Erdmann Housing Tracker

Erdmann Housing Tracker explores the multifaceted reasons behind escalating housing costs, including the impacts of urban regulation, economic models, homeownership trends, and monetary policy. The Substack provides data-driven analyses on inflation, housing supply shortages, regulatory effects, and proposes solutions for improving housing affordability and stability.

Housing Market Trends Urban Planning and Regulation Economic Policy and Inflation Homeownership and Renting Dynamics Monetary Policy Supply and Demand in Housing Global Financial Crisis Demographic Impacts on Housing Construction and Housing Supply Gentrification and Displacement Affordable Housing Strategies

The hottest Substack posts of Erdmann Housing Tracker

And their main takeaways

A new real estate newsletter: Resiclub

0 implied HN points • 25 Oct 23
  1. Lance Lambert, former real estate editor for Fortune Magazine, has started a new newsletter called Resiclub.
  2. Resiclub offers level-headed coverage of real estate topics.
  3. The newsletter discusses recent policy announcements from the White House related to housing affordability.

Revisiting Boise

0 implied HN points • 23 Oct 23
  1. Boise experienced a 15% housing price drop before stabilizing.
  2. Overvaluation in Boise was largely due to builders' capacity constraints.
  3. Prices in Boise are influenced by rent trends; a building boom could lead to price declines.

More Detail on February Erdmann Housing Tracker Trends

0 implied HN points • 20 Mar 23
  1. February showed a decline in the typical US home price since August 2020.
  2. Using systematic trends within each city can provide more insights into the American housing market.
  3. Analyzing price trends for high and low tier homes can help differentiate between supply and cyclical effects.

BTRE Podcast

0 implied HN points • 07 Feb 23
  1. Kevin Erdmann has a new post coming up soon.
  2. He recently had a 30-minute interview with "Behind the Real Estate."
  3. Erdmann Housing Tracker is reader-supported.

A way to think about long-term homebuilder expectations

0 implied HN points • 09 Mar 23
  1. Stop worrying about demographics when thinking about long-term homebuilders; focus on larger forces affecting trends.
  2. In housing, real consumption on housing follows a predictable pattern based on incomes, not demographics or trading activities.
  3. Understanding real estate investments involves considering the relation between home prices and rental values for potential trading advantage.
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March 2023 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update

0 implied HN points • 14 Apr 23
  1. Speculation that YIMBY gains in California influenced housing price trends.
  2. Zillow's methodology change impacted tracking of price estimates.
  3. Possibility of a California YIMBY miracle despite data shifts.

Home Price Trends Point to a Worsening Lack of Supply: Part 2

0 implied HN points • 01 Jun 23
  1. Policy decisions post-Great Recession did not address local supply constraints in housing, focusing instead on reducing demand.
  2. A significant drop in home prices after 2007 was driven by a demand shock unrelated to supply constraints.
  3. Limiting home buyers ended up raising rents significantly, particularly in neighborhoods with low home prices, emphasizing the impact of policy decisions on housing affordability.

A Review of Gjerstad and Smith, Part 2

0 implied HN points • 30 Jun 23
  1. The bubble framework of analyzing the housing market magnified the importance of 'bubble' mechanisms, focusing on home values far exceeding normal fluctuations.
  2. Critics of the Fed's monetary policy often show selective observation, particularly regarding asset prices like home values, and call for austerity when prices seem high.
  3. The analysis tends to overlook the supply side dynamics in the housing market, assuming oversupply due to overstimulated demand, without addressing doubts or taking an objective look at housing production trends.

April 2023 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update

0 implied HN points • 15 May 23
  1. The California YIMBY miracle persists with stable east coast prices and declining west coast prices.
  2. The housing market trends are influenced by a mix of supply and cyclical factors.
  3. Subscribe for a 7-day trial to access full post archives on Erdmann Housing Tracker.

My new piece on home affordability at AZ Central

0 implied HN points • 21 May 23
  1. The rent in Phoenix has been increasing faster than average over the past 8 years.
  2. There is a correlation between the rise in rents and income levels; particularly sensitive to incomes.
  3. Data shows a clear disparity in rent and income levels across ZIP codes in the Phoenix metro area.

More detail on "The end of location..." for subscribers

0 implied HN points • 13 Jun 23
  1. Real estate investment focus has shifted from location to incomes and rents due to constrained supply.
  2. Macro-level factors impacting housing have evolved from interest rates to rents and incomes.
  3. Understanding the shift to income-driven pricing in real estate can bring economic healing and investment opportunities.

