The hottest Economic Indicators Substack posts right now

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Freddie Mac House Price Index Declined in May; Up 2.2% Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 30 Jun 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Investment Economic Indicators Data Analysis
  1. The Freddie Mac House Price Index dropped by 0.23% in May but is still up 2.2% compared to last year. This shows that while prices are currently declining, there has been some growth over the past year.
  2. Florida and Texas are experiencing significant price declines, with 17 out of the 30 cities with the biggest drops located in these states. This trend indicates that real estate markets in these areas are facing challenges.
  3. Overall, 31 states and Washington D.C. have seen house prices fall since their peak. With inventory increasing and low sales, housing price growth may slow down even more in the future.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.7% Below 2022 Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 26 Jun 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic Indicators House Prices Inflation
  1. Inflation-adjusted house prices are currently 1.7% below their peak in 2022, meaning they have slightly decreased recently.
  2. When considering the price-to-rent ratio, this is also 8.8% lower than it was at the peak last year, indicating changes in housing affordability.
  3. Overall, while house prices are historically high, they remain about 10.9% above the peak levels from the previous housing bubble.

New Home Sales Decrease to 623,000 Annual Rate in May

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 25 Jun 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Housing Data Economic Indicators
  1. New home sales in May 2025 dropped to an annual rate of 623,000, which is lower than previous months and last year.
  2. There is an increase in the supply of new homes available, with nearly 10 months' worth of inventory on the market, which is much higher than normal.
  3. The prices of new homes have decreased, with a 7% drop from the peak, partly due to a change in the types of homes being sold.

Investing Update: Why Are Investors Scared?

Spilled Coffee • 40 implied HN points • 15 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Economic Indicators Stock Analysis Risk Assessment
  1. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq recently bounced back, showing positive growth for 2025, with the S&P just shy of an all-time high. This is encouraging for investors looking for potential gains.
  2. Despite the positive market performance, more than 40% of stocks aren't above their 200-day average, indicating some underlying struggles. This is something to keep an eye on.
  3. A historical trend suggests that when the S&P 500 is up over 3% by Valentine's Day, it tends to finish the year strong. This year follows that pattern, creating optimism for many investors.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.03 million SAAR in May; Down 0.7% YoY

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 23 Jun 25
💼 Business Real Estate Sales Market Trends Economic Indicators
  1. Existing-home sales rose by 0.8% in May compared to April, but they are still down 0.7% from last year. This trend indicates a mixed market performance.
  2. The total housing inventory increased significantly, showing a rise of 20.3% year-over-year. More choices for buyers could ease some pressure on the market.
  3. The months of unsold inventory went up to 4.6 months, which means houses are staying on the market longer. This level is higher than before the pandemic, suggesting a shift in buyer demand.
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3 Stocks I Have My Eye On

Spilled Coffee • 40 implied HN points • 12 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Financial Analysis Market Trends Economic Indicators
  1. The author is watching three different stocks, each in a unique situation. One stock is doing very well and hitting all-time highs.
  2. Another stock is currently at a multi-year low, indicating it might be a good buying opportunity.
  3. The third stock is slowly recovering from a significant drop and showing signs of improvement, suggesting it could be turning around.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in May

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 11 Jun 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Sales Data Inventory Analysis Economic Indicators
  1. Closed home sales in May decreased by 3.9% compared to last year, which indicates a continuing downward trend in the housing market.
  2. New listings of homes increased by 10.2% year-over-year, but they're still lower than the levels seen in May 2019.
  3. Active inventory is rising significantly, with an increase of 36.9% compared to last year, showing more options for buyers this spring.

Investing Update: Record Highs Here To Stay?

Spilled Coffee • 84 implied HN points • 25 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Stock Analysis Sentiment Analysis Economic Indicators
  1. The stock market has reached new all-time highs after a rough start to January, showing strong growth. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow have all seen gains already in the new year.
  2. There is a clear uptrend in the market as more stocks are moving upward, indicating a bull market. Historically, new highs in the market often ensure continued growth.
  3. Investor sentiment shifted from bearish to more positive as the market bounced back. When many investors lean towards negativity, it often leads to a rebound in optimism.

