The hottest Prediction Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Technology Topics

Who Predicted 2023?

Astral Codex Ten • 8534 implied HN points • 05 Mar 24
🕹 Technology Prediction
  1. The Annual Forecasting Contest on astralcodexten.com involves participants making predictions about various questions, helping to determine if one identifiable genius or aggregated mathematical predictions work best for foreseeing the future.
  2. The winners of the contest were both amateurs and seasoned forecasting veterans, showcasing a mix of skill and luck in predicting outcomes.
  3. Metaculus outperformed prediction markets, superforecasters, and the wisdom of crowds in the contest, suggesting that consistent high performance might be rare but achievable with specific methods like those used by superforecaster Ezra Karger.

Take the inductive leap

Mindful Modeler • 279 implied HN points • 30 Apr 24
🔬 Science Prediction
  1. In a 2-day universe, predicting the future is uncertain and relies on assumptions, highlighting the challenge of inductive reasoning.
  2. The problem of induction questions the idea that the future will always mirror the past, emphasizing the need to critically assess assumptions.
  3. Taking an inductive leap involves making predictions based on past observations and acknowledging the inherent uncertainty and need to challenge assumptions in our understanding of the world.

4 Predictions for 2026

The Carousel • 35 implied HN points • 28 Jan 26
🎭️ Culture Prediction
  1. Independent publishing platforms like Substack and podcast networks look set to plateau as discovery gets harder and editorial curation becomes more important, opening room for new alternatives.
  2. The economy appears to be warming into a real boom with more investment and controlled inflation, and a sustained uptick could alleviate many social and political problems.
  3. Speculation and prediction are becoming a central cultural and economic force, with value shifting to those who can be upstream in information and make timely forecasts.
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A Pragmatic View of Uncertainty in Machine Learning

Mindful Modeler • 359 implied HN points • 06 Jun 23
🕹 Technology Prediction
  1. Machine learning models have uncertainty in predictions, categorized into aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty.
  2. Defining and distinguishing between aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty is a complex task influenced by deterministic and random factors.
  3. Conformal prediction methods capture both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty, providing prediction intervals reflecting model uncertainty.

How not to predict the future of AI

Meaningness • 79 implied HN points • 31 Mar 24
🕹 Technology Prediction
  1. Opinions about AI future are often based on feelings rather than evidence or rational reasoning.
  2. Predicting AI future using Bayesian probability can be unreliable due to the initial framing of the problem and personal biases.
  3. Understanding the risks and opportunities of AI requires acknowledging uncertainty and taking pragmatic measures while considering the impact on culture and society.

Still No Lie Detector for Large Language Models

The End of Reckoning • 58 implied HN points • 18 Jul 23
🔬 Science Prediction
  1. There is still no reliable way to detect lies in large language models.
  2. Probing the beliefs of language models is challenging due to limited behavioral evidence and an opaque internal structure.
  3. The debate on whether language models have beliefs is still ongoing, with contrasting views on the necessity of beliefs for these models.

We Just Don't Understand People

Integrity Talk • 99 implied HN points • 26 Nov 23
📖 Philosophy Prediction
  1. Understanding people's minds is complex, mostly based on intuition rather than rational thinking.
  2. Our ability to predict behaviors is limited, even with simpler organisms like ants.
  3. Social norms heavily influence our ability to understand others, but the depths of the human mind remain mysterious.

In Praise of Zeynep’s Law

The Elbow • 19 implied HN points • 14 May 23
📖 Philosophy Prediction
  1. Zeynep's Law advises to question counterintuitive findings until proven otherwise
  2. Experts can struggle to predict complex outcomes due to the unpredictable nature of the world
  3. Trusting conventional wisdom and averages is often more reliable than embracing sensationalized hot takes

Generalizing Knowledge of Twitter to "X"

Never Met a Science • 38 implied HN points • 02 Oct 23
🔬 Science Prediction
  1. Scientific knowledge of social media platforms needs constant updating due to their fast-changing nature.
  2. The traditional scientific method may not be sufficient for studying rapidly evolving subjects like social media platforms.
  3. There is a need for meta-scientific improvements in how we approach research and knowledge synthesis.

Natural Product Synthesis in the 21st Century: Beyond the Mountain Top

Axial • 7 implied HN points • 17 Feb 24
🔬 Science Prediction
  1. Natural products and drugs have similarities but drugs are a balance between complexity and accessibility for optimization.
  2. Molecular complexity in drugs is increasing to improve IP coverage, binding affinity, and effectiveness for chronic diseases.
  3. Embracing enabling methods, computational modeling, and deep exploration of complex chemical space can revolutionize natural product synthesis for therapeutic goals.

Halting prophecy

Notices to three friends • 2 implied HN points • 01 Dec 23
🔬 Science Prediction
  1. The halting problem in computer science cannot be solved because of the limitations of predicting a program's behavior.
  2. Prophecy and prediction face conceptual limitations due to the inability to fully control or predict the future.
  3. The connection between the halting problem and prophecy reveals insights about self-understanding, unpredictability, and the quest for knowledge.

The AI Progress Paradox

Am I Stronger Yet? • 1 HN point • 18 Aug 23
🕹 Technology Prediction
  1. Progress in AI can sometimes make the end goal seem further away as new challenges are revealed.
  2. Problem areas like self-driving cars and cancer research often show gradual progress and unexpected difficulties.
  3. Impressive AI achievements in specific tasks may not generalize to broader, more complex challenges.

How system change via AI might happen

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 15 Mar 24
🕹 Technology Prediction
  1. Quality jump in AI prediction is essential for driving system change. This improvement can happen in traditional prediction areas.
  2. AI transformation can be sparked by innovative startups like BeforePay. Such examples demonstrate the potential for AI to bring about significant changes.
  3. Global discussions and publications, like a bimonthly column in The Korean Herald, can shed light on the impact of AI on various systems worldwide.