The hottest Economics Substack posts right now

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The Curse of Understanding Finance

We're Gonna Get Those Bastards • 11 implied HN points • 22 May 25
💰 Finance Economics
  1. The bond market reacts strongly to government budget issues, which can lead to serious financial problems. If interest rates rise too high, it could lead to government insolvency and hyperinflation.
  2. Many people don't understand finance and ignore warnings about spending and deficits. This lack of knowledge can make it hard for them to see how these issues affect their daily lives.
  3. Understanding finance is important for protecting oneself during economic troubles. Those who do understand can take proactive steps while others may remain unaware of the risks.

America's Growth Addiction

From the New World • 26 implied HN points • 29 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics
  1. America is divided between two cultures: the Paper Belt, focused on bureaucracy and regulation, and the Silicon Road, driven by innovation and growth.
  2. Both these cultures have a strong desire for growth, but they express it differently. The Paper Belt seeks to expand influence through politics, while the Silicon Road strives for commercial expansion and innovation.
  3. Normal people's lives are caught in the middle of these two powerful systems, affecting their everyday experiences and opportunities.

Seven reasons why the world should say No to Sam Altman

Marcus on AI • 61 HN points • 10 Feb 24
🕹 Technology Economics
  1. Investing $7 trillion in AI infrastructure would have significant energy and climate implications, possibly leading to heavy environmental costs.
  2. $7 trillion for AI exceeds the economic resources allocated to critical areas like education or ending world hunger, highlighting potential opportunity costs.
  3. Such a massive financial risk of a $7 trillion project could have severe consequences on the world economy, similar to the impact of the 2007-2008 financial crisis.

Dallas vs. Austin

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 21 implied HN points • 24 Jan 25
💼 Business Economics
  1. Rents are going down in both Dallas and Austin, but Austin is seeing a bigger drop. This indicates a shift in the housing market.
  2. There's a clear trend happening in real estate that can be tracked through data, which helps understand rental prices and construction activity.
  3. It's important to keep an eye on housing supply and demand, as they play a key role in rental prices across major Texas cities.
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The US Surrenders!

C.O.P. Central Organizing Principle. • 18 implied HN points • 13 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics
  1. Trump has lost a lot of power in his dealings with Russia, making him appear weak. This puts Russia in control of peace talks and future negotiations.
  2. The U.S. economy is struggling, similar to how Rome fell in the past. There are calls to cut military spending and close bases abroad to improve the situation.
  3. Trump is in a difficult position, being blamed for economic problems and conflicts. Both Democrats and Republicans seem to want him to take the fall for these issues.

The Tale of Two Chinas

The Last Bear Standing • 60 implied HN points • 26 Jan 24
💰 Finance Economics
  1. China's economic growth was heavily reliant on property development and infrastructure, funded by the massive expansion of credit.
  2. The shift in Chinese government policy towards reforming the property sector and debt markets led to a significant impact on the economy.
  3. The Chinese financial system faced the risk of a crisis due to the extensive exposure to property debt and potential credit losses.

December 2024 Erdmann Housing Tracker

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 21 implied HN points • 14 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Inflation numbers are delayed because the Consumer Price Index (CPI) isn't updated yet. So, we'll have to wait a bit longer for the latest inflation details.
  2. Homebuilders, like KB Homes, continue to report strong earnings despite high mortgage rates. It seems that mortgage rates don't impact homebuilders as much as expected.
  3. There's an ongoing pattern where people keep thinking mortgage rates will disrupt the housing market, but this hasn't really happened lately. It's like a financial mystery that keeps repeating.

AI+You

Subsack • 4 implied HN points • 03 Oct 25
🕹 Technology Economics
  1. AI is not rapidly improving itself on its own. Most advancements come from human decisions, so there's no immediate threat from an out-of-control AI.
  2. Jobs are changing, but most people won't lose theirs right away. Some industries will feel pressure, while others like healthcare may see more collaboration with AI technology.
  3. There's a lot of excitement about AI, especially for new businesses. It's easier for entrepreneurs to create products using AI tools, and this could lead to significant innovations.

