The hottest Prediction Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Technology Topics

Who Predicted 2023?

Astral Codex Ten • 8534 implied HN points • 05 Mar 24
🕹 Technology Forecasting Prediction Contest Algorithm Data Analysis
  1. The Annual Forecasting Contest on astralcodexten.com involves participants making predictions about various questions, helping to determine if one identifiable genius or aggregated mathematical predictions work best for foreseeing the future.
  2. The winners of the contest were both amateurs and seasoned forecasting veterans, showcasing a mix of skill and luck in predicting outcomes.
  3. Metaculus outperformed prediction markets, superforecasters, and the wisdom of crowds in the contest, suggesting that consistent high performance might be rare but achievable with specific methods like those used by superforecaster Ezra Karger.

Take the inductive leap

Mindful Modeler • 279 implied HN points • 30 Apr 24
🔬 Science Machine Learning Induction Prediction Philosophy
  1. In a 2-day universe, predicting the future is uncertain and relies on assumptions, highlighting the challenge of inductive reasoning.
  2. The problem of induction questions the idea that the future will always mirror the past, emphasizing the need to critically assess assumptions.
  3. Taking an inductive leap involves making predictions based on past observations and acknowledging the inherent uncertainty and need to challenge assumptions in our understanding of the world.

A Pragmatic View of Uncertainty in Machine Learning

Mindful Modeler • 359 implied HN points • 06 Jun 23
🕹 Technology Machine Learning Uncertainty Modeling Prediction Calibration
  1. Machine learning models have uncertainty in predictions, categorized into aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty.
  2. Defining and distinguishing between aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty is a complex task influenced by deterministic and random factors.
  3. Conformal prediction methods capture both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty, providing prediction intervals reflecting model uncertainty.
Get a weekly roundup of the best Substack posts, by hacker news affinity:

209. Why are people so quick to proclaim failure for new products?

Hardcore Software • 575 implied HN points • 06 Jun 23
🕹 Technology Innovation Market Product Development Prediction Tech industry
  1. Most new products in the market tend to fail, so predicting failure can be a way to gain social status.
  2. Predicting failure of new products has always been popular and attention-grabbing throughout different eras.
  3. Success in launching a new product heavily depends on navigating risks and uncertainties, making predicting success challenging.

How not to predict the future of AI

Meaningness • 79 implied HN points • 31 Mar 24
🕹 Technology AI Prediction Podcasts Books Newsletter
  1. Opinions about AI future are often based on feelings rather than evidence or rational reasoning.
  2. Predicting AI future using Bayesian probability can be unreliable due to the initial framing of the problem and personal biases.
  3. Understanding the risks and opportunities of AI requires acknowledging uncertainty and taking pragmatic measures while considering the impact on culture and society.

Still No Lie Detector for Large Language Models

The End of Reckoning • 58 implied HN points • 18 Jul 23
🔬 Science Artificial Intelligence Beliefs Machine Learning Prediction Decision Theory
  1. There is still no reliable way to detect lies in large language models.
  2. Probing the beliefs of language models is challenging due to limited behavioral evidence and an opaque internal structure.
  3. The debate on whether language models have beliefs is still ongoing, with contrasting views on the necessity of beliefs for these models.

Generalizing Knowledge of Twitter to "X"

Never Met a Science • 38 implied HN points • 02 Oct 23
🔬 Science Research Prediction
  1. Scientific knowledge of social media platforms needs constant updating due to their fast-changing nature.
  2. The traditional scientific method may not be sufficient for studying rapidly evolving subjects like social media platforms.
  3. There is a need for meta-scientific improvements in how we approach research and knowledge synthesis.

Natural Product Synthesis in the 21st Century: Beyond the Mountain Top

Axial • 7 implied HN points • 17 Feb 24
🔬 Science Chemistry Biology Prediction Automation Therapeutics
  1. Natural products and drugs have similarities but drugs are a balance between complexity and accessibility for optimization.
  2. Molecular complexity in drugs is increasing to improve IP coverage, binding affinity, and effectiveness for chronic diseases.
  3. Embracing enabling methods, computational modeling, and deep exploration of complex chemical space can revolutionize natural product synthesis for therapeutic goals.

Halting prophecy

Notices to three friends • 1 implied HN point • 01 Dec 23
🔬 Science Computer Science Prediction Limitations
  1. The halting problem in computer science cannot be solved because of the limitations of predicting a program's behavior.
  2. Prophecy and prediction face conceptual limitations due to the inability to fully control or predict the future.
  3. The connection between the halting problem and prophecy reveals insights about self-understanding, unpredictability, and the quest for knowledge.

How system change via AI might happen

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 15 Mar 24
🕹 Technology AI Startups Prediction Innovation
  1. Quality jump in AI prediction is essential for driving system change. This improvement can happen in traditional prediction areas.
  2. AI transformation can be sparked by innovative startups like BeforePay. Such examples demonstrate the potential for AI to bring about significant changes.
  3. Global discussions and publications, like a bimonthly column in The Korean Herald, can shed light on the impact of AI on various systems worldwide.