Mule’s Musings

Mule's Musings focuses on the intricacies of AI development, semiconductor industry dynamics, and technological evolution. It covers industry analyses, historical parallels, investment prospects, and the strategic maneuvers of leading tech companies, emphasizing on how foundational technologies shape our digital infrastructure and economic landscape.

AI Industry Dynamics Semiconductor Industry Trends Technological Evolution and History Corporate Strategy in Tech Investment and Market Analysis

The hottest Substack posts of Mule’s Musings

And their main takeaways

Earnings: Optics(COHR, FN, LITE), Soitec, IFX, SWKS, ONTO, ENTG

173 implied HN points • 12 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Earnings Markets Analysis Reports
  1. The earnings reports for companies in the optics sector, such as COHR and FN, are being discussed. This means their financial performance is being analyzed.
  2. Soitec, IFX, SWKS, ONTO, and ENTG are also mentioned, indicating they are part of the earnings updates. These companies are likely in the tech or semiconductor industry.
  3. This information is geared towards paid subscribers, suggesting a focus on a niche audience interested in detailed financial insights.

DeepSeek: Is this Jevon's Cope?

635 implied HN points • 29 Jan 25
🕹 Technology AI Infrastructure Market Trends Economic Theory
  1. Price changes can greatly influence how people feel about markets, leading to strong swings in sentiment. This idea is evident in the ongoing debates around AI infrastructure spending.
  2. The Jevons Paradox suggests that as technology makes things cheaper, demand often increases instead of decreases. This means that even with better technology, we may use more resources rather than less.
  3. There is a real risk that supply can exceed demand in the short term, impacting the market negatively. While the long-term picture may be optimistic, the immediate situation can be very different.

Vibe Check: MSFT & META Earnings: LRCX, MXL, WOLF, ASML, CLS, STM, ALGM, INTC

366 implied HN points • 03 Feb 25
💰 Finance Earnings Reports Investment Trends Stock Analysis Tech industry
  1. Microsoft is seeing strong growth in its AI revenue, but its overall business is growing slowly. They have invested heavily in AI and plan to keep expanding their data center capacities.
  2. Meta is optimistic about the future of AI and has extended the lifespan of its servers. They expect to make significant advancements in AI coding and problem-solving capabilities in 2025.
  3. Both companies are focusing their spending on infrastructure, with Meta doubling down on AI and core business needs. They believe that investing in this area will give them a competitive edge.

Vibe Check: Google and Amazon. Earnings: IoT(SMTC, NOD, SLAB,PI), RMBS, AMD

141 implied HN points • 09 Feb 25
💼 Business Earnings Tech IOT Finance Market Trends
  1. Google and Amazon are being assessed for their performance and outlook. People are paying attention to how these companies are doing.
  2. The earnings report includes various companies related to the Internet of Things like SMTC and AMD. These companies are important to keep an eye on for future trends.
  3. This is the first part of a weekly summary about company earnings. Expect to see more updates on financial performances soon.

Capital Cycles and AI

629 implied HN points • 13 Jan 25
💼 Business Capital Markets Investment strategy Technological Innovation Market Trends
  1. Everything goes in cycles, including money. When investors see high returns, they jump in, but eventually, too much investment leads to lower returns.
  2. The current boom in AI feels different because it lacks a strong feedback loop that typically drives rapid investment increases. We're not yet seeing the big jumps in value that signal a bubble.
  3. Power and data centers are crucial for AI's growth, but they have slow response times. This means there might be overbuilding, which could lead to shortages and demand outstripping supply in the future.
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TSM - It's Good to Be the King: 1 Trillion Incoming

366 implied HN points • 21 Jan 25
💼 Business Finance Investments Market Trends Earnings Reports Technology
  1. TSMC has reported impressive growth, especially with a 35% increase in capital expenditures. This shows they are investing heavily in their future.
  2. The demand for AI-related products is driving TSMC's revenue, with expectations for AI revenue to double in 2025. This is a big part of their expected growth moving forward.
  3. As competitors struggle, TSMC is gaining market share and experiencing growing profits. They are on track to potentially become a trillion-dollar company.