A Watched Market Crash Pot Never Boils

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 26 implied HN points • 18 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Focusing too much on a potential market crash can make it less likely to happen. Sometimes, it's better to step back and not overthink things.
  2. Jerome Powell's comments suggest that the Fed won't rush to cut interest rates anytime soon, even if the economy shows some strength. This means we should pay attention to long-term trends.
  3. The stock market can be influenced by expectations, not just current conditions. People hope for lower rates, but that hope doesn't always match reality.

WEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-12-11 We

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 23 implied HN points • 11 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics
  1. Quasars are super bright and energetic objects in space, powered by black holes consuming material. They help astronomers understand our universe better.
  2. Current economic policies, especially under recent U.S. leadership, are shaping the economy in complex ways, with stock market reactions being particularly important.
  3. Using AI can be helpful, but it's important to know when to rely on it. It can aid in tasks we could do ourselves but shouldn't replace deep learning and understanding.

Fund Raiser! Please buy a subscription.

C.O.P. Central Organizing Principle. • 18 implied HN points • 05 Feb 25
💼 Business Economics
  1. Money is tight, and it's important to be mindful of our spending. Choosing the cheapest options can help during tough financial times.
  2. Supporting creators and writers through subscriptions can ensure they continue providing content. Your support can make a big difference!
  3. Weather can impact activities like busking, so it's okay to take a break when conditions aren't favorable. Staying safe is a priority.

Investing Update: New Leadership In Tech?

Spilled Coffee • 24 implied HN points • 07 Dec 24
💰 Finance Economics
  1. The S&P 500 is performing really well, hitting new record highs often this year. Investors are likely feeling good about the market's strong performance.
  2. The bull market has lasted for 26 months and has brought a significant return, but it’s still shy of the average return from past bull markets. This makes some investors optimistic about future growth.
  3. There has been a massive influx of money into U.S. stocks recently, showing that many people are eager to invest despite market uncertainties. This could indicate overall confidence in the market.

In Defense of the Rich

We're Gonna Get Those Bastards • 8 implied HN points • 28 Jun 25
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Rich people often help others in times of need, like when a wealthy community came together to support a firefighter's sick child. This shows that they can be caring and generous.
  2. The wealthy contribute significantly to the economy and taxes, often funding essential services and cultural institutions. They create jobs and help maintain public resources.
  3. Even though some rich individuals might be perceived as out of touch, they face their own unique challenges and stresses, making their lives not as easy as they might seem.

Clouded Judgement 7.11.25 - Market Musings

Clouded Judgement • 8 implied HN points • 11 Jul 25
💰 Finance Economics
  1. The stock market is hitting all-time highs while dealing with various global challenges. Despite worries, it's surprising how strong the performance has been so far this year.
  2. Earnings reports are approaching, and they could keep the market rising if companies perform well. Positive news about AI and productivity might help boost investor confidence.
  3. Economic factors like inflation and job market stability are being watched closely. If inflation stays calm and earnings are good, the market might continue to thrive.

The Uterine Lottery

Polymathic Being • 66 implied HN points • 03 Dec 23
📖 Philosophy Economics
  1. Our existence is not entirely random; it is influenced by mate selection, education, health, and life decisions passed down through generations.
  2. Economic and geopolitical factors contribute to inequality, with the Pareto Principle indicating that a small percentage holds a majority of wealth and success.
  3. Sociological structures, traditions, and decisions made by our ancestors play a significant role in shaping who we are today.

Voyager Digital bites the dust[Finance Fridays]

Technology Made Simple • 39 implied HN points • 08 Jul 22
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Be cautious of investment projects offering exceptionally high returns as they may not be sustainable in the long run.
  2. Avoid heavily leveraged investments and be wary of hype in financial markets to minimize risks.
  3. Understand the fundamentals of any industry you are investing in to make informed decisions and mitigate potential losses.