Housing Market Index and Single Family Starts

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 17 Jun 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Analysis Economic Indicators
  1. Builder sentiment in the housing market is low, reaching one of the lowest levels since 2012. This means builders are feeling less confident about selling new homes.
  2. There has been a noticeable increase in price incentives from builders as the housing market slows down. This suggests they are trying to attract buyers who might be hesitant.
  3. Overall, the housing market is softening, which could impact future construction and development plans.

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in May

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 13 Jun 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic Indicators Housing Data
  1. Existing home sales in May are estimated to be around 4.03 million, a slight increase from April but a small drop from last year. It's important to watch how these numbers change over time.
  2. The median price for single-family homes in May went up by only 1% compared to last year. Prices varied by region, with some areas seeing slight increases or decreases.
  3. The National Association of Realtors will release official sales data soon, which will give a clearer picture of the housing market.

News of the Week (Jan 29 - Feb 2)

Stock Market Nerd • 707 implied HN points • 03 Feb 24
💰 Finance Earnings Market Analysis Investing Economic Indicators Stock Market
  1. Apple beat revenue estimates but had mixed performance in different product segments, especially in China.
  2. Mastercard surpassed revenue estimates and saw growth in various sectors like cross-border revenue and value-add services.
  3. Match's financial results were strong, although challenges like negative payer growth from price hikes are temporary.
  4. AMD ranked well in Cloud Workload Security and continues to expand its offerings with the potential for higher revenue and margins.
  5. CrowdStrike received recognition in Forrester's Cloud Workload Security report and shows promising growth potential with increased modules for clients.

Five Reasons To Be Optimistic About Work in 2025

Workforce Futurist by Andy Spence • 390 implied HN points • 01 Jan 25
💼 Business Workforce Entrepreneurship Remote work Hiring Trends Economic Indicators
  1. Many employers plan to hire more workers, making 2025 a good year for job opportunities. This growth is seen globally, especially in countries like India and the U.S.
  2. The Misery Index, which measures economic discomfort, is low, suggesting overall economic conditions are relatively stable. However, it doesn't account for every hardship faced by workers.
  3. Remote work is becoming more common, giving people the flexibility to work in comfortable environments. Digital tools are also allowing individuals to create their own businesses, leading to more ways to earn money.

Investing Update: Has Sentiment Shifted? 

Spilled Coffee • 32 implied HN points • 18 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Economic Indicators Personal Finance Portfolio Management
  1. The stock market had a positive week, with notable gains in the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow indexes. This followed a strong inflation report that boosted investor confidence.
  2. Inflation is still a concern, with recent CPI readings showing slight increases. The new presidential administration will face challenges related to managing this inflation.
  3. Hedge funds performed well in 2024, with many beating the S&P 500's strong return. Personal portfolio gains were significantly high, leading to discussions about future investment strategies.

My Portfolio Breakdown

Spilled Coffee • 72 implied HN points • 20 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Portfolio Market Trends Economic Indicators
  1. The author's portfolio has increased by 52.10% in 2024, showing strong performance. It's great to see a significant growth in investments like this.
  2. For 2024, this might be the sixth time in eight years that the portfolio has outperformed the S&P 500. It indicates a consistent strategy that works well over time.
  3. The author is sharing the current portfolio details exclusively with paid subscribers. It's a way to provide more in-depth insights for those who are more engaged.

Data Update 3 for 2024: A Rule-breaking Year for Interest Rates

Musings on Markets • 599 implied HN points • 25 Jan 24
💰 Finance Interest Rates Bond Markets Corporate Finance Economic Indicators
  1. Interest rates in 2023 showed little change, challenging the idea that the Fed is solely responsible for their movements. It's more about market dynamics and inflation.
  2. An inverted yield curve has traditionally been seen as a warning sign for recessions, but recent events in 2023 suggest it isn't always accurate. The economy remained stable despite the inversion.
  3. Looking forward, inflation will play a key role in determining interest rates in 2024. If inflation continues to drop, long-term rates might go down too.

The Fed's Repo Defensive: Part I

Concoda • 508 implied HN points • 20 Oct 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Market Analysis Economic Indicators Liquidity management
  1. The Fed's repo facility has been used for the first time by major market players during a tough financial period. This shows it can help keep rates in check, but there are still issues to address.
  2. Over the past few years, the Fed's approach to managing its balance sheet has led to unstable liquidity in money markets. This instability caused significant rate spikes and raised concerns about the overall health of the financial system.
  3. When money market rates soared unexpectedly, it prompted the Fed to step in as a major lender. This was a significant move to bring balance back to the financial markets and highlight the Fed's critical role in managing economic stability.

