The hottest Economic Indicators Substack posts right now

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Top Finance Topics

The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q4

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 220 implied HN points • 20 Mar 26
đź’° Finance Economic Indicators
  1. Mortgage equity withdrawal was only slightly positive in Q4. Mortgage debt rose about $99 billion, indicating homeowners only modestly tapped home equity.
  2. Mortgage debt as a share of GDP is about 43.8%, well below the housing‑bubble peak, so most homeowners still have large equity cushions (homeowner equity around 71%).
  3. Much of the increase in mortgage debt likely reflects home purchases and routine changes like principal payments or debt write‑offs, so true cash‑out borrowing is limited and the 'home ATM' remains mostly closed.

Architecture Billings Declined Slightly in February

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 229 implied HN points • 18 Mar 26
đź’Ľ Business Economic Indicators
  1. Architecture billings stayed just below growth in February (ABI 49.4) and the index has been in contraction for 38 of the last 41 months, showing persistent weakness even as some measures hint at stabilization.
  2. Multi-family billings have been under 50 for 43 straight months, which signals ongoing weakness in the multifamily market and likely fewer multifamily starts ahead.
  3. Because the ABI typically leads commercial real estate investment by 9–12 months, the prolonged ABI contraction points to a slowdown in CRE investment through 2026, with notable regional and sector differences (the South near flat, the Northeast particularly weak, and commercial/industrial softer).

2026 Feels Like 2022. One Big Difference.

Spilled Coffee • 24 implied HN points • 25 Mar 26
đź’° Finance Economic Indicators
  1. 2026 feels a lot like 2022, with the market peaking early and then grinding lower as rallies get sold and bad news moves stocks more than good news.
  2. The biggest tech names are leading the decline, with large drawdowns already visible (for example, Microsoft ~31% down, Meta ~24% down, Tesla ~24% down), so this is more than a small pullback.
  3. The macro backdrop — a midterm election year plus an energy shock — is adding to uncertainty and creating a similar wall of worry to what was seen in 2022.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in February

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 229 implied HN points • 06 Mar 26
đź’° Finance Economic Indicators
  1. Existing home sales look to be flat or slightly down year‑over‑year, with early-reporting markets showing about a 2.9% drop and sales well below February 2019 levels.
  2. New listings and active inventory are rising — new listings were up roughly 5.5% year‑over‑year and active inventory climbed about 12%, so more supply is coming onto the market.
  3. Local conditions vary: Las Vegas is seeing slower sales, lower prices and rising inventory, while the Pacific Northwest has transactions down around 3% and listings up about 28% even as mortgage rates sit near 6.1%.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.3% year-over-year in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 234 implied HN points • 24 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Economic Indicators
  1. National home prices barely rose in 2025, with the Case‑Shiller National index up just 1.3% year‑over‑year and the weakest full‑year gain since 2011.
  2. There is wide geographic divergence: Midwest and Northeast cities (like Chicago and New York) saw gains while many Sun Belt markets (Tampa, Phoenix, Dallas, Miami) posted declines.
  3. The year split into two halves — modest gains in the first half were followed by nominal declines in the back half, and inflation outpaced price gains from June onward, eroding real home values.
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Architecture "Billings remain soft to start 2026"

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 153 implied HN points • 19 Feb 26
đź’Ľ Business Economic Indicators
  1. Architecture billings are in contraction, with the ABI at 43.8 in January and the index in contraction for 37 of the last 40 months. Because the ABI typically leads nonresidential construction by 9–12 months, this points to a slowdown in commercial real estate investment through 2026.
  2. Multifamily billings have been below the 50 growth threshold for 42 consecutive months, indicating continued weakness in multifamily starts and no billing growth for those firms since mid‑2022.
  3. Pending home sales fell 0.8% month‑over‑month and 0.4% year‑over‑year in January, missing expectations and signaling softer near‑term existing‑home activity; contract signings usually lead closed sales by 45–60 days, so weaker sales are likely in the coming months.

How Concerning Are the February Jobs Numbers?

