The hottest Economic Indicators Substack posts right now

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Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in January; Up 3.9% Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 28 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic Indicators Housing Market
  1. The Freddie Mac House Price Index went up by 3.9% over the last year, showing that home prices are generally on the rise again.
  2. Many cities in Florida are experiencing significant price declines, with four of the six cities having the largest drops in home values.
  3. As housing inventory grows and sales remain low, it's expected that the growth in home prices could slow down in 2025.

New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 26 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic Indicators Housing supply Sales Data
  1. New home sales dropped to an annual rate of 657,000 in January, marking a decline from previous months. This shows a slowdown in the housing market compared to last year.
  2. The average price of new homes has decreased by 5.8% from its highest point due to changes in what types of homes are selling.
  3. There is a high inventory of homes available, with a supply of 9 months, which is more than the usual range of 4 to 6 months. This indicates more choices for buyers but also suggests a slower market.

California Home Sales Down 1.9% YoY in January; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 20 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Investment Market Trends Economic Indicators Real Estate
  1. California home sales fell by 1.9% in January compared to last year. This drop marks the first year-over-year decline in eight months.
  2. The median price for homes in California decreased from December but is still 6.3% higher than a year ago. This shows mixed signs in the housing market.
  3. Inventory of homes for sale increased significantly, up 27.4% year-over-year. More homes are available now, which could change the dynamics of the market.

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 17 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Interest Rates Economic Indicators Home Sales
  1. Existing home sales are predicted to be around 4.09 million for January, showing a slight drop from December but an increase from last year.
  2. The average sale price for homes has risen about 5% compared to a year ago, indicating a continuing trend in increasing home values.
  3. The expected real interest rates have returned to levels similar to before the financial crisis, suggesting a more stable economic outlook.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 57 implied HN points • 14 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Markets Real Estate Market Trends Sales Data Economic Indicators
  1. The National Association of Realtors will report on January home sales, which are expected to decrease. People are anticipating a drop from December's sales figures.
  2. In January 2024, home sales were reported at around 4.00 million, showing a trend in sales that people are keeping an eye on.
  3. Data comparisons from January 2019 will also be included, helping to understand how the market has changed over time.
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NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08 million SAAR in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 21 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Analysis Sales trends Economic Indicators Investment
  1. Existing-home sales have decreased to 4.08 million in January, which is a drop of 4.9% from the previous month, but it's still a 2.0% increase compared to January 2024.
  2. The housing inventory is rising, reaching 1.18 million units, up 16.8% from last year, which shows there is more supply available than before the pandemic.
  3. Despite the drop in sales, this is the fourth consecutive month with year-over-year increases, suggesting some positive trends in the market.

Five Reasons To Be Optimistic About Work in 2025

Workforce Futurist by Andy Spence • 390 implied HN points • 01 Jan 25
💼 Business Workforce Entrepreneurship Remote work Hiring Trends Economic Indicators
  1. Many employers plan to hire more workers, making 2025 a good year for job opportunities. This growth is seen globally, especially in countries like India and the U.S.
  2. The Misery Index, which measures economic discomfort, is low, suggesting overall economic conditions are relatively stable. However, it doesn't account for every hardship faced by workers.
  3. Remote work is becoming more common, giving people the flexibility to work in comfortable environments. Digital tools are also allowing individuals to create their own businesses, leading to more ways to earn money.

Investing Update: Why Are Investors Scared?

Spilled Coffee • 40 implied HN points • 15 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Economic Indicators Stock Analysis Risk Assessment
  1. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq recently bounced back, showing positive growth for 2025, with the S&P just shy of an all-time high. This is encouraging for investors looking for potential gains.
  2. Despite the positive market performance, more than 40% of stocks aren't above their 200-day average, indicating some underlying struggles. This is something to keep an eye on.
  3. A historical trend suggests that when the S&P 500 is up over 3% by Valentine's Day, it tends to finish the year strong. This year follows that pattern, creating optimism for many investors.

3 Stocks I Have My Eye On

Spilled Coffee • 40 implied HN points • 12 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Financial Analysis Market Trends Economic Indicators
  1. The author is watching three different stocks, each in a unique situation. One stock is doing very well and hitting all-time highs.
  2. Another stock is currently at a multi-year low, indicating it might be a good buying opportunity.
  3. The third stock is slowly recovering from a significant drop and showing signs of improvement, suggesting it could be turning around.

Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 05 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Economic Indicators Market Analysis
  1. Asking rents have mostly stayed the same compared to last year. Recently, there's been a slight downward trend, but rents are still high compared to earlier years.
  2. The number of available rental units is increasing, leading to more options for renters. This rise in supply is helping to keep rents stable and pressures on affordability.
  3. Single-family rent growth is at its lowest in over 14 years. Even though rent increases are slowing, demand for rentals is expected to remain strong due to job and wage growth.

Investing Update: Record Highs Here To Stay?

Spilled Coffee • 84 implied HN points • 25 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Stock Analysis Sentiment Analysis Economic Indicators
  1. The stock market has reached new all-time highs after a rough start to January, showing strong growth. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow have all seen gains already in the new year.
  2. There is a clear uptrend in the market as more stocks are moving upward, indicating a bull market. Historically, new highs in the market often ensure continued growth.
  3. Investor sentiment shifted from bearish to more positive as the market bounced back. When many investors lean towards negativity, it often leads to a rebound in optimism.

New Home Sales Increase to 698,000 Annual Rate in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 27 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Sales Data Economic Indicators Housing supply
  1. New home sales in December 2024 hit 698,000, which is a good increase from the previous months. This suggests the housing market is showing some positive movement.
  2. The median price of new homes has dropped by 7.2% from its peak. This could make new homes more affordable for buyers.
  3. There are currently about 8.5 months of new home supply available, which is higher than the normal range. This means there are lots of homes for buyers to choose from.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.1% Below 2022 Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 29 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Inflation Market Trends Economic Indicators Investment
  1. House prices adjusted for inflation are currently 1.1% lower than their peak in 2022. This shows that even when prices rise, the increase may not match inflation.
  2. The price-to-rent index is also lower than its 2022 peak by 7.8%. This means it might be cheaper to rent compared to buying right now.
  3. National house prices are historically high, being 11.6% above the previous housing bubble peak. However, price growth may slow down in the near future.

1.73 million Total Housing Completions in 2024 including Manufactured Homes; Most Since 2006

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 47 implied HN points • 20 Jan 25
💼 Business Real Estate Market Trends Construction Economic Indicators Housing policy
  1. In 2024, there were 1.73 million housing completions, which is the highest since 2006. This means more homes are now finished and ready for people.
  2. Completions increased by 12.5% compared to the previous year. This is a good sign for the housing market as more homes are being built.
  3. Even without counting manufactured homes, there were still around 1.63 million completions in 2024. This shows a strong upward trend in housing development.

News of the Week (Jan 29 - Feb 2)

Stock Market Nerd • 707 implied HN points • 03 Feb 24
💰 Finance Earnings Market Analysis Investing Economic Indicators Stock Market
  1. Apple beat revenue estimates but had mixed performance in different product segments, especially in China.
  2. Mastercard surpassed revenue estimates and saw growth in various sectors like cross-border revenue and value-add services.
  3. Match's financial results were strong, although challenges like negative payer growth from price hikes are temporary.
  4. AMD ranked well in Cloud Workload Security and continues to expand its offerings with the potential for higher revenue and margins.
  5. CrowdStrike received recognition in Forrester's Cloud Workload Security report and shows promising growth potential with increased modules for clients.

Investing Update: Has Sentiment Shifted? 

Spilled Coffee • 32 implied HN points • 18 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Economic Indicators Personal Finance Portfolio Management
  1. The stock market had a positive week, with notable gains in the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow indexes. This followed a strong inflation report that boosted investor confidence.
  2. Inflation is still a concern, with recent CPI readings showing slight increases. The new presidential administration will face challenges related to managing this inflation.
  3. Hedge funds performed well in 2024, with many beating the S&P 500's strong return. Personal portfolio gains were significantly high, leading to discussions about future investment strategies.

My Portfolio Breakdown

Spilled Coffee • 72 implied HN points • 20 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Portfolio Market Trends Economic Indicators
  1. The author's portfolio has increased by 52.10% in 2024, showing strong performance. It's great to see a significant growth in investments like this.
  2. For 2024, this might be the sixth time in eight years that the portfolio has outperformed the S&P 500. It indicates a consistent strategy that works well over time.
  3. The author is sharing the current portfolio details exclusively with paid subscribers. It's a way to provide more in-depth insights for those who are more engaged.

