The hottest Economics Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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The Return of the Rust Belt

The New Urban Order • 359 implied HN points • 08 Jan 24
💼 Business Economics
  1. Cities in the Rust Belt like Buffalo, Cincinnati, Columbus, and Indianapolis are emerging as top housing markets for 2024, showing significant price appreciation.
  2. Contrary to popular belief, cities in the Midwest and Rust Belt are now becoming more attractive due to affordability compared to traditionally booming cities in the South and West.
  3. Factors like housing affordability, climate change, and government and private investments are influencing the resurgence of the Rust Belt cities in 2024.

🗽 The legacy and future of liberalism: A Quick Q&A with … economist Deirdre McCloskey

Faster, Please! • 365 implied HN points • 19 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics
  1. Liberalism is about promoting individual freedom and innovation, not just a political label. It helps create a better future by focusing on people's rights and opportunities.
  2. The meaning of liberalism can change depending on where you are. In the U.S., it often leans toward social democracy, while in places like Latin America, it can mean supporting wealthy people's interests.
  3. Liberalism reflects a natural human desire for freedom and connection. Many believe it's key for a hopeful future, moving away from oppression or control.

The Inference Economy: Part II

Generating Conversation • 93 implied HN points • 13 Nov 25
💼 Business Economics
  1. Token demand is increasing because we're processing more data with AI and using more tokens per request. This means we need to find better ways to manage how many tokens we're using.
  2. Choosing the right model for the right task is crucial to save costs. Using smaller models for simple tasks can help a lot instead of automatically reaching for the biggest and best models.
  3. Switching between different LLM providers can be beneficial for reducing costs, but it requires careful planning to handle potential security concerns. It’s important to think about how and when we use more complex models.

Please stop overusing Baumol’s cost disease

Something to Consider • 59 implied HN points • 29 Jun 24
💼 Business Economics
  1. Baumol's cost disease is often misused to explain high costs; it doesn't make things unaffordable, just shifts what we spend on.
  2. This theory shows that wages can rise in unproductive areas, like music or certain services, because they adjust to wages in other sectors.
  3. If services like healthcare or education are getting more expensive, it might be because they're experiencing lower productivity, not because they're doomed to be unaffordable.
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What if tanker crew deaths are intolerable?

Gordian Knot News • 783 implied HN points • 14 Jan 25
💼 Business Economics
  1. When building ships, having clear rules helps keep everything running smoothly. If everyone knows the guidelines, they can work together to create quality ships on time.
  2. Bringing in third parties like the Ocean Safety Directorate can disrupt the process. Their focus on preventing accidents leads to extra paperwork and slowed productivity.
  3. If the rules are too strict or unclear, it can result in delays and lower quality. Maintaining a balance between safety and efficiency is key to successful shipbuilding.

Mental models for cybersecurity startup founders and why Microsoft cannot easily force nimble early-stage companies out of business

Venture in Security • 275 implied HN points • 08 Feb 24
🕹 Technology Economics
  1. Large corporations like Microsoft may have resources, but they often struggle to innovate due to the innovator's dilemma.
  2. Startups need to focus on understanding market needs and finding the right distribution channels to succeed.
  3. Cybersecurity founders should consider external factors like market conditions and economic trends when planning their startup journeys.

First half of 2023: 7 big health insurers pulled in $683 billion in revenues – largely through taxpayer-supported programs and the pharmacy supply chain

HEALTH CARE un-covered • 619 implied HN points • 06 Sep 23
🏥 Health Politics Economics
  1. In the first half of 2023, seven major health insurance companies made over $683 billion in revenue, mainly from government programs like Medicare and Medicaid. This shows a lot of reliance on taxpayer-supported programs.
  2. Despite these huge profits, Wall Street is not satisfied with the health insurers. Investors believe the companies are not raising premiums enough to keep up with demand for healthcare after pandemic delays.
  3. To please investors, these insurers may increase premiums for customers and limit coverage for medical care. This trend highlights the struggle between corporate profit motives and patient care.