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 22 implied HN points • 13 Mar 26
đź’Ľ Business Economic Indicators
  1. Slow monthly job gains don’t necessarily mean the labor market is weak — when the economy is at or near full employment and the working‑age population is growing slowly, job growth will naturally be small and more volatile.
  2. The prime‑age employment‑to‑population ratio and other indicators suggest the labor market is near full employment, so current low job creation can be consistent with a tight market rather than a clear downturn.
  3. Some recent job losses (notably in government) can be productivity‑enhancing as workers move to the private sector, while strong growth in health care largely reflects demographic aging and a sectoral rebalancing.

Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 0.7% Year-over-Year in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 167 implied HN points • 30 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Economic Indicators
  1. National house prices barely rose — up 0.7% year-over-year in December and essentially flat month-to-month, marking a cycle low and raising the risk that YoY growth could turn negative in 2026.
  2. Many markets are down from recent peaks — 23 states and D.C. are below their previous highs, and the biggest city declines are concentrated in Florida, Texas, and California with Punta Gorda and Austin among the worst performers.
  3. Market signals point to further cooling — Freddie Mac and NAR measures seem to lead Case-Shiller, and rising inventory plus the lowest sales since 1995 have slowed national price growth and may push it lower.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.91 million SAAR in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 12 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Economic Indicators
  1. Existing-home sales fell to a 3.91 million SAAR in January, down 8.4% from December and 4.4% year-over-year.
  2. Median existing-home price rose 0.9% year-over-year to $396,800, so prices are slightly higher even as sales cool.
  3. Inventory edged down to 1.22 million while months-of-supply rose to 3.7 months, which is about the same supply level as before the pandemic.

News of the Week (Jan 29 - Feb 2)

Stock Market Nerd • 707 implied HN points • 03 Feb 24
đź’° Finance Economic Indicators
  1. Apple beat revenue estimates but had mixed performance in different product segments, especially in China.
  2. Mastercard surpassed revenue estimates and saw growth in various sectors like cross-border revenue and value-add services.
  3. Match's financial results were strong, although challenges like negative payer growth from price hikes are temporary.
  4. AMD ranked well in Cloud Workload Security and continues to expand its offerings with the potential for higher revenue and margins.
  5. CrowdStrike received recognition in Forrester's Cloud Workload Security report and shows promising growth potential with increased modules for clients.

"Economy Is In Recession": Only 181k Jobs Gained For All Of 2025

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 20 implied HN points • 18 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Economic Indicators
  1. Headline payrolls showed only 181,000 net jobs added in 2025 — about 15,000 per month — which is very weak and consistent with recessionary conditions.
  2. Large downward revisions removed roughly 1.2 million jobs from prior estimates, with monthly revisions averaging around 105k, making the recent labor picture much worse than initially reported.
  3. The year’s reported positive job growth depends largely on the BLS birth/death assumption (+1.15M), while actual measured job counts were negative, so most gains reflect model assumptions about new business formation rather than recorded hires.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 06 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Economic Indicators
  1. Early-reporting markets show January existing-home sales down year-over-year (about 7.2% in those markets), and seasonally adjusted national sales are likely lower. Many areas hit by Winter Storm Fern haven’t reported yet, so delayed closings could make the final numbers weaker.
  2. New listings were up modestly (about 2.1% YoY) and active inventory rose roughly 11.4% YoY, so supply is increasing in these markets. However, listings are still down compared with January 2019 in many places.
  3. Mortgage rates averaged about 6.2% in November and December, and January closings mostly reflect contracts signed then, which likely weighed on sales. Overall, most of these local markets remain well below January 2019 sales levels.

Data Update 3 for 2024: A Rule-breaking Year for Interest Rates

Musings on Markets • 599 implied HN points • 25 Jan 24
đź’° Finance Economic Indicators
  1. Interest rates in 2023 showed little change, challenging the idea that the Fed is solely responsible for their movements. It's more about market dynamics and inflation.
  2. An inverted yield curve has traditionally been seen as a warning sign for recessions, but recent events in 2023 suggest it isn't always accurate. The economy remained stable despite the inversion.
  3. Looking forward, inflation will play a key role in determining interest rates in 2024. If inflation continues to drop, long-term rates might go down too.