November 2024 New Home Sales

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 24 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Housing Data Investment Analysis Economic Indicators
  1. New home sales are low, but this is not always a bad sign. It could mean there's room for growth in the market.
  2. There's a high inventory of homes available, giving buyers more options. This can lead to better deals for those looking to purchase.
  3. Having a lot of homes for sale can create competition and could eventually lead to a more balanced housing market. It's important to watch how this evolves.

Money Market Update

Concoda • 308 implied HN points • 26 Oct 24
💰 Finance Market Analysis Federal Reserve Economic Indicators
  1. The money market faced a tough quarter-end, but there were no serious problems reported. Most banks didn't heavily rely on the Fed's emergency funding options this time.
  2. A new measure called reserve demand elasticity (RDE) suggests that the banks currently have enough reserves. This means the Fed can keep interest rates stable for now.
  3. Funding pressures are growing, but they haven't reached a critical point. This signals that while banks feel some strain, they are managing for the time being.

In Search of Safe Havens: The Trust Deficit and Risk-free Investments!

Musings on Markets • 599 implied HN points • 15 Aug 23
💰 Finance Investments Market Trends Risk management Economic Indicators Corporate Finance
  1. Risk-free investments aren't always truly safe, especially during financial crises. Events like the 2008 crisis showed that even government bonds can carry risk.
  2. Inflation and real interest rates play a big role in determining risk-free rates, meaning they can change based on economic conditions. A higher expected inflation usually leads to higher risk-free rates.
  3. The trust in governments to honor their debt has declined over time, leading to uncertainty about using government bonds as risk-free investments. This loss of trust makes it essential to reassess what we consider safe investments.

25 Stocks I'm Watching For 2025: Part 2

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 18 implied HN points • 31 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Market Trends Financial Analysis Economic Indicators
  1. It’s important to look at market trends and themes for the upcoming year. This helps in choosing the right stocks to watch.
  2. Last year's stock picks didn't perform as well as the S&P 500, showing that not all investments roped in big gains.
  3. Identifying potential stocks early can provide insight for making better investment decisions in the future.

Follow Up to Case-Shiller & Filtering

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 19 Nov 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Analysis Data Trends Economic Indicators
  1. The author analyzed different housing data like Case-Shiller and rent inflation. It's interesting to see how these data points relate to each other.
  2. There are components in the Erdmann Housing Tracker that provide extra insights on the housing market. Comparing these with other measurements helps to understand trends better.
  3. The analysis is not meant for academic purposes, but it's a fun exploration of the data. It shows how digging into numbers can reveal patterns.

What's The Bear Case For Stocks?

Spilled Coffee • 40 implied HN points • 20 Nov 24
💰 Finance Stock Market Market Valuation Economic Indicators
  1. The stock market is doing really well right now, with many people feeling optimistic, but that can lead to risks if everyone thinks only good things will happen.
  2. Valuations for stocks are at historic highs, which means they might be overpriced and could face a correction soon.
  3. The rising cost of the national debt is a big concern that could impact the economy and market stability in the future.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 57 implied HN points • 14 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Markets Real Estate Market Trends Sales Data Economic Indicators
  1. The National Association of Realtors will report on January home sales, which are expected to decrease. People are anticipating a drop from December's sales figures.
  2. In January 2024, home sales were reported at around 4.00 million, showing a trend in sales that people are keeping an eye on.
  3. Data comparisons from January 2019 will also be included, helping to understand how the market has changed over time.

New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 26 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic Indicators Housing supply Sales Data
  1. New home sales dropped to an annual rate of 657,000 in January, marking a decline from previous months. This shows a slowdown in the housing market compared to last year.
  2. The average price of new homes has decreased by 5.8% from its highest point due to changes in what types of homes are selling.
  3. There is a high inventory of homes available, with a supply of 9 months, which is more than the usual range of 4 to 6 months. This indicates more choices for buyers but also suggests a slower market.

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 17 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Interest Rates Economic Indicators Home Sales
  1. Existing home sales are predicted to be around 4.09 million for January, showing a slight drop from December but an increase from last year.
  2. The average sale price for homes has risen about 5% compared to a year ago, indicating a continuing trend in increasing home values.
  3. The expected real interest rates have returned to levels similar to before the financial crisis, suggesting a more stable economic outlook.

