The hottest Economics Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Business Topics

Question #8 for 2025: How much will Residential investment change in 2025? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2025?

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 26 Dec 24
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Residential investment is likely to see a small increase in 2024, which is a positive shift after two years of decline.
  2. Housing starts for single-family homes are expected to remain stable, while multi-family starts may drop a bit more in 2025.
  3. New home sales are projected to rise by about 5% in 2025, indicating a gradual recovery in the housing market.

₿ITCOIN NGMI

sonsofcrypto • 19 implied HN points • 13 Feb 23
🔮 Crypto Economics
  1. Bitcoin consists of software, economics, and community elements.
  2. Bitcoin's software has seen limited progress in user-friendliness and accessibility.
  3. The Bitcoin community has shifted towards a more cult-like atmosphere, straying from its original principles.

Saturday Curiosity Links

Grist Potentia • 19 implied HN points • 02 Jul 23
💰 Finance Economics
  1. On July 1, 1941, Myron Scholes, the Canadian-American financial economist, was born in Ontario.
  2. Myron Scholes began his journey into Economics early through his Uncles' businesses and investments in the stock market.
  3. Myron Scholes is known for developing the Black-Scholes model with Fischer Black.

Taking a Peep at America's Factory Boom

Exponential Industry • 19 implied HN points • 09 Apr 23
💼 Business Economics
  1. On-demand manufacturing platforms and digital twins are hot trends as supply chain shortages continue.
  2. Companies in the USA and Japan are reshoring production, leading to a surge in construction spending for manufacturing facilities.
  3. Mexico's auto parts industry is adapting for the EV era by focusing on new materials and technologies.

How anomalies drove my social science research

America in Crisis • 19 implied HN points • 12 Aug 23
🚌 Education Economics
  1. Anomalies in stock market cycles and economic growth patterns can challenge existing models and lead to new insights.
  2. Exploring how cultural evolution impacts business practices and economic policies can provide a framework for understanding shifts in stock market valuations and economic growth.
  3. Government economic policies influenced by political cultural evolution play a key role in shaping business cultures and impacting economic trends.
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Solow Paradox

Brain Lenses • 19 implied HN points • 28 Feb 23
🕹 Technology Economics
  1. Economic growth relies heavily on technological progress.
  2. Solow's Paradox questions the impact of technology on productivity.
  3. An increase in productivity in certain industries can lead to slowdowns in others.

Rethinking Economics in the Digital Age

The Digital Anthropologist • 19 implied HN points • 21 Aug 23
🚌 Education Economics
  1. Economics is evolving back to its philosophical roots, which is beneficial for economists and society.
  2. Data, climate change, and shifting geopolitics are driving changes in economics in the digital age.
  3. Economics is becoming more intertwined with sociology and anthropology, leading to improved insights and potential positive evolution of the field.

YIMBies Overpromise

Wooly's Post Repository • 19 implied HN points • 23 Jul 23
💼 Business Economics
  1. The data on housing prices and construction can be confusing and counterintuitive, leading to difficulties in drawing clear conclusions.
  2. YIMBY goals require a significant amount of construction to impact housing prices, but achieving such high construction rates can be challenging.
  3. Confidence in real estate research should be lowered due to the complexity and potential errors in the data, making it important to approach conclusions with caution.

Brief thoughts on advertising

Logos • 19 implied HN points • 29 Aug 23
💼 Business Economics
  1. Advertising helps people find products they didn't know they needed. For example, a drain declogger can come to mind when you see an ad.
  2. Ads send messages about brands. Brands like Nike signal excellence, and people may buy their products to show they value that quality.
  3. People often buy products to tell themselves a story about who they are or who they want to be. Ads can inspire us to reach for something we aspire to, like wearing running gear to start exercising.

Mommy, daddy, is ChatGPT going to automate your jobs? | Roundup #18

Workonomics • 19 implied HN points • 28 Mar 23
💼 Business Economics
  1. A study found that higher-wage jobs have a higher exposure to automation than lower-wage jobs.
  2. A tight labor market has helped reduce inequality by increasing wages for low-wage workers more than high-wage workers.
  3. Different states have proposed various gig economy regulations, such as requiring gig platforms to show drivers how much they were paid and provide benefits like minimum wage and sick time.