NMHC on Apartments: "Looser market conditions for the tenth consecutive quarter"

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 22 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economics
  1. The apartment market has been getting looser for ten quarters in a row. This means there are more vacancies and less competition for renters.
  2. Signs show that rents might drop as apartment vacancies increase. If more places are empty, landlords may lower prices to attract renters.
  3. There is less activity in buying and selling apartments, and it's also harder to get financing. This could make it tough for investors in the real estate market.

Bitcoin’s Next 10 Years & Victor Mentality

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 25 implied HN points • 14 Nov 24
🔮 Crypto Economics
  1. Bitcoin has a long-term potential that many investors believe in. Holding onto it for over a decade has shown significant promise.
  2. The approach to investing in Bitcoin involves buying, mining, and even bidding in auctions to acquire coins.
  3. New strategies in finance can impact how Bitcoin is traded and valued, making it crucial to stay informed about market changes.

Inflation is Over

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 105 implied HN points • 16 Mar 23
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Inflation may have ended, as data shows a decline in prices over the past months.
  2. Removing the shelter component from inflation measurements may lead to a more accurate CPI.
  3. Addressing the housing supply issue could resolve misconceptions around monetary policy and inflation.

On Social Media, Demand Slopes Upwards

Never Met a Science • 66 implied HN points • 15 Nov 23
🕹 Technology Economics
  1. In the attention economy of social media, demand can increase as supply increases, leading to an unsustainable positive feedback loop.
  2. The attention economy operates differently from traditional market economies, with attention being a key commodity rather than money.
  3. Consumers, producers, and algorithms play unique roles in driving the positive feedback loop of the attention economy, which can have far-reaching implications.

The Market's Mirror, Exhibit "A"

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 16 implied HN points • 25 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economics
  1. The stock market might be slowing down soon, which is a concern for investors. It's important to pay attention to popular stocks for signs of this change.
  2. There's a belief that we could be on the brink of a significant market crash that could confuse many investors. Being aware of market behaviors can help prepare for what's next.
  3. Frustration with everyday items could be a sign of larger issues, showing that people are feeling the stress of the current economic situation. This reflects broader feelings about the market right now.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2025

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 14 Jan 25
💼 Business Economics
  1. New home listings increased slightly in December compared to the previous year, but they are still much lower than before the pandemic.
  2. Lower mortgage rates during the previous months had encouraged some homeowners to sell, but higher rates now are limiting new sellers this winter.
  3. December and January are usually the slowest months for new home listings, but the year-over-year increase shows some movement in the market.

The Wholesale Rape Of Canada, by the US Dollar.

C.O.P. Central Organizing Principle. • 18 implied HN points • 19 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Canada has a lot of valuable resources and talent, but many Canadians are struggling with homelessness. This is partly because their economy is being affected by how the US operates.
  2. The Canadian dollar is tied too closely to the US dollar, making it harder for Canada to sell its goods at fair prices. This creates issues for Canadian businesses and workers.
  3. Many Canadians are frustrated with American influence and feel it's time to focus more on their own economy and products. This could lead to significant changes in how Canada interacts with American businesses.

What If We Run Inflation Hot: Harris Kupperman

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 20 implied HN points • 02 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Inflation may rise faster than expected, which could surprise many investors. People are not prepared for high growth in the economy right now.
  2. The recent economic changes have benefited many workers and industries that were struggling for a long time. This includes wage increases in sectors that needed them.
  3. Questions are being raised about whether efforts to control inflation are really aimed at the overall economy or at a specific group of people in the rural areas.

The Market As A Superintelligence + 3 Reasons To Believe AGI Is Possible

The Future of Life • 19 implied HN points • 05 Jun 23
🕹 Technology Economics
  1. The market acts like a superintelligence by combining the knowledge and skills of all participants. This creates a system that is more efficient than what any single person or organization could achieve.
  2. There are signs that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) could be possible, such as the ability to recreate simple behaviors in artificial neural networks. This suggests we could eventually model more complex human behaviors as well.
  3. AI systems already show capabilities similar to human thinking in language and problem-solving. This means we might not need special biological processes to achieve human-like intelligence.

