The hottest Economy Substack posts right now

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China’s new premier Li Qiang appeared to have pushed all the right buttons to project a pro-business and pragmatic governing style.

Wang Xiangwei's Thought of the Day on China • 176 implied HN points • 14 Mar 23
🌍 World Politics Economy
  1. Li Qiang emphasized focus on reviving the economy in the next five years, reassuring the private sector and promising to improve the entrepreneurship environment.
  2. Li Qiang made it clear that his role is to execute plans set out by President Xi Jinping, showing a change from past premier styles.
  3. Li Qiang maintained a sharp focus on reviving the economy during his press conference, dedicating less time to international relations and emphasizing the importance of field research.

Japan Reality Check #7: What has changed?

Japan Optimist • 176 implied HN points • 10 Jul 23
🌍 World Politics Economy
  1. Valuations have changed with earnings and capital returns up, but PE multiples down in Japan.
  2. Ownership dynamics have shifted from domestic to global ownership in Japan's financial economy.
  3. Japan's financial markets reflect a mix of changes and continuities, offering lessons on progress and resilience.

The Transcript Q4 2022 Letter

The Transcript • 399 implied HN points • 03 Apr 23
💰 Finance Economy
  1. The economy is showing strong consumer spending and high inflation, causing uncertainty in monetary policy decisions.
  2. Financial stress alongside economic strength is creating a challenge for the Fed as they monitor inflation and labor market data.
  3. The S&P 500 index earnings are down and the market is at high valuations in comparison to historic norms, presenting a need for price adjustments for balance.
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Rental Market Preview 2024

The Sunday Morning Post • 98 implied HN points • 14 Jan 24
💼 Business Economy
  1. Rents have been increasing but are expected to flatten and possibly decline in 2024 due to a surge in new rental units hitting the market.
  2. Vacancy rates are starting to increase, indicating an evolving rental market tied to new inventory.
  3. Investors should be cautious as margins are expected to get tighter with declining rents, a tough borrowing environment, and tighter lending standards.

⏩ Trump’s 3% growth challenge

Faster, Please! • 274 implied HN points • 25 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economy
  1. Scott Bessent wants to boost the economy by achieving a 3% growth rate, reducing the federal budget deficit, and increasing oil production. This approach is part of a bigger plan for economic improvement.
  2. Historically, the US economy grew at over 3% after World War II, but recent growth has been slower. Bessent’s goal is to restore that higher growth rate.
  3. The challenge for Bessent and Trump is that the current US GDP growth has been a full point less than the historical average this century.

So... When Does The Economy Crash?

OK Doomer • 191 implied HN points • 17 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economy
  1. Many experts are predicting an economic crash, but no one knows exactly when it will happen. People are worried about the potential impact of technology and global events.
  2. A lot of individuals are tied to their investments, making it hard for them to react quickly to market changes. Most people can't just sell off their stocks easily because of employer-based retirement plans.
  3. There’s a mix of genuine concern and opportunism in the market around impending crashes, with some people genuinely preparing and others just trying to sell fear-based products.

Top Links 535 Are long-term jobs disappearing? Air-conditioning's power demands. The sphere in trouble & red necks and red bandanas.

Chartbook • 300 implied HN points • 18 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economy
  1. Long-term jobs in the US are increasingly hard to find. Many people are worried about job security and the future of work.
  2. Air conditioning demands a lot of energy, which is becoming a bigger issue. This raises questions about sustainability and energy consumption.
  3. There are cultural and social topics related to 'red necks' and 'red bandanas'. These discussions explore identity and community in different contexts.

Even "All Time Highs" Feel Shitty

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 26 implied HN points • 12 Nov 25
💰 Finance Economy
  1. The economy might be doing well according to headlines, but many regular people are struggling with debt and financial issues.
  2. Even when the stock market is at record highs, it doesn't reflect the financial realities for everyone, especially on Main Street.
  3. There's a disconnect between how Wall Street perceives success and how everyday Americans are actually feeling.

June Wages and Consumer Spending Disappoint Again

Japan Economy Watch • 159 implied HN points • 10 Aug 23
💰 Finance Economy
  1. Wages in Japan were lower than expected in June, leading to a decrease in real consumer spending. This could impact interest rates and the value of the yen.
  2. Increasing base pay is crucial for long-term financial stability for workers, compared to relying on overtime or bonuses.
  3. The Bank of Japan's policy decisions are influenced by data on wages and inflation, impacting interest rates and the value of the yen.

International Tourism's Lost Year

Vietnam Weekly • 157 implied HN points • 28 Feb 23
🌐 International Economy
  1. Vietnam struggled to attract international tourists, falling short of its targets compared to neighboring countries like Thailand and Singapore.
  2. Domestic tourism in Vietnam, however, saw a significant increase.
  3. Despite its appealing food, landscapes, and cities, Vietnam faced challenges in promoting itself as a tourist destination.