Is Colorado The Most Repair-Friendly State in the US? Recent Victories Say “Yes.”

Fight to Repair • 19 implied HN points • 14 Apr 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics
  1. Colorado is making significant strides in becoming the most repair-friendly state in the US, passing laws supporting agricultural and power-wheelchair repair, setting an example for others to follow.
  2. Massachusetts has historically been a leader in progressive policies, including same-sex marriage legalization and universal healthcare, and has been at the forefront of the right to repair movement, influencing national policies.
  3. The Federal Trade Commission is actively supporting the right to repair movement, testifying in states like California, highlighting the importance of consumer access to repair information and parts.

A Skeptic's Guide to Bitcoin

The Last Bear Standing • 76 implied HN points • 12 Jan 24
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Fiat currencies can be debased through opaque tactics, benefiting some while hurting others.
  2. Bitcoin has proven itself as a means for global value transfer and storage since its inception in 2009.
  3. As Bitcoin demonstrates its use case, arguments against its legitimacy weaken, leading to broader acceptance.

Regime is Collapsing

Malt Liquidity • 31 implied HN points • 27 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Market regimes change, and recognizing this can help avoid losses. Just like in a movie, understanding what's real can prevent you from getting stuck in a bad situation.
  2. Recent changes in government policies and market behavior mean it's time to rethink traditional investing strategies. You should consider how different sectors will perform under new rules.
  3. Inflation impacts wealth distribution, and predicting its effects is crucial. Adjusting investment strategies to navigate inflation and potential downturns is important for healthier future markets.

Lawler: Revisions Almost Eliminate Household/Establishment Survey Employment Growth Gap

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 07 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economics
  1. The Household Survey and Establishment Survey both track employment, but there was a significant gap in their growth estimates over the years. Recent updates have nearly closed this gap.
  2. New population estimates showed that previous estimates of employment growth were too low, mainly due to underestimating international migration. This has led to a big revision upward in the Household Survey employment numbers.
  3. Now, both surveys show similar employment growth trends, which suggests that the labor market may not be as weak as previously thought.

“Dey Took Err Jerbs”: Immigration and the Lump of Labor Fallacy

Center for the Study of Partisanship and Ideology • 24 implied HN points • 23 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics
  1. The idea that there's only a fixed number of jobs is a myth. More workers, especially immigrants, can actually create new jobs and grow the economy.
  2. High-skilled immigrants contribute significantly to innovation and entrepreneurship. Many big companies in the U.S. were started by immigrants or their children.
  3. Allowing more immigrants into the workforce benefits everyone. It can lead to economic growth and better job opportunities for all, rather than taking jobs away from Americans.

There’s actually a good reason work is so family unfriendly

Sex and the State • 23 implied HN points • 27 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics
  1. Work culture is not very friendly to families, which affects fertility rates. It often targets women as if they are the only ones responsible for family matters.
  2. Business strategies that claim to be 'family-friendly' are often not profitable, meaning companies may avoid them to keep costs down.
  3. Finding solutions for work-life balance really requires looking beyond just employer policies; it involves understanding broader economic trends and societal changes.

Super Bowl ticket prices are down 60% (but not for the reason you might think)

Huddle Up • 22 implied HN points • 08 Feb 25
🎾 Sports Economics
  1. Super Bowl ticket prices have dropped by 60%, with the cheapest tickets going for $2,600 this year. This is a significant decrease compared to last year's prices.
  2. Despite the NFL's growing popularity, some fans may be experiencing 'Chiefs fatigue' from the team reaching the Super Bowl three times in a row, leading to less interest.
  3. Other factors like the stadium's large capacity and concerns about safety after a recent attack nearby might also be influencing the ticket price drop.

What is Yi Gang trying to say in his 1st interview after retiring from PBoC?