Data Update 3 for 2024: A Rule-breaking Year for Interest Rates

Musings on Markets • 599 implied HN points • 25 Jan 24
💰 Finance Interest Rates Bond Markets Corporate Finance Economic Indicators
  1. Interest rates in 2023 showed little change, challenging the idea that the Fed is solely responsible for their movements. It's more about market dynamics and inflation.
  2. An inverted yield curve has traditionally been seen as a warning sign for recessions, but recent events in 2023 suggest it isn't always accurate. The economy remained stable despite the inversion.
  3. Looking forward, inflation will play a key role in determining interest rates in 2024. If inflation continues to drop, long-term rates might go down too.

The Fed's Repo Defensive: Part I

Concoda • 508 implied HN points • 20 Oct 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Market Analysis Economic Indicators Liquidity management
  1. The Fed's repo facility has been used for the first time by major market players during a tough financial period. This shows it can help keep rates in check, but there are still issues to address.
  2. Over the past few years, the Fed's approach to managing its balance sheet has led to unstable liquidity in money markets. This instability caused significant rate spikes and raised concerns about the overall health of the financial system.
  3. When money market rates soared unexpectedly, it prompted the Fed to step in as a major lender. This was a significant move to bring balance back to the financial markets and highlight the Fed's critical role in managing economic stability.

Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 07 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic Indicators Housing supply
  1. Asking rents are pretty stable, with a slight year-over-year drop of 0.6%. This means many people are paying about the same for their apartments as they did last year.
  2. There's a lot more new apartments being built, leading to a higher vacancy rate. This increase in supply is putting pressure on rents and keeps them from rising significantly.
  3. Single-family home rents grew by 1.7% last year but are showing signs of slowing down. Overall, rent growth is not as high as it used to be, indicating a cooling market.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.3% Below 2022 Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 03 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Inflation Real Estate Market Trends Economic Indicators
  1. Inflation-adjusted house prices are now 1.3% lower than their peak in 2022. This means homes cost less when you account for inflation.
  2. Real house prices, which consider the effects of inflation, are still quite high compared to the past. They are about 11% above the peak during the housing bubble in 2006.
  3. The price-to-rent ratio is also lower than its peak. This suggests that buying homes may be more favorable compared to renting right now.

November 2024 New Home Sales

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 24 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Investment Analysis Economic Indicators
  1. New home sales are low, but this is not always a bad sign. It could mean there's room for growth in the market.
  2. There's a high inventory of homes available, giving buyers more options. This can lead to better deals for those looking to purchase.
  3. Having a lot of homes for sale can create competition and could eventually lead to a more balanced housing market. It's important to watch how this evolves.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 16 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Markets Real Estate Economic Indicators Sales Data Market Analysis
  1. November home sales are expected to show a slight increase compared to October, with forecasts at 3.97 million annually. This is a positive sign for the housing market.
  2. This marks the second year-over-year gain in home sales since July 2021, indicating a potential recovery in the market.
  3. The data will be released by the NAR on December 19th, offering insight into how the housing market is currently performing.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15 million SAAR in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 19 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic Indicators
  1. In November, existing-home sales rose to 4.15 million, marking a 4.8% increase from October. This shows a positive trend in the housing market after a long time.
  2. Median house prices went up by 4.7% compared to last year. This indicates that homes are becoming more expensive, even as sales are improving.
  3. The total housing inventory declined slightly to 1.33 million units, but it's still higher compared to last year. There's a good amount of homes available, but the sales pace keeps inventory lower than before.

Money Market Update

Concoda • 308 implied HN points • 26 Oct 24
💰 Finance Market Analysis Federal Reserve Economic Indicators
  1. The money market faced a tough quarter-end, but there were no serious problems reported. Most banks didn't heavily rely on the Fed's emergency funding options this time.
  2. A new measure called reserve demand elasticity (RDE) suggests that the banks currently have enough reserves. This means the Fed can keep interest rates stable for now.
  3. Funding pressures are growing, but they haven't reached a critical point. This signals that while banks feel some strain, they are managing for the time being.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2025