Weird Markets = Warning Sign

Things I Didn't Learn in School • 157 implied HN points • 23 Mar 23
💰 Finance Economy
  1. Take a step back and gain perspective by reading old writings and revisiting past events.
  2. Weird market behaviors like falling bond yields during interest rate hikes and unconnected tech and bank stock movements can be warning signs.
  3. Investors are struggling to price assets amidst inflation, banking crisis, growth slowdown, global conflicts, and AI innovation.

Weekly Top Picks #97

The Algorithmic Bridge • 191 implied HN points • 10 Feb 25
🕹 Technology Economy
  1. Google has released impressive AI models that are both high-quality and affordable. They are competing strongly in the AI space.
  2. OpenAI is developing new AI agents to assist programmers and sales teams, indicating a focus on practical business applications.
  3. Sam Altman highlighted that the intelligence in AI improves at a super-exponential rate, making its economic value increase rapidly.

Exposing the Fraudsters

The Radar • 39 implied HN points • 23 Apr 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economy
  1. Fraud has historically preceded major meltdowns, causing social unrest, economic collapses, and political instability.
  2. Fraud is widespread in everyday life, not just as criminal acts but in various forms of intentional misrepresentation.
  3. Dishonesty and fraud, both large and small, have become normalized in society, but individuals have the power to shift towards honesty and transparency to curb fraudulent behavior.

Endgame #3

The Dollar Endgame • 119 implied HN points • 29 Nov 23
💰 Finance Economy
  1. Japan adjusted its bond yield control policy in an effort to curb interest rates, showing the delicate balance between stimulating the economy and managing debt.
  2. The United States is experiencing increases in national debt and a housing market slowdown due to rising interest rates impacting new home and car sales.
  3. Gold prices have been rising as a safe haven investment, influenced by a weakening dollar and central banks acquiring significant amounts of gold, serving as a potential indicator of future monetary debasement.

Can't Even Agree

Points And Figures • 612 implied HN points • 29 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economy
  1. The political divide in 2024 is expected to escalate due to Democrats and Republicans each having different motives.
  2. Lack of trust and differing approaches on issues like immigration, education, health, free trade, and taxes contribute to the division.
  3. Advocacy for free markets as a way to restore trust, build consensus, and promote personal responsibility.

Fourth Industrial Revolution and End of Empire

Who is Robert Malone • 15 implied HN points • 13 Dec 25
🌍 World Politics Economy
  1. Advances in AI and computing could make human labor economically irrelevant, with growth driven by computational capacity and the owners of that compute gaining outsized power.
  2. The internet and social platforms are fracturing culture into echo chambers and digital tribes, creating communication breakdowns and fragmented realities like a modern Tower of Babel.
  3. Large-scale migration combined with mismanagement, corruption, or excessive empathy can destabilize societies, turning displacement into internal collapse rather than an external invasion.

⤴⤵ Up Wing/Down Wing #23

Faster, Please! • 274 implied HN points • 02 Nov 24
💼 Business Economy
  1. The US economy is doing really well, growing almost 3% this past year. This growth is mainly due to increased productivity and low inflation, making it a strong economy overall.
  2. Advancements in technology have made the US oil and gas industry the most productive in the nation. New methods in drilling and efficiency are helping keep energy prices low and the economy strong.
  3. A new AI app called Death Clock can predict how long you'll live and offer tips to improve your health. This app uses a lot of research to give personalized recommendations for a better, longer life.

"We Once Again Need to Raise More Capital than We Had Imagined": Watching OpenAI Say It Needs a New Structure

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 207 implied HN points • 30 Dec 24
🕹 Technology Economy
  1. OpenAI is looking for more money than they expected, which highlights how important funding is for their progress towards AGI. This means they need to attract investors willing to take risks.
  2. They plan to change their structure to a Public Benefit Corporation, balancing profit with broader social goals. This structure aims to raise capital more effectively while still focusing on their mission.
  3. OpenAI's current success is compared to how Netscape was for the internet. This suggests that OpenAI is leading a new wave of technology and investment in artificial intelligence.

Toronto Budget 2024 (Olivia's Version) drops next week

City Hall Watcher • 78 implied HN points • 26 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economy
  1. Toronto City is seeing a trend where a few large corporations dominate the employment landscape, which could lead to political challenges.
  2. Toronto is working on improving housing development timelines and affordable housing projects to address the growing housing crisis.
  3. City Hall in Toronto is considering implementing new measures like a foreign buyer tax, revamping subsidy programs, and investing in dedicated bus lanes to improve transit infrastructure.

Interview: Entrepreneurship; Japan vs US, Etc.

Japan Economy Watch • 439 implied HN points • 01 Aug 22
💼 Business Economy
  1. Entrepreneurship can be a key factor in reigniting Japan's economy with growing support and initiatives aimed at fostering new startups.
  2. Japan's issues are seen as more solvable compared to the US, with strengths in universal education and healthcare, while the US faces challenges with education and social issues impacting the American dream.
  3. Raising the minimum wage can have complex effects, influencing turnover rates and overall workforce costs, potentially impacting job creation and consumer spending.