Pekingnology • 71 implied HN points • 06 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Economics
  1. Yi Gang discussed the historical significance of Jiaozi, the first paper money, and its implications for currency policies
  2. He emphasized the importance of competition under constraints for a successful monetary system
  3. Yi Gang highlighted the necessity of establishing and enhancing modern central bank systems to maintain currency stability

Financial Repression Isn't What It Used To Be

European Straits • 10 implied HN points • 25 Jun 25
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Financial repression happens when governments guide savings into projects they choose, even if people could get better returns elsewhere. This is a way for countries to manage their economies during tough times.
  2. In the past, developing countries used financial repression to grow quickly, but now it can signal that advanced economies are facing decline. It's like trying to hold onto past success instead of moving forward.
  3. The decision to use financial repression comes from having too much available money and not enough good places to invest it. It can prevent citizens from making their own financial choices and aims to keep the economy stable.

Fund Frontier Expeditions otherwise just buy the "Magnificent Seven"

State of the Future • 24 implied HN points • 07 Jan 25
💼 Business Economics
  1. Venture capital has changed a lot due to higher interest rates. This makes it harder for startups to get money and has led to a drop in their valuations.
  2. Startups are taking longer to go public now. This means investors are waiting longer to see their returns, which can make venture capital less appealing.
  3. Big tech companies are becoming dominant in AI because they have the money to invest heavily. This creates high barriers for new startups, making it tough for them to compete.

Tesla is a Vocal Opponent of the Right to Repair. Now we know why.

Fight to Repair • 98 implied HN points • 19 Jul 21
💼 Business Economics
  1. Tesla's repair costs can be significantly higher due to limited service options, as seen in a $16,000 vs. $700 repair scenario.
  2. Tesla's reluctance to offer part replacements and focus on assembly replacements can lead to inflated repair costs for consumers.
  3. Tesla's opposition to right to repair laws highlights the importance of independent repair shops for affordable maintenance and repair options.

Five unlikely books to understand how AI transforms the economy

Platforms, AI, and the Economics of BigTech • 8 implied HN points • 03 Aug 25
💼 Business Economics
  1. Understanding AI's impact on the economy requires looking beyond typical AI books. Focus on how technology reshapes industries and organizations instead.
  2. Books that discuss system design, constraints, and structural changes are vital for grasping how new technologies like AI will influence business.
  3. Key insights can come from reading unexpected subjects, like the economics of digital media or the history of shipping containers, which show the broader effects of technology.

Bailout Brink

Three quarks • 128 implied HN points • 14 Mar 23
💰 Finance Economics
  1. The 2008 recession drastically impacted the trajectories and beliefs of different generations, shaping their careers and perspectives on work.
  2. The shift from 20th-century life-work balance to 21st-century always-on freelancing has redefined how we engage with news, videos, and money.
  3. Financial crises like the recession reveal the deep intersection between economy, personal identities, and societal structures, prompting reflections on the role of banks, governments, and personal financial management.

The Heath Ledger guide to AI

Platforms, AI, and the Economics of BigTech • 9 implied HN points • 17 Jul 25
🕹 Technology Economics
  1. The Joker in _The Dark Knight_ actually shapes the whole story, making it about him instead of Batman. This shows how sometimes the unexpected character can drive the main themes of a narrative.
  2. AI's biggest effect isn't about how well it performs tasks but how it changes the systems around us. We need to look at how it helps people work together more efficiently rather than just what jobs it replaces.
  3. When we focus on AI's ability to improve coordination, we see its real potential. It's not just about speeding up tasks but making sure everyone is on the same page, which can transform industries.

"This is pointless"

SatPost by Trung Phan • 132 implied HN points • 25 Feb 23
💼 Business Economics
  1. Persistence and time are crucial in achieving success, like the story of James Dyson's long journey to create the bagless vacuum.
  2. Compounding effort and time can lead to significant achievements, as seen in the success of Jack Butcher's NFT project.
  3. Investing time in a worthwhile endeavor is valuable, as time is a powerful multiplier in achieving success, illustrated by Warren Buffett's success later in life.