2025 AI & Semiconductor Outlook

Mule’s Musings • 777 implied HN points • 03 Jan 25
🕹 Technology Economics
  1. In 2024, AI technologies surged while many other sectors, especially automotive and smartphones, struggled. Companies like Nvidia saw huge gains, showcasing a divide in performance across the industry.
  2. The semiconductor market is cyclical, meaning trends can shift quickly. This year, companies that did poorly last year, could potentially do well, while top AI names might not see the same explosive growth.
  3. AI advancements are driving up costs and creating new economic challenges for tech companies. There's a bigger focus now on how much it costs to develop and maintain AI, differing from past trends where costs were lower.

The Intensive Margin

David Friedman’s Substack • 260 implied HN points • 29 Jul 25
🚌 Education Economics
  1. Many economics courses focus too much on math, making it less about real economic concepts. This can turn students away who expect more practical learning.
  2. Doing new research on topics that have been studied for a long time is tough because it's hard to say something fresh. It's often easier to use new math tools on old problems.
  3. To make meaningful contributions in economics, it's better to apply existing ideas to new areas rather than just trying to add more math to classic studies.

Top Links 772 Private equity polarizes. South Africa's growth chances dim & the Holy Alliance as "steampunk Terminator".

Chartbook • 329 implied HN points • 17 Jun 25
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Private equity is causing more division among investors. Some big firms are sticking to traditional methods, while others are trying out new strategies with insurance.
  2. South Africa's chance for economic growth is looking weaker. This raises concerns about the future for jobs and investments in the country.
  3. The topic of the 'Holy Alliance' compares it to a 'steampunk Terminator'. This likely reflects complex interactions between various powers in a rapidly changing world.

Numlock News: September 26, 2023 • Books3, Cahow, Rupees

Numlock News • 550 implied HN points • 26 Sep 23
📰 News Economics
  1. India is withdrawing 2,000-rupee banknotes by the end of September, affecting billions of rupees worth of currency.
  2. A dataset called Books3 contains copyrighted works used to train AI systems, leading to lawsuits from writers.
  3. Oil and gas operators have used 1.5 trillion gallons of water since 2011 for well drilling, with concerns about water shortages in fracking regions.

Brain drain is probably just totally wrong

Something to Consider • 59 implied HN points • 26 Jun 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics
  1. Immigration from developing to developed countries might actually benefit the home country, not hurt it. Allowing skilled workers to leave can lead to better investments in education and skills in their home countries.
  2. When people have chances to immigrate, it encourages more individuals to pursue education and develop their skills. This can raise the overall talent level in their country over time.
  3. Countries with more open borders often do better economically than expected. For example, Puerto Rico shows that having immigration opportunities can lead to a higher quality of life for everyone.

Doom and boom?

Off to Lunch • 294 implied HN points • 25 Jan 24
💼 Business Economics
  1. The next UK government will face tough economic choices post-election, with challenges in public finance and investment.
  2. Private sector growth and business breakthroughs are crucial for economic development in the UK.
  3. Birmingham is experiencing challenges due to lack of public transport investment, emphasizing the importance of private sector investment for job creation.

✨ Central planning in the Age of AI: A Quick Q&A with … economist and regulation expert Lynne Kiesling

Faster, Please! • 1005 implied HN points • 29 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics
  1. Central planning has often failed in the past, but some people still find it appealing. It suggests that government control can better manage resources compared to free markets.
  2. Knowledge and data are different. Personal experience and understanding shape our knowledge, while data is just numbers generated from actions, like purchases.
  3. Markets are important because they turn personal knowledge into useful data. Through buying and selling, individual choices help coordinate production and drive innovation.

✨ 📈 The AI Paradox: When will artificial intelligence boost US economic growth?

Faster, Please! • 913 implied HN points • 21 Nov 24
💼 Business Economics
  1. Alan Greenspan raised questions about why technological advances in the 1990s didn't seem to improve productivity statistics. He suggested that it might take time for new technologies to show their full effects.
  2. Greenspan believed that traditional methods of measuring productivity might not capture the real progress happening, especially with services. This mismeasurement could lead to bad decisions on economic policies.
  3. The role of artificial intelligence in boosting productivity is still uncertain. There's hope that AI can help workers produce more, but it's unclear when we will see these benefits reflected in economic growth.