Economic Calendar for the Week of November 4th, 2024

Alex's Personal Blog • 32 implied HN points • 04 Nov 24
💰 Finance Earnings Reports Economic Indicators Interest Rates Market Trends Inflation
  1. This week has a packed economic calendar with important earnings reports coming from big companies like New York Times and Qualcomm.
  2. The U.S. elections are on Tuesday, which could distract from other economic updates but are still very important.
  3. Thursday is crucial as the Federal Reserve will announce their decision on interest rates, along with jobless claims data and several company earnings.

What is “GDP” and why is it such an important economic indicator?

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 259 implied HN points • 07 Sep 23
💰 Finance Economic Indicators Investment Analysis
  1. GDP stands for Gross Domestic Product, and it adds up the value of everything produced in a country over a specific time, usually a year. A higher GDP means a country produces more goods and services.
  2. There are three main ways to calculate GDP: by production, income, or expenditure. The most common method is the expenditure approach, which measures total spending on goods and services.
  3. GDP has limitations since it doesn’t account for unpaid work or environmental factors. It also only measures cash transactions, so important activities that don't involve money are excluded.

California Home Sales Down 1.9% YoY in January; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 20 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Investment Market Trends Economic Indicators Real Estate
  1. California home sales fell by 1.9% in January compared to last year. This drop marks the first year-over-year decline in eight months.
  2. The median price for homes in California decreased from December but is still 6.3% higher than a year ago. This shows mixed signs in the housing market.
  3. Inventory of homes for sale increased significantly, up 27.4% year-over-year. More homes are available now, which could change the dynamics of the market.

1.73 million Total Housing Completions in 2024 including Manufactured Homes; Most Since 2006

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 47 implied HN points • 20 Jan 25
💼 Business Real Estate Market Trends Construction Economic Indicators Housing policy
  1. In 2024, there were 1.73 million housing completions, which is the highest since 2006. This means more homes are now finished and ready for people.
  2. Completions increased by 12.5% compared to the previous year. This is a good sign for the housing market as more homes are being built.
  3. Even without counting manufactured homes, there were still around 1.63 million completions in 2024. This shows a strong upward trend in housing development.

New Home Sales Increase to 698,000 Annual Rate in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 27 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Sales Data Economic Indicators Housing supply
  1. New home sales in December 2024 hit 698,000, which is a good increase from the previous months. This suggests the housing market is showing some positive movement.
  2. The median price of new homes has dropped by 7.2% from its peak. This could make new homes more affordable for buyers.
  3. There are currently about 8.5 months of new home supply available, which is higher than the normal range. This means there are lots of homes for buyers to choose from.

Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 05 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Economic Indicators Market Analysis
  1. Asking rents have mostly stayed the same compared to last year. Recently, there's been a slight downward trend, but rents are still high compared to earlier years.
  2. The number of available rental units is increasing, leading to more options for renters. This rise in supply is helping to keep rents stable and pressures on affordability.
  3. Single-family rent growth is at its lowest in over 14 years. Even though rent increases are slowing, demand for rentals is expected to remain strong due to job and wage growth.

Data Update 4 for 2023: Country Risk - Measures and Implications

Musings on Markets • 379 implied HN points • 12 Feb 23
💰 Finance Risk Assessment Investment Analysis Market Trends Economic Indicators
  1. Country risk affects investments everywhere, not just in emerging markets. Every country has its own level of risk, which is important for investors to understand.
  2. Investors need to look beyond just company performance and consider how a country's situation influences their investments. Government actions and country stability matter a lot.
  3. Assessing country risk involves looking at different factors like political stability and economic conditions. Measures like sovereign ratings and CDS spreads help evaluate this risk.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.1% Below 2022 Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 29 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Inflation Market Trends Economic Indicators Investment
  1. House prices adjusted for inflation are currently 1.1% lower than their peak in 2022. This shows that even when prices rise, the increase may not match inflation.
  2. The price-to-rent index is also lower than its 2022 peak by 7.8%. This means it might be cheaper to rent compared to buying right now.
  3. National house prices are historically high, being 11.6% above the previous housing bubble peak. However, price growth may slow down in the near future.