The hottest Voting Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top U.S. Politics Topics

Time to Retire "Demographics is Destiny"

Richard Hanania's Newsletter • 2535 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Demographics Political theory Political parties
  1. People's political views often don't come from their backgrounds but from emotions and cultural connections. This means demographics alone don't predict how someone will vote.
  2. Political appeal can change over time, as seen in shifts in how different groups vote. Issues like personality and presentation can matter more than policies.
  3. Instead of focusing on demographics, it's more effective to convince influential people and share ideas. The masses are often influenced by trends and marketing rather than deep understanding.

Mantic Monday: Judgment Day

Astral Codex Ten • 13283 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Democracy Political Climate Foreign Policy
  1. Elections can feel like a wild rollercoaster ride, creating a lot of anxiety and drama for everyone involved. Many people are so tense about the outcomes that it can affect their mental health.
  2. Prediction markets offer a way for people to bet on outcomes, but they can be unreliable. Sometimes, one big bet can skew results, leading to people misinterpreting the chances of candidates.
  3. In the end, elections are more than just picking leaders; they're a moment where everyone feels the weight of the future. It's a reminder of our shared hopes and fears, no matter our backgrounds.

The Failure to Secure Elections

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 1378 implied HN points • 31 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Media Conspiracy Legislation
  1. There have been issues with voting technology, like a glitch in Michigan that affected some voters. This has led to accusations from both sides about election integrity.
  2. Some media outlets focus on conspiracy theories without addressing real problems in the election systems, like unauthorized votes and security lapses.
  3. The debate about election security is divided, with one side feeling ignored and the other side accused of spreading falsehoods. This causes distrust in the electoral process.

2024 Presidential Election Night Analysis Guide

COVID Reason • 376 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Demographics Political trends Analysis
  1. In the last two presidential elections, small vote margins decided the winners. It shows how every vote really counts.
  2. It's important to watch specific voter groups like Gen Z males and working-class women, as their choices can greatly affect the results.
  3. Each state has different trends and thresholds for winning, so knowing the local demographics can help predict who might win.

You don't have to endorse anyone, you can just vote (and other thoughts on the election)

The Intrinsic Perspective • 4533 implied HN points • 04 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Endorsements Voting Political Bias
  1. Endorsements from celebrities and public figures are more common now in elections. Many famous people have publicly supported candidates like Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
  2. Polls and prediction markets are often unreliable in predicting election outcomes. Their predictions don't always match the real results.
  3. Voting should be seen as an expression of your values. You don’t need to endorse someone to make your voice heard at the polls.
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Secrets Of The Median Voter Theorem

Astral Codex Ten • 13834 implied HN points • 23 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Political parties Political theory Political strategy
  1. The Median Voter Theorem suggests that candidates will gravitate towards the political center to win elections. This means that in a fair competition, it's likely they will align closely with the beliefs of average voters.
  2. In real life, candidates often have to balance different voter bases, especially during primary elections, which can pull them away from the center. This can lead to contradictions in their positions when they face general elections.
  3. Political parties may not always be as rational as the theorem suggests. Instead of moving to the center, they can sometimes collude by proposing extreme policies, which keeps them equally distant from the median voter but serves their interests together.

Hey Democrats, This Is Why You’re Losing Young Men

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 1758 implied HN points • 28 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Voting Political strategy Voter Demographics
  1. Democrats struggle to connect with young male voters, which could impact upcoming elections.
  2. Some recent campaign ads have missed the mark, focusing on inappropriate and exaggerated themes.
  3. There is a belief among some Democrats that young men care only about sexual issues rather than economic and social concerns.

Calling It

Dana Blankenhorn: Facing the Future • 138 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Candidates Voting Policy
  1. Democrats have strong advantages for the upcoming election, including a solid candidate and effective campaign strategy. This suggests they are in a good position to win.
  2. Polls indicate that Democratic candidates are performing well, which could mean the overall race is more favorable for them than it appears.
  3. The strong economy and recent political events are likely to boost Democratic support, indicating a positive outlook for democracy in the upcoming elections.

Pervy Voters

Magic + Loss • 516 implied HN points • 30 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Political Behavior Political Commentary Party Politics
  1. Some voters make choices just to be rebellious, not because they truly believe in a candidate or party. They might want to shock people or go against the norm.
  2. Voting is usually about practical interests, like money or personal benefits, rather than just trying to be edgy or nonconformist.
  3. Spite can drive people to vote against their own values or interests, which can have serious consequences for democracy.

Here Comes The 2020 Playbook Again!