Afridigest Executive Brief: Beyond VC - Africa's new era of securitization

Afridigest • 7 implied HN points • 11 Aug 25
💼 Business Economics
  1. There's a new focus in Africa on securitization rather than just relying on venture capital. This means companies are looking for different ways to secure funding and manage risks.
  2. Executives need to stay informed about these new finance trends to adapt their strategies. It's important to understand how these changes affect business opportunities in Africa.
  3. This shift could lead to innovative financial solutions and investments in various sectors across the continent. It might open doors for more diverse economic growth.

Combating Retail Shrinkage with Technology and Social Interventions

Gad’s Newsletter • 29 implied HN points • 18 Nov 24
💼 Business Economics
  1. Retail shrinkage is a big issue caused by theft, damage, or errors, and it frustrates both businesses and honest customers. When retailers put products behind lock and key to prevent theft, it can make shopping hard for people just trying to buy what they need.
  2. Using technology can help reduce shrinkage while keeping customers happy. Retailers can use things like mobile apps or surveillance systems to spot theft, but they also need to make sure shopping remains a good experience.
  3. Understanding people's behavior is key to reducing theft, especially with self-checkout systems. Designing better systems and providing reminders can help prevent accidental theft, making it easier for everyone to shop without issues.

What might have been

America in Crisis • 19 implied HN points • 23 Jun 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics
  1. In an alternate history, balancing the budget and preserving gold reserves could have changed the course of US economic and political history, possibly avoiding events like the Vietnam War.
  2. Maintaining a focus on gold reserves and balanced budgets could have led to a different economic landscape, impacting inflation rates, interest rates, and political ideologies.
  3. The continuation of a New Deal economic system with emphasis on fiscal conservatism could have prevented economic crises, income inequality, and cultural shifts, maintaining stability in wages and social structures.

Target practice

let them eat cake • 279 implied HN points • 16 Aug 19
🍲 Food & Drink Economics
  1. Consider the importance of paying restaurant staff enough to sustain a long-term career, not just a job.
  2. Running a regenerative restaurant that prioritizes staff, community, and environment over purely financial gains is a tantalizing idea with economic and social implications.
  3. The analysis of a hypothetical NYC restaurant suggests that to pay staff fair wages, pricing might need to increase, possibly by at least 20%, to sustain the business model.

ASML earnings, slowing cloud growth, and the Perplexity question

Alex's Personal Blog • 32 implied HN points • 16 Oct 24
💼 Business Economics
  1. ASML did really well in the last quarter, earning more than expected and making a lot of profit. This surprised many investors.
  2. Cloud growth is slowing down, which could be a challenge for tech companies relying on it. It's important to keep an eye on this trend.
  3. There's a legal issue with Perplexity as they were told by The New York Times to stop using their content. This has raised questions about the future of AI and content use.

Lawler: Update on “Is the “Natural” Rate of Interest Back to Pre-Financial Crisis Levels”

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 62 implied HN points • 16 Feb 24
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Existing home sales in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million, showing a 6.3% increase from December and 0.5% from last January.
  2. The estimated 'natural' real rate of interest has shown varying trends, with one measure rising to slightly above 2% for two quarters while another started to move back down.
  3. Economists have noted potential biases in the estimates of the impact of 'other factors' on the 'natural' rate of interest, and some have suggested using TIPS rates as an indicator of market views.

Fire and Ice

The Transcript • 39 implied HN points • 20 Mar 23
💰 Finance Economics
  1. The Fed is facing the challenge of balancing inflation control with supporting the financial system.
  2. The impact of recent events on Silicon Valley Bank is causing uncertainty in the markets.
  3. Consumer spending remains steady amidst the uncertainties in the financial sector.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-November 2024

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 15 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economics
  1. House prices are gradually increasing, with a 4.2% rise year-over-year noted in the Case-Shiller National Index. This suggests the housing market is still active but may slow down soon.
  2. The monthly increase in house prices has been steady, showing growth for 19 consecutive months. This indicates a long-term positive trend in the housing market.
  3. Future outlooks for house prices in 2024 are being discussed, hinting at ongoing changes and developments that could impact buyers and sellers alike.