#167 – Turn Every Page

Below the Line from Kevin LaBuz • 9 implied HN points • 01 Jun 25
💼 Business Economics
  1. Always be ready to seize opportunities. As Warren Buffett says, 'turn every page' means you should work hard and be thorough, even when the door seems closed.
  2. Patience is key in investing. Instead of rushing to invest, wait for the right opportunity and be prepared to act quickly when it comes.
  3. Surround yourself with positive, trustworthy people. The people you work with can influence your habits and outcomes, so choose wisely.

Tech-Financial-VC Bubbles

Turnaround • 158 implied HN points • 04 Apr 20
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Financial bubbles follow a pattern of phases - starting with intense innovation funding, moving into financial speculation, and finally reaching maturity before a possible burst.
  2. Technology and financial bubbles can be compared to the Greek myth of Sisyphus, where we continually build and push bubbles until they burst, repeating the cycle.
  3. The current tech bubble seems concentrated within private and venture capital, driven by factors like low interest rates, leading to bigger deal sizes and a shift from IPOs to unicorn aspirations.

The Bank of Starbucks

Of All Trades • 9 implied HN points • 27 May 25
💼 Business Economics
  1. Starbucks makes a lot of money, earning about $36 billion in revenue in 2024. This shows that their business is not just about coffee, but also a serious finance player.
  2. By allowing customers to load money onto their app for purchases, Starbucks essentially acts like a bank. They hold this money without needing to give customers cash back, making it a profitable system for them.
  3. Starbucks holds more customer deposits than about 80% of U.S. banks, even though it's primarily a coffee company. This highlights how big their banking-like system has become in the consumer market.

The Bear is Back!

The Last Bear Standing • 89 implied HN points • 21 Apr 23
💰 Finance Economics
  1. The Last Bear Standing has been renewed for Season Two, with more insightful content on finance and economics.
  2. Season One of The Last Bear Standing made accurate predictions, demonstrating the writer's expertise in financial analysis.
  3. For Season Two, access will require a paid subscription priced at $200 annually or $20 per month.

ON EXPOSURE 1/3 - Being seen

On Looking • 39 implied HN points • 11 Jul 22
🎭️ Culture Economics
  1. Exposure in the attention economy can lead to a one-way mirror effect where the conditions and consequences of visibility are often opaque, emphasizing the need to understand the systemic failures at play.
  2. In the media-rich society we live in, visibility has transformed into a form of capital, with the potential to be converted into economic value under certain conditions, notably through the conversion of visibility into other forms of capital like social or cultural capital.
  3. While exposure is always presented as valuable, especially quantitatively, its true worth lies in qualitative aspects such as relevance, credit, and audience quality, showcasing the need for a nuanced understanding of visibility and exposure in the creative industry.

Innovative externality inclusion

Model Thinking • 19 implied HN points • 31 Dec 22
💼 Business Economics
  1. Regulation impacts economies with benefits like cleaner water but also drawbacks like slower innovation, affecting global progress.
  2. Small differences in economic growth rates have significant welfare implications, drastically altering living standards over time.
  3. The value of regulation changes when considering the impact on foreign welfare, potentially leading to a reevaluation of optimal levels.

GDP is a good measure. Don't mess with it for political reasons.

Economic Forces • 14 implied HN points • 03 Mar 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics
  1. GDP measures the total value of goods and services produced in a country, including government activities. It’s not just about private sector spending.
  2. Removing government spending from GDP calculations would create an incomplete picture of the economy and is unnecessary since we already have ways to measure private sector performance separately.
  3. Changing how we measure economic data for political reasons can harm the integrity of statistical agencies and lead to poor decision-making in the economy.

Everything you want to know about subscriptions

Logos • 19 implied HN points • 24 May 23
💼 Business Economics
  1. There are different types of subscription models, like 'pay to access' or 'pay to save.' Each type has different strategies for companies.
  2. Companies should know their goal for subscriptions — either to make money directly or encourage customers to spend more on other products.
  3. Offering upfront annual payments may not be the best idea. Many users who pay upfront are less likely to cancel anyway, so the discount might not be worth it.