Emerald Robinson’s The Right Way • 3710 implied HN points • 24 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Media Political issues Government
  1. Media is warning about delayed election results again, just like in 2020. This raises concerns about the voting process.
  2. Certain states consistently struggle to count votes quickly, which leads to suspicions about their election integrity.
  3. Voters are already experiencing issues with voting machines, raising more doubts about the fairness of the elections.

Election Update 7: A Possible Ostensible Theoretical End

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 11634 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Candidates Voting Political News Public Opinion
  1. Donald Trump seems to have won Pennsylvania according to some news sources, while others say we have to wait longer for all the votes to be counted.
  2. Fox News and Scripps both called Pennsylvania and Wisconsin for Trump, suggesting he may have won fairly this time.
  3. The situation is tense and could lead to chaotic reactions depending on the final results, but for now, it's time to rest and see what tomorrow brings.

People Aren't Garbage. Partisan Politics Is

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 12968 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voting Partisanship Media Political Opinions Public Sentiment
  1. People are not defined by their political choices. Voting can say little about who we are as individuals.
  2. The media often ignores the majority of people who don’t vote, creating a misleading view of public opinion. This exclusion strengthens the divide between those who are politically active and those who are not.
  3. Caring deeply about politics is seen as essential now, and those who aren't invested are looked down upon. This mindset can harm relationships and mischaracterize people.

SHOW NOTES: We Have Some Trends

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 1498 implied HN points • 25 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Political trends Campaigns Polls
  1. Early voting trends are showing an unusual pattern in several states, like Nevada where Republicans are voting more than Democrats. This could indicate a shift in voter sentiment ahead of the election.
  2. In Georgia, a significant number of early voters didn't participate in the last two elections, and there’s a noticeable decline in black voters compared to previous years. This change could affect overall turnout and results.
  3. Polling shows the race is tight, with a sense of momentum building for Trump. However, the election outcome still depends on actual voter turnout, and anything can happen between now and then.

ACX Local Voting Guides

Astral Codex Ten • 4198 implied HN points • 22 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Local Politics Political parties
  1. Local voting guides are available for various cities, helping voters understand their options. Each city offers unique insights and recommendations based on local issues.
  2. Cities like Austin and Boston have put a lot of thought into their guides, even discussing candidates who may not fit typical party lines. This can help voters make better choices.
  3. Voting decisions can be influenced by community discussions and guides, highlighting important issues and candidate positions in a way that's easy to digest.

Election Night, Up All Night

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 5572 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigning Political Analysis Voting Political Commentary
  1. Expect a long and possibly dramatic election night. Many people hope for quick results, but it might take a while.
  2. Campaigns are actively working hard on election night, checking turnout and reaching out to voters. This shows how important every vote is.
  3. Different news reporters and channels have their own takes, making election night feel busy and high-energy, but it's important to stay calm and informed.

All over but the shoutin'

Unreported Truths • 39 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Democracy Voting Political trends Candidates
  1. Free speech is very important, but we must respect the results of democratic elections, no matter who wins. It's vital for maintaining our democracy.
  2. There's currently no evidence of significant voting fraud, so we should trust the election process and accept the outcome calmly.
  3. A peaceful transfer of power is essential for democracy, and we should all encourage others to vote and participate in the election.

Incessantly calling men toxic is a bad way to get their votes

The Rubesletter by Matt Ruby (of Vooza) | Sent every Tuesday • 2994 implied HN points • 07 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Political parties Public Opinion Media influence
  1. Calling men toxic all the time isn’t a good strategy to win their votes. It’s better to understand and address their feelings instead.
  2. Instead of only focusing on culture wars, politicians should talk about real issues that affect people's lives, like economic struggles.
  3. Men have their own challenges and need to feel valued and heard. Engaging them positively is key to gaining their support.

Election Update 5: First Anomaly?

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 4483 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Political Analysis Party Politics Election Law
  1. There are unusual changes in the election results, particularly in Virginia, where Trump gained a lead unexpectedly. It's important to carefully watch how these numbers develop.
  2. Minor party candidates like Jill Stein and Chase Oliver are getting a small percentage of votes, and they might be blamed if things don't go well for the main candidates.
  3. Early reactions and notable changes in vote counts are a common part of elections, and they can lead to a lot of online discussions and confusion.

ATW Livestream Tonight at 8 PM ET/7 PM CT

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 2276 implied HN points • 11 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Political narratives Livestream
  1. The livestream tonight at 8 PM ET will cover recent news and stories following the election. It's a chance to hear different perspectives and insights about what's happening now.
  2. California is still counting votes, showing that election results can take time to finalize. This creates space for ongoing discussions and assumptions about the election outcome.
  3. Narratives and opinions after an election can really shape future events. The discussions on the livestream will explore how those narratives influence the next few years.