Companies are the new City-States

The Novelleist • 619 implied HN points • 10 Feb 25
💼 Business Economics
  1. Companies are becoming wealthier and more influential than many countries. For example, Apple has a market value that's larger than the GDP of most nations.
  2. Businesses are more flexible and can adapt quickly to changes. They often provide better working conditions and rights, such as parental leave and healthcare, ahead of government regulations.
  3. Companies can address social issues like education and housing, stepping in where government services may fall short. This makes them more effective at creating positive change in society.

🍼 Confronting global population collapse: A Quick Q&A with … demographer Nick Eberstadt

Faster, Please! • 731 implied HN points • 14 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics
  1. Global population is set to decline for the first time in history, mainly because people are choosing to have fewer children. This shift poses big challenges for governments worldwide.
  2. Unlike past population declines, like during the Black Death, today's situation is driven by personal choices rather than disease. We now face a situation of fewer births happening across different cultures and societies.
  3. The reasons for lower birth rates are complex. It's not just about wealth, as many poorer countries are also experiencing declining birth rates. People's desires for children play a crucial role in understanding these trends.

Economic Methodology

David Friedman’s Substack • 242 implied HN points • 01 Aug 25
💼 Business Economics
  1. Economic models don't need to be realistic; what's important is whether they can make accurate predictions about the future. A good model will simplify complex truths while still capturing what really matters.
  2. Being a true economist means being willing to change your views based on evidence, not just sticking to ideology. If someone’s beliefs don’t change even when faced with solid economic arguments, they might just be an economist during work hours.
  3. History shows that both Keynes and Friedman had valuable insights, even if their ideas contradict each other. Each has built on the work of the other, which is how economics progresses, just like in any science.

Resilience Series Part 1: TFF Group

Business Breakdowns • 530 implied HN points • 12 Sep 23
💼 Business Economics
  1. The TFF Group is a resilient company with more than a century of family ownership and vertical integration.
  2. Resilience in business means prioritizing longevity over short-term gains, owning the entire supply chain for longevity, and maintaining profitability during downturns.
  3. Studying companies like TFF Group, which focus on resilience, provides valuable insights into strategies for long-term success.

"Turbocharged"

TSOH Investment Research Service • 530 implied HN points • 25 Sep 23
💼 Business Economics
  1. Walt Disney's Disneyland transformed entertainment with its creative content
  2. Disney Parks & Resorts faced challenges after 9/11 but rebounded with increased free cash flow
  3. CEO Michael Eisner's strategy of reducing capital expenditures led to higher profitability

Meet the Indians Locked Out of the American Dream

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 728 implied HN points • 08 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics
  1. Many immigrants find that the American dream feels unreachable due to strict visa regulations. These rules can make it hard for them to change jobs or start their own businesses.
  2. People like Atal Agarwal feel trapped by their immigration status, limiting their career choices and dreams. They often feel pressure to stick with jobs they may not want.
  3. Returning to their home country can feel like a loss of opportunity for some immigrants, especially when they have invested so much in their education and work in the U.S.

Top Links 762 Historicizing fx reserves. Russia's economy running hot. The fall of a fascist explorer & the "Ruler of My Heart".

Chartbook • 329 implied HN points • 07 Jun 25
💰 Finance Economics
  1. FX reserves are important to understand as they reflect a country's financial health and global standing. Historicizing these reserves helps us see how they've changed over time.
  2. Russia's economy is experiencing significant growth, which has both local and global implications. It's a situation worth monitoring as it may affect global markets.
  3. The discussion around a 'fascist explorer' suggests an examination of controversial figures and their influence on society. It highlights the importance of understanding complex historical narratives.

How to Defend Cash in under 5 Minutes

Altered States of Monetary Consciousness • 637 implied HN points • 31 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Cash is important to protect against digital payment surveillance and control. Transitioning to a fully cashless society can lead to loss of personal freedom and privacy.
  2. Instead of arguing against the convenience of digital payments, it might be better to present a new perspective on why cash is valuable. Analogies can help get the message across more easily.
  3. Educating others about the risks of a cashless society takes practice. Finding quick, relatable ways to share your views can be more effective than trying to challenge established beliefs directly.