2025 AI & Semiconductor Outlook

777 implied HN points • 03 Jan 25
🕹 Technology AI Semiconductors Economics Stocks Industry Trends
  1. In 2024, AI technologies surged while many other sectors, especially automotive and smartphones, struggled. Companies like Nvidia saw huge gains, showcasing a divide in performance across the industry.
  2. The semiconductor market is cyclical, meaning trends can shift quickly. This year, companies that did poorly last year, could potentially do well, while top AI names might not see the same explosive growth.
  3. AI advancements are driving up costs and creating new economic challenges for tech companies. There's a bigger focus now on how much it costs to develop and maintain AI, differing from past trends where costs were lower.

The Death of Intel: When Boards Fail

969 implied HN points • 05 Dec 24
💼 Business Corporate Governance Management Finance Investments
  1. The Intel board is seen as unqualified, with many members lacking the necessary semiconductor experience. This has likely contributed to the company's ongoing struggles.
  2. Pat Gelsinger, the former CEO, was fired despite being technically skilled and wanting to help the company. His optimistic approach conflicted with the board's short-term focus.
  3. The board's focus on maximizing shareholder value might lead to harmful decisions like breaking up the company, which could hurt its long-term prospects and impact the industry and U.S. competitiveness.

Scaling Laws Meet Economics, but Adoption is still Accelerating

333 implied HN points • 19 Dec 24
🕹 Technology AI Economics Modeling Hardware Innovation
  1. Economics are very important when it comes to scaling tech, and while costs are rising, tools like ChatGPT are still becoming more popular. Understanding the balance of cost and usage is crucial.
  2. Scaling laws are changing, and relying solely on large pre-trained models may not be the best strategy anymore. Businesses might need to explore smaller models or alternative methods to improve efficiency and reduce costs.
  3. Adoption of AI technologies is still growing rapidly, which shows that despite challenges, many people are eager to use and integrate these tools into their lives.

NVIDIA: Waiting on Blackwell, and the Networking Question

372 implied HN points • 21 Nov 24
🕹 Technology Semiconductors AI Networking Market Analysis
  1. Nvidia's recent earnings report showed lighter-than-expected guidance, meaning some investors were disappointed but it also indicates the company is stabilizing as it grows larger.
  2. The focus is now on Nvidia's new product, Blackwell, which is expected to greatly impact revenue, and there's anticipation about how successful it will be as it ramps up.
  3. Networking sales have surprisingly dropped as a percentage of revenue, even though overall networking demand is still strong, raising questions about the reasons behind this change.

Earnings: TSMC, ASML, AEHR, Telecom

417 implied HN points • 20 Oct 24
💼 Business Finance Investing Market Analysis Technology Economy
  1. ASML's recent earnings revealed a drop in orders and concerns about future growth, particularly due to challenges in their Chinese market and demand from major clients like Samsung and Intel.
  2. TSMC reported strong earnings with high demand for AI-related products and plans for significant capital investment, showing confidence in their growth despite market fears.
  3. The semiconductor industry is facing a shift, with lithography spending likely slowing down, but both ASML and TSMC are positioned to adapt to these changes for future growth.

The Rise of Amazon's Trainium 2

288 implied HN points • 04 Nov 24
🕹 Technology Semiconductors AI Infrastructure Cloud Computing
  1. Amazon is significantly increasing its investments in technology infrastructure, particularly for AI services, showing a strong commitment to compete in the generative AI space.
  2. The success of Amazon's new custom silicon, Trainium 2, could be larger than expected as demand from AI applications grows rapidly.
  3. Trainium 2 represents Amazon's serious entry into the market for training AI models, positioning it as a competitor against established players like Nvidia.

Happy Thanksgiving Semicap & Semiconductors

141 implied HN points • 29 Nov 24
💼 Business Economics Finance Markets Investment Technology
  1. Export controls in the semiconductor industry can create good buying opportunities. It's a chance for investors to think strategically.
  2. The semiconductor market is influenced by various factors, and understanding these can help in making informed decisions.
  3. Staying updated on industry news is essential for anyone interested in semiconductors, especially during significant events like Thanksgiving.