ONE WEEK! Here's Your Guide to Election Night

COVID Reason • 178 implied HN points • 29 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Political strategy Demographics
  1. It's important to look closely at county-level data for the election. This helps predict where candidates might do well or struggle.
  2. For Republicans to win, they need to do better in rural areas and keep suburban voters from turning away. They also need to attract more Hispanic voters compared to previous elections.
  3. A detailed spreadsheet is available that tracks key indicators for the election. This will help gauge how each area is leaning as the results come in.

The Power We Have

Thinking about... • 349 implied HN points • 02 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Authoritarianism Public Sentiment
  1. We have the power to influence our future through voting. Every vote matters and can help stop negative outcomes.
  2. Trump's tactics aim to scare and demoralize the majority. It's important to stay hopeful and not let fear take over.
  3. Voting can bring positive change and open doors to a brighter future. Participating in elections is a small but powerful act.

Fragile

benn.substack • 997 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voting Democracy Political History
  1. Voting in America seems meaningless as no single vote has ever made a difference in a presidential election. People understand this but still feel it's important to participate.
  2. Many vote out of a sense of duty or the desire to be part of something bigger, even if they know their individual vote might not matter.
  3. The belief that our vote is important is a hopeful idea we hold onto, and it’s this belief that encourages people to participate in democracy.

How bad will you feel when your side loses the election?

Brain Pizza • 662 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Emotions Cognition Public Opinion
  1. People often think losing an election or a game will make them really sad, but they usually recover faster than they expect.
  2. We tend to imagine the worst emotional outcome when our side loses. However, we are naturally resilient and adapt quickly.
  3. Many times, we forget how quickly we can move on from disappointments and let other distractions take over our feelings.

Vote However You Feel; This Whole Show Is About Feelings Anyway

Caitlin’s Newsletter • 2021 implied HN points • 02 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Political Discourse Public Sentiment Government Critique
  1. Voting is mostly about how it makes you feel rather than bringing real change. Focus on what gives you comfort on election day.
  2. No matter how you vote, the big issues like war and environmental destruction will keep happening. Your vote won't really change that.
  3. To make real change, spread the truth and help people understand the systems in place. It's more important than just voting.

Key Swing State Counties to Watch in the 2024 Election (Part 1)

COVID Reason • 257 implied HN points • 22 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Analysis Political trends
  1. Key swing states in the 2024 election include Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Virginia. These are crucial for determining who wins.
  2. Certain counties within these states, called bellwether counties, often reflect overall election outcomes. Winning these counties can show how the state—and even the national election—might go.
  3. The article highlights specific counties to watch, like Northampton in Pennsylvania and Maricopa in Arizona, and notes how shifts in voter trends can impact election results.

There’s more herding in swing state polls than at a sheep farm in the Scottish Highlands

Silver Bulletin • 1434 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polls Elections Voting Public Opinion Campaigns
  1. Many swing state polls show very close results, which seems suspicious. It's not normal for so many polls to match so closely in a tight race.
  2. Some pollsters lean towards the common opinion instead of reporting their own findings. This tendency to 'herd' can lead to less accurate overall polling results.
  3. Polling strategies may create pressure to avoid showing clear leads, causing inaccurate predictions. This can lead to surprises on election day, as true voter sentiment might not be reflected.

Insider Details: The Race for the Senate!

COVID Reason • 218 implied HN points • 23 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Legislation Voting Political strategy Campaigns
  1. The Senate race is getting tight, with many states that seemed safe for Democrats now becoming potential wins for Republicans.
  2. In important states like Ohio and Wisconsin, both parties are fighting hard as the races are seen as toss-ups.
  3. Some unexpected races, like in Nebraska, are showing strong competition for Republicans, indicating this election could lead to surprising results.

A random number generator determined the “favorite" in our forecast

Silver Bulletin • 905 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Polls Political Analysis Forecasting
  1. The presidential race is extremely close, almost a 50/50 chance for each candidate. This makes it tough to predict who will win.
  2. Recent simulations showed a slight edge for Kamala Harris, but overall results were very mixed, indicating a highly uncertain outcome.
  3. Voting is crucial in this tight race; it really comes down to what people choose, making it more important than any guessing games.

Election Countdown, 20 Days to Go: Eyes Wide Open as We Near the End.

Breaking the News • 1115 implied HN points • 16 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Economy Scandals Party Dynamics
  1. The economy is doing really well, which usually benefits the party in power. Strong economies often lead to successful elections for the candidates of the ruling party.
  2. There aren’t any major scandals surrounding the Democrats, unlike the troubles facing Trump. This gives the Democrats a cleaner slate going into the election.
  3. Despite positive factors for Democrats, polls show the election is still close. This leaves uncertainty about the outcome, as historical trends may not predict this race accurately.