More on Mortgage Affordability

0 implied HN points • 21 Sep 23
  1. Mortgage affordability is affected by rent prices, supply shortage, and front-loaded cash outlays of conventional mortgages.
  2. Interest rates play a complex role in housing affordability, tied to inflation expectations and housing supply conditions.
  3. Rising incomes should coincide with increased housing supply to prevent higher rents and ensure affordability.

May 2023 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update

0 implied HN points • 16 Jun 23
  1. California shows signs of supply-related price moderation
  2. California leads in supply-related price inflation decline
  3. Austin also experiencing supply-related price moderation

August 2023 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update

0 implied HN points • 15 Sep 23
  1. The California housing supply improvement is uncertain after Zillow's price estimate revision.
  2. Expect a steady recovery in the housing market after the fluctuations of the Covid era.
  3. Unique insights on housing market trends can be found in the deep dive analysis of price and rent data.

February 2023 Residential Construction Update

0 implied HN points • 16 Mar 23
  1. The post provides an update on residential construction in February 2023.
  2. The author mentions a unique and useful information that could be beneficial for decision-making.
  3. The post may have content that is worth checking out for those interested in residential construction and home sales updates.

Tuoro Land Use Institute Podcast Interview

0 implied HN points • 28 Feb 25
🎙 Podcasts Interviews Education Community Housing Land use
  1. The Touro Land Use Institute hosts a podcast that covers important land use topics. It's a good resource for anyone interested in how land is planned and used.
  2. Kevin Erdmann participated in a podcast interview discussing current housing and land use issues. His insights might help listeners understand the challenges in the housing market.
  3. The podcast features discussions with experts like Michael Lewyn and Jennifer Casey, providing valuable perspectives on land use in areas like Long Island. Listening can broaden your understanding of local land issues.

ThinkTech Hawaii Podcast with Keli'i Akina

0 implied HN points • 28 Feb 23
  1. The importance of supply in the housing market
  2. The ineffectiveness of pushing against Airbnb to fix housing market issues
  3. Discussion on the general state of the housing market

January 2025 Regional New Home Sales and Inventory

0 implied HN points • 03 Mar 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Sales Data Inventory Analysis
  1. The housing market in regions like Florida and Texas is seeing a rise in existing home inventory. This trend suggests that there may be more options for buyers, which can affect home prices.
  2. Recent analysis highlights a focus on soft markets, which could mean that sales in these areas are slowing down. Homebuyers should be aware of these changing conditions when looking to buy.
  3. Checking regional data can provide valuable insights into local housing trends. Understanding these trends can help potential buyers make informed decisions.

Supply constraints and residential improvements

0 implied HN points • 06 Mar 23
  1. Existing homes filter down to lower income households, making them more affordable and available.
  2. Improvements on existing homes have increased as a percentage of residential investment after the financial crisis.
  3. High home prices are not solely due to demand factors like foreign capital or low interest rates, but also result from supply constraints.

February 2023 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update

0 implied HN points • 12 Mar 23
  1. Zillow data suggests a turning point in the US home value and rent estimate trends in February.
  2. Industry sentiments and forecasts may change based on the recent data shifts.
  3. New subscribers can get a 7-day free trial to access the full post archives.

More on Hovnanian 3Q 2023 Earnings

0 implied HN points • 01 Sep 23
  1. Hovnanian had good earnings in Q3 2023.
  2. The market responded positively to Hovnanian's earnings report.
  3. Further analysis is available behind a paywall.

February 2023 Residential New Home Sales

0 implied HN points • 24 Mar 23
  1. Real estate trends remain strong in February 2023.
  2. Some downward revisions in previous months.
  3. Builders' bullish reports are being confirmed.

July 2023 New Residential Home Sales & Builder Updates

0 implied HN points • 23 Aug 23
  1. The data shows a trend of moderate sales growth and stabilizing prices in new residential home sales.
  2. Recent sales of unstarted homes have been revised, leading to a shift from a potential overheating trend to moderate growth.
  3. Construction timelines are normalizing, with fewer delays in finishing homes, but units under construction for sale have remained stable.

The 2023 Market Compared to 2006

0 implied HN points • 29 Aug 23
  1. The housing market in 2023 is different from the one in 2006.
  2. There were regional housing supply crises in 2002-2006, affecting certain metro areas.
  3. The extreme valuation changes that led to the 2008 crisis are not as prevalent now.