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 15 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Real Estate Market Trends Economic Indicators Investment
  1. House prices have been steadily increasing, showing a 3.6% rise year-over-year as of October and continued growth is expected.
  2. There has been a consistent upward trend in house prices, with a 0.35% monthly increase noted, marking the 21st month of growth.
  3. The outlook for house prices in 2025 remains uncertain, with various factors influencing future changes in the housing market.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.6% year-over-year in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 31 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic Indicators Housing Market
  1. House prices in the U.S. increased by 3.6% over the past year, according to the Case-Shiller National House Price Index. This suggests that home values are generally rising.
  2. In October, prices went up by 0.35% from the previous month, marking the 21st straight month of increases. Most major cities saw price growth, but some cities like San Francisco have seen declines from their peaks.
  3. Although house prices continue to rise, the rate of growth is slowing down compared to previous years. Factors like high mortgage rates and low inventory are affecting affordability.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24 million SAAR in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 9 implied HN points • 24 Jan 25
💼 Business Real Estate Sales Data Market Trends Housing Prices Economic Indicators
  1. Existing-home sales rose to 4.24 million in December, showing a 2.2% increase from November. This marks a positive trend after several months of decline.
  2. The median house price reached a record high of $407,500, reflecting a 6% increase from the previous year. This indicates that homes are becoming more expensive.
  3. Total housing inventory decreased to 1.15 million units, suggesting a tighter market. While inventory is down from last month, it has gone up 16.2% compared to last year.

In Search of Safe Havens: The Trust Deficit and Risk-free Investments!

Musings on Markets • 599 implied HN points • 15 Aug 23
💰 Finance Investments Market Trends Risk management Economic Indicators Corporate Finance
  1. Risk-free investments aren't always truly safe, especially during financial crises. Events like the 2008 crisis showed that even government bonds can carry risk.
  2. Inflation and real interest rates play a big role in determining risk-free rates, meaning they can change based on economic conditions. A higher expected inflation usually leads to higher risk-free rates.
  3. The trust in governments to honor their debt has declined over time, leading to uncertainty about using government bonds as risk-free investments. This loss of trust makes it essential to reassess what we consider safe investments.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2024

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 10 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic Indicators Inventory Analysis Housing policy
  1. New home listings rose slightly by 2% in November compared to last year, but they are still lower than pre-pandemic levels.
  2. The increase in listings was fueled by lower mortgage rates, but higher rates are now reducing new sellers coming into the market.
  3. December and January are typically slow months for new home listings, so we can expect fewer homes to be listed in the near future.

25 Stocks I'm Watching For 2025: Part 2

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 18 implied HN points • 31 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Market Trends Financial Analysis Economic Indicators
  1. It’s important to look at market trends and themes for the upcoming year. This helps in choosing the right stocks to watch.
  2. Last year's stock picks didn't perform as well as the S&P 500, showing that not all investments roped in big gains.
  3. Identifying potential stocks early can provide insight for making better investment decisions in the future.

California Home Sales Up 9.5% SA YoY in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 20 Nov 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Sales Data Economic Indicators Home Prices
  1. California home sales increased by 9.5% in October compared to the previous year, showing a strong recovery.
  2. October 2023 marked the first year-over-year gain in national existing home sales since August 2021 after a long decline.
  3. Mortgage rates, which dropped in August and September, contributed to the rise in sales, but recent increases might slow future sales.

New Home Sales Decrease Sharply to 610,000 Annual Rate in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 26 Nov 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Sales Data Housing Prices Economic Indicators
  1. New home sales dropped sharply to an annual rate of 610,000 in October, which is a significant decrease from previous months. This decline might be linked to recent hurricanes affecting certain areas.
  2. The median price of new homes has decreased by 5% from its peak, which is partly due to the types of homes being sold. This suggests a shift in the market's composition.
  3. There is a notable increase in the months of supply for new homes, now at 9.5 months, indicating a bigger inventory than usual. More completed homes are available compared to recent years, especially since the pandemic.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 18 Nov 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Sales Data Economic Indicators
  1. In October, existing home sales saw a year-over-year increase, which is the first time this has happened since August 2021. This means more people are buying homes now compared to last year.
  2. The median price of homes rose by about 4.7% compared to the same time last year, showing that homes are becoming more expensive even though sales are still low.
  3. Active inventory of homes for sale went up by 25.9% year-over-year, especially in places like Florida and Texas. This increase could impact home prices in the coming months.