The hottest Contest Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top U.S. Politics Topics

Who Predicted 2023?

Astral Codex Ten • 8534 implied HN points • 05 Mar 24
🕹 Technology Forecasting Prediction Contest Algorithm Data Analysis
  1. The Annual Forecasting Contest on astralcodexten.com involves participants making predictions about various questions, helping to determine if one identifiable genius or aggregated mathematical predictions work best for foreseeing the future.
  2. The winners of the contest were both amateurs and seasoned forecasting veterans, showcasing a mix of skill and luck in predicting outcomes.
  3. Metaculus outperformed prediction markets, superforecasters, and the wisdom of crowds in the contest, suggesting that consistent high performance might be rare but achievable with specific methods like those used by superforecaster Ezra Karger.

Open Thread 320

Astral Codex Ten • 2821 implied HN points • 18 Mar 24
🕹 Technology Community Contest AI Research Poetry
  1. The 2023 Forecasting Contest winners were determined with an ambiguous scoring criteria, resulting in a few surprise winners
  2. The ACX Grants impact market has received 53 proposals, including projects such as growing blood vessels in the lab and a swarm of robotic bees
  3. A Reddit thread discussing an AI-generated reading of a poem from ACX highlights the speculation around AI involvement in online discussions

Open Thread 319

Astral Codex Ten • 3166 implied HN points • 11 Mar 24
🚌 Education Discussion Contest Opportunity
  1. Updates on the 2023 Forecasting Contest were shared, including progress on showing everyone's score, correction on commenter performance, potential prize donation, and interactive analyses by Jordan Breffle.
  2. A comment on race and lived experience sparked discussion on Roma heritage and the challenges faced by different groups, revealing complexities in language and identity.
  3. The Center for Effective Altruism is seeking a new head of communications, offering a significant remote position with a salary up to mid-6-figures.

Open Thread 316

Astral Codex Ten • 2271 implied HN points • 19 Feb 24
🕹 Technology Community Grants Research Contest AI safety
  1. ACX provides an open thread for weekly discussions where users can post anything, ask questions, and engage in various topics.
  2. ACX Grants project includes initiatives like exploring a mutation to turn off suffering and opportunities for researchers in AI safety.
  3. ACX mentions upcoming events like a book review contest with updated rules and a pushed back due date.
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VFYW: Don't Mess With Google

The Weekly Dish • 71 implied HN points • 17 Feb 24
🎨 Art & Illustration Photography Visual art Contest Drawing Painting
  1. The View From Your Window contest features various interesting locations and challenges for participants to guess the correct spot based on clues in the photo.
  2. Winners of the contest express gratitude and share their experiences and strategies for identifying the view, adding a personal touch to the competition.
  3. Participants share their insights, struggles, and observations while trying to decipher the location in the photo, making the contest engaging and interactive.