September 2023 Residential Sales and Homebuilder Earnings

0 implied HN points • 25 Oct 23
  1. Strong home sales in September were above pre-Covid levels.
  2. Homebuilder stock prices didn't rise as expected despite high mortgage rates.
  3. Equity in cheaper builders continues to be discounted.

Upside Down CAPM, Part 3: Supply and Demand for Deferred Consumption

0 implied HN points • 07 Nov 23
  1. Capital markets have stable expected returns but variable realized returns on at-risk capital and changing expected returns on risk-free capital.
  2. Demand for deferred consumption (risk-free debt securities) is highly elastic and influenced by cyclical fears, demographics, and growth expectations.
  3. Supply of low-risk assets like corporate debt and real estate is inelastic, driven by politics, asset values, and collateral, with movements left and right influenced by changing economic conditions.

Home Size and Costs

0 implied HN points • 30 Sep 23
  1. New home buyers are likely downsizing due to high rates affecting affordability.
  2. National average square footage of new homes is influenced by factors like construction scale and economic growth.
  3. High prices in the housing market are attributed to obstructed supply, not just mortgage rates.

Brig Burton

0 implied HN points • 20 Aug 23
  1. The author shares a personal experience of being defrauded by Brig Burton in a business deal.
  2. The author pursued legal action, was granted a judgment, and was able to recover some of the losses.
  3. The legal battle included multiple claims, appeals, garnishments, and settlements, highlighting the complexities of seeking restitution for fraud.

March 2023 Residential Construction Update

0 implied HN points • 20 Apr 23
  1. Residential construction trends are similar to last month, with starts stabilizing, completions following a flat trend from 2017, and units under construction staying high.
  2. For more detailed insights on current trends, refer to the previous month's report on residential construction.
  3. Consider subscribing to Erdmann Housing Tracker for a 7-day free trial to access full post archives.

Quick Review of Flow of Funds Data

0 implied HN points • 09 Jun 23
  1. Fed stimulus and low interest rates are overrated.
  2. Worries about mortgage effects on prices may even have the sign wrong.
  3. The decades-long supply obstruction is the biggest problem compared to other factors.

May 2023 Residential Construction Update

0 implied HN points • 20 Jun 23
  1. Residential construction trends look positive for homebuilders.
  2. More details are available beyond the paywall.
  3. Consider subscribing for a 7-day free trial to access full post archives.

May 2023 Residential Home Sales

0 implied HN points • 27 Jun 23
  1. The good news about residential home sales continues with no surprises for EHT readers.
  2. There is uncertainty about a soft landing, but the thesis for this cycle is being confirmed.
  3. Even if the Fed causes issues, housing construction should remain stable.

December 2024 New Home Sales

0 implied HN points • 28 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic Indicators Sales Data Housing Market
  1. New home sales in December 2024 showed positive growth. This means more people are buying new houses compared to earlier months.
  2. The overall market appears to be improving based on the latest sales data. It's a good sign for the housing industry.
  3. These trends suggest that confidence in the housing market is building. Homebuyers seem to be more optimistic about making purchases.

September 2023 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update

0 implied HN points • 18 Oct 23
  1. Supply conditions are improving slightly, more in the West than the East.
  2. Texas cities have settled at a new price level, possibly due to reduced property taxes.
  3. The model suggests a small cyclical correction in 2022 that has bottomed out and may be rising again.

January 2023 New Home Sales & Construction Update

0 implied HN points • 24 Feb 23
  1. January 2023 shows a decline in home sales but a backlog in construction.
  2. Home prices are stabilizing due to decreased inflationary pressure on residential inputs.
  3. Significant decline in home prices similar to 2007-2012 is not yet seen.

Random notes

0 implied HN points • 20 Oct 23
  1. Comparison of yield curve changes before and after Covid, highlighting the impact on inflation and interest rates.
  2. Analysis of home price appreciation patterns over time, showcasing the impact of economic phases on regional differences.
  3. Examination of multi-unit construction rates versus rental vacancies, illustrating the challenges and implications of housing development policies.

Has the Fed Been Tardy?

0 implied HN points • 10 May 23
  1. Inflation trended high, then normalized, making Fed's reaction questionable.
  2. The Fed may have been late in raising rates in response to inflation.
  3. Real estate demand was driven by non-monetary factors, making Fed's policies less impactful.