⤴⤵ Up Wing/Down Wing #34

Faster, Please! • 639 implied HN points • 08 Feb 25
🕹 Technology Economics
  1. A new tool in ChatGPT can help with deep research by quickly analyzing information and providing organized reports. This makes it easier for people in schools and businesses to get useful insights.
  2. France is benefiting from its strong nuclear energy production, which keeps electricity prices lower compared to Germany. This helps France avoid the high costs associated with gas and coal.
  3. The push for cleaner energy is gaining speed, as countries like France are moving away from expensive fossil fuels. This shift is important for both economic stability and environmental health.

LECTURE NOTES: Lash, Cash, & Cotton in the Imperial-Commercial & Early SteamPower Age

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 299 implied HN points • 21 Jun 25
💾 History Economics
  1. Slavery changed over time, especially after 1500, when it became more about race and capitalism. Before that, people could become slaves due to war or debt, but that changed.
  2. Wealthy societies benefited from slavery, with the middle class enjoying cheap goods thanks to the suffering of enslaved people. This created a system where profit came at a high human cost.
  3. The idea of race was used to justify slavery, making it seem like it was natural for certain groups to be enslaved. The American Civil War, while costly, was part of the struggle to end this brutal system.

Economics Links, 5/16/2025

In My Tribe • 364 implied HN points • 16 May 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics
  1. The China shock might not be as bad as people think; cheap imports could help U.S. manufacturers by lowering their costs and making them more competitive.
  2. In Los Angeles, strict zoning laws have made housing scarce. This has led to high home prices and an increase in homelessness, making it tough for many to afford a place to live.
  3. Republicans are facing challenges with the federal budget, especially with rising entitlement spending. It's hard to fix the deficit by just cutting other spending without reforming entitlements.

Brad Setser Says Smart Things on Exorbitant Privilege Unearned & Earned

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 322 implied HN points • 09 Jun 25
💰 Finance Economics
  1. The dollar's power is not just a natural right; it relies on global faith in American institutions and returns. It's a constant balance that can shift quickly if trust is lost.
  2. Private investors have played a huge role in keeping investment flowing into the U.S., as they seek returns and perceived safety. This pattern has changed from reliance on central banks to a focus on individual investors.
  3. The stability of the dollar could be threatened by political issues within the U.S. If the legal and financial systems weaken, trust may fade and capital could flee quickly.

The family formation theory of everything

Sex and the State • 36 implied HN points • 24 Dec 25
🎭️ Culture Economics
  1. Family formation has fallen mainly among the bottom half because the male-breadwinner norm persists while bottom-half male wages have stagnated, making marriage and children less affordable or attractive.
  2. Job quality for the bottom half has gotten worse—unstable schedules, insecure work, and little to no benefits—which makes starting and sustaining a family much harder even when pay exists.
  3. The decline in marriage, especially among men, drives loneliness and mental/brain harms that increase deaths of despair, social dysfunction, and susceptibility to authoritarian and conspiracy-minded politics.

How Banks Fail

Confronting the Future • 511 implied HN points • 05 Mar 23
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Banks can fail due to bad assets or a run on liabilities, which can often happen together.
  2. Be cautious with asset management, especially in rising interest rate environments and when extending in duration.
  3. Hot deposits can create volatility if depositors suddenly withdraw, impacting a bank's ability to meet obligations.

‘I Don’t Think My Business Can Survive These Tariffs’

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 635 implied HN points • 02 Feb 25
💼 Business Economics
  1. Many small businesses in Canada are struggling due to high tariffs imposed by the U.S., especially under Trump's trade policies. This means they might face serious financial challenges unless these tariffs are lifted.
  2. Darrin Smith, who runs a successful woodworking tools company, is worried that the 25% tariffs will threaten the survival of his business. He relies heavily on sales to the U.S.
  3. The tariffs were created to address issues like illegal immigration and drug smuggling, but the actual impact on businesses could be quite damaging, raising concerns about the broader economy.