Xi Reduces Role of Private Firms, Hurts Innovation

Japan Economy Watch • 139 implied HN points • 26 Sep 23
🌍 World Politics Economy
  1. Xi Jinping's policies of reducing the role of private firms and emphasizing State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) are hurting innovation and economic growth in China.
  2. Under Xi's leadership, China has seen a decrease in high-quality patents, lower productivity in companies, and a dampening of dynamism in the private sector.
  3. By prioritizing SOEs over private companies, Xi is exacerbating the tradeoff between growth and living standards, hindering the potential for increased personal consumption and economic prosperity.

The Best Rabbit Holes of 2025

Creative Destruction • 11 implied HN points • 24 Dec 25
🎭️ Culture Economy
  1. Digital technology and AI are changing how we think and relate to information, often flattening ideas, breaking links between sources, and leaving people feeling mentally dulled or detached from reality.
  2. The coming period will reward friction, resilience, and alternative systems — build community-first, regenerative, and care-focused practices to escape surveillance and extractive power.
  3. Creative reframings and metaphors (like magic realism, communal dreaming, or the ‘everything becomes crab’ idea) give new ways to understand our situation and inspire imaginative, humane paths forward.

The 16th Largest Bank in the United States is No More

The Sunday Morning Post • 137 implied HN points • 12 Mar 23
💰 Finance Economy
  1. Silicon Valley Bank, the 16th largest in the US, was shut down due to bad investments and cash management issues.
  2. The failure caused panic in the banking community, leading to stock value drops and concerns about similar risks in other banks.
  3. The unique situation of Silicon Valley Bank and its impact on the tech sector may not necessarily lead to a widespread banking crisis.

WTHIH? The Bank Run Version of 2023

Philoinvestor • 137 implied HN points • 13 Mar 23
💰 Finance Economy
  1. Silicon Valley Bank faced a liquidity problem due to dropping deposit balances from VC-backed companies.
  2. Traditional banking model of borrowing short and lending long can be fragile.
  3. Forced recapitalization could lead banks to drastic financial losses.

Commercial Real Estate is in Crisis... Where do We Go From Here?

PropTech Future • 137 implied HN points • 17 Apr 23
💼 Business Economy
  1. Commercial Real Estate industry is facing a crisis with low occupancy and leasing activity due to various factors like skyrocketing interest rates.
  2. Adapting to the changing needs of customers is crucial for the Commercial Real Estate industry to thrive and grow amidst challenges.
  3. The future of Commercial Real Estate may involve networks of workspaces tailored to different company needs, facilitated by technologies like booking apps and access control solutions.

The UK’s decision to block the Microsoft / Activision merger is courageous and right

The Counterbalance • 137 implied HN points • 28 Apr 23
💼 Business Economy
  1. The UK's decision to block the Microsoft / Activision merger shows courage and defends against concentrated economic power.
  2. The UK's action signifies a global shift against the dominance of digital tech giants post-Brexit.
  3. Blocking the merger protects UK citizens, businesses, and consumers while promoting a more resilient economy.

Lumiterra’s CBT 2 is LIVE!

Ronin’s Newsletter • 233 implied HN points • 14 Nov 24
🕹 Technology Economy
  1. Lumiterra's CBT 2 is now live, inviting players to download and experience the game immediately.
  2. Players can find gameplay guides to help them understand the game better, especially if they are new to it.
  3. The introduction of LUA and LUAUSD tokens will enhance the in-game economy and rewards.

Groundly's Ground-Rent Grift

Progress and Poverty • 538 implied HN points • 31 Jan 24
💼 Business Economy
  1. Georgists scrutinize speculative investing in land, seeing land rent as unearned income.
  2. Groundly's offer of buying just-the-house and renting the land may seem affordable upfront but comes with hidden costs and responsibilities.
  3. Traditional lenders like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may have challenges financing Groundly-type leasebacks, raising concerns about the viability of the business model.

Dialing Back Restraint

The Transcript • 79 implied HN points • 05 Feb 24
💰 Finance Economy
  1. The Federal Reserve suggested that interest rates may have reached their highest point in this tightening cycle and could start decreasing later this year.
  2. The Fed is cautious about lowering rates too soon and wants to see sustained progress in managing inflation before making any major moves.
  3. Despite some challenges with inflation, the overall economy, especially the job market, remains strong.

The Truth About H-2B Visas

God's Spies by Thomas Neuburger • 196 implied HN points • 31 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economy
  1. H-1B visas are often seen as a way for companies to pay lower wages and keep salaries down for American workers. This creates a situation where employers have more power over employees who depend on these visas.
  2. Many tech companies use H-1B workers to fill jobs, especially during layoffs of American workers, which leads to a feeling of competition and insecurity among those workers.
  3. The system appears to benefit companies financially while putting pressure on both H-1B workers and American employees, leading to questions about fairness and ethics in the job market.

Election Countdown, 258 Days to Go: The New Politics of Place.

Breaking the News • 487 implied HN points • 21 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economy
  1. Place has always been significant in American personal stories and national politics, influencing decisions to stay or go.
  2. Federal policies are beginning to bring more opportunities to historically neglected areas, such as the Rust Belt, by strategically directing investments.
  3. There is a shift towards more planned and effective federal initiatives that focus on boosting local economies and communities, recognizing the importance of place-based growth.