In Search of Safe Havens: The Trust Deficit and Risk-free Investments!

Musings on Markets • 599 implied HN points • 15 Aug 23
đź’° Finance Economic Indicators
  1. Risk-free investments aren't always truly safe, especially during financial crises. Events like the 2008 crisis showed that even government bonds can carry risk.
  2. Inflation and real interest rates play a big role in determining risk-free rates, meaning they can change based on economic conditions. A higher expected inflation usually leads to higher risk-free rates.
  3. The trust in governments to honor their debt has declined over time, leading to uncertainty about using government bonds as risk-free investments. This loss of trust makes it essential to reassess what we consider safe investments.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in June

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 282 implied HN points • 08 Jul 25
đź’Ľ Business Economic Indicators
  1. In June, home sales increased slightly by 0.9% compared to the same month last year, which is a good sign after previous declines.
  2. There were more new home listings this June, showing an increase of 7.7% year-over-year, but still lower than the activity in 2019.
  3. Inventory levels rose significantly by 39.3% year-over-year, indicating that more homes are available for buyers now compared to last year.

NMHC on Apartments: "Lower rent growth and higher vacancies" in Q4

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 22 Jan 26
đź’Ľ Business Economic Indicators
  1. The Market Tightness Index is 32, well below the breakeven 50, which signals looser market conditions and points to lower rent growth and higher apartment vacancies.
  2. Sales activity has slowed — the Sales Volume Index dropped to 47, indicating a pullback in deal flow even though many respondents saw little change quarter-to-quarter.
  3. Financing is more available: the Debt Financing Index is 75 and the Equity Financing Index is 53, reflecting improved borrowing and capital availability after a modest decline in long-term yields.

"Architecture firm billings remain soft to end the year"

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 22 Jan 26
đź’Ľ Business Economic Indicators
  1. Architecture firm billings have been in prolonged decline, with the ABI below 50 for most of the last three years and at 48.5 in December, indicating contracting demand. Because the ABI typically leads CRE investment by 9–12 months, this points to a likely slowdown in commercial real estate investment through 2026.
  2. Multifamily residential billings are especially weak—below 50 for 41 consecutive months and at 45.5—so new multifamily starts are likely to weaken further. This sector looks more vulnerable than institutional or other commercial work.
  3. Overall construction spending is down about 1.0% year‑over‑year, with private residential down 1.3% and private nonresidential down 2.6%, while public construction is up roughly 2.1%. That split means overall construction demand remains fairly soft despite modest public spending gains.

Daily Chartbook #287

Daily Chartbook • 1519 implied HN points • 26 Sep 23
đź’° Finance Economic Indicators
  1. Global trade has fallen due to slowing global demand as interest rates rise.
  2. US credit spreads suggest Europe may face a recession while the US remains stable.
  3. History shows that once US food prices rise, they tend not to decrease.

I'll Be Bullish On Stocks Again...Someday

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 46 implied HN points • 14 Nov 25
đź’° Finance Economic Indicators
  1. The stock market is currently overvalued, and many investors ignore real issues like high P/E ratios. It's essential to be cautious and think critically about investments.
  2. Gold and silver assets are rising, which suggests bigger economic problems might be happening. There's a chance the U.S. economy is shifting in a way that could affect markets severely.
  3. While there may be opportunities in specific stocks, the overall market needs to become cheaper before it's worth being bullish again. Patience and careful analysis are key.

Daily Chartbook #293

Daily Chartbook • 1467 implied HN points • 04 Oct 23
đź’° Finance Economic Indicators
  1. Logistics Managers Index expanded at fastest rate since February.
  2. Economic Optimism Index dropped in October for 26th consecutive pessimistic reading.
  3. Financial conditions tightened due to various factors like higher Treasury yield and lower equity prices.

The Fed's Repo Defensive: Part I

Concoda • 508 implied HN points • 20 Oct 24
đź’° Finance Economic Indicators
  1. The Fed's repo facility has been used for the first time by major market players during a tough financial period. This shows it can help keep rates in check, but there are still issues to address.
  2. Over the past few years, the Fed's approach to managing its balance sheet has led to unstable liquidity in money markets. This instability caused significant rate spikes and raised concerns about the overall health of the financial system.
  3. When money market rates soared unexpectedly, it prompted the Fed to step in as a major lender. This was a significant move to bring balance back to the financial markets and highlight the Fed's critical role in managing economic stability.

Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.0% Year-over-Year in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 31 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Economic Indicators
  1. Freddie Mac’s national house price index rose 1.0% year‑over‑year in November, but that is a new cycle low and monthly gains are very small, so overall growth is slowing and could turn negative sometime in 2026.
  2. Nineteen states and D.C. remain below their prior price peaks and many cities have large drops — Punta Gorda is down about 21% from its recent peak and Austin is down over 17%.
  3. Rising inventory and weak sales are reducing upward price pressure, and Freddie Mac and NAR data suggest other indexes like Case‑Shiller will likely show a similar slowdown.

Five Reasons To Be Optimistic About Work in 2025

Workforce Futurist by Andy Spence • 390 implied HN points • 01 Jan 25
đź’Ľ Business Economic Indicators
  1. Many employers plan to hire more workers, making 2025 a good year for job opportunities. This growth is seen globally, especially in countries like India and the U.S.
  2. The Misery Index, which measures economic discomfort, is low, suggesting overall economic conditions are relatively stable. However, it doesn't account for every hardship faced by workers.
  3. Remote work is becoming more common, giving people the flexibility to work in comfortable environments. Digital tools are also allowing individuals to create their own businesses, leading to more ways to earn money.

CoreWeave Is Cracking

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 40 implied HN points • 17 Nov 25
đź’° Finance Economic Indicators
  1. CoreWeave seems to be overly reliant on big companies like Nvidia and Microsoft to survive. This support makes its stability questionable.
  2. There are signs of increasing investor fear as CoreWeave's credit risk levels are rising. This could suggest that people are worried about the company's future.
  3. The company's initial success looks shaky, especially after needing help to get its IPO off the ground. This raises doubts about its long-term viability.

What is “GDP” and why is it such an important economic indicator?

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 259 implied HN points • 07 Sep 23
đź’° Finance Economic Indicators
  1. GDP stands for Gross Domestic Product, and it adds up the value of everything produced in a country over a specific time, usually a year. A higher GDP means a country produces more goods and services.
  2. There are three main ways to calculate GDP: by production, income, or expenditure. The most common method is the expenditure approach, which measures total spending on goods and services.
  3. GDP has limitations since it doesn’t account for unpaid work or environmental factors. It also only measures cash transactions, so important activities that don't involve money are excluded.

Daily Chartbook #222

Daily Chartbook • 1388 implied HN points • 22 Jun 23
đź’° Finance Economic Indicators
  1. The number of homes for sale in the U.S. has dropped to its lowest level and saw the first annual decline since April 2022.
  2. The median U.S. home sale price was $419,103 in May, just a 3.1% decrease from the previous year.
  3. The American Trucking Associations' For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index rose 2.4% in May after a decrease in April.

Fannie Mae Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Highest Since Housing Bust (ex-pandemic)

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 28 Nov 25
đź’° Finance Economic Indicators
  1. The serious delinquency rates for single-family homes by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been mostly stable lately. Both rates are below pre-pandemic levels but have increased slightly from last year.
  2. Fannie Mae's multi-family delinquency rate has reached its highest point since the last housing crash, signaling potential struggles in that sector.
  3. Mortgages that are overdue by three months or more are counted as delinquent, and loans from before the financial crisis still show some ongoing issues.

Q3 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Foreclosures Increase Slightly

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 05 Nov 25
đź’° Finance Economic Indicators
  1. Mortgage originations are mainly going to people with high credit scores, showing stricter lending standards now compared to the past.
  2. There has been a slight increase in people falling behind on their mortgage payments, which is something to keep a close eye on.
  3. Foreclosures are still low overall, but they've seen a small rise likely due to the end of some temporary protections.