Idea in Smartphones

141 implied HN points • 22 Oct 24
🕹 Technology Smartphones Innovation Gadgets Trends User Experience
  1. Smartphones are evolving, and it might be time to consider what that means for us. We need to think about how these changes affect our daily lives.
  2. Many features in smartphones are becoming more advanced, which can change how we communicate and connect with others. It's worth paying attention to these developments.
  3. With the rapid growth of smartphone technology, we should reflect on our usage and whether it aligns with our values and needs. It's important to think critically about our relationship with these devices.

Earnings: ON, AMKR, RMBS, UCTT, AMD, ASMI, KLAC, MPWR, ALGM, STM, INTC

83 implied HN points • 04 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing Earnings Markets Economic Trends Stocks
  1. Several companies, including AMD and INTC, have recently released their earnings reports. This is important for investors to understand how these companies are performing.
  2. The list of companies mentioned are all key players in the tech and semiconductor industries. Keeping an eye on their earnings can provide insight into market trends.
  3. This information is mainly aimed at subscribers, indicating it may include in-depth analysis or additional insights for those interested in stock performance.

AI Industry Structure and Business Model: What Inning is It?

610 implied HN points • 16 Jan 24
🕹 Technology Business Model Competitive Analysis
  1. AI industry adoption is still in its early stages, similar to the early days of internet adoption.
  2. Estimating the penetration rate of paying users for AI models like ChatGPT and LLM services is important for understanding the industry.
  3. The future business model of the AI industry is evolving, with a shifting landscape between semiconductor companies like Nvidia, hyperscalers, and AI model service providers.

WTF is going on at SuperMicro? (SMCI)

449 implied HN points • 16 Feb 24
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Market Analysis Options
  1. An ongoing gamma squeeze at SuperMicro has led to a significant buying pressure, possibly due to high volumes of options expiring.
  2. The significant demand for shares due to in-the-money calls can lead to billions of dollars worth of shares needing to be accounted for.
  3. After the gamma squeeze peaks, there may be a period of share buying, but ultimately, there are expectations for SuperMicro's stock to stabilize and return to normal.

Why HBM is the Hottest Thing in Memory

411 implied HN points • 03 Mar 24
🕹 Technology Semiconductors Memory Industry Analysis Investing
  1. Investing in semiconductors involves identifying secular trends and market dislocations for potential opportunities.
  2. HBM technology is driving a significant change in the memory industry, with SK Hynix being highlighted as a key player to watch for.
  3. Suppliers in the memory market are strategically shifting focus and investments towards HBM, anticipating a boost in market demand and profitability in the coming years.

Semiconductor Outlook 2024: AI's Adolescence

443 implied HN points • 02 Jan 24
🕹 Technology Semiconductor AI Stock Market Economy
  1. Semiconductor market experienced a downturn in 2023 but is showing signs of recovery in 2024, especially in AI-related segments
  2. AI is emerging as a significant market segment in the semiconductor industry and is expected to continue growing in 2024
  3. Memory market, particularly High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), is also expected to see growth and become a major category in 2024

Lessons from History: The Rise and Fall of the Telecom Bubble

558 implied HN points • 16 Oct 23
💼 Business Technology Finance History Economy Telecom
  1. The Telecom bubble had compounding levels of leverage throughout the value chain, which is a defining difference from today's AI companies.
  2. The barrier to entry in the Telecom industry seemed lower than in the AI industry, allowing for more new entrants.
  3. Supply is reactive to demand, and the telecom bubble showed that supply can quickly outstrip demand, leading to a glut.