Pennsylvania Update: GOP Showing BIG Increases from 2020 and 2022

COVID Reason • 297 implied HN points • 18 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Political parties Polls Campaigns
  1. Early voting in Pennsylvania shows Republicans have surged by over 51% since 2020, with an even bigger jump of 83% from 2022 to 2024.
  2. Democrats, however, are down by 14% since 2020 but have slightly increased their early voting compared to 2022.
  3. The biggest Democratic areas are in Philadelphia and Allegheny County, while places like Bedford and Fulton County are strongholds for Republicans.

THB 2024 Election Special

The Honest Broker Newsletter • 569 implied HN points • 30 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Political Analysis Public Opinion Campaigns
  1. Substack is offering some engaged free subscribers a chance to try paid subscriptions at no cost, which is a great opportunity for users.
  2. The creator is exploring new ways to engage with followers through Substack Notes and other platforms amidst changes in social media.
  3. There are discussions and predictions about the upcoming U.S. election, encouraging community interaction and insights from non-U.S. subscribers as well.

Polls vs Early Voting: the real data is bullish for Trump

The Dossier • 391 implied HN points • 03 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Voting Campaigns Media
  1. Polls can be misleading and don't always reflect the true situation. What's more important is the actual voter turnout.
  2. Republican voters are showing strong motivation and participation in early voting. This could be a good sign for Trump's campaign.
  3. The media often pushes narratives that may not align with the reality of voter enthusiasm. It's key to focus on the numbers rather than just headlines.

An Excellent Means of Electioneering

Looking Through the Past • 178 implied HN points • 20 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns Voting History Advertising Political culture
  1. Political posters have played a crucial role in campaigning since the 19th century. They were used to quickly catch voters' attention and communicate key messages.
  2. The artwork on these posters often included historical references, emotional imagery, and symbols to appeal to voters. This made them both informative and visually striking.
  3. As technology improved, the design of campaign posters evolved, leading to more colorful and complex images. This innovation mirrored the way political messages became more sophisticated over time.

Ignore the exit polls

The Dossier • 282 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Media Voting Polls Political Analysis
  1. Exit polls are often misleading and can manipulate how voters feel. They are not reliable indicators of actual election outcomes.
  2. These polls can create fear or doubt among voters, affecting their decisions at the polls. It’s important to stay confident and ignore this noise.
  3. Instead of relying on exit polls, focus on voting and trust that your voice matters. The real results will be clear when the polls close.

How high will turnout be?

Silver Bulletin • 562 implied HN points • 31 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Polls Political Analysis
  1. There is a sale on annual subscriptions, offering a 25% discount for new subscribers in a limited time. It's a great chance to join if you're interested.
  2. On Election Day, there will be a lot of data collection and model updates to predict outcomes. The team will run 80,000 simulations to get the best forecast possible.
  3. The predicted voter turnout is around 155.3 million, slightly lower than the last election, but still high compared to earlier years. How many people actually vote could really influence the results.

American Elections Are Unfair

Cremieux Recueil • 446 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Democracy Political Bias Reform
  1. Many American elections have unfair practices, especially how candidates are listed on ballots. This can give a big advantage to candidates whose names appear earlier alphabetically.
  2. The media can influence election outcomes by favoring certain candidates, which makes the elections feel less fair. Bias from media coverage can pressure voters and affect their choices.
  3. Fixing the unfairness in elections is easy. Simple changes like randomizing ballot order can make a big difference in creating a fair voting process.

The early vote doesn't reliably predict results

Silver Bulletin • 536 implied HN points • 30 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Polls Political Analysis Election forecasting
  1. Early voting results can be misleading and not represent the final election outcomes. This means you shouldn't take those numbers too seriously.
  2. Different states can show very different patterns in early voting, making it hard to predict actual election results based on early votes alone.
  3. Polling errors can be huge when it comes to early votes, sometimes off by more than 14 points, which is significantly worse than traditional polling standards.

Post Out of Order

David Friedman’s Substack • 251 implied HN points • 09 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Political Analysis Party Dynamics Local Politics
  1. The author usually posts every three days but chose to share something out of the usual schedule. It's okay to mix things up sometimes!
  2. A specific news story showed surprising voting trends in New York neighborhoods, especially regarding Trump. It suggests that Democrats may need to rethink their strategies.
  3. The author humorously implies that New York Democrats should seek advice from Chicago to better understand voter turnout. It's a playful way to highlight unexpected election results.