Money Market Update

Concoda • 308 implied HN points • 26 Oct 24
đź’° Finance Economic Indicators
  1. The money market faced a tough quarter-end, but there were no serious problems reported. Most banks didn't heavily rely on the Fed's emergency funding options this time.
  2. A new measure called reserve demand elasticity (RDE) suggests that the banks currently have enough reserves. This means the Fed can keep interest rates stable for now.
  3. Funding pressures are growing, but they haven't reached a critical point. This signals that while banks feel some strain, they are managing for the time being.

Data Update 4 for 2023: Country Risk - Measures and Implications

Musings on Markets • 379 implied HN points • 12 Feb 23
đź’° Finance Economic Indicators
  1. Country risk affects investments everywhere, not just in emerging markets. Every country has its own level of risk, which is important for investors to understand.
  2. Investors need to look beyond just company performance and consider how a country's situation influences their investments. Government actions and country stability matter a lot.
  3. Assessing country risk involves looking at different factors like political stability and economic conditions. Measures like sovereign ratings and CDS spreads help evaluate this risk.

Economic Calendar for the Week of June 29th

Alex's Personal Blog • 98 implied HN points • 29 Jun 25
đź’° Finance Economic Indicators
  1. This week has many important economic events scheduled, like the Chicago PMI and speeches from Fed officials. These could affect how the market moves.
  2. Globally, countries like Japan and Germany are also releasing key data such as housing starts and import prices. This shows how interconnected economies are.
  3. Friday celebrates July 4th in the U.S., but there are still notable earnings and economic events happening. It's a good reminder to keep an eye on the market even during holidays.

Lawler: Another Strange NAR Reading on Northeast Median Sales Prices

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 19 Dec 25
đź’Ľ Business Economic Indicators
  1. A national report showed very small year‑over‑year gains in median existing home prices, with the Northeast barely rising, which contradicts state realtor and MLS data.
  2. This pattern mirrors a prior instance when preliminary estimates were later revised much higher, so a substantial upward revision—especially for the Northeast—seems likely in a future release.
  3. The discrepancy implies preliminary regional median price estimates can be unreliable, so local MLS/state data or later revised reports are safer for assessing true price trends.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.13 million SAAR in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 19 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Economic Indicators
  1. Existing-home sales rose 0.5% in November to a 4.13 million SAAR but are about 1.0% lower than a year ago and have roughly hovered around a 4 million annual pace for the past three years.
  2. Inventory fell seasonally to 1.43 million and months-of-supply dropped to 4.2 months, yet inventory is up 7.5% year-over-year and is higher on a months-of-supply basis than before the pandemic.
  3. Median existing-home prices increased modestly, up 1.2% year-over-year to $409,200, indicating slight price gains despite flat sales and mixed supply signals.

October 2025 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 21 implied HN points • 22 Nov 25
đź’° Finance Economic Indicators
  1. Rents and prices are slowly increasing, but only a little. For example, national rent is up around 2.5% from last year.
  2. Home prices are expected to remain stable, with flat growth projected for 2025. This aligns with some predictions, but there are still uncertainties beneath the surface.
  3. Overall, the housing market is in a long, boring expansion phase. However, there are small fluctuations that make it hard to predict exactly what's happening.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-November 2025

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 13 Nov 25
đź’° Finance Economic Indicators
  1. Home sales are down this year, leading to increased inventory and pressure on prices. It means buyers have more options but might see lower prices.
  2. House prices are generally trending down, even though there's been a slight increase this year. This could be affected by changing mortgage rates and rising unemployment.
  3. Recent data shows a mix of increases in house prices, but these are lagging indicators, meaning the numbers might not reflect current market conditions.

Country Risk: The Mid-year Update for 2022

Musings on Markets • 519 implied HN points • 14 Jul 22
đź’° Finance Economic Indicators
  1. Country risk varies significantly between different nations. Countries with stable economies and strong political systems are generally safer for investments than those with instability or violence.
  2. Corruption and legal protections are vital factors influencing country risk. High corruption levels can increase costs for businesses, while strong legal systems provide better support for contracts and property rights.
  3. Recent global events, like the conflict in Ukraine, have raised risk levels across many countries. This has resulted in higher costs of capital for investors and increased equity risk premiums globally.