Finding the Sweet Spot: Nvidia's Goldilocks Quarter

295 implied HN points • 22 Feb 24
💼 Business Technology Finance Earnings Supply Chain Stock Market
  1. Nvidia's quarterly results exceeded expectations, with significant revenue growth in the Datacenter segment despite challenges like China's revenue dropping to almost zero.
  2. Nvidia achieved its highest gross margin ever, despite expectations that it would decrease in the future, hinting at potential pricing strategies for new products like B100.
  3. Nvidia is facing supply constraints but anticipates strong demand for upcoming products like B100, suggesting promising revenue growth opportunities and potential bottlenecks in the networking industry.

Marvell Industry Analyst Day

256 implied HN points • 17 Dec 23
💼 Business Technology Finance AI Semiconductors Networking
  1. Marvell's Industry Analyst Day focused on AI and highlighted strong revenue growth expectations for the company related to AI technologies.
  2. Marvell expects significant revenue from AI in 2024, with over two billion dollars projected, driven by AI demand and server attach rates.
  3. Marvell's strategy involves leveraging networking, custom silicon, and pluggable transceivers to position themselves as a key player in the AI semiconductor market.

ARM IPO Breakdown

346 implied HN points • 12 Sep 23
💼 Business Tech industry Finance Valuation Competitive Analysis
  1. ARM is an important company in the IP industry, famous for its power efficiency and reduced instruction set.
  2. ARM's history includes significant milestones like going public in 1997 and being acquired by Softbank in 2016.
  3. The ARM IPO is highly anticipated, with the company aiming to list between 50-55 billion, showcasing its key role in the industry.

Nvidia: Better than Dreamed

295 implied HN points • 24 Aug 23
💰 Finance Stock Market Earnings Report Technology Industry Market Analysis
  1. Nvidia exceeded expectations with its Q2 earnings, surpassing revenue and EPS estimates.
  2. There is uncertainty about the sustainability of Nvidia's growth due to potential overordering and demand shifts.
  3. Nvidia's competitive advantage lies in its architecture, installed base, reach, and rapid engineering, positioning them as a dominant force in the tech ecosystem.

The Coming Wave of AI, and How Nvidia Dominants

366 implied HN points • 30 May 23
🕹 Technology AI Semiconductors Inference Training Competition
  1. Large Language Models (LLMs) are powering AI applications and depend on factors like model size, training data, and computing power.
  2. Semiconductors benefit from the demand for LLMs due to their computing power requirements for training and inference, creating opportunities for companies like Nvidia.
  3. Nvidia dominates in the AI hardware market with a three-headed hydra strategy focusing on networking and systems, accelerator hardware, and software solutions.

Taiwan AI Conference Slides, Nvidia Fraud Hoax, Huawei, ARM IPO, and Intel

263 implied HN points • 06 Sep 23
🕹 Technology AI Semiconductors Crypto Internet Conspiracy Theories
  1. The Taiwan AI conference had great slides and discussions on AI content and technology.
  2. There is a debunking of the 'Nvidia is a fraud' narrative, explaining reasons for recent actions by Nvidia.
  3. The complexity of internet-scale events can lead to conspiracy theories as people try to make sense of things beyond their understanding.

AI Foundations Part 1: Transformers, Pre-Training and Fine-Tuning, and Scaling

378 implied HN points • 11 Apr 23
🕹 Technology AI Machine Learning Fine-tuning
  1. The Transformer model revolutionized Large Language Models (LLMs) with its parallel and scalable architecture.
  2. Pre-training and fine-tuning, as seen in GPT-1 and BERT, significantly improved model performance for various tasks.
  3. Bigger models, more data, and computing power have shown to lead to better performance in LLMs, but the relationship between model size, training tokens, and performance is more complex than initially thought.

VLSI Japan: It’s Better on the Backside

263 implied HN points • 15 Jun 23
🕹 Technology Semiconductors Manufacturing Innovation Competition Design
  1. VLSI Japan discussed the revolutionary Backside Power Delivery (BSPDN) technology and its importance in semiconductor design.
  2. BSPDN addresses the IR droop problem in semiconductor design, offering power and performance benefits like decreased IR droop and increased core performance.
  3. Intel's adoption of PowerVia technology positions them ahead of competitors like TSMC, providing potential competitive advantages in process efficiency and cost.