% during these pauses.
  2. Shorter pauses in the tightening cycle have mixed results. In some cases, stocks went up mildly, while in others, they saw small declines.
  3. If the Fed maintains the pause until September, it suggests a positive outlook for stocks, especially if interest rates have peaked. However, if rates continue to rise, the market impact is less clear.

Our Secret: Delivering the Same VC "Product" to the Next Generation of Founders

Equal Ventures • 0 implied HN points • 20 Oct 22
💼 Business Venture Capital Investment strategy
  1. The VC industry needs to evolve to serve the next generation of founders in areas like insurance, energy, and logistics.
  2. Founders in new business sectors may struggle to access VCs who lack knowledge about their industries.
  3. To support the new wave of founders, VCs must develop a deeply prepared understanding of specific industries to provide the necessary support.

Investing Update: Is Apple Losing Its Taste?

Spilled Coffee • 0 implied HN points • 02 Mar 24
💰 Finance Market Performance Stock Analysis Investment strategy Market Trends Economic Indicators
  1. The stock market has been reaching new all-time highs with strong performance across various sectors and asset classes.
  2. Despite Apple's underperformance compared to the S&P 500 and other tech stocks, it may present a potential buying opportunity as past dips in Apple have been followed by strong recoveries.
  3. The current market trend is leaning towards risk-on behavior, with evidence in the rise of high-risk assets like Bitcoin and certain ETFs.

Financial Management: Modelling & Analysis

Logos • 0 implied HN points • 18 Aug 20
💰 Finance Financial Analysis Investment strategy Risk management Statistical Methods
  1. Only create financial models when necessary. If the decision is clear, don't waste time building a model just to check a box.
  2. Focus on the key variables that have the biggest impact. It's often just a couple of factors that make the most difference in the results.
  3. Use tools like Monte Carlo simulations and sensitivity analysis to understand risks and potential outcomes better. They can help you see how different situations might play out.

Data Update 7 for 2020: Debt Delusions and Reality

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 21 Mar 20
💰 Finance Corporate Finance Debt Management Investment strategy Risk Assessment Market Analysis
  1. Companies with high debt are more likely to fail during tough times. It's important for them to manage their debt levels carefully to survive crises.
  2. Borrowing can seem appealing due to tax benefits, but it carries risks. The real impact of debt on a company's success depends on its ability to generate stable income.
  3. When assessing a company's debt, looking at different calculations is key. Debt measures based on earnings can reveal whether a company can handle its debt payments, even if its overall debt ratio looks good.

Regime Change and Value: A Follow up Post on Aramco

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 19 Nov 19
💰 Finance Valuation Risk Analysis Business valuation Investment strategy
  1. Valuing a company like Aramco requires looking at both its expected cash flows and political stability. Changes in government can hugely impact its value.
  2. Risk is an important factor in investments and can be split into 'going concern' risk, which means worrying about future cash flows, and 'truncation' risk, which means worrying about whether the company will still exist in the future.
  3. There are pros and cons to investing in businesses within democracies versus autocracies. Democracies can lead to more stable cash flows but also introduce more frequent changes, while autocracies can appear stable but may lead to sudden and drastic changes.

January 2019 Data Update 7: Debt, neither poison nor nectar!

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 05 Feb 19
💰 Finance Debt Management Corporate Finance Investment strategy Financial Analysis
  1. Debt can be good or bad depending on the company's situation. It's important to know when it's helpful and when it can lead to problems.
  2. The recent US tax reforms made borrowing less attractive for companies. Many still increased their debt, possibly out of habit or uncertainty about future tax changes.
  3. Leases are now treated as debt in accounting, which changes how we view a company's financial health. This change can show companies as more leveraged than before.

The GE End Game: Bataan Death March or Turnaround Play?

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 14 Nov 18
💼 Business Corporate strategy Financial Analysis Market Trends Management Practices Investment strategy
  1. General Electric (GE) was once very valuable but has faced a sharp decline in recent years. It’s important to understand how a company changes over time and what can cause such a downfall.
  2. GE has the option to break up into smaller companies, reshape itself into a stable business, or try to regain its former glory. Each path has its own risks and potential rewards.
  3. The history of GE shows that being a large and complex company can create problems. Easy money from financial services can lead to significant troubles when economic conditions shift.

A Viral Market Update IX: A Do-it-Yourself S&P 500 Valuation

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 04 Jun 20
💰 Finance Market Analysis Valuation Methods Investment strategy Risk Assessment
  1. Stock prices can rise even when the economy is doing badly. This happens because companies can still make money, which keeps investors interested.
  2. The market doesn’t always reflect the current situation. Sometimes, it takes time for stock prices to catch up with economic changes.
  3. Investors should have a clear story or a plan about why they think the market will go up or down. It’s important to avoid getting mad when the market doesn’t match their expectations.

Data Update 4 for 2021: The Hurdle Rate Question!

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 10 Feb 21
💰 Finance Investment strategy Risk Assessment Capital allocation Market Analysis Corporate Finance
  1. A hurdle rate is the minimum return a business wants from an investment based on its risk. If it's set too high, the company might miss good opportunities.
  2. There are different ways to calculate a hurdle rate, like looking at the cost of raising funds or considering the risk of the specific project. Using the right method helps better match the risk and reward.
  3. Hurdle rates can change based on business type, geography, and currency. It's important to understand these factors to make smart investment decisions.